The US remains the most capable operator of submarines around the world, and along with China is the major player in undersea warfare in the seas of Asia and the Western Pacific. It operates an all-nuclear submarine fleet, including 14 nuclear ballistic missile submarines, four converted guided missile submarines (SSGNs) and 55 attack submarines. The highly capable Virginia class SSN is currently in production. Around two-thirds of the US Navy’s submarine force falls under Pacific Command. It is an extremely capable force and will continue to be the most capable one in the region for the foreseeable future. While an increase in the build rate of Virginia class boats has recently been approved, fiscal constraints on US Government spending are having an effect on the submarine force, and the current 30-year procurement plan would see SSN numbers drop to the low 40s late next decade. A decline in numbers could potentially place significant pressure on US undersea dominance in Asia as the quality and quantity of Chinese boats increases.
Vietnam
Vietnam has taken early steps in building up a serious subsurface capability, ordering six new Russian-built Kilo class SSKs. Two have arrived and a third is slated to arrive before the end of 2014. The first operational testing in Vietnamese waters began earlier this year, and although it’s potentially a significant capability, it will probably take some time for Vietnam to develop the doctrine and experience to make the best of its new platforms. The purchase is probably driven both by an increasingly tense relationship with China and by the increase in submarine capacity of other countries in the region.
ASPI STRATEGY Table 1: Regional submarine capability
Country Current fleet Future plans
Australia 6 Collins class conventional boats A future submarine class, likely to be 6 or 12 conventional boats, and to be built in Australia.
Bangladesh – Will reportedly receive two Ming (Romeo) class
submarines from China by 2019.
China 3–4 SSBNs, around half-a-dozen SSNs, and dozens of SSKs
Significant continued investment in all aspects of China’s submarine force is expected.
India 9 Kilo class and 4 Shishumar class SSKs, 1 SSN and 1 SSBN
1 or more leased Russian SSNs, first of 6 Indian built Scorpenes, possibly with 2 more off-the-shelf boats delivered.
Indonesia 2 1970s-vintage German boats 3 South Korean Chang Bogo class boats, and possible purchase of Kilo class.
japan 6 Soryu class and 11 Oyashio class, both types indigenously designed and built SSKs
5 more planned within the next 10 years.
Malaysia 2 Scorpene class SSKs Malaysia will focus on consolidating its current capability for the foreseeable future.
North Korea 23 very dated Russian boats and a large number of coastal attack submarines
There’s no immediate prospect for the improvement of North Korea’s submarine capability.
Pakistan 2 Hashmat and 3 Khalid class conventional submarines Possibility of purchasing 6 submarines from China, probably Yuan class.
Russiaa 10+ ballistic missile boats, around 15 nuclear boats and 20 Kilo class
At least 4 new SSBNs, 4 new SSNs, new SSKs and significant fleet modernisation.
Singapore 6 Swedish submarines: 4 older Sjöormen class and 2 newer Västergötland class
Has ordered 2 Type 218SG submarines from Germany for delivery by 2020.
South Korea 4 Type 214, 9 Type 209 conventional attack submarines 5 more Type 214s to be delivered before 2020, and construction to begin on an indigenous class.
Taiwan 2 vintage Dutch SSKs Some suggestion of US help in building submarines
with Taiwan.
USAa 14 SSBNs, 4 converted SSGNs and 59 SSNs, many able to launch cruise missiles
Steady production of the Virginia class SSNs to continue.
Construction of a new class of SSBN to begin by 2021.
Vietnam 2 new-build modern Kilo class conventional boats 4 more to be delivered in the next few years.
a Russian and American submarine fleets operate much more broadly than the East Asian / Indian Ocean regions. Only a proportion of their fleets will be in the Indo-Pacific region at any given time.
Others
There’s significant interest in submarine capability from other countries in Asia.
With the help of China, Pakistan is seeking to further build a sophisticated conventional submarine capability.
Islamabad is reportedly in talks to purchase six submarines from China, in addition to the five conventional French boats that the Pakistan Navy currently operates.
As an indicator of future interest, and amid murmurings about a purchase of two Kilo class SSKs from Russia, a small number of myanmar Navy personnel reportedly began submarine warfare training in Pakistan last year.
In 2011, Thailand announced plans to purchase two small (500-tonne) German Type 206A attack submarines, but the deal fell through in early 2014. The Royal Thai Navy has continued with the construction of a submarine base in anticipation of future purchases.
There are suggestions that the Philippine Navy is also interested in purchasing submarines before the end of the decade, and bangladesh is reported to have signed a deal to buy two vintage conventional submarines from China.
north Korea, for its part, continues to operate a large number of small or outdated submarines, and won’t have the resources available for any significant investment in its submarine capability in the near future.
Notes
1 http://fas.org/blogs/security/2014/04/chinassbnfleet/
2 http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2013/12/07/ri-looks-russia-submarines-with-multi-role-missile-systems.html 3 http://thediplomat.com/2014/04/us-to-help-taiwan-build-attack-submarines/
About the author
Harry White is an Analyst working across ASPI’s full research program.