BRATSK- ILIMSK-TPC

Rnyona Brrtsk. Us1 - Ilimsk.

Shelcsnogorrk Towns and industrial nodes:

h t r k , U r t - Ilimrk , Shclcsnogorrk National rpcializcd production of:

- clcctric energy - aluminium - t i m b a - pulp - c o n ore - c u d b o u d

Lrkutsk - Chercmkhovo TPC Tulun - Sima TPC Taishct - Chvnski TPC Urt'Kut - North &ikd TPC

(part of BA Railway) Mar- - Bodaibo TPC The Siberian and Far East Economic Zone

Figure 4. T h r BITPC in t h r regional structure: of thv national vconorny of thc 1ISSR.

M i d d l e A s i a . F o r p l a n n i n g p u r p o s e s t h e USSR i s d i v i d e d i n t o 1 9 economic r e g i o n s . The BITPC b e l o n g s t o t h e s u b u n i t A n g a r a - Y e n i s e i Region, which i s sometimes r e f e r r e d t o a s a TPC. The I r k u t s k O b l a s t h a s s i x TPCs, o n e o f which i s t h e BITPC. T h i s , i n t u r n , i s s u b d i v i d e d i n t o t h r e e i n d u s t r i a l n o d e s , which a r e development c e n t e r s o f t h e TPCs, n o t o n l y f o r i n d u s t r i e s b u t a l s o f o r s e t t l e - m e n t s , a g r i c u l t u r e , and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n . (UsuaLly t h e y a r e a l s o t r a n s p o r t a t i o n n o d e s . ⁾

The l i n k s between t h e i n d u s t r i e s and t h e i n d u s t r i a l nodes o f t h e BITPC a r e m a i n l y t h e power s u p p l y (HEPS--aluminium p l a n t , i r o n o r e d r e s s i n g , t i m b e r a n d c e l l u l o s e p r o d u c t i o n , and o t h e r s ) and t h e r a i l w a y and r o a d s y s t e m .

F i g u r e 5 g i v e s a s i m p l i f i e d p i c t u r e o f t h e p l a n n i n g and management of t h e BITPC. S i n c e a TPC h a s a s p e c i a l p l a c e i n t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e n a t i o n a l economy o f t h e USSR, p l a n n i n g and management s t a r t a t t h e t o p ; e . g . t h e r e was a s p e c i a l d e c i s i o n of t h e USSR C o u n c i l o f M i n i s t e r s on t h e development o f i n d u s t r i e s and towns of t h e BITPC. The BITPC i s s p e c i f i c a l l y s t r e s s e d i n t h e p l a n s of t h e S t a t e P l a n n i n g Committee of t h e S o v i e t C o u n c i l of M i n i s t e r s (GOSPLAN) and t h e M i n i s t r i e s . Programming a n d p l a n - n i n g t h e BITPC t a k e s p l a c e f i r s t on t h e l e v e l o f GOSPLAN a n d t h e GOSPLAN of t h e R u s s i a n F e d e r a t i o n (RSFSR) w i t h t h e h e l p of t h e i r i n s t i t u t e s . ( S e e , f o r example, t h e m a s t e r scheme o f t h e t e r r i - t o r i a l development o f p r o d u c t i v e f o r c e s of t h e USSR from t h e C o u n c i l f o r t h e S t u d y o f P r o d u c t i o n F o r c e s (SOPS) a n d t h e C e n t r a l Economic R e s e a r c h I n s t i t u t e ( C E R I )

.

The t e r r i t o r i a l a d m i n i s t r a t i v e u n i t , I r k u t s k O b l a s t , i s t h e main t e r r i t o r i a l o r g a n f o r t h e BITPC. A s p e c i a l r o l e i n f o r e c a s t -

i n g , programming, and p l a n n i n g i s p l a y e d by t h e o r g a n s and i n s t i - t u t e s o f t h e USSR Academy o f S c i e n c e s and i n p a r t i c u l a r by t h e i n s t i t u t e s o f i t s S i b e r i a n Branch. T h e i r a c t i v i t i e s a r e d i r e c t e d t o w a r d c r e a t i n g a s c i e n t i f i c b a s e f o r t h e development o f t h e BITPC and t h e e v a l u a t i o n o f f e a s i b l e v a r i a n t s t h r o u g h e x p e r t o p i n i o n s . M i n i s t r i e s , GOSSTROI, d e s i g n i n s t i t u t e s , and o t h e r management b o d i e s t a k e p a r t d i r e c t l y i n t h e development o f t h e o b j e c t s w i t h i n t h e TPC i n t h e p l a n n i n g and management p r o c e s s . A l t h o u g h t h e TPC i s n o t a n a d m i n i s t r a t i v e u n i t a s a whole, some e x e c u t i v e b o d i e s e x i s t w i t h i n i t , m a i n l y t h e E x e c u t i v e Committees of t h e r a y o n * and towns. I n t h e s p e c i a l c a s e o f t h e BITPC, we f i n d a l s o t h e B r a t s k g e s s t r o i and t h e A n g a r a s t r o i c o n s t r u c t i o n o r g a n i z a t i o n s . The development o f t h e BITPC i s c l o s e l y c o n n e c t e d w i t h t h e a c t i v i t i e s o f B r a t s k g e s s t r o i , b e c a u s e t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n i s i n c h a r g e o f a l l c o n s t r u c t i o n a c t i v i t i e s i n t h e BITPC, e x c e p t f o r r a i l w a y s , f o r which A n g a r a s t r o i i s r e s p o n s i b l e . New f o r m s of management o f a TPC a r e b e i n g d i s c u s s e d i n t h e USSR. The g o a l i s t o make management more complex and e f f e c t i v e , p o s s i b l y by c r e a t i n g a s p e c i a l body f o r p l a n n i n g and c o o r d i n a t i n g t h e a c t i v i t i e s r e l a t e d t o t h e TPC.

*Rayon may b e d e f i n e d a s a s m a l l d i s t r i c t .

Council of Ministers USSR

I2

GOSPLAN n SOPS U

0

Council of Ministers RSFSR GOSPLAN RSFSR

0 I? 0 0 n

Ministries USSR Academy of Sciences USSR State Committee I'or Scicnce and Tectmology KEPS GOSSTROl Siberian Branch of the USSR Academy of Sciences Design institutes and other. Town Executive Committees institutes ot Ministries and Board of Directors other state bodies. SOPS - Council for Study of Production Forccs 17 planning ar~d managlnerlt KEPS - Committee of Production Forces and Natural Resources (7, forecasting, programming. designing CERl - Central Economic Rcsrarch Institute

4-

administration direction Figure 5. The main lines of planning and management of the BITPC. (Simplified, many information feedbacks not shown.)

The BITPC, a s a p a r t o f t h e I r k u t s k O b l a s t , p l a y e d a l a r g e p a r t i n t h e r a p i d d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h i s O b l a s t . T a b l e 7 shows t h e g r o w t h r a t e o f i n d u s t r i a l d e v e l o p m e n t i n t h e I r k u t s k O b l a s t f o r t h e p e r i o d 1960-1975. The g r o w t h r a t e o f t h e i n d u s t r i a l p r o d u c - t i o n i n e a c h r e g i o n o f t h e O b l a s t i s shown i n T a b l e 8 .

T a b l e 7 . Development i n t h e I r k u t s k O b l a s t , 1960-1975.

S o u r c e : [ 2 4 ]

As c a n b e s e e n from T a b l e s 7 a n d 8 , r a p i d i n d u s t r i a l d e v e l o p - ment h a s t a k e n p l a c e i n t h e w h o l e r e g i o n , p a r t i c u l a r l y s i n c e 1965.

The r e l a t i v e g r o w t h o f i n d u s t r i a l p r o d u c t i o n i n t h e O b l a s t f r o m 1965-1972 was a p p r o x i m a t e l y t w i c e t h a t f o r t h e y e a r 1 9 6 5 . I n a d d i t i o n , many o f t h e i n d u s t r i e s i n t h e Mid-Angara R e g i o n a r e becoming more d e p e n d e n t o n e n e r g y and r e s o u r c e i n d u s t r i e s s u c h a s e l e c t r i c power g e n e r a t i o n , t i m b e r a n d wood p r o c e s s i n g , a n d i r o n a n d n o n f e r r o u s m e t a l s ( T a b l e 9 ) .

INDUSTRY

C e l l u l o s e C a r d b o a r d c e m e n t

B r a t s k P o p u l a t i o n I r k u t s k

A n g a r a s k

-

-

1.0 4 3 , 0 0 0 3 6 6 , 0 0 0 1 3 5 , 0 0 0

-

- 1.1

1.0 1.0 1 . 3 1 5 5 , 0 0 0 4 5 1 , 0 0 0 2 0 3 , 0 0 0

1 . 7 1 . 2 1 . 3 1 9 5 , 0 0 0 5 1 9 , 0 0 0 2 3 1 , 0 0 0

T a b l e 8. Growth r a t e o f p r o d u c t i o n i n e a c h r e g i o n o f t h e I r k u t s k

The t y p i c a l s t r u c t u r e o f i n d u s t r y i n t h e Mid-Angara Region h a s been c o n n e c t e d w i t h t h e r e g i o n a l s p e c i a l i z a t i o n o f t h e s p e - c i f i c n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s i n S i b e r i a from t h e p o i n t o f view o f t h e n a t i o n a l economy. I n 1975, 5% of t h e e l e c t r i c power, 8 % of t i m b e r ,

1 2 % o f c e l l u l o s e , 4 % of c o a l , and 7 % of p a p e r and c a r d b o a r d were produced i n I r k u t s k O b l a s t a r e a from t h e t o t a l p r o d u c t i o n o f t h e s e goods produced i n t h e USSR.

D e c i s i o n s on t h e BITPC Development, T h e i r A l t e r n a t i v e s , and S e l e c t i o n C r i t e r i a

M e t h o d o l o g i c a l Remarks

A method f o r a n a l y z i n g t h e c o n c e p t s and t h e d e v e l o p m e n t of t h e BITPC i s t o s t u d y t h e d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s e s t h a t l e d t o t h e f o r m u l a t i o n o f b a s i c s t r a t e g i e s , t o t h e f o r m a t i o n o f t h e complex, and t o t h e v a r i o u s a c t i v i t i e s t h a t c h a r a c t e r i z e i t s d e v e l o p m e n t . Such a s t u d y s h o u l d n o t b e l i m i t e d t o t h e a c t u a l d e c i s i o n s and a c t i v i t i e s t h a t o c c u r r e d i n t h e BITPC d e v e l o p m e n t . The n a t u r e a n d complex c h a r a c t e r of t h e s e d e c i s i o n s and a c t i v i t i e s c a n b e u n d e r s t o o d o n l y i f s e e n i n t h e p e r s p e c t i v e o f t h e i r a l t e r n a t i v e s , o b j e c t i v e s , and u n d e r l y i n g c o n c e p t s .

More s p e c i f i c a l l y , a n a n a l y s i s of t h e BITPC d e c i s i o n p r o - c e s s e s s h o u l d s e r v e s e v e r a l r e l a t e d p u r p o s e s :

-

T o d e s c r i b e t h e a c t u a l d e c i s i o n s a n d t h e r e s u l t i n g a c t i v i t i e s , f o c u s s e d on t h e main a s p e c t s o f t h e d e v e l o p - ment ( e n e r g y s u p p l y s y s t e m ( E S S ) , p r o d u c t i o n s e c t o r s ,

and i n f r a s t r u c t u r e )

.

T h i s s h o u l d p r o v i d e background i n f o r m a t i o n on how t h e BITPC was a c t u a l l y formed.

-

T o i n c r e a s e a n u n d e r s t a n d i n g of t h e n a t u r e of t h e B I T P C d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s e s by a n a l y z i n g p o s s i b l e development and d e c i s i o n a l t e r n a t i v e s . T h i s s h o u l d a i d i n a n under- s t a n d i n g of what c o u l d h a v e been d o n e i n t h e BITPC development.

-

T o a s s e s s d e c i s i o n m a k i n g in t h e B I T P C i n t e r m s of i t s o b j e c t i v e s and c o n c e p t s . T h i s s h o u l d a i d i n a n u n d e r - s t a n d i n g of why d e c i s i o n s on t h e BITPC d e v e l o p m e n t were c h o s e n .

The a n a l y s i s began by mapping t h e a c t u a l a c t i v i t i e s i n t h e BITPC f o r m a t i o n , e . g . , c o n s t r u c t i o n of r o a d s , dams, and i n d u s t r i a l p l a n t s . The n e x t s t a g e i n v o l v e s t h e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f t h e d e c i s i o n p o i n t s t h a t i n i t i a t e d t h e s e a c t i v i t i e s , s u c h a s a d e c r e e by t h e C o u n c i l o f M i n i s t e r s . T h e s e a r e t h e e a s y s t e p s o f t h e a n a l y s i s . The n e x t s t e p was t o i d e n t i f y a l t e r n a t i v e s , by which i s meant e i t h e r of t h e f o l l o w i n g :

-

^Variants: d i f f e r e n t s t r u c t u r a l , t e c h n o l o g i c a l , s i t i n g , t i m i n g , o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r t h e s o l u t i o n o f t h e t a s k o f economic and s o c i a l d e v e l o p m e n t ; s e l e c t i o n o f g o a l s f o r t h e same s y s t e m o r s u b s y s t e m .

-

Strategies: f e a s i b l e c o m b i n a t i o n s o f s t r u c t u r a l , t e c h - n o l o g i c a l , s i t i n g , t i m i n g , g o a l s e l e c t i o n s , and o t h e r v a r i a n t s f o r t h e development of a complex s o c i o e c o n o m i c s y s t e m .

-

Scenarios: d e t a i l e d d e s c r i p t i o n s o f s t r a t e g i e s , t a k i n g n e c e s s a r y t i m e s e q u e n c e s i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n and p r o j e c t - i n g p o s s i b l e c o n s e q u e n c e s o f s t r a t e g i e s .

R e t r o s p e c t i v e l y , d e t e r m i n i n g a l t e r n a t i v e s i s more d i f f i c u l t , s i n c e o n l y a l i m i t e d number o f a l t e r n a t i v e s may h a v e been c o n s i d e r e d a t t h e t i m e and e v e n t h o s e a r e u s u a l l y c l o u d e d by t h e l o n g t i m e p e r i o d s i n c e t h e n . The a p p r o a c h u s e d i n t h e a n a l y s i s was t o t i e t h e q u e s t i o n s f o r a l t e r n a t i v e s c l o s e l y t o t h e d e c i s i o n p o i n t s and t o s e a r c h f o r a c t u a l and d i s c u s s e d v a r i a n t s and s t r a t e g i e s a s w e l l a s f o r documented and l o g i c a l a l t e r n a t i v e s .

The i n t e r v i e w s were f a c i l i t a t e d by t h e f a c t t h a t we were a b l e t o i n q u i r e a b o u t s p e c i f i c d e c i s i o n p o i n t s and a l s o t h a t we c o u l d g e n e r a t e i d e a s a b o u t p o s s i b l e p a s t a l t e r n a t i v e s . Those i n t e r v i e w e d u s u a l l y g e n e r a t e d some r e a l a l t e r n a t i v e s , which w e r e d i s c u s s e d , examined, and e v a l u a t e d b e f o r e t h e d e c i s i o n was made, o r t h e y e x p r e s s e d t h e i r own v i e w a b o u t p o s s i b l e a l t e r n a t i v e s . I n a d d i t i o n , we u s e d s e v e r a l w r i t t e n s o u r c e s t o i d e n t i f y a l t e r n a t i v e s s u c h a s P a r t y C o n g r e s s m a t e r i a l s , p a p e r s and s p e e c h e s from [ 1 7 ] , S o v i e t p u b l i c a t i o n s a b o u t t h e BITPC ( o n l y a v e r y l i m i t e d number were a v a i l a b l e i n E n g l i s h ) , and working m a t e r i a l s , g r a p h s , and f i g u r e s c o l l e c t e d d u r i n g t h e f i e l d t r i p .

I n g e n e r a l , we h a v e c l a s s i f i e d t h e a l t e r n a t i v e s i n t o t h e f o l l o w i n g t h r e e c a t e g o r i e s :

-

Actual cases: s u c h a l t e r n a t i v e s were d i s c u s s e d , examined and e v a l u a t e d b e f o r e t h e d e c i s i o n was made ( e . g . , t h e a l t e r n a t i v e s f o r t h e s i t i n g B r a t s k c i t y ) ;

-

Documented alternatives: a l t e r n a t i v e s t h a t w e r e mentioned i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e o r were d i s c u s s e d i n t h e i n t e r v i e w s a s p o s s i b l e o r c o n c e i v a b l e ( e . g . , d i f f e r e n t c o n c e p t s o f t h e A n g a r a - Y e n i s e i C a s c a d e ) ;

-

Assumed alternatives: s u c h a l t e r n a t i v e s e x i s t e d l o g i c a l l y , a n d p r e s u m a b l y were c o n s i d e r e d , b u t we d o n o t h a v e any s p e c i f i c i n f o r m a t i o n a b o u t them ( e . g . , t h e e n e r g y e x p o r t s t r a t e g y ) .

The f i n a l s t e p of t h e a n a l y s i s was t h e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f

g o a l s , o b j e c t i v e s , and c r i t e r i a , a g a i n s t which v a r i a n t s , s t r a t e g i e s ,

and s c e n a r i o s were e v a l u a t e d . Goals, o b j e c t i v e s , and c r i t e r i a s t a n d i n a h i e r a r c h i c a l r e l a t i o n s h i p t h a t i s i m p l i e d i n t h e f o l l o w - i n g d e f i n i t i o n s :

-

Goals: g e n e r a l , q u a l i t a t i v e f o r m u l a t i o n of t h e d e s i r a b l e s t a t e s of a socioeconomic system ( e . g . , t o i n c r e a s e t h e s t a n d a r d of l i v i n g of t h e p o p u l a t i o n ) ;

-

O b j e c t i v e s : i n t e r m e d i a t e s p e c i f i c a t i o n s of g o a l s , e i t h e r i n terms of ways how t o a c h i e v e them o r i n t e r m s of a l o g i c a l e x p l i c a t i o n ( e .g

. ,

improved housing c o n d i t i o n s ) ;

-

C r i t e r i a : ( " a t t r i b u t e s " ) o p e r a t i o n a l and w e l l d e f i n e d measures a g a i n s t which a c t u a l d e c i s i o n s can be e v a l u a t e d w i t h r e s p e c t t o g o a l s and o b j e c t i v e s ( e . g . , o p e r a t i o n c o s t s )

.

Sometimes " t a s k " i s used t o s p e c i f y g o a l s i n t e r m s of a c t i v - i t i e s t h a t a r e i n t e n d e d t o a c h i e v e h i g h e r l e v e l o b j e c t i v e s . Iden- t i f y i n g g o a l s and o b j e c t i v e s r e t r o s p e c t i v e l y p r o v e s e x c e e d i n g l y d i f f i c u l t , mainly because of a l a c k of i n f o r m a t i o n and because of changes i n g o a l s and o b j e c t i v e s a f t e r d e c i s i o n s were t a k e n . The approach c o n c e n t r a t e d t h e r e f o r e on t h e more fmmediate c r i t e r i a t h a t were d i s c u s s e d i n t h e a c t u a l d e c i s i o n s , o r t h a t were i m p l i e d by t h e d e c i s i o n s t a k e n .

C r i t e r i a and o b j e c t i v e s t h u s i d e n t i f i e d a r e u s u a l l y much more c o n c r e t e and immediate, b u t t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p t o t h e g e n e r a l s u p e r - g o a l s may be m i s s i n g . O b j e c t i v e s and c r i t e r i a t h a t w i l l be d i s - c u s s e d f a l l i n t o t h e f o l l o w i n g t h r e e c a t e g o r i e s :

-

Those o b j e c t i v e s and c r i t e r i a t h a t were c l e a r l y iden- t i f i e d , d i s c u s s e d and e x p l i c i t l y t r a d e d o f f i n t h e decisionmaking p r o c e s s ( e . g . , t r a n s p o r t a t i o n t i m e , c o s t of c o n s t r u c t i o n , and r e d u c t i o n of p o l l u t i o n i n t h e d e c i s i o n t o s i t e B r a t s k c i t y ) .

-

Those c r i t e r i a and o b j e c t i v e s t h a t a r e i m p l i e d by t h e s e l e c t i o n of t h e f i n a l d e c i s i o n ( e . g . , e f f i c i e n c y c r i t e r i a t h a t l e d t o t h e e l i m i n a t i o n of t h e two s m a l l dams i n t h e o r i g i n a l l y six-dam s t r a t e g y f o r t h e Angara- Y e n i s e i C a s c a d e ) .

-

Those o b j e c t i v e s t h a t could be i n f e r r e d from t h e S o v i e t documents ( e . g . , r a i s i n g t h e s t a n d a r d o f l i v i n g , pro- t e c t i n g t h e e n v i r o n m e n t ) , and which were l i n k e d t o t h e d e c i s i o n s under c o n s i d e r a t i o n i n d i r e c t l y a s i m p l i c i t s u p e r g o a l s , d i s a g g r e g a t e d o b j e c t s , and t h e i r i n t e r a c t i o n s . We a p p l i e d t h i s a n a l y s i s of d e c i s i o n s , t h e i r a l t e r n a t i v e s and c r i t e r i a t o f o u r a s p e c t s of t h e BITPC decisionmaking p r o c e s s : s t r a t e g y e v o l u t i o n , development of t h e power system, p r o d u c t i o n s e c t o r development, and i n f r a s t r u c t u r e development. These f o u r

a s p e c t s r e f l e c t t h e l o g i c a l s e q u e n c e o f d e c i s i o n m a k i n g i n t h e BITPC. F i r s t b a s i c s t r a t e g i c d e c i s i o n s had t o b e made, t h e n d e c i s i o n s a b o u t t h e power s y s t e m were made; on t h e b a s i s of t h e d e s i g n e d c a p a c i t i e s and s i t e s of t h e dams i n t h e power s y s t e m , d e c i s i o n s a b o u t e n e r g y i n t e n s i v e a n d o t h e r i n d u s t r i e s f o l l o w e d . F i n a l l y , t h e n e c e s s a r y d e c i s i o n s on t r a n s p o r t a t i o n l i n k s and s e t t l e m e n t s had t o b e t a k e n t o p r o v i d e t h e i n d u s t r i e s w i t h t h e s o c i a l and t e c h n i c a l i n f r a s t r u c t u r e .

Our a n a l y s i s was n o t meant t o e v a l u a t e p a s t d e c i s i o n p r o - c e s s e s i n t h e BITPC. The l i m i t e d s t u d y t i m e , t h e l i m i t e d a v a i l - a b i l i t y of w r i t t e n m a t e r i a l , and o t h e r l i m i t a t i o n s o f r e t r o - s p e c t i v e c a s e s t u d i e s ( s e e t h e I n t r o d u c t i o n t o t h i s R e p o r t ) made s u c h a n e v a l u a t i o n v i r t u a l l y i m p o s s i b l e . C o n s e q u e n t l y , s t a t e - ments on d e c i s i o n s , u n d e r l y i n g a l t e r n a t i v e s and o b j e c t i v e s c a n b e t a k e n o n l y a s examples f o r a much d e e p e r s t r u c t u r e d r e a l d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s d u r i n g t h e BITPC f o r m a t i o n .

The f o l l o w i n g f i v e s e c t i o n s a r e o r g a n i z e d a l o n g o u r frame- work f o r s t u d y i n g t h e BITPC d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s and t h e f o u r - s t e p l o g i c of t h e BITPC d e c i s i o n m a k i n g . F i r s t , a n i n t r o d u c t i o n t o t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e BITPC i s p r e s e n t e d which o u t l i n e s t h e b a s i c s t e p s i n t h e f o r m a t i o n and development o f t h e BITPC. The s e c o n d s e c t i o n a n a l y z e s t h e s t r a t e g y e v o l u t i o n o f t h e BITPC, and d i s c u s s e s i n g r e a t e r d e t a i l i n f o r m a t i o n p r e s e n t e d i n t h e f i r s t s e c t i o n . The d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s e s i n v o l v e d i n t h e power s y s t e m d e v e l o p m e n t , i n t h e development of t h e p r o d u c t i o n s e c t o r , and i n i n f r a s t r u c t u r e development a r e a n a l y z e d i n t h e f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n s . F o r e a c h o f t h e s e a s p e c t s t h e b a s i c d e c i s i o n s , t h e i r a l t e r n a t i v e s , and t h e i r e v a l u a t i v e c r i t e r i a w i l l b e d i s c u s s e d .

Overview of t h e BITPC Development

The b a s i c s t r a t e g y f o r t h e BITPC was l a i d down i n t h e 1920s by t h e S i b e r i a Bureau o f GOSPLAN. I t c o n s i s t e d o f a scheme f o r t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f h y d r o e l e c t r i c power r e s o u r c e s of t h e u p p e r and m i d d l e r e a c h e s o f t h e Angara R i v e r . The scheme a l s o p r o p o s e d t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n of two i n d u s t r i a l complexes [ I 21

.

S u b s e q u e n t work by t h e m u l t i d i s c i p l i n a r y Angara Bureau i n Moscow l e d t o a more d e t a i l e d s t r a t e g y t h a t was c o m p l e t e d i n 1934.

The number o f HEPSs was expanded from t h r e e t o s i x , and t h e s e s i x were d i v i d e d i n t o f o u r g r o u p s [ 1 2 ] . Of t h e s i x s t a t i o n s t h e B r a t s k HEPS was c o n s i d e r e d t h e most p r o m i s i n g from t h e p o i n t o f view of i t s e f f i c i e n c y i n t h e e n t i r e scheme [ 1 2 1 . However, i t was deemed u n f e a s i b l e and i n e x p e d i e n t t o b e g i n w i t h t h e c o n s t r u c - t i o n o f g i g a n t i c HEPSs. Thus, i t was p r o p o s e d t h a t a " p i o n e e r "

i n d u s t r y b e d e v e l o p e d f i r s t i n t h e more a c c e s s i b l e r e g i o n o f I r k u t s k . T h i s would make it p o s s i b l e t o p r o v i d e s u b s e q u e n t con- s t r u c t i o n a c t i v i t i e s i n t h e B r a t s k a r e a w i t h t h e n e c e s s a r y b u i l d i n g m a t e r i a l s , f u e l , and e l e c t r i c power; i t would a l s o " a c c u m u l a t e e x p e r i e n c e and know-how i n t h e s e v e r e c l i m a t i c c o n d i t i o n s " and p r o v i d e t r a i n i n g f o r t h e n e c e s s a r y p e r s o n n e l . T h i s m u l t i s t a g e

a p p r o a c h g a v e p r i o r i t y t o t h e more a c c e s s i b l e B a i k a l Region (now t h e Irkutsk-Cheremkhovo TPC) w i t h i n 70 km o f I r k u t s k . The scheme was approved i n 1936 by a team of e x p e r t s o f GOSPLAN.

The s t r a t e g y d e v e l o p e d by t h e Angara Bureau f o r t h e B r a t s k a r e a [ 1 2 ] e n v i s a g e d t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f power i n t e n s i v e i n d u s - t r i e s i . e . , f e r r o u s a n d n o n f e r r o u s m e t a l l u r g y , p r o d u c t i o n o f s y n t h e t i c m a t e r i a l and l i q u i d f u e l from c o a l , n i t r o - h y d r o g e n o u s compounds, c h l o r i d e , and s i l i c a t e and a l u m i n o - s i l i c a t e e l e c t - t h e r m i c s . G r a i n growing and l i v e s t o c k r a i s i n g i n p l a c e s o f popu- l a t i o n c o n c e n t r a t i o n were p l a n n e d . Development o f t h e t i m b e r i n d u s t r y i n t h e Region was e x p e c t e d t o p r o v i d e c o n s t r u c t i o n

p r o j e c t s w i t h lumber; i t would a l s o i n c l u d e p r o d u c t i o n o f f i n i s h e d goods on t h e s p o t .

The Second World War i n t e r r u p t e d t h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f t h e s t r a t e g y f o r t h e development of t h e Angara R i v e r . A t t h e end of t h e war, p r i o r i t y a p p e a r s t o have been g i v e n t o a l l e a r l i e r recom- m e n d a t i o n s o f t h e Angara Bureau f o r t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f " s u p e r l o n g r a i l w a y l i n e s " t h a t would " b r i n g t h e S o v i e t F a r E a s t c l o s e r t o t h e economic c e n t e r o f S i b e r i a " [ I 21

.

I n 1949, t h e Angara R i v e r bank i n t h e B r a t s k a r e a was c o n n e c t e d by r a i l w i t h T a i s h e t t o t h e w e s t ; t h i s l i n k would b e i m p o r t a n t i n t h e l a t t e r c o n s t r u c - t i o n of t h e BAM d u r i n g t h e 1970s.

D i r e c t i v e s o f t h e 1 9 t h C o n g r e s s o f t h e Communist P a r t y o f t h e S o v i e t Union (CPSU) f o r t h e n a t i o n a l economic d e v e l o p m e n t i n 1951- 1955 e n v i s a g e d b e g i n n i n g t h e work by making u s e o f " t h e hydropower r e s o u r c e s o f t h e Angara R i v e r i n o r d e r t o d e v e l o p aluminium,

c h e m i c a l , mining and o t h e r i n d u s t r i e s on t h e b a s i s o f c h e a p e l e c t r i c power and l o c a l raw m a t e r i a l s " [ 2 3 ] .

I n 1953, t h e G i d r o p r o j e k t e v o l v e d a new scheme f o r d e v e l o p i n g hydropower e n g i n e e r i n g a l o n g t h e Angara which t o o k i n t o a c c o u n t t h e d i s c o v e r i e s of new d e p o s i t s o f raw m a t e r i a l s , m a i n l y i r o n o r e . I t a l s o r e f l e c t e d c h a n g e s i n t h e economic p o t e n t i a l , t h e a b i l i t y t o a p p l y new e n g i n e e r i n g s o l u t i o n s , a n d c h a n g e s i n r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r s e v e r a l t y p e s o f p r o d u c t s a s w e l l a s t h e i r m a n u f a c t u r i n g e f f i c i e n c y [ I 21

.

The scheme e n v i s a g e d t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n of s i x HEPSs w i t h a t o t a l c a p a c i t y of more t h a n 10 m i l l i o n kW. The B r a t s k HEPS was t o b e t h e most p o w e r f u l . The scheme " d e f i n e d t h e s c o p e o f t h e consumption of e n e r g y by m a j o r i n d u s t r i e s , t h e i r l o c a t i o n , a n d t h e d i r e c t i o n o f t r a n s p o r t a r t e r i e s " [ 5 ]

.

G u i d e l i n e s f o r t h i s scheme were grouped i n t o f o u r c a t e g o - r i e s [ 8 ] :

-

Meeting t h e growing r e q u i r e m e n t s o f t h e n a t i o n a l economy f o r c h e a p e l e c t r i c power, p o w e r - i n t e n s i v e p r o d u c t s of t h e c h e m i c a l i n d u s t r y and t h e f e r r o u s and n o n f e r r o u s m e t a l l u r g i c a l i n d u s t r i e s , a s w e l l a s t h e p r o d u c t s o f t h e t i m b e r p r o c e s s i n g a n d m i n i n g i n d u s t r i e s ;

-

I n c r e a s i n g t h e s o c i a l p r o d u c t i v i t y of t h e r e s o u r c e d e v e l o p m e n t i n t h e Mid-Angara Region on t h e b a s i s o f modern t e c h n o l o g i e s ;

-

P r o v i d i n g t h e most f a v o r a b l e c o n d i t i o n s f o r a t t r a c t i n g and s e t t l i n g manpower;

-

C o n v e r t i n g t h e Mid-Angara TPC i n t o a p o t e n t i a l s u p p o r t b a s e f o r d e v e l o p i n g new t e r r i t o r i e s l o c a t e d w i t h i n t h e zone o f i n f l u e n c e o f t h e BAM a n d N o r t h - S i b e r i a n R a i l w a y . Thus, t h e u l t i m a t e a i m s o f t h e d r a f t r e g i o n a l scheme v i r t u - a l l y merged w i t h t h e m a j o r n a t i o n a l g o a l s f o r i m p r o v i n g t h e l i v i n g s t a n d a r d o f t h e S o v i e t p e o p l e by r a i s i n g t h e s o c i a l p r o d u c t i v i t y o f l a b o r on t h e b a s i s of t h e a c c e l e r a t e d t e c h n o l o g i c a l p r o g r e s s and t h e most e f f i c i e n t l o c a t i o n o f t h e p r o d u c t i o n f o r c e s [81.

C o n s t r u c t i o n o f t h e B r a t s k HEPS was a u t h o r i z e d by t h e USSR C o u n c i l o f M i n i s t e r s i n 1954. Two y e a r s l a t e r t h e C o u n c i l d e c r e e d t h e " o r g a n i z a t i o n o f a s i n g l e b a s e i n B r a t s k f o r t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f a l l p r o j e c t s i n t h e r e g i o n " [ 1 2 ] . The B r a t s k HEPS was viewed a s a key l i n k i n t h e S i b e r i a n e n e r g y s u p p l y s y s t e m (ESS) from N o v o s i b i r s k t o I r k u t s k .

The f u r t h e r n a t i o n a l economic t a s k s f o r t h e d e v e l o p m e n t of t h e BITPC w e r e g i v e n by t h e 2 0 t h C o n g r e s s of t h e CPSU. I n 1956, t h e 2 0 t h C o n g r e s s o f t h e CPSU r e s o l v e d t o p u t i n t o o p e r a t i o n t h e I r k u t s k HEPS o n t h e Angara R i v e r w i t h i n t h e Five-Year P l a n 1956- 1960. The I r k u t s k HEPS had a c a p a c i t y o f 660,000 kW and was t h e f i r s t s t a g e o f t h e B r a t s k HEPS. A l s o , t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e C e n t r a l S i b e r i a n ESS from N o v o s i b i r s k t o I r k u t s k was c o n s i d e r e d . D u r i n g t h i s p e r i o d i t was d e c i d e d t o p u t i n t o o p e r a t i o n t h e

Korschunovo i r o n o r e mine i n E a s t S i b e r i a , and t o c o n s t r u c t t h r e e aluminium p l a n t s i n S i b e r i a and f i v e c e l l u l o s e p a p e r p l a n t s i n t h e E a s t e r n r e g i o n s [ 2 6 ] .

The 23rd C o n g r e s s o f t h e CPSU i n 1966 c h o s e t o a c c e l e r a t e t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n and p u t i n t o o p e r a t i o n t h e c a p a c i t i e s o f t h e B r a t s k aluminium p l a n t , t o f i n i s h t h e f i r s t l i n e o f t h e B r a t s k t i m b e r complex, and t o s t a r t t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f t h e s e c o n d l i n e . The i n d u s t r i a l development o f t h e s e r e g i o n s was t o b e g u a r a n t e e d by t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f t h e C h r e b t o v a y a - U s t - I l i m s k and t h e R e s c h o t y - Bogouchany r a i l w a y s [ 3 0 ] .

The 2 4 t h C o n g r e s s o f t h e CPSU i n 1971 d e c i d e d t o e n s u r e t h e f u r t h e r d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e BITPC, t o f i n i s h t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f t h e B r a t s k aluminium p l a n t and t h e B r a t s k t i m b e r complex i n t h e Five-Year P l a n 1971-1 975. I t was a l s o d e c i d e d t o p u t i n t o o p e r a - t i o n t h e f i r s t a g g r e g a t e s o f t h e U s t - I l i m s k HEPS, and t o b e g i n c o n s t r u c t i o n o f t h e U s t - I l i m s k t i m b e r complex [ 2 9 1 .

The " G u i d e l i n e s f o r t h e Development o f t h e N a t i o n a l Economy

~ f t h e USSR f o r 1976-198O1', drawn u p a t t h e 2 5 t h C o n g r e s s o f t h e CPSU i n 1976, r e s o l v e d t o f i n i s h i n p r i n c i p l e t h e f o r m a t i o n o f

t h e B r a t s k - U s t - I l i m s k TPC, t o p u t i n t o f u l l o p e r a t i o n t h e U s t - I l i m s k HEPS, and t o c o n s t r u c t t h e c e l l u l o s e p l a n t w i t h t h e p a r t i c - i p a t i o n o f t h e CMEA c o u n t r i e s 1271.

T h o s e r e s o l u t i o n s s e t t h e main n a t i o n a l t a s k s f o r d e v e l o p i n g t h e BITPC f r o m t h e v e r y b e g i n n i n g i n 1952 t o 1 9 8 0 . T h e s e t a s k s had b e e n f u l f i l l e d i n g e n e r a l t e r m s , a n d f o l l o w e d i n p r i n c i p l e t h e m a i n d i r e c t i o n w h i c h had b e e n o u t l i n e d i n t h e b e g i n n i n g of t h e 1 9 5 0 s . A l l t h e s e t a s k s w e r e , and s t i l l a r e , c o n n e c t e d w i t h t a s k s f o r t h e f o r m a t i o n o f t h e s o c i a l i n f r a s t r u c t u r e . D u r i n g t h i s t i m e , new t o w n s s u c h a s B r a t s k , U s t - I l i m s k , and S h e l e s r o g o r s k g r e w w i t h t h e TPC i n f r a s t r u c t u r e ; some h u n d r e d s o f t h o u s a n d s o f p e o p l e were s e t t l e d h e r e a n d o p e n e d a l a r g e a r e a w i t h i n t h e T a i g a f o r c i v i l i z a t i o n .

The f i r s t two i n d u s t r i a l c o m p l e x e s i n t h e B r a t s k - I l i m s k a r e a w e r e t i m b e r a n d i r o n o r e , b o t h s t a r t e d i n 1 9 5 8 . Each o f t h e s e r e f l e c t t h e way i n w h i c h t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f B r a t s k - I l i m s k was a n i n t e g r a l p a r t o f n a t i o n a l e c o n o m i c p o l i c y .

The t i m b e r complex was n o t e n e r g y i n t e n s i v e , and t h u s would n o t n o r m a l l y h a v e r e c e i v e d t o p p r i o r i t y i n t h e e v o l u t i o n o f t h e p r o g r a m t o d e v e l o p t h e r e s o u r c e s o f t h e B r a t s k - I l i m s k a r e a . How- e v e r , a l a c k o f p r o d u c t i o n c a p a c i t y i n t h e USSR f o r v i s c o s e t i r e c o r d a n d t h e s u d d e n u n a v a i l a b i l i t y o f i m p o r t s l e d t o t h e d e c i s i o n t o u p g r a d e t h e p r i o r i t y a s s i g n e d t o t h e t i m b e r c o m p l e x .

The i r o n o r e complex was i n i t i a t e d a s p a r t o f t h e e f f o r t s aimed a t d e v e l o p i n g a n o t h e r m e t a l l u r g i c a l b a s e o f t h e c o u n t r y , i n a d d i t i o n t o t h o s e a t D o n b a s s , U r a l s , K a r a g a n d a and K u z b a s s .

The d e c r e e t o e s t a b l i s h t h e B r a t s k a l u m i n i u m complex was i s s u e d i n 1 9 6 8 . The complex i s e x p e c t e d t o h a v e t h e w o r l d ' s l a r g e s t o u t p u t . A l t h o u g h a l l o f i t s p r i n c i p l e raw m a t e r i a l - - b a u x i t e c o n v e r t e d i n t o a l u m i n a - - m u s t b e i m p o r t e d f r o m o n e o f t h e 1 5 a l u m i n a p l a n t s i n t h e USSR o r f r o m f o r e i g n s o u r c e s s u c h a s Hungary, Greece, and New G u i n e a , t h e u n u s u a l l y low c o s t o f e l e c - t r i c i t y more t h a n o f f s e t s t h e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t d i s a d v a n t a g e .

The BITPC owes i t s s i g n i f i c a n c e t o t h e f a c t t h a t it l i e s a t t h e i n t e r s e c t i o n o f t h e BAM and t h e Angara R i v e r . The c o n t i n u a - t i o n o f t h e BAM ( c o n s t r u c t i o n i s c u r r e n t l y u n d e r way) p a r a l l e l s t h e T r a n s - S i b e r i a n R a i l r o a d r o u g h l y 500 m i l e s t o t h e n o r t h . I t o p e n s u p a v a s t a r e a r i c h i n a v a r i e t y o f m i n e r a l , e n e r g y , a n d f o r e s t r e s o u r c e s . The Angara R i v e r f l o w s f r o m Lake B a i k a l n o r t h - w e s t t o i t s c o n f l u e n c e w i t h t h e Y e n i s e i and f r o m t h e r e t o t h e A r c t i c Ocean. I t r e p r e s e n t s a h u g e hydropower s o u r c e . The B r a t s k dam, a l m o s t 5 km l o n g , i s t h e c e n t e r p i e c e i n t h e s e r i e s o f h y d r o e l e c t r i c p l a n t s b u i l t t o h a r n e s s t h i s power; it p r o v i d e s t h e A n g a r a R i v e r c r o s s i n g f o r t h e f i r s t p a r t o f t h e BAM, b u i l t d u r i n g t h e p e r i o d 1946-1 955.

The e a s t e r n r e g i o n s o f t h e USSR w i l l c o n t i n u e t o d e v e l o p a t p r i o r i t y r a t e s . E n e r g y - i n t e n s i v e i n d u s t r i e s , t h e f u e l i n d u s t r y ,

and a g r i c u l t u r e , and s i m u l t a n e o u s l y t h e e n t i r e s o c i a l i n f r a s t r u c - t u r e ( i n c l u d i n g h o u s i n g , p u b l i c u t i l i t i e s , c u l t u r a l and community i n s t i t u t i o n s , and urban t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ) w i l l be expanded a t e s p e c i a l l y h i g h r a t e s i n S i b e r i a and t h e S o v i e t F a r E a s t .

S t r a t e g y E v o l u t i o n o f t h e BITPC

The s t r a t e g i e s f o r t h e BITPC development have b e e n a n i n t e - g r a l p a r t o f t h e n a t i o n a l economic p o l i c y of t h e USSR. The main l i n e s o f s t r a t e g y development, d e c i s i o n s , and a c t i v i t i e s a r e shown i n F i g u r e 6. A t t h e bottom row a r e t h e main s t a g e s i n p l a n n i n g and d e c i s i o n m a k i n g f o r t h e BITPC development between 1 9 2 5 and 1 9 8 2 . The t o p t h r e e rows show t h e a c t i v i t i e s t h a t were d e r i v e d from t h e f o r m u l a t i o n o f s t r a t e g i e s and b a s i c d e c i s i o n s d i v i d e d i n t o power systems development, development p r o d u c t i o n s e c t o r s , and i n f r a s t r u c t u r e development.

The main s t r a t e g i c e v o l u t i o n t o o k p l a c e b e f o r e t h e d e c i s i o n t o c o n s t r u c t t h e B r a t s k HEPS i n 1 9 5 2 . I t c o n s i s t e d m a i n l y o f s p e c i f i c a t i o n s o f t h e Angara Cascade and of a d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f i n d u s t r i e s o f s p e c i a l i z a t i o n and s e t t l e m e n t p a t t e r n s .

Energy s u p p l y i s one o f t h e most i m p o r t a n t p r e r e q u i s i t e s f o r c o l o n i z i n g t h e v i r g i n E a s t S i b e r i a n t e r r i t o r i e s , f o r making them h o s p i t a b l e f o r human b e i n g s , and f o r e x p l o i t i n g t h e r i c h n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s . I n t h i s r e s p e c t , t h e Angara-Yenisei w a t e r power p r o j e c t i s p a r t of t h e l a r g e r s t r a t e g y f o r t h e r e g i o n a l d e v e l o p m e n t of E a s t S i b e r i a . The enormous i n v e s t m e n t c o s t s of c o n s t r u c t i n g huge HEPS i n B r a t s k , U s t - I l i m s k , and Bogouchany c a n be c o u n t e d a s p a r t of t h e c o s t s f o r c o l o n i z i n g and opening up t h e r i c h m i n e r a l and f o r e s t r e s o u r c e s of t h i s Region.

Water power r e s o u r c e development was t h e s t a r t i n g p o i n t of a l l s t r a t e g i c d e c i s i o n s i n t h e BITPC. F i g u r e 6 shows t h e t y p i c a l d e c i s i o n s and a c t i v i t i e s f o r dam c o n s t r u c t i o n a s l a i d down by t h e documents of t h e Congress o f t h e CPSU. These were accompanied by d i r e c t i v e s t o e x p l o r e p o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r t h e f u r t h e r development of t h e p r o d u c t i o n s e c t o r s , i n a c c o r d a n c e w i t h t h e development of t h e e n e r g y r e s o u r c e s . L a t e r , e i t h e r by d e c r e e o f t h e USSR C o u n c i l of M i n i s t e r s o r t h r o u g h t h e Five-Year P l a n , p l a n s f o r t h e con- s t r u c t i o n o f i n d u s t r i a l f a c i l i t i e s were approved.

The p l a n s and d e c i s i o n s f o r i n f r a s t r u c t u r e development were mainly g e n e r a t e d from t h e need t o p r o v i d e r o a d s and o t h e r t r a n s - p o r t a t i o n means f o r t h e a l r e a d y planned i n d u s t r i a l f a c i l i t i e s o r dams, and t o p r o v i d e h o u s i n g and o t h e r accommodations f o r t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n workers and o t h e r p e r s o n n e l .

P r i o r i t i e s f o r t h e development of i n z u s t r i e s and i n f r a s t r u c - t u r e a r e d e c i d e d on t h e l e v e l of t h e USSR C o u n c i l o f M i n i s t e r s . The e v o l u t i o n of t h e b a s i c d e c i s i o n and p r i o r i t i e s was a s t e p - w i s e l e a r n i n g p r o c e s s , i n which i n i t i a l s t r a t e g i e s underwent s e v e r a l m o d i f i c a t i o n s . We a r e l a c k i n g i n f o r m a t i o n , however,

a b o u t w h e t h e r t h e b a s i c s t r a t e g y , namely t o d e v e l o p t h e h y d r o - power r e s o u r c e s o f t h e A n g a r a a n d t o d e v e l o p e n e r g y - i n t e n s i v e i n d u s t r i e s i n c o n n e c t i o n w i t h t h e dam c o n s t r u c t i o n , had a n y

s e r i o u s a l t e r n a t i v e s , s u c h a s t o g i v e p r i o r i t i e s t o o t h e r r e g i o n s , o r t o l i m i t s e t t l e m e n t s t o t h e b a s i c n e e d s f o r dam c o n s t r u c t i o n a n d o p e r a t i o n .

Our i n f o r m a t i o n a b o u t t h e b a s i c o b j e c t i v e s o f t h e Angara- Y e n i s e i d e v e l o p m e n t becomes c l e a r e r when we g o i n t o s p e c i f i c v a r i a n t s o f t h e BITPC d e v e l o p m e n t . With r e g a r d t o t h e g l o b a l

s t r a t e g y o f h y d r o p o w e r r e s o u r c e s d e v e l o p m e n t a n d t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f e n e r g y - i n t e n s i v e i n d u s t r i e s , t h r e e m a i n o b j e c t i v e s seem t o d o m i n a t e :

-

To p r o v i d e t h e n a t i o n a l economy w i t h c h e a p e l e c t r i c i t y ;

-

To d i r e c t l y d e v e l o p t h e r e g i o n a l economy;

-

To p r o v i d e a manpower a n d c o n s t r u c t i o n b a s e f o r t h e f u r t h e r d e v e l o p m e n t o f a d j a c e n t t e r r i t o r i e s .

Power S y s t e m D e v e l o p m e n t

The e x p l o i t a t i o n o f t h e r i c h w a t e r power r e s o u r c e s o f E a s t S i b e r i a m u s t b e u n d e r s t o o d a s a r e s u l t o f s e v e r a l c r o s s - c u t t i n g and o v e r l a p p i n g d e v e l o p m e n t a s p e c t s o f t h e USSR. T h e s e a s p e c t s a r e :

-

The r e g i o n a l s y s t e m s d e v e l o p m e n t a s p e c t ;

-

T h e n a t i o n a l e n e r g y demand a n d s u p p l y a s p e c t ;

-

T h e a s p e c t o f embedding l o c a l l y bound HEP p l a n t s i n t h e r e g i o n a l and n a t i o n a l ESS.

The e x p l o i t a t i o n o f w a t e r r e s o u r c e s p l a y s a n i m p o r t a n t r o l e i n t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f ESSs i n USSR. Over a f i v e - y e a r p e r i o d , t h e a v e r a g e a n n u a l g r o w t h o f power g e n e r a t i o n c a p a c i t y a n d power p r o - d u c t i o n b e t w e e n 1950 a n d 1 9 7 5 was i n t h e r a n g e o f 7 t o 12 p e r c e n t . I n 1 9 6 0 , o n e - f i f t h o f t h i s c a p a c i t y was g e n e r a t e d by HEPSs (see T a b l e 1 0 ) . S i n c e t h e n t h e s h a r e o f h y d r o e l e c t r i c power c a p a c i t i e s and h y d r o e l e c t r i c power g e n e r a t i o n h a s s l o w l y d e c l i n e d . C o n s i d - e r i n g t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r HEPSs i n t h e A n g a r a - Y e n i s e i R i v e r s y s t e m w i t h i n t h e f r a m e w o r k o f t h e USSR ESS, i t i s n e c e s s a r y t o c o n s i d e r s e v e r a l p o s i t i v e and n e g a t i v e s o c i o e c o n o m i c e f f e c t s o f h y d r o e l e c t r i c power c o n s t r u c t i o n i n E a s t S i b e r i a , w h i c h a r e i m p o r t a n t d e c i s i o n m a k i n g c r i t e r i a .

The p o s i t i v e e f f e c t s a r e :

-

Low power g e n e r a t i o n c o s t s ( t w o t o t h r e e t i m e s l e s s t h a n V o l g a HEPSs) ;

Table 10. USSR power generation system. *Data of the national economy of the USSR compiled from the 1970 StatisticaZ Yearbook, Statistika, Moscow, 1971. **Directives of the 25th Congress of the CPSU, Gospolitizdat, Moscow.

9 ANNUAL** %

-

5.6

-

6.1

-

5.2 -

1975* 218.0 41.0 18.8 103~8.6 126.0 12.1

1950* 1960* 66.7 14.8 22.2 292.3 50.9 17.4

@ ANNUAL* % 5.6 5.6 7.0 0.3

19.6 3.2 16.3 91.2 12.7 13.9

Capacity total Capacity hydroelectric power stations Share hydroelectric power stations Production total Production hydroelectric power stations Share hydroelectric power stations

'IAN** 1980 285-288 -55

-

19 1340- 1380 -

b ANNUAL* % 13.0 16.5 12.3 14.8

GW GW % TWh TWh %

1970* 166.2 31.3 18.8 740.4 124.4 16.8

b ANNUAL* % 9.6 7.8 9.7 9.4

-

High r e l i a b i l i t y o f power g e n e r a t i o n ;

-

High c o n c e n t r a t i o n o f power c a p a c i t y ( a b o u t 4 0 0 0 MW e a c h ) ;

-

S t e a d y l e v e l o f power g e n e r a t i o n o v e r t h e y e a r ;

-

Improvement o f e n v i r o n m e n t a l c o n d i t i o n s .

The n e g a t i v e e f f e c t s o f A n g a r a - Y e n i s e i HEPSs compared w i t h new c o a l o r g a s - f i r e d t h e r m a l power s t a t i o n s i n t h e W e s t e r n o r U r a l R e g i o n s o f t h e USSR a r e :

-

H i g h e r i n v e s t m e n t c o s t s ;

-

L o n g e r c o n s t r u c t i o n t i m e ( 1 . 5 t o 2 t i m e s ) ;

-

D i s a d v a n t a g e s o f l a r g e c o n s t r u c t i o n s i t e s i n v i r g i n t e r r i t o r i e s combined w i t h s e v e r e c l i m a t i c a l c o n d i t i o n s ;

-

Long d i s t a n c e s f r o m t h e t r a d i t i o n a l power c o n s u m p t i o n c e n t e r s o f t h e USSR, w h i c h l e a d t o t h e need f o r e i t h e r h i g h v o l t a g e / h i g h c a p a c i t y l o n g d i s t a n c e t r a n s m i s s i o n l i n e s a n d / o r t h e l o c a l d e v e l o p m e n t o f e n e r g y - i n t e n s i v e i n d u s t r i e s .

B a s i c D e c i s i o n s

The BITPC i n c l u d e s t h r e e o f f o u r HEPSs t h a t a r e e i t h e r b u i l t , u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n , o r p l a n n e d f o r t h e Mid-Angara ESS a s a p a r t o f t h e A n g a r a - Y e n i s e i C a s c a d e . ( S e e T a b l e 1 1 . )

T a b l e 1 1 . The Mid-Angara ESS*.

*Data f o r t h e i n s t a l l e d c a p a c i t y and t h e o u t p u t of HEPSs on t h e Angara-Yenisei Cascade a r e i n [ 2 3 ] .

**These s t a t i o n s belong t o t h e BITPC.

H y d r o e l e c t r i c Power S t a t i o n I r k u t s k B r a t s k * * Ust-Ilimsk**

Bogouchany **

C a p a c i t y (GW)

-66 4.50 4.32 4 . 0 0 C o n s t r u c t i o n Time

1950 - 1959

1955 - 1964

1966

-

¹⁹⁷⁸

1978 - 1982

Maximum Output (TWh)

4.5 22.6 21.9 1 9 . 8

The b a s i c d e c i s i o n s r e l a t e d t o t h e power s y s t e m d e v e l o p m e n t a r e shown i n F i g u r e 6 . When t h e 1 9 t h C o n g r e s s o f t h e CPSU made t h e d e c i s i o n i n 1952 t o c o n s t r u c t t h e A n g a r a - Y e n i s e i C a s c a d e , t h e I r k u t s k HEPS was a l r e a d y u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n [ 2 3 ] . T h i s s t a - t i o n c o m p l e t e d t h e i n d u s t r i a l b a s e o f t h e I r k u t s k - C h e r e m k o v o TPC, w h i c h l a t e r p l a y e d a n i m p o r t a n t r o l e a s a p o i n t o f d e p a r t u r e a n d s u p p o r t b a s i s f o r t h e BITPC. The f i r s t p r e p a r a t i o n s f o r t h e A n g a r a - Y e n i s e i p r o j e c t a n d r e l a t e d i n d u s t r i a l n o d e s b e g a n 50 y e a r s a g o , b u t a t t h a t t i m e t h e USSR economy l a c k e d t h e enormous means f o r i t s r e a l i z a t i o n . A f t e r t h e Second World War, t h e p r o j e c t was t a k e n up a g a i n d u r i n g t h e 1947 C o n f e r e n c e o n t h e A n g a r a - Y e n i s e i d e v e l o p m e n t a n d t h e n p r e p a r e d f o r t h e b a s i c d e c i - s i o n o f t h e 1 9 t h C o n g r e s s o f t h e CPSU [ 2 3 1 .

A l t e r n a t i v e s

The m u l t i s t a g e d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s i n t h e c r e a t i o n o f t h e A n g a r a - Y e n i s e i power s y s t e m had t o d e a l w i t h t h r e e b a s i c t y p e s o f a l t e r n a t i v e s ( F i g u r e 7 ) . They a r e :

-

Whether t o b u i l d a dam a t a c e r t a i n p l a c e ( l a y o u t s o f t h e power s t a t i o n s y s t e m i n c l u d e d number, c a p a c i t y a n d l o c a t i o n o f s t a t i o n s ) ;

-

A l t e r n a t i v e s i n s i t i n g , d e s i g n , a n d o p e r a t i o n o f t h e HEPS;

-

D i f f e r e n t l a y o u t s of t h e e n e r g y g r i d .

The l a y o u t o f t h e Mid-Angara HEPS s y s t e m was e l a b o r a t e d i n 1954 by G i d r o p r o j e k t , Moscow; i t i n c l u d e d s i x dams a n d i n d u s t r i a l n o d e s . I n 1 9 6 1 , t h i s number was r e d u c e d t o t h e p r e s e n t four-dam s t r a t e g y , i n a c c o r d a n c e w i t h t h e g e n e r a l p o l i c y o f t h e Seven-Year P l a n 1959-1965 t o c o n c e n t r a t e o n new t h e r m a l power s t a t i o n s b a s e d o n n a t u r a l g a s , heavy f u e l , o i l , a n d c h e a p c o a l , i n o r d e r t o s a v e t i m e a n d t o u s e i n v e s t m e n t s m o s t e f f i c i e n t l y . T h i s d e c i s i o n was s u b s t a n t i a t e d a t t h e 2 1 s t C o n g r e s s o f t h e CPSU [ 2 8 ] a s f o l l o w s :

I f t h e r e l a t i o n b e t w e e n i n v e s t m e n t s f o r t h e r m a l power p l a n t s and hydropower p l a n t s i s m a i n t a i n e d , a s i t was e s t a b l i s h e d i n t h e p a s t , o n e would e i t h e r h a v e t o r e d u c e t h e p l a n n e d c o m m i s s i o n i n g o f c a p a c i t i e s , o r o n e would h a v e t o i n c r e a s e t h e i n v e s t m e n t s f o r t h e

d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e e n e r g y s e c t o r by more t h a n 20 b i l l i o n R o u b l e s * .

The f o u r dams o f t h e Mid-Angara s y s t e m h a v e s u b s e q u e n t l y b e e n c o n s t r u c t e d s i n c e 1950 o r a r e u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n , a n d w i l l b e c o m p l e t e d by 1982 ( T a b l e 1 1 ) .

*20 b i l l i o n R o u b l e s ( 1 9 5 9 ) i s e q u a l t o 2 b i l l i o n R o u b l e s ( 1 9 7 6 ) .

BOGOUCHANY

A-

S I T I N G HEPS A L T .

3 '

TECHNOLOG l CAL UST-ILIMSK S I T I N (MIN-MAX WATER

RANGES TECHNOLOG I c A L HEPS A L T .

AE]

BRATSK /

-

S I T I N G , TECHNOLOGICAL, OPERATION E . G , F I L L I N G SPEED HEPS A L T .

CONCEPTS OF A-Y CASCADE

A-1 -

NUMBER, LOCATION, C A P A C I T I E S OF HEPSS HIGHER SHARE

ENERGY STRATEGIES

A/

OF HYDROELECTRIC POWER

\MA;:," COAL

Figure 7. Power system alternatives.

I

A l t e r n a t i v e s t o s i t i n g , t e c h n o l o g i c a l d e s i g n a n d o p e r a t i o n e x i s t e d f o r e a c h o f t h e HEPSs o f t h e s y s t e m . F o r e x a m p l e , t h e l o c a t i o n o f t h e U s t - I l i m s k HEPS was c h a n g e d by a f e w k i l o m e t e r s i n o r d e r t o i m p r o v e c o n s t r u c t i o n c o n d i t i o n s . The p r e s e n t c o n - s t r u c t i o n s i t e o f t h e Bogouchany HEPS, w h i c h i s 70 km u p s t r e a m f r o m t h e s i t e , was c o n s i d e r e d f i r s t ; t h e r e a s o n f o r t h e c h a n g e was t o k e e p a n e c o n o m i c a l l y v a l u a b l e a r e a u n f l o o d e d [ 1 4 1 . B o t h e x a m p l e s show t h a t t h e r e was some f r e e d o m o f c h o i c e w h i c h l e d t o d i f f e r e n t s i t i n g v a r i a n t s .

1930

PRE-DEC I S I ON PER l OD

I n t h e p r e d e c i s i o n s t a g e , o t h e r a l t e r n a t i v e s f o r t h e t e c h - n o l o g i c a l d e s i g n a n d o p e r a t i o n o f t h e HEPSs e x i s t e d . F o r e x a m p l e , i n o r d e r t o maximize t h e f i l l i n g s p e e d o f t h e B r a t s k r e s e r v o i r , i t would h a v e b e e n n e c e s s a r y t o a c c e p t a t e m p o r a r y l o w e r i n g o f t h e B a i k a l l e v e l by u p t o f i v e m , w i t h s e v e r e c o n s e q u e n c e s f o r B a i k a l f l o r a a n d f a u n a . To p r o f i t Lake B a i k a l and t o p r o c u r e t h e t i m b e r i n t h e B r a t s k r e s e r v o i r , t h i s v a r i a n t was n o t a c c e p t e d a n d t h e f i l l i n g s p e e d was a c t u a l l y s l o w e d down. The B r a t s k HEPS r e a c h e d i t s f u l l c a p a c i t y s e v e r a l months l a t e r [ 1 2 , 1 6 ] .

The d e s i g n o f t h e U s t - I l i m s k r e s e r v o i r o r i g i n a l l y a l l o w e d t o r u n t h e power s t a t i o n w i t h a r e s e r v o i r r e g i m e o f 10 m d i f f e r - e n c e b e t w e e n maximum a n d minimum l e v e l s . A f t e r h a v i n g c o o r d i n a t e d

1940 1950

WAR AND POST-WAR P E R I O D

1960 1970 2

B l T P C FORMATION

5

B I T P C ¹⁹⁸⁰ COMPLETION

t h e r e s e r v o i r r e g i m e w i t h t h e i n t e r e s t s o f f i s h e r i e s , t h e maxi- mum-minimum d i f f e r e n c e was r e d u c e d t o 5 t o 6 m [ 1 3

I .

E n e r g y g r i d a l t e r n a t i v e s c o n c e r n m a i n l y t h e e x t e n s i o n a n d t h e l a y o u t o f t h e g r i d a n d t h e s p e c i f i c t e c h n o l o g y o f t r a n s m i s - s i o n . The c h o i c e among t h e s e a l t e r n a t i v e s i s d e t e r m i n e d by t h e p o t e n t i a l u s e o f e n e r g y f r o m t h e HEPS r a n g i n g f r o m c o n c e p t s o f l o n g - r a n g e t r a n s m i s s i o n t o f u l l l o c a l u s e o f e n e r g y . U n t i l 1 9 6 0 , l o n g - r a n g e t r a n s m i s s i o n by h i g h v o l t a g e l i n e s t o t h e w e s t e r n p a r t s o f t h e USSR was c o n s i d e r e d a p o s s i b l e a l t e r n a t i v e t o l o c a l u s e . A l t h o u g h l o n g - r a n g e t r a n s m i s s i o n was f e a s i b l e , i t s e f f i - c i e n c y was f o u n d t o b e s u b s t a n t i a l l y s m a l l e r when compared t o l o c a l u s e , p a r t i c u l a r l y f o r a l u m i n i u m p r o d u c t i o n w i t h i m p o r t e d b a u x i t e s . The c u r r e n t t e c h n o l o g y would a l l o w more e f f i c i e n t t r a n s m i s s i o n o f e l e c t r i c i t y ; b u t e f f i c i e n c y c a l c u l a t i o n s s t i l l f a v o r l o c a l u s e , a l t h o u g h t h e q u e s t i o n i s s t i l l b e i n g d e b a t e d f o r t h e Bogouchany c a s e . P e r h a p s f u t u r e t e c h n o l o g i e s o f h i g h v o l t a g e d i r e c t c u r r e n t t r a n s m i s s i o n w i l l p r o v i d e a l t e r n a t i v e s

t o t h e p r e s e n t g r i d c o n c e p t .

I n t h e d e c i s i o n m a k i n g a b o u t g r i d s , c o n s i d e r a t i o n had t o b e g i v e n t o t h e f a c t t h a t f o r some t i m e a f t e r t h e c o m p l e t i o n o f t h e HEPSs t h e r e would b e no f u l l u s e o f t h e e n e r g y by l o c a l i n d u s - t r i e s . F o r t h i s r e a s o n , a n d t o i n c r e a s e t h e f l e x i b i l i t y , r e l i - a b i l i t y , a n d e x c h a n g e c a p a c i t i e s o f t h e S i b e r i a n ESS, i n t e g r a t i o n o f t h e HEPSs i n t h e S i b e r i a n ESS was r e q u i r e d .

O b i e c t i v e s a n d C r i t e r i a

A l l d e c i s i o n s m e n t i o n e d a b o v e w e r e t a k e n i n t h e l i g h t o f c r i t e r i a a n d o b j e c t i v e s f o r t h e s e l e c t i o n o f o n e v a r i a n t o f d e v e l - opment. T h e s e c r i t e r i a a r e economic a s w e l l a s t e c h n o l o g i c a l , s o c i a l , m i l i t a r y , a n d e n v i r o n m e n t a l . F o r e x a m p l e , t o c h o o s e t h e s y s t e m , d e s i g n , a n d s i t e o f power p l a n t s t o b e b u i l t , t h e f o l l o w - i n g c r i t e r i a w e r e u s e d t o s u b s t a n t i a t e a n d t o f o r m a l i z e t h e d e c i - s i o n s [ 2 8 ] :

-

A v a i l a b i l i t y of n a t u r a l e n e r g y r e s o u r c e s i n t h e r e s p e c t i v e r e g i o n ;

-

S p e c i a l n a t u r a l , p r o d u c t i o n a n d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o n d i t i o n s o f t h e r e g i o n ;

-

A v a i l a b l e t e c h n o l o g i e s ;

-

R e q u i r e d c o n c e n t r a t i o n o f power c a p a c i t y ;

-

Volume o f i n v e s t m e n t ;

-

P e r i o d o f c o n s t r u c t i o n ;

-

E f f i c i e n c y o f i n v e s t m e n t p e r u n i t o f c a p a c i t y ;

-

E f f i c i e n c y o f o p e r a t i o n o f t h e s t a t i o n ;

-

E n v i r o n m e n t a l i m p a c t s ;

-

A l l o c a t i o n a n d f u n c t i o n o f t h e s t a t i o n i n t h e e n e r g y g r i d .

O t h e r f a c t o r s s u c h a s c o n s t r u c t i o n c o n d i t i o n s , a v a i l a b l e c o n s t r u c - t i o n a n d e n g i n e e r i n g c a p a c i t y , a n d n a t i o n a l d e f e n c e c o n s i d e r a t i o n s may a l s o b e i n c l u d e d .

T h i s s e c t i o n w i l l p r e s e n t o u r a n a l y s i s o f t h e d e c i s i o n p r o - c e s s e s i n t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f v a r i o u s p r o d u c t i o n s e c t o r s i n t h e BITPC, i n c l u d i n g t i m b e r p r o c e s s i n g , i r o n o r e , and a l u m i n i u m p r o d u c t i o n . I n a c c o r d a n c e w i t h o u r t h r e e s t e p l o g i c o f d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g and p l a n n i n g o f t h e BITPC ( p o w e r , o t h e r p r o d u c t i o n s e c t o r s ,

i n f r a s t r u c t u r e ) t h e d e c i s i o n s o n t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f p r o d u c t i o n s e c t o r s a r e c o n s i d e r e d o n t h e b a s i s o f t h e p r e v i o u s d e c i s i o n s o n power s y s t e m s d e v e l o p m e n t .

Main D e c i s i o n P o i n t s

P l a n s t o d e v e l o p e n e r g y - i n t e n s i v e p r o d u c t i o n i n t h e Angara R e g i o n d a t e b a c k t o t h e 1 9 2 0 s ( F i g u r e 6 )

.

I n t h e e a r l y p l a n s o f t h e A n g a r a s t r o i p r o j e c t , two i n d u s t r i a l c o m p l e x e s w e r e e n v i s - a g e d i n a c c o r d a n c e w i t h t h e A n g a r a C a s c a d e : o n e a t I r k u t s k - Cheremkovo R e g i o n , t h e o t h e r i n t h e Mid-Angara R e g i o n .

The A n g a r a B u r e a u of 1934 c o n s i d e r e d t h e u s e o f t i m b e r and m i n e r a l r e s o u r c e s o f t h e Mid-Angara R e g i o n and t h e f o l l o w i n g

i n d u s t r i e s : f e r r o u s a n d n o n f e r r o u s m e t a l l u r g y , p r o d u c t i o n o f s y n t h e t i c m a t e r i a l s , p r o d u c t i o n o f l i q u i d f u e l f r o m c o a l , chemi- c a l s , a n d a l u m i n i u m [ I 21

.

A s a r e s u l t o f t h e s e p l a n s , t h e f i r s t r e a l d e c i s i o n was t o d e v e l o p a " p i o n e e r " i n d u s t r y i n t h e n o r t h e a s t o f I r k u t s k , b a s e d m a i n l y o n t h e t h e r m a l e n e r g y p r o d u c e d w i t h Cheremkhovo c o a l . I t s m a i n d e v e l o p m e n t t o o k p l a c e i n t h e p r e - w a r p e r i o d (see F i g - u r e 7); t h i s i s now c a l l e d t h e I r k u t s k - C h e r e m k h o v o TPC.

T h e p r e p a r a t o r y work f o r t h e i n d u s t r i a l d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e Mid-Angara R e g i o n was c a r r i e d o u t by G i d r o p r o j e k t i n t h e e a r l y

1 9 5 0 s . B e s i d e s s p e c i f y i n g c a p a c i t i e s , l o c a t i o n , a n d o t h e r a s p e c t s o f t h e A n g a r a C a s c a d e , G i d r o p r o j e k t worked o u t schemes f o r e x p l o i t i n g t h e t i m b e r a n d i r o n o r e r e s o u r c e s , a n d p l a n n e d t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f e n e r g y - i n t e n s i v e i n d u s t r i e s s u c h a s a l u m i n - ium p r o d u c t i o n . A f t e r t h e d e c i s i o n t o c o n s t r u c t B r a t s k i n 1 9 5 4 , t h e f i r s t i n d u s t r i a l a c t i v i t i e s b e g a n w i t h t h e s e t t i n g u p o f a l a r g e number o f f o r e s t r y c e n t e r s f o r t h e w o o d f e l l i n g o p e r a t i o n s i n t h e f u t u r e r e s e r v o i r o f t h e B r a t s k dam.

On t h e b a s i s o f t h e G i d r o p r o j e k t p l a n s , t h e 2 1 s t C o n g r e s s o f t h e CPSU i n 1956 d e c i d e d t o c o n s t r u c t t h e Korshunovo i r o n o r e p l a n t i n S h e l e s n o g o r s k a n d t h e B r a t s k t i m b e r p l a n t d u r i n g t h e s e v e n y e a r p e r i o d 1958-1965. A l s o , t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f t h e B r a t s k a l u m i n i u m p l a n t was c o n s i d e r e d .

The c o n s t r u c t i o n o f t h e B r a t s k t i m b e r p l a n t b e g a n i n 1958 a n d was e s s e n t i a l l y c o m p l e t e d i n 1 9 6 6 . The t i m b e r complex p r o - d u c e s 1 m i l l i o n t / a o f wood p r o d u c t s , i n c l u d i n g c e l l u l o s e p u l p , l i n e r b o a r d p u l p , b l e a c h e d p u l p a n d v i s c o s e c e l l u l o s e . I t d r a w s o n a n a r e a o f 3 0 , 0 0 0 km2 o f woods, enough f o r 100 y e a r s s u p p l y c o r r e s p o n d i n g r o u g h l y t o t h e S i b e r i a n g r o w i n g c y c l e .

C o n s t r u c t i o n o f t h e Korshunovo i r o n o r e p l a n t a l s o b e g a n i n 1958 a n d was c o m p l e t e d b e t w e e n 1965-1967. A t p r e s e n t , i t s c a p a c - i t y i s o v e r 6 m i l l i o n t / a o f i r o n o r e c o n c e n t r a t e ( i n 1974 t h i s was 5 m i l l i o n t ) [ I ] . T h e s e i r o n o r e c o n c e n t r a t e s a r e s h i p p e d t o W e s t S i b e r i a n m e t a l l u r g i c a l w o r k s .

By d e c r e e o f t h e USSR C o u n c i l o f M i n i s t e r s i n 1 9 5 6 , i t was d e c i d e d t o s e t u p a u n i f i e d c o n s t r u c t i o n o r g a n i z a t i o n , B r a t s k - g e s s t r o i , r e s p o n s i b l e f o r t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f a l l i n d u s t r i a l p l a n t s , dams, a n d s e t t l e m e n t s o f t h e BITPC. B r a t s k g e s s t r o i s e t u p a l a r g e c o n s t r u c t i o n i n d u s t r y w i t h l o c a l p r o d u c t i o n o f b u i l d - i n g m a t e r i a l s s u c h a s f e r r o c o n c r e t e , f i t t i n g s , k e r a m z i t s a n d s , a n d c r u s h e d s t o n e [ I ] . B r a t s k g e s s t r o i c u r r e n t l y employs a b o u t 8 0 , 0 0 0 w o r k e r s , a n d i t s a n n u a l p r o g r a m i n 1977 amounted t o 400 m i l l i o n R o u b l e s o f c o n s t r u c t i o n work. The b u i l d i n g m a t e r i a l e n t e r p r i s e s p r o d u c e d 100 m i l l i o n R o u b l e s w o r t h o f p r o d u c t s .

I n t h e e a r l y 1 9 6 0 s , a m e a t p a c k i n g a n d a d a i r y p l a n t w e r e c o n s t r u c t e d . C o n s t r u c t i o n o f t h e B r a t s k a l u m i n i u m p l a n t b e g a n i n 1 9 6 1 , a n d t h e f i r s t u n i t s b e g a n o p e r a t i n g i n 1 9 6 6 . The p l a n t i s o n e o f t h e l a r g e s t i n t h e w o r l d i n t e r m s o f a n n u a l p r o d u c t i o n c a p a c i t y a n d i s s t i l l e x p a n d i n g . I t p r o d u c e s a l u m i n i u m i n g o t s , a l l o y i n g o t s , r o l l e d e l e m e n t s , p i p e s , e t c .

The d e c i s i o n t o b u i l d t h e U s t - I l i m s k c e l l u l o s e p l a n t was a d o p t e d by t h e 2 4 t h C o n g r e s s o f t h e CPSU. C o n s t r u c t i o n b e g a n i n 1974 a n d i s t o b e c o m p l e t e d by 1 9 8 2 . The p r o d u c t i o n p a t t e r n a n d c a p a c i t i e s a r e t o b e s i m i l a r t o t h o s e o f t h e B r a t s k c e l l u l o s e p l a n t .

A l t e r n a t i v e s

The m o s t f u n d a m e n t a l a l t e r n a t i v e s r e g a r d i n g t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e p r o d u c t i o n s e c t o r s i n t h e BITPC a r e t h e t y p e o f p r o d u c t i o n s p e c i a l i z a t i o n a n d t h e c h a r a c t e r o f t h e complex d e v e l o p m e n t ( F i g - u r e 8 ) . One a l t e r n a t i v e f o r t h e B r a t s k i n d u s t r i a l n o d e was t o t r a n s p o r t e n e r g y t o t h e W e s t e r n p a r t o f t h e c o u n t r y , w h e r e i n d u s - t r i a l f a c i l i t i e s e x i s t e d o r c o u l d b e b u i l t u n d e r more f a v o r a b l e c l i m a t i c a n d p o p u l a t i o n c o n d i t i o n s . Between t h i s a l t e r n a t i v e a n d t h e a l t e r n a t i v e t o f u l l y u s e t h e l o c a l e n e r g y r e s o u r c e s f o r

U S T - I L I M S K /

f o r t h e s e t t l e m e n t s . The main a l t e r n a t i v e t o l o c a l p r o d u c t i o n was t o i m p o r t h e a t i n g e l e m e n t s , t e x t i l e s , f o o d s t u f f , e t c .

The d e c i s i o n t o b u i l d up a u n i f i e d c o n s t r u c t i o n i n d u s t r y had s e v e r a l a l t e r n a t i v e s . On o n e hand, t h e q u e s t i o n was w h e t h e r t o l e a v e t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n a c t i v i t i e s a s a s e p a r a t e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y of t h e v a r i o u s M i n i s t r i e s . On t h e o t h e r hand, a l t e r n a t i v e s e x i s t e d a b o u t v a r i o u s schemes f o r d e v e l o p i n g a u n i f i e d c o n s t r u c - t i o n a g e n c y ( l o c a l p r o d u c t i o n of c o n s t r u c t i o n m a t e r i a l s v e r s u s i m p o r t ) . I n t h e e a r l y 1960s, s e v e r a l a l t e r n a t i v e s e x i s t e d f o r t h e f u n c t i o n s of B r a t s k g e s s t r o i ( F i g u r e 8 ) . F o r example, it was c o n c e i v a b l e t h a t B r a t s k g e s s t r o i , a l r e a d y r e s p o n s i b l e f o r v a r i o u s management f u n c t i o n s i n t h e BITPC ( h o u s i n g , s h o p management) would expand o r r e d u c e t h e s e a c t i v i t i e s [131.

On t h e n e x t l e v e l , we c a n c o n s i d e r v a r i o u s a l t e r n a t i v e s f o r t h e development o f t h e main i n d u s t r i a l p l a n t s ( B r a t s k t i m b e r , B r a t s k aluminium, Korshunovo i r o n o r e , U s t - I l i m s k t i m b e r ) . These a l t e r n a t i v e s v a r y m a i n l y f o r p r o d u c t i o n s t r u c t u r e , t e c h n o l o g y , s i t e s , and e n v i r o n m e n t a l p r o t e c t i o n .

With r e g a r d t o p r o d u c t i o n s t r u c t u r e ( c a p a c i t y , t y p e o f p r o d u c t s , d e g r e e of f u r t h e r p r o c e s s i n g ) , some a l t e r n a t i v e s were a l r e a d y c o n s i d e r e d . A s f a r a s t e c h n o l o g i c a l a l t e r n a t i v e s a r e c o n c e r n e d , o u r knowledge i s r a t h e r l i m i t e d . T h e r e a r e s e v e r a l examples of s i t i n g a l t e r n a t i v e s . F o r example, t h e B r a t s k a l u - minium p l a n t o r i g i n a l l y was t o b e l o c a t e d c l o s e r t o t h e s e t t l e - ments ( i n E n e r g e t i k ) . The p r e s e n t s i t e had been r e s e r v e d f o r

f u t u r e p o s s i b l e i n d u s t r i a l p l a n t s , b u t was c h o s e n a s a l o c a t i o n f o r t h e aluminium p l a n t i n 1960 [ 1 3 ] . A l t e r n a t i v e s i n t h e e n v i - r o n m e n t a l p r o t e c t i o n a s p e c t s a r e d i s c u s s e d e l s e w h e r e i n t h i s R e p o r t .

O b i e c t i v e s and C r i t e r i a

N a t i o n a l and r e g i o n a l l e v e l o b j e c t i v e s f o r e v a l u a t i n g a l t e r - n a t i v e s t r a t e g i e s and v a r i a n t s i n t h e p r o d u c t i o n s e c t o r have a l r e a d y been m e n t i o n e d . A t s e v e r a l p l a c e s i n [ I 7 1 a n d i n P a r t y C o n g r e s s m a t e r i a l s , h i g h l e v e l g o a l s s u c h a s r a i s i n g t h e s t a n d a r d of l i v i n g , r a i s i n g t h e e f f i c i e n c y of p r o d u c t i o n , m i n i m i z i n g i n - v e s t m e n t c o s t s a r e l a i d o u t . T h e r e a r e s e v e r a l i n t e r m e d i a t e

l a y e r s of o b j e c t i v e s , some f o r m u l a t e d a s t a s k s f o r t h e BITPC i n t h e B r a t s k - I l i m s k p a p e r s , among them: p r o v i d i n g t h e n a t i o n a l economy w i t h c h e a p e l e c t r i c i t y and e n e r g y - i n t e n s i v e p r o d u c t s , improving t h e r e g i o n a l s t a n d a r d of l i v i n g , and c r e a t i n g f a v o r a b l e c o n d i t i o n s f o r a f u r t h e r e x p a n s i o n of t h e E a s t S i b e r i a n i n d u s t r i a l d e v e l o p m e n t .

I f one l o o k s a t t h e p r a c t i c a l c r i t e r i a a g a i n s t which t h e t y p e s of d e c i s i o n s and a l t e r n a t i v e s i d e n t i f i e d were e v a l u a t e d , we g e t removed from t h e s e g e n e r a l o b j e c t i v e s . The overwhelming c r i t e r i o n , coming up i n many c h o i c e s , i s , of c o u r s e , e f f i c i e n c y

o f p r o d u c t i o n . B u t t h i s o b j e c t i v e i n c l u d e s s e v e r a l f a c t o r s , i f o n e c o n s i d e r s , f o r e x a m p l e , t h e i n c l u s i o n o f i n v e s t m e n t s f o r e n v i r o n m e n t a l p r o t e c t i o n , i n v e s t m e n t s f o r s e t t l e m e n t s a n d i n f r a - s t r u c t u r e , o r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s . W e w e r e t o l d t h a t t h e e n e r g y t r a n s p o r t a l t e r n a t i v e m e n t i o n e d e a r l i e r was a t t h e b o r d e r l i n e o f e f f i c i e n c y . W e w e r e a l s o t o l d t h a t t r a n s p o r t i n g a l u m i n i u m r a w m a t e r i a l s ( m a i n l y b a u x i t e s ) t o t h e e n e r g y s o u r c e i s more e f f i - c i e n t t h a n t r a n s m i t t i n g e l e c t r i c i t y t o removed a l u m i n i u m p l a n t s t h a t had e a s y a c c e s s t o b a u x i t e s .

The i m p o r t a n c e o f s e t t l e m e n t and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s i s d e m o n s t r a t e d by Bandman [ 3 ] who c l a i m s t h a t i f no s u f f i c i e n t r e g i o n a l b a u x i t e d e p o s i t s a r e d i s c o v e r e d , i t may b e i n e f f i c i e n t t o l o c a t e a n o t h e r a l u m i n i u m p l a n t a t t h e Bogouchany dam. I n t h i s case a t r a n s p o r t s t r a t e g y f o r t h e Bogouchany e l e c t r i c i t y may h a v e t o b e c o n s i d e r e d , s i n c e l o c a l e n e r g y c o n s u m p t i o n i s a l r e a d y s u f - f i c i e n t l y s u p p l i e d .

Manpower s h o r t a g e i s a n i m p o r t a n t c r i t e r i o n i n t h e s e l e c t i o n o f t h e d e g r e e o f f u r t h e r p r o c e s s i n g m a t e r i a l s f r o m t h e t i m b e r , i r o n o r e , and a l u m i n i u m p l a n t s . F u r t h e r a l u m i n i u m p r o c e s s i n g , p a p e r p r o d u c t i o n , e t c . , seems i n e f f i c i e n t b e c a u s e o f i t s l a b o r - i n t e n s i v e c h a r a c t e r . The b a l a n c e o f m a l e a n d f e m a l e w o r k e r s i s a n i m p o r t a n t c o n s i d e r a t i o n f o r b u i l d i n g l i g h t i n d u s t r i e s i n t h e BITPC ( t e x t i l e , e t c . ) . One m a j o r r e a s o n f o r d e v e l o p i n g l i g h t i n d u s t r i e s i s t h a t t h e y p r o v i d e employment f o r f e m a l e l a b o r [ l o ]

T h e r o l e o f e n v i r o n m e n t a l c r i t e r i a c a n b e s e e n i n v a r i o u s d e c i s i o n s a s , f o r e x a m p l e , t h e l o c a t i o n o f t h e a l u m i n i u m p l a n t o r t h e i n s t a l l a t i o n o f v a r i o u s p u r i f i c a t i o n d e v i c e s i n t h e B r a t s k t i m b e r a n d a l u m i n i u m p l a n t s . A n o t h e r c r i t e r i o n f o r t h e r e l a t i v e l y h i g h d e g r e e o f p u r i f i c a t i o n o f t h e p r o c e s s e d w a t e r f r o m t h e t i m b e r p l a n t was t o m a i n t a i n h i g h q u a l i t y w a t e r d o w n s t r e a m t h e Angara f o r f u r t h e r u s e b y t h e U s t - I l i m s k t i m b e r p l a n t .

C o n s i d e r a t i o n o f f u t u r e d e v e l o p m e n t s o f E a s t S i b e r i a i s a n - o t h e r i m p o r t a n t a s p e c t o f t e n m e n t i o n e d a s a c r i t e r i o n f o r d e c i s i o n - making. The d e c i s i o n t o b u i l d a u n i f i e d c o n s t r u c t i o n i n d u s t r y a n d o r g a n i z a t i o n was c l e a r l y m o t i v a t e d by s u c h l o n g - t e r m c o n s i d - e r a t i o n s a s f u r t h e r d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e A n g a r a C a s c a d e , f u r t h e r i n d u s t r i a l d e v e l o p m e n t i n t h e w h o l e BITPC a r e a , a n d BAM c o n s t r u c - t i o n .

D e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e BITPC I n f r a s t r u c t u r e

I n t h e p r e v i o u s l y d e s c r i b e d p l a n n i n g and d e c i s i o n m a k i n g l o g i c , t h e BITPC i n f r a s t r u c t u r e d e v e l o p m e n t i s t h e l a s t s t e p f o l l o w i n g power d e v e l o p m e n t a n d d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e p r o d u c t i o n s e c t o r s . The p l a n s a n d d e c i s i o n s f o r i n f r a s t r u c t u r e d e v e l o p m e n t w e r e m a i n l y g e n e r a t e d b y t h e n e e d t o p r o v i d e r o a d s a n d o t h e r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n means f o r t h e a l r e a d y p l a n n e d dams and i n d u s t r i a l p l a n t s , and t o p r o v i d e h o u s i n g a n d o t h e r accommodation f o r w o r k e r s .

B a s i c D e c i s i o n s

Long b e f o r e t h e a c t u a l d e c i s i o n s o n t h e Angara C a s c a d e w e r e made o r i m p l e m e n t e d , t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f a r a i l w a y f r o m T a i s h e t v i a B r a t s k t o Ust-Kut was d e c i d e d ( F i g u r e 9 ) . C o n s t r u c t i o n b e g a n i n 1 9 4 6 , a n d t h e c o n n e c t i o n t o B r a t s k was e s t a b l i s h e d i n 1 9 4 9 . A f t e r t h e 1 9 t h C o n g r e s s o f t h e CPSU had d e c i d e d t o b u i l d t h e

B r a t s k HEPS, o n e o f t h e f i r s t f o l l o w - u p d e c i s i o n s was t h e c o n s t r u c - t i o n o f a r o a d t o t h e B r a t s k dam. T h i s r o a d was b u i l t b e t w e e n 1954 a n d 1 9 5 6 .

E a r l y s e t t l e m e n t s o f c o n s t r u c t i o n w o r k e r s b e g a n i n 1954 i n B r a t s k . C o n s t r u c t i o n o f B r a t s k c i t y p r o p e r b e g a n i n 1 9 5 7 , a n d t h e m a i n p l a n s a r e now r e a l i z e d ( t h e p o p u l a t i o n i n 1 9 7 5 was

2 5 0 , 0 0 0 ) . The town o f S h e l e s n o g o r s k was c o n s t r u c t e d i n a s i m i l a r t i m e p e r i o d ( t h e p o p u l a t i o n i n 1 9 7 5 was a b o u t 3 0 , 0 0 0 ) .

The d e c i s i o n t o b u i l d t h e U s t - I l i m s k HEPS r e q u i r e d t h e c o n - s t r u c t i o n o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s t o t h e dam s i t e . B e g i n - n i n g i n 1 9 6 1 , t h e w a t e r w a y t o U s t - I l i m s k was c l e a r e d , and a r a i l w a y l i n e f r o m K r e v t u b a y a t o U s t - I l i m s k was c o n s t r u c t e d . I n a d d i t i o n , a r o a d f r o m B r a t s k t o U s t - I l i m s k was b u i l t .

E a r l y s e t t l e m e n t s i n U s t - I l i m s k b e g a n i n 1 9 6 2 , b u t a c t u a l c o n s t r u c t i o n o f U s t - I l i m s k p r o p e r d i d n o t b e g i n b e f o r e 1 9 7 0 . Today t h e l e f t b a n k c i t y d e v e l o p m e n t o f U s t - I l i m s k i s i n p r o g r e s s , a n d t h e s i t e f o r t h e l a r g e r r i g h t bank d e v e l o p m e n t h a s b e e n c l e a r e d .

( T h e p o p u l a t i o n i n 1975 was more t h a n 3 0 , 0 0 0 . )

The m o s t r e c e n t i n f r a s t r u c t u r e d e v e l o p m e n t s w e r e t h e b e g i n n i n g o f t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f t h e r o a d t o Bogouchany ( w h i c h b r a n c h e s o f f t h e B r a t s k - U s t - I l i m s k r o a d ) , a n d , o f c o u r s e , t h e c o n t i n u a t i o n o f t h e BAM beyond U s t - K u t , w h i c h b e g a n i n 1974. A l l t h e s e d e v e l o p - m e n t s , i n c l u d i n g t h e m a i n s t r u c t u r e s f o r Bogouchany c i t y , w i l l b e c o m p l e t e d i n t h e e a r l y 1 9 8 0 s (see F i g u r e 9 )

.

A l t e r n a t i v e s

I n f r a s t r u c t u r e d e v e l o p m e n t was c o n s i d e r e d a t t h e same t i m e a s t h e s e r i e s o f d e c i s i o n s o n power a n d i n d u s t r i a l d e v e l o p m e n t , w i t h somewhat more l i m i t e d f r e e d o m o f c h o i c e . F o r e x a m p l e , t h e d e c i s i o n t o b u i l d a dam i n U s t - I l i m s k made t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f t h e r o a d f r o m B r a t s k t o U s t - I l i m s k n e c e s s a r y , and t h e r e w e r e p r o b a b l y o n l y f e w a l t e r n a t i v e s a b o u t , s a y , t h e t r a c e o r t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n t e c h n o l o g y .

I n g e n e r a l , w i t h r e s p e c t t o t r a n s p o r t a t i o n modes, t h e a l t e r - n a t i v e s a r e c l e a r l y w a t e r , r a i l , r o a d a n d a i r . U s u a l l y , a l l f o u r a l t e r n a t i v e s w e r e r e a l i z e d ( B r a t s k , U s t - I l i m s k , Bogouchany, S h e l e s - n o g o r s k ) . T h e r e i s no r a i l w a y y e t t o Bogouchany, b u t it may b e n e c e s s a r y t o b u i l d r a i l t r a n s p o r t i f t h e r e w i l l b e i n d u s t r i a l s e t t l e m e n t s n e a r t h e Bogouchany dam.

BOGOUCHANY SETTLEMENT

A/

AND S I T I N G A L T . \

BAH TRACE A L T .

<

U S T - I L I M S K BANK

S l T l N G A L T .

-

^{LEFT BANK}

U S T - I L I M S K

A / ~ ~ ~ ~

SETTLEMENT A L T . lSETTLE

SHELESNOGORSK

S I T I N G A L T .

/

SHELESNOGORSK

SETTLEMENT A L T ,

A <

^{LE ::::}

BRATSK 3 SETTLEMENTS

S I T I N G A L T , 1 SETTLEMENT

BRATSK MOVE WORKERS

SETTLEMENT A L T -

A-L

^{SETTLE PEOPLE}

Figure 9. Infrastructure development alternative.

W i t h i n e a c h t r a n s p o r t a t i o n mode t h e r e e x i s t s e v e r a l mode s p e c i f i c a l t e r n a t i v e s ( e . g . s i t i n g o f a i r p o r t s , s i z e o f a i r p o r t s , t r a c e o f r o a d s , and c o n s t r u c t i o n t e c h n o l o g y ) . W e know l i t t l e a b o u t s u c h a l t e r n a t i v e s , a n d a s s u m e t h a t t h e i r s e l e c t i o n was m a i n l y d i c t a t e d by n e c e s s i t y .

1980

B I T P C COMPLETION

Time s c h e d u l e s o f i n f r a s t r u c t u r e d e v e l o p m e n t a r e , o f c o u r s e , v e r y c r u c i a l a l t e r n a t i v e s . S e v e r a l d o c u m e n t s r e f e r t o t h e impor- t a n c e o f s e l e c t i n g a n o p t i m a l t i m e s c h e d u l e i n t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f r o a d s a n d s e t t l e m e n t s . Roads m u s t b e r e a d y f o r t i m b e r t r a n s - p o r t , s e t t l e m e n t s m u s t b e r e a d y f o r a r r i v i n g w o r k e r s , e t c .

1960 1970

B l T P C FORMATION

1930

P R E D E C I S I O N P E R I O D

W i t h r e s p e c t t o s e t t l e m e n t a l t e r n a t i v e s , t h e r e was o n e b a s i c d e c i s i o n t o b e made: w h e t h e r t o s e t t l e o r n o t . I t was a con- c e i v a b l e a l t e r n a t i v e t o move c o n s t r u c t i o n w o r k e r s t o t h e b u i l d i n g s i t e s a n d w i t h d r a w them a g a i n a f t e r c o n s t r u c t i o n . ( T h i s s t r a t e g y was f o l l o w e d i n t h e mid-Ob d e v e l o p m e n t . ) Such a n a l t e r n a t i v e s u g g e s t s i t s e l f i n c a s e s o f s p a r s e p o p u l a t i o n a n d s e v e r e c l i m a t i c c o n d i t i o n s a s i n B r a t s k . The d e c i s i o n f o r B r a t s k a n d U s t - I l i m s k was t o s e t t l e w o r k e r s . I n f a c t , o n l y a b o u t 50 p e r c e n t o f t h e c o n - s t r u c t i o n w o r k e r s moved o n t o U s t - I l i m s k , t h e r e m a i n i n g o n e s s t a y e d i n B r a t s k .

1940 1950

WAR AND POST-WAR P E R I O D

The n e x t a l t e r n a t i v e s i n s e t t l e m e n t d e c i s i o n s c o n c e r n s i t i n g . Here we know of more c o n c r e t e a l t e r n a t i v e s . I n B r a t s k , f o r

example, t h e q u e s t i o n was w h e t h e r t o b u i l d o n e u n i f i e d c i t y o r t o b u i l d t h r e e c i t i e s . The t h r e e c i t i e s c o n c e p t t h a t h a s b e e n r e a l i z e d e n a b l e d s h o r t e r commutes t o t h e i n d u s t r i a l p l a n t s , b u t a l s o meant i n c r e a s e s i n c a p i t a l c o s t s , and l e s s u n i t y and c o m f o r t . B r a t s k g e s s t r o i had o r i g i n a l l y a r g u e d f o r a u n i f i e d c i t y n e a r t o d a y ' s E n e r g e t i k . T h i s p l a n was n o t r e a l i z e d b e c a u s e of t r a n s - p o r t a t i o n p r o b l e m s . Today, t h e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n problem c o u l d b e s o l v e d more e f f i c i e n t l y , and o n e would p r e f e r a u n i f i e d c i t y .

S i m i l a r a r g u m e n t s have l e d t o t h e p l a n t o b u i l d a u n i f i e d c i t y o n t h e r i g h t r i v e r bank i n U s t - I l i m s k . However, t h e r e w e r e some c o n s t r a i n t s imposed by t h e l e f t bank s e t t l e m e n t s o f e a r l y c o n s t r u c t i o n w o r k e r s . The c u r r e n t p l a n i s t o b u i l d a l a r g e c i t y on t h e r i g h t s i d e of t h e Angara, b u t t h e l e f t s i d e d e v e l o p m e n t i s a l s o growing.

F i n a l a l t e r n a t i v e s , a f t e r t h e s i t i n g d e c i s i o n s h a v e b e e n made, c o n c e r n t h e s i z e , d e s i g n , and c o n s t r u c t i o n t e c h n o l o g y . We know l i t t l e a b o u t s u c h a l t e r n a t i v e s , b u t t h e r e w e r e some c o n s i d - e r a t i o n s a b o u t t h e q u a l i t y o f b u i l d i n g m a t e r i a l s , r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s , e t c .

O b j e c t i v e s and C r i t e r i a

Much of what h a s b e e n s a i d b e f o r e a b o u t t h e o b j e c t i v e s and c r i t e r i a i n t h e e v a l u a t i o n o f power and i n d u s t r i a l d e v e l o p m e n t a l t e r n a t i v e s a l s o h o l d s f o r t h e e v a l u a t i o n o f i n f r a s t r u c t u r e a l t e r n a t i v e s . O v e r - r i d i n g c o n s i d e r a t i o n i s g i v e n t o e f f i c i e n c y c r i t e r i a . But a s some of t h e s e t t l e m e n t d e c i s i o n s show, t h e s e e f f i c i e n c y c o n s i d e r a t i o n s i n c l u d e s e v e r a l o f t e n c o n f l i c t i n g c r i t e r i a . Most o f t h e s e c r i t e r i a were d i s c u s s e d i n t h e p r e v i o u s s e c t i o n a n d w i l l n o t b e r e p e a t e d h e r e . I n more g e n e r a l t e r m s , o b j e c t i v e s and e f f i c i e n c y c r i t e r i a w i l l a l s o b e d i s c u s s e d l a t e r i n t h i s p a p e r .

A s s i t i n g d e c i s i o n s show. t h e r e a r e some c o n f l i c t i n g o b j e c - t i v e s between e n v i r o n m e n t a l g o a l s ( e . g . c l e a n a i r i n s e t t l e m e n t s ) , d e s i g n g o a l s ( e . g . p r o x i m i t y t o w a t e r r e s o u r c e s ) , and c o s t con- s i d e r a t i o n s . Housing c o n s t r u c t i o n c o s t s a l s o had t o b e c a r e f u l l y weighed a g a i n s t q u a l i t y c o n s i d e r a t i o n s , a q u e s t i o n t h a t i s p a r t i c - u l a r l y i m p o r t a n t i f o n e c o n s i d e r s t h e need f o r a t t r a c t i n g w o r k e r s t h r o u g h q u a l i t y h o u s i n g .

I n r o a d and o t h e r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o n s t r u c t i o n , t h e main c r i t e r i a w e r e t o meet t h e e x i s t i n g c o n s t r a i n t s o f f u t u r e s i t e s f o r dams and i n d u s t r i a l d e v e l o p m e n t s .

The F u t u r e Development o f BITPC

The e v o l u t i o n o f B r a t s k - I l i m s k h a s b e e n a n d w i l l c o n t i n u e t o b e i n f l u e n c e d by t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f E a s t S i b e r i a . At t h e end o f t h e S e c o n d World War, a s n o t e d e a r l i e r , p r i o r i t y was g i v e n t o c o n s t r u c t i n g t h e l i n k i n t h e BAM t h a t c o n n e c t e d B r a t s k w i t h T a i s h e t and t h e W e s t . Now t h a t work o n BAM i s p r o g r e s s i n g e a s t - w a r d , l o c a l p l a n n i n g b o d i e s c o n t i n u e t o s t u d y i n t e n s i v e l y t h e o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r B r a t s k t o become a n i n d u s t r i a l s u p p o r t c e n t e r . One a p p r o a c h h a s b e e n t o t r y t o d e m o n s t r a t e t h a t a d d i t i o n a l i n - v e s t m e n t s i n o n e i n d u s t r i a l complex o r n o d e , s u c h a s B r a t s k , h e l p t o r e d u c e c o s t s f o r d e v e l o p i n g o t h e r s t o b e l o c a t e d i n a d j o i n i n g t e r r i t o r i e s , a s f o r e x a m p l e t h e U s t - I l i m s k complex 2 5 0 km t o t h e n o r t h , o r Bogouchany t o t h e n o r t h w e s t , o r Z e l e s n o g o r s k t o t h e e a s t . To t h e e x t e n t t h a t B r a t s k may s e r v e , a t l e a s t i n i t i a l l y , a s a b a s e f o r c o n s t r u c t i o n o p e r a t i o n s o r a s a t r a n s p o r t a t i o n h u b f o r t h e s e new i m p l e m e n t a t i o n s , some e c o n o m i e s c a n b e d e m o n s t r a t e d .

P a r a l l e l i n g t h i s c o n c e p t o f u s i n g B r a t s k - I l i m s k a s a s u p p o r t c e n t e r i s t h e c o n c e p t t h a t t h e l o n g - t e r m v i a b i l i t y o f S i b e r i a n d e v e l o p m e n t r e q u i r e s a b a l a n c e o f g r o w t h . Development o f t h e e n e r g y a n d r a w m a t e r i a l s e c t o r s a l o n e c a n n o t c r e a t e t h e k i n d s o f s e l f - c o n t a i n e d c o m m u n i t i e s i n w h i c h women a s w e l l a s men, o l d p e o p l e a s w e l l a s young, c a n a c h i e v e a h i g h l e v e l o f s o c i a l and economic s a t i s f a c t i o n . S e c o n d a r y m a n u f a c t u r i n g and s e r v i c e o p e r a - t i o n s m u s t b e a d d e d t o p r o v i d e a b a l a n c e d i n d u s t r i a l a n d s o c i a l e n v i r o n m e n t .

T h i s c o n c e p t o f b a l a n c e d g r o w t h i s a t v a r i a n c e w i t h t h e t r a - d i t i o n a l a p p r o a c h i n w h i c h i n v e s t m e n t d e c i s i o n s a r e b a s e d o n m i n i - m i z a t i o n of d i r e c t c o s t s a n d o f l a b o r u t i l i z a t i o n , b a s e d i n t u r n o n t h e p r i n c i p l e o f s p e c i a l i z a t i o n o f l a b o r . On t h e o t h e r h a n d , more b a l a n c e d S i b e r i a n d e v e l o p m e n t i s h e l d t o b e c o n s i s t e n t w i t h

t h e b r o a d e r - - a l t h o u g h o p e r a t i o n a l l y more d i f f i c u l t - - c o n c e p t of p r o m o t i o n o f t h e common g o o d . The a r g u m e n t h e r e i s t h a t t h e w e l f a r e o f t h e p e o p l e o f S i b e r i a i s a n e c e s s a r y e l e m e n t o v e r t h e l o n g r u n t o t h e w e l f a r e o f t h e p e o p l e o f t h e USSR a s a w h o l e . The q u e s t i o n o f how t h e s e c o n c e p t s a r e t o b e r e c o n c i l e d i s h i g h l y complex a n d o c c u p i e s a t t h e moment a n i m p o r t a n t p l a c e i n t h e p o l i c y e v a l u a t i o n p r o g r a m s o f a v a r i e t y o f p l a n n i n g a n d r e s e a r c h o r g a n i z a t i o n s .

The f u t u r e d e v e l o p m e n t o f B r a t s k - I l i m s k h a s t o b e s c h e d u l e d i n t h r e e d i r e c t i o n s . The f i r s t i s t o f i l l i n t h e s t r u c t u r e w i t h e l e m e n t s c o m p l e m e n t a r y t o t h e p r e s e n t o n e s w i t h a v i e w t o e n s u r i n g t r u l y complex d e v e l o p m e n t . T h i s may i n c l u d e c o m p l e m e n t i n g t h e e x i s t i n g r a w m a t e r i a l p r o d u c t i o n b y more a d v a n c e d m a n u f a c t u r i n g t e c h n o l o g i e s .

The s e c o n d i s t h e c r e a t i o n a n d f u r t h e r d e v e l o p m e n t o f s u c h b r a n c h e s o f i n d u s t r y t h a t c a n be u s e d f o r c r e a t i n g o t h e r c e n t e r s o f i n d u s t r i a l a c t i v i t y i n E a s t S i b e r i a , i n p a r t i c u l a r a l o n g t h e BAM o r i n t h e Upper Lena. T h i s i n v o l v e s t h e d e v e l o p m e n t of

b r a n c h e s f o r c o n s t r u c t i o n m a t e r i a l s , f o o d s t u f f s , m a n u f a c t u r i n g of s p e c i a l e q u i p m e n t , e t c

.

The t h i r d r e l a t e s t o t h e e x p a n s i o n o f Bratsk-IZirnsk i n c o n - n e c t i o n w i t h t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n of t h e B o g o u c h a n y HEPS. The r e - s o u r c e s f o r t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n of t h i s s t a t i o n a r e t r a n s p o r t e d on a l a r g e s c a l e from t h e BITPC u n d e r t h e p l a n n i n g and management of B r a t s k g e s s t r o i . The power l i n e and r o a d w i l l b e b u i l t from B r a t s k . T h e r e f o r e , i t i s p o s s i b l e t h a t t h e BITPC w i l l expand more w i d e l y t h a n was p l a n n e d a t t h e b e g i n n i n g of i t s d e v e l o p m e n t . The f u t u r e of t h e BITPC a s a TPC d e p e n d s f i r s t of a l l on t h e a n s w e r s t o t h e s e q u e s t i o n s .

PROBLEMS AND METHODS OF SELECTING EFFICIENT ALTERNATIVES

M e t h o d o l o g i c a l Problems

The d e c i s i o n s t a k e n d u r i n g t h e p r o c e s s of p r e p a r i n g and form- i n g t h e BITPC d e v e l o p m e n t , which were a n a l y z e d a b o v e , i n c l u d e s e v e r a l s t e p s of s e l e c t i o n o f e f f i c i e n t v a r i a n t s and s t r a t e g i e s . T h e s e i n c l u d e s t r a t e g i e s o f t h e E a s t S i b e r i a n d e v e l o p m e n t , v a r i - a n t s of t h e BITPC f o r m a t i o n a s a w h o l e , and d e s i g n , c o n s t r u c t i o n , and s e t t l e m e n t v a r i a n t s .

The c h o i c e o p p o r t u n i t y and t h e need t o s e l e c t v a r i a n t s and s t r a t e g i e s f o r s o c i o e c o n o m i c s y s t e m s s u c h a s t h e BITPC i s g e n e r a l l y c a u s e d by t h e f o l l o w i n g f a c t o r s :

-

D i f f e r e n t s e t s of g o a l s and s o c i a l n e e d s which r e f l e c t d i f f e r e n t p r i o r i t i e s a n d p r e f e r e n c e s ;

-

D i f f e r e n t p a t h s f o r g e n e r a l economic g r o w t h , d i f f e r i n g i n s p e e d , s t r u c t u r e and d i r e c t i o n o f g r o w t h ;

-

D i f f e r e n t ways of u t i l i z i n g n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s and t h e n a t u r a l e n v i r o n m e n t :

-

D i f f e r e n t ways of r e a c t i n g t o c h a n g i n g e x t e r n a l economic c o n d i t i o n s , a s d i f f e r e n t v a r i a n t s of s p e c i a l i z a t i o n s and d i f f e r e n t r e g i o n a l i n p u t and o u t p u t v a r i a n t s ;

-

D i f f e r e n t t e c h n o l o g i c a l s o l u t i o n s o r t e c h n o l o g i c a l o p t i o n s , r e f l e c t i o n s o f n a t i o n a l and r e g i o n a l t e c h n o l o g i c a l p o l i c i e s ;

-

D i f f e r e n t p o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r t h e s i t i n g of f a c i l i t i e s and o f s e t t l e m e n t s ;

-

D i f f e r e n t s e q u e n c e and d u r a t i o n of a c t i v i t i e s , f o r example, a s a r e s u l t of d i f f e r e n t i n v e s t m e n t p o l i c i e s ;

-

D i f f e r e n t ways t o m e e t manpower n e e d s ;

-

D i f f e r e n t modes t o a d a p t s k i l l s , b r a n c h s t r u c t u r e , a n d manpower s t r u c t u r e t o a c h a n g i n g e c o n o m i c a n d t e c h n o l o g i c a l s t r u c t u r e .

O u r a n a l y s i s o f t h e m u l t i s t a g e , m u l t i l e v e l s e l e c t i o n p r o c e s s of e f f i c i e n t v a r i a n t s a n d s t r a t e g i e s f o r t h e BITPC f o r m a t i o n showed many m e t h o d o l o g i c a l p r o b l e m s , some o f w h i c h h a v e b e e n s o i v e d . T h e s e p r o b l e m s , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t h e d e c i s i o n p r e p a r a t i o n , a r e summarized b e l o w .

A t t h e same t i m e more t h a n o n e d e c i s i o n c r i t e r i o n e x i s t s . The c r i t e r i a r e f l e c t m u l t i p l e o b j e c t i v e s w h i c h a r e n e i t h e r com- p l e t e l y g i v e n a t t h e t i m e t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s s t a r t s , n o r a r e t h e y f i x e d o v e r t i m e . The d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f o b j e c t i v e s a n d t h e i r r e l a t i v e p r i o r i t i e s i s u s u a l l y a r e s u l t o f t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s r a t h e r t h a n i t s s t a r t i n g p o i n t . I t i s o n l y p o s s i b l e t o d e t e r m i n e o b j e c t i v e s when t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s a n d c o n s e q u e n c e s o f e a c h v a r i a n t a n d s t r a t e g y a r e known. T h i s means t h a t t h e g o a l s e t t i n g a n d s e l e c t i o n p r o c e s s i s a n i t e r a t i v e p r o c e s s w i t h a m u l t i p l i c i t y o f c h a n g i n g p a r a m e t e r s .

Not a l l c r i t e r i a a p p e a r i n a q u a n t i f i e d o r q u a n t i f i a b l e f o r m .

D i f f e r e n t d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s a n d d e c i s i o n m a k i n g b o d i e s a t

d i f f e r e n t o r g a n i z a t i o n a l l e v e l s t a k e p a r t i n t h e d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s . They r e p r e s e n t p a r t i a l l y d i f f e r e n t i n t e r e s t s a n d r e s p e c t i v e s e t s o f g o a l s .

Not a l l d e c i s i o n s c a n b e t a k e n s i m u l t a n e o u s l y . The d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s t h r o u g h a l l p a r t i c i p a t i n g l e v e l s i s s e q u e n t i a l o v e r a c e r t a i n t i m e s p a n . New a s p e c t s h a v e t o b e t a k e n i n t o c o n s i d e r a - t i o n a s t i m e p a s s e s , making t h e d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s a l e a r n i n g p r o - cess.

D e c i s i o n s h a v e t o b e made i n t h e l i g h t o f u n c e r t a i n t y a b o u t f u t u r e r e s o u r c e s , f u t u r e n e e d s , a n d f u t u r e d e v e l o p m e n t s o f t h e n a t i o n a l a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l m a r k e t .

Complex s o c i o e c o n o m i c s y s t e m s s u c h a s t h e BITPC d o n o t p o s s e s s o n l y o n e c l e a r l y d e f i n e d optimum. They p e r m a n e n t l y c h a n g e them- s e l v e s a n d t h e i r e n v i r o n m e n t i n r e a c t i o n t o c h a n g i n g i n t e r n a l a n d e x t e r n a l c o n d i t i o n s a n d i n f u l f i l l m e n t o f a s e t o f h i e r a r c h i c a l l y s t r u c t u r e d g o a l s a n d o b j e c t i v e s , w h i c h i n t u r n a l s o c h a n g e o v e r t i m e . S o c i o e c o n o m i c s y s t e m s h a v e t o b e u n d e r s t o o d a n d managed a s s y s t e m s i n t h e s t a t e o f d y n a m i c a d a p t a b i l i t y , a s l e a r n i n g s y s t e m s . They a r e composed o f s e l f - a d a p t i n g a n d l e a r n i n g s u b - s y s t e m s c o n n e c t e d t o e a c h o t h e r by c o o r d i n a t i o n r e l a t i o n s a n d t o s y s t e m s o f a h i g h e r o r l o w e r l e v e l by r e l a t i o n s o f s u b o r d i n a - t i o n .

The m u l t i s t a g e , m u l t i l e v e l s e l e c t i o n p r o c e s s o f e f f i c i e n t v a r i a n t s and s t r a t e g i e s o f t h e BITPC f o r m a t i o n and development d o e s n o t y e t f o l l o w c o m p l e t e l y f o r m a l i z e d r u l e s . The p r e d e c i s i o n p h a s e c a n m e r e l y b e d e s c r i b e d a s a n i n t e r a c t i o n o f f o r m a l i z e d c a l c u l a t i o n s o f e f f i c i e n c y and s u b j e c t i v e e v a l u a t i o n o f e f f e c t s .

C o n s i d e r i n g t h e c o m p l e x i t y o f t h e p r o b l e m o f s e l e c t i n g e f f i - c i e n t v a r i a n t s , and c o n s i d e r i n g t h e l a c k o f f u l l y f o r m a l i z e d p r o c e d u r e s t o d e a l w i t h t h i s c o m p l e x i t y , i t i s n o t s u r p r i s i n g t h a t a r e t r o s p e c t i v e a n a l y s i s of t h e s e l e c t i o n p r o c e s s i s exceed- i n g l y d i f f i c u l t .

The f i r s t p r o b l e m s a r i s e i n t h e s t a g e s of d e c i s i o n m a k i n g t h a t p r e c e d e t h e a c t u a l e v a l u a t i o n and s e l e c t i o n , namely t h e s t a g e s o f f o r m u l a t i n g a l t e r n a t i v e s a n d o b j e c t i v e s . I d e a l l y , o n e would l i k e t o d e s c r i b e a l t e r n a t i v e s i n t e r m s of d e c i s i o n t r e e s t h a t show t h e i n i t i a l p o s s i b l e a c t i o n s , f o l l o w - u p a c t i o n s , f u t u r e c o n c e i v a b l e e v e n t s , and f i n a l c o n s e q u e n c e s . S i m i l a r l y , o n e would l i k e t o d e s c r i b e g o a l s and o b j e c t i v e s i n a l o g i c a l g o a l t r e e w i t h g e n e r a l s u p e r g o a l s o n t o p , mediurn-level o b j e c t i v e s i n t h e m i d d l e , and o p e r a t i o n a l a t t r i b u t e s o r e v a l u a t i o n c r i t e r i a a t t h e b o t t o m . We had p r e v i o u s l y made a n a t t e m p t t o r e t r o s p e c t i v e l y s t u d y t h e BITPC s t r a t e g i c d e c i s i o n r n a k i n g i n s u c h a manner [ 1 7 ] , b u t i t p r o v e d u n s a t i s f a c t o r y , b e c a u s e o f a l a c k of i n f o r m a t i o n and b i a s e s

i n r e t r o s p e c t i v e a s s e s s m e n t o f a l t e r n a t i v e s and g o a l s .

When it comes t o t h e s e l e c t i o n p r o c e s s , t h e r e t r o s p e c t i v e a n a l y s i s i s l i m i t e d m a i n l y by t h e e l e m e n t s o f s u b j e c t i v e e v a l u a - t i o n t h a t i s p a r t o f t h e p r o c e s s . T h e r e i s a b s o l u t e l y no hope t o r e c o v e r r e t r o s p e c t i v e l y t h e t r a d e - o f f s , t i m e p r e f e r e n c e s , e t c . , t h a t a r e i m p l i c i t i n t h e s e s u b j e c t i v e e v a l u a t i o n s .

The r e t r o s p e c t i v e a n a l y s i s o f t h e s e l e c t i o n p r o c e s s i s on f i r m e s t g r o u n d where f o r m a l t e c h n i q u e s a n d models h a v e b e e n a p p l i e d f o r e v a l u a t i o n and s e l e c t i o n . I t i s t h e r e f o r e q u i t e n a t u r a l t h a t we c o n c e n t r a t e i n t h e f o l l o w i n g on t h e s e f o r m a l a s p e c t s o f t h e

s e l e c t i o n p r o c e s s . N a t u r a l l y t h e more w e g o i n t o t h e p a s t , i n t h e BITPC d e v e l o p m e n t , t h e f e w e r f o r m a l models, methods, and a l g o r i t h m s f o r e v a l u a t i o n w e f o u n d . Our a n a l y s i s w i l l t h e r e f o r e c o n c e n t r a t e on t h e more r e c e n t d e v e l o p m e n t s o f f o r m a l s e l e c t i o n o f v a r i a n t s f o r t h e BITPC d e v e l o p m e n t , and it w i l l d i s c u s s some new models and t e c h n i q u e s f o r e v a l u a t i o n and s e l e c t i o n .

The L o g i c o f t h e S e l e c t i o n P r o c e s s

The s e l e c t i o n of e f f i c i e n t v a r i a n t s a n d s t r a t e g i e s f o r a l l s t a g e s o f t h e BITPC f o r m a t i o n a n d c o n s t r u c t i o n i s a p a r t o f a d e c i s i o n m a k i n g p r o c e s s , which h a s s e v e r a l d i m e n s i o n s . T h e s e a r e a s f o l l o w s :

-

The l o g i c a l i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e o f d e c i s i o n s on d i f f e r e n t l e v e l s and w i t h d i f f e r e n t s y s t e m s a s p e c t s ;

-

The t i m e h o r i z o n a n d s e q u e n c e o f d e c i s i o n s ;

-

The i n t e r a c t i o n o f d e c i s i o n m a k i n g o r g a n i z a t i o n a l u n i t s o n d i f f e r e n t l e v e l s o f t h e h i e r a r c h y a n d w i t h d i f f e r e n t s p e c i a l i z a t i o n s .

L o g i c a l I n t e r d e p e n d e n c e

The l o g i c a l i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e c o m p r i s e s d e c i s i o n s o n s e c t o r i a l a n d t e r r i t o r i a l i n p u t - o u t p u t r e l a t i o n s , s i t i n g a n d l a n d u s e , t r a n s p o r t a t i o n r e l a t i o n s , p r o p o r t i o n s b e t w e e n p r o d u c t i o n s e c t o r s a n d s e r v i c e s , p o p u l a t i o n a n d manpower s t r u c t u r e , f i n a n c i a l r e l a - t i o n s , a n d o t h e r s . T h e s e a r e shown i n F i g u r e 1 0 . The p r o c e d u r e s a n d i n s t r u m e n t s f o r h a n d l i n g t h e s e i n t e r d e p e n d e n c i e s d u r i n g t h e p l a n n i n g a n d d e c i s i o n m a k i n g p r o c e s s o f t h e U S S R a r e d e s c r i b e d i n t h e m e t h o d o l o g i c a l i n s t r u c t i o n f o r p l a n n i n g o f t h e n a t i o n a l economy [ 9 1

.

resource assessment

choice of technology

zation

TPC inputs

.

rnanpower/population

and o u t p u t s

I I-L::x::...I

settlements and services

Figure 10. Logical interdeprnd(:ncirs of &:cisions on BITPC formation.

T h e s e i n s t r u c t i o n s a r e s u b d i v i d e d i n t o t h e f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n s :

-

P l a n n i n g o f d e v e l o p m e n t o f s c i e n c e a n d t e c h n o l o g y ;

-

P l a n n i n g o f i n c r e a s e o f economic e f f i c i e n c y o f s o c i a l p r o d u c t i o n ;

-

P l a n n i n g o f i n d u s t r i a l p r o d u c t i o n ;

-

P l a n n i n g of a g r i c u l t u r e and f o r e s t r y ;

-

P l a n n i n g o f t r a n s p o r t a n d t e l e c o m m u n i c a t i o n s ;

-

P l a n n i n g o f c a p i t a l i n v e s t m e n t s , d e s i g n , a n d c o n s t r u c - t i o n :

-

P l a n n i n g of g e o l o g i c a l p r o s p e c t i n g ;

-

P l a n n i n g of manpower;

-

P l a n n i n g of c o s t s , s u r p l u s , and r e n t a b i l i t y ;

-

P l a n n i n g t o r a i s e t h e s t a n d a r d o f l i v i n g o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n ;

-

P l a n n i n g of d o m e s t i c t r a d e ;

-

P l a n n i n g o f p u b l i c u t i l i t i e s a n d s o c i a l s e r v i c e s ;

-

P l a n n i n g of n a t i o n a l e d u c a t i o n , c u l t u r a l a c t i v i t i e s a n d p u b l i c h e a l t h s e r v i c e s ;

-

P l a n n i n g o f t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e economy o f t h e u n i o n R e p u b l i c s ;

-

P l a n n i n g o f e n v i r o n m e n t a l p r o t e c t i o n a n d t h e e f f i c i e n t u t i l i z a t i o n o f n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s ;

-

P l a n n i n g of i n t e r n a t i o n a l economic r e l a t i o n s ;

-

P l a n n i n g t h e b a l a n c e o f t h e n a t i o n a l economy o f t h e USSR a n d o f t h e u n i o n R e p u b l i c s ;

-

I n p u t - o u t p u t t a b l e a n d d i s t r i b u t i o n o f p r o d u c t s i n t h e n a t i o n a l economy;

-

M a t e r i a l b a l a n c e s a n d p l a n s o f d i s t r i b u t i o n ;

-

E l a b o r a t i o n a n d a p p l i c a t i o n o f n o r m a t i v e s o f e x p e n d i - t u r e a n d o f p r o d u c t i o n s t o c k s o f m a t e r i a l r e s o u r c e s i n i n d u s t r y a n d c o n s t r u c t i o n ;

-

P l a n n i n g of improvement of management of t h e n a t i o n a l economy;

-

C l a s s i f i c a t i o n of s e c t o r s of t h e n a t i o n a l economy.

These i n s t r u c t i o n s d e s c r i b e t h e key i n d i c a t o r s , a l g o r i t h m s and models u s e d f o r p l a n p r e p a r a t i o n i n e a c h s e c t o r and r e g i o n , and i n c l u d e t h e t o o l s f o r r e g i o n a l and TPC p l a n n i n g . ( A d e t a i l e d a n a l y s i s of t h e model s y s t e m f o r r e g i o n a l and TPC development p l a n n i n g i s g i v e n e l s e w h e r e i n t h i s R e p o r t . ) They a r e t h e frame- work f o r p r e p l a n n i n g r e s e a r c h and modeling f o r n a t i o n a l embedding and f o r m a t i o n of a TPC. Bandman [ 4 ] h a s d e s c r i b e d t h e l o g i c a l s t e p s of s c i e n t i f i c p r e p a r a t i o n of a new TPC. F i g u r e 1 1 shows t h e p r i n c i p l e s t r u c t u r e of a model s y s t e m f o r o p t i m i z i n g produc- t i o n and s p a t i a l s t r u c t u r e of a r e g i o n and i t s TPCs [ 4 ] .

Figurt: 1 1 . Modt:l systen~ for optimization o r production and spatial structure

Time I n t e r d e p e n d e n c e

The t i m e h o r i z o n and s e q u e n c e of d e c i s i o n s i s a n o t h e r a s p e c t of t h e s e l e c t i o n p r o c e s s of e f f i c i e n t v a r i a n t s and s t r a t e g i e s o f TPC f o r m a t i o n and c o n s t r u c t i o n .

A l l p r e v i o u s d e c i s i o n s of t h e BITPC h a v e been t a k e n d u r i n g t h e l a s t 3 0 y e a r s . O b v i o u s l y , t h e s e l e c t i o n of v a r i a n t s o f t e c h - n o l o g i c a l d e s i g n d e t a i l s f o r new p l a n t s c a n b e t a k e n o n l y i f t h e s p e c i a l i z a t i o n o f t h e r e s p e c t i v e r e g i o n o r TPC i s d e c i d e d upon, i . e . e a c h d i s c u s s i o n d e a l i n g w i t h t h e s e l e c t i o n o f e f f i c i e n t v a r i a n t s and s t r a t e g i e s h a s t o be p u t i n t o a s e q u e n c e o f d e c i s i o n s w i t h d i f f e r e n t t i m e h o r i z o n s ( s e e F i g u r e 1 2 ) . During t h e long- r a n g e c o n s t r u c t i o n p r o c e s s of a TPC, new i n t e r n a t i o n a l , n a t i o n a l , and r e g i o n a l economic, p o l i t i c a l , and t e c h n o l o g i c a l c o n d i t i o n s a r i s e which l e a d t o c h a n g e s , a d j u s t m e n t s , and c o r r e c t i o n s o f v a r i a n t s and s t r a t e g i e s of development.

The f i r s t a s p e c t o f t h e t i m e h o r i z o n and sequence of d e c i s i o n s i s t a k e n c a r e o f by o r g a n i z a t i o n s o f t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s and t h e i n t e r a c t i o n between long-, medium- and s h o r t - r a n g e p l a n n i n g ; t h i s s u b j e c t i s t r e a t e d i n d e t a i l e l s e w h e r e i n t h i s R e p o r t . The second a s p e c t i s r e f l e c t e d i n t h e a c t u a l c o n f l i c t s and sequence o f d e c i - s i o n s on t h e BITPC f o r m a t i o n and c o n s t r u c t i o n o v e r t h e p a s t 3 0 y e a r s

.

Years

-

REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT ( 1 5. . . . . .25 years! LONG-RANGE REGIONAL RESOURCE EXPLOITATION AND SPECIALIZA- TION CONCEPTS

' t

INVESTMENT/CONSTRUCTION ( 3 ... 5 years) FIVE-YEAR PLANS/

PROGRAHS

OPERATIOtIAL HANAGEHPNT ( 1 week.. .l year! ANNUAL PLRNS (PRODUCTION.

SUPPLY, BUDGET!

Figure 12. Time horizons of decisions on TPC formation.

I n t e r d e p e n d e n c i e s o f D e c i s i o n m a k i n g U n i t s

The c o n s t r u c t i o n o f t h i s e n t e r p r i s e i s t h e j o i n t a c t i v i t y o f s e v e r a l s o c i a l i s t c o u n t r i e s , and was i n i t i a t e d a n d o r g a n i z e d by t h e CMEA a n d i t s Commission f o r t h e C h e m i c a l I n d u s t r y .

Methods o f S e l e c t i o n

T h i s s e c t i o n d e a l s w i t h some f o r m a l a s p e c t s o f t h e s e l e c t i o n o f e f f i c i e n t v a r i a n t s and s t r a t e g i e s f o r t h e BITPC f o r m a t i o n , w h i c h h a v e b e e n a n a l y z e d a b o v e [7]. A l t h o u g h w e o f t e n r e f e r t o s e l e c t i o n p r o c e s s e s i n t h e BITPC, t h e m a i n s t r e s s i s o n g e n e r a l m e t h o d s f o r s e l e c t i n g good e f f i c i e n t v a r i a n t s i n d e v e l o p m e n t a s a p p l i e d i n t h e USSR, many o f w h i c h a l s o f o u n d a p p l i c a t i o n i n t h e d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s e s f o r t h e BITPC.

W e w i l l f i r s t a d d r e s s t h e p e r s i s t e n t p r o b l e m i n s e l e c t i o n , namely t h a t o f f o r m u l a t i n g a n d o p e r a t i o n a l i z i n g g o a l s . Then we w i l l d i s c u s s m e t h o d s o f e f f i c i e n c y c a l c u l a t i o n s f o r p r o g r a m e v a l u a t i o n , a n d we w i l l o u t l i n e t h e i d e a s o f s e v e r a l S o v i e t m o d e l s t o d e a l w i t h t h e m a i n i n t e r d e p e n d e n c i e s i n e v a l u a t i o n : p h y s i c a l , s p a t i a l , and t i m e d e p e n d e n c i e s . F i n a l l y , we w i l l d i s - c u s s some a s p e c t s o f u n c e r t a i n t y h a n d l i n g i n t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s .

G o a l I d e n t i f i c a t i o n

Complex d e v e l o p m e n t p r o g r a m s h a v e u s u a l l y m u l t i p l e and c o n - f l i c t i n g g o a l s . U n i d i m e n s i o n a l c r i t e r i a , s u c h a s m i n i m i z a t i o n o f e x p e n d i t u r e s , a r e u s e d s o m e t i m e s a s t h e m a i n c r i t e r i o n f o r e v a l u a t i o n , b u t t h e y o n l y h i d e i n t h e i r i m p l i c i t i n c l u s i o n o f s e v e r a l c o s t c o m p o n e n t s ( c o s t s f o r e n v i r o n m e n t a l p r o t e c t i o n , c o s t s f o r i n f r a s t r u c t u r e d e v e l o p m e n t ) t h e m u l t i d i m e n s i o n a l n a t u r e o f t h e p r o b l e m and t h e r e a l t r a d e - o f f s t h a t h a v e t o b e made.

F o r a n e f f i c i e n c y e v a l u a t i o n ( b e i t i n t e r m s o f a g g r e g a t i n g s e v e r a l c r i t e r i a i n t o o n e t h r o u g h c o s t o r o t h e r ) , i t i s i m p o r t a n t t o s p e l l o u t t h e m a i n g o a l s and o b j e c t i v e s t h a t a r e t o b e a c h i e v e d . One method t o i d e n t i f y s u c h g o a l s a n d o b j e c t i v e s i s t h e g o a l t r e e a p p r o a c h . C u r r e n t l y , two p r i n c i p a l ways o f g o a l t r e e c o n s t r u c t i o n a r e known: c o n s t r u c t i o n b y l o g i c a l e x p l i c a t i o n o f s u p e r g o a l s , a n d c o n s t r u c t i o n b y t a s k w i s e s p e c i f i c a t i o n of s u p e r g o a l s .

I n l o g i c a l e x p l i c a t i o n s o f s u p e r g o a l s o n e s p e c i f i e s a t i n - c r e a s i n g l e v e l s o f d e t a i l w h a t i s m e a n t b y t h e g e n e r a l s u p e r g o a l , i t s v a r i o u s s u b g o a l s , e t c . F o r e x a m p l e , t h e g e n e r a l g o a l t o i m p r o v e t h e w e l l - b e i n g of t h e p e o p l e o f a r e g i o n c o u l d b e e x p l i - c a t e d a s i m p r o v i n g t h e m a t e r i a l a n d t h e c u l t u r a l w e l l - b e i n g . F u r t h e r d i s a g g r e g a t i o n c o u l d d e f i n e m a t e r i a l w e l l - b e i n g , f o r e x a m p l e , b y q u a l i t y o f h o u s i n g , l e v e l o f i n c o m e , a n d number o f d o c t o r s p e r c a p i t a . The l o w e s t l e v e l o f s u c h e x p l i c a t i o n s h o u l d b e o p e r a t i o n a l ( m e a s u r a b l e ) i n d i c a t o r s s u c h a s s q u a r e f e e t o f h o u s i n g a r e a p e r c a p i t a , w h i c h c a n b e t r a n s f e r r e d i n t o q u a n t i f i e d p l a n - t a s k s .

S p e c i f y i n g g o a l s by t a s k w i s e d i s a g g r e g a t i o n d e f i n e s a t i n c r e a s i n g l e v e l s of d e t a i l t h o s e t a s k s t h a t must be f u l f i l l e d i n o r d e r t o a c h i e v e i n t e r m e d i a t e o b j e c t i v e s and s u p e r g o a l s . For example, i f t h e s u p e r g o a l i s t o improve t h e m a t e r i a l and c u l t u r a l well-being of t h e p e o p l e i n a r e g i o n , one may c o n s i d e r t h e t a s k s of b u i l d i n g new a p a r t m e n t s , improving i n f r a s t r u c t u r e , e t c . Such d i s a g g r e g a t i o n ends u p - - i n s t e a d of i n d i c a t o r s - - w i t h v e r y s p e c i f i c s u b t a s k s such a s b u i l d i n g a r o a d .

S e v e r a l r e s e a r c h i n s t i t u t e s i n t h e USSR a r e working on t h e problem of g o a l t r e e c o n s t r u c t i o n a s p a r t of t h e development o f t h e method of " g o a l o r i e n t e d program p l a n n i n g " .

During o u r v i s i t , we found t h r e e i n s t i t u t e s t h a t were p a r t i c - u l a r l y concerned w i t h g o a l d e f i n i t i o n problems:

-

C e n t r a l Economic Mathematical I n s t i t u t e of t h e USSR Academy of S c i e n c e s ( C E M I ) ;

-

C e n t r a l Economic Research I n s t i t u t e of GOSPLAN RSFSR P l a n n i n g Commission ( C E R I ) ;

-

I n s t i t u t e of Economics and I n d u s t r i a l E n g i n e e r i n g ,

S i b e r i a n Branch of t h e USSR Academy of S c i e n c e s (IEOIP).

The CEMI approach a t t e m p t s t o r e a l i z e g o a l t r e e c o n s t r u c t i o n a l o n g t h e l i n e s of a l o g i c a l s p e c i f i c a t i o n o u t l i n e d b e f o r e 17,251.

I n t h e f i r s t s t e p , such a g o a l t r e e i s c o n s t r u c t e d w i t h o p e r a t i o n a l i n d i c a t o r s a t t h e bottom. These i n d i c a t o r s a r e t h e n t r a n s l a t e d i n t o " t e c h n i c a l n o r m a t i v e s " t h a t d e f i n e t h e f i n a l demand o v e r t i m e . Usual b a l a n c e methods can t h e n be used t o e v a l u a t e t h e f e a s i b i l i t y of v a r i a n t s , o r t o r e v i s e t h e n o r m a t i v e s , i f a l l v a r i a n t s a r e f e a s i b l e . Also, a weighing f u n c t i o n c a n be d e f i n e d t o f u r t h e r e v a l u a t e f e a s i b l e v a r i a n t s . Here we w i l l o n l y d e s c r i b e t h e a c t u a l g o a l t r e e c o n s t r u c t i o n approach. The f u r t h e r e v a l u a t i o n s t e p s e n v i s a g e d by CEMI w i l l be d i s c u s s e d l a t e r , when we t a l k a b o u t t h e h a n d l i n g of p h y s i c a l i n t e r d e p e n d e n c i e s i n e v a l u a t i o n and s e l e c t i o n .

S t a r t i n g w i t h t h e r e j e c t i o n o f t h e i d e a t h a t " v i a b i l i t y " o r

" s u r v i v a l " s h o u l d be t h e u l t i m a t e g o a l of a socioeconomic system, f o u r main s u p e r g o a l s a r e d e f i n e d i n t h e CEMI approach ( s e e F i g u r e 1 4 ) :

1 . R a i s e t h e w e l f a r e of t h e members of t h e s o c i a l i s t s o c i e t y ;

2 . S t r e n g t h e n and d e v e l o p t h e system of s o c i a l r e l a t i o n s ;

3 . G u a r a n t e e a s a f e development;

4 . Develop t h e p o t e n t i a l f o r t h e f u t u r e .

Examples f o r s p e c i f i c a t i o n s of t y p e 1 o b j e c t i v e s a r e s a t i s - f a c t i o n of m a t e r i a l n e e d s , s a t i s f a c t i o n of s o c i a l n e e d s , and

L O G I C A L E X P L I C A T I O N O F SUPERGOALS

I W H A T IS M E A N T 7

I

GROWTH O F SOCIALIST SOCIETY

1

W E L F A R E O F SOCIAL

1

I N D I V I D U A L S

1 1

R E L A T I O N S

1 1

^GOALS

GOODS L. M A N A G E - INAT.L ^{SECURITY INFORMA-}

SUPPLY M E N T

I I

^I

C_ H E A L T H I I \LABOR I

4 C C C

N O R M A T I V E S

M E A T I C A P . I

I N D I C A T O R S

I

---4 k----J

I

Figure 14.

I I

g u a r a n t e e o f a c c e s s t o m a t e r i a l a n d s o c i a l w e l f a r e a n d s e r v i c e s . T h e s e o b j e c t i v e s a r e s p e c i f i e d down t o a l e v e l o f , f o r e x a m p l e , s a t i s f a c t i o n o f n e e d s f o r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n a n d movement, a n d f i n a l l y a t t r i b u t e s s u c h a s q u a l i t y o f c i t y t r a n s p o r t a t i o n .

M I N . PROTEINICAP. 1 I I ^I I

Examples o f o b j e c t i v e s f a l l i n g i n t o t y p e 2 a r e improvement of t h e c o u n t r y ' s management s y s t e m , d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e p e r s o n a l i t y o f t h e members o f s o c i e t y , a n d i m p r o v e m e n t o f s o c i a l s t r u c t u r e o f s o c i e t y .

Examples f o r t y p e 3 o b j e c t i v e s a r e n a t i o n a l s e c u r i t y g o a l s , f o r e i g n a i d , e t c . ( a l s o e n v i r o n m e n t a l o b j e c t i v e s a s f a r a s t h e y a r e e x t e r n a l t o t h e a c t u a l s y s t e m ) . Examples o f t h e l a s t g o a l c a t e g o r y a r e t h e d e v e l o p m e n t of t h e s c i e n t i f i c a n d t e c h n o l o g i c a l p o t e n t i a l , d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e r e s o u r c e s o f p r o d u c t i o n means,

d e v e l o p m e n t o f p e o p l e a s members o f s o c i e t y and a s l a b o r r e s o u r c e s , d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e s t a t e o f t h e n a t u r a l e c o l o g i c a l e n v i r o n m e n t a n d o f n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s , a n d d e v e l o p m e n t o f r e s o u r c e s o f n o n p r o d u c t i o n n a t u r e .

On t h e l o w e s t l e v e l o f t h i s g o a l t r e e a r e o p e r a t i o n a l i n d i c a - t o r s s u c h a s t h e amount o f s p e n d a b l e income a n d s i z e o f d w e l l i n g s . T h e s e i n d i c a t o r s a r e o n c e more t r a n s l a t e d i n t o p r o d u c t i o n r e l a t e d t e c h n i c a l n o r m a t i v e s t h a t d e f i n e f i n a l demand, s u c h a s amount o f

m e a t p e r c a p i t a p e r week, a n d number o f t e a c h e r s p e r s c h o o l - c h i l d r e n . Program v a r i a n t s a r e t h e n e v a l u a t e d a g a i n s t t h e d e g r e e t o w h i c h t h e y a c h i e v e t h e s e n o r m a t i v e s . The a c t u a l p r o c e d u r e CEMI s u g g e s t s f o r t h i s e v a l u a t i o n w i l l b e d i s c u s s e d i n t h e n e x t s e c t i o n .

T h i s a p p r o a c h by CEMI i s s t i l l a t a r e s e a r c h s t a g e . The g o a l t r e e s a r e n o t f u l l y c o n s t r u c t e d , b u t t h e r e a r e s e v e r a l a t t e m p t s t o l o g i c a l l y s t r u c t u r e t h e t r e e s f r o m t h e t o p , and t o a c c u m u l a t e s t a t i s t i c s , i n d i c a t o r s , and m e a s u r e s t h a t c o u l d b e u s e d t o f i l l i n t h e t r e e f r o m t h e b o t t o m . C r i t i q u e s o f t h e a p p r o a c h c l a i m t h a t i t i s u n r e a l i s t i c , b e c a u s e m o s t g o a l s c a n n o t b e o p e r a t i o n a l i z e d . They p r e f e r a t a s k w i s e s p e c i f i c a t i o n o f o b j e c t i v e s a s a more p r a c t i c a l a l t e r n a t i v e .

T a s k w i s e d i s a g g r e g a t i o n o f g o a l s i s r e p r e s e n t e d i n t h e work b y O r l o v ( I E O I P ) and i n t h e work by Moshin/Kozlov (CERI)

.

^An

e x a m p l e o f O r l o v ' s a p p r o a c h i s documented i n Dubnov a n d O r l o v [6]. T h e i r p r o b l e m was t o s p e c i f y r e s e a r c h t a s k s f o r t h e d e v e l - opment o f t h e Mid-Ob i n d u s t r i a l complex f r o m t h e g o a l s f o r t h e c o m p l e x d e v e l o p m e n t . The l e v e l s o f t h e i r t a s k - s p e c i f i c g o a l t r e e a r e a s f o l l o w s :

-

N a t i o n a l e c o n o m i c t a s k s ;

-

R e g i o n a l g o a l s ;

-

G e n e r a l c o n t o u r s o f t h e d i r e c t i o n s o f a c t i v i t i e s ;

-

T y p e s o f a c t i v i t i e s ;

-

Methods f o r r e a l i z i n g t h e s e a c t i v i t i e s ;

-

S y s t e m demands a n d means f o r r e a l i z a t i o n ;

-

A l t e r n a t i v e ways o f c r e a t i n g s y s t e m s and m e a n s ;

-

D i r e c t i o n s o f r e s e a r c h ( a l t e r n a t i v e s ) .

Thus n a t i o n a l e c o n o m i c o b j e c t i v e s p r o v i d e t h e f r a m e w o r k a n d c o n s t r a i n t s f r o m w h i c h r e g i o n a l d e v e l o p m e n t g o a l s a r e d e r i v e d . T h e s e a r e i n t u r n t r a n s l a t e d t h r o u g h s e v e r a l l a y e r s o f t a s k s a n d t a s k e l e m e n t s t h a t a r e n e e d e d t o a c h i e v e them. F i n a l l y , t h e a c t u a l ( r e s e a r c h ) a l t e r n a t i v e s a r e d e r i v e d f r o m t h e p o s s i b i l i t i e s t o r e a l i z e t h e a c t i v i t i e s o n t h e l o w e s t l e v e l .

C E R I ' s a p p r o a c h t o t a s k s p e c i f i c a t i o n o f g o a l s i s s l i g h t l y d i f f e r e n t . Here a l t e r n a t i v e s t h a t a r e t o b e e v a l u a t e d a r e t i m e c o n s e q u e n c e s o f a c t i v i t i e s i n t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f a r e g i o n o r TPC.

T h i s a p p r o a c h s t a r t s w i t h s u p e r g o a l s , w h i c h a r e r e a l l y t a s k s (see F i g u r e 1 5 ) : o p t i m a l f o r m a t i o n o f t h e complex o f m a t e r i a l p r o d u c t i o n , a n d o p t i m a l f o r m a t i o n o f t h e m a t e r i a l a n d t e c h n i c a l p r e r e q u i s i t e s f o r l i v i n g c o n d i t i o n s . T h e s e g e n e r a l t a s k s a r e t h e n d i s a g g r e g a t e d i n t o b r a n c h s u b t a s k s down t o t h e e n t e r p r i s e l e v e l o r t h e l e v e l o f s p e c i f i c r e s e a r c h o r c o n s t r u c t i o n a c t i v i t i e s .

TASKWISE S P E C I F I C A T I O N O F SUPERGOALS

W H A T N E E D S TO BE D O N E 7

G R O W T H O F SOCIALIST S O C I E T Y

Y

O P T I M A L F O R M A T I O N O F M A T E R I A L P R O D U C T I O N

O P T I M A L F O R M A T I O N O F M A T . PRE-

R E Q U I S I T E S F O R L I V I N G C O N D I T I O N S

BRANCHISECTOR SUBTASKS ENTERPRISE SUBTASKS

+

C O N S T R U C T I O N A C T I V I T I E S

+

RESEARCH A C T I V I T I E S ( P L A N TASKS)

Figure 15.

C r i t i q u e s of t h e t a s k w i s e s p e c i f i c a t i o n a r g u e t h a t i t i m p l i e s a r e s t r i c t i o n o f p o s s i b l e a l t e r n a t i v e s . What i s l e f t a f t e r a t a s k - w i s e s p e c i f i c a t i o n of g e n e r a l o b j e c t i v e s i s a s e l e c t i o n o f o p t i m a l t i m i n g of t h e d e r i v e d a c t i v i t i e s w i t h c r i t e r i a t h a t a r e e x t e r n a l t o t h e t a s k w i s e g o a l s y s t e m ( e - g . minimum e x p e n d i t u r e )

.

The v a r i o u s a t t e m p t s t h a t a r e p r e s e n t l y made i n t h e U S S R t o c o n s t r u c t g o a l t r e e s r e f l e c t t h e need t o s u b s t a n t i a t e t h e p r i n c i p l e of g o a l o r i e n t e d p l a n n i n g . D i f f i c u l t i e s i n g o a l i d e n t i f i c a t i o n t h r o u g h g o a l t r e e s a r e w i d e l y r e c o g n i z e d . Among them a r e t h e f o l l o w i n g :

-

D i f f e r e n t p r i n c i p l e s o f g o a l t r e e c o n s t r u c t i o n (which s u p e r g o a l s t o s t a r t w i t h , which t y p e o f d i s a g g r e g a t i o n t o u s e , which l o g i c of s p e c i f i c a t i o n t o f o l l o w ) ;

-

D i f f i c u l t i e s i n o p e r a t i o n a l i z i n g g o a l s ;

-

D i f f i c u l t i e s i n t r a n s l a t i n g i n d i c a t o r o r i e n t e d g o a l t r e e s a t t h e l o w e s t l e v e l i n t o p r o d u c t i o n r e l e v a n t n o r m a t i v e s ;

-

D i f f i c u l t i e s i n a v o i d i n g r e s t r i c t i o n s o f a l t e r n a t i v e s i n t a s k w i s e s p e c i f i c a t i o n o f g o a l s .

E f f i c i e n c y E v a l u a t i o n

The p l a n n i n g a n d e v a l u a t i o n p r o g r a m a n d p l a n e f f i c i e n c y i s a n i n t e g r a l p a r t o f t h e USSR p l a n n i n g s y s t e m . I t i s d o n e by u s i n g s p e c i f i c i n d i c a t o r s o n e a c h e c h e l o n o f d e c i s i o n m a k i n g , r e l a t e d t o t h e n a t i o n a l economy a s a w h o l e , t h e S o v i e t R e p u b l i c s , t h e s e c t o r s of s e c t o r i a l p r o d u c t i o n , a n d t h e e n t e r p r i s e s . T h e s e i n d i c a t o r s a r e f i x e d i n t h e m e t h o d o l o g i c a l r e g u l a t i o n s f o r n a t i o n a l economic p l a n n i n g [9]. The p r i n c i p l e s t r u c t u r e o f t h i s i n d i c a t o r s y s t e m f o r p l a n n i n g e f f i c i e n c y i s a s f o l l o w s :

-

Growth r a t e s o f n a t i o n a l income a n d p r o d u c t i o n ;

-

O u t p u t p e r o n e u n i t o f f i x e d a s s e t s , c i r c u l a t i n g f u n d s , c o s t s of m a t e r i a l , a n d w a g e s ;

-

R e n t a b i l i t y [ r e v e n u e p e r u n i t o f c a p i t a l a n d c u r r e n t c o s t s ) ;

-

c o s t s p e r u n i t o f p r o d u c t i o n ;

-

Growth r a t e s o f l a b o r p r o d u c t i v i t y ;

-

Growth c a u s e d by i n c r e a s e o f l a b o r p r o d u c t i v i t y ;

-

S a v i n g s o f l a b o r compared w i t h t h e p r e v i o u s y e a r ;

-

C a p i t a l r e n t a b i l i t y .

T h e s e i n d i c a t o r s a r e a l s o t h e main t o o l s o f p r o g r a m e v a l u a t i o n t h r o u g h a c c o u n t i n g o f e x p e n d i t u r e s a n d b e n e f i t s a n d c o m p a r i n g v a r i a n t s o n t h i s b a s i s .

I n d e p e n d e n t s u b g o a l s s u c h a s e n v i r o n m e n t a l p r o t e c t i o n a r e t a k e n i n t o a c c o u n t by a n e v a l u a t i o n o f a d d i t i o n a l e x p e n d i t u r e n e c e s s a r y f o r t h e i r a c h i e v e m e n t . F o r e x a m p l e , c o s t s f o r r e f o r e s - t a t i o n o r l a n d r e c l a m a t i o n a r e i n c l u d e d i n t h e c a l c u l a t i o n o f t o t a l e x p e n d i t u r e s .

C o s t s f o r s e t t l e m e n t s i n v i r g i n t e r r i t o r y a n d r e g i o n s w i t h s e v e r e c o n d i t i o n s a r e t a k e n i n t o a c c o u n t a s w e l l a s p o s s i b l e i n c r e a s e d c o s t s o f c o n s t r u c t i o n a n d o p e r a t i o n o f f a c i l i t i e s a c c o r d i n g t o c o e f f i c i e n t s s e t by t h e USSR C o u n c i l o f M i n i s t e r s . T h e s e c o e f f i c i e n t s a r e d i f f e r e n t i n t h e v a r i o u s e c o n o m i c z o n e s o f t h e USSR. (Economic z o n e s a r e , f o r e x a m p l e , t h e z o n e o f t h e T r a n s - S i b e r i a n r a i l w a y , t h e zone o f t h e n o r t h a n d t h e BAM, a n d t h e z o n e o f t h e f a r n o r t h a n d t h e m o u n t a i n s o f S a y a n . ) I n S i b e r i a , t h e s e c o e f f i c i e n t s a r e a b o u t 2 0 p e r c e n t h i g h e r t h a n i n t h e w e s t e r n p a r t o f t h e c o u n t r y .

C o m p a r i s o n o f v a r i a n t s i s d o n e o n t h e b a s i s o f t h e c a l c u l a t e d f l o w s o f e x p e n d i t u r e s . V a r i o u s c r i t e r i a a r e p o s s i b l e , s u c h a s p a y b a c k p e r i o d , i n t e r n a l r a t e o f r e t u r n , o r n e t p r e s e n t v a l u e . N e t p r e s e n t v a l u e c a l c u l a t i o n s a r e b a s e d i n t h e USSR o n a d i s c o u n t r a t e o f 1 2 p e r c e n t , w h i c h r e f l e c t s t h e e f f i c i e n c y o f i n v e s t m e n t .

Handling I n t e r d e p e n d e n c i e s

I n t h e e v a l u a t i o n of a l t e r n a t i v e s , v a r i a n t s , and s t r a t e g i e s f o r TPCs, s e v e r a l i m p o r t a n t i n t e r d e p e n d e n c i e s between a c t i v i t i e s have t o b e t a k e n i n t o a c c o u n t : p h y s i c a l , s p a t i a l , and t i m e i n t e r d e p e n d e n c i e s .

P h y s i c a l i n t e r d e p e n d e n c i e s r e s u l t from i n t e r a c t i o n s between p r o d u c t i o n a c t i v i t i e s , and a r e u s u a l l y r e p r e s e n t e d by p h y s i c a l f l o w s of p r o d u c t s . I n modeling and e v a l u a t i o n , t h e y a r e u s u a l l y h a n d l e d by b a l a n c e m o d e l s , l i n e a r programming m o d e l s , o r dynamic programming models ( F i g u r e 1 6 )

.

S p a t i a l i n t e r d e p e n d e n c i e s s t e m from t h e p a t t e r n of l o c a t i o n o f i n d u s t r i a l p l a n t s and s e t t l e m e n t s and t h e i r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n l i n k s . They a r e h a n d l e d i n models f o r o p t i m a l s p a t i a l a l l o c a t i o n and models f o r s i t e e v a l u a t i o n . Time d e p e n d e n c i e s a r e a r e s u l t of t h e i n t e r a c t i o n s between t h e v a r i o u s a c t i v i t i e s i n c o n s t r u c t i o n and p r o d u c t i o n o v e r t i m e . I n modeling and e v a l u a t i o n , t h e y a r e h a n d l e d u s u a l l y by network models s u c h a s c r i t i c a l p a t h a n a l y s i s . The model s y s t e m of t h e IEOIP [ 2 ] f o r TPC p l a n n i n g i s a r i g o r o u s a p p r o a c h t o c o p i n g w i t h s u c h i n t e r - d e p e n d e n c i e s i n t h e e v a l u a t i o n of v a r i a n t s . T h i s model s y s t e m f o r s p a t i a l and p h y s i c a l i n t e r d e p e n d e n c y h a n d l i n g i s u s e d i n t h e p r e p l a n n i n g s t a g e f o r TPCs t o e l a b o r a t e and e v a l u a t e v a r i a n t s of t h e TPC development. (The s y s t e m i s d i s c u s s e d e l s e w h e r e i n t h i s R e p o r t , and i s d e s c r i b e d i n d e t a i l i n [ I 1 , p . 2771 and IEOIP p a p e r s . )

An i n t e r e s t i n g i d e a t o h a n d l e p h y s i c a l i n t e r d e p e n d e n c i e s i n c o n n e c t i o n w i t h t h e g o a l t r e e a p p r o a c h h a s been p r e s e n t e d by CEMI

( s e e F i g u r e 1 7 ) . Once t h e g o a l t r e e i n d i c a t o r s a r e t r a n s l a t e d i n t o t e c h n i c a l n o r m a t i v e s t h a t d e f i n e f i n a l demand o v e r t i m e , p r o d u c t i o n v a r i a n t s c a n b e a n a l y z e d by u s u a l i n p u t - o u t p u t methods t o a s s e s s t h e f e a s i b i l i t y of t h e v a r i a n t s w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e s e n o r m a t i v e s , o r t o r e - a s s e s s t h e n o r m a t i v e s t h e m s e l v e s ( i f no v a r i a n t p r o v e s f e a s i b l e ) . F o r f u r t h e r e v a l u a t i o n o f f e a s i b l e v a r i a n t s CEMI s u g g e s t s a w e i g h t i n g a p p r o a c h t h a t c o n s t r u c t s a n e v a l u a t i o n f u n c t i o n f o r v a r i a n t s on t h e b a s i s of w e i g h t e d norma- t i v e ~ .

T i m e i n t e r d e p e n d e n c i e s a r e t y p i c a l l y a n a l y z e d w i t h network o r c r i t i c a l p a t h models. I n CERI and t h e I r k u t s k b r a n c h of t h e IEOIP, w e have been p r e s e n t e d w i t h v a r i o u s models of t h i s t y p e f o r t i m i n g a c t i v i t i e s i n TPC development.

I n IEOIP, we w e r e p r e s e n t e d w i t h a network model combined w i t h a r e g i o n a l o p t i m i z a t i o n model t o o p t i m i z e c o n s t r u c t i o n a c t i v -

i t i e s i n t h e TPC development. T h i s combined model h a s a s i t s main d e c i s i o n p a r a m e t e r s time, amount o f s u p p l y , and volume of h o u s i n g . The model h a s b e e n a p p l i e d i n s e v e r a l e x p e r i m e n t a l c a s e s , and i t s r e t r o s p e c t i v e a p p l i c a t i o n t o c o n s t r u c t i o n a c t i v i t i e s i n t h e B r a t s k TPC showed t h a t it c o u l d have a c h i e v e d a 20 p e r c e n t r e d u c t i o n of e x p e n d i t u r e s .

REGIONAL N O R M A T I V E S BALANCES &

MODELS

N A T . RES. L A N D BALANCES

A

Figure 16.

t

/

\

1

4

NETWORKS

?-

1-0 MODELS

. .

^STATIC D Y N A M I C

STATIC L.O.

MODELS

N A T I O N A L ECONOMIC M O D E L

1 I I I

I

I I I I I I I I I -1

M A T E R I A L RESOURCES

I

-

I I

SCHEME O F P L A N N I N G O F F I N A L PRODUCT O F SECTORS O F N A T I O N A L ECONOMY

D Y N A M I C OPT MODELS

F i g ~ r e 17. Connrrtion of goal trrc: approach with input-output rnod(,ls (CEMl).

T h e s e n e t w o r k m o d e l s a s w e l l a s t h e p r e v i o u s l y m e n t i o n e d m o d e l s f o r o p t i m i z i n g s p a t i a l and p r o d u c t i o n p a t t e r n s a r e c o n -

s i d e r e d p r e p l a n n i n g t o o l s .

Summary o f F i n d i n g s and C o n c l u s i o n s

Our s t u d y o f t h e BITPC d e c i s i o n m a k i n g and s e l e c t i o n o f e f f i c i e n t v a r i a n t s a n d s t r a t e g i e s c o u l d e x t r a c t s e v e r a l f a c t s , p r o b l e m s , a n d m e t h o d o l o g i e s w h i c h m i g h t b e o f i n t e r e s t when h a n d l i n g c o m p a r a b l e l a r g e - s c a l e d e v e l o p m e n t p r o g r a m s . T h e s e i n c l u d e :

-

F i n d i n g s a b o u t t h e s p e c i a l p h y s i c a l , e c o n o m i c , a n d s o c i a l f e a t u r e s o f t h e BITPC;

-

F i n d i n g s a b o u t t y p i c a l o r s p e c i f i c p r o b l e m s t h a t w e r e e n c o u n t e r e d ;

-

F i n d i n g s a b o u t s o l u t i o n a p p r o a c h e s a n d m e t h o d o l o g i e s t h a t d e a l t w i t h t h e s e p r o b l e m s .

T h e s e f i n d i n g s a r e summarized b e l o w . S p e c i a l F e a t u r e s

The d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e BITPC was b a s e d o n a c e n t r a l d e c i s i o n and w i l l b e d e p e n d e n t o n c e n t r a l d e c i s i o n s i n t h e f u t u r e . N a t i o n a l n e e d s a n d t h e embedding i n t h e n a t i o n a l economy w e r e p r e d o m i n a n t f a c t o r s i n t h e i n i t i a l s t a g e o f e l a b o r a t i n g t h e BITPC c o n c e p t . S p e c i a l i z a t i o n o f h y d r o e l e c t r i c power, t i m b e r , c e l l u l o s e , a n d a l u m i n i u m p r o d u c t i o n was d e r i v e d f r o m n a t i o n a l g o a l s a n d was b a s e d o n a c o n c e n t r a t i o n of n a t i o n a l means and e f f o r t s . From t h i s p o i n t o f v i e w , t h e BITPC was n e v e r r e g a r d e d a s " s e l f - s u f f i c i e n t " .

The d e v e l o p m e n t of v i r g i n t e r r i t o r i e s was s t a r t e d f r o m a d j a - c e n t b u t d e v e l o p e d r e g i o n s . I n t h e s e r e g i o n s , " p i o n e e r " i n d u s - t r i e s w e r e e s p e c i a l l y d e v e l o p e d t o p r o v i d e a c o n s t r u c t i o n and manpower b a s e .

S e v e r e c l i m a t i c c o n d i t i o n s a n d s p a r s e p o p u l a t i o n was a l i m i t - i n g f a c t o r o n t h e b a s i c s t r a t e g y t o d e v e l o p i n d u s t r i e s i n t h e BITPC. The r u l e seems t o b e n o t t o e n g a g e i n f u r t h e r p r o c e s s i n g o r m a n u f a c t u r i n g b e c a u s e o f t h e i r l a b o r i n t e n s i v e c h a r a c t e r .

S t r a t e g i e s f o r t h e BITPC t h a t w e r e a d o p t e d i n t h e e a r l y 1 9 5 0 s p r o v e d t o b e v e r y s t a b l e . A d a p t a t i o n s t o new r e q u i r e m e n t s o f t h e n a t i o n a l economic d e v e l o p m e n t ( e . g . new e n e r g y s t r a t e g i e s ) a n d of e x t e r n a l m a r k e t (CMEA, U s t - I l i m s k t i m b e r c o m p l e x ) c o u l d b e managed w i t h i n t h e framework o f t h e l o n g - r a n g e s t r a t e g y w i t h s u f f i c i e n t f l e x i b i l i t y .

I n t e r v i e w i n g s c i e n t i s t s , l o c a l a n d c e n t r a l g o v e r n m e n t o f f i - c i a l s , a n d m a n a g e r s of v a r i o u s e n t e r p r i s e s , we f o u n d a b r o a d v a r i e t y o f o p t i o n s a b o u t t h e f u t u r e o f t h e BITPC w i t h r e s p e c t t o i t s f u t u r e s i z e , d e g r e e o f c o m p l e t i o n o f p r o d u c t i o n s t r u c t u r e , a n d management. T h i s r e f l e c t s a l s o t h e f a c t t h a t c u r r e n t l y s e v e r a l v a r i a n t s e x i s t w i t h i n t h e g e n e r a l s t r a t e g y o f e x p l o i t i n g E a s t S i b e r i a n r e s o u r c e s .

The human f a c t o r h a s p l a y e d a n d c o n t i n u e s t o p l a y a n i m p o r - t a n t r o l e i n t h e BITPC s t r a t e g y a n d v a r i a n t e l a b o r a t i o n a n d s e l e c - t i o n . I t i n f l u e n c e s t h e s e t t l e m e n t p o l i c y , t h e s t r a t e g i e s a n d v a r i a n t s o f s p e c i a l i z a t i o n a n d f u t u r e c o m p l e t i o n o f t h e BITPC.

I t a l s o i n f l u e n c e s t h e c r e a t i o n o f f a v o r a b l e l i v i n g c o n d i t i o n s u n d e r t h e s e v e r e c l i m a t i c c o n d i t i o n s i n E a s t S i b e r i a . P a r t i c u - l a r l y young w o r k e r s a r e a t t r a c t e d t o v i r g i n t e r r i t o r i e s , p a r t l y f o r e d u c a t i o n a l p u r p o s e s , p a r t l y b e c a u s e of t h e i r s u p e r i o r e n d u r - a n c e .

I n t h e p r e s e n t s t a g e o f t h e BITPC d e v e l o p m e n t , t h e c r e a t i o n of new f a c i l i t i e s f o r f e m a l e employment became a n i m p o r t a n t t a s k . The s o l u t i o n o f t h i s t a s k i s n o t o n l y h a n d l e d f r o m a n e c o n o m i c p o i n t o f v i e w , b u t a l s o f r o m t h e p o i n t o f v i e w o f f a v o r a b l e l i v i n g c o n d i t i o n s f o r t h e p o p u l a t i o n .

P r o b l e m s E n c o u n t e r e d

One s e t o f p r o b l e m s i s c o n n e c t e d w i t h t h e s p e c i f i c n a t u r e o f t h e B r a t s k - I l i m s k R e g i o n : s e v e r e c l i m a t e , s p a r s e p o p u l a t i o n , a n d i n a c c e s s i b i l i t y o f r e s o u r c e s . T h e s e p r o b l e m s h a v e b e e n known b e f o r e t h e F i e l d S t u d y b e g a n , b u t t h e y t u r n e d o u t t o b e more s i g n i f i c a n t f o r t h e s e l e c t i o n o f v a r i a n t s a n d s t r a t e g i e s t h a n e x p e c t e d . A f t e r t h e i n i t i a l s t a g e s o f c o p i n g w i t h t h e s e p r o b l e m s , t h e main p r o b l e m s now s e e m t o b e o u t - m i g r a t i o n , a n d s e x i m b a l a n c e o f t h e l a b o r f o r c e .

A n o t h e r s e t o f p r o b l e m s i s c o n n e c t e d w i t h t h e d i f f i c u l t i e s t o c o o r d i n a t e t h e numerous p l a n n i n g and d e c i s i o n m a k i n g o r g a n s i n v o l v e d i n t h e BITPC d e v e l o p m e n t . The m a i n d i f f i c u l t y seems t o l i e i n t h e c o o r d i n a t i o n b e t w e e n s e c t o r i a l a n d t e r r i t o r i a l i n t e r - e s t s i n p l a n n i n g .

T i m i n g o f a c t i v i t i e s p r o v e d t o b e a s u b s t a n t i a l p r o b l e m . S e v e r a l a u t h o r s a n d i n t e r v i e w e e s m e n t i o n e d t h a t t h e r e s o m e t i m e s w e r e t i m e l a g s i n t h e d e v e l o p m e n t t h a t may h a v e l e d t o e c o n o m i c l o s s e s .

M e t h o d o l o g i c a l p r o b l e m s r e l a t e t o t h e d i f f i c u l t i e s i n a s s e s s - i n g t h e e f f i c i e n c y o f v a r i a n t s a n d s t r a t e g i e s ( e - g . s e t t l e m e n t s t r a t e g y v e r s u s e x p o r t o f e n e r g y ) . T h e s e p r o b l e m s w e r e p a r t l y d u e t o t h e m u l t i s t a g e , m u l t i l e v e l n a t u r e o f t h e d e c i s i o n m a k i n g p r o c e s s , p a r t l y t o t h e d i f f i c u l t i e s i n a s s e s s i n g s e c o n d a r y o r t e r t i a r y c o s t s o f s a y s e t t l e m e n t s t r a t e g i e s , a n d p a r t l y t o t h e u n c e r t a i n t y f a c t o r i n t h e d e v e l o p m e n t .

S o v i e t p l a n n e r s and d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s r e a l i z e d t h e new c h a l - l e n g e s posed by e n v i r o n m e n t a l p r o b l e m s . The i m p o r t a n c e o f main- t a i n i n g good e n v i r o n m e n t a l c o n d i t i o n s had i n c r e a s e d i n r e c e n t y e a r s and new a p p r o a c h e s and methods were i n t r o d u c e d i n t h e BITPC p l a n n i n g and d e c i s i o n m a k i n g .

S e v e r a l problems r e l a t e t o t h e management of t h e whole TPC.

I t was d i s c u s s e d s e v e r a l t i m e s w h e t h e r a new management body may have t o b e f o u n d t o s o l v e t h e management p r o b l e m s more e f f i c i e n t l y .

S o l u t i o n Approaches and M e t h o d o l o g i e s

P r e p l a n n i n g p l a y s a n i m p o r t a n t r o l e i n t h e s o l u t i o n o f some o f t h e s e p r o b l e m s . I n t h e BITPC, t h e p r e p l a n n i n g p h a s e was v e r y l o n g and i n t e n s i v e . D e c i s i o n s w e r e made i n a s t e p w i s e p r o c e s s t o m a i n t a i n f l e x i b i l i t y t o a d a p t t o new c i r c u m s t a n c e s s u c h a s s e t t l e m e n t p r o b l e m s o r d i s c o v e r y o f new r e s o u r c e s .

A l r e a d y i n t h e e a r l y s t a g e s o f p r e p a r a t i o n o f t h e BITPC con- c e p t , a l l s o c i o e c o n o m i c s y s t e m e l e m e n t s o f t h i s complex ( r e s o u r c e s , e n e r g y I p r o d u c t i o n , t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , c o n s t r u c t i o n , h o u s i n g , s e r v i c e s , employment, i n c e n t i v e s ) h a v e b e e n t a k e n i n t o a c c o u n t and became t h e s u b j e c t of c o m p r e h e n s i v e p l a n n i n g .

The e l a b o r a t i o n and e v a l u a t i o n of t h e BITPC c o n c e p t and p o s s i b l e v a r i a n t s and s t r a t e g i e s i s d o n e u n d e r p a r t i c i p a t i o n o f many s c i e n t i f i c i n s t i t u t e s and c o u n c i l s i n Moscow, Akademgordock, I r k u t s k , and o t h e r p l a c e s . The p r o c e s s t r i e s t o m a i n t a i n a n open v i e w on d i f f e r e n t v a r i a n t s t o p r o v i d e p l a n n e r s and d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s w i t h i n d e p e n d e n t and s c i e n t i f i c a l l y b a s e d v a r i a n t s of d e v e l o p m e n t . One of t h e main i n n o v a t i o n s f o r s o l v i n g p r o b l e m s i n t h e con- s t r u c t i o n o f t h e BITPC was t h e f o r m a t i o n o f a u n i f i e d c o n s t r u c t i o n a g e n c y , t h e B r a t s k g e s s t r o i , t h a t c a n b e u s e d f o r a l l c o n s t r u c t i o n t a s k s i n t h e Region. Thus f u r t h e r development o f t h e BITPC c a n b e a c h i e v e d w i t h o u t c r e a t i n g new c o n s t r u c t i o n o r g a n i z a t i o n s .

T h e r e a r e some c o n s i d e r a t i o n s t o f i n d new management s o l u - t i o n s f o r t h e whole TPC, w i t h o u t c h a n g i n g t h e b a s i c p r e s e n t man- agement s t r u c t u r e .

S e v e r a l new models and model s y s t e m s f o r a s t e p w i s e e v a l u a - t i o n o r o p t i m i z a t i o n o f development p a t t e r n s h a v e b e e n d e v e l o p e d f o r t h e TPC a t t h e IEOIP. These models a r e i n t e n d e d t o a i d t h e p r e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s and l o n g - t e r m p l a n n i n g a s a whole.

T h e r e a r e s e v e r a l new a t t e m p t s t o f o r m a l i z e t h e g o a l - o r i e n t e d p l a n n i n g a p p r o a c h a s a p p l i e d t o TPCs. To t h e s e b e l o n g g o a l s and t a s k h i e r a r c h y methods, network m o d e l s , and methods t o d e a l w i t h u n c e r t a i n t y .

REFERENCES

[ I ] A g a n b e g y a n , A . , T h e R o l e o f t h e B r a t s k - I l i m s k Complex i n D e v e l o p i n g t h e P r o d u c t i v e F o r c e s o f S i b e r i a , i n

H . Knop, e d . , The B r a t s k - I l i m s k T e r r i t o r i a l P r o d u c t i o n Complex, CP-77-3, I n t e r n a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e f o r A p p l i e d S y s t e m s A n a l y s i s , L a x e n b u r g , A u s t r i a , 1 9 7 7 .

[ 2 ] Bandman, M . K . , e d . , O p t i m i z a t i o n M o d e l s f o r F o r m i n g TPCS, I E O I P , N o v o s i b i r s k , 1 9 7 6 .

[ 3 ] Bandman, M . K . , E x p e r i e n c e s o f O p t i m i z i n g P r o d u c t i v e a n d S p a t i a l S t r u c t u r e s o f TPCs i n S i b e r i a , i n M . K . Bandman, e d . , G e n e r a l Q u e s t i o n s o f M o d e l l i n g TPCs, I E O I P ,

N o v o s i b i r s k , 1 9 7 6 .

[ 4 ] Bandman, M . K . , S u c c e s s i o n a n d T o o l s o f O p t i m i z i n g C r e a t i o n o f TPCs, i n M . K . Bandman, e d . , G e n e r a l Q u e s t i o n s of M o d e l l i n g TPCs, I E O I P , N o v o s i b i r s k , 1 9 7 6 .

[ 5 ] B r a t s k Hydropower S t a t i o n : C o l l e c t i o n of D o c u m e n t s a n d M a t e r i a l s , V o l . 1 ( 1 9 5 5 - 1 9 6 1 ) , E a s t S i b e r i a n Book P u b l i s h e r s , I r k u t s k , 1 9 6 4 .

[61 Dubnov, K . , a n d O r l o v , P r o g r a m O b j e c t i v e s A p p r o a c h t o t h e D e v e l o p m e n t of New T e r r i t o r i e s , S i b e r i a n B r a n c h o f t h e USSR Academy o f S c i e n c e s , N o v o s i b i r s k , 1 9 7 2 . [ 7 ] F e d o r e n k o , M a i m i n a s , a n d L e i b k i n d , Complexno j e n a r o d n o

c h o s j a i s t p l a n i r o v a n j i e economics (Complex N a t i o n a l E c o n o m i c P l a n n i n g ) , USSR Academy o f S c i e n c e s , Moscow, 1 9 7 4 ( i n R u s s i a n ) .

[81 F i l s h i n , G . M . , I m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f a Long-Term P r o g r a m f o r t h e D e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e BITPC, i n H . Knop, e d . , The B r a t s k - I l i m s k T e r r i t o r i a l P r o d u c t i o n Complex, CP-77-3, I n t e r n a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e f o r A p p l i e d S y s t e m s A n a l y s i s , L a x e n b u r g , A u s t r i a , 1 9 7 7 .

[ 9 ] GOSPLAN, M c t o d i c h e s k i e u k a z a n i y a k r a z v a b o t k e g o s u d a r s t - u e n n i c h p l a n o w r a z v i t i y a n a r o d n o g o k h o z y a i s t v a S S S R

( M e t h o d o l o g i c a l G u i d e l i n e s f o r D e v e l o p i n g G o v e r n m e n t a l P l a n s f o r t h e D e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e USSR N a t i o n a l E c o n o m y ) , Moscow, 1 9 7 4 ( i n R u s s i a n )

.

[ I 01 G r a m o t e y e v a , L . I . , Long-Term P l a n n i n g i n t h e USSR a n d D e c i s i o n m a k i n g f o r t h e D e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e BITPC, i n H . Knop, e d . , The ~ r a t s k - I l i m s k T e r r i t o r i a l P r o d u c t i o n Complex, CP-77-3, I n t e r n a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e f o r A p p l i e d S y s t e m s A n a l y s i s , L a x e n b u r g , A u s t r i a , 1 9 7 7 .

[111 G r a n b e r g , A.G., a n d M , K . Bandman, M o d e l i n g o f T e r r i t o r i a l - P r o d u c t i o n S y s t e m s : C a s e S t u d y o f t h e A n g a r a - Y e n i s e i R e g i o n , i n H . Knop, e d . , The B r a t s k - I l i m s k T e r r i t o r i a l

P r o d u c t i o n C o m p l e x , CP-77-3, I n t e r n a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e f o r A p p l i e d S y s t e m s A n a l y s i s , L a x e n b u r g , A u s t r i a , 1 9 7 7 . G u k o v , V . P . , and A.N. S e m y o n o v , E x p e r i e n c e i n t h e F o r m a t i o n

o f t h e BITPC, i n H . K n o p , e d . , T h e B r a t s k - I l i m s k T e r r i - t o r i a l P r o d u c t i o n C o m p l e x , CP-77-3, I n t e r n a t i o n a l

I n s t i t u t e f o r A p p l i e d S y s t e m s A n a l y s i s , L a x e n b u r g , A u s t r i a , 1 9 7 7 .

I n f o r m a t i o n f r o m t h e C h i e f E n g i n e e r , B r a t s k g e s s t r o i . I n f o r m a t i o n f r o m t h e C h i e f E n g i n e e r , B r a t s k g e s s t r o i ,

K o z e r s k i , J u n e 2 5 , 1 9 7 6 .

I n f o r m a t i o n f r o m t h e C h i e f E n g i n e e r , B r a t s k T i m b e r C o m p l e x , J u n e 1 9 7 6 .

I n f o r m a t i o n f r o m t h e D i r e c t o r , L i m n o l o g i c a l I n s t i t u t e o f t h e S i b e r i a n B r a n c h o f t h e USSR Academy o f S c i e n c e s , J u n e 2 3 , 1 9 7 6 .

K n o p , H . , e d . , T h e B r a t s k - I l i m s k T e r r i t o r i a l P r o d u c t i o n C o m p l e x , CP-77-3, I n t e r n a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e f o r A p p l i e d S y s t e m s A n a l y s i s , L a x e n b u r g , A u s t r i a , 1 9 7 7 .

K o s y g i n , A.N., G u i d e l i n e s f o r t h e D e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e N a t i o n a l Economy o f t h e USSR f o r 1 9 7 6 - 1 9 8 0 , 2 5 t h C o n g r e s s o f t h e CPSU, G o s p o l i t i z d a t , Moscow, 1 9 7 6 , p p . 2 2 ( a ) a n d 7 2 ( b ) ( i n R u s s i a n )

.

K u r b a t o v , A . P . , and L.E. K h a l y a p i n , T h e R o l e o f t h e B r a t s k and t h e U s t - I l i m s k H y d r o p o w e r S t a t i o n s i n t h e J o i n t S i b e r i a n Power S t a t i o n , i n H . K n o p , e d . , T h e B r a t s k - I l i m s k T e r r i t o r i a l P r o d u c t i o n C o m p l e x , CP-77-3, I n t e r - n a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e f o r A p p l i e d S y s t e m s A n a l y s i s , L a x e n b u r g , A u s t r i a , 1 9 7 7 .

L y d o l p h , P a u l E . , G e o g r a p h y o f t h e USSR, W i l e y , New Y o r k , 1 9 7 7 .

M e d v e d k o v a , E . A . , P r o m y s h l e n n o s t - V e d u s h c h e e z v e n o f o r m i r o - v a n i y a n a r o d n o k h o z y a t s t v e n n o g o k o m p l e k s a s r e d n e g o p r i v r a l y a ( I n d u s t r y : F o r e m o s t L i n k i n t h e F o r m a t i o n

o f t h e E c o n o m i c C o m p l e x o f t h e Mid-Angara R e g i o n ) ,

USSR I n s t i t u t e o f G e o g r a p h y , I r k u t s k , 1 9 7 5 ( i n R u s s i a n ) . T h e N a t i o n a l Economy o f t h e USSR i n 1 9 7 5 , S t a t i s t i c s

P u b l i s h i n g H o u s e , Moscow, 1 9 7 6 .

1 9 t h C o n g r e s s o f t h e CPSU O c t o b e r 5 - 1 4 , 1 9 5 2 , G u i d e l i n e s f o r t h e 5 t h F i v e - Y e a r P l a n o f t h e D e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e USSR 1 9 5 2 - 1 9 5 5 , G o s p o l i t i z d a t , Moscow, 1 9 5 2 , V o l s . 1-2

( i n R u s s i a n )

.

OBPLAN, I r k u t s k , J u n e 1 9 7 6 .

T h e o r e t i c h e s k i y e v o p r o s s y p r o g r a m n o z e l e g o v o p l a n i r o v a n i y a ( T h e o r e t i c a l A s p e c t s o f P r o g r a m P l a n n i n g ) , USSR Academy o f S c i e n c e s , Moscow, 1 9 7 6 ( i n R u s s i a n )

.

2 0 t h C o n g r e s s o f t h e CPSU, F e b r u a r y 1 4 - 2 5 , 1 9 5 6 , s h o r t h a n d r e c o r d , G o s p o l i t i z d a t , Moscow, 1 9 5 6 , V o l s . 1 - 2 ,

p p . 443 a n d 483-484 ( i n R u s s i a n ) .

2 5 t h C o n g r e s s o f t h e CPSU, G u i d e l i n e s f o r t h e D e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e N a t i o n a l Economy o f t h e USSR f o r 1 9 7 6 - 1 9 8 0 , P r a v d a , March 7 , 1 9 7 6 , p . 7 ( i n R u s s i a n ) .

2 1 s t C o n g r e s s o f t h e CPSU, J a n u a r y 2 7 - F e b r u a r y 5 , 1 9 5 9 , s h o r t h a n d r e p o r t , V o l s . 1-2, G o s p o l i t i z d a t , Moscow, 1 9 5 9 , p . 29 ( i n R u s s i a n ) .

2 4 t h C o n g r e s s o f t h e CPSU, 1 9 7 1 - 1 9 7 5 , M a t e r i a l s , V o l s . 1 - 2 , G o s p o l i t i z d a t , Moscow, 1 9 7 1 ( i n R u s s i a n )

.

2 3 r d C o n g r e s s o f t h e CPSU, March 2 9 - A p r i l 8 , 1 9 6 6 , D i r e c - t i o n s f o r t h e F i v e - Y e a r P l a n o f t h e D e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e N a t i o n a l Economy o f t h e USSR i n 1 9 6 6 - 1 9 7 0 ,

V o l s . 1-2, G o s p o l i t i z d a t , Moscow, 1 9 6 6 ( i n R u s s i a n )

.

V o r o b y o v , V.V., L.K. Z m a n o v s k i k h , a n d G.Pl. P o d l i n y a e v , P o p u l a t i o n a n d Manpower R e s o u r c e s i n t h e BITPC, i n H . Knop, e d . , T h e B r a t s k - I l i m s k T e r r i t o r i a l P r o d u c t i o n C o m p l e x , CP-77-3, I n t e r n a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e f o r A p p l i e d S y s t e m s A n a l y s i s , L a x e n b u r g , A u s t r i a , 1 9 7 7 .

Z a r o b a e v , N.V., C o m p l e x n o e i s p o l z o v a n i e I o h r a v a v o d n i h

r e s u r s o v (Complex U s e a n d P r o t e c t i o n o f W a t e r R e s o u r c e s ) , S t r o y i z d a t , L e n i n g r a d , 1976 ( i n R u s s i a n )

.

Planning and Organization of the BITPC

PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT CHALLENGES OF TPC DEVELOPMENT

This paper presents an analytic study of the organizational and managerial dimensions of the Bratsk-Ilimsk Territorial Pro- duction Complex (BITPC). The BITPC is one example of the present trend in the Soviet economy to solve some of the problems of the sectorial-territorial interface.

Historically, and to the present time, the development of the Soviet economy has been managed mainly through a sectorially organized planning and management system. The development of a territorial production complex (TPC) hinges on the notion of intersectorial activity, complemented by social and technical infrastructure development whose timing in a frontier leaves little margin for slippage. A TPC-based development strategy thus places new demands on the Soviet planning and management system. These demands pose five planning and management chal- lenges which are characteristic of TPC development, particularly in the formative period.

F i r s t , the definition of TPC specialization presents special

challenges to the national planning system. The rather separate justification of investments, supported by national norms and standards, may be sufficient for the bulk of Soviet investment

challenges to the national planning system. The rather separate justification of investments, supported by national norms and standards, may be sufficient for the bulk of Soviet investment

Im Dokument The Bratsk-Ilimsk Territorial Production Complex: A Field Study Report (Seite 25-97)