Results: Smooth (non-parametric) effects

Appendices A-D provide results of the smooth effects in our model for both male and female children (and infants) for the PDHS and the PRHFPS. For the male and female children (Appendix A, figure 2.1), we observe that asset index has an overall decreasing pattern (more visible in case of female children) in both DHS and PRHFPS, however, the (mother’s) health seeking behaviour (hsb) index has a clear positive effect for male children in the PDHS. In all other cases, the effect has not a unique pattern. We can say that better socio-economic conditions (captured by the asset index) has a favourable effect on the mortality of children, especially for the female children whereas in one particular case (male children in the PDHS); we can conclude that positive health seeking behaviour of the mother contributes to reduced mortality. The positive health seeking behaviour of mother’s in case of male children may be due to various reasons. One may argue that, during pregnancy, male children are more heavier, and thus more vulnerable

as compared to female children, and thus the mother would be more likely to have frequent antenatal visits, tetanus injection, be assisted at birth by some trained health assistant and perhaps would like the delivery to take place in a hospital. As the health seeking behaviour index captures the mother’s pre-delivery health behaviour, so in the absence of, and access to, a sex determining technology (Ultrasound), one cannot assume that the gender bias my be playing any effective role in such situation.

Figure 2.2 (Appendix B) provides the nonparametric (smooth) effects of the asset index (ai) and the (mother’s) health seeking behaviour (hsb) index for male and female children above one year of age in the two surveys PDHS and PRHFPS. As before, we can see that the there is a clear declining pattern of asset index for female children in comparison to male children, whereas the effect of (mother’s) health seeking behaviour index is visibly declining for male children in both PDHS and PRHFPS. Hence we can say, as before, that female children comparatively fare well in well-off household whereas mother’s health seeking behaviour is mainly positive in case of male children.

Figure 2.3 (Appendix C) provides the results for the nonparametric (smooth) effects of our model for the male and female infants for both PDHS and PRHFPS. We observe that the only clearly visible effect is the declining pattern of Asset Index for both male and female infants for the PRHFPS dataset. In case of PDHS, we observe that the (mother’s) health seeking behaviour has a slightly decreasing pattern for male infants. We can conclude that better economic conditions of the household do play a favourable role on the reduced mortality of infants and this fact is more clearly visible in case of PRHFPS dataset.

Figure 2.4 (Appendix D) provides results for the baseline effect of our model for male and female children as well as infants for the two surveys. We observe that the effects are mostly uneven decreasing functions thereby indicating some sort of age heaping at certain ages like 6, 12, 24, and 36 months. The exceptions are the effects for infants where (except that for male infants in the PRHFPS) the effects are linear and smoothly declining. These effects are apparently unexpected. However, we can interpret these as a constantly declining baseline effect over the whole time axis (that is, from birth to first birthday).

2.5 Conclusions

Present study was carried out to examine the change in patterns of gender differentials in mortality in Pakistan over a period of ten years. Datasets from two standard surveys, namely PDHS 1990-91 and PRHFPS 2000-01, were analyzed using Bayesian structured hazard regression (based on mixed model methodology). Models were fitted for infant, child and overall mortality and for each sex separately, using the freeware software BayesX. Results indicate that although the mortality levels have dropped in the ten year period, the overall pattern of gender differentials remains almost unchanged. Notable exceptions being the higher mortality associated with higher age of the mother and low mortality in urban areas for the data in the PRHFPPS 200-01 as compared to that of PDHS 1990-91. Further, we note that mother’s education now has a more significant impact on the mortality reduction of her children and this effect is more dominant for the girl child. This perhaps indicate that with the passage of time, improved access to education by the mother has brought significant improvement in the mortality of children, in particular, the girl child.

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2.7 Appendix A Female Children (DHS)

Male Children (DHS)

Figure B2. 1 Smooth effects (all children)

Female Children (PRHFPS)

Male Children (PRHFPS)

2.8 Appendix B