Results: fixed and smooth effects for children 1-3 years of age

Tables A4 through A6 in Appendix A contain the results for the fixed effects in the models for overall, female and male children (aged 1-3 years) respectively.

Table A4 indicates a positive sign for the variable gender which shows excess female mortality as compared to male children. The result is, however, statistically insignificant.

The table also indicates that higher age of the mother, long birth interval (>24 months) and full vaccination coverage significantly reduce mortality. Moreover, larger household

size contributes to reduction of mortality. The mortality of children is higher in all three regions (Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan) as compared to N.W.F.P. (the reference region).

Mortality is significantly lower in rural areas as compared to urban areas. Further, we see that secondary or higher education of mother significantly reduces mortality of children.

We observe, once more, that the threshold education level of mother is necessary for the positive effect on mortality.

Using this fact that the sign of the variable gender is positive (indicating excess mortality for the female children as compared to the male children) we further look at the marginal effects of the other covariates by considering the results from fixed effects from models for female and male children separately in the tables A5 and A6 respectively. From the tables, it is clear that higher age of mother, a large preceding birth interval (>24 months) and full vaccination coverage are conducive for the survival of the children. We observe that large birth interval and being fully vaccinated significantly contribute to survival of children whereas higher age of the mother significantly reduces male child mortality but not that of female child. Mortality is higher in all the three regions (as compared to N.W.F.P.). Further we observe that female mortality is significantly higher in Punjab and Baluchistan. The mortality of both male and female children is lower in rural areas as compared to urban areas. One of the important results is that mother’s education of secondary or higher level has a significantly positive effect on the mortality of female children. We observe that while mother’s education will have a positive effect on the survival of the girl child if she is educated at secondary or higher level (perhaps giving her more say in household decision making process), the education of mother has a positive effect on mortality of male child even when the mother is having at least primary education (the effect is, though, statistically insignificant). This indicates that even a nominally educated mother (at the primary level) will have more positive attitude towards the health needs of her male child. This, again, indicates that under limited financial resources, the mother would be more inclined towards fulfilling the health needs of her male child as compared to female child due to strong cultural phenomenon of son preference. Moreover, comparing the marginal effects of variables for male and female children, we observe that the effects of long birth interval and vaccinations are higher for male children as compared to female children whereas the effect of mother’s higher age

(at the birth of her child) is almost similar for both male and female children. On the other hand, the effects of higher mortality in Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan are higher for female children as compared to male children.

The smooth effects are given in Appendix B (figures B1.3 and B1.4). The graphs for the baseline hazard (represented by the variable period) exhibit identical pattern to those obtained for children aged 0-3 years, with heaping, notably, at ages 12, 18, 24 and 36 indicating high mortality at these ages. The graphs for the smooth effect of asset index for all children (figure B1.3) and for female and male children (figure B1.4) indicate that the pattern is almost identical for all children and female children, that is, there is a steady decline which indicates that higher values of the index (representing higher socio-economic status) have a positive effect on the mortality of all children as well as female children. However, for male children, the curve behaves roughly like “U-shaped”, which might indicate that although higher socio-economic status reduces mortality but it has no permanent decreasing effect on the mortality of male children. We may conclude that a higher socio-economic status (higher income) of the household may be more beneficial for the female child. The graphs of the nonparametric effect of hsb index on the mortality of children (figures B1.3 and B1.4) exhibit that, on the whole, positive health seeking behaviour of the mother leads to the reduction of mortality. For the male children, the graph shows that the mortality remains higher and relatively constant for lower (negative) values of the index and then sharply declines afterwards. The graphs for all children and female children are almost identical showing a steep decline of mortality with growing values of the index. However, after a value of 1.5 of the index, the curve unexpectedly shows an upward direction. From the plots for the non linear effect of birth order on the mortality of children as well as female and male children (figures B1.3 and B1.4), it is clear that its effect is almost identical for all children and male children where it almost steadily increases and begins to decline after a birth order of around 12. This shows that the higher the birth order, the higher is the mortality. For female children, the mortality steadily increases up until birth order 3 and then behaves almost linearly (remains constant and high). We may interpret this as telling the point that lower birth order is more conducive for the female children (aged 1-3 years).