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SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK

Im Dokument SEAMLESS PREDICTION OF THE EARTH SYSTEM: (Seite 163-167)

CHAPTER 8. LAND-ATMOSPHERE INTERACTIONS AND THE WATER CYCLE

8.5 SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK

Coupling, variability and memory are identified as the ingredients of land-atmosphere interactions that can contribute to enhanced predictability in Earth system models. Progress in the

understanding and simulation of key processes in these areas would be facilitated by an improved and expanded observational capability to characterize these properties for different biomes, land-use situations and climate regimes. We are on the verge of having sufficient observational data to begin to address these problems, although scale differences persist. Furthermore, a consistent set of diagnostics and metrics that can highlight the difference between the model and the real-world will further advance the potential for enhanced land surface contribution to prediction skill.

The memory inherent in land surface water reservoirs such as soil, snow and lakes can extend the quality of medium range prediction beyond the classic deterministic limits, especially in the

presence of significant pre-existing anomalies. However, this ingredient alone is not sufficient without the other two components (realistic coupling and sufficient variability), which demands

evaluating models over extensive periods of time such as those covered by modern era reanalyses and the period of continuous satellite remote sensing. Predictability can be converted to forecast skill with high-quality land surface initial conditions consistent with the land surface model (cf.

Koster et al. 2009). Innovations need to be incorporated into operational prediction models in a timely fashion. We are at an exciting time when major progress in exploiting the predictability in land- atmosphere feedbacks is likely in the coming decade.

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Im Dokument SEAMLESS PREDICTION OF THE EARTH SYSTEM: (Seite 163-167)