5. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
5.5. Scenarios and perspectives for private land conservation
5.5.1. Scenarios for conservation on private lands
In this chapter, an approach to describe the scenarios for development of conservation on private land is given. To this end, first of all, the observed trends in the development of private land conservation must be analysed in order to have a starting point for drawing the scenarios.
The establishment of the so-called “New Forestry Law” in 1997 gave the legal framework for the recent movement of private conservation in Bolivia (Choquehuanca 2004). However, only in the past four years a significant increase in the number of private reserves has been noticed (see figure 52). This increase is without doubt due to the proprietors’ interest for showing legal land-use in the ongoing land tenure process carried out by the Bolivian governments. As mentioned in chapter 2.3.1., private reserves created until 2003 respond to dispersed independent initiatives, therefore, one may expect the same rate of growth in the creation of private reserves in the following years, but it will be limited to holdings with land titles, of which there are very few in the studied area.
In 2000, non-governmental organisations began explorative projects to systematically support private conservation looking at conservation criteria. These actors are playing and will play a decisive role for the future of private conservation removing the obstacles to this topic.
To draw scenarios, the main factors identified in this study should be considered. On the one hand, there are the following constraints: (a) the unsolved land property situation, (b) the lack of effective incentives, (c) the bureaucratic procedures, (d) weak enforcement of environmental laws and (d) land policies that indirectly push landowners towards the conversion of natural ecosystems; on the other hand, positive factors exist as well such as (a)
the good conservation status, (b) the low population density of the zone and (c) the owners’
necessity of land use options in a place with still few opportunities of development.
Figure 52: Chronological increase of Natural Heritage Private Reserves in Bolivia
Source: Bolivian Forestry Superintendence. Annual reports 2000 – 2003
In the following paragraphs, the mentioned factors are weighed up in order to present the scenarios taking a short-term and long-term time horizon.
5.5.1.1. Scenarios in the short time
Among the constraints limiting the growth of private conservation, the land titling problem and the lack of effective incentives will hardly be solved in the short term, therefore positive and negative scenarios will be determined by the management of the other factors. Thus, a small increase in the number of private reserves and more conversion of forest is expected if the capacity of governmental institutions for enforcing the environmental laws is not supported and the non-governmental institutions stop their efforts (the worst case). The opposite of that will create a favourable scenario for conservation. This model underlines why coordinate actions between civil society and governments are important, since neither the unique actions of conservationists nor the governmental initiatives will be effective.
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Year
Number of NHPR
Table 46: Scenarios of private land conservation in the short-term
Scenarios Positive conditions Negative conditions Trends The worst
case Existence of forest regulations Existence of land use regulations Process of land tenure revision
Land tenure conflicts Lack of effective incentives Bureaucratic procedures Weak enforcement of laws NGOs stop project of private land conservation
Little creation of private reserves
Conversion of forest to show legal use of land Fragmentation of Chiquitano forest The best
case
Existence of forest regulations Existence of land use regulations Ongoing process of land tenure revision
Significant investment of NGOs in private conservation in order to preserve land property rights
5.5.1.2. Scenarios in the long term
The creation of effective incentives, adjustment in land and environmental policies and the design of specific legislation as well as a long-term work of environmental NGOs will promote the inclusion of private conservation initiatives as a part of a successful strategy of conservation and so that the fragmentation of the Chiquitano Forest will be prevented. This favourable scenario would be sustainable only if the stakeholders in the region would allow a fear land distribution.
Table 47: Scenarios of private land conservation in the long-term
Scenarios Positive conditions Negative conditions Trends The worst
case
Existence of forest regulations Existence of land use regulations Process of land tenure revision concluded
Land tenure conflicts
Lack of effective incentives Bureaucratic procedures Weak enforcement of laws NGOs do not support private land conservation
case Existence and effective enforcement of Forest regulations Land use regulations
Specific legislation for private conservation
Long-term NGOs’ work in private conservation
Private reserves are a part of a successful strategy of conservation
Finally, it must be said that these scenarios are not absolute, because land-use and conservation is determined by diverse factors, thus the approach presented in this chapter can be discussed, critiqued and improved, but it is expected this approach leads to the best choice of the most urgent measures to promote private conservation.
5.5.2. Private conservation opportunities among the social conflicts of Bolivia
In 2003, the worst violent conflict in the democratic period of Bolivia has occurred due to discontent and demand of social justice (see box 2). Bolivia has been a democracy since 1982, but since then, inequalities of wealth have increased and there has been no reduction in poverty. The attempt to export gas to Mexico and the USA, without a process of consulting and information triggered the conflict mainly because the impoverished indigenous majority of the people of Bolivia felt that the trade and the economy are run for the benefit of a small wealthy elite.
These conflicts have marked a change in the traditional manner of political conduct. As a result, a revision of the structural basis of the country was begun and in addition, new ways to incorporate social participation were included in the legal rules of the state - these are the referendum and the constitutional assembly.
Insecurity in all activities has characterized the Bolivian situation after this conflict, but slowly the democratic institutions of Bolivia have regained control. In July 2004, a referendum established the majority decision in favour of the gas export and after that a preparatory process for the constitutional assembly was undertaken. This will change the Bolivian constitution towards an improvement of the living condition of the citizens.
Box 2. Short description of the conflicts in Bolivia since 2003
2003 February - More than 30 people were killed in violent protests against proposed income taxes. President Sanchez de Lozada withdraws the proposal.
2003 September/October - 80 people were killed and hundreds injured in protests fuelled by government plans to export natural gas via Chile. President Sanchez de Lozada resigns under the pressure of the protests. His successor is Carlos Mesa.
2004 July - Early results of the referendum on the export of gas suggest that voters back greater state involvement in the industry and approve the export of the resource.
Source: BBC online 2004
Under these circumstances, biodiversity conservation policies will likely be affected by these winds of change; in particular because of two social aspirations: fair land distributions and a strong tendency to political decentralisation.
A new and improved political system is expected after the change of the Bolivian constitution, especially because, for the first time in the history of Bolivia a priority is given to the democratic participation of indigenous people and citizens. This breaks the political monopoly of the political parties.
Whatever changes will be made in the environmental policies of Bolivia, it will be fundamental that the majority of the decision-makers have adequate information about the importance of conservation and the concept of priority areas. For this reason it is of utmost importance to open mechanisms of communication and information. Conservationists`
institutions and researches must prepare solid arguments and new tools of negotiation to integrate conservation principles in the new policies with social responsibility.
The security of land property rights, the respect for conservation and incentives for the protection of wildlife are main principles to improve private land conservation, but they can be hard to achieve under such a high poverty rate as in Bolivia (68%). Therefore, the expected changes in the political system may enhance the conditions for a direct participation of the people in conservation.