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Modelling the drivers of a widespread shift to sustainable diets

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Modelling the drivers of a widespread shift to sustainable diets

Sibel Eker 1 , Gerhard Reese 2 , Michael Obersteiner 1

1

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

2

University of Koblenz-Landau

24 October 2019

World Resources Forum, Geneva eker@iiasa.ac.at

@sibel_eker_

(2)

Lifestyle

change

(3)

Sustainable diets

Source: Springmann et al. (2018) Nature

Impacts of reductions in food loss and waste, technological change, and dietary changes on

global environmental pressures in 2050

(4)

Modelling behavioral drivers

Behavior (Shift to a vegetarian

diet) Behavioral

Intention

Perceived Behavioral Control (Self-efficacy)

Subjective Norm

Attitude

+ + +

+ +

Perceived Climate

Risk

Climate Events

-

+ +

Descriptive Social Norm

+ +

-

Willingness to change

+

Social transmission

FeliX Model

Perceived Health Risk

+

Average red meat consumption

Source: Eker S, Reese G, Obersteiner M.

(2019) Nature Sustainability.

(5)

Modelling behavioral drivers

(6)

Which behavioural factors cause the highest sensitivity?

Which

behavioural factors

cause the highest

sensitivity?

(7)

Conclusions

The groups who already have a high

tendency, e.g. young and female, are the low- hanging fruits.

Social norms and self-efficacy (identity) are the most prominent drivers, not the climate or health risk.

The modelling framework is generalizable

and transferrable.

(8)

Way forward

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