.PAPER?
fro m t h e
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR ENVIRONMENT AND SOCIETY of the
SCIENCE CENTER BERLIN
CECP Technical Reports Vol. Ill ENERGY TRENDS AND POLICY IMPACTS An Analysis of Energy Statistics,from seven
Countries within the CECP Project Tage Klingberg and Kurt Wickman
INTERNATIONAL RESIDENTIAL ENERGY STATISTICS A Compilation of Data from Eight Western Countries
Roger Wickman
1984
Report prepared at the National Swedish Institute for Building Research, Gävle, Sweden.
C O N S U M E R E N E R G Y C O N S E R V A T I O N P O L I C I E S (CECP) A M u l t i - N a t i o n a l S t u d y
C E C P is an i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o o p e r a t i v e r e s e a r c h u n d e r t a k i n g , i n i t i a t e d in 1981, w h i c h e v a l u a t e s a n d c o m p a r e s e n e r g y c o n s e r v a t i o n p o l i c y a n d p r o g r a m s in e i g h t W e s t e r n c o u n t r i e s . Its a i m is to c o n t r i b u t e to i m p r o v e d d e s i g n a n d i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of p o l i c i e s a n d p r o g r a m s c o n d u c i v e to a r a t i o n a l use o e n e r g y at the l e v e l of p r i v a t e h o u s e h o l d s a n d the r e s i d e n t i a l s e c t o r .
R e s e a r c h is c o n d u c t e d in three p h a s e s : P h a s e I d o c u m e n t s a n d c o m p a r e s e x i s t i n g p o l i c i e s a n d p r o g r a m s o f c e n t r a l a n d l o c a l g o v e r n m e n t , u t i l i t i e s , c o n s u m e r , e n v i r o n m e n t a l , and v o l u n t a r y o r g a n i s a t i o n s . In P h a s e II, s t a r t e d in 1983, e m p i r i c a l s t u d i e s of the l i n k a g e s b e t w e e n p r o g r a m - l e v e 1 a n d h o u s e h o l d - l e v e l p r o c e s s e s are c a r r i e d o u t in e x e m p l a r y c o m m u n i t i e s . P h a s e III c o m p a r e s a n d s y n t h e s i z e s the r e s u l t s of all n a t i o n a l s t u d i e s a n d d r a w s c o n c l u s i o n s on e n e r g y , e n v i r o n m e n t a l , and c o n s u m e r p o l i c y i s s u e s in r e l a t i o n to the p r o c e s s e s of c o n s u m e r e n e r g y c o n s e r v a t i o n .
C E C P s t u d i e s are f u n d e d by a v a r i e t y of n a t i o n a l a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l i n s t i t u t i o n s . I n t e r n a t i o n a l c o o r d i n a t i o n a n d c o m p a r i s o n of r e s u l t s is m a d e p o s s i b l e by r e s e a r c h g r a n t s from t h e G e n e r a l D i r e c t o r a t e for E n v i r o n m e n t , C o n s u m e r P r o t e c t i o n a n d N u c l e a r S a f e t y of the C o m m i s s i o n of the E u r o p e a n C o m m u n i t i e s in B r u s s e l s . U s i n g i n d e p e n d e n t funds, an A u s t r a l i a n t e a m is an a s s o c i a t e m e m b e r of the p r o j e c t . We e x p r e s s our g r a t i t u d e for the g e n e r o u s s u p p o r t a n d c o o p e r a t i o n of the C E C w h i c h h a s ma d e th i s r e s e a r c h p o s s i b l e .
T h e c o n t e n t s of t h e s e r e p o r t s are e n t i r e l y the w o r k of their a u t h o r s a n d e x p r e s s n e i t h e r the v i e w s of the C o m m i s s i o n , nor of o t h e r f u n d i n g i n s t i t u t i o n s .
CECP: C O U N T R I E S 'Ä N D E X E C U T I V E C O M M I T T E E S F E D E R A L R E P U B L I C
F R A N C E
G R E A T B R I T A I N
G R E E C E
N E T H E R L A N D S
S W E D E N
U N I T E D S T A T E S OF
A U S T R A L I A
OF G E R M A N Y B E R N W A R D J O E R G E S
( p r o j e c t c o o r d i n a t o r )
I n t e r n a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e for E n v i r o n m e n t a n d S o c i e t y
(IIES), S c i e n c e C e n t e r B e r l i n E R I C M O N N I E R
C e n t r e S c i e n t i f i q u e e t T e c h n i q u e du B a t i m e n t (CSTB) P a r i s
G E O R G E G A S K E L L
( p r o j e c t c o o r d i n a t o r )
D e p a r t m e n t of S o c i a l P s y c h o logy, L o n d o n S c h o o l of
E c o n o m i c s a n d P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e S E Y M O U R W A R K O V
C e n t e r for the S t u d y of P u b l i c P o l i c y , U n i v e r s i t y of C o n n e c ticut, S t o r r s
K O S T A S Z O G R A F O S
D e p a r t m e n t of C i v i l E n g i n e e ring, U n i v e r s i t y o f C o n n e c t i c u t , S t o r r s
P E T E R E S T E R
I n s t i t u t e for E n v i r o n m e n t a l S t u d i e s , Fr e e U n i v e r s i t y of Ams te rdam
T H E O DE V R I E S
N e t h e r l a n d s F o u n d a t i o n for C o n s u m e r R e s e a r c h (SWOKA),
Den H a a g
TAGE K L I N G B E R G
T h e N a t i o n a l S w e d i s h I n s t i t u t e for B u i l d i n g R e s e a r c h , G ä v l e A M E R I C A M A R V I N E. O L S E N
D e p a r t m e n t o f S o c i o l o g y , W a s h i n g t o n S tate U n i v e r s i t y , P u l l m a n
D A V I D J. C R O S S L E Y ( a s s o c i a t e mem b e r ) V i c t o r i a E n e r g y P l a n
D e p a r t m e n t of M i n e r a l s a n d E n e r g y , M e l b o u r n e
EDITOR'S PREFACE
The main thrust of the first series of CECP studies has been the docu
mentation and evaluation of distinct energy conservation policies and programs, and the assessment of the impacts and consequences of parti
cular instruments on the way of life and the environment of particular consumer groups.
In addition to these highly qualitative analyses, energy consumption statistics for the period 1970 to 1982 were compiled for the countries included, based on a common list of items. These aggregate data were, in the first place, used as a background.to the discussion of national energy policies in the CECP country reports. We felt, however, that these time series represent a unique set of information on developments in the household/residential sector of energy consumption, and that a separate cross-national compilation and discussion regarding structural changes in energy consumption as well as possible policy effects would be worthwhile.
Tage Klingberg and Kurt Wickman of the Swedish team have undertaken this work. While it is only fair to say that the interpretations and conclusions drawn from the mass of data cannot represent the views of all members of the multi-national project, the analyses presented here have in turn added to the country teams' understanding of the structu
ral changes in the energy economy shaping the process of consumer energy conservation.
We hope to contribute with this companion piece to the comparative pro
gram analysis presented in vol. II of the Technical Report Series to the ongoing debate on policy choices concerning energy conservation.
The technical and financial support of the National Swedish Institute for Building Research in Gävle, and particularly the able assistance of Roger Wickman in compiling the statistical material, are gratefully acknowledged.
i
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t
SUMMARY OF CONTENTS PAGE
PART I: ENERGY TRENDS AND POLICY IMPACTS Table of Contents
Foreword 1
Chapter 1: Identifying Policy Impacts in a Turbulent
Environment 3
7 Chapter 2: The Statistical Material
Chapter 3: Energy Policy in the Different Countries - 11 A Brief Overview, with an Emphasis on Energy Conservation
Chapter 4: Some' Trends in the Different Countries 27 Chapter 5: Some Policy Effects, Especially Concerning the
Building/Household Sector 61
Concluding Discussion 75
Notes 79
References 81
PART II: INTERNATIONAL RESIDENTIAL ENERGY STATISTICS
Table of Contents 86
About the Data Sources and Some Methodological Matters 87
Statistical Data 90
Appendices 294
iii
j
<
ENERGY TRENDS AND POLICY IMPACTS
An Analysis of Energy Statistics from Seven Countries within the CECP Project
by
Tage Klingberg & Kurt Wickman
FRG FRANCE
THE NETHERLANDS
TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE
FOREWORD 1
CHAPTER I. IDENTIFYING POLICY IMPACTS IN A
TURBULENT ENVIRONMENT 3
MAJOR PROBLEMS 3
OUR APPROACH U
SECONDARY EFFECTS OMITTED H
PRELIMINARY HYPOTHESES 5
CHAPTER II. THE STATISTICAL MATERIAL 7
CHAPTER III. ENERGY POLICY IN THE DIFFERENT COUNTRIES - A BRIEF OVERVIEW, WITH AN EMPHASIS
ON ENERGY CONSERVATION 11
Some conceptual notes 11
Pricing policies 13
Federal Republic of Germany (FRG) lU
France l6
Greece 18
The Netherlands 19
Sweden 20
The United Kingdom (UK) 21
The United States (USA) 22
Some general tendencies 23
CHAPTER IV. SOME TRENDS IN THE DIFFERENT COUNTRIES 27
THE GENERAL STRUCTURE OF ENERGY USE 28
DEVELOPMENT OF ENERGY USE 1970-80 33
Energy consumption change - general 33
Influence of climate variations 36
Development of different energy carriers 38
About time-lags 1+5
PRICE CHANGES FOR DIFFERENT ENERGY CARRIERS 1+7 THE BUSINESS CYCLE INFLUENCE AND CONSTRUCTION
ACTIVITIES 50
Developments on the housing market 53
Construction activity 55
ENERGY IMPORT SHARES - CHANGES DURING THE 1970's 58
vii
PAGE
CHAPTER V. SOME POLICY EFFECTS, ESPECIALLY
CONCERNING THE BUILDING/HOUSEHOLD SECTOR 6l SOME SIMILAR AND DIVERGENT CHARACTERISTICS 6l PRICE (INCLUDING TAXES) AND MARKETS 62 ABOUT TIME LAGS AND DIMINISHING EFFECTS 66
ABOUT THE EFFICIENCY OF ENERGY USE 67
USE OF INCREASED EFFICIENCY 69
THE RATE OF NEW CONSTRUCTION 69
Some simulations of the development of the
building sector 70
Actual growth of the building stock 73
CONCLUDING DISCUSSION 75
NOTES 79
REFERENCES 8l
viii
1.
FOREWORD
As part of the CECP project the seven participating teams from the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG), France, Greece, the Netherlands, Sweden, the United Kingdom (see note 1 on p.79) and the USA, and one associated country, Australia, have submitted data on energy consumption and other relevant matters. In a first step, these have been compiled by Roger Wickman at the National Swedish Institute for Building Research The various units and various currencies in the national reports were converted to one set of units, tabulated and commented on. The full set of statistical information is presented as Part II of this report. In Part I, these statistics are further analysed and discussed. When the assignment was given to us, Australia was not yet included in the data compilation and thus is not included in Part I. However, in Part II, Australian data which we received later have been added (which explains their separate presentation).
The content of Part I is mainly descriptive, i.e., we tried to point at different tendencies in the data and discuss them. The intention is that Kurt Wickman will pursue this work, as part of his regular work at the National Swedish Institute for Building Research, with a more analytical treatment of energy policy in the different countries.
We wish to thank the CECP country teams that have contributed and reviewed the data, and those colleagues who have given comments and criticisms to our first draft. We are also thankful to the Swedish
Council for Building Research, the Commission of the European Communities in Brussels, and the International Institute for Environment and Society in Berlin, who have helped in financing our work.
Kerstin Olofsson, Kerstin Eriksson, and Kerstin Larsson at the Institute were responsible for drawing diagrams and for the secretarial part of this report.
Gävle, April 1984.
Tage Klingberg Kurt Wickman
3.
CHAPTER I. IDENTIFYING POLICY IMPACTS IN A TURBULENT ENVIRONMENT
The basic questions we will deal with in this report are: Which trends are discernible in the energy markets and what has been the
impact of energy policy on energy conservation, primarily in the residential (household) sector during the 197O's? To identify effects of a single policy instrument, or of a whole package, is a difficult undertaking under almost any circumstances. To identi
fy effects of energy policy instruments during the decade after the OPEC oil embargo with its turbulent changes (e.g. price increases) is especially problematic. Nevertheless, we will use some statistical information on seven countries to discuss indicat
ions of policy impacts - or lack of impact. In this chapter we will briefly discuss some problems, our approach and some of its limitations and finally some general hypotheses. The second chapter presents the statistical data base and discusses some general problems inherent in it. The third chapter gives an overview of energy conservation policies in the countries under study. Chapter IV is mainly descriptive as to trends in energy consumption and topics related to this. In chapter V we discuss some possible effects of the policies. In doing this, further material from the literature is introduced.
MAJOR PROBLEMS
The basic methodological problem is to identify the effects of energy policy on the "spontaneous", non-regulated development.
Because of the radical price increases (5“10 times) and other changing conditions (e.g. changing freight rates, risk for cut
off of supply, increased taxes, a set-back in the economy) we can safely assume that even without any government intervention demand for oil, other sources of energy, energy conservation equipment etc would have changed. All actors involved would have changed their behavior to meet the new situation. To what extent they changed more or less because of regulations and other types of policy interventions can seldom be measured in any direct way. . Indirect methods - with large margins of uncertainties - must be used.
U-
In the same vein it is, of course, not much easier to separate the effects of one policy measure (e.g. a regulatory measure such as energy codes) from other measures in a policy package (e.g.
financial measures such as taxes or communicative measures such as information).
OUR APPROACH
In this report we have no access to the precise information that would, allow us to deeply penetrate the fundamental problems
touched upon above. Our basic point of reference is aggregate and rather perspicuous statistics over actual development in the different countries. We will use our statistical material to find similarities and differences in tendencies and sometimes absolute numbers. We will discuss and try to explain some of these simi
larities and differences in terms of different national characte
ristics such as climate, level of industrialization, construction activity, availability of natural resources etc. We will use
those similarities and differences we identify to discuss possible and sometimes probable impacts of policy instruments - in a few cases even of the direction of a country's energy policy. It should however be remembered that we are in no position - not least because of "shaky" statistical information - to form any final opinions on energy policy effects. Moreover, even if tendenci es are found to be statistically clear, other factors than energy policy may be the cause. We will consider such factors, drawing upon works by different authors.
SECONDARY EFFECTS OMITTED
The data compiled is for the most part geared at analyzing energy consumption trends in the residential sector. This means that we will primarily deal with effects on consumption. Secondarily, we will deal with effects on carrier of energy (oil, gas or electri
city etc). Our material is not well suited for dealing with the many different secondary effects that often follow government
interventions. Examples of such effects are environmental im
5.
pacts, increased moisture in buildings, or distributional impacts (the poor pay more?), or increased costs for building material or administration. All these may, taken together, be more important than the primary, intended effects on energy use. Extensive qualitative information on such secondary effects of energy policies and conservation programs is included in the country reports and in Müller's international comparison (se other CECP Technical Reports).
PRELIMINARY HYPOTHESES
Because of the dramatic increases in the price of oil and other energy carriers following suit since 1973 and the recession in the economic development of the Western World during the second half of the 1970's we venture to propose that a major part of the changes in energy use levels and patterns may be attributed to
"pure" market factors, primarily changes emanating from the successive rise in world oil prices. If this hypothesis is true, it should lead to similarities in the development of energy use in different countries. Adjustments in consumption levels should be dominated by price-induced energy conservation investments and behavioral changes.
A second general hypothesis we will discuss is that the effects of government interventions are in many cases decreasing. A large part of the impacts of government regulations may have been aimed at - or at least have had the effect to - induce actors (program agencies, consumer associations, property owners, tenants, in
dustries etc) to adapt to changing prices etc. Adaptations in
clude development of a more conscious strategy. As adaptations are made, policy effects tend to vanish. There are, so to speak, diminishing effects of policy interventions over time.
This second hypothesis may be relevant to energy codes, if the codes do not require a higher insulation level than is cost- effective. The codes then may speed up the change of design and building practice, which otherwise would have come later. How
ever, to the extent that the codes are more stringent than is cost-effective, their effects should be permanent.
6 •
The hypothesis may also be relevant for government subsidies to retrofitting of existing buildings. If subsidies are given to improvement of buildings up to a level of energy conservation that is cost-effective,.the effects on upgrading will be small, once property owners have become aware of what is cost-effective.
The subsidy may, however, cause retrofitting to be carried through some years earlier than otherwise.
The second hypothesis is likely to be relevant also to communica
tive measures such as general information about energy conserva
tion or energy audits followed by advice. As time goes by, awareness of energy conservation and knowledge of practical solutions is more and more disseminated and becomes part of the general knowledge and is included in education and training in the building field. Having come this far, the special advisory services might have considerably less effect than during the initial phase of changed practice.
The second hypothesis is n o t , however, relevant to energy taxes, because they cause a permanent shift in the cost of energy to the consumer, changing his cost effective solution.
Any adaptation to a new set of prices, other market conditions or new technology takes time. There is a time-lag. How large the time-lag is depends on many factors e.g. the amount of change, the level of complexity and the rate of turnover of capital equipment. Energy prices have risen manyfold. Buildings are complex, offering many options for energy conservation. The rate of turnover of buildings is slow, since buildings last for many decades - or centuries. Even the time span between more substan
tial maintenance activities may be 10-20 years or more for a building. With these circumstances in view, we may expect con
siderable time-lags when it concerns the full impact of adjust
ing building practice, and especially physically adjusting the buildings themselves, to the new conditions. It may be a matter
of years - even a decade or two - before the major adaptations have been made. So, even if our second hypothesis is true, govern
ment interventions may have effects over quite a few years.
1 .
CHAPTER II. THE STATISTICAL MATERIAL
The'"basic material in this study is a compilation and partly transformation of statistics from seven countries: Federal Repub
lic of Germany (FRG), France, Greece, the Netherlands, Sweden, the United Kingdom and USA (cf. Wickman, R, 1984). (Beside these seven countries, the compilation also gives information on Aust
ralia.) Time series are presented for the period 1970-80, in some cases to 1982. The statistics gives information on energy markets, consumption and energy-related topics with a special emphasis on the household sector.
This material has been supplemented in certain respects. We have consulted OECD energy statistics for the whole 1970’s, national accounts for different years, United Nations "An Efficient Energy Future" (UN, ECE, 1983) and the IIASA publication "The Growth of Energy Consumption and Prices in the USA, FRG, France and the UK, 1950-1980" (Doblin, 1982).
Official recording of energy concerns, for the most part, deli
veries. This means that actual consumption is lower because of losses during the distribution. However, for electricity, trends in energy consumption closely follow supply. For oil and solid fuels still another factor enters, namely stock-piling of fuel.
Many property-owners have a storage capacity equalling half a year’s consumption or more. This means that deliveries may vary more between two consecutive years than actual consumption. By
studying data over several years the statistical disturbances caused by storage is diminished.
For those interested in more detailed information on household consumption of energy for different purposes we refer to a study led by Lee Schipper (Shipper, 1984). There, detailed calculations of energy use are based on several different studies and data sources. In addition, a number of assumption have had to be made.
Countries included in Schipper’s study are Canada, Denmark, France, Germany (FRG), Sweden and USA. We’ will use some results from Schippper's study, and indicate when we do so. The broad
8.
tendencies in our statistical material and Schipper’s do not differ significantly.
Energy consumption is presented sectorwise, i.e. given especially for industry, transport and "other” sector. The term used for the
"other" sector varies somewhat between different sources and different studies: it is alternatingly used together with the terms "building sector", "residential sector" and "household sector".' The variation in use of terms probably reflects the fact that the energy use for the "other" sector is calculated as a residual and therefore consists of several elements with some common properties. The choice of term often indicates just which of these properties is the most interesting to the researcher - it is not often the case that the choice of term means a special definition of the material and a corresponding reworking of the statistical information sources. In most cases, the same practice is also applied in this study.
The basis for the material is a first collection of statistics, made by national teams in the respective countries. (These will be published separately as appendices to each national report in the CECP report series.) The statistics has been reworked into a common format, some information rearranged with the help of additional sources and some gaps filled in. This includes the recalculation of all the material to one set of units, based on the Si-system. The following items of statistics have been in
cluded (Wickman, K, 198U) :
1 Final consumption of energy
2 Final energy consumption in household and commercial sector per capita and year
3 Number of degree days and temperature index U Dwellings in single-family houses
5 Dwellings with central heating 6 Insulation requirements
7 Dwellings with recommended insulation 8 Major appliances
9 Household electricity and specific energy consumption for different major appliances
9 .
10 Final energy consumption in the transport sector and energy consumption for different means of transport 11 Travel statistics
12 Disposable income per capita 13 Prices on energy
iH Taxes of energy
15 Household expenditures of energy 16 Energy import of total imports
IT
Environmental impacts of energy consumption 18 Energy saving support19 Building, restoration and demolition 20 Budgets of department of energy
The reworking of the statistical material has made it possible to take away some differences in definitions of statistical items and, thus, make the degree of comparability higher. But work in this direction has not progressed far - differing definitions and collection practices between countries are still reflected in the time series. The comparability is because of this limited in several aspects. The comparisons we actually make on the basis of these statistics are therefore to be interpreted as preliminary;
they are sometimes, and even without our pointing it out at every occasion, so uncertain because of possible statistical errors, that the conclusion drawn rather should have been formulated as a hypothesis. This is certainly a well-known caveat for anyone already experienced in national statistical aggregates - we wish to stress this recommendation in favour of caution, since we are adding uncertainty by basing parts of our. study on international comparisons of such aggregates.
The "other sector"-problem has been mentioned above. Its charac
ter as a residual means that elements from different sources go into it: l) dwellings, which is by far the largest part; studies on this show that in general, energy consumption in dwellings constitute between 55 and 70 per cent of total energy consumption in the "other" sector (see below); 2) agriculture and forestry, which mainly consume energy for production and storing purposes;
3) industrial buildings, consisting of energy consumption for
10.
heating production buildings, offices and store rooms. Sometimes these consumption units are "reported under the heading "industry sector"; 4) commercial buildings, meaning shops, offices and so forth, operated for commercial purposes; 5) public buildings, meaning offices and shops, run by local or central government or
some other public organization.
We have compared our data on deliveries of energy to the "other sector" in Sweden with Lee Schipper’s (Schipper, 1984 Tables 4.13 and 5) data on deliveries to the residential sector. According to this comparison the residential sector constituted 6l $ of the
"other" sector in the FRG, 54-66 $ (for different years) in France, 58-69 1° in Sweden and 56-61 % in the USA.
Bremen (1976) reports Dutch residential as almost 70 $ of "other"
sector. The corresponding figure for the UK is almost 68 % according to Leach & Desson (1976).
The "other sector" can then be seen to be composed of elements that on the one side have some common properties and on the other have unique properties. The "common" side can be clarified by the observation that it is mainly constituted of buildings. And the
"dividing lines" can be emphasized by the observation that these buildings are used for different purposes, where the energy consumption level certainly is no constant, equal for all purpo
ses. Since our study is mainly directed at the development
within the household sector, the use of "other sector" as a proxy for (a measure of) the "household sector" is certainly a weak link of strategic importance. This could mean embarrassing impli
cations, as soon as we show ambitions to judge variations with a high degree of quantitative precision. But on the whole, we have refrained from this. Our study will with a few exceptions be limited to rather broad conclusions, relevant within large inter
vals -
11
CHAPTER III ENERGY POLICY IN THE DIFFERENT COUNTRIES - A BRIEF ' OVERVIEW, WITH AN EMPHASIS ON ENERGY CONSERVATION
We will in this chapter give a trief overview of energy policy in the different countries, emphasizing energy conservation. Our overview is mainly based on seven country reports (see references) and a study of relevant energy policy literature. Some observa
tions from a compilation by Harald Müller (Müller, 1983) as a part of the CECP project have also been used. Some additional sources have been specified in the references.
These short descriptions are presented country-wise and finally we try to identify and discuss some differences and similarities between the countries. These observations are further discussed in chapter V, where also additional information about national policies is included. It should be noted that we are selective in the description of energy policies - we do not aim at any all-covering treatment, just to give a brief outline of the main direction.
Some conceptual notes
We attempt, in our descriptions, to give a notion of the intensity of the energy conservation policies. This is, in many respects, problematic. The energy policy of a country may appear strong because it is subject to intensive debate. The energy policy of another country may be more quietly accepted but nevertheless
z
far-reaching. A grip of the intensity of the energy policy re
quires information on the strictness of the codes, the amount of subsidies distributed, and the amount of resources allocated to information, etc. ■Furthermore, this kind of more detailed infor
mation should be considered in view of the intensity of (or level of) energy conservation caused by the market and other "automatic"
factors.
In some cases we make note of whether a country gives priority to energy supply or energy conservation. However, the reader should be aware of how difficult it 'is to determine what in reality is
12.
emphasised in the policy mix of any country. Most countries have had'an energy supply policy, both before and after 197^• Most countries have established a policy for energy conservation during the 1970's. In some cases, conservation policy has re
ceived much (or even exaggerated) public attention. The general attention that the conservation policy has attracted during the 1970's does not in itself imply the conclusion that the new element - conservation - is more important than the established supply policy.
All countries have in this respect a combined energy policy.
There is an inherent logic in this. For any given level of demand of energy, the best solution is normally to guarantee a supply to that level - this is normally not problematical, at least not as long as the products are "normally" priced (small or no monopoly rents enter the market price) and the supply flow is stable. Only, when prices start to soar and/or the stability of the supply flow is threatened, there are stronger arguments for an expansion of the energy policy. Solutions are normally, sought in two directions, followed simultaneously. The first is to widen the supply of (non-threatened) domestic energy carriers. The second is to pull down the demand level through stimulation of conservation. These two measures influence each other in a direct way: the more successful conservation is, the less emphasis can be put on supply policy and vice versa.
When we use the term conservation to describe some elements in the policy of a certain country, we normally have in mind that cost-effective solutions are aspired. Cost-effectiveness and conservation are compatible concepts: they are even seen as simultaneous practices: conservation is taken as far as it is cost-effective - interpreted in a wide and long-term sense.
Conservation may to some mean saving even more of some production factor. Conservation to this view has additional qualities that are not usually reflected in routines for calculating costs and benefits. But we regard this use of "conservation" as too
imprecise and it will not be further pursued in our discussion.
Instead, we will use the term in the broad sense of "economizing
3.
i
with resources of any kind", which implies a use of these re
sources in the most advantageous or efficient way (see note 2).
We are thereby referring not only to energy, hut to all inputs used, like insulation materials, manpower etc. These different input factors can often he measured in monetary units, hut they can also he stated in other units.
We shall, however, use the term energy conservation in a somewhat special way, namely as a synonym to a reduced use of energy , even if it should not he cost-effective, i.e. even if it does not imply conservation in the sense we have defined it.
Oil substitution, i.e. replacing oil with some other type of energy, e.g. electricity, is not called energy conservation, unless the total amount of energy used is decreased. It should, however, he noted that this example presents one conservation process, namely conservation of oil. So, a normal substitution process contains at least one element of energy conservation in the sense that the use of at least one energy carrier is reduced.
Pricing policies
Governments formulate energy policies to correct the effects of the market mechanisms in one way or another. The case of deregulat
ion means that some previous policy mechanism is withdrawn, letting the market work without interference.
Thus one basic strategy may he to let increased world market prices he reflected in domestic prices. Price regulations, if existent, are abolished. External effects may he reflected in the price by imposition of a tax, added to the price. This strategy can he described as a policy for using market mechanisms as the basic tool.
An alternative strategy is to regulate prices, to tax or subsidize energy, to subsidize conservation measures, to regulate building design by codes etc. This alternative strategy (or "planning") is sometimes implicitly taken as the measure of energy policy am-
l U .
bitions. This is clearly misleading. A government that abolishes a system of previously existing subsidies to press market prices of energy downwards, definitely shows at least some ambition in an energy conservation policy aspect. If the concomitant price rises are thought to lead to some defined "target" level for energy consumption, no further policy measure is required. This implies that a quick glance at how many measures are put in operation to supplement (or counteract) the market mechanism, does not give sufficient basis for an estimation of the level of ambition in energy policy.
Several of the countries under study have followed the strategy of letting prices rise to market levels by abolishing earlier policies (containing subsidies). We shall note the existence of such practices in our text.
Federal Republic of Germany (FRG)
In the FRG production of energy was given high priority both before and after the Arab oil embargo. Consumption rates are set to cover not only earlier investments but also investments in new and more expensive plants, i.e. the price roughly equals long range marginal cost.
Taxes on oil have been raised, one reason being to stimulate conversion to other, preferably domestic sources. The government tries to stimulate the production of such energy carriers, e.g.
by grants to industries investing in co-generation plants.
District heating has been promoted in densely populated areas.
The federal government has supported plants in connection with district heating schemes since 1975 with about 1.2 billion DM
(Hagler et al, 1983, p 8). Besides plants for generation of heat and electricity, the development and marketing of heat-pumps have been supported. Natural gas for heat-pumps has been exempted from tax. Of total government resources allocated to research in the FRG, the share aimed at energy research has increased and reached over one third in 1979, most of it nuclear.
15.
Even though production of energy has been heavily emphasized, the German federal government has shown a considerable interest in energy conservation. The main responsibility for energy conser
vation was left to the market mechanisms, but government measures were implemented, when the markets did not seem to have adequate effects on conservation activities (Meyer-Renschhausen and
Pfaffenberger, 1982, p 18). The basic stress on the price mechanism in the conservation policy is probably reflected in the political organization: responsibilities for the conservation policy are with a special group within the department of Economic Affairs but responsibility for environmental policy is with the Department of the Interior.
The conservation policy has since 1975 operated with special grants for insulation (maximum 5,000 DM, later revised). For more ambitious investments in energy conservation technologies, grants for 25 I» of the total investment cost - though not less than 2,000 DM and not more than 20,000 DM - have been distributed. The
investor has however been given a choice: if he does not claim the grant, he has been allowed to deduct the investments - according to certain rules - from his taxable income. Conservat
ion activities in industrial plants are (financially) supported.
Also the transport sector is an object for government activities, Economic support to public transportation is an example. Tax according to engine size has been in effect since long as a
device of fiscal policy. Information about energy conservation is provided by the government.
In the residential sector thermal insulation standards have been instituted as well as standards for heating systems. Appliances are labelled with regard to their energy use. The target is that 70 % of total energy use in the households shall be processed by energy-labelled machines. Heat-pumps are financially supported..
In apartment buildings, metering of heat is now required (Colitti/
Baronti, 198l). .Maximum temperatures (20°C) are prescribed for public buildings
1 6 .
France
France has, since the second world war* "become heavily dependent on imported energy (oil, coal and gas)._Between 1960-73 energy consumption more than doubled, corresponding to a growth rate of 6 per cent a year. The percentage share covered by national resources was 62 per cent in i960, but had fallen to 24 per cent in 1973. The state government, which has nationalized the largest part of the energy industry, has put much effort into developing domestic energy since 1974. The nuclear program accelerated rapidly. The development of the nuclear program was given the highest priority.as a cure for the acute oil crisis: the plan
formulated in 1974 was that 6 reactors (1,000 MW) should be built in 1974 and 7 reactors in 1975« This rate of 6-7 new reactors per year should be kept up until I98O. The calculations that this policy was based on was that each reactor should save about 1.3 million tons of imported petroleum. In 1975, this ambitious
nuclear program was revised downwards: only 4-5 reactors per year should be built 1976-80.
For the second half of the 1970's the concentration on producing electricity in nuclear installations was relaxed. The policy started to operate with a broader scope. Recovery of heat from nuclear plants was stressed, which meant that the former stress on producing electricity was played down. New possibilities for the import of coal and gas were discussed. Prospecting for pet
roleum was started in areas where nothing had been done before, e.g. mer d'lroise (off the coast of Brittanny).
Two new agencies, dealing with new energy sources (solar and geothermic) and energy conservation, were set up, but it took some years before they had gained significant importance, mainly because of too small a budget.
The new French energy policy, established in 1981 by the Mitterand government, has meant a change of emphasis. The nuclear program has been revised downwards slightly. The tax on heating oil has been raised. France has embarked on a vigorous program for re
1 7 -
search and development of solar energy. There is instead jnore emphasis on coal, natural gas and new sources as well as on conservation efforts. The agencies dealing with solar, co-gene- ration and conservation have "been merged into Agence Franqaise pour la Maitrise de 1'Energie (AEME) which has developed into an important public authority (Carmoy, 1982).
The consumption of fuel in the industrial sector is controlled in large plants and heat recovery is promoted. Economic support is given to e.g. insulation measures and installation of temperature controls. Research is directed at heat pumps, industrial processes etc.
In the transport sector speed limits have been improved and diesel engines in cars are encouraged by tax incentives. Propa
ganda campaigns to reduce gasoline consumption have been launched.
Investments in public transport are supported.
Conservation policy instruments aimed at the residential sector were implemented shortly after the Arab oil embargo. Because of lack of funding the measures used during the first years were mainly confined to information programs, stricter codes for insulation and heating systems. The incentive for conservation, introduced in 1975, was tax deductions for conservation measures to a maximum of 7,000 FF plus 1,000 FF for every person living in the dwelling. From 1979 these incentives, in the form of tax relief, favorable loans etc have been raised for residential as well as for other types of buildings.
In the energy plan adopted in 1981 energy conservation is stressed even more. Government funds to promote energy conservation were raised to over 3 billion FF in 1982 (Hagler et al, 1983). Hot water metering has been introduced. Also, informational programmes have been increased (Colitti/Baronti, 1981).
18.
Greece
Greece is heavily dependent on imported oil products. The energy policy during the 1970's (e.g. the 1977 energy policy statement by the National Energy Council of the .Ministry of Coordination) was oriented toward decreasing the rate of growth of energy consumption in relation to the growth of national income. The plan specified several means of which solar heating and "coordi
nated conservation", i.e. avoidance of wasteful p r a c t i c e s r a n k e d the highest. Other means were waste heat recovery, investments in insulation measures, and heat pumps. The activities of the government were restricted to consumer information campaigns, incentives for energy conservation, and a legal framework to • promote industrial investments in energy intensive units.
Greece has changed price policies for electricity during the 1970's to exploit the conservation potential within a "correct"
pricing structure. The aim has been set as a movement towards charging the long-run marginal cost - instead of average cost -
for producing electricity. This has meant two things: l) elec
tricity prices have been increased towards short-run marginal cost; 2) an inverted block rate structure has been introduced, meaning higher costs for successively higher consumption levels.
This block rate stands in contrast to most other countries. (Some small revisions in the direction has also been made in France and the Netherlands.)
The new Greek, socialist government, that came to power in late 1982 has changed the energy policy, stressing a substantially increased supply of energy, one reason being that the government expects an increasing energy/GNP-ratio, due to progressing in
dustrialization. Domestic energy sources are given a higher priority. An extensive program to develop and implement solar power and the lignite reserves has- been launched.
Energy conservation has been given a lower priority than produc
tion. Still, a target of a 15 % reduction of energy consumption in the household sector was set. Severe environmental problems
1 9 -
have been a consideration in this respect. Several measures have been instituted. Mandatory energy codes are in effect for.new buildings and under preparation for existing buildings. Tax incentives are used to stimulate conservation investments in the residential and commercial sectors. Information campaigns and training programs are part of the policy. Mandatory efficiency labelling of appliances are under preparation (IEA, 1981).
The Netherlands
The Netherlands is since the early i960's an energy-producing country, heavily dependent on natural gas for both industrial use and in the households. However, the heavy exploitation has led to a need to decrease exports, to promote diversification of energy sources and to promote energy conservation, so that gas will be available also in the long run, i.e. after the turn of the century
(Evans, 198l).
A general measure has been to adapt gas prices to the market value of oil. More specifically, diversification is implemented primarily by efforts to reintroduce coal for generating electricity and, in the long run, by introducing renewable sources. Research programs have been set up. Nuclear power is still an open question.
An ambitious insulation program has been started, aiming at a 60 $ reduction of energy for space heating to the year 2000.
Information and education campaigns are run. In the residential and commercial sector mandatory building codes are imposed for new as well as existing buildings. Grants and loans to support conservation investments were introduced in 1978 and energy efficiency labelling of appliances is under preparation (IEA, 1981).
The Dutch National Insulation Program went into operation in July, 1978. The aim for this program was set to insulate 2.5 million dwellings in the Netherlands until 1990. Subsidies of 15 per cent for double glazing and 25 per cent for other types of
20.
insulation were introduced. The maximum sum of subsidies for each dwelling was set at DF1 1,250:-. If every dwelling should apply for such subsidies, total government cost for the program would be around DF1 1.3 billions.
Sweden
Sweden has since long been heavily dependent on imported fuels.
Imported coal for heating and industrial processes has, during the 1950's and 1960's been substituted by imported oil. Conversion from oil to other energy sources (mainly domestic) is one corner
stone of the national energy policy, conservation is another.
Higher taxes on oil have been imposed. Other fuels carry a smaller tax burden.
Electricity, earlier almost exclusively produced in hydro-elect
ric power plants is now to 30-HO 1» generated in nuclear power plants. According to a referendum and a parliament decision, the 12 nucelar reactors shall be shut down by the year 2010. One way of preparing for alternative generation of electricity is co
generation plants, delivering hot water to district heating systems. District heating is strongly supported by the present social-democratic government.
Following the oil embargo in 1973/7^» the national government introduced measures to promote energy conservation in 197^- These have been revised and supplemented several times since then.
In the industrial sector investments in conservation measures as well as in conversion of processes from oil to coal, wood, waste heat or electricity is supported by the government.
The transport sector is hardly subject to government conservation programs, apart from a tax on gasoline. Public transport has received support since long, one reason being energy conservation.
Loans and grants to support energy conservation measures in existing buildings were introduced in 197^- Even though the rules
21.
have "been changed several times, the major direction of the financial support remains the same.
The energy codes were revised in 1977 concerning insulation, tightness, ventilation, heat exchangers etc. In 19Ö0 the codes were changed again, introducing considerably stricter require
ments for new houses that use electric heating.
Propaganda campaigns were started a decade ago and local advisory services were established on a large scale around 1978-79• Even though the initiatives and the money come from the national government, the implementation of the various policy measures is the responsibility of the 280 municipal authorities.
The United Kingdom (UK)
Being an energy-producing country, the "oil crisis" has not hit the UK as hard as other countries. The traditional dependence on coal in the United Kingdom has been succeeded by a "four fuel economy", i.e. a dependence on coal, nuclear power, oil and, during later years, natural gas from the North Sea.
Since 1979» 'the corner-stone of the energy policy of the conserv
ative government has been the market pricing of all forms of energy, with prices related to world market prices. Petroleum taxes were raised in 1981. However, the national government also has shown an interest in energy conservation, but it has not used a wide variety of regulations for energy consumption in buildings It has been reluctant to appropriate money for subsidies to
energy conservation (Mason/Shaw, 1982).
There has been a tendency in the control of nationalized energy industries to make their operations more market oriented and effective by ways of a changed price structure and changing other conditions (Heald, 1981).
To promote energy conservation in industries, voluntary targets have been set up and tax incentives are given. Government in
22.
formation and research is directed towards energy conservation in the industrial sector.
Several measures have been introduced to curb the consumption of gasoline in cars. In addition, subsidies are granted to invest
ments in public transport.
Energy prices in the residential sector changed only about 10- 15 $ during the 19T0's. (in 1980-81 prices rose more.) The eco
nomic incentives to save or to change consumption patterns therefore were small. Even though awareness of the energy issue seems to have been spread, not much was done to conserve energy spontaneously. Also in the industrial sector, conservation has been limited (Ray/Morel, 1982).
Conservation policy aimed at the residential sector has included mandatory codes for new buildings and grants for improved insu
lation of existing buildings. However, the government subsidies have been limited and, during later years, decreasing. Demonstra
tion schemes have been in operation since 1978. Besides informa
tional pamphlets training programs aimed at home insulation have been run (Colitti/Baronti, 1981).
For appliances etc. energy labelling and type approval became compulsory in 1981.
The United States (USA)
In the USA, which has the highest energy use per GHP-unit of all countries in our study, laws aiming at energy conservation were passed every year after the Arab oil embargo. An ambitious energy policy was launched by the Carter regime. An energy department was given the responsibility for supply issues as well as con
servation in 1977-
The Reagan government has radically changed the American energy policy. The earlier federal emphasis on renewables and on con-
23.
servation, has been shifted to an emphasis on traditional and nuclear energy sources. Conservation practices have largely been left to the market forces.
In the industrial sector tax credits have been given to energy conservation equipment. In addition, informational and advisory programs have been in operation. Research directed at heat pumps, waste heat recovery and energy conservation in industrial pro
cesses has been supported.
To improve the energy efficiency of private transportation, new cars are subject to fuel economy requirements and mandatory
energy labelling. The emphasis of government investments has been shifted somewhat from highways to public transport.
To the residential sector large scale government subsidies were directed both by federal and state authorities, often in the form of tax credits (i.e. in effect grants). Special grants of up to
$ 800 have been directed to low-income families, to promote weatherization. Loan programs have also been run in many states.
Energy audits and advisory services have been common, as well as more general information efforts. In many states the public utilities have been heavily engaged in promoting energy conser
vation, thus reducing the need to invest in expensive production facilities.
Mandatory building codes are state matters and do not exist on a national level. To promote more efficient use of energy in homes, efficiency standards for home appliances have been instituted (Colitti/Baronti, 1981) .
Some general tendencies
A dominating feature in the Western countries after the second world war has been an increasing consumption of.energy and an increasing dependence on oil. Before the oil embargo of 1973/7^
2k.
there was little effort on part of the government authorities to regulate or influence the demand, for energy (Colitti/Baronti, 1981).
During the last ten years the governments have developed energy policies in different ways focussed both at the supply side and at the demand side, i.e. energy conservation.
According to Muller's analysis the great interest for energy conservation, or at least for conservation policy, that was
sparked off by the OPEC oil embargo in 1973_7k seems to have been succeeded in the early 1980's by a period of less interest and intensity in most countries. The conservation "movement" has had a loss of momentum depending on many things, among them lack of institutional and budgetary weight and tradition. There are even signs of complacency i.e. decreasing awareness and involvement.
There are, maybe as a consequence of these tendencies, few efforts to change the "life-style" of people i.e. to induce people to radically change the structure of their consumption towards less energy (and generally resource) intensive ways of living. Instead, the basic aim seems to be normal cost-effective
ness (Müller, 1983), implying that there is no longer any conservation goals with special priority in the policy of the governments under study.
There are a couple of notable exceptions to these perceived tendencies. French energy conservation has been "developing some institutional and budgetary momentum" . (Müller, 19Ö3, page 30), culminating in the energy policy adopted in 1981. Another excep
tion is Sweden, where energy conservation still is an important part of the energy policy (conversion from oil to other sources is another). Also, the Netherlands is - at least partly - an exception.
Whether conservation of energy in households actually has fallen off, is something we will discuss in the next chapter by looking at statistics. Based on the general tendencies related above we might expect (assuming th'at policy has effects) effects of con-
2 5 .
servation policies in the years after 1973 "but maybe a levelling off (decreased, conservation effects) at the end of the 1970's.
For France and Sweden, continued effects, of conservation policy might he expected. If we do not find effects of these kinds it may he because effects are hard to distinguish, because spontaneous conservation is overshadowing official policy or maybe because the time lag is longer than expected.
A general tendency has been to promote a conversion from oil to other sources of energy. However, during later years decisions concerning the choice of type of energy have been increasingly left to the market forces. Production of energy is given high priority in France, the FRG, Greece, the Netherlands and the USA. But energy conservation is everywhere stated as a goal with priority.
Greece has given priority to domestic energy, and so has Sweden.
In France, heavy emphasis has been laid on the nuclear program and on solar energy. In the USA the Reagan administration has pursued Carter's policy to abolish the regulation of oil prices, making price increases possible. Regulations of gas prices are still in effect, causing prices to be below market level. In the UK, tax subsidies for gas consumption have been abolished in 1980-81.
Sweden is since long taxing oil, gasoline and electricity.
Domestic sources such as peat, waste and wood are given a more favorable tax treatment in order to support conversion away from oil. In Sweden, district heating is supported, especially by the new social democratic government (from 1982).
I
2 7 .
CHAPTER IV. SOME TRENDS IN THE DIFFERENT COUNTRIES
In this chapter, we shall continue the mainly descriptive approach from chapter III. The difference is the shift in
perspective: we shall try to present actual developments in the national (and international) energy and energy-related markets.
Our central perspective will "be to present data of relevance for the household sector. In the next chapter we will turn to a discussion of the material, presented in chapters III and IV.
As discussed in chapter II there are several problems in connect
ion with the adjustment of the household sector to the develop
ment in the 1970’s. Of these, one problem of information is fundamental: the national statistical bureaus present data for what they sometimes call "the building sector" or "other sector".
This means, that household energy use in many countries is lumped together with agriculture and forestry, public and commercial buildings, sometimes also industrial buildings. Since energy intensities are quite different for dwelling purposes, service
(public, commercial) and production and stock-piling (industrial buildings), the problem with the aggregate "building sector" is troublesome for analytical purposes. These mentioned components of the "building sector" react in different ways, with different timing and with different strength to changes in energy supply, energy prices and energy policy measures.
The picture we will try to paint will have the following details.
First, we present some "structural" information on energy use, given as per-capita levels of energy consumption, ratio of use between the main sectors and some data on technical facilities (appliances in the households). Secondly, we present relevant changes in energy consumption, prices and general economic acti
vity. Added to these is a discussion on business cycles, heating technology and conversions between energy carriers. At the end of this chapter, some trends in construction activity are presented and commented. Data on construction activity is limited to the housing sector.
2 8 .
THE GENERAL STUCTURE OF ENERGY USE
There is a wide variety in the level of energy use in the dif
ferent countries. The variation is reflected in table 1, which states over-all consumption per capita.. The level is given for each country as a rounded average for the period 1970-80.
Table U-l. Annual total energy consumption per capita 1970-80 (GJ/year)
FRG France Greece Netherlands Sweden UK USA
115 115 50 170 185 110 250
The extreme country on the low-use side is Greece and the extreme on the high-use side is the USA. Four countries are within the interval llO-lJO GJ/capita and year, with Sweden somewhat above.
At first glance, the general energy demand seems to be correlated to the level of economic development. If industry and transports are eliminated from the comparison, the differences should be narrowed down, since variations in industrial level and ability to transport probably explains most of the difference in economic level. The "remaining" sector consists mainly of buildings and is dominated by dwellings. The comparison concerning energy con
sumption per capita in the "other sector" is given in figure 1, which also shows the development during the 1970's.
2 9 .
Figure 1. Annual energy consumption per capita 1970-80 in the
"other sector", i.e. mainly buildings (in GJ/year)
The result is, that the large spread remains after omitting
industry and transports. This would not he the case, if the level of "industrialism" would cause energy consumption to vary. But judging from calculations of the coefficients of variation, the differences are about the same, when the "other sector" is taken alone. Additional factors, besides the role of "industrialism" or
"production level", might then be necessary for a full explanat
ion of the country variations..
Another important development, that might explain the remaining large spread among the countries i s , that the household sector energy consumption may vary along with variations in the produ
cing sectors (industry and transport). One element of this kind
30.
could, be the "industrialization" of home work, connected with the level of economic welfare. This special type of "industriali
zation" is characterized by the installation of energy-consuming machines in the households, meaning a higher level of energy use, the more "industrialism" there i s . In figures 2 and 3 we show the development of possession of freezers and clothes washers during the 1970's. Other appliances also show substantial growth rates.
Figure 2. Household possession of freezers, 1970-81 (per cent of all households)
31.
Figure 3. Household possession of washing mashines (for clothes) 1970-81 (per cent of all households)
P e r cent
One impression is, that there has been a trend towards "indust
rialization of home work" in the developed countries under study The ratio possessing household machines is high and the annual growth - measured as the growth of a ratio of total households - of all machines is high, in general higher than the growth of household income.
The structure of energy use, divided between industry, trans
ports, and "other sector" is represented in table 4-2. The fi
gures are stated as percentage shares of the total energy con
sumption for respective years.
32.
Table b-2. Structure of energy use, year's consumption)
1970-80 (per cent of
FRG 1970
Industry 39
Transports 17
Other 44
1980 3b 22 44
France 1970 42 20 38
1980 37 22 4l
Greece 1970 4l 28 31
1980 42 27 31
Netherlands 1973 64 12 24
1980 62 13 25
Sweden 1970 43 15 42
1980 39 18 43
UK 1972 48 24 28
1980 39 29 32
USA 1973 33 32 35
1980 35 34 31
It is possible to see a common, rather stable structure for a majority of the countries: industry uses on the average around 40 per cent, transports 20 per cent and the other sector 40 per cent. France, Sweden and FRG are described rather well by this pattern. The low industry/high transport share for FRG in 1980 is a temporary phenomenon maybe partly caused by statistical collect ion procedures. Great Britain can also be classified accordingly, even if transports have a somewhat higher stable share and build
ings a somewhat lower. If a statistical correction is made for UK to the effect that public buildings are added, the share of the building sector will come close to 40 per cent (cf. Mason/Shaw, 1982).
However, there are exceptions to the rule of 40-20-40. The Netherlands display the most deviating structure with a dist
ribution of (about) 60-15-25. The high "industry" share may be explained by the high concentration of energy-intensive indust
rial production, especially oil refineries. However, statistical errors may explain part of these deriating figures for the
33 =
Netherlands. USA shows a distribution of one third for each sector, which is an uncommonly high transport sector share.
Greece has a higher share of transports and a lower of "buildings", namely 27-31. Some of this variation can probably be explained by differences in climate, geography and level of general economic development.
The difference in climate can be measured by the so-called
degree-day index. Our data base allows a comparison of degreedays between southern and northern Europe, e.g. France and Sweden. The
"normal" year for France (Paris region) contains 2,790 degree days and the "normal" year for Sweden (Stockholm region) 3,840 degree days, i.e. a climate difference of 38 per cent as a
"standard" (see note 3).
The climatic variation is probably coupled to differences in building quality. It is a fair guess, that buildings in a more severe climate tend to be more efficient in a heating sense. This observation is confirmed by comparisons of (mandatory) k-values for roof, floor and wall in new buildings in France and Sweden.
This value was 0.5-1.35 for France in the late 1970's. For
Sweden, the corresponding figure was 0.17-0.30, i.e. significant
ly lower values. The observation also holds for historical compa
risons of k-values, which implies a significantly more efficient - in the heating sense - housing stock in Sweden than in France.
! DEVELOPMENT OF ENERGY USE 1970-00
Energy consumption change - general
The dramatic changes on the energy markets during the 1970's have caused variations in energy consumption patterns in the countries under study, mainly in the level of consumption of different
energy carriers and in "conservation" of energy. On the whole, the development of the main sectors are roughly parallel, judging from the data presented. To discuss the variations it seems necessary to divide the 1970's in three periods, each characterized by some dominant feature. The first period, 1970-73» is a period when
