Chapter 3. Case Study analysis - District 22 of Tehran
3.4 Rivew on energy fact and figures in the local context
3.4.1 Urbanization and energy parameters in Iran
During the 20th century, Iran gradually changed from a country dominated by a rural-nomad population to a largely urbanized one. The 1962 reform of agricultural land was a turning point for )ran s gradual transition from an agriculture-based to an oil-based economy as well as the acceleration of rural to urban migration (UNDP & DoE, 2010).
Urbanization continued to increase at a rapid pace even after the Islamic revolution. In 2011 more than 70 % of the population lives in urban areas with a gowing tendency (Statistical Center of Iran, 2011).
Figure 42. Population trends in urban and rural areas in Iran
Source. Statistical Center of Iran, 2011
From 2006 to 2011, the average annual population growth rate in urban areas was 2.14
%, while rural populations shrank by an average rate of -0.63 % (Statistical Center of )ran, . As of , there were , cities Shahr and approximately 96,549 villages Deh or Roosta in )ran ibid. . Predictions by the United Nations indicate an
uninterrupted growth with 86% of the total population of Iran living in urban areas by 2050 (UNICEF, 2012).
Figure 43. Countries and territories urban population projections for 2050
Source. UNICEF, 2012
The growing urban population figures in Iran can be traced back to three factors: the natural population growth, rural-urban migration motivated by comparatively better socio-economic conditions in cities, and changes to the official definition of rural areas, which allowed some former villages to become cities. Although urban-rural differences are an important factor for rural emigration, statistics show that the majority of
migration happens between urban areas. From 1996 to 2006, 30% of migration was of rural origin, whereas the rest was from one city to another (Statistical Center of Iran, 2006). Tehran province in particular has been the primary destination of migrants, absorbing 30% of overall migratory movements within Iran (Pahl-Weber et al, 2013).
3.4.1.1 Energy sources and their consumption share in Iran
Iran has some of the largest oil and natural gas resources in the world. Not surprisingly, oil, petroleum products, and natural gas are the main energy sources in Iran (MoE, 2009). Although the country also has great potential for renewable energies such as solar energy, the current primary renewable energy supply is very low. This leaves room for improvement for the introduction of technologies and policy instruments as a means to stimulate the uptake of renewable sources of energy. Energy statistics show that the total energy consumption in Iran in 2012 added up to 162,620 ktoe. The U.S Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates that, in the past decade, the primary energy consumption in Iran has grown by more than 50% 32. Besides strong economic
32 U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis. (n.d.). Retrieved January 10, 2018, from http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=IR
IRAN
83 M urban Pop 86% Urban
development and improved living standards, demographic growth and urbanization have substantially raised the overall energy demand33.
Figure 44 illustrate energy consumtion by sector. Not surprisingly, the building and transport sectors are the main energy consumers in Iran with approximately 36% and 25% of total consumed energy in 2013 followed by the industry sector (24.5 %).
Figure 44. Relative energy consumption by sector in Iran in 2013
Sector in %
Residential and commercial (building)
35.8
Industry 24.5
Transport 25.3
Agriculture 4
Non-energy use34 10.3
Source. MOE, 2013 (Energy Balances 1987-2013)
Energy consumption in the residential/commercial and transport sectors exhibit the highest share in the overall Iranian energy consumption, consistent with the subsidies received by these sectors. Transport received 42% of the energy subsidies, household 30
%, and industry 13.5% (IEA, 2012). Iranian households use natural gas and oil mainly for heating, cooking, and hot water. Furthermore, lighting and appliances (including cooling systems) are the major components of household electricity use (IEA-WI, 2009). There is a considerable amount of energy waste in the building sector due to inefficient building construction and energy intensive appliances (Farahmandpour et al, 2008). As the sectors with the greatest share of energy consumption, it is therefore crucial to develop policies, strategies and measures for increasing the efficiency of building and transport energy use in Iran.
The energy intensity factor, defined as the ratio of the energy use growth rate to the GDP growth rate, is around 35% higher for Iran compared to the rest of the world for the period 2001-2011 (Moshiri & Lechtenböhmer, 2015). The primary energy supply and overall consumption have been increasing rather smoothly during the 70s and the early 80s. However, the rates of increase in consumption have risen substaitnially since then.
33 Inter3, Institut for Resource Management. (n.d.). Retrieved January 10, 2018, from
http://www.inter3.de/en/projects/details/article/potenziale-fuer-erneuerbare-energien-im-iran-und-moeglichkeiten-der-deutsch-iranischen-zusammenarbei.html
34 This covers those fuels that are used as raw materials in the different sectors and are not consumed as a fuel or transformed into another fuel.
Figure 45 shows the share of different energy carriers in the total energy consumption in Iran.
Figure 45. Share of energy carriers in total final consumption in Iran 1987- 2013
Sector in %
Petroleum products 35.3
Natural gas 53.9
Coal 0.4
Combustible renewables 0.7
Electricity 9.8
Source. MOE, 2013 (Energy Balances 1987-2013)
The use of natural gas for primary energy supply increased from around 20% in 1990 to over 50% in 2009. While the decrease in use of oil and petroleum reduces CO2 emissions, the high level of natural gas consumption counteracts this trend and produces
considerable CO2 emissions itself (MoE, 2006). The following figure shows the consumption of oil products, natural gas, and electricity by different sectors. The
transport sector is the top runner in terms of oil consumption followed by buildings and the industry. When it comes to natural gas and electricity, most energy is consumed by households and the Industry sector (MoE, 2013)
Figure 46. Energy carrier consumption by sector in 2013
Petrolium products Natural gas Electricity
Residential, public and commercial 12%
Transport 62%
Industry 8%
Agriculture 5%
Non-energy use 13%
Residential, public and commercial 49%
Transport 6%
Industry 6%
Agriculture 1%
Non-energy use 10%
Residential, public and commercial 47%
Transport 0%
Industry 35%
Agriculture 16%
Non-energy use 2%
Source. MOE, 2013 (Energy Balances 1987-2013)
Finally, pertinent data furthermore shows an overall increasing trend in energy
consumption as well as a high level of energy inefficiency in Iran across sectors. Energy use per-capita has been increasing on average by 4% annually between 2001 and 2010.
The energy intensity35 has also been increasing on average by 1% in the same period, indicating a declining trend in the efficiency of energy use. As a point of comparison:
energy intensity in Iran is 1.8 times higher than the EU average , and greater than the MENA (Middle East and Northern Africa) and low-income countries (Moshiri &
Lechtenböhmer, 2015).
3.4.1.2 Emissions in Iran
)ran s large fossil resources and increasing consumption thereof has put in the country among the world s highest CO2 emitting countries. Emissions increased rapidly in the 1960s, slowed slightly during the eight-year war period with Iraq, and have climbed steadily since the 1990s (Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, 2012). Most CO2 is emmited by commercial and public services (28%), followed by power generation plants (27%), the transport sector (24%) and manufacturing industries (19%). The transport sector s prominent role regarding CO2 emissions stems mostly from the excessive use of private cars in combination with inadequate/inefficient public transport in urban and rural areas.
Table 20. Total emmissions by sector in Iran (2010 & 2030)
Sector 2010 2030
CO2 CO NOX SO2 CO2 CO NOX SO2
Household, commercial, public (%) 28 0.8 6 4 24 1 5 4
Manufacturing industry (%) 19 3 9 13 29 5 10 19
Agriculture (%) 2 0.2 3 4 1.4 0.1 2 3
Transportation (%) 24 94 47 29 21 91.9 61 48
Power generation plants (%) 27 2 34 50 24.6 2 22 26
Total emission (million tons) 737 8.25 1.84 1.43 1032 14.5 4.61 2.68
Source. MoE, 2010; Central Bank of Iran Economic Data, 2014; Moshiri & Lechtenböhmer, 2015 Table 21. Emmissions share by energy type in Iran (2010 & 2030)
Sector 2010 2030
CO2 CO NOX SO2 CO2 CO NOX SO2
Kerosene 3.6 0.1 0.0 0.8 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
Gas Oil 22 2.8 42.5 53.2 18 3 36.5 67.5
LPG 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Fuel Oil 13.1 1.0 10 46 10.5 0.7 7.5 32.3
Natural gas 49 1.9 30.4 0.0 59.5 3 40 0.0
Gasoline 10.7 94 17 0.1 9.6 93.1 16 0.2
CNG 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total emission (million tons) 537 8.25 1.84 1.43 1032 14.5 4.61 2.68
Source. MoE, 2010; Central Bank of Iran Economic Data, 2014; Moshiri & Lechtenböhmer, 2015
3.4.1.3 Climate conditions and trends
According to the Köppen climatic classification, there are three prevailing climate zones in Iran. The dominant climate type is arid and semi-arid climate, covering 81% of the country. 17% of the country is of temperate or mesothermal climate and 2% exhibits
35 Defined as the ratio of the energy use growth rate to the GDP growth rate.
characteristic of acontinental-microclimate zone (UNDP & DoE, 2010). In most Iranian cities the coldest month is January (with a monthly average temperature between - ˚C and ˚C and the warmest is July with a monthly average temperature between ˚C and ˚C. )n most regions, the highest precipitation occurs in winter with there falling almost barely rain in summer. Notwithstanding, there existing considerable regional differences in precipitation, with the average annual total ranging from 2,000 mm along the Caspian Sea to some areas in the central desert with almost no rainfall (UNDP & DoE, 2010).
In the coming decades, however, it is likely that Iran will fall prey to the severe effects of climate change. The changes are projected for the period between 2010 and 2039 (UNDP
& DoE, 2010). Changing climate conditions, in turn, will likely have an observable impact on the level of energy consumption. For instance, the increasing number of hot days will raise the demand for cooling, resulting in increased energy use and, thus, higher CO2
emissions.
Figure 47. Climate map of Iran
Source. Peel et al, 2007
3.4.2 Energy and emission parameters in Tehran