Recapitulation

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EPI

Strong coordination problems between the various political layers

Strong checks and balances on the federal level challenge lasting policy initiatives; many competences remain with the states

EPI is enshrined in the supranational system sui generis, but the member states remain the principal actors limiting the impact of the supranational actor

Time consistency

The FYP and other plans ensure a stable

framework over time;

targets are only relative not absolute

The unsteady political leadership and high level of polarisation has avoided of long term stability and created boom and bust cycles

Stable framework based on targets and strategies;

however, targets for 2030 less stringent than 2020 targets

Functions

Economic framework

Government-controlled form of capitalism in which in many key industries SOEs are in charge, growing role of international joint-ventures; first

experiments with carbon pricing

Prime example of a LME that offers little room for government steering;

some states have put a carbon price in place

Broad variety of national economies, but mostly CMEs; European-wide carbon price is in place, but with little steering capacity

Technological innovation

Innovation system is immature and highly state-centred, but the capacities are growing;

little is known about the quality

Largest innovation capacity worldwide;

however, government influence is low limiting public steering potential

Supranational level holds little sway over

innovation efforts as they are mostly

organised by the member states

Welfare regime

High reliance on non-state actors for welfare provision; highest Gini coefficient of the three

Liberal welfare state regime; middle Gini coefficient of the three cases

Supranational level has little impact on social policy; Gini coefficient of all member states lower than for other cases

Source: Author’s compilation.

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Preface  to  the  case  studies  

Sustainable transitions are an uncertain long-term project. The three-layered analytical model has shown that governing and steering them requires a profound overhaul of the governance regime. With many stakeholders involved who need to take care of a variety of tasks, the process is challenging for everyone. At the beginning of the green transitions, the outcome is unknown and the path uncertain. Hence, empirical case studies are a snapshot and should concentrate on parts of the process in order to show a nuanced picture. The following case studies focus on the progress to date for selected policy fields. The snapshot comes with a warning, though: The unsteady dynamic of past transitions indicates that each point in time is likely either positively or negatively skewed. Furthermore, the chosen policy fields are not necessarily representative of overall progress. Nonetheless, this in-depth analysis based on the developed analytical model allows scrutinising whether the three cases escape the carbon lock-in of the fossil fuel era and base their economic activities on a more sustainable foundation.

The starting position of the three cases varies as seen in the previous chapter. Hence, this study applies a most different research design with regard to the polities analysed. They are chosen because they are central to a significant global decarbonisation because of their size.

Analysed is always the political level that has the necessary competences to trigger and steer the transition in the given area: the central government of China, the federal government of the United States and the supranational level of the European Union. In China, public actors are deeply intertwined with most political, social and economic decisions. Manufacturing rather than innovation is driving rapid economic development during the last decades. The economic model results in high inequality that together with environmental degradation threatens the legitimacy of CPC rule. Going forward, the authorities aim to combine economic growth with environmental protection and social justice to improve the living conditions of the population. In the United States, the preconditions for a green transition are similarly complicated but very different. The governance system puts private actors into a strong position, as the marketplace is the key coordinating space. This limits the impact of state institutions. Furthermore, the political class is divided whether a green economy is a desirable goal or not. The European Union has historically been an international leader on climate change mitigation efforts. However, compared to the other cases, the power of the supranational level is limited since key competences remain with the member states. The

result is that the European level is limited to coordination and giving recommendations that the member states adopt according to domestic circumstances.

The transition to a green economy will affect all socio-economic areas. Since analysing them all is beyond the scope of this doctoral thesis, the case studies concentrate on one particular topic for each case. Three considerations guided each decision: First, the area must be central to the green economy: either it causes a high share of GHG emissions or it enables other technologies central to the green economy. Second, the areas need to represent a significant chance to significantly reduce GHG emissions. Third, the polities must have shown efforts to achieve a green transition in the analysed area. The three chosen policy fields satisfy these conditions. The Chinese government has put electro mobility high on the agenda, which can potentially reduce GHG emissions from the rapidly growing transport sector. Switching from fossil fuel to renewable electricity generation would considerably reduce the carbon footprint of the US economy. While several states have assumed a front-runner position, the central government can strengthen the transition process. Deploying the smart grid within the European Union would indirectly reduce GHG emissions by allowing other low-carbon technologies to enter the market more easily. While the member states remain crucial stakeholders – in particular in regulating their domestic power mix and shaping European energy policy – the supranational level has gained a prominent role as it is best suited to manage the European grid integration.

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