CHAPTER 2. OBSERVATIONS FOR GLOBAL TO CONVECTIVE SCALE MODELS
2.5 SUMMARY AND FUTURE PROSPECTS
Observations continue to be a critical input to NWP models both for assimilation, to define the initial state of the atmosphere/surface, and for verification of the model predictions in close to real-time. Both NWP and climate models are increasingly being compared to observations both to validate the physical processes represented in the models and also to study long term trend analyses in the model climatology. The verification of NWP models is increasingly based on a range of different observation types to validate a wider range of weather parameters (e.g.
rainfall, aerosol optical depth) more relevant to the general public. For climate models metrics are being developed to assess them using observational datasets (Hurk et. al., 2012).
In situ observations are facing a new challenge to provide good coverage and resolution for the new generation of kilometre scale models. This will inevitably involve making use of some form of “crowd sourced” data of lower quality together with higher quality reference networks as described in this paper. Data assimilation systems will need to respond to this challenge.
Modern technology such as smart phones and increasingly instrumented vehicles are providing the platforms for these new mesonets. In parallel accurate ground based
observational techniques are being developed such as lidars and zenith viewing radiometers to provide reference observations. The maintenance of the existing network of SYNOPs and radiosondes is proving challenging for some countries due to increasing financial constraints. A co-ordinated effort is required to maintain some of the more remote stations where few other
observations are available. A global coverage of high quality island radiosonde stations is required to help provide a reference which can determine biases seen in the satellite radiance measurements. The reference GRUAN stations are being set up to contribute to the network for ‘calibrating’ satellite radiance data. The GRUAN sondes and stable (calibrated) radiance measurements from space are complementary so instruments, such as hyperspectral sounders, can serve as a ‘single travelling reference instrument’ for GRUAN sondes. In situ observations in the oceans are expanding with new innovative measurements such as instrumented marine mammals and gliders starting to feed into the operational observations networks.
Polar orbiting satellites with their global coverage now provide the main impact in NWP models with the high resolution infrared sounders (e.g. IASI and CrIS) and microwave temperature sounder (AMSU, ATMS) top of atmosphere radiances providing the most impact in the troposphere
controlling the synoptic scale features. Agreement has now been reached whereby 3 polar orbiters in well-spaced orbital planes will be provided by the USA, Europe and China ensuring a uniform temporal coverage. The GNSS-RO bending angle measurements are also providing a good reference observation of the atmospheric temperature in the upper troposphere and stratosphere between 300-50 hPa (Collard and Healy, 2003). There is potential to retrieve low level humidity and surface pressure information from these data but this remains to be proven in an operational context. The framework for the future operational GNSS-RO constellation of satellites is still being debated by space agencies and commercial companies willing to offer a service to the
Meteorological Services. GNSS reflectometry is a new area of research where measuring the reflection of GNSS signals from the sea surface can potentially provide information about the sea state for use in ocean and atmosphere models. This would help to fill the gaps in the temporal coverage of active scatterometer ocean surface wind measurements which are currently only available from the European polar orbiter. These all-weather ocean wind observations could help to define the location of tropical cyclones and the centres of mid-latitude depressions. Finally, the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) mission is being
proposed to provide a better estimate of the uncertainties in satellite climate data records for monitoring of the Earth system (Anderson et. al., 2004).
Geostationary satellites provide frequently updated imagery used for nowcasting applications, except at high latitudes. The radiances from the imagers are used in NWP models, at both global and regional scales, and also provide a suite of products that are used for a variety of different applications (e.g. AMVs, fog, cloud properties, instability indices, volcanic ash and snow cover). More advanced imagers with more spectral channels are now being launched (Himawari-8, GOES-R, FY-4) to extend the range of products from geostationary imagery and improve their accuracy. AMVs are an important observation for global and regional NWP models and work on improving their height assignment is increasing their impact. Within the next decade high resolution infrared sounders are planned from geostationary orbit to provide more detailed vertical information of the humidity and winds with frequent sampling. To
improve the coverage of satellite observations over the high latitudes of the Arctic a proposal to fly satellites in highly elliptical orbits has been proposed.
Over the past 40 years observations of the Earth’s atmosphere and surface have become more accurate and, thanks to increasing amounts of satellite data, provide much improved coverage of our planet. The next 40 years will see a consolidation of the global observing system with the conventional reference observations better co-ordinated worldwide and in parallel new innovative measurements reaching maturity by being assimilated into NWP models. The constellation of current satellites will be maintained both for NWP and climate monitoring. Improvements in technology will allow some measurements to be made with much smaller instruments allowing their deployment on small satellites reducing costs. Conversely new instruments will be developed to improve and expand the measurements made from space which will be exploited to better monitor the Earth-Atmosphere system in the future.
2.6 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The notes taken by the young scientists during the Open Science Conference, in Montreal during the Observations and Data Assimilation Theme Sessions helped to contribute and clarify various aspects of this paper. Also ECMWF is acknowledged for providing Figure 4.
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