NOT FOR QUOTATION WITHOUT PERMISSION OF THE AUTHORS
SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF NEW INFORIbYTION
TECHNOLOGY
John Page
Fritz Lechleuthner Loretta Hervey
June 1984 WP-84-44
A survey of c u r r e n t thinking on impacts, issues, and options in support of
possible research activities
Working m e r s a r e interim reports on work of t h e International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and have received only limited review. Views or opinions expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of the Institute or of i t s National Member Organizations.
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
FORWARD
John Page, Fritz Lechleuthner, a n d Loretta H e w e y have s e t o u t t o
"survey c u r r e n t thinking on impacts, issues, and options i n support of possible r e s e a r c h activities". They have done t h a t a n d more. S c i o - Economic hnplicatwns of N e w I n f o r m a t i o n Technology provides n o t only a n exploration of t h e relevant l i t e r a t u r e and some guidelines for further.
m o r e detailed research. b u t also some stimulating insights i n t o a host of issues raised by t h e c o m m u n i c a t i o n s revolution.
This Working P a p e r h a s a wide compass both in t e r m s of coverage-- from industrial opportunities t o social challenges-and of t r e a t m e n t - from technical t o philosophical. I t s discussion of several issues a r e pres- cient, indeed. (See, for example, Section 111
-
I., particularly t h e passage on "Reduced Working Hours a n d Job-Sharing", a m a t t e r c u r r e n t l y a t t h e c o r e of industrial conflict in m a n y countries of Western Europe.)To those like myself whose backgrounds have been influenced m o r e by t h e pursuit of t h e liberal a r t s t h a n quantitative analysis, t h e sections addressing Education a n d Learning (111
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4.) a n d Culture a n d Values (111 - 5.) pose some troubling questions: To what extent i s "information"displacing "howledge" a s a goal in education? To what e x t e n t is t h e demand for "computer literacy" crowding out the need for continuing or expanding rnore traditional ( m o r e relevant?) forms of literacy? In t h e
"Information Society" what happens t o t h e historians, t h e philosophers, t h e writers. a n d t h e poets? In s h o r t , will t h e Information Society be strong on What, b u t weak on Why a n d Whither?
Whether or n o t some of t h e issues raised in Socio-Economic Implica- tions of New knforrnatinn Technology a r e delved into f u r t h e r a t IIASA or elsewhere, this paper, on i t s own, is a valuable contribution t o t h e litera- t u r e and will be r e a d with profit by anyone concerned about t h e irnplica- tions of t h e communications revolution.
Chester L. Cooper Special Advisor to t h e Director
Laxenburg, Austria J u n e 1984
PREFACE
During t h e early m o n t h s of 1983 a continuing program of policy- oriented conferences (The International Forum) was initiated a t IIASA.
One possibility for s u c h a Forum was some aspect of t h e social and economic impacts of information technology; in order t o provide a focus for defining t h e scope a n d c o n t e n t of a possible IIASA activity in this a r e a , i t was decided t o c a r r y out a brief preliminary reconnaisance t o identify suitable topics.
I t soon became a p p a r e n t t h a t the available material m e r i t e d a m o r e in-depth review of t h e socio-economic issues arising in t h e emerging information society and of t h e corresponding policies u n d e r discussion, in o r d e r t o establish t h e directions in which IIASA m i g h t move. However, staff and program changes a t IIASA r e n d e r e d i t impossible t o complete a formal feasibility study a t t h e Institute. Instead, t h e authors-- encouraged by t h e i n t e r e s t of IIASA m a n a g e m e n t in t h e results of t h e survey--continued on t h e i r own t o review the material collected and t o s t r u c t u r e t h e findings a b o u t t h e issues on hand for f u r t h e r action. In t h e authors' view, t h e evidence collected a n d analyzed in t h i s paper clearly justifies t h e relevance for IIASA of f u r t h e r work i n t h i s field.
A few words a b o u t t h e background of the a u t h o r s of this paper will indicate t h e i r motivation for t h e study.
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John Page: a f t e r a c a r e e r in operational r e s e a r c h , science pol- icy, and administration, h e was appointed director of scientific information a n d education in what is now t h e European Space Agency, from which he retired in 1973; h e served IIASA in several consultative capacities, including membership in t h e earlier Computer Science and Informatics Groups and m o r erecently a s a researcher in t h e Information Technology Task of the Management and Technology Area.
- H z L e c h l e u t h n s r : after fifteen years of management consult- ing with McKinsey and Company, Inc., he was t h e initial manager of t h e IIASA International Forum Program a n d in the process became personally interested in conducting research on t h e information society.
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L o r e t t a H e r v e y : after completing an interdisciplinary program in public health and sociolbgy a t Columbia University, she served as a research assistant in an early IIASA project on Plan- ning and Management of Regional Energy/Environment Sys- tems and later a s a member of IIASA's Publication Department.The authors a r e indebted t o Prof. Tibor Vasko for his kind permission to include his draft proposal for a study on the "Economic and Social Impacts of Modern Electronic Technology" as an appendix t o this paper.
It
is provided here because i t contributes an additional perspective on c u r r e n t thinking a t IIASA.CONTENTS
I. Introduction 1
- The "Information Society" of the Future 2
-
Today's Information Society 4-
IIASA Activities in t h e Field of Information Technology 4-
The Need for Research 6- The Role of t h e P r e s e n t Survey 8
11. Information Technology. Applications and Society - The Technologies
- The Applications
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Society and Technology111. Impacts and Issues: Seven Areas of Concern 1. Work and Employment
2. Business a n d Management
3. Developing Countries: Challenges and Opportunities 4. Education a n d Learning
5. Culture a n d Values
6. International Regulation for Social Benefit 7. The Economic Value of Information
IV. Summary of Issues: Directions for Future Research 40
References 45
Appendix I: Bibiliography of IIASA Research in t h e Field of
Information Technology 49
Appendix 11: "Electronic a n d Social Impacts of Modern Electronic
Technology" by Tibor Vasko 55
SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF NEX ITWORMATION TECHNOLOGY
John Page, Fritz Lechleuthner and Loretta Hervey
The impact of t h e c u r r e n t diffusion of information technologies has been compared t o t h e societal transformation accompanying t h e indus- t r i a l revolution. In t h e view of observers like Daniel Bell, however, a c r u - cial difference lies i n m a n ' s c u r r e n t awareness t h a t s u c h a transforma- tion is occurring, in his a t t e m p t s t o predict its long- and s h o r t - t e r m consequences, and in t h e formulation of national policy responses.
I t is a r a r e m o m e n t i n cultural history when we can self- consciously witness a large-scale social transformation. Few persons realized, when t h e industrial revolution was beginning, t h e impact of what was taking place
...
Today with o u r g r e a t e r sensitivity t o social consequences and t h e future...
we a r e m o r e a l e r t to t h e possible imports of t h i s technological and social change; and this is all to t h e good, for t o t h e extent t o which we a r e t h a t sensitive, we can t r y [to] e s t i m a t e the consequences a n d decide which policies we should choose, consonant with t h e values we have, in order to shape, accept, or even r e j e c t t h e alternative f u t u r e s t h a t a r e available to us (Bell 1960).The "Information Society" of the Future
The complex of social and economic changes resulting from widespread application of new information technologies is often referred t o a s t h e "Information Society". This phrase, however, is just one way of labeling t h e series of rapidly developing economic and social changes which have emerged in varying degrees in both market-economy a n d socialist countries since t h e 1950s. Other labels which have been coined include "the post industrial society" and t h e "third wave". I t seems rea- sonable t o suggest t h a t all these phrases refer t o t h e s a m e series of phenomena, starting perhaps from different points of e n t r y , a n d emphasizing one a s p e c t over others. The "information society" label focuses a t t e n t i o n on what many believe to be a root cause of t h e phenomena we observe: t h e growth of electronics, computers a n d telecommunications, in a word, t h e microelectronics revolution.
If we were mainly concerned with t h e economic phenomena, we might i n t e r p r e t t h e s a m e phenomena in t e r m s of cycles of innovation or
"long waves". If we were particularly i n t e r e s t e d in t h e changing life- styles of t h e "third wave", we would take t h e microelectronics revolution a s given, a n d discuss t h e new freedom it g r a n t e d from t h e total work syn- chronization of industrial civilization. In this paper, t h e chosen point of e n t r y is t h e effects of new information technology, b u t a s will become clear when we discuss issues and impacts, t h e choice of e n t r y does not s e e m to determine t h e shape of t h e landscape.
There is a large and growing volume of l i t e r a t u r e on t h e information society. Futurologists. social scientists, a n d technologists have focused on the forms a completely computerized society could take by t h e early twenly-first century. They have looked a s well a t short,er-term issues associated with t h e transition to this future--including employment, re- s t r u c t u r i n g of t h e educational system, a n d t h e m a i n t e n a n c e of national economic competitiveness. The scale of analysis ranges from the global t o t.he individual enterprise, a n d methods a r e as varied a s t r e n d extrapo- lation, c a s e studies, anci econometric analysis. The diversity of approaches reflects t h e pervasiveness and diversity of the new informa- Lion t.echnologies thernselves.
V k w s of the future. Masuda (1980) h a s t r a c e d t h e evolution of infor- mation technologies from post-World War 11 applications in national defense a n d s p a c e exploration programs t o business and public service applications i n t h e 1960s a n d 1970s, and finally t o increasing use of per- sonal c o m p u t e r s hooked u p to computer networks in the 1980s and beyond. Visions of t h e final product of this evolution--a completely com- puterized society--vary from the utopian to t h e deeply pessimistic.
Masuda looks forward t o a n age of "computopia" beginning in t h e early twenty-first century. In his "universal society of plenty", informa- tion and knowledge replace goods and services a s primary societal pro- ducts. Masuda predicts t h a t t h e c e n t e r of production will shift from t h e factory t o t h e "global information utilityv--a computer-based public i n f r a s t r u c t u r e consisting of information networks and d a t a banks, to which all citizens will have access. Freed from t h e need t o labor for sub- sistence. m a n will have time for leisure, self-improvement and commun- ity activities; with the aid of t h e global information utility, education will be greatly expanded, accessible to all, without income, t i m e and place restrictions.
Although Masuda points t o t h e danger t h a t computerized manage- m e n t systems a n d centralized d a t a banks kould become powerful instru- m e n t s of social control, h e is optimistic t h a t changes i n h u m a n values will c u r b this tendency. He believes t h a t a s information values replace material values, emphasis will be laid on t h e expansion of individual cog- nitive capabilities r a t h e r t h a n material consumpt,ion, a n d competition will be replaced by cooperation.
In c o n t r a s t , analysts s u c h as Nora and Minc (1980) survey the f u t u r e computerized society with less confidence. They agree that i t will be highly productive a n d m u c h less labor-intensive, b u t a r e unsure if society can adjust to t h e new work situation without conflict. They ask what will happen when work is no longer a c e n t r a l value underlying social organization, and whether the problem of distributing the tasks and r ~ w n r d s of t.he remaining work will produce confrontation between competing groups. They wonder a s well if the varying ability of individu- als t o adjust t o "processed" computerized language could exacerbate
social inequality. The title of the final chapter of Nora a n d Minc's book The C o m p u t e r i z a t i o n o f S b c i e t y , "Will a Computerized Society Be a Society of Cultural Conflicts?", reflects these questions.
S o r t e r - t e r m p e r s p e c t i v e s . Despite their differing views, both Mzsuda and Nora and Minc emphasize t h e element of choice i n the forrn t h a t t h e computerized information society will take. Japan's 1972 "Plan for t h e Information Society" is designed to move t h e nation toward Masuda's "computopia" by testing some of its components (including community communications information systems, regional r e m o t e con- trol medical systems, computer-oriented education, and regional pollu- tion prevention systems) (Masuda 1980). Nora and Minc's a s s e s s m e n t of t h e impacts of information technology is explicitly p r e s e n t e d a s a spur t o Government decision-makers to devise policies t o avoid potentially negative socio-economic consequences.
Thus forward-looking perspectives on t h e information society should not, i n o u r view, be regarded a s deterministic models of t h e f u t u r e . Pol- icy issues now confronting decision makers a r e not c o n c e r n e d with how t o g e t from a known present t o a (more or less) defined f u t u r e state.
Instead we suggest t h a t t h e shorter-term impacts a n d issues (to be reviewed in Section 111) should be considered in the light of a transition towards a continuously evolving information society. Still, not all scenarios for the f u t u r e a r e equally probable, and t h e longer t e r m scenarios already discussed will provide guidelines for t h e analysis of s h o r t e r - t e r m issues a n d policies, which in Daniel Bell's words, allow u s to
"shape, accept, o r even reject the alternative f u t u r e s available to us"
(Bell 1980).
Today's Information Society
Whether or n o t "computopia" is c a s t as a faraway vision o r a realiz- able future, t h e r e is a body of research describing, in quantitative t e r m s , what may be regarded a s t h e existing information society. P a r k e r (1976) provided t h e key paper in this area, as h e examined t r e n d s in t h e distri- bution of t h e US labor force, in the composition of t h e national income, a n d in personal consumption. The best-known section of his analysis
concerns changes in labor force composition. Following Porat's s c h e m e (1974), Parker adds a forth category t o t h e traditional division of employ- m e n t into the agriculture, industrial, and service sectors--namely t h e
"information sector", consisting of all employees in t h e original t h r e e sectors whose main activity is associated with information processing.
This new aggregation showed t h a t in t h e mid-70s, t h e predominance of t h e service sector was declining; in t u r n , the information s e c t o r was rapidly taking over a s t h e m a i n constituent of employment. These find- ings were relatively insensitive t o t h e use of conservative o r liberal assumptions in t h e classification of occupations.
The conclusion t h a t p e r h a p s more t h a n half t h e total labor force in the United States is employed in t h e information sector h a s since been confirmed and extended by o t h e r authors--for example, P o r a t a n d Rubin (1977) and Rubin a n d Sapp (1981). In their analyses it is i m p o r t a n t to distinguish between the "information sector" and t h e "service sector".
Previous work clearly d e m o n s t r a t e d simultaneous growth in t h e service sector and decline in t h e agricultural sector and, l a t e r , in t h e industrial sector. When t h e information sector was separated o u t a s a new com- ponent, i t became clear t h a t t h e service sector had in f a c t begun t o decline as a r e s u l t of t h e r e p l a c e h e n t of personal services by information-related services.
These trends i n labor distribution a r e paralleled by similar t r e n d s in distribution of US national income and personal consumption. Parker therefore seems justified in concluding t h a t if a society may be charac- terized by its predominant a r e a s of work, economic activity and personal consumption, t h e n indeed we a r e already living in a n information society. The continued rapid growth in the information s e c t o r was evi- denced by Strassmann (1982), in his examination of t h e US m a r k e t for such products as office a u t o m a t i o n equipment and personal computers.
He s t a t e s that in 1981 the t o t a l m a r k e t amounted t o 9,850,000 units, pro- jected to rise to 40,700,000 by 1986.
Parker (1976) points o u t t h a t t h e information society has important qualitative, as well as quantitative characteristics. Machines which sig- nificantly enhance and extend m a n ' s information processing capability could potentially offer new possibilities of economic growth independent O F finite physical and energy resources. But in order for t h e information society to develop in directions favoring human values, s t r u c t u r a l a n d institutional adaptation m a y be required. For this reason implemen ta- tion of efFective policies in t h e next few decades is crucial.
IJASA Activities in the field of Information Technology
Earlier IIASA work in t h e a r e a of information technology was exe- c u t e d largely within t h e province of t h e "Impact of Information Technol- ogy Task", initiated in 1980 and drawing on previous IIASA studies involv- ing computers a n d management, a n d informatics. Over a period of five years, the "Impact of Information Technology T a s k aimed to identify sig- nificant applications OF information technology, and then to assess their present and future impacts in s u c h areas a s work patterns, demands for education and vocational training, a n d lifestyle. Its ultimate objectives were t o provide input t o t h e process of developing policies to minimize t h e drawbacks and rnaldmize t h e benefits of information technologies.
In practice, only a beginning could be m a d e on the planned work due t o budgetary constraints a n d organizational changes. During the early 1980s studies were carried o u t on six applications of information a n d telecommunication technologies, and preliminary assessments were made of several discrete socio-economic issues.
In t h e applications s p h e r e Rararie, Fic:k and Lee focused on artificial intelligence and on decision support systems as a methodology for asso- ciating computers with t h e solution of management problems. Page undertook work on electronic t e x t transfer and electronic publishing.
from t h e point of view of policies for professional information transfer.
Sebestyen surveyed remote data processing facilities and procedures in several Eastern European countries. In addition, Page discussed t h e potential of broadband satellite communications for scientific: and t.echn- ical exchange. Sebestyen looked a t t h e use of teleconrerencing in an
international environment and, with Maurer a n d Rauch, investigated existing and f u t u r e applications of videotex a s a new information medium.
In r e g a r d to socio-economic issues, t h e original research planning had foreseen in-depth studies as a second phase of t h e overall informa- tion technology project. With available resources, it proved possible t o undertake only preliminary work in t h e selected areas. Merians and Sugiyama provided overviews of general issues, while Vasko focused specifically on telecommunications policy. Cifersky, Costello, and Lee looked a t t h e roles of c o m p u t e r s in organizations. Page undertook stu- dies on applications of information technology t o respond to developing countries' problems. As well, energy a n d resource consumption associ- a t e d with new information technologies were r e s e a r c h e d by Maurer, Sebestyen, and Rauch. Papers were prepared on c e r t a i n employment implications of information technologies by Dell'Mour, Fleissner, and Sint, and by Goldberg. Costello made a contribution in t h e a r e a of train- ing a n d employment policy. Finally, Sebestyen, as well a s Stadler a n d Herzog, dealt with questions of transborder d a t a flows and data protec- tion.
Titles of papers a n d o t h e r contributions describing t h e work out- lined above a r e listed by topic i n Appendix I. I t is t o be hoped t h a t any f u t u r e IIASA activity in t h e a r e a of information technology would build on this substantial body of work.
The Need for Research
The socio-economic impacts of inform.ation technology a r e a subject of c o n c e r n to reseachers, practitioners, and t h e political world itself. In fact, s u c h prominent personalities a s the l a t e President Andropov, President Mitterand, a n d Prime Minister Thatcher have all made key pol- icy s t a t e m e n t s underlining t h e necessity to optimize the application of information technology i.n t h e i r countries. The n e e d to develop effective policies a t t h e industrial and Governmental levels to deal with the issues (and opportunities) of t h e e m e r g e n t information society suggests a con- sequent requirement for analysis and research.. Ever1 a cursory look a t
some issues policy makers face in s u c h a r e a s a s employment and the organization of work, industrial development, education a n d retraining, a n d public i n v e s t m e n t in information technology i n f r a s t r u c t u r e indi- c a t e s a level of complexity making it difficult to identify practical policy options. Indeed, some policy issues a r e c o n c e r n e d with questions of social or cultural values, r a t h e r than m o r e objectively perceived factors.
Apart from t h e complexity of t h e s e m a t t e r s , i t appears t h a t events-- in t h e shape of actual impacts of new information technology--are begin- ning t o move so rapidly that individual ad h o c policies a r e becoming increasingly inadequate for dealing with real situations by t h e t i m e such policies a r e ready for implementation. While r e s e a r c h itself cannot pro- vide automatic solutions, i t seems t h a t a carefully co-ordinated effort in policy-oriented r e s e a r c h , taking into account i m p a c t s a t t h e enterprise, national, and international levels, could provide a m u c h needed back- ground against which practical policies could be devised and imple- m e n t e d by concerned authorities.
The Role of the Present Survey
Following a background discussion of t h e n a t u r e of information technologies in Section 11, c u r r e n t perceptions of short o r medium-term impacts and issues associated with t h e f u t u r e evolution of t h e informa- tion society a r e surveyed in Section 111. A criticism which may not be side-stepped is t h a t t h e "information society" a n d i t s socio-economic implications a r e subjects far too broad t o tackle. Yet a preliminary review of perceived impacts and issues is a task facing every policy- m a k e r a t t e m p t i n g t o frame natiorlal responses t o t h e diffusion of infor- mation technologies. As well, a wide-ranging review of issues may serve t o identify a r e a s where IIASA could c o n t r i b u t e to the policy-making pro- cess, and t,o identify topics on which t h e Institute could undertake origi- nal research. A s u m m a r y of possible topics is provided in Section IV of this report.
11.
INFllRW\'IlON TECHNOLOGY, APPLICATIONS AND SOCIETY
The potential t h r e a t s and benefits i n h e r e n t in changes resulting from t h e new information technologies have been articulated in count- less papers and scholarly exchanges. Study of its influence on society has been typically approached from a technological perspective. That is, the likely developments of a given technology were projected and i t s probable social impacts were t h e n derived. Or, more creatively, various f u t u r e forms of a technology were conceived with subsequent a t t e m p t s to assess t h e beneficial and harmful effects of each on society.
Both approaches have increasingly been rejected a s too determinis- tic and, in t h e face of a c t u a l experience, often wrong (see Godet 1983a a n d 1983b). Instead, scholars have concluded t h a t "the focus should not be on t h e technology itself, but on the social policy options and t h e prob- able consequences of those policy choices
...
We should focus our a t t e n - tion on social problems a n d institutional analysis in order to keep t h e technology i n appropriate perspective" (Parker 1976). However, since we shall l a t e r be discussing issues which policy makers a n d the public a r e facing in t h e evolution towards t h e f u t u r e information society, i t i s a s well t o indicate broadly t h e technologies with which we a r e c o n c e r n e d a n d t o relate t h e s e t o applications having or likely to have socio- economic impacts.The Technologies
According t o Sugiyama (198Z), t h e technological basis of t h e infor- mation society may be viewed as having t h r e e main elements:
--
C o m m u n i c a t i o n t e c h n o l o g y (for transmitting and receiving inform ation)--
C o m p u t e r t e c h n o l o g y (for processing, storing and retrieving information)-- Control t e c h n o l o g y (for guiding operational processes t h r o u g h t h e use of information)
The continued rapid growth in all t h r e e technologies does not need stressing, but i t may be noted t h a t an equally important factor is t h a t many novel, highly significant applications a r e offspring of t h e marriage of two or more of t h e above technologies. For example, t h e development of computer time sharing on t h e one hand and computer control of telecommunications (packet swikching) techniques on t h e other, made possible s u c h applications as electronic fund transfer and airline reser- vation systems. Another combination of computer a n d communications technology (in t h e shape of
TV)
resulted in videotex. In the immediate future, broadcast satellite systems, combined with computerized t e x t and image processing, will find immediate application in t h e direct transfer of broadband digital data, information and pictorial images from source to individual user. This will add a challenging new dimension t o the transborder d a t a flow problem.The Applications
Masuda (1980) suggested t h a t applications of computerization could be considered as occurring on t h r e e levels: a local scale, a national or regional scale, and finally a global scale. For any particular application t h e t h r e e different levels could also be considered sequentially--local applications would normally precede national applications, a n d t h e l a t t e r would precede global applications. Thus different applications would not necessarily be a t t h e same stage a t any particular point in time. Masuda suggests, for example, t h a t a t t h e second level, communications features a r e added to t h e products of computer technology to c r e a t e "telematics", while satellile communication is added to telematics t o reach t h e t h i r d level. He also groups applications into four classes: those directed towards science, business, t h e public, and t h e individual. This seems a convenient framework in which t o list applications in a perspective relevant t o societ.al impacts and implications.
m LI - Stand Alone Systems
S c i e n c e . Scientific computation in, e.g., space r e s e a r c h , high e n e r g y physics, radio astronomy, etc.
B u s i n e s s . Inventory, stock control, payroll systems, process control a n d m a n a g e m e n t information s y s t e m s , etc.
f i b l i c . Social security and health records, library systems including simple information retrieval, computer-assisted training and education.
Individual. Electronic calculators, electronic games, personal computers.
LlWEL I1 - Computer plus Telecommunications (Telematics)
S c i ~ n c e . Computer networking for joint database creation and use, distributed processing, electronic invisible colleges, networked early warning systems.
B u s i n e s s . Electronic fund transfer, credit checking a n d elec- t r o n i c banking, airline and hotel reservation systems, commer- cial time-sharing operations, coordination of m a n a g e m e n t
I
information in geographically dispersed enterprises, locally i n t e r c o n n e c t e d all-electronic offices.
P u b l i c . On-line information retrieval information systems accessible t o all, electronic mail, i n t e g r a t e d urban traffic con- trol, regionally-integrated air traffic control, remote systems for medical diagnosis and t r e a t m e n t , electronic publishing a n d full-text transfer, use of
TV
and c o m p u t e r networks for educa- tion, e t c .Individual. All forms of video t e x t services (information, elec- t r o n i c shopping, electronic mail order, e t c . ) , cable
TV
a n d other individual manifestations of t h e "wired city".LFVEL
III - Global Teleinformatics Plus Broadband FacilitiesSkience. Real-time delivery of data from high energy physics experiments, relay communication satellites for onboard d a t a handling for eart,h resources satellites, e t c .
Business. Integrated voice data facsimile and TV teleconferenc- ing facilities for international business, interconnected all- electronic offices.
h b l i c . Intercontinental t e x t transfer, regional educational satellite syst,ems (e.g., PEACESAT for the Pacific Ocean region),
TV
broadcast by satellite directly to domesticTV
s e t s on a n intercontinental scale, etc.h d i v i d u a l . A global information utility.
In practice, t h e r e will be o t h e r applications, particularly in Level 111, which c a n n o t now be foreseen. I t should also be noted t h a t technological development in t h e specific a r e a s of robotics a n d computers m a y pro- duce applications of information technology not listed above. For exam- ple, robotized factories (already far advanced), practical applications of artificial intelligence, and t h e successful development of a "thinking machine" in t h e shape of t h e fifth generation computer would have far- reaching consequences worth close observation.
Society and Technology
Returning to a sociological, r a t h e r than technological perspective.
one m u s t note t h e absence of successful a t t e m p t s to provide a sys- t e m a t i c methodology describing t h e complex relations between technol- ogy, particularly information technology, and society. At IIASA, one s u c h effort resulted in a "Framework for Information Technology-based Inno- vation" (Sugiyama 1982). Sugiyama's paper points to the importance of information a s a resource, comparable t o material and energy. I t t h e n describes technological innovations, arriving a t four broad categories of
"impacts on society": economic, social, political, and cultural.
Apart f r o m t h e p r o b l e m of s e m a n t i c s , groupings of t h i s k i n d a r e largely a p r o d u c t of t h e a u t h o r ' s i m a g i n a t i o n a n d c o n v e n t i o n a l thinking.
T h e r e i s n o way t o prove e x h a u s t i v e coverage, m u t u a l exclusivity, o r u n i - f o r m levels of c o n c e p t u a l i z a t i o n . Unfortunately, s i m i l a r d e f i c i e n c i e s o c c u r i n o t h e r , often e x c e l l e n t , m a t e r i a l s . For e x a m p l e , P a r k e r (1976) provides h i s own p a r t i c u l a r "list'' of economic q u e s t i o n s , social i s s u e s , application a r e a s , a n d ( s h o r t e r - t e r m ) policy questions. Also, in t h e i r r e p o r t a b o u t t h e 1982 C o n f e r e n c e on t h e "Information Society", t h e FAST e d i t o r s e n c o u n t e r e d s i m i l a r p r o b l e m s in t h e i r a t t e m p t t o provide sys- t e m a t i c coverage (Bjorn-Anderson 1982).
The FAST e d i t o r s explain t h a t t h e y a r e u n a b l e t o offer a c o m p r e h e n - sive, s y s t e m a t i c m o d e l of t h e society/information t e c h n o l o g y i n t e r p l a y in all i t s facets. Nevertheless, t h e information s o c i e t y develops c e a s e - lessly. Bold e x p e r i m e n t s a r e u n d e r w a y in m a n y c o u n t r i e s , r u l e s a n d r e g u l a t i o n s a r e being devised, a n d policy m a t t e r s a r e d e a l t with o n t h e b a s i s of whatever advice, i n s i g h t , o r i n s t i n c t is available.
m.
IMPACTSAND
ISSUESI t h a s b e e n s t a t e d " t h a t e v e n s c i e n t i s t s r e n d e r t h e i r work c o h e r e n t , progressive a n d m a n a g e a b l e by embodying s h a r e d s o c i a l / i n t e l l e c t u a l f i l t e r s i n t h e i r disciplines. T h e s e socially b u t t r e s s e d f r a m e w o r k s d e t e r - m i n e what a r e r e l e v a n t a n d i m p o r t a n t goals a n d q u e s t i o n s , w h a t a r e valid t e c h n i q u e s a n d e x p l a n a t o r y s y s t e m s , a n d what c o u n t s a s r e l e v a n t a n d meaningful information" (Wynn a n d Otway 1982). This r e c o g n i t i o n u n d e r l i e s o u r a t t e m p t i n t h i s s e c t i o n t o b r e a k down a n d o r g a n i z e v a r i o u s a r t i c u l a t i o n s of c o n c e r n i n t o p a c k a g e s suitable for descriptive t r e a t m e n t i n t h i s s u r v e y a n d for s u b s e q u e n t evaluation in f u t u r e r e s e a r c h .
Our c h o i c e h a s b e e n a g r o u p i n g of seven broadly defined i s s u e a r e a s for which we h a v e a s s e m b l e d r e l e v a n t ideas c o n c e r n i n g t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s of t h e new information t e c h n o l o g i e s . A first g l a n c e a t t h e l i s t will m a k e i t obvious t h a t t h e i s s u e a r e a s a r e n o t m u t u a l l y exclusive; r a t h e r e a c h r e p r e s e n t s a point of d e p a r t u r e f r o m which s e v e r a l p h e n o m e n a a.nd c h a n g e s in society c o u l d be s e e n a n d analyzed.
The seven issue a r e a s a r e t h e following:
1. Work a n d Employment 2. Business a n d Management
3. Developing Countries: Challenges a n d Opportunities 4. Education a n d Learning
5. Culture a n d Values
6. International Regulation for Social Benefit 7. The Economic Value of Information
I. Work and Fmployment
That t h e penetration of information technologies i n t h e industrial a n d service s e c t o r s will h a v e a n e n o r m o u s impact on t h e n u m b e r s a n d types of jobs available is g e n e r a l l y accepted. According t o Rada (1980), a c o n s u l t a n t t o t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l Labour Organisation, "the a r g u m e n t is n o t w h e t h e r jobs will be lost, b u t whether o t h e r jobs will be c r e a t e d else- where. This question is debatable and and t h e answers a r e largely a m e t t e r of speculation".
I n t h e industrial s e c t o r , t h e large-scale introduction of robots is expected t o rapidly e l i m i n a t e jobs in machine shops a n d assembly lines.
Though national level projections a r e lacking in t h e l i t e r a t u r e surveyed, quantitative e s t i m a t e s of job losses have been made a t t h e e n t e r p r i s e level i n several cases. For example, General Electric's plans t o i n t r o d u c e u p t o 1000 robots in i t s appliance plants between 1980 a n d 1990 a r e expected t o result i n t h e r e p l a c e m e n t of 50% of its 37,000 assembly line workers (Norman 1980). In Norman's view, "jobless growth" increasingly c h a r a c t e r i z e s m a n y m a n u f a c t u r i n g industries, a s productivity p e r h o u r improves while staffing is r e d u c e d . He cites a study undertaken in t h e Federal Republic of Germany which indicates t h a t employment among p r i n t e r s decreased by 21.3% be tween 1970 a n d 1977, while productivity per h o u r increased by 43.5%.
Although declining employment opportunities in industry have been offset until now by expansion of the service sector, many observers doubt t h a t this compensation will continue. Norman refers to predictions t h a t
"the most far-reaching impacts of micro-processors will be felt in offices a n d in such service activities as retailing and maintenance work." He suggests t h a t "in most a r e a s of t h e t e r t i a r y s e c t o r , micro-electronics is likely t o lead to slower r a t e s of employment growth and even to job losses". Rada c o n c u r s t h a t "in t h e short r u n , in developed countries, t h e information revolution will have much t h e g r e a t e s t socio-economic effect through t h e automation of offices". He cites a study which predicts t h a t automation could eliminate as many a s 2 million of t h e 5 million existing secretarial jobs in t h e Federal Republic of Germany. Similarly, Norman points to French s t u d y findings indicating t h a t a s many a s 30%
of jobs in banks a n d insurance companies could be eliminated by com- p u t e r s by 1990.
But both investigators emphasize the difficulty of accurately fore- casting t h e dimensions of computer-induced job displacement in t h e ser- vice sector a t this point in time. According to Rada, "the full conse- quences on employment will be felt only on completion of the new invest- m e n t cycle in manufacturing a n d servi'ces
...
full-scale development of office automation, for instance, is expected t o take place in t h e 1980s".Norman agrees t h a t "the full impact of t h e flood of new office technology will only be felt when t h e machines a r e linked in far-flung networks through which information is transported, s t o r e d and processed".
In parallel t o t h e i r discussion of information technology-induced job losses, labor m a r k e t analysts have identified a n u m b e r of strong growth sectors, both in manufacturing and services. Expanded production of computers a n d electronic equipment of o t h e r types (including games) is expected to c r e a t e substantial numbers of new jobs in industry. At t h e s a m e t i m e , increased i n t e r e s t in tourism a n d e n t e r t a i n m e n t a s well as growing needs for health, education and social services are predicted to spur new job opportunities i n the tertiary s e c t o r .
In t h e face of these diverse t r e n d s , a n d given t h e paucity of h a r d data, t h e n e t impact of new information technologies on t h e availability of jobs r e m a i n s unclear. In Rada's words, " a comprehensive framework a n d explanatory variables which would assist in an assessment of partic- ular t2echnological developments is n o t available." Like o t h e r investiga- t o r s , h e identifies a need for cooperative r e s e a r c h a n d open debate.
Despite u n c e r t a i n t i e s about t h e u l t i m a t e i m p a c t of information technologies on t h e labor market, t h e r e is widespread a g r e e m e n t t h a t action policies a r e needed urgently t o deal with short- and m e d i u m - t e r m labor displacement. In t h e opinion of Norman, "the transition to t h e electronic age will
...
require policies to deal with technological unem- ployment in addition to those t h a t support high-technology industries.Simply hoping t h a t t h e unemployment problem will disappear in t h e white h e a t of technological revolution does n o t constitute a viable employment policy i n a period of relatively show growth a n d rapid t e c h - nological change".
The l i t e r a t u r e surveyed suggested t h r e e types of employment poli- cies u n d e r discussion or implemented t o varying degrees in industrial- ized countries: reduction of working t i m e a n d work sharing, government support for expansion of high-technology businesses, and creation of new employment opportunities in t h e service s e c t o r . A fourth policy, execu- tion of large-scale retraining programs, is discussed in a n o t h e r section of t h i s paper.
Reduced working hours a n d job-sharing. A s formulated by Norman,
" t h e t i m e may have come t o consider how t o s h a r e work in a high- productivity society", t o p e r m i t "lighter rvorkloads a n d higher living s t a n d a r d s for many", r a t h e r t h a n "higher profits a n d earnings for a few".
Mechanisms suggested for achieving m o r e equitable sharing of available work include a s h o r t e r working week, l o n g e r vacations, sabbaticals, a n d r e d u c e d opportunities for overtime.
The advantages of such s t r a t e g i e s a r e t h a t t h e y would reduce unem- ployment a t least on the short.-run, a n d would avoid sudden e x t r e m e reductions in work availability for individuals. Arguments against t h e shortening of working hours include i n c r e a s e s in labor costs with
associated inflationary effects, damaging of i n t e r n a t i o n a l competitive- n e s s , t h e u n c e r t a i n p r a c t i c a l i t y of enforcing s t a t u t o r y provisions a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l a g r e e m e n t s on s t a n d a r d i z e d working h o u r s , a n d possibly d e t r i m e n t a l e f f e c t s o n Third World development.
But despite u n c e r t a i n t y a b o u t its effectiveness a s a n ernployment policy, many observers r e g a r d t h e progressive s h o r t e n i n g of working h o u r s a s inevitable. As Rada h a s noted, " t h e evidence s e e m s t o suggest t h e beginning ( o r for s o m e t h e c o n t i n u a t i o n ) of a shift f r o m a society with u n e m p l o y m e n t t o one i n which i n c r e a s e d l e i s u r e is r e g a r d e d a s nor- mal". Mitterand, i n h i s 1982 s p e e c h before t h e Versailles s u m m i t , a g r e e d t h a t " t h e rapid s u b s t i t u t i o n of new jobs for old
...
will be a c c o m p a n i e d by a profound evolution i n t h e c o n t e n t of work a n d i t s organization. It will give a n o t h e r meaning t o t h e s h o r t e n i n g of work-time".The prospect of i n c r e a s e d s h a r i n g of available work itself raises a h o s t of questions c o n c e r n i n g organization a n d personal a d j u s t m e n t . R a t h e n a u (1982), a Swedish e x p e r t in information technology policy, s t a t e s "how t o d i s t r i b u t e work among people, b u t also how t o d i s t r i b u t e work, study, a n d r e c r e a t i o n over t h e duration of a p e r s o n ' s life, how t o find t h e link-up between wages a n d n e e d s
...
t h e s e a r e so m a n y problems demanding radical solutions in t h e foreseeable future". Mitterand (1982) e m p h a s i z e s similarly t h e "need for r e s e a r c h on t h e organization of work...
t h e effects of new technologies on t h e length of work a n d i t s pos- sible reduction".Government s u p p o r t f o r expansion of high-technolog y businesses.
Although deferring t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n of new technology is s o m e t i m e s sug- g e s t e d a s a m e a n s for c i r c u m v e n t i n g u n e m p l o y m e n t , m o s t a n a l y s t s con- c u r t h a t s u c h a policy would seriously h a r m a nation's competitive s t r e n g t h in t h e world m a r k e t , would r e s u l t in t h e loss of c e r t a i n m a n u f a c t u r i n g activities to o t h e r c o u n t r i e s , a n d would p r e v e n t t h e labor force from benefiting f r o m job c r e a t i o n in t h e micro-electronics s e c t o r . For t h e s e reasons, world l e a d e r s have soundly r e j e c t e d t h i s option, call- ing i n s t e a d for g o v e r n m e n t i n v e s t m e n t s in micro-eiectronic technology a n d for t h e s u p p o r t of d e m a n d t o p r o m o t e t h e development of m a r k e t s for new goods a n d services. Mitterand s t a t e d a t t h e Versailles s u m m i t ,
"We m u s t respond t o t h e technological revolution by encouraging indus- t r i a l i n v e s t m e n t s in t h e private and public sectors". Johannson (1982), a Swedish analyst, h a s noted t h a t OECD c o u n t r i e s have shown g e n e r a l a g r e e m e n t on t h e n e e d t o subsidize R&D a n d initiate public p r o c u r e m e n t policies favorable t o t h e diffusion of micro-electronic products.
Norman n o t e d i n 1980 t h a t t h e g o v e r n m e n t of t h e Federal Republic of Germany is investing a b o u t 25 million dollars per y e a r i n t o R&D pro- jects in support of t h e c o m p u t e r industry. Similar i n v e s t m e n t s t r a t e g i e s have b e e n d o c u m e n t e d for France, Japan a n d t h e USA. P r i m e Minister Thatcher of t h e United Kingdom has s t r e s s e d t h e n e e d t o promote com- petition between f i r m s in t h e micro-electronics s e c t o r , noting t h a t Brit- ish Government policy is t o put nationalized i n d u s t r i e s i n t o private hands, a n d t o b r e a k u p monopolies (Thatcher 1982).
Creation of e m p l o y m e n t in t h e s e r v i c e s e c t o r . As noted above, several analysts feel t h a t creation of new employment opportunities in t h e service s e c t o r c a n compensate for job losses in o t h e r a r e a s c a u s e d by t h e diffusion of information technologies. Trends which could lead t o a n expansion of jobs in t h e service s e c t o r include (1) t h e aging of popula- tions, associated with increased need for labor-intensive h e a l t h a n d social services; (2) increasing a m o u n t s of l e i s u r e t i m e a n d rapid t u r n - over in technologies, creating a desire a n d need for continuing educa- tion; (3) rapid social change, including increasing u n e m p l o y m e n t a n d divorce, associated with a need for counselling services of a l l kinds; (4) t h e possibility of a backlash reaction t o t h e widespread diffusion of infor- m a t i o n technologies, producing a d e m a n d for m o r e h u m a n c o n t a c t in activities of daily living; a n d (5) t h e dernand for specialized personnel such as p r o g r a m m e r s arid electronic engineers in t h e information tech- nology b r a n c h itself. As well, Rostow (1983) h a s n o t e d t h a t a g r e a t back- log h a s evolved in r e c e n t y e a r s in regard t o t.he renovation of public ser- vice infrastructure. The broadest view of t h e potential of t h e service s e c t o r a s a s o u r c e of jobs is provided by Strassrnan (1982). H e describes a Framework For a new social economy based on new services, pointing t o t h e opportunity for expansion of operating personnel who c a n deliver services tailored t o t h e n e e d s of clients.
2. Business and Management
Business enterprises a n d prevailing m a n a g e m e n t practices have been praised a n d blamed--by varying constituencies--as both t h e cause of, a n d t h e c u r e for, m a n y of t h e "problems" and "benefits" associated with t h e new information technology. Millions of jobs a n d billions in e q u i p m e n t have been or will be rendered obsolete a n d uncompetitive by 4 t h e new technology, a t a r a t e and on a scale never before encountered.
A t t h e s a m e t i m e , technical breakthroughs and marketing successes in t h e information technology s p h e r e have c r e a t e d millions of new jobs a n d hope for increasing levels of societal wealth in t h e f u t u r e (Masuda 1980, S t r a s s m a n 1982).
Traditional m a n a g e m e n t practices have themselves come under s c r u t i n y and a r e changing a s new "info-technical" possibilities become m o r e widely available. Thus, a s a cause, a c u r e , and a case i n point, t h e issues surrounding t h e impacts of new information technologies on t h e
"business community" a r e pervasive--as numerable as t h e variables which c a n be used t o describe business institutions a n d managerial actions a n d a s varied as existing views about t h e roles of businesses, e n t r e p r e n e u r s , a n d managers in a n economy.
Growth o f informatics us an industry. One question which m u s t be raised a t t h e o u t s e t is whether t h e development of t h e informatics indus- t r y is following p a t t e r n s s e t earlier by other industries. If this seems t o be t h e case, retrospective study of t h e behavior of emerging industries could provide insights about strategies for supporting and guiding t h e information technology industry. If t h e development of t h i s industry is a n u n p r e c e d e n t e d phenomenon, however, policy formulation becomes t h e m o r e u n c e r t a i n .
One may identify a n u m b e r of intriguing features characterizing t h e evolution of t h e informatics industry. First, t h e r e is t h e dramatic shift
t
in t h e i m p o r t a n c e a n d value of hardware relative to software, with some software products costing nearly as m u c h as t h e computers on which they a r e r u n . Secondly. a t r e m e n d o u s range of labor a n d capital intensi- ties a r e found in subsectors of t h e informatics industry; the capital
i n v e s t m e n t s n e e d e d t o develop microchips m a y be c o n t r a s t e d with t h e d e m a n d for labor to e x e c u t e s u c h tasks a s d a t a input. This range is r e f l e c t e d in t h e varied composion of t h e labor force working in t h e infor- m a t i c s industry: highly skilled persons a r e r e q u i r e d for software pro- g r a m m i n g , while minimally t r a i n e d persons c a n handle d a t a e n t r y tasks.
One m u s t also t a k e note of t h e r a n g e in t h e scale of activities under- t a k e n in t h e informatics branch. The capital i n t e n s i t y of hardware tech- nology h a s produced t h e "bigger is better" approach taken by mainframe p r o d u c e r s . In t h e case of production of communications equipment, aggregation i n t o large industrial u n i t s has been a national practice for m a n y y e a r s , due in p a r t to t h e preference of national telecorn adminis- t r a t o r s for single s o u r c e equipment supply a r r a n g e m e n t s . However, a n a l y s t s have n o t e d t h a t a "bigger is better" philosophy a c t s t o c u r b innovation in t h e communications equipment sector. In r e c e n t y e a r s , new p r o d u c t s in t h e a r e a s of peripherals, personal c o m p u t e r s , games, a n d o t h e r devices have shown t h e m a r k e t potential for innovative small- s c a l e v e n t u r e s . Mitterand (1982) h a s concluded t h a t "technical innova- tion essentially r e m a i n s t h e a c h i e v e m e n t of small a n d medium-sized firms".
Attention m u s t also be focused on increasing t r e n d s toward techni- cal c o n v e r g e n c e of hardware products. The e m e r g e n c e of "telematics"
h a s begun t o blur t h e distinction between t h e communications equip- m e n t i n d u s t r y a n d t h e c o m p u t e r industry. It will also become i n c r e a s - ingly difficult t o draw t h e line between t h e production of m a c h i n e tools a n d robotics. In s o m e cases s u c h s t r u c t u r a l changes a r e spurring com- p e t i t i o n between subsectors; for i n s t a n c e , following t h e break-up of AT&T, t h e residual company is joining forces with Olivetti in an a t t e m p t t o c o m p e t e with IBM a n d t h e Japanese.
Another f e a t u r e or t h e informatics industry is t h e variation in indus- t r i a l n o r m s a t t h e e n t e r p r i s e , national, a n d international levels. Rada (1980) s t r e s s e s t h e multi-national, even global, effort needed t o e n s u r e c o h e r e n t guiding principles for ttie e m e r g e n t global information society, b o t h i n t e r m s of i n f r a s t r u c t u r e and operations. Development of a joint i n d u s t r i a l policy among Western European countries--to p e r m i t
successful competition with Japanese an d American electronics/communications industries and to reverse t h e i r position as n e t importers of technology--is t h e r a i s o n d ' e n t r e of s u c h efforts a s t h e FAST program. Yet, some authorities believe t h a t achievement of indus- trial convergence on a continental scale will prove insufficient in the future; i n t h e i r opinion, even l a r g e r units will have to cooperate t o c a r r y out t h e research a n d development necessary to operationalize t h e fifth generation computer concept. A salient issue in this context is t o iden- tify t h e level of aggregation a t which policies should be formulated (glo- bal, regional, international) a n d t o determine how high-level policy m e a s u r e s c a n be implemented while ensuring fair corporate behavior by the participants in a global industrial effort, as well a s to provide a n ade- q u a t e level of public control.
The friction between the perceived need for international coopera- tion and t h e desire for national self-sufficiency also emerges from the c u r r e n t discussion about t h e informatics industry. Many g o v e r n m e n t s consider i t essential t o maintain a national capability in every s e c t o r of t h e economy, and t h u s support domestic informatiori technology indus- t r i e s t o assure t h a t t h e y r e m a i n competitive in t h e international market. In this context, self-sufficiency i n information products is t r e a t e d as a m a t t e r of national security. Some decision m a k e r s , how- ever, consider t h a t isolationist approaches c r e a t e a wasteful duplication of effort. They strive to develop workable international a g r e e m e n t s t o reduce international confrontation in the sphere of informatics systems.
E f f e c t s of the p e n e t r a t i o n of informu,tion technology a t t h e e n t e r - p r i s e l e v e l . Investigators such a s
R.M.
Lee (1983) and Wynne a n d Otway (1982) have examined new forms for and limits of applying information technology in bureaucracies and o t h e r managerial set-tings. One argu- m e n t is t h a t t h e r e will be m o r e "power" for middle m a n a g e m e n t in a decentralized, y e t electronically interconnected mode of operation. A countervailing view is t h a t use of new informatiori technologies will s t r e n g t h e n t h e posilion of managers a t t h e center.Clearly, employees' access t o a central source of information will change the corporate environment, in t e r m s of power and hierarchy. It is possible t h a t a g r e a t e r a m o u n t of teamwork will emerge, with a hor- izontal ( r a t h e r t h a n hierarchical) s t r u c t u r e organized a r o u n d the access t o a common source of information.
Strassman foresees significant improvements in administrative pro- ductivity through t a s k simplification (or elimination) in a quantitative sense a n d e n h a n c e m e n t of value added of enterprise activities in a quali- tative sense. If new office technology is used t o transform organizational processes r a t h e r t h a n just to mechanize existing office procedures, employees' work will t a k e on new significance; d e p a r t m e n t s ' missions will change, with m o r e value being placed on c u s t o m e r service a n d g r e a t e r responsiveness being introduced into smaller units of service delivery. In S t r a s s m a n ' s view, introduction of information technology could permit t h e lagging service sector of t h e economy to achieve new levels of productivity a n d wealth creation.
According t o Strassman, however, new conventions on cost account- ing and investment evaluation will be required for s u c h redirection of managerial priorities. Increased attention will also have to be given to individual learning a n d t o adaptation to changes in power and t h e organi- zation of information. The receptivity of management a n d workers t o new information technologies and t h e creation of m a n a g e m e n t s t r u c - t u r e s responsive t o t h e new technologies t h u s become major issues a t t h e enterprise level.
3. Developing Countries: Challenges and Opportunities
We can consider t h e i m p a c t s of irlformation technology on develop- ing countries from two points of view, the strategic a n d t h e tactical. The strategic is mainly c o n c e r n e d with changes in t h e North-South situation likely t o be induced by t h e spread of information technology, particu- larly its concentration in t h e industrialized countries. On t h e tactical level, i t is necessary t o consider how information technology can actively assist t h e development process.
Strategic i m p a c t s . Certain developing c o u n t r i e s h a v e h i t h e r t o found i t profitable t o u n d e r t a k e t h e m a n u f a c t u r e of e l e c t r o n i c c o m p o n e n t s for e x p o r t , t h u s providing new e m p l o y m e n t possibilities for semi-skilled labor a t c o s t s which c a n n o t be m a t c h e d i n t h e i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s . This is p e r h a p s a special c a s e of a m o r e g e n e r a l p a t t e r n of t r a d e between North a n d South: t h e North t e n d s t o e x p o r t c e r t a i n t y p e s of jobs t o t h e S o u t h , a n d t o i m p o r t finished o r semi-finished produc:ts; t h i s supplies t h e S o u t h with foreign e x c h a n g e t o pay for n e e d e d i m p o r t s of capital goods, e q u i p m e n t , a n d o t h e r goods. As t h e possibilities a n d e x t e n t of produc- tion a u t o m a t i o n develop i n industrialized c o u n t r i e s , however, t h e com- petitive a d v a n t a g e of developing c o u n t r i e s ' lower l a b o r c o s t s could b e r e d u c e d . In o n e s e n s e , t h e r e f o r e , f a c t o r y a u t o m a t i o n could r e s u l t in a loss of jobs i n both i n d u s t r i a l i z e d a n d developing c o u n t r i e s , a n d a t t h e s a m e t i m e p u s h t h e b a l a n c e of t r a d e a g a i n s t developing c o u n t r i e s , rein- forcing a t r e n d which m a y h a r m both. Both Mitterand (1982) a n d Rostow (1983), f r o m t h e i r different s t a n d p o i n t s , c o m e t o t h e s a m e conclusion:
t h e a p p l i c a t i o n of i n f o r m a t i o n technology a s an innovative force i n i n d u s t r i a l i z e d s o c i e t i e s r e q u i r e s a n i n c r e a s e i n t h e funding of develop- m e n t in t h e developing c o u n t r i e s , both i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y a n d bilaterally.
R a d a (19R0) s t r e s s e s t h a t t h e c o n c e n t r a t i o n of t h e e l e c t r o n i c s i n d u s t r y in t h e i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s s k r v e s only t o reinforce t h e existing i m b a l a n c e of t r a d e a n d t h e i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s ' l e a d in t h e application of s c i e n c e a n d technology. E l e c t r o n i c s a p p a r e n t l y a c c o u n t f o r o v e r 30% of m a n u f a c t u r e d goods e x p o r t e d f r o m t h e developing coun- t r i e s , b u t i t i s often c l a i m e d t h a t , a s s u c h c o u n t r i e s a r e m e r e l y one link in a c h a i n of a p r o c e s s of d i s t r i b u t e d m a n u f a c t u r e c o n t r o l l e d by m u l t i n a - t i o n a l c o r p o r a t i o n s , t h e y h a v e n o influence on t h e o p e r a t i o n a s a whole;
t h e i r c o n t r i b u t i o n t o t h e finished p r o d u c t does l i t t l e t o a s s i s t develop- m e n t of t h e i r own i n d u s t r y . Indeed, a s a l r e a d y n o t e d , o n c e t h e c o s t of p r o c e s s a u t o m a t i o n falls t o levels m a t c h i n g t h e labor c o s t s i n t h e pro- cessing c o u n t r y , a u t o m a t i o n is applied in t h e i n d u s t r i a l - c o u n t r y point of t.he p r o d u c t i o n c h a i n . n u t a t t h e developing c o u n t r y e n d . Thus t h e developing c o u n t r i e s lose n o t only t h e i r e x p o r t e a r n i u g s b u t also t h e pos- sibility of applying a n y new know-how.
These impacts suggest t h a t policies and strategies for broad-based technical assistance and development-aid programs could be f o r m u l a t e d a t both t h e bilateral a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l levels. However, t h e r e s e e m s t o be little sign of a g r e e m e n t on t h e form, scope, a n d c o n t e n t of s u c h North-South programs.
Rada (1980) notes policy t r e n d s in t h e developing c o u n t r i e s t h e m - selves in r e s p e c t t o c o m p u t e r technology. The c o u n t r i e s m e n t i o n e d (Argentina, Chile, Brazil, a n d India) a r e a t t h e r i c h e r end of t h e develop- m e n t s p e c t r u m a n d t h e policies mainly c o n c e r n t h e relaxation o r impo- sition of import controls e i t h e r t o s t i m u l a t e c e r t a i n types of computeri- zation, or t o favor t h e development of a home EDP industry. For instance, India h a s developed elaborate policies a n d regulations govern- ing t h e purchase a n d u s e of computers: t h e r e is a home i n d u s t r y a n d foreign investment i n i t i s regulated. Rada considers t h a t o t h e r develop- ing countries will wish t o adopt t h e Indian p a t t e r n of regulating both m a r k e t s a n d use.
Tactical issues. From a tactical viewpoint, a key question is how t o apply existing information r e s o u r c e s t o t h e development process itself a n d how t o identify a n d develop t h e necessary kinds of information, if t h e y do n o t already exist. Page (1982) h a s reviewed s o m e existing infor- mation transfer technologies in t h e light of t h e i r applicability t o t h e gen- e r a l requirements for professional information i n developing c o u n t r i e s . While access t o scientific, t e c h n i c a l , medical, economic, and o t h e r data- bases a n d databanks offered by on-line information services is i m p o r t a n t in industrialized countries, m u c h of t.he material is i r r e l e v a n t t o developing countries' problems. Existing mini- and micro-computer techniques would, however, facilitate t h e development a n d operation of simple, cheap, and easy-to-use information systems. This would often include local information, n o t readily accessible by ot,her m e a n s b u t highly relevant to development needs. New mass storage s y s t e m s developed for electronic office applications i n indus triaiized c o u n t r i e s a r e very suitable for providing acc:ess t o full text information. A main- f r a m e c o m p u t e r is n o t needed t o process t h e material c o n t a i n e d by t h e storage systems and t h e y a r e therefore suitable a s vehicles for t h e
