THE BRATSK-ILIMSK TERRITORIAL PRODUCTION COMPLEX: A FIELD STUDY REPORT
H. Knop and A. Straszak, Editore
RR-78-2 May 1978
Research Reports provide the formal record of research conducted by the International lnstitute for Applied Systems Analysis. They are carefully reviewed before publication and represent, in the Institute's best judgment, competent scientific work. Views or opinions expressed therein, however, do not necessarily reflect those of the National Member Organizations supporting the lnstitute or of the lnstitute itself.
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
A-236 1 Laxenburg, Austria
Copyright
@
1978 IIASAAU
' hts reserved. No part of this publication may be repro7
uced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publieher.Preface
The Management and Technology Area of IIASA has carried out case studies of large-scale development programs since 1975. The purpose of these studies is to examine successful programs of regional development from an international perspective, with a multidisciplinary team of scientists skilled in the use of systems analysis.
The study of the Bratsk-Ilimsk Territorial Production Complex (BITPC) represents an interim effort in our research activities. The first study was of the Tennessee Valley Authority in the United States*, forthcoming is the study of the Shinkansen development program in Japan.
The present Report covers six major aspects of the BITPC program:
goals, variants, and strategies; planning and organization; model calculations and computer applications; integration of environmental factors; energy supply systems; and water resources. I t is hoped that the experience of the Soviet scientists and practitioners and the observations and suggestions of the study team will ~ r o v i d e the IIASA National Member Organizations with "
insights into problem solving in the management, planning, and organization of large-scale development programs.
The study was accomplished with the support and assistance of the USSR State Committee for Science and Technology, and the Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering of the Siberian Branch of the USSR Academy of Sciences. Special thanks are given to G. Aleksenko, Academician A. Aganbegyan, V. Smirnov, G. Filshin, V. Gukov, and K. Kosmachov for their assistance in preparing and implementing the field study.
*Hans Knop, ed. The Tennessee Valley Authority Experience, 2 vols., CP 76-2, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, 1976.
Contents
Introduction
Concept, Goals, and Strategies of the BITPC Planning and Organization of the BITPC Models for Regional Development Planning Automated Management Systems in the BITPC
Integration of Environmental Factors in the Development of a Territorial Production Complex
Energy Supply Systems
Water Resource Development in the BITPC
I n t r o d u c t i o n
P l a n n i n g , managing and o r g a n i z i n g l a r g e - s c a l e development programs a r e complex a c t i v i t i e s c a r r i e d o u t by many g o v e r n m e n t s , l o c a l a u t h o r i t i e s and c o r p o r a t i o n s . T e c h n o l o g i c a l , p o l i t i c a l , economic, s o c i a l and e n v i r o n m e n t a l f a c t o r s must be t a k e n i n t o a c c o u n t when s e e k i n g s o l u t i o n s t o problems i n t h i s a r e a . Systems A n a l y s i s h a s proved i n c r e a s i n g l y h e l p f u l f o r t h e s e p u r p o s e s .
Because o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l i n t e r e s t i n t h i s s u b j e c t t h e IIASA Management and Technology Area l a u n c h e d a s e r i e s o f s t u d i e s o f l a r g e - s c a l e development programs w o r l d w i d e . The f i r s t s t u d y was t h e T e n n e s s e e V a l l e y A u t h o r i t y (TVA) i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s . The B r a t s k - I l i m s k T e r r i t o r i a l P r o d u c t i o n Department (BITPC) i n t h e S o v i e t Union i s t h e s e c o n d i n t h i s s e r i e s ; t h e t h i r d w i l l be t h e S h i n k a n s e n s u p e r e x p r e s s r a i l w a y program i n J a p a n .
These s t u d i e s c o v e r program p r e p a r a t i o n and i m p l e m e n t a t i o n i n c l u d i n g g o a l s e t t i n g , e l a b o r a t i o n o f a l t e r n a t i v e s , d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s e s and s e l e c t i o n , o r g a n i z a t i o n a l s t r u c t u r e and f u n c t i o n i n g , model c a l c u l a t i o n s , and computer a p p l i c a t i o n , a s w e l l a s i n t e g r a -
t i o n o f e n v i r o n m e n t a l f a c t o r s i n p l a n n i n g and d e c i s i o n m a k i n g . The o b j e c t i v e s o f t h e s e s t u d i e s a r e a s f o l l o w s :
-
To l e a r n a b o u t problems and s o l u t i o n s i n l a r g e - s c a l e development programs;-
To o b t a i n a b e t t e r u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e r e s p e c t i v e socio-economic e n v i r o n m e n t s ;-
To e x t r a c t and g e n e r a l i z e m e t h o d o l o g i c a l e x p e r i e n c e s ;-
To a s c e r t a i n p r i n c i p l e s and methods a p p l i c a b l e t o t h e development o f o t h e r l a r g e - s c a l e p r o d u c t i o n complexes.Each s t u d y h a s b e e n p r e c e d e d by an i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o n f e r e n c e a t IIASA [ I , 2 ] , f o l l o w e d by a f i e l d s t u d y and r e p o r t by an IIASA team o f s c i e n t i s t s .
The r e s u l t s o f t h e f i e l d s t u d y a t B r a t s k - I l i m s k a r e p r e s e n t e d i n t h i s R e p o r t . During t h e f i e l d s t u d y , IIASA s c i e n t i s t s worked a s a team a s w e l l a s i n s e p a r a t e working g r o u p s . These working g r o u p s a r e r e s p o n s i b l e f o r t h e v a r i o u s p a p e r s i n t h i s R e p o r t . The c o m p o s i t i o n o f t h e s e g r o u p s and t h e i r s u b j e c t a r e a s a r e a s f o l l o w s :
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G o a l s , V a r i a n t s , and S t r a t e g i e s o f t h e BITPC:Hans Knop, Rolf P i e p l o w , John Tomb, and D e t l o f von W i n t e r f e l d t .
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P l a n n i n g and O r g a n i z a t i o n o f t h e BITPC: C y r i l D a v i e s , Ada D e b , Raul E s p e j o , and Roman O s t r o w s k i .-
Models f o r R e g i o n a l Development P l a n n i n g : J a n Owskinski, K u r t S c h a f f i r , and A n d r z e j S t r a s z a k .-
Automated Management Systems i n t h e BITPC:Bohumil Mazel, and K u r t S c h a f f i r .
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I n t e g r a t i o n o f E n v i r o n m e n t a l F a c t o r s i n t h e BITPC Development: David F i s c h e r , S a b u r o I k e d a , R o b e r t Tuch, W i l l i a m Matthews, and Weseley F o e l l .-
Energy Supply Systems: Plamen T s v e t a n o v .-
Water Resource Development i n t h e BITPC: I l y a Gouevsky.F o r t h e p u r p o s e of a u n i f i e d r e p o r t , t h e r e have been c r o s s - c o n t r i b u t i o n s o f working g r o u p s t o o t h e r p a p e r s .
The s t u d y o f t h e BITPC was s p o n s o r e d by t h e USSR S t a t e Committee f o r S c i e n c e and Technology. A g r o u p o f S o v i e t s c i e n - t i s t s l e d by Academician A. Aganbegyan t o o k p a r t i n t h e i n t e r - n a t i o n a l c o n f e r e n c e , i n t h e p r e p a r a t i o n s f o r t h e f i e l d s t u d y , and i n t h e i n t e r n a l o r g a n i z a t i o n of t h e s t u d y i n t h e USSR, and p l a y e d t h e i m p o r t a n t r o l e o f c o n s u l t a n t s t o t h e IIASA team.
T h i s g r o u p had t h e f o l l o w i n g c o m p o s i t i o n : V i a c h e s l a v Smirnov, Gennady F i l s h i n , V l a d i m i r Gukov, K i r i l l Kosmachov, and Leonid KO z l o v
.
The IIASA s c i e n t i s t s had c r e d i b l e a c c e s s t o t h e o r g a n i z a - t i o n s s c h e d u l e d f o r i n t e r v i e w s . A l l s c i e n t i s t s i n v o l v e d r e c o g - n i z e d t h e h e l p f u l n e s s of t h o s e i n t e r v i e w e d . The IIASA s c i e n t i s t s d e v e l o p e d a good r a p p o r t w i t h t h e i r S o v i e t c o u n t e r p a r t s and
accompanying t r a n s l a t o r s . C l o s e communication o v e r t h e t h r e e week s t u d y p e r i o d c o n t r i b u t e d t o a b r o a d u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e c o n c e p t s and t h e c o n t e x t o f t h e S o v i e t p l a n n i n g and management s y s t e m .
I n a d d i t i o n , t h e S o v i e t s c i e n t i s t s accompanying t h e g r o u p i n S i b e r i a r e t u r n e d t o IIASA t o s t u d y and d i s c u s s t h e g r o u p ' s f i n d i n g s . T h i s r e v i e w f u r t h e r added t o t h e v e r i f i c a t i o n p r o c e s s .
The s c h e d u l e o f t h e f i e l d t r i p was p r e p a r e d i n advance and t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n s t o be s t u d i e d were s e l e c t e d by t h e head o f t h e s t u d y g r o u p i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h t h e S o v i e t s c i e n t i s t s . A t t h e i n s t i t u t i o n s v i s i t e d , s e v e r a l hundred S o v i e t s c i e n t i s t s and government o f f i c i a l s a t t e n d e d t h e m e e t i n g s , and g a v e p r e s e n t a - t i o n s a n d / o r i n t e r v i e w s . These i n s t i t u t i o n s a r e a s f o l l o w s :
Moscow
GOSPLAN ( S t a t e P l a n n i n g C o m m i t t e e o f t h e S o v i e t C o u n c i l o f M i n i s t e r s )
SOPS ( C o u n c i l f o r t h e S t u d y o f P r o d u c t i o n F o r c e s u n d e r GOSPLAN o f t h e USSR)
KEPS ( C o m m i t t e e o f P r o d u c t i o n F o r c e s a n d N a t u r a l R e s o u r c e s o f t h e P r e s i d i u m o f t h e USSR Academy o f S c i e n c e s )
CEMI ( C e n t r a l Economic M a t h e m a t i c s I n s t i t u t e o f o f t h e USSR)
CERI ( C e n t r a l Economic R e s e a r c h I n s t i t u t e t h e R u s s i a n F e d e r a t i o n )
Moscow S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y
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D e p a r t m e n t o f G e o g r a p h y SCST ( S t a t e C o m m i t t e e f o r S c i e n c e a n d T e c h n o l o g yo f t h e USSR)
HMS ( H y d r o m e t e o r o l o g i c a l S e r v i c e ) M i n i s t r y o f E n e r g y
ENERGOSETPROJECT
-
d e s i g n i n s t i t u t e f o r e n e r g y s y s t e m sI n s t i t u t e o f G e o g r a p h y , USSR Academy o f S c i e n c e s
~ o v o s i b i r s k (Academgorodok)
IEOIP ( I n s t i t u t e o f E c o n o m i c s a n d I n d u s t r i a l E n g i n e e r i n g , S i b e r i a n B r a n c h o f USSR Academy o f S c i e n c e s )
I n s t i t u t e o f M a t h e m a t i c s , S i b e r i a n B r a n c h o f t h e USSR Academy o f S c i e n c e s
C o m p u t i n g C e n t e r o f t h e S i b e r i a n B r a n c h o f t h e USSR Academy o f S c i e n c e s
I r k u t s k
S i b e r i a n I n s t i t u t e o f E n e r g e t i c s , S i b e r i a n B r a n c h o f USSR Academy o f S c i e n c e s
I n s t i t u t e o f G e o g r a p h y o f S i b e r i a n a n d t h e F a r E a s t , S i b e r i a n B r a n c h o f USSR Academy o f S c i e n c e s
I r k u t s k B r a n c h o f IEOIP
OBPLAN
-
P l a n n i n g Commission o f t h e O b l a s t S o v i e t I r k u t s k H y d r o m e t e o r o l o g i c a l BranchLake B a i k a l
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I n s t i t u t e o f Limnology o f t h e S i b e r i a n Branch o f t h e USSR Academy o f S c i e n c e sB r a t s k
E x e c u t i v e Committee o f B r a t s k B r a t s k g e s s t r o i
B r a t s k H y d r o e l e c t r i c p o w e r s t a t i o n Aluminium P l a n t
Timber P r o c e s s i n g Complex B r a t s k Hydrometeorology Branch B r a t s k C u l t u r a l C e n t e r
U s t - I l i m s k
B r a t s k g e s s t r o i U s t - I l i m s k Branch U s t - I l i m s k Hydropower S t a t i o n C e l l u l o s e p l a n t c o n s t r u c t i o n s i t e
STUDY PERSPECTIVE AND APPROACH
The BITPC i s one o f t h e m a j o r TPCs i n t h e USSR. The method u s e d f o r t h e IIASA s t u d y was a r e t r o s p e c t i v e c a s e a n a l y s i s . Such h i n d s i g h t r e v i e w s c a n be v a l u a b l e t o o l s f o r u t i l i z i n g i n f o r m a t i o n a b o u t p a s t p r o j e c t s i n f u t u r e p l a n n i n g of s i m i l a r development p r o j e c t s . By m o n i t o r i n g d e v e l o p m e n t , i t i s p o s s i b l e t o show how s u c c e s s f u l t h e p r o j e c t was i n a t t a i n i n g p r e s c r i b e d g o a l s , how u n f o r e s e e n i m p a c t s - - p o l i t i c a l , e c o n o m i c a l , t e c h n o l o g i c a l , e n v i r o n m e n t a l and o t h e r w i s e - - w e r e t a k e n i n t o a c c o u n t , and how t h e d e v e l o p m e n t p r o c e s s was a d a p t e d t o c h a n g i n g s e t s of c i r c u m - s t a n c e s o v e r t i m e . Such r e v i e w s , however, a r e n o t common. The p o t e n t i a l f o r c r i t i c i s m , t h e problems o f i m p a r t i a l i t y , and t h e d i f f i c u l t y o f c o n f i r m i n g p a s t p e r c e p t i o n s may e x p l a i n t h e g e n e r a l r e l u c t a n c e t o u n d e r t a k e r e t r o s p e c t i v e r e v i e w s . Thus, i t was o f immense i n t e r e s t t h a t t h e BITPC i n v i t e d a team o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e s e a r c h e r s t o s t u d y t h e i r p e r f o r m a n c e .
The i n t e r v i e w f o r m a t was u s e d t o c o n d u c t t h e s t u d y . Gener- a l l y e a c h u n i t opened w i t h a s t a t e m e n t summarizing i t s t a s k s ,
o r g a n i z a t i o n , and r o l e . ~ o l l o w i n g t h i s p r e s e n t a t i o n , q u e s t i o n s o f c l a r i f i c a t i o n , f o l l o w - u p a n d e v e n o p p o s i n g p o i n t s w e r e r a i s e d . The s e s s i o n s w e r e o f t e n c h a r a c t e r i z e d by i n - d e p t h d i s c u s s i o n s o f b o t h s p e c i f i c p o i n t s and g e n e r a l p r i n c i p l e s . A l l s e s s i o n s w e r e r e c o r d e d . T r a n s l a t o r s w e r e n e e d e d a t a l m o s t a l l m e e t i n g s .
T h e s e i n t e r v i e w s e s s i o n s , c o n d u c t e d o v e r a t h r e e week p e r i o d a n d t h e m a t e r i a l f r o m t h e IIASA C o n f e r e n c e on t h e BITPC c o n s t i t u t e t h e d a t a b a s e o f t h i s R e p o r t . W r i t t e n s o u r c e m a t e r i a l s h a v e b e e n u s e d w h e r e a v a i l a b l e , r e a d a b l e , a n d a p p l i c a b l e . The R e p o r t con- t a i n s o b s e r v a t i o n s and r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s c o m p i l e d on t h e b a s i s o f i n t e r v i e w s , d i r e c t o b s e r v a t i o n s , a n d t h e e x p e r i e n c e s o f t h e p a r t i c i p a t i n g s c i e n t i s t s .
STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS
Any s t u d y h a s i t s s t r e n g t h and l i m i t a t i o n s and t h i s o n e h a s i t s s h a r e a s w e l l . As s t r e n g t h s we i n c l u d e t h e f o l l o w i n g :
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M u l t i d i s c i p l i n a r y n a t u r e o f t h e team;-
I n t e r n a t i o n a l c h a r a c t e r o f t h e IIASA s c i e n t i s t s ;-
U n i v e r s a l i t y o f t h e p r o b l e m s o f p l a n n i n g , manage- m e n t a n d o r g a n i z a t i o n ;-
S u p p o r t o f t h e USSR S t a t e Committee f o r S c i e n c e a n d T e c h n o l o g y ;-
I n t e g r a t i o n o f t h e s c i e n t i f i c v i e w s o f t h e m a j o r P a r t o f t h e t e a m i n a d v a n c e ;-
R a p p o r t o f t e a m members w i t h t h e S o v i e t s c i e n t i s t s ;-
R e c o r d i n g o f s e s s i o n s a n d t h e S o v i e t r e v i e w o f t h e R e p o r t .C e r t a i n l y , t h e m a j o r s t r e n g t h i s t h e m u l t i d i s c i p l i n a r y n a t u r e o f t h e s t u d y t e a m w h i c h s e t s t h e s t a g e f o r t h e w i d e r a n g e o f q u e s t i o n s a n d c o n c l u s i o n s d r a w n f r o m b o t h t h e i n t e r v i e w s and t h e d i r e c t o b s e r v a t i o n s made d u r i n g t h e c o u r s e o f t h e s t u d y . With t h e e x c e p t i o n o f t h e e n v i r o n m e n t a l g r o u p t h e w o r k i n g g r o u p s w e r e a b l e t o i n t e g r a t e t h e i r s c i e n t i f i c v i e w s i n a d v a n c e s o a s t o c o n d u c t t h e f i e l d t r i p w i t h a common v i e w . E l e v e n n a t i o n s w e r e r e p r e s e n t e d i n t h e g r o u p , t h u s g i v i n g i t a n i n t e r n a t i o n a l dimen- s i o n .
The s t u d y l i m i t a t i o n s i n c l u d e p r o c e d u r a l h a n d i c a p s ( e . g . t i m e c o n s t r a i n t s , d e p e n d e n c e on t r a n s l a t i o n , l i m i t e d p r o g r a m f l e x i b i l i t y ) , a l a c k o f knowledge o f t h e S o v i e t p l a n n i n g a n d management s y s t e m on t h e p a r t o f some t e a m members, a n d l i m i t e d e x p e r i e n c e w i t h i n t e r n a t i o n a l s t u d i e s i n t h i s f i e l d .
REFERENCES
[I] Knop, H., ed., The Tennessee VaZZey Authority Experience, 2 vols., CP-77-76-2, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, 1976.
(21 Knop, H. ed., The Bratsk-IZimsk TerritoriaZ Production CompZex, CP-77-3, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, 1977.
C o n c e p t , G o a l s , a n d S t r a t e g i e s o f t h e BITPC
THE BITPC WITHIN THE NATIONAL FRAMEWORK
A s o n e o f t h e f i r s t t e r r i t o r i a l p r o d u c t i o n c o m p l e x e s (TPCs) t o b e i m p l e m e n t e d i n t h e S o v i e t U n i o n , t h e B r a t s k - I l i m s k T e r r i - t o r i a l P r o d u c t i o n Complex (BITPC) p l a y s a w i d e r r o l e t h a n c a n b e o b s e r v e d f r o m i t s i m p r e s s i v e p r o d u c t i o n s t a t i s t i c s . The d e v e l o p - ment o f t h e BITPC h a s b e e n a n i n t e g r a l p a r t o f t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e n a t i o n a l economy. The c o n c e p t s , g o a l s , a n d s t r a t e g i e s o f t h e BITPC s h o u l d b e v i e w e d w i t h i n t h e framework o f t h e n a t i o n a l economy a n d w i t h i n t h e r e g i o n a l framework o f S i b e r i a .
The BITPC i s c o n s i d e r e d a f o r e r u n n e r o f t h e TPC c o n c e p t , a n d i t s s u c c e s s i n a c c o m p l i s h i n g i t s g o a l s h a s i n f l u e n c e d t h e d e v e l - opment o f TPCs i n S i b e r i a and o t h e r r e g i o n s o f t h e S o v i e t Union.
The i m p o r t a n c e o f t h e TPC c o n c e p t o n t h e n a t i o n a l a n d r e g i o n a l b a s e s d e v e l o p e d w i t h t h e e x p e r i e n c e o b t a i n e d by S o v i e t s c i e n t i s t s , p l a n n e r s , a n d p r a c t i t i o n e r s i n c o n q u e r i n g a n d s e t t l i n g t h e h a r s h e n v i r o n m e n t a l o n g t h e Angara R i v e r .
The BITPC a s a N a t i o n a l Task
The m a j o r t a s k o f t h e n a t i o n a l economy o f t h e USSR i s t o i m p r o v e t h e l i v i n g s t a n d a r d s a n d c u l t u r a l l e v e l o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n o n t h e b a s i s o f a d y n a m i c a n d b a l a n c e d d e v e l o p m e n t o f s o c i a l p r o - d u c t i o n , t h e e n h a n c e m e n t o f i t s e f f i c i e n c y , t h e a c c e l e r a t i o n o f
s c i e n t i f i c a n d t e c h n o l o g i c a l p r o g r e s s , t h e g r o w t h o f l a b o r p r o d u c - t i v i t y , a n d t h e u t m o s t improvement o f t h e q u a l i t y o f work i n a l l s e c t o r s o f t h e n a t i o n a l economy [ l a ] . T h i s was e s p e c i a l l y e v i d e n t d u r i n g t h e p e r i o d a f t e r t h e Second World War w i t h t h e r e s t o r a t i o n of t h e n a t i o n a l economy when t h e r a t e o f g r o w t h o f t h e economy was v e r y h i g h a n d t h e n e e d f o r c h e a p e n e r g y a n d r a w m a t e r i a l s g r e w v e r y q u i c k l y .
G i v e n t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t e n e r g y s o u r c e s a n d r a w m a t e r i a l s i n t h e E u r o p e a n P a r t o f t h e USSR would become s c a r c e i f t h e e c o - nomic g r o w t h r a t e s c o n t i n u e d a t t h e p o s t - w a r l e v e l , i t was n e c e s - s a r y t o d e t e r m i n e how t o e n s u r e f u r t h e r economic p r o g r e s s . I t was a l r e a d y known t h a t i n S i b e r i a , i n p a r t s o f M i d d l e A s i a , a n d i n t h e F a r N o r t h r e g i o n s o f t h e USSR, v e r y a b u n d a n t s o u r c e s o f c h e a p e n e r g y a n d r a w m a t e r i a l s e x i s t e d . Taken t o g e t h e r , t h e s e a r e a s c o m p r i s e more t h a n o n e h a l f t h e t o t a l l a n d a r e a o f t h e S o v i e t U n i o n , w h i l e a c c o u n t i n g f o r o n l y a b o u t 1 0 p e r c e n t o f t h e t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n . F i g u r e 1 p r e s e n t s a map o f t h e S o v i e t Union w i t h t h e d i v i s i o n o f a r e a s a c c o r d i n g t o economic p l a n n i n g r e g i o n s Of s p e c i a l i m p o r t a n c e t o t h i s s t u d y a r e t h e S i b e r i a n economic
planning regions: West Siberia, East Siberia, and the Far East.
Table 1 gives an overview of the economic planning regions and population data.
There is little doubt that Siberian regions contain exten- sive amounts of energy resources and raw materials: oil, natural gas, coal, timber, hydroelectric power potential, gold, iron ore, uranium, etc. The exact quantities that are available and ex- tractable are still being determined.
In the early 1950s, a strategic decision was made to proceed with large-scale development in the Siberian and the Far North regions. It was decided to utilize the cheap energy available and to establish power-intensive industries. The products of these industries would be transported to the manufacturing indus- tries of the European section of the USSR. Where possible,
secondary manufacturing industries would be established in the Siberian and Middle Asian Regions as an alternative to transporting unfinished products. In line with this decision, Western Siberia is currently undergoing the most intensive development and explora- tion, and certain regions in Eastern Siberia are also being inten- sively developed. The BITPC is located in Eastern Siberia and has done much to lead the development and expansion of the use of natural resources in this Region.
Figure 2 presents a generalized map of the Region in which the BITPC is located and the major industries attached to the production complex. These industries are power intensive--that is, it was necessary to have a power source available which would meet the development demands for both industrial and private use.
The solution was to utilize the vast potential of the Angara River by constructing the Bratsk hydroelectric power station (HEPS) which, at the time of its commissioning, was the largest capacity dam in the world. The importance of the Bratsk HEPS cannot be emphasized enough. Together with the completion of the Ust-Ilimsk and the Bogouchany HEPSs, the BITPC will have one of the world's largest power bases. Production from the HEPSs is not restricted to the BITPC; power is fed directly into the Siberian integrated power system. The development of the Angara-Yenisei power system is discussed later in this paper, but it is appropriate here to present a short overview of the power facilities that are operating in the Region and those that are approaching completion.
Table 2 gives a generalized breakdown of the Angara-Yenisei Cascade according to its basic characteristics. Table 3 presents the role of the Bratsk HEPS in the Siberian Joint Electric Power System (JEPS)
.
The start of construction of the Bratsk HEPS signaled the beginning of a remarkable transition from a basically rural region, sparsely settled with small communities and villages, to a region characterized by rapid growth of urban centers connected by a transportation system of railways and roads. Special construction
T a b l e 1 . Economic p l a n n i n g r e g i o n s o f t h e USSR a c c o r d i n g t o a r e a and p o p u l a t i o n ( a s o f 1 J a n u a r y , 1976).
Economic P l a n n i n g A r e a P o p u l a t i o n Urban
R e g i o n ( t h o u s a n d b2) ( t h o u s a n d s ) ( p e r b2) ( % )
I. S i b e r i a
W e s t e r n S i b e r i a 2427.2 1 2 , 5 0 3 5.2 6 7 . 6
E a s t e r n S i b e r i a 4122.8 7 , 9 0 4 1 . 9 6 7 . 9
F a r E a s t 6 2 1 5 . 9 6 , 5 7 9 1.1 75.4
...
T o t a l S i b e r i a 1 2 , 7 6 5 . 9 2 6 , 9 8 6 2 . 1 6 9 . 6
...
11. U r a l 6 8 0 . 4 1 5 , 3 8 5 22.6 74.2
...
C e n t r a l ( i n c l u d e s
Moscow) 4 8 5 . 1 2 8 , 3 7 6 5 8 . 5 76.9
NW ( i n c l u d e s
L e n i n g r a d ) 1 6 2 2 . 8 1 2 , 9 0 5 7 . 8 78.2
Volga-Vyatka 2 6 3 . 3 8 , 2 7 5 31.4 6 0 . 6
C e n t r a l Chernozem 1 6 7 . 7 7 , 7 6 1 4 6 . 3 4 9 . 8
V o l g a 7 1 1 . 6 1 7 , 9 6 0 2 5 . 2 6 3 . 0
S o u t h West 269.4 2 1 , 3 1 3 7 9 . 1 4 4 . 6
D o n e t s - D n i e p e r 220.9 2 0 , 8 2 9 94.3 7 4 . 5
N o r t h C a u c a s u s 355.1 1 5 , 0 9 9 4 2 . 5 54.2
S o u t h 1 1 3 . 4 7 , 2 2 3 6 3 . 7 6 3 . 6
M o l d a v i a 33.7 3 , 8 5 0 1 1 4 . 3 37.0
W h i t e R u s s i a 2 0 7 . 6 9 , 3 7 1 4 5 . 1 52 .O
B a l t i c 1 8 9 . 1 8 , 0 3 5 4 2 . 5 6 4 .O
T r a n s C a u c a s u s 1 8 6 . 1 1 3 , 4 7 7 7 2 . 4 5 3 . 8
...
111. T o t a l West o f
t h e U r a l s 4 8 6 5 . 8 1 7 4 , 4 7 4 3 5 . 9 6 2 . 3
...
IV. C e n t r a l A s i a
C e n t r a l A s i a 1 2 7 7 . 1 2 3 , 5 1 4 1 8 . 4 3 9 . 8
K a z a k h a s t a n 2717.3 1 4 , 3 3 7 5 . 3 54 .O
...
V. T o t a l C e n t r a l A s i a 3994.4 3 7 , 8 5 1 9 . 5 4 5 . 1
...
TOTAL USSR 2 2 , 4 0 2 . 0 2 5 5 , 5 2 4 1 1 . 5 6 1 . 0
A f t e r : [22]
Table 2. Characteristics of planned and existing hydroelectric stations of the Angara-Yenisei Cascade. Source: [32, p. 721 HES Hydroelect. Stations Irkutsk Bratsk Ust-Ilimsk Bogouchany Sayansk Krasnoyarsk River Angara Angara Angara Angara Yenisei Yenisei Commis- sioning year 1956 1961 1974 1985-1990 1978 1967 Design head (in meters) 26 106 86 6 5 194 9 3 Installed capacity, MW (in million of W) 660 4,500 4,320 4,000 6,400 6,000
Average annual runoff (in km3) 60 9 2 101 107 4 7 88 Average long-term output (in lo9 kWh) 4.1 22.6
Reservoir capacity run- (lan3) off, (%) 46.0 77 48.2 52.5 2.8 3 2.3 2 14.0 30 30.4 36 Regulation long term long tern seasonal seasonal 23.7 seasonal 20.4 annual
T a b l e 3. R o l e of t h e B r a t s k HEPS i n t h e S i b e r i a n J o i n t E l e c t r i c
Power System (JEPS)
.
Source: [19, p. 1901
t e c h n i q u e s had t o b e d e v e l o p e d owing t o e x t r e m e c l i m a t i c c o n d i - t i o n s : o v e r 30 O C i n summer and sometimes l e s s t h a n -30 O C i n w i n t e r . The a d a p t a t i o n of t h e w o r k e r s and s e t t l e r s t o t h e s e c l i m a t i c c o n d i t i o n s a l s o r e q u i r e d s p e c i a l s o l u t i o n s .
The a r e a of t h e BITPC c o v e r s a p p r o x i m a t e l y 90,000 km2 and i n c l u d e s t h r e e a d m i n i s t r a t i v e r e g i o n s of t h e I r k u t s k O b l a s t : t h e B r a t s k d i s t r i c t w i t h a n a r e a of 33,000 k m 2 , t h e U s t - I l i m s k d i s - t r i c t w i t h a n a r e a of 27,000 k m 2 , and t h e N i z h n e i - I l i m s k d i s t r i c t w i t h a n a r e a o f 29,500 k m 2 .
1974
48.5 28.0 5 8 1974 7700 4090
53
D u r i n g t h e p e r i o d 1959-1974, t h e p o p u l a t i o n o f t h e BITPC h a s i n c r e a s e d 1 . 3 t i m e s , t h e u r b a n p o p u l a t i o n h a s grown 3 . 5 t i m e s , and t h e r u r a l p o p u l a t i o n h a s d e c l i n e d 6 p e r c e n t . The n e t w o r k o f u r b a n t y p e s e t t l e m e n t s i n t h e BITPC now i n c l u d e s f o u r towns:
B r a t s k , U s t - I l i m s k , Z h e l e z n o g o r s k - I l i m s k , and V i k h o r e v k a ; t h e r e a r e a l s o e i g h t s e t t l e m e n t s a p p r o a c h i n g t h e u r b a n c l a s s i f i c a t i o n . T w o - t h i r d s o f t h e t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n of t h e BITPC i s c o n c e n t r a t e d i n t h e s e f o u r towns ( s e e T a b l e s 4 and 5 ) .
1973
48.9
23 -0 4 7 1973 7 160 3040
4 2 1972
46.1 23.3
50 1972 6590 3420
5 2 1971
44.3 22.8 5 1 1971 6470 3660 5 7 Total output of HEPSs
in the Angara-Yenisei Cascade (10' kWh)
Total output of the Bratsk HEPS (lo9 kWh)
Percentage of Bratsk HEPS in Siberian JEPS
WINTER PEAK LOADS All HEPS stations in Siberian JEPS (1000 kW) Bratsk HEPS contribution
(1000 kW)
Bratsk HEPS contribution ( % )
1970
42.2 20.3 4 8 1970 5990 2760
46
T a b l e 4. P o p u l a t i o n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e BITPC, 1 9 7 4 .
A f t e r : [ 3 1 ]
T a b l e 5. Urban a n d r u r a l p o p u l a t i o n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , 1959-1974.
T r e n d
I n c r e a s i n g I n c r e a s i n g I n c r e a s i n g I n c r e a s i n g I n c r e a s i n g S t a b l e - d e c l i n i n g I n c r e a s i n g S e t t l e m e n t s
B r a t s k U s t - I l i m s k Z h e l e z n o g o r s k V i k h o r e v k a 8 U r b a n - t y p e R u r a l TOTAL
T a b l e 5 g i v e s t h e g e n e r a l p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e f r o m 1959 t o 1 9 7 4 , b r o k e n down i n t o u r b a n a n d r u r a l c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s .
M i g r a t i o n , o f c o u r s e , p l a y s a l a r g e r o l e i n t h e o v e r a l l i n c r e a s e o f p o p u l a t i o n i n t h i s a r e a . Of t h e t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e o f 2 2 7 , 0 0 0 i n t h e p e r i o d 1959-1974, m i g r a t i o n a c c o u n t e d f o r 1 4 9 , 0 0 0 o r 6 6 $ , a n d n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e f o r 7 8 , 0 0 0 o r 3 4 % . M i g r a t i o n i n f l u x t o B r a t s k was 75% o f t h e i n c r e a s e , 8 7 % f o r U s t - I l i m s k , 7 8 % f o r Z h e l e z n o g o r s k , a n d 50% i n V i k h o r e v k a .
P o p u l a t i o n
1 8 2 , 6 2 0 3 1 , 7 6 0 2 7 , 7 9 0 1 9 , 8 5 0 5 9 , 9 5 0 7 5 , 4 3 0 3 9 7 , 0 0 0
R u r a l
7 9 , 9 0 0 ( 4 7 % ) 7 5 , 4 3 0 ( 1 9 % )
4 , 4 7 0 ( D e c r e a s e ) ( 6 . % ) Year
1 9 5 9 1974
I n c r e a s e
S p e c i a l p r o g r a m s h a v e b e e n i n t r o d u c e d t o a t t r a c t s e t t l e r s and w o r k e r s t o t h e BITPC a r e a . Wages a r e f r o m 1 . 3 t o 1 . 6 t i m e s t h e n o r m a l f o r t h e USSR, and a 1 0 % i n c r e a s e i n t h e m o n t h l y wage i s a l l o w e d f o r e a c h y e a r o f s e r v i c e , u p t o a maximum o f 5 0 % .
% o f T o t a l
46 8 7 5 1 5 1 9
...
100
T o t a l P o p u l a t i o n
1 7 0 , 0 0 0 3 9 7 , 0 0 0
2 2 7 , 0 0 0 ( 1 3 0 % )
Urban
9 0 , 1 0 0 ( 5 3 % ) 3 2 1 , 5 7 0 ( 8 1 % )
2 3 1 , 4 7 0 ( 3 5 0 % )
Those working f o r more t h a n two y e a r s r e c e i v e a n a d d i t i o n a l 12 d a y s l e a v e and f r e e v a c a t i o n t r a v e l . F u l l wages a r e p a i d t o t h o s e who a r e t e m p o r a r i l y d i s a b l e d . E a r l y r e t i r e m e n t i s a l s o p o s s i b l e ' f o r t h o s e working f o r a t l e a s t 20 y e a r s i n t h e BITPC. Men c a n r e t i r e a t 55 y e a r s - - f i v e y e a r s e a r l i e r t h a n t h e norm, and women a t 50, a l s o f i v e y e a r s e a r l i e r t h a n t h e norm.
The wage and b e n e f i t s t r u c t u r e h a s d o n e much t o i n f l u e n c e t h e g r o w t h of t h e BITPC, b u t t h e s e b e n e f i t s a r e i n a d d i t i o n t o t h e s o c i a l and c u l t u r a l o p p o r t u n i t i e s o f f e r e d by t h e BITPC.
S p e c i a l t r a i n i n g programs a r e a v a i l a b l e t o u p g r a d e and u p d a t e a w o r k e r ' s s k i l l s , q u a l i t y e d u c a t i o n a l f a c i l i t i e s a r e b e i n g expanded, and new h o u s i n g i s b e i n g b u i l t t o k e e p up w i t h i n c r e a s i n g demand.
F i g u r e 3 p r e s e n t s t h e main i n d u s t r i a l p r o d u c t i o n c e n t e r s i n t h e BITPC and t h e i r r e l a t i v e i n d u s t r i a l o u t p u t i n 1974. The f o r e s t p r o d u c t s i n d u s t r y p e r m e a t e s t h e e n t i r e BITPC complex;
t h i s i s u n d e r s t a n d a b l e when o n e o b s e r v e s t h e amount o f f o r e s t l a n d s i n t h e Angara Region. Almost 90 p e r c e n t of t h e t o t a l a r e a i s f o r e s t e d ( a p p r o x i m a t e l y 7.8 m i l l i o n h a ) . Timber r e s e r v e s a r e e s t i m a t e d a t 1.4 b i l l i o n m 3 . The r e s e r v e s of m a t n r e and o v e r - m a t u r e s t a n d s of t h e c o n i f e r o u s s p e c i e s r e a c h 257.5 m3/ha,
242.1 m3/ha f o r c e d a r , and 236.8 m3/ha f o r l a r c h .
C u r r e n t l o g g i n g i n t h e a r e a i s 9 m i l l i o n m 3 / a , o f t h i s number, 7.4 m i l l i o n m3/a i s l o g g e d i n t h e BITPC. The B r a t s k t i m b e r complex i s one of t h e l a r g e s t o f i t s t y p e i n t h e S o v i e t Union, a s i n d i c a t e d by t h e d a t a i n T a b l e 6 . C o n s t r u c t i o n h a s a l s o begun on t h e U s t - I l i m s k t i m b e r complex, which w i l l g r e a t l y i n c r e a s e t h e t i m b e r p r o c e s s i n g c a p a c i t y i n t h e BITPC. Planned c e l l u l o s e p r o d u c t i o n f o r t h i s complex i s e x p e c t e d t o b e 624,000 t / a
.
I n a d d i t i o n t o t h e f o r e s t p r o d u c t s i n d u s t r y , t h e B r a t s k aluminium p l a n t h a s a t t a i n e d a l m o s t f u l l o p e r a t i o n a l c a p a c i t y ; upon c o m p l e t i o n it w i l l b e t h e l a r g e s t of i t s t y p e i n t h e S o v i e t Union.
T a b l e 6. P r o d u c t i o n d a t a f o r B r a t s k t i m b e r complex, 1975.
Source: [15]
Cord cellulose 2 0 0 , 0 0 0 t / a
Cardboard 245,000 t / a
Bleached cellulose 250,000 t / a
Viscose cellulose 200,000 t / a
Fiber board 100,000 t / a
Sawn timber 375,000 rn3/a
Nutrient yeast 200,000 m3/a
Figure 3. Location of industrial production in BITPC as of January 1 , 1975.
(Sec nr:xt page for key .) Sourc:~: 112, pp. 57-58]
U s t - I l i m s k ; B a d a r m a ; E d u c h a n k a ; D a l i n i j ; K e d r o v i j ; T u b a ; S e d a n o v o ; E r s h o v o ; R u d n o g o r s k ; T u r m a ; B r a t s k ; Kezhem;
V i d i m ;
Z a t o p l y aemay a ; S h e s t a k o v o ; Z h e l e z n o g o r s k ; T a r m a ;
N a r a t a j ;
C h i s t a y a P o l y a n a ; O z e r n i j ;
P o k o s n i j ; Ty n k o b i ; K a r a k h u n ; K h a r a n z h i n o ; I l i r ;
p o w e r i n d u s t r y ; f e r r o u s m e t a l l u r g y ; n o n f e r r o u s m e t a l l u r g y ;
@
t i m b e r , w o o d w o r k i n g a n d c e l l u l o s e a n d p a p e r i n d u s t r y ;@
b u i l d i n g m a t e r i a l s i n d u s t r y ;@
f o o d i n d u s t r y ;0
o t h e r i n d u s t r i e s ;-
r a i l w a y s ;= m o t o r r o a d s ;
. . , .
, b o u n d a r i e s o f t e r r i t o r i a l - p r o d u c t i o n c o m p l e x :
I n d u s t r i a l P r o d u c t i o n i n 1 9 7 4
0
o v e r 1 x l o 9 R o u b l e s ;0
f r o m 5 0 - 1 0 0 m i l l i o n R o u b l e s ;0
f r o m 5-15 m i l l i o n R o u b l e s ;0
l e s s t h a n 5 m i l l i o n R o u b l e s .M i n e r a l r e s o u r c e s a r e a b u n d a n t i n t h e r e g i o n . The Korshun- ovsky i r o n works p r o d u c e s 6 . 5 m i l l i o n t / a o f i r o n o r e c o n c e n t r a t e . A d d i t i o n a l i r o n o r e d e p o s i t s h a v e b e e n d i s c o v e r e d n e a r R u d n o r s k , and p l a n s a r e b e i n g d e v e l o p e d t o u t i l i z e t h i s d e p o s i t . The Region a l s o c o n t a i n s c o a l f i e l d s , e x t e n s i v e s a l t d e p o s i t s , and q u a r t z s a n d s . The BITPC a l s o s e r v e s a s a b a s e f o r f u r t h e r m i n e r a l e x p l o - r a t i o n .
A l l o f t h e i n d u s t r i a l e n t e r p r i s e s and t h e s e t t l e m e n t s f o r t h e w o r k e r s w e r e c o n s t r u c t e d by o n e o r g a n i z a t i o n , B r a t s k g e s s t r o i . The c u r r e n t volume o f c o n s t r u c t i o n c a p a c i t y i s 400 t o 450 m i l l i o n R o u b l e s p e r y e a r .
I t c a n b e s e e n from t h i s i n t r o d u c t o r y m a t e r i a l t h a t t h e BITPC i s c l e a r l y c o n s i d e r e d a n a t i o n a l t a s k of t h e USSR i n p r o v i d i n g b a s e s f o r t h e d e v e l o p m e n t of S i b e r i a . The r e m a i n i n g s e c t i o n s o f t h i s p a p e r d e a l w i t h t h e TPC a p p r o a c h i n g e n e r a l , and t h e d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s i n v o l v e d i n t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e BITPC.
The TPC A p p r o a c h
B r a t s k - I l i m s k p r o v i d e s a good i l l u s t r a t i o n o f t h e e v o l u t i o n o f a r e l a t i v e l y new e l e m e n t i n t h e USSR economy--the TPC. A t t h e o u t s e t , B r a t s k - I l i m s k was s i m p l y a m a s s i v e p r o j e c t f o r t h e con- s t r u c t i o n o f a h y d r o e l e c t r i c power s y s t e m a n d i n d u s t r i a l c o m p l e x e s . N o r m a l l y , t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f e a c h m a j o r s e g m e n t o f B r a t s k - I l i m s k would h a v e b e e n c a r r i e d o u t by t h e r e s p e c t i v e M i n i s t r y f o r t h a t i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r . Very e a r l y i n t h e B r a t s k - I l i m s k ' s h i s t o r y , h o w e v e r , t h e d e c i s i o n was t a k e n t o a s s i g n r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r a l l c o n s t r u c t i o n t o a s i n g l e a g e n c y : B r a t s k g e s s t r o i . T h i s may b e v i e w e d a s t h e s t a r t o f t h e c o n c e p t o f i n t e g r a t i n g t h e f u l l r a n g e of a c t i v i t i e s t h a t m u s t b e u n d e r t a k e n f o r t h e p l a n n i n g a n d d e v e l - opment o f a new complex.
A c c o r d i n g t o Aganbegyan [ I ] , a TPC i s a t y p i c a l t e r r i t o r i a l p r o d u c t i o n f o r m a t i o n o f t h e USSR n a t i o n a l economy a t i t s p r e s e n t s t a g e . I t i s a n e x p r e s s i o n o f p r e s e n t p e r s p e c t i v e s f o r t h e g o a l o r i e n t e d a n d c o n c e n t r a t e d d e v e l o p m e n t o f s p e c i a l t e r r i t o r i a l u n i t s . A TPC c a n b e d e f i n e d a s a s e p a r a t e o b j e c t f o r g o a l o r i e n t e d p r o - gramming a n d p l a n n i n g i n t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f a t e r r i t o r i a l u n i t a s a w h o l e . I t i s a l s o a s e p a r a t e o b j e c t f o r c o o r d i n a t i n g t h e a c t i v - i t i e s o f d i f f e r e n t management b o d i e s a n d o r g a n i z a t i o n s . The TPC i s n o t a n a d m i n i s t r a t i v e t e r r i t o r i a l s y s t e m o f t h e USSR. I t h o l d s a m i d d l e p o s i t i o n i n t h e h i e r a r c h y o f t e r r i t o r i a l a n d n a t i o n a l e c o n o m i c o b j e c t s o f p l a n n i n g a n d management. The TPC c a n b e c o n s i d e r e d a b a s i c means f o r p r o v i d i n g s t r u c t u r a l - o r g a n i z a t i o n a l s o l u t i o n s t o c o o r d i n a t i o n p r o b l e m s i n v o l v i n g t h e n a t i o n a l economy, i n d u s t r y , and r e g i o n s a t t h e medium l e v e l o f t h e p l a n n i n g a n d management s y s t e m .
C u r r e n t l y , a b o u t 1 0 0 TPCs a r e o p e r a t i n g o r a r e b e i n g d e v e l - o p e d i n t h e USSR. Among t h e i m p o r t a n t TPCs i n S i b e r i a a r e B r a t s k - I l i m s k , t h e S a y a n , a n d t h e TPCs a l o n g t h e Baikal-Amur R a i l w a y
(BAM). The e x p e r i e n c e i n t h e f o r m a t i o n o f t h e BITPC showed t h a t t h e f o r m a t i o n o f a TPC i s b a s e d m a i n l y o n two f a c t o r s :
-
The e x i s t e n c e o f l a r g e , a c c e s s i b l e a n d h i g h q u a l i t yn a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s i n a g i v e n t e r r i t o r y w h i c h a r e i m p o r t a n t f o r t h e d e v e l o p m e n t of t h e USSR a n d t h e c o u n t r i e s b e l o n g - i n g t o t h e C o u n c i l f o r M u t u a l A s s i s t a n c e (CMEA), f o r e x p o r t , a n d f o r t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f a l a r g e e c o n o m i c r e g i o n w i t h i n t h e USSR. T h e s e i n c l u d e e n e r g y s o u r c e s , m i n e r a l s , f o r e s t s , w a t e r r e s o u r c e s , a n d f e r t i l e s o i l .
-
A c o n s i d e r a b l e n a t i o n a l e c o n o m i c p o t e n t i a l f o r t h e s i m u l - t a n e o u s a n d c o n c e n t r a t e d u s e o f t h e n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s a f t h e g i v e n t e r r i t o r y , f o r t h e p r o v i s i o n o f t h e n e c e s s a r y m a t e r i a l a n d l a b o r r e s o u r c e s ( i n c l u d i n g t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ) , a n d f o r t h e f o r m a t i o n o f t h e s o c i a l i n f r a s t r u c t u r e i n t h e t e r r i t o r y .The f i r s t f a c t o r i s d e c i s i v e f o r d e t e r m i n i n g w h e t h e r a g i v e n t e r r i t o r y w i l l become a TPC. I t a l s o d e t e r m i n e s t h e s p e c i a l i z a - t i o n o f t h e TPC w i t h i n t h e p r o d u c t i o n s p e c i a l i z a t i o n framework
of t h e USSR. The s e c o n d f a c t o r i s t h e main p r e r e q u i s i t e f o r a t e r r i t o r y t o b e d e v e l o p e d i n t h e form of a TPC. The TPC i s n o t t h e normal e v o l u t i o n of a t e r r i t o r y b u t a g o a l o r i e n t e d a p p r o a c h . I t i s a c o n c e n t r a t e d , c o o r d i n a t e d complex d e v e l o p m e n t of a t e r r i - t o r i a l u n i t i n v o l v i n g t h e means and e f f o r t s o f t h e e n t i r e c o u n t r y , o t h e r r e g i o n s , and even f o r e i g n c o u n t r i e s . The n a t i o n a l economic p o t e n t i a l a n d t h e n a t i o n a l i m p o r t a n c e of t h e n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s d e t e r m i n e t h e development s e q u e n c e o f t h e TPC and t h e p o s s i b l e t i m e h o r i z o n s and a c t i v i t i e s o f i t s f o r m a t i o n .
F i g u r e 4 shows t h e p o s i t i o n of t h e BITPC i n t h e r e g i o n a l s t r u c t u r e of t h e n a t i o n a l economy of t h e USSR. The USSR h a s t h r e e economic z o n e s : t h e European Zone, S i b e r i a and t h e F a r E a s t , and
The East Siberian Economic Region The Angara-Yenisei Region
Thc lrkutrk O b L t
BRATSK- ILIMSK-TPC
Rnyona Brrtsk. Us1 - Ilimsk.
Shelcsnogorrk Towns and industrial nodes:
h t r k , U r t - Ilimrk , Shclcsnogorrk National rpcializcd production of:
- clcctric energy - aluminium - t i m b a - pulp - c o n ore - c u d b o u d
Lrkutsk - Chercmkhovo TPC Tulun - Sima TPC Taishct - Chvnski TPC Urt'Kut - North &ikd TPC
(part of BA Railway) Mar- - Bodaibo TPC The Siberian and Far East Economic Zone
Figure 4. T h r BITPC in t h r regional structure: of thv national vconorny of thc 1ISSR.
M i d d l e A s i a . F o r p l a n n i n g p u r p o s e s t h e USSR i s d i v i d e d i n t o 1 9 economic r e g i o n s . The BITPC b e l o n g s t o t h e s u b u n i t A n g a r a - Y e n i s e i Region, which i s sometimes r e f e r r e d t o a s a TPC. The I r k u t s k O b l a s t h a s s i x TPCs, o n e o f which i s t h e BITPC. T h i s , i n t u r n , i s s u b d i v i d e d i n t o t h r e e i n d u s t r i a l n o d e s , which a r e development c e n t e r s o f t h e TPCs, n o t o n l y f o r i n d u s t r i e s b u t a l s o f o r s e t t l e - m e n t s , a g r i c u l t u r e , and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n . (UsuaLly t h e y a r e a l s o t r a n s p o r t a t i o n n o d e s . )
The l i n k s between t h e i n d u s t r i e s and t h e i n d u s t r i a l nodes o f t h e BITPC a r e m a i n l y t h e power s u p p l y (HEPS--aluminium p l a n t , i r o n o r e d r e s s i n g , t i m b e r a n d c e l l u l o s e p r o d u c t i o n , and o t h e r s ) and t h e r a i l w a y and r o a d s y s t e m .
F i g u r e 5 g i v e s a s i m p l i f i e d p i c t u r e o f t h e p l a n n i n g and management of t h e BITPC. S i n c e a TPC h a s a s p e c i a l p l a c e i n t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e n a t i o n a l economy o f t h e USSR, p l a n n i n g and management s t a r t a t t h e t o p ; e . g . t h e r e was a s p e c i a l d e c i s i o n of t h e USSR C o u n c i l o f M i n i s t e r s on t h e development o f i n d u s t r i e s and towns of t h e BITPC. The BITPC i s s p e c i f i c a l l y s t r e s s e d i n t h e p l a n s of t h e S t a t e P l a n n i n g Committee of t h e S o v i e t C o u n c i l of M i n i s t e r s (GOSPLAN) and t h e M i n i s t r i e s . Programming a n d p l a n - n i n g t h e BITPC t a k e s p l a c e f i r s t on t h e l e v e l o f GOSPLAN a n d t h e GOSPLAN of t h e R u s s i a n F e d e r a t i o n (RSFSR) w i t h t h e h e l p of t h e i r i n s t i t u t e s . ( S e e , f o r example, t h e m a s t e r scheme o f t h e t e r r i - t o r i a l development o f p r o d u c t i v e f o r c e s of t h e USSR from t h e C o u n c i l f o r t h e S t u d y o f P r o d u c t i o n F o r c e s (SOPS) a n d t h e C e n t r a l Economic R e s e a r c h I n s t i t u t e ( C E R I )
.
The t e r r i t o r i a l a d m i n i s t r a t i v e u n i t , I r k u t s k O b l a s t , i s t h e main t e r r i t o r i a l o r g a n f o r t h e BITPC. A s p e c i a l r o l e i n f o r e c a s t -
i n g , programming, and p l a n n i n g i s p l a y e d by t h e o r g a n s and i n s t i - t u t e s o f t h e USSR Academy o f S c i e n c e s and i n p a r t i c u l a r by t h e i n s t i t u t e s o f i t s S i b e r i a n Branch. T h e i r a c t i v i t i e s a r e d i r e c t e d t o w a r d c r e a t i n g a s c i e n t i f i c b a s e f o r t h e development o f t h e BITPC and t h e e v a l u a t i o n o f f e a s i b l e v a r i a n t s t h r o u g h e x p e r t o p i n i o n s . M i n i s t r i e s , GOSSTROI, d e s i g n i n s t i t u t e s , and o t h e r management b o d i e s t a k e p a r t d i r e c t l y i n t h e development o f t h e o b j e c t s w i t h i n t h e TPC i n t h e p l a n n i n g and management p r o c e s s . A l t h o u g h t h e TPC i s n o t a n a d m i n i s t r a t i v e u n i t a s a whole, some e x e c u t i v e b o d i e s e x i s t w i t h i n i t , m a i n l y t h e E x e c u t i v e Committees of t h e r a y o n * and towns. I n t h e s p e c i a l c a s e o f t h e BITPC, we f i n d a l s o t h e B r a t s k g e s s t r o i and t h e A n g a r a s t r o i c o n s t r u c t i o n o r g a n i z a t i o n s . The development o f t h e BITPC i s c l o s e l y c o n n e c t e d w i t h t h e a c t i v i t i e s o f B r a t s k g e s s t r o i , b e c a u s e t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n i s i n c h a r g e o f a l l c o n s t r u c t i o n a c t i v i t i e s i n t h e BITPC, e x c e p t f o r r a i l w a y s , f o r which A n g a r a s t r o i i s r e s p o n s i b l e . New f o r m s of management o f a TPC a r e b e i n g d i s c u s s e d i n t h e USSR. The g o a l i s t o make management more complex and e f f e c t i v e , p o s s i b l y by c r e a t i n g a s p e c i a l body f o r p l a n n i n g and c o o r d i n a t i n g t h e a c t i v i t i e s r e l a t e d t o t h e TPC.
*Rayon may b e d e f i n e d a s a s m a l l d i s t r i c t .
Council of Ministers USSR
I2
GOSPLAN n SOPS U0
Council of Ministers RSFSR GOSPLAN RSFSR0 I? 0 0 n
Ministries USSR Academy of Sciences USSR State Committee I'or Scicnce and Tectmology KEPS GOSSTROl Siberian Branch of the USSR Academy of Sciences Design institutes and other. Town Executive Committees institutes ot Ministries and Board of Directors other state bodies. SOPS - Council for Study of Production Forccs 17 planning ar~d managlnerlt KEPS - Committee of Production Forces and Natural Resources (7, forecasting, programming. designing CERl - Central Economic Rcsrarch Institute4-
administration direction Figure 5. The main lines of planning and management of the BITPC. (Simplified, many information feedbacks not shown.)The BITPC, a s a p a r t o f t h e I r k u t s k O b l a s t , p l a y e d a l a r g e p a r t i n t h e r a p i d d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h i s O b l a s t . T a b l e 7 shows t h e g r o w t h r a t e o f i n d u s t r i a l d e v e l o p m e n t i n t h e I r k u t s k O b l a s t f o r t h e p e r i o d 1960-1975. The g r o w t h r a t e o f t h e i n d u s t r i a l p r o d u c - t i o n i n e a c h r e g i o n o f t h e O b l a s t i s shown i n T a b l e 8 .
T a b l e 7 . Development i n t h e I r k u t s k O b l a s t , 1960-1975.
S o u r c e : [ 2 4 ]
As c a n b e s e e n from T a b l e s 7 a n d 8 , r a p i d i n d u s t r i a l d e v e l o p - ment h a s t a k e n p l a c e i n t h e w h o l e r e g i o n , p a r t i c u l a r l y s i n c e 1965.
The r e l a t i v e g r o w t h o f i n d u s t r i a l p r o d u c t i o n i n t h e O b l a s t f r o m 1965-1972 was a p p r o x i m a t e l y t w i c e t h a t f o r t h e y e a r 1 9 6 5 . I n a d d i t i o n , many o f t h e i n d u s t r i e s i n t h e Mid-Angara R e g i o n a r e becoming more d e p e n d e n t o n e n e r g y and r e s o u r c e i n d u s t r i e s s u c h a s e l e c t r i c power g e n e r a t i o n , t i m b e r a n d wood p r o c e s s i n g , a n d i r o n a n d n o n f e r r o u s m e t a l s ( T a b l e 9 ) .
INDUSTRY
C e l l u l o s e C a r d b o a r d c e m e n t
B r a t s k P o p u l a t i o n I r k u t s k
A n g a r a s k
-
-
1.0 4 3 , 0 0 0 3 6 6 , 0 0 0 1 3 5 , 0 0 0
-
- 1.1
1.0 1.0 1 . 3 1 5 5 , 0 0 0 4 5 1 , 0 0 0 2 0 3 , 0 0 0
1 . 7 1 . 2 1 . 3 1 9 5 , 0 0 0 5 1 9 , 0 0 0 2 3 1 , 0 0 0
T a b l e 8. Growth r a t e o f p r o d u c t i o n i n e a c h r e g i o n o f t h e I r k u t s k O b l a s t , 1940-1 972.
S o u r c e : [21]
T a b l e 9 . S t r u c t u r e o f i n d u s t r y i n t h e Mid-Angara R e g i o n , 1 9 7 2 . Source: [ 2 1 , p. 911
I n c r e a s e of T o t a l P r o d u c t s ( % )
1965-1972 400 184 198 216 Region
Mid-Angara Irkutsk-Chemkhovs R e s t of O b l a s t TOTAL
Rate of P r o d u c t i o n Amount ( % )
1940 1965 1972
0.8 1 4 . 1 2 6 . 1
63.2 65.4 55.2
3 6 . 0 20.5 18.7
100.0 100.0 100.0
I n v e s t m e n t ( % I 36.8 29.6 27.9 3.4 1 . 4 0.9 100.0 Department of I n d u s t r y
E l e c t r i c power
Timber and wood p r o c e s s i n g I r o n and n o n f e r r o u s m e t a l s C o n s t r u c t i o n
Machinery
Food and l i g h t i n d u s t r i e s TOTAL
Amount of P r o d u c t i o n
( % )
25.6 28.8 30.7 7.2 3.9 3.8 100.0
The t y p i c a l s t r u c t u r e o f i n d u s t r y i n t h e Mid-Angara Region h a s been c o n n e c t e d w i t h t h e r e g i o n a l s p e c i a l i z a t i o n o f t h e s p e - c i f i c n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s i n S i b e r i a from t h e p o i n t o f view o f t h e n a t i o n a l economy. I n 1975, 5% of t h e e l e c t r i c power, 8 % of t i m b e r ,
1 2 % o f c e l l u l o s e , 4 % of c o a l , and 7 % of p a p e r and c a r d b o a r d were produced i n I r k u t s k O b l a s t a r e a from t h e t o t a l p r o d u c t i o n o f t h e s e goods produced i n t h e USSR.
D e c i s i o n s on t h e BITPC Development, T h e i r A l t e r n a t i v e s , and S e l e c t i o n C r i t e r i a
M e t h o d o l o g i c a l Remarks
A method f o r a n a l y z i n g t h e c o n c e p t s and t h e d e v e l o p m e n t of t h e BITPC i s t o s t u d y t h e d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s e s t h a t l e d t o t h e f o r m u l a t i o n o f b a s i c s t r a t e g i e s , t o t h e f o r m a t i o n o f t h e complex, and t o t h e v a r i o u s a c t i v i t i e s t h a t c h a r a c t e r i z e i t s d e v e l o p m e n t . Such a s t u d y s h o u l d n o t b e l i m i t e d t o t h e a c t u a l d e c i s i o n s and a c t i v i t i e s t h a t o c c u r r e d i n t h e BITPC d e v e l o p m e n t . The n a t u r e a n d complex c h a r a c t e r of t h e s e d e c i s i o n s and a c t i v i t i e s c a n b e u n d e r s t o o d o n l y i f s e e n i n t h e p e r s p e c t i v e o f t h e i r a l t e r n a t i v e s , o b j e c t i v e s , and u n d e r l y i n g c o n c e p t s .
More s p e c i f i c a l l y , a n a n a l y s i s of t h e BITPC d e c i s i o n p r o - c e s s e s s h o u l d s e r v e s e v e r a l r e l a t e d p u r p o s e s :
-
T o d e s c r i b e t h e a c t u a l d e c i s i o n s a n d t h e r e s u l t i n g a c t i v i t i e s , f o c u s s e d on t h e main a s p e c t s o f t h e d e v e l o p - ment ( e n e r g y s u p p l y s y s t e m ( E S S ) , p r o d u c t i o n s e c t o r s ,and i n f r a s t r u c t u r e )
.
T h i s s h o u l d p r o v i d e background i n f o r m a t i o n on how t h e BITPC was a c t u a l l y formed.-
T o i n c r e a s e a n u n d e r s t a n d i n g of t h e n a t u r e of t h e B I T P C d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s e s by a n a l y z i n g p o s s i b l e development and d e c i s i o n a l t e r n a t i v e s . T h i s s h o u l d a i d i n a n under- s t a n d i n g of what c o u l d h a v e been d o n e i n t h e BITPC development.-
T o a s s e s s d e c i s i o n m a k i n g in t h e B I T P C i n t e r m s of i t s o b j e c t i v e s and c o n c e p t s . T h i s s h o u l d a i d i n a n u n d e r - s t a n d i n g of why d e c i s i o n s on t h e BITPC d e v e l o p m e n t were c h o s e n .The a n a l y s i s began by mapping t h e a c t u a l a c t i v i t i e s i n t h e BITPC f o r m a t i o n , e . g . , c o n s t r u c t i o n of r o a d s , dams, and i n d u s t r i a l p l a n t s . The n e x t s t a g e i n v o l v e s t h e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f t h e d e c i s i o n p o i n t s t h a t i n i t i a t e d t h e s e a c t i v i t i e s , s u c h a s a d e c r e e by t h e C o u n c i l o f M i n i s t e r s . T h e s e a r e t h e e a s y s t e p s o f t h e a n a l y s i s . The n e x t s t e p was t o i d e n t i f y a l t e r n a t i v e s , by which i s meant e i t h e r of t h e f o l l o w i n g :
