Spatial Disparity, Adverse Geography and Chronic Poverty
8.3 Unfavourable Agricultural Environments
8.3.4 Chronic Poverty and Unfavourable Ecosystems – Some Further Evidence
Both Quasem (1992) and Hossain et al (2003) support the general perception that the farm-household tends to compensate for the loss of crop income in unfavourable agricultural environments through expansion of non-farm activities. However, as mentioned earlier, this provides a picture for the average household, irrespective of what happens to households belonging to different income groups in a particular unfavourable environment. A more disaggregated analysis is required. Panel data from 16 flood-prone villages consisting of 273 households selected through multi-stage stratified random sampling can be used for such an analysis.
The results suggest that there is no such compensating mechanism in force, especially for the extreme poor. The share of income from non-agricultural activities for this group is quite small – only 8 per cent (excluding non-agricultural labour income) in 1987, which increased to 13 per cent in 2000. This is presumably due to a lack of access to financial assets and/or human capital. The corresponding shares of the moderate poor and non poor households are 26 and 49 per cent respectively in 1987, which increased to 39 and 52 per cent in 2000. This provides some explanation as to why chronic poverty persists in unfavourable agricultural environments.
In order to better understand poverty dynamics, it is necessary to track changes in household poverty status over time. An attempt has been made to capture such movements into and out of poverty in the
The Heart of Remoteness:
Spatial Disparity, Adverse Geography and Chronic Poverty
171 from agriculture, particularly from agricultural wage labour. In 1987, only one-fourth of income was derived from agricultural activities (trade/business, services and remittances as well as non-agricultural labour); this declined to one-fifth by 2000. These households could not supplement the meagre income derived from agricultural activities with income generated from non-agricultural activities. The factors and processes – social, demographic, economic and political – that have prevented them from escaping extreme poverty, while other households have done so, merit further investigation.117
117 Individual case studies that include qualitative information can throw some light in this respect. The speed of recovery is another unexplored consideration.
Chronic Poverty in Bangladesh
Table 8.1
Value of Human Poverty Index (HPI) by District
District Name HPI 1995 HPI 2000 Average Annual % Change in HPI During 1995-2000
Bandarban 51.6 39.77 -4.59
Rangamati 46.24 35.74 -4.54
Jhalokati 31.54 25.4 -3.89
Jamalpur 51.06 41.87 -3.6
Nilphamari 46.86 38.5 -3.57
Tangail 39.33 32.48 -3.48
Pirojpur 31.16 25.82 -3.42
Comilla 31.88 26.72 -3.24
Barguna 33.79 28.43 -3.17
Patuakhali 35.76 30.56 -2.91
Khagrachhari 43.86 37.58 -2.87
Khulna 32.51 27.95 -2.81
Mymensingh 40.3 34.7 -2.78 Moulvibazar 37.77 32.69 -2.69
Bogra 37.72 32.75 -2.64
Rajbari 43.75 38.03 -2.61
Shariatpur 42.28 36.76 -2.61
Naogaon 36.91 32.32 -2.48
Lalmonirhat 40.67 35.63 -2.48
Gaibandha 39.95 35.08 -2.44
Thakurgaon 40.32 35.87 -2.21
Satkhira 35.53 31.74 -2.13
Chandpur 33.28 29.76 -2.11
Pabna 40.36 36.11 -2.11
Sylhet 39.11 35.08 -2.06
Madaripur 38.59 34.64 -2.05
Narayanganj 31.58 28.45 -1.98 Kishoreganj 39.35 35.59 -1.91 Chittagong 32.29 29.21 -1.91 Panchagarh 38.71 35.03 -1.9 Jhenaidaha 35.74 32.37 -1.89
Magura 36.34 33.04 -1.81
Noakhali 36.33 33.05 -1.8
Manikganj 38.93 35.44 -1.79
Sirajganj 42.59 38.83 -1.77
Bagerhat 32.58 29.72 -1.76
Barisal 31.8 29.03 -1.74
The Heart of Remoteness:
Spatial Disparity, Adverse Geography and Chronic Poverty
173 Table 8.1 (Contd.)
District Name HPI 1995 HPI 2000 Average Annual % Change in HPI During 1995-2000
Jessore 30.77 28.2 -1.67
Sunamganj 43.01 39.44 -1.66
Rangpur 41.7 38.26 -1.65
Dinajpur 36.24 33.31 -1.62
Habiganj 37.23 34.45 -1.49
Narsinghdi 37.93 35.25 -1.42
Gazipur 34.93 32.49 -1.4
Lakshmipur 34.8 32.39 -1.39
Rajshahi 35.98 33.57 -1.34
Chuadanga 34.02 32.11 -1.12
Netrokona 39.04 37.06 -1.01
Nwabganj 41.68 39.66 -0.97
Sherpur 45.15 42.98 -0.96
Natore 36.02 34.42 -0.89
Joypurhat 37.23 35.7 -0.82
Brahmanbaria 39.26 37.65 -0.82
Narail 32.41 31.26 -0.71
Bhola 37.48 36.32 -0.62
Kushtia 36.79 35.78 -0.55
Meherpur 36.91 36.01 -0.49
Munshiganj 29.68 29.07 -0.41
Faridpur 35.26 34.59 -0.38
Dhaka 26.87 26.51 -0.27
Cox’s Bazaar 38.68 38.44 -0.13
National 41.8 35.5 -3.01
Coefficient of Variation 13.16 11.98 -
Chronic Poverty in Bangladesh
Table 8.2
Human Development Profile at Disaggregated Level in Bangladesh
Area
Adult Literacy
Rate
IMR (per 1000 live births)
Life Expectancy
at Birth
Immunization (12-23 months)
Child Death Rate 1-4
Years
Head-Count Index of
Poverty
1995 1995 1995 1995 1995 1995/96 Division:
Barisal 56.4 76.6 57.2 64.6 10.8 59.9 Chittagong 41.2 81.9 57.0 72.2 8.9 44.9 Dhaka 43.0 78.3 58.3 52.7 10.8 52.0 Khulna 47.2 72.4 58.4 81.3 9.5 51.7 Rajshahi 35.2 79.9 56.5 54.5 8.6 62.2 Sector:
Rural 36.6 83.3 57.1 61.3 10.2 56.7 Urban 60.0 60.8 60.6 76.3 7.7 35.0 National 42.6 77.7 57.9 65.4 9.7 53.1 Source: Bangladesh Human development Report 2000, BIDS, Dhaka.
The Heart of Remoteness:
Spatial Disparity, Adverse Geography and Chronic Poverty
175 Table 8.3
Human Development Profile at Disaggregate Level in Bangladesh, 2000 (By Divisions and Sectors)
Area Under 5 Mortality
Rate of Immunization
(DPT) (12-23 months)
Malnutrition (12-59 months)
Net Enrolment (6-10 years)
Access to Safe Drinking Water
Arsenic Contamination in
Drinking Water Reported
Access to Sanitary
Latrine
1995 2000 1995 2000 1995 2000 1995 2000 1995 2000 1995 2000 1995 2000 Division:
Barisal 106 92 80.5 71.2 9.1 7.75 86.65 84.95 93.2 95.4 - 0.2 51.7 50.1 Chittagong 149 92 66.5 78.7 8.95 4.60 84.3 81 93.79 96.3 - 5.1 41.1 41.9 Dhaka 137 91 69.3 71.7 10.0 4.35 76.85 79.35 99.8 99.6 - 3.1 35.0 38.0 Khulna 108 91 92.1 82.3 4.05 4.25 87.65 87.2 91.3 91.4 - 5.3 41.8 63.2 Rajshahi 129 94 84.1 74.2 6.8 4.20 77.4 82.6 99.2 99.9 - 2.4 27.0 39.6 Sylhet - 93 - 64.9 - 4.50 - 79.25 - 95.0 - 0.0 - 47.0 Coefficient of
Variation (Dist.
Level Data)
27.44 5.78 21.90 16.83 60.87 47.37 10.60 7.13 18.09 9.07 - 220.89 40.57 41.93
Sector:
Rural - - 76.0 73.5 8.15 4.75 80.85 81.85 96.7 97.3 - 3.4 36.4 41.3 Urban - - 80.0 82.7 6.15 3.95 86.0 80.75 99.3 99.5 - 1.1 79.1 61.2 National 125 92 76.4 74.4 7.75 4.65 81.4 81.75 96.9 96.7 - 3.1 40.7 43.4 Source: PRCPB Database.
Table 8.4
Summary Table of Bivariate Regression for Selected Poverty and Social Indicators for 2000
Dependent Variables Explanatory
Variable
Types of Model
HPI TFR U5MR Sanitary Toilet
Severe Malnutrition Linear -.29** -.14 -.26** .16 -.17 t-ratio -2.38 -1.08 -2.09 1.25 -1.35 Adj. R2 .07 .003 .05 .01 .01 F-ratio 5.67 1.16 4.35 1.57 1.81 Per capita
expenditure
N 63 63 63 63 63
Log-Linear -.30** -.13 -.27** .17 -.17 t-ratio -2.50 -.99 -2.17 1.32 -1.31
Adj. R2 .08 .00 .06 .01 .01
F-ratio 6.23 .97 4.69 1.73 1.71 Per capita
expenditure
N 63 63 63 63 63
** Significant at 5% level.
Table 8.5
Exploring the Relationship between the Incidence of Poverty and Wage Rate: A Bivariate Linear Regression Using District-level Data for 1995
Dependent Variable Explanatory Variable
(Male Wage Rate) Adjusted R2 F-Ratio N
Head-count Index -.63*** .39 41.31 64
*** Significant at less than 1% level.
The Heart of Remoteness:
Spatial Disparity, Adverse Geography and Chronic Poverty
177 Table 8.6
Summary of the Results Obtained Based on both Linear and Log-linear (double log) Pooled Regression, with District-level Data for 1995 & 2000
Dependent Variables Explanatory
Variables
HPI TFR U5MR Sanitary Toilet Severe Malnutrition Secondary
Enrolment
Lin Log Lin Log Lin Log Lin Log Lin Log Lin Log Average per capita
expenditure
-.40** -.41** -.20* -.13 -.16 -.10 .28** .23** -.06 -.06 .10 .01
Male labour wage -.22** -.20** -.24** -.30** -.15 -.23** .25** .26** -.10 .03 -.19 -.17 Population per
school
.12 .15* .23** .30** .15 .20** -.24** -.21** -.03 -.12 -.27** -.32**
Paved road as % of total road
-.15** -.20** -.32** -.40** -.34** -.44** .34** .40** -.28** -.32** .12 .17**
Dummy for CHT .48** .45** .31** .34** .26** .25** -.08 -.12 -.14 -.21** -.07 -.11 Dummy for
flood-prone districts
.21** .18** -.08 -.09 -.03 -.03 -.08 -.12 .09 .10 .04 .03
Adjusted R2 .47 .48 .26 .32 .21 .30 .34 .37 .13 .14 .04 .06 F-ratio 19.91 20.12 8.33 11.06 6.52 9.97 11.81 13.34 4.19 4.33 1.87 2.41 N 127 127 127 127 127 127 127 127 127 127 126 126
** Significant at 5% level. * Significant at 10% level.
Chronic Poverty in Bangladesh
Table 8.7
Results Obtained Based on both Linear and Log-linear (double log) Pooled Regression with Male Wage Rate as the Dependent Variable with District-level Data for 1995 & 2000
Explanatory Variables Dependent
Variables
Model
Specification Average per capita expenditure
Population per school
Paved road as % of total road
Dummy for CHT
Dummy for flood-prone
districts
Adjusted R2 F-Ratio N
Linear .52** -.04 .31** .15** -.14** .50 26.44 127 Male Wage
Rate Log-linear .55** -.02 .26** .15** -.15** .50 26.64 127
** Significant at 5% level.
The Heart of Remoteness:
Spatial Disparity, Adverse Geography and Chronic Poverty
179 Table 8.8
Summary of the Results Obtained Based on Log-Linear (double log) Change Regression with District-level Data for 1991-2000 Dependent Variables (Change between 1995 & 2000: 2000-1995)
Explanatory Variables (1991)
HPI TFR U5MR Sanitary Toilet Severe
Malnutrition
Secondary Enrolment Rate of urbanization .26** -.03 -.06 -.14 .20 -.23*
Literacy rate -.32** - - - .01 -.15
Total fertility rate - -.31** -.21 - - -
Infant mortality rate - - -.31** - - -
Access to sanitary toilet - - - .01 - - Dummy for CHT -.60** -.14 -.35** .27* -.02 .22*
Dummy for flood-prone districts -.20* -.18 -.05 .07 -.07 .01
Adjusted R2 .29 .11 .27 .01 .00 .06
F-ratio 7.48 2.94 5.72 1.06 .73 1.95
N 64 64 64 64 64 63
** Significant at 5% level. * Significant at 10% level.
Chronic Poverty in Bangladesh
Table 8.9
Districts of Over- and Under-Achievers for Various Social and Poverty Indicators Compared to the Predicted Level of Income/Expenditure, 2000
Indicators Over-Achievers Under-Achievers
The Heart of Remoteness:
Spatial Disparity, Adverse Geography and Chronic Poverty
181 Table 8.10
Regions of Over- and Under-Achievers for Various Social and Poverty Indicators Compared to the Predicted Level of Income/Expenditure, 2000
Distribution of Districts by Rate of Growth in Rice Production Fast Growth
Note: Col. 3 represents slow-growth but technologically progressive districts; Col. 4 represents slow-growth but technologically stagnant districts.
Source: Ahmed (2000)
Chronic Poverty in Bangladesh
Table 8.12
Source of Income by Ecological Zone
(Tk. Per Household) Ecological Zone Crop Household Wages Non-farm Remittances Total Unfavourable Areas
Wage Employment by Sectors and by Ecological Zone
(per cent of total workers engaged in) Ecological Zone Agricultural Wage Market Non-Agricultural Wage Market Unfavourable Area
The Heart of Remoteness:
Spatial Disparity, Adverse Geography and Chronic Poverty
183 Table 8.14
Man days of Employment and the Wage Rates by Ecological Zone and by Sectors
Agriculture Non-Agriculture Total
Growth of Household and Per Capita Income by Ecological Zone
Household Income (US$) Per Capita Income (US$) Ecological zone
Chronic Poverty in Bangladesh
Table 8.16
Changes in Head-Count Ratio of Poverty, Poverty-Gap Ratio And Squared Poverty-Gap Ratio by Ecological Zone Head-Count Ratio
zone 1987 2000 Change 1987 2000 Change 1987 2000 Change Flood-prone
Sources of Household Income for Chronically Poor Households
Sources of income 1987 2000