Specific Cases

Vegetables: SIS publishes production quantities of vegetables, but not product specific area and yield data. Product-specific area data is obtained by SIS on a national level but is not available at regional level. In order to depict regional competition for area with crops and fruit in TURKSIM, regional area and yield data is generated by calculating national yield data from national area and production quantities, and assuming yield to be similar across regions. Regional area is calculated from regional quantity data divided by national yield data.

Fruit: For fruit, SIS publishes only numbers of trees and supply quantities, not area and yield data. Estimates of the national average number of trees per ha are

obtained from MARA and are assumed to be similar across regions. Table 7.1 shows the number of trees per ha.

Table 7.1: Number of Fruit Trees Product Number of trees/ha Olives

Oranges, lemons, mandarins Apples

Hazelnuts

100 300 150 300 Source: Interviews at MARA.

In order to consider competition for area with crops and vegetables in TURKSIM, product specific regional area and yield data is calculated by dividing the regional number of trees by the average national number of trees per ha and by dividing the regional production quantity by the resulting regional area.

Durum wheat: Area and yield data for wheat are published by SIS for total wheat, including common and durum wheat. Based on interviews with officials of the Turkish Grain Board, the assumption is made that 20 percent of Turkey's total wheat area is allocated to durum wheat uniformly across all regions, and yield is assumed to be as high for durum as for common wheat.

Sugar: Sugar beet yield reported by SIS is transformed into sugar using an extraction factor of 12 percent based on FAO (2002b).

Tomato paste: Production of tomato paste is not published by SIS. Production data therefore comes from USDA (various issues) and is broadly in line with data published by TOMATO NEWS (2002). 22,000 tons of estimated home production are added to the USDA data (TOMATO NEWS 10/94). As shown in Table 7.2 tomato paste production is highly volatile.

Table 7.2: Tomato Paste Production Quantities and Prices, 1997-2001 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 USDA production estimate (tons) 185,000 310,000 320,000 265,000 170,000 Estimated home production 22,000 22,000 22,000 22,000 22,000 Total 207,000 332,000 342,000 287,000 192,000 Sources: Tomato News (1994); USDA (GAIN Reports, various issues); own calculations.

As the average of tomato paste production in the TURKSIM base period 1997 to 1999 is close to the average of the longer period 1997 to 2001, it is taken as base quantity for TURKSIM. The yield of paste tomatoes is assumed to equal the yield of table tomatoes and the area for paste tomatoes is calculated by assuming an extraction factor of 1 kg paste out of 5.5 kg tomatoes, which is reported by USDA (various issues). 80 percent of tomato paste area is allocated to the Aegean agricultural region (USDA GAIN Report TU1028, 19.05.2001, p. 2).

The other 20 percent are allocated to the other regions according to their shares in total tomato area. The regional area for table tomatoes is calculated as the residual of total regional tomato area minus the area for paste production.

Olive oil: Production of olive oil is not published by SIS. Production data therefore comes from the IOOC (2002) and is broadly in line with data published by USDA (various issues). Due to the high volatility of production (see Table 7.3) a four year average of the years 1997 to 2000 is used for calibration of production (as well as consumption and trade) in TURKSIM.

Table 7.3: Olive Oil Production Quantities, 1997-2001

1997 1998 1999 2000 Av. 97/00 2001 IOOC production estimate

(tons, marketing year)

40,000 170,000 70,000 190,000 117,500 60,000 Sources: IOOC (2002); own calculations.

The yield of olives for oil is assumed to equal the yield of table olives, and the area for olive oil is calculated by assuming an extraction factor of 1 kg oil out of 6 kg olives. FAO (2002b) reports an extraction factor of 7 in its commodity balances, but experts from the industry in Turkey report a factor of 5. National area for oil olives is allocated to regions according to their area shares in total olive area. The regional area for table olives is calculated as the residual of total regional olive area minus the area for oil production.

Sultanas: Production of sultanas is not published by SIS. Production data therefore comes

from GAIN Reports of the USDA (various issues). Due to data availability an average of the years 1999 to 2000 was taken for calibration. The yield of sultana grapes is assumed to equal the yield of table grapes and the area for sultana grapes is calculated by assuming an extraction factor of 1 kg sultanas out of 4.5 kg grapes. National area for sultanas is allocated completely to the Aegean region.⁵⁴

Red meat: Data published by SIS for red meat underestimates total production as only data of municipal slaughterhouses and estimates for slaughtering for religious festivals are included. This underestimation is especially significant in the case of sheep meat, for which more than half of total production falls outside the SIS statistics. Therefore FAO (2002a) estimates of total production are used.

Indigenous meat production is calculated by adding the meat equivalent of live animals exported minus the meat equivalent of live animals imported.

Production is allocated to agricultural regions by applying the shares resulting from provincial production data reported by SIS.

Poultry and eggs: For poultry meat and eggs estimates of BESD-BIR, the Association of Turkish Poultry Producers are used, which are about 20 percent above official data for poultry and about 20 percent below official data for eggs.

Production is allocated to agricultural regions by applying the shares resulting from SIS reported provincial production data.