UNCED 1992: AGENDA 21

Growth and Distribution of the World’s Population

The AGENDA 21 action program, whose aims in-clude a tolerable population growth and promotion of sustainable settlement structures, and the so-called Rio Declaration were adopted during the 1992 Con-ference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro.

In view of the complex issues and global signifi-cance of the Rio Declaration, it is not surprising that the principles it contains are formulated in a both re-served and non-binding fashion. For instance, human beings are entitled to a healthy and productive life in harmony with nature (Principle 1), developing coun-tries should receive preferential treatment (Principle 2), states shall cooperate in the spirit of global part-nership (Principle 7) and an internalization of exter-nal costs should be striven for at natioexter-nal level (Prin-ciple 16). In this form the prin(Prin-ciples can be regarded more as ideal solutions lacking any force. Only the third principle of the Rio Declaration stands out from the others by virtue of its demand that the right to development be fulfilled so that the developmen-tal and environmendevelopmen-tal needs of present and future generations can be equitably met (Principle 3).

85 Migration B 4.1.3

7.42 and more 6.36 - 7.42 5.30 - 6.36 4.24 - 5.30 3.18 - 4.24 2.12 - 3.18 1.06 - 2.12 0.00 - 1.06

Class boundaries in percent Buenos Aires (12.9 Mio.)

Rio de Janeiro (12.2 Mio.)

Dhaka (11.5 Mio.)

Shanghai (17.4 Mio.) Sao Paulo (22.6 Mio.)

Beijing (14.4 Mio.) Seoul (12.9 Mio.) Cairo (10.8 Mio.) Bombay (18.1 Mio.)

Delhi (11.7 Mio.) Calcutta (12.7 Mio.) Djakarta (13.4 Mio.)

Tokyo (27.9 Mio.) Osaka (10.6 Mio.) Mexico City (16.2 Mio.) Lagos (13.5 Mio.)

Karachi (11.9 Mio.) Manila (12.6 Mio.)

NewYork (16.6 Mio.) Los Angeles (13.2 Mio.) Figure 10 Urbanization rates 1990-1995 and largest cities in the year 2000. Source:DGVN,1992 and own calculations

87 UNCED 1992: AGENDA 21 B 4.2.1

BOX 19

Case Study of Rwanda

International news reports usually describe the civil war in Rwanda as an escalation of ethnic con-flicts between the Bahutu and Batutsi tribes. The tribalistic argument does, in fact, appear plausible in view of the various ethnic groups in Rwanda. In addition to the Bahutu and Batutsi, Rwanda’s population consists of five other tribes who, how-ever, have been drastically reduced in number in some cases by the systematic mass murders of re-cent months and years. A historical perspective also nurtures the presumption that ethno-nation-alistic claims and unreconciled resentments alone triggered the military conflict.

The centuries of suppression of the Bahutu (roughly 85% of the population in Rwanda) by the Batutsi did not end until the revolution in 1959, which forced hundreds of thousands to flee to Uganda in the north. A second revolution in 1973 then appeared to cement the dominance of the Bahutu. Since then the regime under Presi-dent Habyarimana has ruled over the fate of the central African state, which has the highest popu-lation density on the continent, 285 inhabitants per km2. Nepotism, corruption, regionalism, per-secution and suppression of opposition forces have become part of daily politics since that time, thus inevitably provoking resistance movements on the part of minorities. A civil war started smol-dering in Rwanda again in October 1990. Troops from neighboring Uganda invaded northern Rwanda. The Inkotanyi, as the army of invaders is called, fought to repatriate refugees who had to leave the country as victims of the 1959 revolution and later conflicts in the name of the “Front Patri-otique Rwandais” (FPR, the political arm of this rebel movement).

The invading troops were, indeed, recruited from the refugees mentioned above, some of whom had been living in Uganda for decades and a large number of whom had been trained in the Ugandan army. However, it would be wrong to claim that the attackers were only Batutsis and that none were Bahutus (Mayr, 1991).

To this extent, the view in favor of a purely tri-balistic conflict cannot be upheld. The rivaling parties possibly use the “ethnic gambit” only to distract people from other causes of the strife. In fact, the Bahutu and Batutsi speak the same lan-guage and there are no linguistic indications of an

alienation of the two tribes. The Bahutu and Ba-tutsi share the same culture, such as concerning the upbringing of children, construction of houses, livestock breeding, farming or religious beliefs (Mayr, 1991). Furthermore, they share the same settlement region so that there is no geographic-ethnic demarcation. It must also be pointed out that besides pure Batutsi and Bahutu clans, who by the way have common ancestors, mixed clans composed of both Bahutus and Batutsis also exist.

A third of the two ethnic groups is not able to ver-ify their tribal descent today.Assuming that tribal-ism is only a secondary cause of the military clash, there remains the question as to the primary fac-tors of a conflict that turned every second Rwan-dan into a migrant. Rwanda, Africa’s third small-est country, has an area of 26,338 km2, corre-sponding to that of the German state of Hessen.

Food supply for its rapidly growing population (growth rate of 3.4%) is proving to be the domi-nant development problem. Constant overexploi-tation of the soil by cultivating subsistence prod-ucts and basic foodstuffs as well as extensive live-stock breeding combined with the clearing of fo-rests to obtain fuel wood in recent years have led to increasing soil erosion and a dramatic deteri-oration of soil fertility.The geographically isolated location is also a disadvantage for further devel-opment of this inland country. All trade in com-modities must be carried out at high transport costs via the ports of Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) and Mombasa (Kenya). The subsistence sector is characterized by low area productivity and old production methods. The demand for meat and dairy products cannot be met through domestic production. A high illiteracy rate, a high mortality rate for children, a low life expectancy and ex-tremely poor basic medical care are indications of the precarious social situation in Rwanda.

The interplay of the ecological conditions de-scribed above can be interpreted as the actual source of social tensions. Those who lose their set-tlement areas as a result of woodland being clea-red in Gishwati, for example, are forced to secure their livelihood somewhere else in the country.

Such a situation may finally develop into a conflict that escalates under the guise of tribalism and, as happened in Rwanda, induce flows of refugees of a magnitude of 3 million people, thus threatening sustainable development both within and outside of the country’s borders.

The key statistical data concerning the present and future scope and orientation of the migration

88 B 4 Growth and Distribution of the World’s Population

movements vary substantially, depending on the source of the data.According to nearly all surveys, the total number of refugees is estimated to be half the population of the central African state.

However, statements regarding the intranational distribution and international direction of migra-tions differ significantly from one another.

Fig. 11 is based on an overall view of the migra-tion flows. It makes no claim to being complete,

but it does illustrate the considerable magnitude of these migrations. In view of the fact that the ba-sic data for this figure diverges greatly in some ca-ses, it is necessary to have a set of instruments that permit the calculation of precise migration statis-tics and forecasts. Both the Rio Declaration and AGENDA 21 revealed the substantial need for clarity in this area.

Zaire

Goma

Uganda

Tansania

Burundi Bukavo

Rwanda Kigali Lake Kiwu

Ruhengeri

Benako 350,000

since 1959

350,000 since 1990

350,000 since 1959

500,000 since 1959 300,000

since 1959

100,000 since 1990 100,000 in 1994 1,000,000 in 1994

Figure 11

Refugee flows to and from Rwanda since 1959.

Source: WBGU based on various data sources

In AGENDA 21, by contrast, an entire chapter is devoted to this issue. One of the major aims of this chapter, entitled “Demographic dynamics and sus-tainability”, is to show ways of researching and dis-seminating specialized knowledge on the interrela-tionships between population growth and sustain-able development. Moreover, the international com-munity wishes to harmonize and expand population policy so that population growth can be checked and a rapid demographic transition can be carried out on this basis.

According to AGENDA 21, the key elements of a successful population policy include combating pov-4.2.1.1

Population Development

At first it is surprising that only one of the 27 prin-ciples in the Rio Declaration (UNCED: Principle 8) focuses on demographic development as a key prob-lem for sustainable development (WBGU, 1993).

This principle calls for appropriate demographic pol-icies as a basic prerequisite for achieving sustainable development and a higher quality of life. Otherwise there are no references to demographic development in the Rio Declaration.

erty, adequate medical care, guaranteeing basic needs, improving the social position of women and developing educational systems (AGENDA 21, 5).

However, AGENDA 21 does not state how these – undoubtedly justified – demands are to be imple-mented. Similar weaknesses are revealed, particu-larly in the third focal point of Chapter 5, which calls for an implementation of population policy measures within the framework of other political areas, such as health, science, research and economics.

Thus realization of the demographic transition re-mains the most clearly stated demand in AGENDA 21 with regard to population development. The syn-ergies of this issue in connection with environmental concerns and the necessity of a rapid decline in the birth rate are underlined by linking demographic as-pects with ecological demands such as: “They should combine environmental concerns and population is-sues within a holistic view of development” (AGEN-DA 21, 5.16), and the formulation of aims: “Popula-tion programmes should be implemented along with natural resource management and development pro-grammes at the local level that will ensure sustain-able use of natural resources, improve the quality of life of the people and enhance environmental qual-ity” (AGENDA 21, 5.43).

In summary, an evaluation of the success of the UNCED three years afterwards, particularly from the point of view of population, cannot provide reli-able findings. In some segments the demographic trends and trend corrections are progressing in ac-cordance with the Rio Declaration and AGENDA 21; however, a direct connection between UNCED and the actual development cannot be demonstrated on that basis. There are many indications that devel-opment programs launched prior to 1992 are show-ing initial success today.

4.2.1.2 Urbanization

Cities are highly complex organizational struc-tures of human coexistence. They are the result and basis for developments with a wide variety of tasks and social patterns that reflect the diversity of the in-dividual cultural regions. In addition, cities are the lo-cations of industry, business, institutions and service enterprises that supply the surrounding area.

“Healthy” urban growth, however, requires that all municipal activities, such as in culture, school and transportation, housing, energy and water supply as well as disposal (sewage, waste), are coordinated with each other. In view of the continuing process of ur-banization, it is questionable whether larger and lar-ger cities can remain functional and it is unclear

whether there is an optimum or maximum magni-tude of urban development. In some cases expansion is limited by the available settlement space, the trans-portation infrastructure and water supply as well as by other supply problems (Vöppel, 1970).

AGENDA 21 takes a position on “urbanization”

in Chapter 7, entitled “Promoting sustainable human settlement development”. A distinction is made bet-ween industrialized and developing countries with respect to global environmental changes. Whereas the metropolises of the industrialized world are pri-marily characterized by a high and thus environmen-tally harmful level of consumption, more and more raw materials, energy and economic growth are re-quired for cities in the developing countries in order to cope with the elementary economic and social problems of urban regions there.

One reason why the standard of living in the cities of most developing countries is declining is a lack of necessary investments in such areas as infrastructure because crises have to be averted in other sectors.

Government expenditures for housing and social se-curity in low income countries, for instance, were roughly 5.6% of the total budget on an annual aver-age (UNCED, 1992; the corresponding figure for the OECD state was 39.3% on average; UNDP, 1991). In addition, there is little financial support on the part of international organizations for cities in developing countries: only approx. 1% of the UN expenditures in 1988 was earmarked for settlement purposes.

On the other hand, the existing cooperation re-garding settlement systems has triggered substantial public and private follow-up investment. Every US$

spent on technical cooperation by the UNDP in 1988 led to follow-up investments amounting to about 120 US$: a result that was not achieved in any other UNDP sector (UNCED, 1992).

On the basis of these positive incentive effects that were triggered by technical cooperation with the UNDP, the main objective of AGENDA 21 is to fur-ther promote public private partnerships (coopera-tion between public and private actors) so as to achieve progress in the areas of settlement manage-ment, regional planning, infrastructure planning and industrialization.

The hope here is that the urban regions in which 60% of the world’s gross national product is earned will be in a position, given appropriate management, to expand capacity and increase productivity so as to improve the standard of living of the population in accordance with sustainable development (AGEN-DA 21, 7.15).

The Council, however, is very skeptical about this hope regarding the development opportunities of ur-ban agglomerations because of the uncontrolled na-ture of urban growth. The Council examined in detail

89 Urbanization B 4.2.1.2

the problems related to current urban developments in its 1994 annual report.The “São Paulo Syndrome”, for instance, pointed out the threat to urban struc-tures and indicated the possible collapse of many megacities.

The dangers stemming from the rapid population increase are presumably underestimated in AGEN-DA 21. This may be due to lack of the necessary in-formation, especially since the following demand was expressed: “Socio-demographic information should be developed in a suitable format for interfacing with physical, biological and socioeconomic data. Com-patible spatial and temporal scales, cross-country and time-series information, as well as global behavioural indicators should be developed, learning from local communities’ perceptions and attitudes.” (AGEN-DA 21, 5.10). Moreover, “better model ling capabil-ities should be developed, identifying the range of possible outcomes of current human activities, espe-cially the interrelated impact of demographic trends and factors, per capita resource use and wealth distri-bution, as well as the major migration flows that may be expected with increasing climatic events and cu-mulative environmental change that may destroy people’s local livelihoods.” (AGENDA 21, 5.9)

As long as the highly inadequate state of research into interrelationships continues, i.e. as a systematic analysis of global human-environment relationships, the risk of succumbing to radical misjudgments or playing down key problems related to global envi-ronmental changes will increase.

Urbanization in Africa is primarily a consequence of increasing poverty and less the result of develop-ment. If even the satisfaction of basic human needs cannot be guaranteed in Africa’s cities today, then it is impossible to postulate (as was done in AGENDA 21) that the conditions for sustainable development have been met. Even the promotion of intermediate cities (AGENDA 21, 7.19) or public private partner-ships (AGENDA 21, 7.21), as aimed at in the action program, does not take into account the real devel-opment trends and the extent of the global environ-mental changes they cause.This situation points to in-formation deficits that have to be eliminated by prompting research into the specific interrelation-ships in the global human-environment system.

4.2.1.3 Migration

The United Nations described the interlinkage between migration and global environmental chan-ges in its 1993 population report.The latter states that

“the gradual destruction of the environment is the main cause of population movements” (DGVN,

1993). Astonishingly, intranational or international migration is not a focus of attention in either the Rio Declaration or in AGENDA 21. One can only guess at the reasons why this issue is ignored in both docu-ments. One possible reason is that migration is fre-quently viewed as a barometer for changing social, economic and political conditions or as the result of individual or family-related decisions and was thus not an immediate subject of discussion at the Confer-ence on Environment and Development. It is also conceivable that the international community delib-erately fixed its range of competence in Rio de Ja-neiro to a list of issues that ruled out overlaps with migration-related fields of research of other institu-tions. From the council’s point of view, in any case, this situation obviously represents a significant short-coming which both points to deficits with regard to a systematic, analytical understanding of the global en-vironment and demonstrates the substantial need for research.

4.2.2

State, NGOs and Churches

After a relatively long phase of discreet treatment the causes and effects of the rapid population growth have again become the subject of intensive and open public discussion. This increasing attention to ques-tions of population development may provide a sig-nificant contribution to the shaping of public aware-ness and, in the end, bring about a change in genera-tive behavior. The following will take a look at the basic attitudes and opportunities offered by non-ernmental organizations (NGOs), churches and gov-ernment bodies in this connection.

There is now extensive agreement among govern-mental organizations, non-governgovern-mental organiza-tions and churches at the international and national level that development and population policy are not separate elements but have to be closely interlinked.

The Council of the Protestant Church in Germany, for instance, demanded in 1984 that family planning be integrated into economic and social development and that it must take into consideration people’s re-ligious, cultural and social characteristics (EKD, 1993). The Catholic Church in Germany has also dis-cussed population problems and their consequences in detail (Kommission Weltkirche, 1993).

The German Council of Women emphasizes in this connection that women’s and family policy is a task sui generis and warns against using these political fields as demographically oriented instruments. The Council of Women criticizes the fact that the contri-bution of the German federal government to the International Population Conference (see below)

does not contain a separate “approach to women’s is-sues”. Rather, women were only indirectly men-tioned as “mothers and pregnant women”, as “labor market reserve” and as “recipients of development aid”. The Council of Women condemns the fact that development aid is expressly tied to population pro-grams so that the one-sided aim of support to women was for women to have fewer or no children. Popula-tion policy should not “refer and be restricted to wo-men as objects of the reproductory function, [...] but must require the joint and holistic responsibility of men and women” (Deutsche Stiftung Weltbevölke-rung, 1994). German non-governmental organiza-tions unanimously agree that major importance should be attached to improvement of the social po-sition of women (Box 20).

Seven (German) NGOs, including the German Foundation for World Population, the German World Famine Relief Organization and the German Society for the United Nations, will be organized under a sin-gle umbrella organization in the future so as to lend greater force to their demands with respect to

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