Mapping Distress Pockets Mapping Income Poverty

Since income poverty estimates are not available at the 64-district-level, agricultural wage rate for male labour has been taken as a proxy for the income poverty level (see footnote 102 for details). Maps 2 and 3 illustrate male wage rate data at the district level to capture poverty status in 1995 and 2000, respectively. The spatial maps indicate that while there have been some positive changes in real agricultural wages during this period, there are large wage dispersions across districts. This is consistent with the observation of large differences in income poverty levels across districts, as suggested by BIDS

106 These factors need to be explored further through case studies and focus group discussions.

107 See Dev, James and Sen 2002 for further development of this argument.

Chronic Poverty in Bangladesh

(2001) based on the 1995 Basic Needs Survey data and BIDS (2003) based on the 1999 Poverty Monitoring Survey data. Some districts have been able to improve their situation, from low to medium or from medium to high wage categories, but many have not. The districts that have persistently remained in the low-wage category over 1995-2000 are predominantly in the north-west and western regions: Thakurgaon, Panchaghar, Nilphamari, Lalmonirhat, Kurigram, Rangpur, Gaibandha, Sirajganj, Natore, Naogaon, Joypurhat and Meherpur. Of these, six districts are areas with strong river erosion effects (Nilphamari, Lalmonirhat, Kurigram, Rangpur, Gaibandha and Sirajganj). More recent wage data for 2003 continue to show improvement. However, eleven out of 64 districts have seen a deterioration in the wage rate over the period (Annex Table 3.2 to Chapter 3).

The Heart of Remoteness:

Spatial Disparity, Adverse Geography and Chronic Poverty

163

Insert Map 2

Chronic Poverty in Bangladesh

Insert Map 3

The Heart of Remoteness:

Spatial Disparity, Adverse Geography and Chronic Poverty

165 Chittagong Hill Tracts: A Reality-Check on Statistics

It is difficult to comment on progress and its outcomes in the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT). Not only are statistics sparse and fragmented, they are also often misleading. To date, there has been no official survey by BBS capturing the socio-economic conditions of CHT. There are some surveys where a few sample households from CHT are included, but not enough to provide a sound basis for analysis. For instance, the BBS’ Child Nutrition Survey does not include Bandarban (the poorest among the CHT districts) in the sample, while only 10 households from Khagrachari and 21 households from Rangamati were surveyed. As a result, the estimated proportion of under-five children who are underweight in CHT is absurdly low at 35.5 per cent, compared with 51 per cent as the national average. Similarly, access to sanitary latrine (pucca and pit considered together) was assessed at 55 per cent for CHT as opposed to 43 per cent nationally. These figures appear highly unlikely, as CHT is expected to have much lower attainment compared to national averages, perhaps even compared to the national rural average.

The comparability problem persists in case of Progotir Pathey 2000.¹⁰⁸ Under-five mortality appears to be lower than both the national average (86 vs. 92 per 1000 live births), and than the matched average for each of the six divisions considered separately. Similarly, the prevalence of severe malnutrition among 12-59 month-old children is assessed at 3.4 per cent compared to 4.6 per cent nationally, again lower than average of any of the six divisions. It is difficult to place confidence in these comparative statistics.¹⁰⁹

An alternative option is large-scale micro-surveys on CHT carried out by agencies other than BBS.

Fortunately, BRAC carried out one such survey in 1998 (Rafi and Chowdhury 2001), which gave very detailed breakdown of social development by ethnic status.¹¹⁰ The results show that the CHT average for all health and education indicators¹¹¹ are lower than the national or rural average, indicating the especially disadvantageous situation of the region. The other important finding is that there is considerable inter-ethnic variation, demanding that this aspect be carefully factored into the sampling procedure in any further official survey of CHT, whether by BBS, UNICEF or another agency. The Bengali population typically enjoys higher levels of social development than non-Bengali populations.¹¹² High levels of differentiation are also found both within and across the Pahari (hill) ethnicities. The community of Mro appears to be better off than other ethnic groups in terms of food

108 ‘Progotir Pathey’ (Path to Progress) is an annual publication that presents findings from the BBS-UNICEF multiple indicator cluster survey of a sample pf 60,000 households, intended to be nationally-representative.

109 The only indicator from the Progotir Pathey data which appears to be reliable on closer scrutiny relates to the rate of child immunization. Thus, the vaccination rate for DPT is assessed at 65.6 per cent for CHT compared with the national average of 74 per cent. It is lower than the average for each of the divisions except Sylhet, the figure for which is similar to that of CHT.

110 The survey lists over 2500 households, comprising roughly 500 households sampled for each ethnicity, namely, Bengali, Chakma, Marma, Mro, and Tripura.

111 Health indicators include access to sanitation, child immunization, maternal immunization, and contraceptive prevalence.

Education indicators include adult (15+) literacy rate and net enrolment at primary (6-10 years) and secondary levels (11-15 years).

112 The survey did not, however, take into account the possible socio-economic difference between Bengali settlers (those who settled in CHT before 1971) and the Bengali non-settler population (those who migrated to CHT after 1971).

Chronic Poverty in Bangladesh

poverty. However, they lag behind in all other respects.¹¹³ Chakmas appear to be better educated in terms of adult literacy and schooling for both boys and girls; they have better access to sanitation; and contraceptive use is higher than in the other Pahari communities. But they tend to lag behind others in terms of child immunization and food poverty. In short, the emerging picture is one of highly differentiated hill populations, with uneven development within and across ethnicities as well as between income and non-income dimensions.

Several clear policy messages emerge. First, the development needs of CHT continue to persist, although perhaps not so acutely as was the case before the peace accord. Second, targeting the non-Bengali community is not enough. Targeting the poorest ethnic group, and the poorest households within that community, for a given income or non-income indicator needs to be viewed as best practice in terms of allocating resources within CHT. Third, since the status of the poorest varies from one indicator to another, the matched sectoral allocations to a particular community must also vary. A composite indicator based on overall deprivation (e.g. HDI or HPI) may also be developed to guide the overall allocation of resources, channelled though government agencies and/or NGOs. Fourth, given the overall poor social development performance of the region compared to other divisions, the magnitude of budgetary resources currently allocated for the region needs to be increased. The problem of balanced ethnic development demands priority attention. This is not just the question of good economics, but also of good politics.