Links current as of June 2012
41. Oil shale liquids, derived from heating kerogen, are distinct from shale oil and also from tight oil, which is classified by EIA as crude oil. Oil shale is not expected to be produced in significant quantities in the United States before 2035.
42. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and National Highway Transportation Safety Administration, “2017 and Later Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards; Proposed Rule,”
Federal Register, Vol. 76, No. 231 (Washington, DC: December 1, 2011), website www.nhtsa.gov/staticfiles/rulemaking/pdf/
cafe/2017-25_CAFE_NPRM.pdf.
43. The EISA2007 RFS requirement for increasing volumes of biofuels results in a significant number of FFVs in both the Reference case and the CAFE case.
44. S. Bianco, “Chevy Volt Has Best Month Ever, But Nissan Leaf Still Wins 2011 Plug-in Sales Contest,” autobloggreen, website green.autoblog.com/2012/01/04/chevy-volt-has-best-month-ever-but-nissan-leaf-still-wins-2011.
45. Battery electric vehicle charge-depleting mode occurs when the vehicle relies on battery power for operation. Charge-sustaining mode occurs when battery electric power is coupled with power provided by the internal combustion engine.
Vehicles can be designed to operate on a blended mode that uses both charge-depleting and charge-sustaining modes while in operation, depending on the drive cycle.
46. Toyota, “Toyota Cars, Trucks, SUVs, and Accessories,” website www.toyota.com; Nissan USA, “Nissan Cars, Trucks, Crossovers, & SUVs,” website www.nissanusa.com; and Chevrolet, “2012 Cars, SUVs, Trucks, Crossovers & Vans,” website www.chevy.com. Note: Miles per gallon equivalent, as listed by automotive manufacturers, is derived by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, www.fueleconomy.gov.
47. Toyota, “Toyota Cars, Trucks, SUVs, and Accessories,” website www.toyota.com; Nissan USA, “Nissan Cars, Trucks, Crossovers, & SUVs,” website www.nissanusa.com; and Chevrolet, “2012 Cars, SUVs, Trucks, Crossovers & Vans,” website www.chevy.com. Note: Miles per gallon equivalent, as listed by automotive manufacturers, is derived by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, www.fueleconomy.gov.
48. U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, “Vehicle Technologies Program,” website www.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/technologies/systems/index.html.
49. U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS), 2009 RECS Survey Data,” website 205.254.135.7/consumption/residential/data/2009.
50. U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, “Alternative Fuels & Advanced Vehicles Data Center,” website www.afdc.energy.gov.
51. Indiana University, School of Public and Environmental Affairs, “Plug-in Electric Vehicles: A Practical Plan for Progress,”
website www.indiana.edu/~spea/pubs/TEP_combined.pdf.
52. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and National Highway Transportation Safety Administration, “2017 and Later Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards; Proposed Rule,”
Federal Register, Vol. 76, No. 231 (Washington, DC: December 1, 2011), website www.nhtsa.gov/staticfiles/rulemaking/pdf/
cafe/2017-25_CAFE_NPRM.pdf.
53. For this analysis, heavy-duty vehicles include trucks with a Gross Vehicle Weight Rating of 10,001 pounds and higher, corresponding to Gross Vehicle Weight Rating classes 3 through 8 vehicles.
54. U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, “Alternative Fueling Station Database Custom Query” (Washington, DC: June 3, 2010), website www.afdc.energy.gov/afdc/fuels/stations_query.html. Accessed June 30, 2012.
55. National Petroleum News, Market Facts 2011.
56. U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Clean Cities Alternative Fuel Price Report (Washington, DC: April, 2012), website www.afdc.energy.gov/afdc/pdfs/afpr_apr_12.pdf.
57. The Texas Clean Transportation Triangle is supported by Texas State Senate Bill 20, which provides vehicle rebates and fueling grants. See West, Williams, House Research Organization, “Bill Analysis: SB 20” (Austin, TX: May 21, 2011), website www.hro.house.state.tx.us/pdf/ba82r/sb0020.pdf.
58. The Interstate Clean Transportation Corridor was developed in 1996. The corridor is now partially established with LNG truck refueling infrastructure in California and to Reno, Las Vegas, and Phoenix. See Gladstein, Neandross & Associates, “Interstate Clean Transportation Corridor” (Santa Monica, CA: February 2, 2012), website ictc.gladstein.org.
59. The Pennsylvania Clean Transportation Corridor was proposed in a report, “A Road Map to a Natural Gas Vehicle Future”
(Canonsburg, PA: April 5, 2011), sponsored by the Marcellus Shale Coalition, website marcelluscoalition.org/wp-content/
uploads/2011/04/MSC_NGV_Study.pdf.
60. The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act has provided more than $300 million toward cost-sharing projects related to alternative fuels. U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, “American Recovery and Reinvestment Act Project Awards” (Washington, DC: September 7, 2011) website www1.eere.energy.gov/cleancities/
projects.html.
61. For a map of U.S. LNG peak shaving, see U.S. Energy Information Administration, “U.S. LNG Peaking Shaving and Import Facilities, 2008” (Washington, DC: December, 2008), website www.eia.gov/pub/oil_gas/natural_gas/analysis_publications/
ngpipeline/lngpeakshaving_map.html.
62. The LNG Excise Tax Equalization Act of 2012, proposed in the U.S. House of Representatives, would require the tax treatment of LNG and diesel fuel to be equivalent on the basis of heat content. See Civic Impulse, LLC, “H.R. 3832: LNG Excise Tax Equalization Act of 2012” (Washington, DC: May 29, 2012), website legacy.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=h112-3832.
63. Developed from e-mail correspondence with Graham Williams, 4/11/12.
64. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and National Highway Transportation Safety Administration, “Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards and Fuel Efficiency Standards for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Engines and Vehicles,” Federal Register Vol. 76, No. 179 (Washington, DC: September 15, 2011), website www.federalregister.gov/articles/2011/09/15/2011-20740/
greenhouse-gas-emissions-standards-and-fuel-efficiency-standards-for-medium--and-heavy-duty-engines#p-3.
65. U.S. Census Bureau, “Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey (VIUS) (discontinued after 2002)” (Washington, DC: May 29, 2012), website www.census.gov/econ/overview/se0501.html.
66. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and National Highway Transportation Safety Administration, “Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards and Fuel Efficiency Standards for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Engines and Vehicles,” Federal Register Vol. 76, No. 179 (Washington, DC: September 15, 2011), website www.federalregister.gov/articles/2011/09/15/2011-20740/
greenhouse-gas-emissions-standards-and-fuel-efficiency-standards-for-medium--and-heavy-duty-engines#p-3.
67. For information on the New Alternative Transportation to Give Americans Solutions Act of 2012, see Civic Impulse, LLC, “H.R.
1380: New Alternative Transportation to Give Americans Solutions Act of 2011” (Washington, DC: May 29, 2012), website legacy.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=h112-1380.
68. The liquid fuels production industry includes all participants involved in the production of liquid fuels: producers of feedstocks, petroleum- and nonpetroleum-based refined products and blendstocks, and liquid and non-liquid end-use products.
69. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “Mercury and Air Toxics Standards” (Washington, DC: March 27, 2012), website www.epa.gov/mats.
70. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR)” (May 25, 2012), website www.epa.gov/
airtransport.
71. Other components of variable cost include emissions control technology, waste disposal, and emissions allowance credits.
72. The AEO2012 Early Release Reference case was prepared before the final MATS rule was issued and, therefore, did not include MATS.
73. United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, “EME Homer City Generation, L.P., v. Environmental Protection Agency” (Washington, DC: December 30, 2011), website www.epa.gov/airtransport/pdfs/CourtDecision.pdf.
74. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Annual 2010 (Washington, DC, November 2011), Table 3.10, “Number and Capacity of Existing Fossil-Fuel Steam-Electric Generators with Environmental Equipment, 1991 through 2010,” website www.eia.gov/electricity/annual/html/table3.10.cfm.
75. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assurance, “The Environmental Protection Agency’s Enforcement Response Policy for Use of Clean Air Act Section 113(a) Administrative Orders in Relation to Electric Reliability and the Mercury and Air Toxics Standard” (Washington, DC: December 16, 2011), website www.epa.gov/
compliance/resources/policies/civil/erp/mats-erp.pdf.
76. See Appendix F for a map of the EMM regions.
77. The EPA is proposing that new fossil-fuel-fired power plants begin meeting an output-based standard of 1,000 pounds CO2 per megawatthour. See U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “Carbon Pollution Standard for New Power Plants” (Washington, DC: May 23, 2012), website www.epa.gov/carbonpollutionstandard/actions.html. Existing coal plants without CCS will not be able to meet that standard, and the proposed rule does not apply to plants already under construction. The EPA proposal is not included in AEO2012.
78. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-860, “Annual Electric Generator Report” (Washington, DC: November 30, 2011), website www.eia.gov/cneaf/electricity/page/eia860.html.
79. U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Levelized Cost of New Generation Resources in the Annual Energy Outlook 2012”
(Washington, DC: March 2012), website www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/electricity_generation.cfm.
80. U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Assumptions to AEO2012” (Washington, DC: June 2012), website www.eia.gov/
forecasts/aeo/assumptions.
81. U.S. Government Printing Office, “Energy Policy Act of 2005, Public Law 109-58, Title XVII—Incentives for Innovative Technologies” (Washington, DC: August 8, 2005), website www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/PLAW-109publ58/html/PLAW-109publ58.htm.
82. U.S. Department of Energy, Loan Programs Office, “Loan Guarantee Program: Georgia Power Company” (Washington, DC:
June 4, 2012), website lpo.energy.gov/?projects=georgia-power-company.
83. U.S. Government Printing Office, “Energy Policy Act of 2005, Public Law 109-58, Title XVII—Incentives for Innovative Technologies, paras. 638, 988, and 1306” (Washington, DC, August 2005), website www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/PLAW-109publ58/html/PLAW-109publ58.htm.
84. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-860, “Annual Electric Generator Report,” website www.eia.gov/cneaf/
electricity/page/eia860.html.
85. Tennessee Valley Authority, “Integrated Resource Plan” (Knoxville, TN: March 2011), website www.tva.com/environment/
reports/irp/index.htm.
86. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, “Status of License Renewal Applications and Industry Activities: Completed Applications” (Washington, DC: May 22, 2012), website www.nrc.gov/reactors/operating/licensing/renewal/applications.
html#completed.
87. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, “Status of License Renewal Applications and Industry Activities: Completed Applications” (Washington, DC: May 22, 2012), website www.nrc.gov/reactors/operating/licensing/renewal/applications.
html#completed.
88. Electric Power Research Institute, “Long-Term Operations (QA)” (Palo Alto, CA: June 4, 2012), website portfolio.epri.com/
ProgramTab.aspx?sId=NUC&rId=210&pId=6177.
89. International Forum for Reactor Aging Management (IFRAM), “Inaugural Meeting of the International Forum for Reactor Aging Management (IFRAM)” (Colorado Springs, CO: August 5, 2011), website ifram.pnnl.gov.
90. Alyeska Pipeline Service Company, Low Flow Impact Study, Final Report (Anchorage, AL: June 15, 2011), at www.alyeska-pipe.
com/Inthenews/LowFlow/LoFIS_Summary_Report_P6%2027_FullReport.pdf.
91. Tim Bradner, “Alyeska Invests in New Methods to Extend Pipeline Life,” Alaska Journal of Commerce (June 1, 2009), website www.
alaskajournal.com/Alaska-Journal-of-Commerce/May-2009/Alyeska-invests-in-new-methods-to-extend-pipeline-life/.
92. U.S. Department of Energy, National Energy Technology Laboratory, Alaska North Slope Oil and Gas – A Promising Future or an Area in Decline? (Addendum Report), DOE/NETL-2009/1385 (Washington, DC: April 8, 2009), website www.netl.doe.gov/
technologies/oil-gas/publications/AEO/ANS_Potential.pdf, pp. 1-4 and 1-5.
93. Alan Bailey, “TAPS transitioning to a low flow future,” Petroleum News, Vol. 14, No. 29 (Anchorage, AK: July 19, 2009), website www.petroleumnews.com/pntruncate/5456274.shtml (subscription site).
94. Alyeska Pipeline Service Company, Low Flow Impact Study, Final Report (Anchorage, AL: June 15, 2011), at www.alyeska-pipe.
com/Inthenews/LowFlow/LoFIS_Summary_Report_P6%2027_FullReport.pdf.
95. U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, The Oil and Gas Resource Potential of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge 1002 Area, Alaska, Open File Report 98-34 (Washington, DC: May 1998), website pubs.usgs.gov/of/1998/ofr-98-0034/
ANWR1002.pdf; U.S. Geological Survey, Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, 1002 Area, Petroleum Assessment, 1998, Including Economic Analysis, USGS Fact Sheet FS-028-01 (Washington, DC: April 2001), website pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs-0028-01/fs-0028-01.pdf; and David W. Houseknecht and Kenneth J. Bird, Oil and Gas Resources of the Arctic Alaska Petroleum Province, U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1732–A (Washington, DC: October 31, 2006), website pubs.usgs.gov/pp/pp1732/
pp1732a/pp1732a.pdf.
96. In 2004, BP commissioned a study that examined the possibility of building a 20-inch pipeline to Fairbanks and using the Alaska railroad to transport the oil to Valdez, at an estimated cost of about $3 billion. Source: Alan Bailey, “A TAPS bottom line,” Petroleum News, Volume 17, Number 3 (Anchorage, AK: January 15, 2012), website www.petroleumnews.com/
pntruncate/225019711.shtml.
97. The most common miscible gas EOR technique is to alternate the injection of gas and water, referred to as water-alternating-gas or WAG. Source: Oil and Gas Journal, Special Report: EOR/Heavy Oil Survey: 2010 worldwide EOR survey, Volume 108, Issue 14, published April 19, 2010.
98. Capital expenditures can be split into two categories—maintenance and development—with development expenditures allocated to the development of new fields that have not yet reached peak production.
99. Source for 2011 CP capital expenditures—Petroleum News, “Eagle Ford Could Nudge Alaska for COP” (May 8, 2011); source for 2001 CP capital expenditures—Petroleum News, “Sunrise or Sunset for ConocoPhillips in Alaska?” (October 27, 2002); source for 2001 and 2011 CP split in capital expenditures—Petroleum News, “Johansen: Urgency Lacking on Throughput” (October 16, 2011).
100. These figures were derived from the CP ownership shares of the Colville River, Kuparuk River, and Prudhoe Bay field units and from the oil production reports of the Alaska Department of Natural Resources—Oil and Gas Division.
101. The volume of water produced relative to the volume of oil produced is referred to as the “water cut.”
102. U.S. Geological Survey, Economics of Undiscovered Oil in Federal Lands on the National Petroleum Reserve—Alaska, by Emil Attanasi, Open-File Report 03-44 (January 2003), Figures A-2 (Alpine Field) and A-3 (Kuparuk Field).
103. In fact, these decisions would have to be made some time before the 350,000-barrel-per-day threshold is reached so they would be ready for implementation either prior to reaching the threshold or when that threshold is reached.
104. The owners of TAPS and operators of the North Slope fields might not know either at this junction what these future costs might be for both operating TAPS and the North Slope fields as volumes decline; at best they have estimates that might or might not turn out to be true.
105. The assumption that all North Slope exploration activity would cease with the decommissioning of TAPS might not be entirely realistic because some offshore oil fields might be economic to develop using floating production, storage, and offloading facilities (FPSO). This would be especially true in the Chukchi Sea, which has much less of an ice pack problem during the winter than the Beaufort Sea.
106. Maintenance capital expenditures could also decline if the field operators determined that drilling more wells was unprofitable.
107. Petroleum News, “Who Produces Crude Oil in Alaska?” Vol. 16, No. 43 (October 23, 2011).
108. ExxonMobil, 2010 Financial & Operating Review, Table entitled: “Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Earnings,” p. 70.
109. See also EIA, “U.S. Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Natural Gas Liquids Reserves,” November 30, 2010, website www.eia.gov/
oil_gas/natural_gas/data_publications/crude_oil_natural_gas_reserves/cr.html.
110. The further delineation of unproved resources into inferred reserves and undiscovered resources is not applicable to continuous resources since the extent of the formation is geologically known. For continuous resources, the USGS undiscovered technically recoverable resources are comparable to the EIA unproved resources. The USGS methodology for assessing continuous petroleum resources is at pubs.usgs.gov/ds/547/downloads/DS547.pdf.
111. “Tight oil” refers to crude oil and condensates produced from low-permeability sandstone, carbonate, and shale formations.
112. See shale gas map at www.eia.gov/oil_gas/rpd/shale_gas.pdf for basin locations.
113. Appalachian: pubs.usgs.gov/of/2011/1298/; Arkoma: pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2010/3043/; TX-LA-MS Salt and Western Gulf:
pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2011/3020/; Anadarko: pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2011/3003/.
114. A well’s estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) equals the cumulative production of that well over a 30-year productive life, using current technology without consideration of economic or operating conditions.
115. “Sweet spot” is an industry term for those select and limited areas within a shale or tight play where the well EURs are significantly greater than the rest of the play, sometimes as much as ten times greater than the lower production areas within a play.
116. USGS Fact Sheet FS-009-03. pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs-009-03/FS-009-03-508.pdf.
117. A well’s EUR equals the cumulative production of that well over a 30-year productive life, using current technology without consideration of economic or operating conditions.
118. USGS Fact Sheet 2011-3092, pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2011/3092/pdf/fs2011-3092.pdf.
119. USGS Open-File Report 2011-1298, pubs.usgs.gov/of/2011/1298/OF11-1298.pdf, page 2.
120. Well-level production from Pennsylvania is provided in two time intervals (annual and semi-annual). To estimate production on a comparable basis, well-level production is converted to an average daily rate by dividing gas quantity by gas production days. Because wells drilled before 2008 are vertical wells and do not reflect the technology currently being deployed, only wells drilled after 2007 are considered in the EUR evaluation. Well-level production for wells drilled in West Virginia is provided on a monthly basis.