19Ѳ5):11.
39. By 1994, Western Europe—the EU in particular—was the leading trading partner for all the East European states, accounting for one-third to more than one-half o f the region's trade turnover. In addition, three-quarters o f all foreign direct investment in the region came from Western Europe, more than one-half from EU countries.
40. On the vulnerability o f state economies in a liberal international system, see Barry Buzan,
People, States, and Fear
(Chapel H ill, N orth Carolina:University o f North Carolina Press, 1983), pp. 141-49. See also E ric Herring,
“ International Security and Democratization in Eastern Europe,״ in Pridham, Herring, and Sanford (eds.),
Building Democracy?
pp. 92-95.41. Interview w ith Prime M inister Gyula Horn,
Kossuth Radio Network,
8 July 1995, in FBIS: EEU (10 July 1995):13.42.
Financial Times
(20 Februaiy 1996), p. 2; M T I, 29 and 30 March 1995, in FBIS: EEU (31 March 1995):7-8.43. For a discussion o f the history and premises o f security studies, see David A. Baldwin, “ Security Studies and the End o f the Cold War,״
World Politics,
48 (1) (October 1995):117-41.44. This is the main point o f Richard U llm an’s article, “ R edefining Security,״ in Sean Lynn-Jones and Steven E. M iller,
Global Dangers: Changing Dimensions o f International Security
, (Cambridge: Massachusetts Institute o f Technology Press, 1995). This article was originally published inInternational Security
in 1983.45. See, for example, Seyom Brown, “ W orld Interests and the Changing Dimensions o f Security,״ in Michael T. Klare and Daniel C. Thomas (eds.),
World Security: Challenges fo r a New Century
(New York: St. M artin's Press, 1994), pp. 10-26; Jessica Tuchman Matthews, “ Redefining National Security,״ in Steven L. Spiegel and David J. Pervin (eds.),At Issue: Politics in the World A rena%
(New York: St. M artin's Press, 1994), pp. 458-70; David Forsythe,“ Human Rights in a Post-Cold War W orld,״ in Spiegel and Pervin (eds.),
A t Issue
, pp. 417-30; Thomas Homer-Dixon, “ On the Threshold: Environmental Changes as Causes o f Acute C onflict," in Lynn-Jones and M ille r (eds.);Global Dangers
; Dennis Pirages, “ Demographic Change and Ecological Insecurity,״ in Klare and Thomas (eds.),World Security,
pp. 314-31.46. Robert Jervis,
Perception and Misperception in International Politics
(Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton U niversity Press, 1976); Buzan,People
,States, and Fear
, especially chapters 1 and 8.47. F. W. Carter and David Tumock (eds.),
Environmental Problems in Eastern Europe
(New York: Routledge, 1993); F. Stephen Larrabee, “ Down and Out in Warsaw and Budapest,״International Security
, 16 (4) (spring 1992):533־;Judith Toth, “ Humanitarian Security and Involuntary M igration in Europe,״ in Dunay, Kardos, and Williams (eds.),
New Forms o f Security
, pp. 150-65.48. Dunay, “ Debunking Certain Myths,״ p. 22.
49. D uring 1990-94, according to Peter W allensteen and M argareta Sollenberg, there were thirty-four conflicts on territory the authors define as be- ing part o f Europe. Excluding those taking place in the Caucasus and those emerging from the disintegration o f Yugoslavia, three others took place in what has traditionally been defined as the European part o f the Soviet Union. None
were interstate wars. See Wallensteen and Sollenberg, “A fter the Cold War:
Strategies in Europe, 1989-1991
(Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press, 1993), chs. 6-11.59.
Uj Magyarorszag
(5 January 1996), in FBIS: EEU (17 January 1996):22.60.
Roainiä Liberi
(3 September 1994).61. On this “constructivist approach,״״ see Alexander Wendt, “ Anarchy Is What States Make o f It,”
International Organization
, 46 (2) (1992):391-425; and Alexander W endt, “Collective Identity Formation and the International State,”American Political Science Review
88 (2) (1994):384-96. The question o f identity has recently made a strong comeback both in security studies and the broader study o f international relations. See Peter Katzenstein, “Alternative Perspectives on National Security,”Items
[Social Science Research Council] 49 (4) (1995):89- 93; and Yosef Lapid and Friederich Kratochwil (eds.),The Return of Culture and Identity in IR Theory,
(Boulder, Colorado: Lynne Rienner, 1996).62. McIntosh
et al., The New European Security Architecture,
pp. 14-16.63. Discussing the Polish elections that returned a le ft alliance to power, Kenneth Chan points out, “ Polish society is no longer divided prim arily along a strict post-Solidarity versus ex-communist line. Indeed, the socioeconomic cleav- age has become more relevant than other divides for explaining what happened in the 1993 election.” See Kenneth Ка-Lok Chan, “ Poland at the Crossroads:
The 1993 General Elections,”
Europe-Asia Studies
, 47 (1) (1995): 123-46. On Hungary, see R udolf Andorka, “ Hungary: Disenchantment A fte r Transition,”The World Today
(December 1994):233-37. See also Vera Tolz, “ Russia's Parliamentary Elections: What Happened and Why,”RFE/RL Research Report
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00063378
(14 January 1994):l-8.
64. Ken Jowitt, "Dizzy with Democracy,”
Problems o f Post-Communism
, 43 (1) (1996):4.65. M ilica Z. Bookman,
Economic Decline and Nationalism in the Balkans
(New York: St. Martin's Press, 1994), pp. 6-8.66. "Interview w ith Polish Foreign M inister Władsław Bartoszewski,״
Cologne Deutschlandfunk Network
, 2 July 1995, in FBIS: EEU (3 July 1995), p. 24.67. See, for example, the statement by Czech president Václav Havel in an interview w ith
Der Spiegel
(13 February 1995), in FBIS: EEU (15 February 1995):3; and the article by Romanian defense m inister Cheorghe Tinea,"Securing a Democratic Romania: No Veto on Our Choice,״
Security Dialogue
, 26 (2) (June 1995): 147-51.68. See the interview w ith Deputy Prime M inister Aleksander Łuczak,
Polska Zbrojna
(6-8 October 1995), in FBIS: EEU (18 October 1995):56; C hief o f General S taff Tadeusz W ilecki, "The Defense Cannot W ait,״Polska Zbrojna
(9 October 1995), in FBIS: EEU (12 October 1995):4447־; and the interview with Polish president Lech Wałęśa,L'Informazione
[Rome] (18 May 1994), in FBIS:EEU (19 May 1994):15.
69. Interview w ith Petr Pavlik, Institute o f International Relations, Prague, 15 January 1996; interview w ith V ladim ir Handl, In stitu te o f International Relations, Prague, 16 January 1996.
70. Interview w ith Romanian president Ion Iliescu,
Vocea Romanici
(2 November 1995), in FBIS: EEU (9 November 1995):43; interview w ith Defense M inister Gheorghe Tinea,Vocea Romanici
(1 March 1995), in FBIS:EEU (7 March 1995):28-31;
Rompres
(23 A pril 1994), in FBIS: EEU (26 A pril 1994):2-3.71.
Ziua
(18 December 1995), in FBIS: EEU (28 December 1995):51. On the opposition o f the Communist Party o f Bohemia and Moravia in the Czech Repubuc, see CTK, October 26, 1995, in FBIS: EEU (27 October 1995):20; and (7 July 1994), in FBIS: EEU (8 July 1994):6.72.
Narodna Obroda
(18 October 1995), in FBIS: EEU (23 October 1995):14.73. Bruce Russett,
Grasping the Democratic Peace: Principles fo r a Post- Cold War World
(Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1993).74. Edward D. Mansfield and Jack Snyder, “ Dem ocratization and the Danger o f War,״
International Security
20 (1) (1995):538־. Aggregate results also show a higher incidence o f war for “ autocratizing״ states, which suggests that regime change itself is related to the incidence o f war.75. The aggregate data on which Mansfield and Snyder—and in fact most o f the global studies o f war—rely end in the mid-1980s and thus do not include post- cold war Europe. For a discussion o f the "ancient hatred״ argument, see Katherine Verdery, “ Nationalism and National Sentim ent in Post-Socialist Romania,״
Slavic Review
, 52 (2) (1993):179-203. For critiques o f the Mansfield and Snyder work and their response, see "Dem ocratization and the Danger o f War,״International Security
, 20 (4) (1996):176-207.76. Russett,
Grasping the Democratic Peace
, pp. 92-93.77. The charge against the IM F was made by István Csurka, at the tim e a leader in the Hungarian Democratic Forum. See
Nepszadbadsag
(27 August 1992), in FBIS: EEU (3 September 1992):9.34 Ronald H. Linden
78.
Uj Magyarorszag
(13 November 1995), in FBIS: EEU (17 November 1995): 13.79. “ Interview w ith Hungarian Foreign M inister László Kovács,” Magyar H irlap (11 March 1995), in FBIS: EEU (23 March 1995):14.
80. In 1989 just over 2,400 people were stopped at Polish borders. In 1992 the number was more than 32,000. Henryk Szlajfer, “ A View o f Central and East European Security from Warsaw,” in Barry,
The Search for Peace,
p. 170.81. See, for example, Leah D. Wedmore, “The Political Costs o f Mochovce,”
Transition
(23 June 1995):46*50.82. See
Magyar Hirlap
(2 December 1994) in FBIS: EEU (12 December 1994):10.Theofanis Stavrou and John Lampe - 978-3-95479-686-1
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