Table notes and sources
Table 1. HD National Program vehicle regulatory categories: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, “Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards and Fuel Efficiency Standards for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Engines and Vehicles: Final Rule,” Federal Register, Vol. 76, No. 179 (Washington, DC: September 15, 2011), pp. 57106-57513, website www.
gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2011-09-15/html/2011-20740.htm.
Table 2. HD National Program standards for combination tractor greenhouse gas emissions and fuel consumption: U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards and Fuel Efficiency Standards for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Engines and Vehicles, 49 CFR Parts 523, 534, and 535, RIN 2060-AP61; 2127-AK74, Federal Register Notice Vol. 76, No. 179, Thursday, September 15, 2011.
Table 3. HD National Program standards for vocational vehicle greenhouse gas emissions and fuel consumption: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards and Fuel Efficiency Standards for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Engines and Vehicles, 49 CFR Parts 523, 534, and 535, RIN 2060-AP61; 2127-AK74, Federal Register Notice Vol. 76, No. 179, Thursday, September 15, 2011.
Table 4. Renewable portfolio standards in the 30 States with current mandates: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Office of Energy Analysis. Based on a review of enabling legislation and regulatory actions from the various States of policies identified by the Database of States Incentives for Renewable Energy as of January 1, 2012, website www.dsireuse.org.
Table 5. Key analyses of interest from “Issues in focus” in recent AEOs: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2011, DOE/EIA-0383(2011) (Washington, DC, April 2011); U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2010, DOE/EIA-0383(2010) (Washington, DC, April 2010); and U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2009, DOE/EIA-0383(2009) (Washington, DC, March 2009).
Table 6. Key assumptions for the residential sector in the AEO2012 Integrated Demand Technology case: Projections: AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, runs FROZTECH.D030812A, HIGHTECH.D032812A, and BESTTECH.D032812A.
Table 7. Key assumptions for the commercial sector in the AEO2012 Integrated Demand Technology case: Projections: AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, runs FROZTECH.D030812A, HIGHTECH.D032812A, and BESTTECH.D032812A.
Table 8. Estimated average fuel economy and greenhouse gas emissions standards proposed for light-duty vehicles, model years 2017-2025: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and National Highway Transportation Safety Administration, “2017 and Later Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards: Proposed Rule,” Federal Register, Vol. 76, No. 231 (Washington, DC: December 1, 2011), website www.nhtsa.gov/staticfiles/rulemaking/pdf/
cafe/2017-25_CAFE_NPRM.pdf.
Table 9. Vehicle types that do not rely solely on a gasoline internal combustion engine for motive and accessory power: U.S.
Energy Information Administration, Office of Energy Analysis.
Table 10. Description of battery-powered electric vehicles: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Office of Energy Analysis.
Table 11. Comparison of operating and incremental costs of battery electric vehicles and conventional gasoline vehicles: U.S.
Energy Information Administration, Office of Energy Analysis.
Table 12. Summary of key results from the Reference, High Nuclear, and Low Nuclear cases, 2010-2035: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2010, DOE/EIA-0384 (Washington, DC, October 2011). Projections: AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2012.D020112C, HINUC12.D022312A and LOWNUC12.D022312b.
Table 13. Alaska North Slope wells completed during 2010 in selected oil fields: Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, Public Databases Website at doa.alaska.gov/ogc/publicdb.html. The North Slope well total includes exploration wells, water disposal wells, service wells, etc. The Alpine field is the primary field within the Colville River Unit.
Table 14. Unproved technically recoverable resource assumption by basin: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Office of Energy Analysis.
Table 15. AEO2012 unproved technically recoverable resources for selected shale gas plays as of January 1, 2010: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Office of Energy Analysis. Note: Average well spacing, percent of area untested, and percent of area with potential have been rounded to the nearest unit.
Table 16. AEO2012 unproved technically recoverable tight oil resources as of January 1, 2010: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Office of Energy Analysis. Note: Average well spacing, percent of area untested, and percent of area with potential have been rounded to the nearest unit.
Table 17. Estimated ultimate recovery for selected shale gas plays in three AEOs: Projections: AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2012.D020112C, AEO2011 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2011.D0209A, and AEO2010 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2010.D111809A.
Table 18. Petroleum supply, consumption, and prices in four cases, 2020 and 2035: History: Crude oil lower 48 average wellhead prices: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Marketing Annual 2009, DOE/EIA-0487(2009) (Washington, DC, August 2010). Lower 48 onshore, lower 48 offshore, and Alaska crude oil production: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Supply Annual 2010, DOE/EIA-0340(2010)/1 (Washington, DC, July 2011). Projections: AE02012 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2012.D020112C, REF2012.LEUR12.D022112A, REF2012.HEUR12.D022112A, and HTRR12.D050412A.
Table 19. Natural gas prices, supply, and consumption in four cases, 2020 and 2035: History: Alaska and Lower 48 natural gas production, net imports, and other consumption: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130(2011/07) (Washington, DC, July 2011). Other production: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Office of Energy Analysis.
Consumption by sector based on: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2010, DOE/EIA-0384(2010) (Washington, DC, October 2011). Henry Hub natural gas prices: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook Query System, Monthly Natural Gas Data, Variable NGHHUUS. Projections: AE02012 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2012.D020112C, REF2012.LEUR12.D022112A, REF2012.HEUR12.D022112A, and HTRR12.D050412A.
Table 20. Marcellus unproved technically recoverable resources in AEO2012 (as of January 1, 2010): U.S. Energy Information Administration, Office of Energy Analysis. Note: Average well spacing, percent of area untested, and percent of area with potential have been rounded to the nearest unit.
Table 21. Marcellus unproved technically recoverable resources: AE02011, USGS 2011, and AE02012: Projections: AE02011:
AE02011 National Energy Modeling System, run REF2011.D0209A; USGS 2011: USGS 2011 Open-File Report 2011-1298, website pubs.usgs.gov/of/2011/1298; and Fact Sheet 2011-3092, website pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2011/3092; AE02012: AE02012 National Energy Modeling System, run REF2012.D020112C. Note: Average well spacing, percent of area untested, and percent of area with potential have been rounded to the nearest unit.
Table 22. Projections of average annual economic growth, 2010-2035: AEO2012 (Reference case): AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2012.REF2012.D020112C. AEO2011 (Reference case): AEO2011 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2011.REF2011.D020911A. IHSGI: IHS Global Insight, 30-year U.S. and Regional Economic Forecast (Lexington, MA, November 2011), website www.ihs.com/products/global-insight/index.aspx (subscription site). OMB: Office of Management and Budget, Fiscal Year 2013 Budget of the U.S. Government (Washington, DC, February 13, 2012), website www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/
files/omb/budget/fy2013/assets/budget.pdf. CBO: Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022 (Washington, DC, January 31, 2012), website www.cbo.gov/publication/42905. INFORUM: “Inforum Lift (Long-term Interindustry Forecasting Tool) Model” (College Park, MD, February 2012), website inforumweb.umd.edu/services/models/
lift.html. SSA: Social Security Administration, The 2011 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age And Survivors Insurance And Federal Disability Insurance Trust Funds (U.S. Government Printing Office: Washington, DC, May 13, 2011), website www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2011/tr2011.pdf. IEA (2011): International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2011 (Paris, France, November 2011), website www.worldenergyoutlook.org. Blue Chip Consensus: Blue Chip Economic Indicators (Aspen Publishers, October 2011), website www.aspenpublishers.com/Topics/Banking-Law-Finance-Economic-Forecast/. ExxonMobil: ExxonMobil Corporation, The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 (Irving, TX, 2012), website www.exxonmobil.com/Corporate/energy_outlook.
aspx. SEER: Strategic Energy and Economic Research, Inc., e-mail from Ron Denhardt (February 21, 2012).
Table 23. Projections of oil prices, 2015-2035: AEO2012 (Reference case): AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2012.REF2012.D020112C. AEO2011 (Reference case): AEO2011 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2011.REF2011.
D020911A. EVA: Energy Ventures Analysis, Inc., e-mail from Anthony Petruzzo (January 26, 2012). IEA (Current Policies Scenario):
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2011 (Paris, France, November 2011), website www.worldenergyoutlook.
org. INFORUM: “Inforum Lift (Long-term Interindustry Forecasting Tool) Model” (College Park, MD, February 2012), website inforumweb.umd.edu/services/models/lift.html. IHSGI: IHS Global Insight, 30-year U.S. and Regional Economic Forecast (Lexington, MA, November 2011), website www.ihs.com/products/global-insight/index.aspx (subscription site). P&G: Purvin and Gertz, Inc., Global Petroleum Market Outlook 2011 (Houston, TX, March 2011), website www.purvingertz.com/pubs.cfm?Area=1 (subscription site). SEER: Strategic Energy & Economic Research, Inc., e-mail from Ron Denhardt (February 21, 2012).
Table 24. Projections of energy consumption by sector, 2010-2035: AEO2012 (Reference case): AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2012.REF2012.D020112C. INFORUM: “Inforum Lift (Long-term Interindustry Forecasting Tool) Model”
(College Park, MD, February 2012), website inforumweb.umd.edu/services/models/lift.html. IHSGI: IHS Global Insight, 30-year U.S. and Regional Economic Forecast (Lexington, MA, November 2011), website www.ihs.com/products/global-insight/index.aspx (subscription site). ExxonMobil: ExxonMobil Corporation, The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 (Irving, TX, 2012), website www.
exxonmobil.com/Corporate/energy_outlook.aspx. IEA: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2011 (Paris, France, November 2011), website www.worldenergyoutlook.org. BP: BP, Inc., e-mail from Mark Finley (January 15, 2012).
Table 25. Comparison of electricity projections, 2010, 2015, 2025, and 2035: AEO2012 (Reference case): AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2012.REF2012.D020112C. EVA: Energy Ventures Analysis, Inc., e-mail from Anthony Petruzzo (January 26, 2012). IHSGI: IHS Global Insight, 30-year U.S. and Regional Economic Forecast (Lexington, MA, November 2011), website www.ihs.com/products/global-insight/index.aspx (subscription site). INFORUM: “Inforum Lift (Long-term Interindustry Forecasting Tool) Model” (College Park, MD, February 2012), website inforumweb.umd.edu/services/models/lift.html.
Table 26. Comparison of natural gas projections, 2010, 2015, 2025, and 2035: AEO2012 (Reference case): AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2012.REF2012.D020112C. IHSGI: IHS Global Insight, 30-year U.S. and Regional Economic Forecast (Lexington, MA, November 2011), website www.ihs.com/products/global-insight/index.aspx (subscription site). EVA: Energy Ventures Analysis, Inc., e-mail from Anthony Petruzzo (January 26, 2012). Deloitte: Deloitte LLP, e-mail from Tom Choi (January 26, 2012). SEER: Strategic Energy and Economic Research, Inc., e-mail from Ron Denhardt (February 21, 2012). ExxonMobil:
ExxonMobil Corporation, The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 (Irving, TX, 2012), website www.exxonmobil.com/Corporate/
energy_outlook.aspx. INFORUM: “Inforum Lift (Long-term Interindustry Forecasting Tool) Model” (College Park, MD, February 2012), website inforumweb.umd.edu/services/models/lift.html.
Table 27. Comparison of liquids projections, 2010, 2015, 2025, and 2035: AEO2012 (Reference case): AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2012.REF2012.D020112C. BP: BP, Inc., e-mail from Mark Finley (January 15, 2012). EVA: Energy Ventures Analysis, Inc., e-mail from Anthony Petruzzo (January 26, 2012). IHSGI: IHS Global Insight, 30-year U.S. and Regional Economic Forecast (Lexington, MA, November 2011), website www.ihs.com/products/global-insight/index.aspx (subscription site). INFORUM: “Inforum Lift (Long-term Interindustry Forecasting Tool) Model” (College Park, MD, February 2012), website inforumweb.umd.edu/services/models/lift.html. P&G: Purvin and Gertz, Inc., Global Petroleum Market Outlook 2011 (Houston, TX, March 2011), website www.purvingertz.com/pubs.cfm?Area=1 (subscription site).
Table 28. Comparison of coal projections, 2010, 2015, 2025, and 2035: AEO2012 (Reference case): AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2012.REF2012.D020112C. EVA: Energy Ventures Analysis, Inc., e-mail from Anthony Petruzzo (January 26, 2012). IHSGI: IHS Global Insight, 30-year U.S. and Regional Economic Forecast (Lexington, MA, November 2011), website www.ihs.
com/products/global-insight/index.aspx (subscription site). INFORUM: “Inforum Lift (Long-term Interindustry Forecasting Tool) Model” (College Park, MD, February 2012), website inforumweb.umd.edu/services/models/lift.html. IEA: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2011 (Paris, France, November 2011), website www.worldenergyoutlook.org. BP: BP, Inc., e-mail from Mark Finley (January 15, 2012). ExxonMobil: ExxonMobil Corporation, The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 (Irving, TX, 2012), website www.exxonmobil.com/Corporate/energy_outlook.aspx. BP: BP, Inc., e-mail from Mark Finley (January 15, 2012).
Figure notes and sources
Figure 1. Energy use per capita and per dollar of gross domestic product, 1980-2035: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2010, DOE/EIA-0384(2010) (Washington, DC, October 2011). Projections: AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, run REF2012.D020112C.
Figure 2. U.S. production of tight oil in four cases, 2000-2035: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2010, DOE/EIA-0384(2010) (Washington, DC, October 2011). Projections: AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2012.D020112C, REF2012.LEUR12.D02212A, REF2012.HEUR12.D02212A, and REF2012.HTRR12.D050412A.
Figure 3. U.S. dependence on imported petroleum and other liquids, 1970-2035: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2010, DOE/EIA-0384(2010) (Washington, DC, October 2011). Projections: AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2012.D020112C.
Figure 4. Total U.S. natural gas production, consumption, and net imports, 1990-2035: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2010, DOE/EIA-0384(2010) (Washington, DC, October 2011). Projection: AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2012.D020112C.
Figure 5. Cumulative retirements of coal-fired generating capacity by NERC region in nine cases, 2010-2035: Projection: AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2012.D020112C, REF_R05.D030712A, REF2012.HEUR12.D022112A, REF2012.LEUR12.
D022112A, HEUR12_R05.D022312A, HCCST12.D031312A, LCCST12.D031312A, HM2012.D022412A, and LM2012.D022412A.
Figure 6. U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by sector and fuel, 2005 and 2035: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2010, DOE/EIA-0384(2010) (Washington, DC, October 2011). Projection: AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2012.D020112C.
Figure 7. HD National Program model year standards for diesel pickup and van greenhouse gas emissions and fuel consumption, 2014-2018: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards and Fuel Efficiency Standards for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Engines and Vehicles, 49 CFR Parts 523, 534, and 535, RIN 2060-AP61; 2127-AK74, Federal Register Notice Vol. 76, No. 179, Thursday, September 15, 2011.
Figure 8. HD National Program model year standards for gasoline pickup and van greenhouse gas emissions and fuel consumption, 2014-2018: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards and Fuel Efficiency Standards for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Engines and Vehicles, 49 CFR Parts 523, 534, and 535, RIN 2060-AP61; 2127-AK74, Federal Register Notice Vol. 76, No. 179, Thursday, September 15, 2011.
Figure 9. States covered by CSAPR limits on emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Cross-State Air Pollution Fact Sheet (Washington, DC, July 2011), website www.epa.gov/airtransport/pdfs/CSAPRFactsheet.pdf.
Figure 10. Total combined requirements for State renewable portfolio standards, 2015-2035: Projections: AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2012.D020112C.
Figure 11. Total energy consumption in three cases, 2005-2035: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2010, DOE/EIA-0384(2010) (Washington, DC, October 2011). Projections: AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2012.D020112C, NOSUNSET.D032112A, and EXTENDED.D050612B.
Figure 12. Consumption of petroleum and other liquids for transportation in three cases, 2005-2035: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2010, DOE/EIA-0384(2010) (Washington, DC, October 2011). Projections:
AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2012.D020112C, NOSUNSET.D032112A, and EXTENDED.D050612B.
Figure 13. Renewable electricity generation in three cases, 2005-2035: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2010, DOE/EIA-0384(2010) (Washington, DC, October 2011). Projections: AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2012.D020112C, NOSUNSET.D032112A, and EXTENDED.D050612B.
Figure 14. Electricity generation from natural gas in three cases, 2005-2035: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2010, DOE/EIA-0384(2010) (Washington, DC, October 2011). Projections: AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2012.D020112C, NOSUNSET.D032112A, and EXTENDED.D050612B.
Figure 15. Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in three cases, 2005-2035: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2010, DOE/EIA-0384(2010) (Washington, DC, October 2011). Projections: AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2012.D020112C, NOSUNSET.D032112A, and EXTENDED.D050612B.
Figure 16. Natural gas wellhead prices in three cases, 2005-2035: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2010, DOE/EIA-0384(2010) (Washington, DC, October 2011). Projections: AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2012.D020112C, NOSUNSET.D032112A, and EXTENDED.D050612B.
Figure 17. Average electricity prices in three cases, 2005-2035: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2010, DOE/EIA-0384(2010) (Washington, DC, October 2011). Projections: AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2012.D020112C, NOSUNSET.D032112A, and EXTENDED.D050612B.
Figure 18. Average annual oil prices in three cases, 1980-2035: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2010, DOE/EIA-0384(2010) (Washington, DC, October 2011). Projections: AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2012.D020112C, LP2012.D022112A, and HP2012.D022112A.
Figure 19. World petroleum and other liquids production, 2000-2035: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2010, DOE/EIA-0384(2010) (Washington, DC, October 2011). Projections: AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, run REF2012.D020112C.
Figure 20. Residential and commercial delivered energy consumption in four cases, 2010-2035: Projections: AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2012.D020112C, FROZTECH.D030812A, HIGHTECH.D032812A, and BESTTECH.D032812A.
Figure 21. Cumulative reductions in residential energy consumption relative to the Integrated 2011 Demand Technology case, 2011-2035: Projection: AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, run FROZTECH.D030812A, HIGHTECH.D032812A, and BESTTECH.D032812A.
Figure 22. Cumulative reductions in commercial energy consumption relative to the Integrated 2011 Demand Technology case, 2011-2035: Projection: AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, run FROZTECH.D030812A, HIGHTECH.D032812A, and BESTTECH.D032812A.
Figure 23. Light-duty vehicle market shares by technology type in two cases, model year 2025: Projections: AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2012.D020112C and CAFEY.D032112A.
Figure 24. On-road fuel economy of the light-duty vehicle stock in two cases, 2005-2035: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2010, DOE/EIA-0384(2010) (Washington, DC, October 2011). Projections: AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, run REF2012.D020112C and CAFEY.D032112A.
Figure 25. Total transportation consumption of petroleum and other liquids in two cases, 2005-2035: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2010, DOE/EIA-0384(2010) (Washington, DC, October 2011). Projections:
AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, run REF2012.D020112C and CAFEY.D032112A.
Figure 26. Total carbon dioxide emissions from transportation energy use in two cases, 2005-2035: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2010, DOE/EIA-0384(2010) (Washington, DC, October 2011). Projections:
AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, run REF2012.D020112C and CAFEY.D032112A.
Figure 27. Cost of electric vehicle battery storage to consumers in two cases, 2012-2035: Projections: AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, run REF2012.D020112C and BATTECH.D032112A. Note: U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy high-energy battery cost goal includes mark-up of 1.5 for retail price equivalency
Figure 28. Costs of electric drivetrain nonbattery systems to consumers in two cases, 2012-2035: Projections: AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, run REF2012.D020112C and BATTECH.D032112A.
Figure 29. Total prices to consumers for compact passenger cars in two cases, 2015 and 2035: Projections: AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, run REF2012.D020112C and BATTECH.D032112A.
Figure 30. Total prices to consumers for small sport utility vehicles in two cases, 2015 and 2035: Projections: AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, run REF2012.D020112C and BATTECH.D032112A.
Figure 31. Sales of new light-duty vehicles in two cases, 2015 and 2035: Projections: AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, run REF2012.D020112C and BATTECH.D032112A.
Figure 32. Consumption of petroleum and other liquids, electricity, and total energy by light-duty vehicles in two cases, 2000-2035:
History: Derived from U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2010, DOE/EIA-0384(2010) (Washington, DC, October 2011), Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Transportation Energy Data Book, Edition 30 and Annual (Oak Ridge, TN: 2011).
Projections: AE02012 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2012.D020112C and BATTECH.D032112A.
Figure 33. Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions from light-duty vehicles in two cases, 2005-2035: History: Derived from U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2010, DOE/EIA-0384(2010) (Washington, DC: October 2011).
Projections: AE02012 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2012.D020112C and BATTECH.D032112A.
Figure 34. U.S. spot market prices for crude oil and natural gas, 1997-2012: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Office of Energy Analysis based on Reuters data.
Figure 35. Distribution of annual vehicle-miles traveled by light-medium (Class 3) and heavy (Class 7 and 8) heavy-duty vehicles, 2002: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau, Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey, 2002, website www.census.gov/svsd/www/vius/2002.
html.
Figure 36. Diesel and natural gas transportation fuel prices in the HDV Reference case, 2005-2035: History: Prices for diesel based on U.S. Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Marketing Annual 2009, DOE/EIA-0487(2009) (Washington, DC:
August 2010). Historical prices for natural gas transportation fuel and projections: AE02012 National Energy Modeling System, run NOSUBNGV12.D050412A.
Figure 37. Sales of new heavy-duty natural gas vehicles in two cases, 2008-2035: Projections: AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, runs RFNGV12.D050412A and NOSUBNGV12.D050412A.
Figure 38. Natural gas fuel use by heavy-duty vehicles in tow cases, 2008-2035: Projections: AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, runs RFNGV12.D050412A and NOSUBNGV12.D050412A.
Figure 39. Reduction in petroleum and other liquid fuels use by heavy-duty vehicles in the HD NGV Potential case compared with the HDV Reference case, 2010-2035: Projections: AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, runs RFNGV12.D050412A and NOSUBNGV12.D050412A.
Figure 40. Diesel and natural gas transportation fuel prices in two cases, 2035: Projections: AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, runs RFNGV12.D050412A and NOSUBNGV12.D050412A.
Figure 41. U.S. liquids fuels production industry: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Office of Energy Analysis.
Figure 42. Mass-based overview of the U.S. liquids fuels production industry in the LFMM case, 2000, 2011, and 2035: History:
EIA, Petroleum Supply Annual 2010, DOE/EIA-0340(2010)/1 (Washington, DC, July 2011). Projections: AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System runs REF2012.D121011B and REF_LFMM.D050312A.
Figure 43. New regional format for EIA’s Liquid Fuels Market Module: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Office of Energy Analysis.
Figure 44. RFS mandated consumption of renewable fuels, 2009-2022: Federal Register, “Regulation of Fuels and Fuel Additives:
Changes to Renewable Fuel Standard Program”, EPA Final Rule, March 26, 2010, website www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2010-03-26/pdf/2010-3851.pdf.
Figure 45. Natural gas delivered prices to the electric power sector in three cases, 2010-2035: Projections: AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2012.D020112C, REF2012.LEUR12.D022112A, and REF2012.HEUR12.D022112A.
Figure 46. U.S. electricity demand in three cases, 2010-2035: Projections: AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2012.D020112C, LM2012.D022412A and HM2012.D022412A.
Figure 47. Cumulative retirements of coal-fired generating capacity by NERC region in nine cases, 2010-2035: Projection: AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2012.D020112C, REF_R05.D030712A, REF2012.HEUR12.D022112A, REF2012.LEUR12.
D022112A, HEUR12_R05.D022312A, HCCST12.D031312A, LCCST12.D031312A, HM2012.D022412A, and LM2012.D022412A.
Figure 48. Electricity generation by fuel in eleven cases, 2010 and 2020: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2010, DOE/EIA-0384(2010) (Washington, DC, October 2011). Projections: AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, runs REF2012.D020112C, REF_R05.D030712A, REF2012.HEUR12.D022112A, REF2012.LEUR12.D022112A, HEUR12_R05.
D022312A, HCCST12.D031312A, LCCST12.D031312A, HM2012.D022412A, and LM2012.D022412A.
Figure 49. Electricity generation by fuel in eleven cases, 2010 and 2035: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2010, DOE/EIA-0384(2010) (Washington, DC, October 2011). Projections: AEO2012 National Energy Modeling
System, runs REF2012.D020112C, REF_R05.D030712A, REF2012.HEUR12.D022112A, REF2012.LEUR12.D022112A, HEUR12_R05.
D022312A, HCCST12.D031312A, LCCST12.D031312A, HM2012.D022412A, and LM2012.D022412A.
D022312A, HCCST12.D031312A, LCCST12.D031312A, HM2012.D022412A, and LM2012.D022412A.