Connectivity scenarios for the densely populated inner Alpine

Valleys – Ecological Intervention Areas

These spaces are the areas most exposed to fragmenta-tion and conflicts concerning land use. In Table 9 we give an overview of the main factors that will influence ecological connectivity in the coming decades. The green colour denotes an essentially positive development, while yellow represents a relatively stable/neutral devel-opment and the red signifies a problematic progression concerning ecological connectivity.

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Table 9: Main factors influencing ecological connectivity in Ecological Intervention Areas in the coming decades – Active factors

Active factors Development and trends

in the next decades Impacts for the area in 2030 1 Nature protection

policy ó Implementation of already existing EU and national nature protection policy and reinforcement of nature protec- tion in the densely populated sites

ó Improvement in the permeability of the landscape

ó Punctuated ad-hoc measures to allow

species migration ó Improvement for some species, no broadening of or improvement in protection of the last remaining habitats ó No specific measures or new legal

intervention to insure species protection and interlinked habitat conservation or at least migration corridors

ó Increased habitat fragmentation, loss of the last existing intact habitats in the Alpine valleys, valleys as major barriers for migration between mountain massifs 2 Social demographic

effects ó Balanced urbanisation and reduction

of spread of rural area settlement ó The issue of fragmentation is taken into consideration in spatial develop- ment policies and pressure on habitats and ecosystems is reduced by aware- ness raising of the population ó Growth in alpine valleys but concentrated

in periphery urban Alpine areas, further rural exodus from structurally weak areas

ó The fragmentation of the densely populated inner Alpine valleys continues, but the rural areas are less affected

ó Demographic sprawl around urban areas and increased population density in Alpine valleys

ó Higher fragmentation due to dispersed settlements and urban sprawl in Alpine valleys

3 Economic development, industries

ó Well-structured and locally concentrated development of sustainable economic activities and infrastructure

ó Major fragmentation will be limited to the urban hot-spots in the most important Alpine valleys and along the important transport routes

ó Increased, large scale concentration of economic infrastructure in Alpine valleys and around mid-sized towns

ó Diffuse threats of fragmentation at low altitudes but limited to the largest valleys

ó Uncontrolled industrial and commercial

development in Alpine valleys ó Increase of barriers and fragmentation in the valleys of the entire Alpine arch 4 Tourism ó Conversion to green sustainable

tourism ó Reduction of fragmentation thus far

caused by classical forms of tourism such as: important infrastructure for activities, individual transport, land consuming leisure activities ó Mass tourism potential decreased due

to climate change and the emergence of novel nature-oriented sustainable tourism practices

ó Balanced and environmentally friendly touristic infrastructure, integration of lower altitude regions in Alpine tourism ó Increased concentration of summer

and winter tourism in increasingly fragile environments with tendencies to consider the Alps solely as an outdoor activities playground

ó Lower areas and Alpine valleys more or less excluded from this type of touristic development in the Alps

ó denotes an essentially positive development ó represents a relatively stable/neutral development

ó signifies a problematic progression concerning ecological connectivity Source: Guido Plassmann, 2016

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ó denotes an essentially positive development ó represents a relatively stable/neutral development

ó signifies a problematic progression concerning ecological connectivity Source: Guido Plassmann, 2016

Active factors Development and trends

in the next decades Impacts for the area in 2030 5 Spatial Planning ó Nature and environmental protection

issues are generally and in a legally binding way included in spatial planning procedures

ó Fragmentation of Alpine valleys is a topic of regional spatial planning and

additional fragmentation is avoided ó Nature and environmental protection

issues require specific impact studies to be considered in spatial planning

ó Worst case scenarios of fragmentation can be avoided

ó Nature and environmental protection issues disregarded in spatial planning procedures

ó Uncoordinated and uncontrolled settlement and land use policy.

No guarantee that spatial planners and politicians consider ecological connectivity issues

6 Agriculture and

forestry ó Defragmentation is a requirement for intensive agriculture and forestry in Alpine valleys and integrated into management and subsidy policies

ó The situation of the most intensively used Alpine valleys improves in respect to ecological connectivity

ó Less intensive agriculture is promoted ó A higher share of extensive agriculture provides additional options for species migration through Alpine valleys ó No change of land use, no consideration

of ecological connectivity in the densely populated inner Alpine valleys

ó Increased habitat fragmentation and biodiversity loss due to intensive agriculture, augmented by transport and energy infrastructures; genetic exchange between population patches impossible.

Abandonment of traditional agricultural land use in higher altitudes with reforestation of open spaces 7 Governance

processes ó Civil society and nature protection stakeholders participate in political decisions concerning their living space

ó A genuine understanding and integration of ecological connectivity will be achieved in all local policies and legislation ó Governance processes are limited to

representatives of stakeholder groups ó Integration of connectivity in areas with decisive land use conflicts like the inner Alpine valleys will be limited

ó No special development of governance measures in respect to the protection of biodiversity and ecological connectivity

ó Very little probability that the issue will be integrated into local policies and legislation

8 Alpine social and

cultural framework ó New sustainable model of economic and ecological development precipitated and preferred by Alpine inhabitants

ó The situation of connectivity and biodiversity conservation in the inner Alpine valleys greatly improved by 2030 ó Stronger valorisation of natural values on

a local level ó Better integration of natural values in local land-use decisions – local stakeholders empowered ó Global economic crises and enhancing

further economic growth and consum- erism is the first and foremost concern of Alpine inhabitants

ó Small chance for any consideration of ecological connectivity and biodiversity conservation issues.

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Table 10: Main factors influencing ecological connectivity in Ecological Intervention Areas (and others) in the coming decades – Uncontrollable factors

Uncontrollable factors common to all three types of areas (SACA

categories 1 – 3)

Development and trends in the

next decades Consequences for

the area in 2030

1 Global climate change

and natural hazards

ó Increased impacts noted in the Alps, increased awareness, issues are consid- ered and integrated into nature protec- tion policies

ó Increased proactive land use manage- ment and use-constrains enhancing efficient and adapted nature protection while mitigating global change

ó Impact studies implemented, delayed

action while results are pending ó Awareness raised, but actions for ecologi- cal connectivity will probably be too late ó Global change not sufficiently considered

and implemented in long term policies and legislation

ó Global change and increasing natural hazard impacts will severely limit the development of efficient policies for permeable landscapes

2 Demographic

development ó Stable demographic development in the

different types of areas ó Possibility of ad-hoc wildlife corridors in Alpine valleys, less pressure in ecological potential areas

ó Increasing population due to concentra- tion movements in some of the areas’

categories, especially in the inner Alpine valleys

ó Densely inhabited valleys lead to more ground speculation and less chances for land use for defragmentation; in the other area categories, the increasing population may increase local pressure on biodiversity ó Dispersal of population especially within

inner Alpine valleys and in a lower meas- ure within other area categories due to demographic increase in regions with population concentrations

ó Inner Alpine valleys are more and more inhabited and dense settlement leads to even more fragmentation by stronger and less well-planned urbanisation

3 Global develop-ments on varying economic scales

ó Increased chance that road infrastructure and transport barriers remain limited (no realistic scenario)

ó Alpine specific economic development taking into account specific opportuni- ties and needs of the space within a global context

ó Alpine interests and ecological constrains integrated into economic processes and embedded in global policies avoiding excessive land consumption

ó Further globalisation of the economy independent of local situation and con- straints, no internalization of external costs in transport prices

ó Higher concentration of economic in- frastructure in the largest Alpine valleys, scapes and recreation possibilities ó denotes an essentially positive development

ó represents a relatively stable/neutral development

ó signifies a problematic progression concerning ecological connectivity Source: Guido Plassmann, 2016

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4 International

tourism trends ó Stable trend to local, sustainable nature

oriented tourism ó The situation of connectivity and biodi- versity conservation improved by 2030 ó Trends to more public transport for tour-

ism. Diversification of touristic offers in all four seasons.

Reduction of the effects of mass tourism formally reduced to short intensive time periods in summer and winter

ó Alpine valleys less impacted by the seasonal intensification of tourist traffic.

Although the other area categories could be impacted by increased traffic to touris- tic destinations

ó Globalisation of international tourism and trends towards “disneyfication” of the natural environment for tourism

ó Some densely populated valleys, primar- ily the main transport hubs (airports, train stations, highways), are favoured as tour- ist destinations in the sense of a regional centre for outdoor activities; higher al- titudes may be used more intensively for winter tourism; increasing fragmenta- tion for some species for example by cables, cable transport and ski slopes 5 EU policies

(planning, transport…)

ó EU policies systematically promote biodiversity and ecological connectivity and requires impact studies for all infrastructure projects with a special view to ecological connectivity

ó The connectivity issue is mainly a concern for the Alpine valleys in an European per- spective, general support is provided;

policies are accorded to this issue, other areas are less concerned by this factor ó EU policies integrate and consider

ecological connectivity in various sectoral policies

ó If implemented in all sectors, all catego- ries of spaces will benefit through less fragmented areas, not a very realistic scenario

ó No consideration of ecological connectiv-

ity in sectoral policies ó Fragmentation in inner Alpine valleys will be significantly increased

6 EU agriculture policy (Common Agricultural Policy – CAP)

ó EU agricultural policy actively promotes sustainable and regionalised Alpine ag- riculture based on organic and extensive farming

ó A more permeable landscape matrix es- pecially within the inner Alpine valleys will be possible; easier to create more and larger non-fragmented areas even in categories 2 and 3

ó EU policy partially supports a more ex- tensive agricultural approach in some areas

ó Local solutions could facilitate a more permeable landscape especially in the inner Alpine valleys and ecological con- servation areas

ó EU policy doesn’t consider regional specificities and constraints

CAP does not further support ecological and mountain farming

ó No changes in the ecological connectiv- ity in the inner Alpine valleys; difficulties in implementing active measures in other areas (2-3) and for biodiversity conserva- tion in still intact areas

Uncontrollable factors common to all three types of areas (SACA

categories 1 – 3)

Development and trends in the

next decades Consequences for

the area in 2030

ó denotes an essentially positive development ó represents a relatively stable/neutral development

ó signifies a problematic progression concerning ecological connectivity Source: Guido Plassmann, 2016

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4 2

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How to achieve positive developments

While it is possible to develop numerous scenarios of how the future will look, it is important to be cognisant of the fact that these are merely hypotheses, which may be more or less realistic. Our primary focus is first and foremost: how best to enhance ecological connectivity for biodiversity conservation. In these authors’ view, this is especially important in the densely populated valleys where the pressure on ecological connectivity and biodiversity is the highest. Today there is little time or room left to advance biodiversity conservation and ecological connectivity. Actions must primarily con-centrate on influencing factors as delineated above in order to achieve positive outcomes.

Uncontrollable factors common to all three types of areas (SACA

categories 1 – 3)

Development and trends in the

next decades Consequences for

the area in 2030

7 Political changes ó National and regional policies under- stand, value and integrate the protection of ecosystems and functional connectiv- ity. The added values of ecological con- sectors promote activities in favour of them ó National and regional policies mainly

focus on protected areas only to maintain biodiversity

ó Connectivity in inner Alpine valleys will be very limited, and the establishment of new large non-fragmented areas by link- ing protected areas via stepping stones or special measures becomes more difficult ó No special policies for nature and habitat

protection ó No positive development by 2030 for

connectivity and transalpine migration, especially in the most intensively used valleys of the Alps

8 General social

trends ó European population is more aware of the values of nature and biodiversity protection and understands global processes more clearly

ó Improvements on a local and regional level such as Alpine valleys and regions;

local populations take responsibility for environmental issues through improved governance processes

ó The Alps are fashionable and popular for their beauty and nature-related leisure and recreation possibilities

ó Nature protection becomes an important European issue in order to conserve the “playground’s” natural quality

ó Society generally pays less attention to

nature related issues ó The risk of an even higher fragmentation and biodiversity loss is important

Needs of the next years

The highest pressure on ecosystems and habitats is in areas with the greatest land use conflicts. Such areas are naturally found at lower altitudes. The densely popu-lated inner Alpine valleys represent some of the most significant problem areas for ecological connectivity.

On the one hand, an intensive analysis of the connec-tivity situation in the respective valleys is necessary in order to define and conserve remaining potentially permeable areas. On the other hand, active planning and implementation of further measures to improve landscape permeability and maintain or restore key habitats are crucial in maintaining a minimum of (genetic) exchange across valley floors and in allowing movements of flora and fauna. These processes must ó denotes an essentially positive development

ó represents a relatively stable/neutral development

ó signifies a problematic progression concerning ecological connectivity Source: Guido Plassmann, 2016

Im Dokument Expanding renewable energy within the Alpine ecological network (Seite 183-189)