The EU is the most important single trading partner of Turkey in total trade as well as in agricultural trade. Table 3.1 presents an overview of Turkish and EU external trade for the years 1989/90 and 1995 to 2001. Trade data reported is averaged for two calendar years, except single year data for 1995. This is because 1995 is the only pre-CU year of the full EU-15; the CU came into force January 1996. Before 1995, the EU had 12 member states. Therefore trade data for those years is less suitable for depicting a CU effect, as an increase in trade from 1996 on may also be due to the inclusion of the three new member states.
Table 3.1: Trade Overview of Turkey and the EU (bill. €)
1989/90 1995 1996/97 1998/99 2000/01
Turkey
Total exports 10.4 16.5 20.8 25.2 32.5
of which to EU 55.4% 46.0% 53.1% 56.9% 58.0%
Total imports 15.9 27.3 38.7 40.6 52.6
of which from EU 41.9% 32.5% 52.4% 52.6% 47.6%
Agricultural exports 2.5 3.3 4.1 3.8 4.3 of which to EU 38.0% 47.8% 44.1% 51.2% 48.7%
Agricultural imports 1.6 2.7 3.3 2.8 3.0 of which from EU 29.0% 30.3% 27.5% 27.6% 25.6%
EU
Total exports 414.3 569.0 671.8 746.7 959.8 of which to Turkey 1.6% 2.4% 3.0% 2.9% 2.6%
Total imports 454.6 544.7 624.8 743.6 1,026.8 of which from Turkey 1.3% 1.7% 1.8% 1.9% 1.8%
Agricultural exports 33.7 43.4 48.0 49.0 55.7 of which to Turkey 1.4% 1.9% 1.9% 1.6% 1.4%
Agricultural imports 38.6 46.3 49.5 50.2 55.5 of which from Turkey 2.5% 3.4% 3.7% 3.9% 3.7%
Sources: SIS, External Trade Statistics (various issues); Eurostat, Intra- and Extra-EU Trade (various issues); FAO (2002a); own calculations.
Table 3.1 shows that Turkey's total exports tripled in the period from 1989/90 to 2000/01 from €10.4 billion to more than €32 billion. Over the entire period
Turkey had a trade deficit increasing from €5.5 billion in 1989/90 to more than
€20 billion in 2000/01. About 46 to 58 percent of Turkey's total exports went to the EU and 33 to 53 percent of Turkey's total imports came from the EU. As for Turkish imports, where one would expect any effects from the CU in industrial products to be realized in 1996, such effects are not very distinct. On the one hand, the share of EU imports in total Turkish imports increased from about 33 percent in 1995 to more than 52 percent in the period 1996 to 1999. On the other hand, the share of the EU was already at 42 percent in 1989/90 (prior to Austria, Sweden, and Finland becoming EU members) and was only 48 percent in 2000/01.
Turkey has almost doubled its agricultural exports between 1989/90 and 2000/01 from €2.5 to €4.3 billion.11 In all those years, Turkey had an agricultural trade surplus which varied between €0.6 billion in 1995 and €1.3 billion in 2000/01. The share of the EU in total agricultural trade of Turkey varied between 38 and 51 percent of Turkish exports and 26 to 30 percent of Turkish imports. Overall Turkey had a clear surplus in agricultural trade with the EU over the whole period.
The EU has more than doubled its total exports between 1989/90 and 2000/01 from €414 billion in 1989/90 to almost €960 billion in 2000/01. On average the EU had a balanced trade position with a slight export surplus in some years and an import deficit in others. Between 1.6 and 3 percent of EU exports went to Turkey and at the importing side Turkey's share varied between 1.3 and 1.9 percent.
The EU has also increased its agricultural exports and imports during the period presented here, but not as much as total trade. The EU had a declining deficit in agricultural trade between 1989/90 and 1998/99 and, for the first time in the period covered, a slight agricultural trade surplus in 2000/01. About 1.4 to 1.9 percent of EU agricultural exports went to Turkey and at the importing side, Turkey covered a share between 2.5 and 3.9 percent of agricultural imports.
Table 3.2 presents an overview of the composition of total Turkish agricultural imports as well as those originating from the EU.
11 Agricultural trade is defined throughout this chapter to include CN-Chapters 01-24, except Chapter 03 (fish), and CN-positions 41.01-03, 51.01-03, 52.01-03 (hides and skins, wool and cotton).
Table 3.2: Composition of Turkish Agricultural Imports by Origin (percent)
1989/90 1995 1996/97 1998/99 2000/01
Total EU Total EU Total EU Total EU Total EU Meat & live animals 3.8 4.4 11.3 5.9 2.4 6.6 0.8 1.8 1.0 2.5 Dairy and eggs 0.7 1.2 0.9 3.0 0.8 2.5 1.1 3.4 1.0 2.1 Vegetables 1.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.5 1.0 1.2 2.9 0.5
Fruit 0.6 0.5 1.3 0.6 1.4 0.3 2.1 0.6 1.7 0.7
Cereals & cereal. prod. 30.2 33.3 12.7 6.8 18.1 9.5 14.5 10.6 10.8 9.2 Oilseeds 2.1 1.5 6.4 4.7 6.8 2.8 9.4 3.7 7.4 4.3 Fats & oils 16.2 14.3 17.2 11.5 12.6 6.8 14.5 11.4 11.5 7.6 Sugars & confectionery 7.4 19.2 5.4 3.0 3.8 8.1 0.4 1.5 0.4 1.2 Prep. of fruit & veg. 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.5 1.0 Beverages & spirits 0.4 4.7 0.4 10.6 0.8 6.1 0.5 6.9 0.5 7.8 Tobacco 14.5 1.8 4.3 4.7 7.9 7.9 9.2 11.0 10.7 8.5 Hides and skins 6.0 6.7 12.5 21.5 14.9 16.8 7.1 10.2 8.5 14.5 Cotton lint 6.2 3.0 10.3 5.9 11.3 12.1 14.6 11.7 19.9 17.5 Other products 10.7 8.7 16.1 20.3 18.0 19.5 24.2 25.3 23.2 22.7
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Sources: SIS External Trade Statistics (various issues); Eurostat Intra- and Extra-EU Trade (various issues); FAO (2002a); own calculations.
In 1989/90, cereals and cereal products, fats and oils, and tobacco were the most important agricultural import products covering more than 60 percent of total Turkish agricultural imports. The composition of imports from the EU was close to the composition of total imports with the main differences being a much lower share of tobacco and a much higher share of beverages and spirits, and sugar and confectionery.
By 2000/01 Turkey's total agricultural imports were more diverse as the share of the product group "other products" increased from 11 to about 23 percent, and the importance of cereals and cereal products as well as fats and oils declined significantly. The import share of cotton increased heavily reflecting the growing Turkish textile industry, which accounts for a large share of Turkish industrial exports. The composition of agricultural imports from the EU was still close to that of total agricultural imports, but shares of beverages and spirits as well as hides and skins were significantly higher than in total agricultural imports.
Table 3.3 presents an overview of the composition of total agricultural exports of Turkey as well as those destined for the EU.
Table 3.3: Composition of Turkish Agricultural Exports by Destination (percent)
1989/90 1995 1996/97 1998/99 2000/01
Total EU Total EU Total EU Total EU Total EU Meat & live animals 8.6 0.3 3.4 0.1 2.0 0.2 1.1 0.1 1.0 0.2 Dairy and eggs 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.2 1.1 0.5 1.2 0.4 0.8 0.3 Vegetables 11.3 11.9 8.6 8.0 7.6 7.6 3.5 5.7 8.2 6.8 Fruit 27.6 41.9 28.0 45.3 24.7 44.5 24.6 44.1 28.5 44.9 Cereals & cereal. prod. 4.8 1.6 10.9 2.1 12.3 1.5 12.2 2.5 10.1 3.5 Oilseeds 1.4 2.7 1.5 2.0 1.0 1.9 1.4 2.0 1.2 1.8 Fats & oils 6.8 0.4 10.7 0.7 7.7 2.7 8.2 3.8 5.0 2.5 Sugars & confectionery 0.6 0.4 4.3 0.5 4.6 0.4 5.1 0.6 7.0 1.0 Prep. of fruit & veg. 10.1 15.4 12.0 20.6 11.9 19.4 14.3 19.8 12.9 18.9 Beverages & spirits 0.4 0.6 2.0 0.7 1.8 0.8 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.2 Tobacco 15.4 6.4 8.6 6.2 13.3 5.7 13.9 6.2 11.8 6.4 Hides and skins 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.7 0.1 Cotton lint 5.3 8.4 0.9 3.9 2.5 4.2 2.5 3.4 1.6 2.9 Other products 7.3 9.7 8.6 9.4 9.4 10.6 10.4 10.2 10.1 9.6 Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Sources: SIS, External Trade Statistics (various issues); Eurostat, Intra- and Extra-EU Trade (various issues); FAO (2002a); own calculations.
At the end of the eighties, Turkey's most important export products were fruit and vegetables (fresh as well as processed), and tobacco which together covered more than 65 percent of total Turkish agricultural exports. The composition of exports to the EU was quite similar to that of total agricultural exports with the main difference being a significantly lower share of tobacco and higher shares of fruit and processed fruit and vegetables with the result that fruit and vegetables alone covered almost 70 percent of Turkish agricultural exports to the EU.
In 2000/01 the composition of Turkish agricultural exports was only slightly different from that in 1989/90. Main differences were a higher share of cereals and cereal products and lower shares of cotton lint, reflecting increasing domestic processing demand, and meat and live animals, reflecting the import ban on red meat (see Section 2.2.4). The share of fruit and vegetable exports in
total agricultural exports to the EU increased slightly compared to the 1989/90 situation, exceeding 70 percent.
3.2 Agricultural Trade Preferences between Turkey and the European