“our country first” movements
4.4.3 The digital revolution – “What we need to talk about!”
The digital revolution, virtual realities, and (general purpose) artificial intelligence have recently entered the public discourse in many countries. Looking back, it is almost impossible to believe that digitalization barely featured in the 2030 Agenda or the Paris Agreement. It is increasingly clear that digital changes are becoming a key driving force in societal transformation (Tegmark, 2017; Domingos, 2015). The transformation towards sustainability must be linked with the digital transformation by gearing the opportunities and dynamics of the digital revolution to the goals of the 2030 Agenda and the Paris Agreement (Villani, 2018; WBGU, 2018). At the same time, the digital transformation will radically alter the sustainability paradigm itself. There are five correlations at the heart of the integration of the sustainability and digital transformations.
First, many studies (Acatech, 2016; Acatech, 2015) show that digital technologies can help to drive decarbonization (in the energy, mobility and industrial sectors), circular economy, dematerialization, resource and energy efficiency, and the monitoring and conservation of ecosystems at a much faster rate than would be possible without them. This does not happen in and of itself. There is a need for corresponding regulatory policies, which at present only exist in a small number of sectors and a limited number of countries.
Second, if it is not shaped appropriately and geared to the SDGs of the 2030 Agenda, then digitalization could multiply already existing problems in many societies: inequalities (e.g., in the labor market, in education systems and in the division of labor at international level) and centrifugal forces within society could increase further; economic and, by extension, political power could become more concentrated (see, for example, the significance of the “big five” - Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, Microsoft for the digital transformation);
data sovereignty and civic rights could be restricted further and the monitoring of citizens and consumers (“social scoring”) stepped up, especially in authoritarian societies; governance capacities of public organizations could erode further, since, for example, it is very difficult to tax digital business models in virtual environments. At the same time, digitalization could also help tackle these difficulties, and yet there are still very few
instances of successful processes for shaping and governing digitalization around the world (WBGU, 2018). The accelerated technological developments threaten to overwhelm citizens and governments alike.
Third, policy makers, researchers, companies and civil society actors must multiply their efforts to understand and explain the multiple effects of digital change and anticipate far-reaching structural change in order to create a basis for shaping the digitalization process and gearing it to the 2030 Agenda and the Paris Agreement. Autonomous technical systems, based on learning machines and general purpose artificial intelligence, will fundamentally transform all areas of society and the economy in the near future (Villani, 2018; McKinsey Global Institute, 2017; Tegmark, 2017; Acatech, 2015; Brynjolfsson and McAfee, 2014; Barrat, 2013): Mobility, industrial sectors and production processes, value chains and the international division of labor, labor markets, financial systems, science and research, education, health care systems, political decision-making processes, and the judiciary. By processing enormous volumes of data, AI-based machinery will steer production processes, traffic, and financial flows, revolutionize medical diagnostics, change the way insurance companies make decisions, make decision documents available to parliaments and governments, and generate behavioral forecasts for individuals and groups (Domingos, 2015). During the last two to three million years, human civilization has been based on human intelligence – human intelligence has had no rival. Now it is being supplemented by artificial intelligence, which, in some areas at least, is far superior to human analytical capabilities. Linking human and artificial intelligence and creating “meaningful artificial intelligence”
geared to the goals of sustainable human development (Villani, 2018) is set to become a major task for humanity in the first half of the 21st century. How can we reduce the error rate of (globally) connected technical infrastructures and make it more robust? How can our legal systems keep pace with accelerated technological change? How can the unintended effects of private investment in the development of self-learning technical systems and virtual environments be understood by citizens and governments, and be geared to and shaped in accordance with our standards systems? How can prosperity be multiplied through automation and the principle of leaving no one behind observed at the same time? What are the implications of the technological revolution for the poorest developing countries?
Where is the line when it comes to using technology to alter, improve and manipulate people’s cognitive, physical and emotional capacities? What ethical guardrails should be put in place in the discussion about the transformation of humans and human enhancement? These questions illustrate the magnitude of the formative tasks associated with the digital transformation in the context of building a sustainable global economy.
Fourth, technological breakthroughs offer mind-blowing potential for human civilization, provided the digitalization process and associated technologies are shaped appropriately:
the expected explosion of knowledge, possibilities for transnational networks in virtual environments as the basis for the establishment of transnational cultures of
cooperation, opportunities for comprehensively monitoring and, by extension, conserving the planetary system, and the multiplication of options for horizontal participation on the part of many people as a result of digital networking. The printing press, which from an artificial intelligence perspective may appear to be a rather small step in human development, was the innovation that made the enlightenment, scientific investigation, democracy and the industrial revolution possible in the first place. Might we see a new kind of Enlightenment as a result of combining artificial and human intelligence with human empathy and social intelligence? How can we exploit the potential of digitalization to tackle the major challenges facing humanity in the 21st century – and avoid the daunting risks of accelerating technological changes running out of control?
Fifth, we will only be able to exploit the opportunities of digitalization, virtual realities, and artificial intelligence, and curb their potential risks and link the digital and the sustainability transformation if the digital and sustainability research communities converge, something which is still a long way off right now. Connecting the greatest innovative dynamics in human history with the major transformation towards sustainability, in order to stabilize the planet and enable a good life for a nine to ten billion civilization in the 21st century will require tremendous efforts, swift actions, institutional changes, huge investments, patience and a clear normative framework (WBGU, 2019).
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