Education Level

The education level of the population will certainly increase in the future, primarily as a result of the momentum of growth in educational attainment. Most SERs have experienced large increases in enrollment rates for both sexes in the past few years. Because education has always been privileged on the political agenda, the peninsula already had quite high educational levels at the time of the 1990 census.

It is interesting to note that on the peninsula, as for Mexico and for most Latin American countries, there is no gender gap in school enrollment rates or in the level of education of the population. The latter means that the equal access to school for both sexes was achieved some decades ago and is currently reflected in the total population. Thus, when discussing educational levels in this section, we make no further reference to gender differences in education (Table 7.5). We do, however, discuss the important differences in education levels between SERs.

These differences seem to be related to two factors: the level of urbanization and the level of migration. Both factors are related to the level of development of the SER.

Statistics from 1990 show that education levels were similar in all three states:

60–64% of the total population had a low level of education, 24–27% had a medium level of education, and 12–13% had a high level of education. A comparison of education levels between SERs shows that this homogeneity does not exist when states are decomposed into smaller entities. In Yucat´an, in particular, only the urban area of M´erida shows high levels of education, with 50%, 30%, and 20% of the population having a low, medium, and high level of education, respectively. In the rest of Yucat´an, the proportion of the population with a low level of education is above 75% and the proportion with a high level of education is below 7% (and is as low as 4% in the maize-producing region). The differences between urban and rural SERs are less obvious in Campeche, but are still present. On average, the population of the hills and valleys region, and to a lesser extent that of the Candelaria region, has had less schooling than the population living in Campeche – in these SERs, 7%, 11%, and 19% of the population have a high level of education, respectively. The situation is very similar in Quintana Roo, where people with higher levels of education are concentrated in the tourist–urban region. Across states, it appears that the proportion of the population with a medium or high level

Table 7.5. Population by level of education in 11 SERs by scenario, both sexes, 1990 and 2030 (in %).

Scenario in 2030

Rapid Stagnation

Base develop- Stagna- with

educa-Level of year ment tion Central tional efforts

SER education 1990 (I) (II) (III) (IV)

Metropolitan region High 20 41 24 31 38

of M´erida Medium 30 28 30 31 27

Low 50 31 47 38 35

Former henequen- High 5 39 4 6 36

producing region Medium 20 27 31 38 26

Low 75 35 65 56 38

Cattle-producing region High 5 37 1 1 35

Medium 17 21 27 34 22

Low 78 42 72 64 43

Maize-producing region High 4 36 4 6 34

Medium 18 27 26 31 26

Low 79 37 70 63 40

Fruit-producing region High 7 39 8 12 36

Medium 19 27 27 32 26

Low 75 34 64 56 38

State of Yucat´an High 12 40 16 21 37

Medium 24 27 29 32 26

Low 64 33 56 47 37

Hills and valleys region High 7 39 8 12 35

Medium 21 27 28 33 26

Low 73 34 64 55 39

Campeche region High 19 42 23 30 39

Medium 30 28 30 32 27

Low 52 30 47 38 34

Candelaria region High 11 37 15 20 34

Medium 27 28 29 32 27

Low 61 35 55 48 39

State of Campeche High 12 39 15 20 36

Medium 25 28 29 33 27

Low 63 33 56 47 37

Tourist–urban region High 18 39 18 23 37

Medium 31 30 33 36 28

Low 51 31 48 41 35

Northern block-fault High 10 37 14 18 33

basin region Medium 28 28 30 34 27

Low 62 35 56 48 40

Southern block-fault High 10 36 14 19 35

basin region Medium 24 28 29 33 27

Low 65 35 56 48 38

State of Quintana Roo High 13 38 16 20 36

Medium 27 29 31 34 27

Low 60 33 53 45 37

Yucat´an peninsula High 12 39 16 21 36

Medium 25 28 30 33 27

Low 63 33 55 47 37

of education is much lower in the rural SERs of Yucat´an state than in all other SERs, even the rural SERs of Campeche and Quintana Roo.

Under the stagnation scenario, the differences in the levels of education are maintained, since all enrollment rates are decreased by 20% over the 1990–2015 period. Interestingly, between 1990 and 2030 the proportion of the population with a low level of education continues to decrease while the proportion with a medium or high level of education increases. The population above age 20 remains un-affected by the decline in enrollment rates until the end of the projection period.

Therefore, past improvements in enrollment rates for the 20+ age group are trans-lated into higher education levels. Past educational efforts have mostly benefited the medium education level in rural areas and the high education level in urban areas and SERs experiencing in-migration.

This momentum effect can also be seen when looking at the rapid development scenario. This scenario implements an increase in enrollment rates to West Euro-pean levels over the 1990–2015 period. However, it will take until 2070 for the improvements to reach the 60–65 age group. This momentum of educational im-provements must be kept in mind when thinking about the peninsula’s development, especially with regard to the equal development of all areas.[5]

The central scenario shows what the level of education would be in the case of moderately decreasing fertility and mortality and stagnating enrollment rates at 1990 levels. The educational momentum induces the level of education to continue to increase in the population. In 2030, only 5 of 11 SERs have populations with 50% or more having only a low level of education (less than 6 years of primary education) compared with all 11 SERs in 1990. In the urban areas of M´erida and Campeche, only 38% of the population are in the low education group. The rural areas of the Yucat´an peninsula maintain the lowest level of education. However, the increase in the proportion of the population with a medium level of education is noticeable on the peninsula, with a gain on average of 8 percentage points between 1990 and 2030. Amazingly, the proportion of the population with a medium level of education is quite homogeneous across the country: one-third of the population has received a medium level of education. At the high level of education, heterogeneity again prevails, with between 1–6% (the former henequen-producing region and the cattle- and maize-producing regions) and 31% (the metropolitan region of M´erida) of the population receiving a high level of education.

As expected, under the stagnation scenario with educational efforts the level of education in the population in 2030 is very close to that attained under the rapid development scenario. In general, more people have a low level of education in the latter than in the former. This is due to the different fertility assumptions in the two scenarios.