Demand-Supply Water Gap

4.3.2 Demand-Supply Water Gap

The total amount of Nile water allocated to the Sudan corresponding to the 1959 Nile Water Agreement between Sudan and Egypt is 18.5 billion m³ (whereas Egypt is using 55.5 billion m³) of which over 90% is utilized in agriculture¹²⁵. This allocation was based on an assumed annual flow at Aswan of 84 billion m³. After Sudan withdraws 18.5 billion m³ as measured at Aswan, the remaining 65.5 billion m³ enters the Aswan High Dam reservoir.

Evaporation and seepage losses are assumed to average 10 billion m³ and Egypt is left with its annual allocation of 55.5 billion m³.¹²⁶

125 The 1959 Nile Water Agreement established a more equitable distribution of water between Egypt and Sudan. The 1929 Agreement allocated only 4 billion m³ to Sudan compared to 48 billion m³ to egypt, and reserved the entire ‘timely’ flow for Egypt, obliging Sudan to irrigate the Gezira scheme only during the winter months.

126 WHITTINGTON and HAYNES 1985 commenting on the sharing basis by saying: “Actually, the mean flow at Aswan over the last century is over 90 billion m³, not the 84 assumed in the 1959 agreement. The lower estimate is clearly favourable to Egypt because the difference flows into the Aswan High Dam reservoir for the sole use. On the other hand, annual evaporation and seepage losses are closer to 14 billion m³ rather than the 10 billion m³ originally anticipated (p. 136). In view of the variations in the annual flow of the Nile, the lenght of time required to fill the new high dam reservoir and the knowledge that Sudan would not need the whole of its water allocation immediately, an arrangement was made whereby Egypt could borrow up to 1.5 billion m³ a year until 1977 and then pay back the excess drawings over the following ten years

This share is not adequate to meet the water demand of the irrigation development stipulated in the prospective short- and medium-term plans for the Sudan. The total amount of Nile water suffices only for the irrigation of some 1.6-1.8 million crop ha. (3.8-4.3 million feddans) per year. Even if additional supplies become available, through further development particularly in the south region, and taking into consideration flood irrigation possibilities in the Gash and Toker deltas, the yearly irrigated area will not exceed 2.4 million ha. (5.7 million feddans), and this target can be achieved only by an efficient water-use.

The chairing of the Nile waters has long been a problem between Sudan and Egypt, for while Egypt is totally dependent on the Nile, much of the Sudanese major schemes (which are currently being overhauled with the intention of expanded production) are based upon it.

As the water of the Nile are finite, it appears unavoidable that at some stage Sudan and Egypt will between them seek to use more water from the Nile than the river contains.

Herein lies, as many experts argued a major development dilemma. That is why, the water demand forecasts for both countries treat water as a requirement which must be supplied irrespective to its costs.

In addition to the Sudan-Egyptian problem, an additional complication may arise if, as suggested, Ethiopia endeavors to make greater use of the water of the Blue Nile¹²⁷. According to the above, the inescapable conclusion is that Sudan is rapidly approaching the point where all future agricultural projects will be operated. If at all, at the margin of available water supply. This margin will be determined by the implementation of the upper Nile projects, including perhaps those in Ethiopia in the supply side. In turns, demand will be function on the pace and extent of new irrigation schemes in Sudan, including crop chosen, and the development of the non-agricultural use of water in industry and household.

Sudan is currently using 15-16 billion m³. Almost (all of this) is for irrigation. Irrigation schemes are planned which would use an additional 10 billion m³ - all of the new supplies which will be available from the upper Nile projects. Both of the upper Nile projects and irrigation schemes require financing¹²⁸. Forecasting water supplies and demands is thus essentially an exercise in forecasting Sudan’s macroeconomics and political conditions, and the priority these water development projects will receive in Sudan’s extremely limited capital investment program. On the light of these facts, argued WATERBURY (1982) that, given the current economic morass and other pressing investment priorities, in addition to

(DAVIS 1991b:342). Anyway, Egypt feel she has dealt with the issue of nile water allocation honourably since, untile the twentieth century, she was the only state in the basin to rely upon irrigated agriculture.

127 The four major hydroelectric projects planned by Ethiopea, however, are one the Blue Nile between Lake Tana and the Sudanese border. Together these four dams have an initial actine storage capacity of about 51 billion cubic meters and an estimated annual electricity generation of over 25 billion kwh, about three times the actual production of the Aswan High Dam. The annual mean flow of the Blue Nile at the Sudanese-Ethiopean border is about 50 billion cubic meters, so that the combined active storage is approximately equal to the mean annual flow. The results of this have indicated, however, that the objectives of Ethiopian hydropower production and Sudanese and Egyptian agricultural water use are not conflicting (WHITTINGTON 1985:3,4).

128 According to other Senario (MUSA 1991), it is estimated that 62% of Sudan’s cultivable area is in need of irrigation, considering that rainfed cultivation is a resk due to high variability of rainfall. To use its potintial, Sudan will then need anually 23.4 billion cubic metters in addition to its present share in the Nile water.

the political conditions, Sudan will not be able to undertake any additional upper Nile projects after ‘Jonglei 1’. Even if the Jonglei project is successful in providing the Sudan with a future annual supply of 3 or 4 billion m³ of water, it will only delay the day when further conventional agricultural development will be impossible without new water resources. The way a head will have to be in making better use of existing readily supplies, including reducing evaporation and selecting crop plant species with low water requirements per unit of yield and improving the irrigation systems (WHITTINGTON and HAYNES 1985:137,39).

In addition to the economic situation and the financing bottlenecks, another hindrance for increasing the supply of water in Sudan is the capacity of the reservoirs. For example, siltation is reducing the storage capacity of Reseires much more rapidly than originally anticipated. From the completion of the reservoir in 1964 to 1976, 75 % of the reserved dead storage was filled. The accepted solution is to heighten Roseires to 490 m, thus adding approximately 4 billion cubic meters of storage (WHITTINGTON 1985:12). The same problem, as it will coming in the next chapters, prevent Khashm El Girba reservoir from working with its full capacity.

Finally, it is to note that, not only for crop production, water supplies will be a limiting factor for the development of livestock production. Heavy concentration of grazing around a few good watering points might lead to overgrazing and erosion, and the opening up of new areas will depend to a large extent on the availability of water. Considering the socio-economic objectives, the Sudan is indeed engaged in a battle for more and better water for man, livestock and crops.

5. Implementation of The Field Study