OC emission trends

Im Dokument Emission Inventories and Projections (Seite 124-134)

Chapter 3 Emission Inventories and Projections

3.4. Anthropogenic Emissions, 1850-2050

3.4.8. OC emission trends

Global OC emissions gradually increased from 1850 to the early 2000s, as shown in Figure 3.17. After 2005 or 2020, global emissions are projected to decline in 2050 from year 2000 levels by about 20%, except in RCP 6.0 which shows a slight increase. Emissions in Europe peaked in 1940 then gradually declined through 2000. Emissions in North America peaked in 1870-1920 and were nearly constant 1960-2000. By 2050, emissions in Europe and North America are projected to decline

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from year 2000 levels by 30-70% and 15-45%, respectively. From about 1980 to 2030, the largest emissions region is East Asia. Emissions in South Asia steadily increase and by 2040 are roughly equal to emissions from East Asia. Global OC emissions are projected to decline by 2050. This decrease is primarily due to decreases in emissions in the energy, industry and waste category, which account for 30% of the reductions shown from 2000 to 2050. There are also decreases in land transport emissions in Europe and North America and residential emissions in East Asia.

FINDING: A long-term dataset of major anthropogenic emissions from 1850-2100 at 0.1º × 0.1º spatial resolution is now available for use in chemical transport models to probe the changing nature of intercontinental transport over time. Historical and recent emissions are built on Lamarque et al. [2010] and EDGAR-HTAP. Future emissions use the IPCC AR5

Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, which embody an integrated view of the future drivers of emissions (socioeconomics, regulation, technology, and climate policy).

RECOMMENDATION: Comparison of the EDGAR-HTAP emissions dataset used in this HTAP Assessment with other global and regional studies of past, present, and future emissions is needed to provide confidence in the estimates.

FINDING: Emission estimates for natural sources of emissions are not so well developed as for anthropogenic emissions. Emission “events” (forest fires, dust storms, volcanic eruptions, etc.) rely on remote sensing and other techniques that are only available for the recent past (last decade or two). Long-term trends in natural source emissions are not well understood.

RECOMMENDATION: New techniques need to be developed to simulate episodic emissions of natural species for the past and future. Long-term average trends in such emissions (century-scale) also require additional work.

FINDING: Even though a basic understanding of the direct emissions from natural sources has been achieved in recent years, aided by satellite observations of global ecosystems, they are usually treated as stable inputs, unaffected by events taking place around them.

RECOMMENDATION: A more holistic view of natural emissions in the context of changing environments and climate modification needs to be developed. We can no longer treat natural emissions as unchanging over time. Environmental changes that affect natural emissions need greater emphasis. These include, for example, land-use changes that affect CH4 emissions, precipitation changes that affect biomass burning and mineral dust releases, and temperature changes that affect biogenic NMVOC releases, soil NOx, lightning NOx, etc.

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Figure 3.10. SO2 emissions regional trends, future predictions, and sources. Emission trends from 1850-2050 and four RCP scenarios from 2000-2050 are shown for the global total and for the four source regions from the HTAP multi-model experiments [left column]. For each region, sources of SO2 are shown for the 2000 EDGAR-HTAP inventory, the 2000 RCP base case, the 2030 RCP 8.5 scenario, and the 2050 RCP 2.6 scenario [right column].

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1850 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 SO2Emissions (Tg/yr)

1850 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 SO2Emissions (Tg/yr) (b) North America

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1850 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 SO2Emissions (Tg/yr) (c) Europe

1850 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 SO2Emissions (Tg/yr) (d) East Asia

1850 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 SO2Emissions (Tg/yr) (e) South Asia

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Figure 3.11. NOx emissions regional trends, future predictions, and sources. Emission trends from 1850-2050 and four RCP scenarios from 2000-2050 are shown for the global total and for the four source regions from the HTAP multi-model experiments [left column]. For each region, sources of NOx are shown for the 2000 EDGAR-HTAP inventory, the 2000 RCP base case, the 2030 RCP 8.5 scenario, and the 2050 RCP 2.6 scenario [right column].

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1850 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 NOxEmissions (Tg/yr)

1850 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 NOxEmissions (Tg/yr) (b) North America

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1850 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 NOxEmissions (Tg/yr) (d) East Asia

1850 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 NOxEmissions (Tg/yr) (e) South Asia

1850 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 NOxEmissions (Tg/yr) (c) Europe

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Figure 3.12. VOC emissions regional trends, future predictions, and sources. Emission trends from 1850-2050 and four RCP scenarios from 2000-2050 are shown for the global total and for the four source regions from the HTAP multi-model experiments [left column]. For each region, sources of VOC are shown for the 2000 EDGAR-HTAP inventory, the 2000 RCP base case, the 2030 RCP 8.5 scenario, and the 2050 RCP 2.6 scenario [right column].

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1850 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

VOC Emissions (Tg/yr)

1850 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 VOC Emissions (Tg/yr) (b) North America

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1850 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 VOC Emissions (Tg/yr) (c) Europe

1850 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 VOC Emissions (Tg/yr) (d) East Asia

1850 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 VOC Emissions (Tg/yr) (e) South Asia

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Figure 3.13. BC emissions regional trends, future predictions, and sources Emission trends from 1850-2050 and four RCP scenarios from 2000-2050 are shown for the global total and for the four source regions from the HTAP multi-model experiments [left column]. For each region, sources of BC are shown for the 2000 EDGAR-HTAP inventory, the 2000 RCP base case, the 2030 RCP 8.5 scenario, and the 2050 RCP 2.6 scenario [right column].

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1850 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 BC Emissions (Tg/yr) (a) Global Total

1850 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 BC Emissions (Tg/yr) (b) North America

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1850 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 BC Emissions (Tg/yr) (c) Europe

1850 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 BC Emissions (Tg/yr) (d) East Asia

1850 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 BC Emissions (Tg/yr) (e) South Asia

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Figure 3.14. CH4 emissions regional trends, future predictions, and sources. Emission trends from 1850-2050 and four RCP scenarios from 2000-2050 are shown for the global total and for the four source regions from the HTAP multi-model experiments [left column]. For each region, sources of CH4 are shown for the 2000 EDGAR-HTAP inventory, the 2000 RCP base case, the 2030 RCP 8.5 scenario, and the 2050 RCP 2.6 scenario [right column].

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1850 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 CH4Emissions (Tg/yr)

1850 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 CH4Emissions (Tg/yr) (b) North America

0

1850 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 CH4Emissions (Tg/yr) (c) Europe

1850 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 CH4Emissions (Tg/yr) (d) East Asia

1850 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 CH4Emissions (Tg/yr) (e) South Asia

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Figure 3.15. CO emissions regional trends, future predictions, and sources. Emission trends from 1850-2050 and four RCP scenarios from 2000-2050 are shown for the global total and for the four source regions from the HTAP multi-model

experiments [left column]. For each region, sources of CO are shown for the 2000 EDGAR-HTAP inventory, the 2000 RCP base case, the 2030 RCP 8.5 scenario, and the 2050 RCP 2.6 scenario [right column].

1850 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

CO Emissions (Tg/yr)

1850 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

CO Emissions (Tg/yr)

1850 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

CO Emissions (Tg/yr)

1850 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

CO Emissions (Tg/yr)

1850 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

CO Emissions (Tg/yr)

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Figure 3.16. NH3 emissions regional trends, future predictions, and sources. Emission trends from 1850-2050 and four RCP scenarios from 2000-2050 are shown for the global total and for the four source regions from the HTAP multi-model experiments [left column]. For each region, sources of NH3 are shown for the 2000 EDGAR-HTAP inventory, the 2000 RCP base case, the 2030 RCP 8.5 scenario, and the 2050 RCP 2.6 scenario [right column].

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1850 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 NH3Emissions (Tg/yr)

1850 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 NH3 Emissions (Tg/yr) (b) North America

0

1850 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 NH3 Emissions (Tg/yr) (d) East Asia

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1850 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 NH3 Emissions (Tg/yr) (e) South Asia

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1850 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 NH3 Emissions (Tg/yr) (c) Europe

Agriculture Land use change Other

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Figure 3.17. OC emissions regional trends, future predictions, and sources. Emission trends from 1850-2050 and four RCP scenarios from 2000-2050 are shown for the global total and for the four source regions from the HTAP multi-model

experiments [left column]. For each region, sources of OC are shown for the 2000 EDGAR-HTAP inventory, the 2000 RCP base case, the 2030 RCP 8.5 scenario, and the 2050 RCP 2.6 scenario [right column].

1850 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

OC Emissions (Tg/yr)

1850 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 OC Emissions (Tg/yr) (b) North America

0

1850 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 OC Emissions (Tg/yr) (c) Europe

1850 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 OC Emissions (Tg/yr) (d) East Asia

1850 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 OC Emissions (Tg/yr) (d) East Asia

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Im Dokument Emission Inventories and Projections (Seite 124-134)