Munich Personal RePEc Archive
Determinants of course completions in vocational education and training:
Evidence from Australia
Fieger, Peter
University of New England
15 June 2015
Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/68244/
MPRA Paper No. 68244, posted 08 Dec 2015 09:24 UTC
Determinantsofcoursecompletionsin vocationaleducation and training:Evidencefrom Australia
Abstract
Completion rates in Australian vocationaleducation and training(VET)arenotoriouslylow.While thereareconventionalreasonssuch as issues with course,health,institutionalfactors,financialand family problemsand dissatisfaction with thetrainingexperience,moreVET specificexplanations haveincluded thatstudentsmaydiscontinuetheirstudies when theyhaveobtained thespecificskills theywereseekingortheyhavegained employment.This presentstudyseekstoexaminewhetherthe originalintention ofstudentsatthetimeofenrollmentalongwith satisfaction and thebenefitthat could be obtained from completion have any bearing on completion patterns.We modelthe probabilityofintendingtocompletefrom the2011StudentIntentionsSurveyand theperform an out ofsampleprediction ofstudents'intention on respondentstothe2011StudentOutcomes Survey. Subsequentlya logisticregression modelpredictingactualcompletion is developed utilisingstudent intentions,various componentsofsatisfaction,completion pay-offsand some demographicand educationalvariables..Main findingsofthis studyincludethatwhilestudents'initialintentionsto completeincreaseactualcompletion probabilities,theoverwhelmingdeterminantsofcompletion are high annualhoursofenrollmentand theenrollmentin higherVET qualifications.Furthermore,the benefitstocompletion and satisfaction with thetrainingplayonlyminorroles in shapingcompletion patterns.This study contributes totheexistingbody ofknowledgeaboutcompletionsin VET by includingtheoriginalcompletion intention ofstudentsin theexamination ofcompletion patterns.
Introduction
In recentyearstherehasbeen an increased policyfocuson qualification completionsin both VET and highereducation sectorsin Australia.Governmentsarekeen to know theextentto which studentscompletethequalificationsorstudiestheycommencebecausetheywantto ensure adequateaccountabilityfortheexpenditureofanypublictrainingfundsthatmayhavebeen used.
In theuniversitysectorithaslongbeen recognised thatthecompletion ofan undergraduatedegree impartssignificantsocialand economicbenefitson studentsand societyasawhole(Borland,2002; James,2001;Marks,2007).Asaconsequenceoftheperceived and realbenefitsofobtaininga universitydegree,completion rateshavebeen recorded atarelativelyhigh levelof80%,alongwith an improvingtrend (ACER,2011).Completionsin vocationaleducation and training(VET)1on the 1 Completion ratein theVET sectorasused in thepaperrefersexclusivelyto coursecompletion rate,unlessotherwisespecified.
Therearealso subjectcompletion rates,which referto thecompletion ofindividualsubjects.Thesecompletion ratesdo notexhibit thesamedefinition problem ascoursecompletion rates,and arecalculated simplyby(subjectscompleted divided bysubjects commenced)*100.
otherhand havebeen known to besubstantiallylowerthan in theuniversitysector.A varietyof reasonshavebeen cited to accountforthelow VET completionsin Australia,includingproblems with employmentand course,health and chanceevents,institutionalfactors,and financialand familyproblems(Longetal.1995).Otherauthorsconcluded from theanalysisoftheEnglish higher education system thatwrongchoiceoffield ofstudy,financialdifficultyand dissatisfaction with the trainingexperience(Yorkeetal.,1997),aswellasinabilityto copewith thetrainingdemands,social dissatisfaction and dissatisfaction with theinstitutionalenvironmentcontributeto significantnon- completion (Yorke,1999).
Onesubstantialdissimilaritybetween thecompletion ofaqualification (ordegree)in theuniversity and VET sectorcontextappearsto betheperception ofnon-completion.In theuniversitysector non-completion isoften (butnotalways)associated with failure,whilein theVET sectoritis accepted thatnon-completion frequentlymeansthatstudentshaveachieved thespecifictraining goalwhich prompted them to enrollin aparticularprogram (McInnesetal.,2000;Karmel&
Nguyen,2006;Millsetal.,2012).Forinstance,aplumbermayenrollin acertain subjectto acquire theskillsinvolvinganew techniquewithouttheintention ofgainingcredittoward aqualification.
Cohen and Brawer(1996)commented thatto vocationalstudentswho areseekingajob,
completingtheirtrainingbecomesirrelevantassoon asajob becomesavailable.Thereisthusless negativestigmaattached to categoriessuch as‘non-completer’or‘dropout’.This,in addition to the above-mentioned impediments,mayaccountfortheconsiderabledifferencesin completion rates and additionallynecessitatescaution when attemptingto directlycomparecompletion rates between both sectors,asthesenumbersneed to beinterpreted differently.
An additionalissuein assessingthedifferencein completion ratesbetween theuniversityand VET sectoristhattherehasbeen somecontroversyaboutthewayin which completion ratesare
determined in thevocationalsystem.Atthecurrentpointin timethereisno uniquestudent identifierand theconceptofcommencementofaqualification isnotverywelldefined in theVET system (Mark& Karmel,2010).Completion ratescan consequentlynotbecalculated in a
straightforward manner.In theirpaper,Markand Karmelthereforeused amodelingtechniquein an attemptto derivecompletion ratesin Australian vocationaleducation.Thisapproach enabled them to estimatecompletion ratesforstudentscommencingin 2005and yielded an overall completion rateof27.1%,with significantvariation between severalcategoriesofstudents(for example,full-time,part-time,agegroups,courselevel).Theresultofthisanalysishasbeen metwith someskepticism.Ross(2011)cited variousindustryfigureswho pointed to substantiallyhigher completion ratesin selected fields.Forinstance,an independentanalysisbyServiceSkillsAustralia (SSA)yielded completion ratessubstantiallyhigherthan thefigurespublished byMarkand Karmel.Reasonscited asresponsibleforthediscrepanciesweretemporarywithdrawalssuch asfor pregnancy,illness,relocation etc.which werenotaccounted forin theMarkand Karmelstudy.The authorsoftheoriginalstudydismissed theseobjectionsand suggested thattheSSA studyrelied on cherry-picked trainingprovidersand on too shortaperiod ofanalysis(Ross,2011).Despitethese somewhatconflictingresearch resultswith respectto actualcompletion figures,thereisageneral
perception thatAustralian VET completion ratesarelow (Mark& Karmel,2010;Azemikhah, 2009;Snell& Hart,2007).
In orderto investigatetheextentto which studentsdo commencetheirVET studieswith theaim ofnotcompletingthem,theAustralian NationalCentreforVocationalEducation Research (NCVER)designed and conducted theStudentIntentionsSurvey(SIS)in 2011(NCVER,2011). Thissurveywasintended to canvasstudents’completion intentionsalongwith thecollection of socialand educationaldata.Thesurprisingmain resultofthissurveywasthatasurprisinglyhigh percentageofstudents(93%)setoutto completetheirqualification.Whilethisfiguremayhave been somewhatinflated (itappearsreasonableto speculatethatsomestudentsmaynothavebeen willingto divulgetheirtrueintentionsas,forinstance,governmentfundingmayhavedepended on theirdeclared aim to completeaprescribed courseofstudy),itisofinterestto explorethe
unexpected largedisparitybetween intended and actualcompletions.
Thepurposeofthisstudyisthusto exploresomequestionsthatsurround issuesaboutcompletion in Australian vocationaleducation.Specifically,therelationship between studentsatisfaction,the benefitsto completion,studentage,qualification leveland enrollmenthours,an wellasthe intention to completeand actualcompletion isinvestigated.Historically,analysesofcompletion patternsin theAustralian VET sectorhavefocused on uncoveringdeterminantsofcompletion in VET withouttakingtheoriginalintention ofstudentsinto account.In thisstudywewilladdress thisproblem byintegratingintention information gathered from the2011StudentIntention Surveyinto the2011StudentOutcomesSurveyto enableusto makeinferenceson therelationship between theintention to complete,studentage,qualification levelofenrollment,student
satisfaction,thebenefitsto completion,and actualcompletion.
Dataand datapreparation
Thisstudymakesuseoftwo surveysconducted in 2011:TheStudentOutcomesSurvey(SOS)and theStudentIntentionsSurvey(SIS).TheSOSisan annualsurveythatfocuseson student
outcomeswith VET and also collectsdataon arangeofpersonaland trainingcharacteristics,aswell asstudentsatisfaction and related measures.TheSISwasaone-offsurveyin 2011aimed at
measuringstudents’intentionsin respectto theirplansto completethecoursetheywereenrolled in.TheSOS,designed to enableestimatesofkeyindicatorsattheinstitution levelin 2011,achieved about110,000 responsesoutofabout300,000 sampled students.TheSISfeatured amuch smaller received responseof11,000 outofasampleof23,000 students,asthissurveywasdesigned to providestatisticallymeaningfulestimatesatthenationallevelonly(NCVER,2011).Whileboth surveysgathered asimilarlevelofadministrative,demographicand educationalstudent
background data,theSISlimited theinformation thatwascollected to issuessurroundingthe willingnessto complete,knowledgeaboutthetrainingatenrollmentand attitudestoward the trainingand vocationaleducation.
Thestudypresented heredefinescompletion based on theclassification ofgraduatesand subject completersin theSOS,wheregraduatesarestudentswho havecompleted aVET qualification and subjectcompletershavesuccessfullycompleted partofacourse(forexample,atleastonesubject) withoutcompletingaqualification and who haveleftthevocationaleducation and trainingsystem bythetimethesurveywasundertaken (NCVER,2011a).Thebenefitofutilisingthiscategorisation wasthatalargeamountofdatawasreadilyavailableforanalysisand thatthecategorisation into thesetwo groupswaslargelyuncontroversialand accepted in theVET community.Theprimary drawbackofthisapproach wasthatitomitted thosestudentswho enrolled butdid notcompletea singlesubject.However,with subjectcompletion ratesofaround 90%,itwasassumed thatthis group ofstudentswould haveaccounted foronlyaverysmallpercentageofnon-completing students.Furthermore,thetotalabsenceofanydataforthistypeofstudentatthenationallevel would havemadetheirinclusion in anyanalysisproblematic.
Thisanalysisisaimed specificallyathow thebenefitto completion,theintention to complete, studentsatisfaction,severaldemographicand educationalvariables,and actualcompletion are related.Thebenefitto completion forindividualstudentswasdetermined usingSOSDataand employingthemethodologydescribed in Karmeland Fieger(2012).Thederivation ofthebenefitof completion described therein isbased on two identicalmodelsmodelingthebenefitvariableof interest(forinstance'employmentaftertraining')asafunction ofanumberofpredictors,such as sex,agegroup,location,field ofeducation,qualification level,studystatus,socio economicstatus, employmentstatusbeforetraining,and prioreducation.Thefirstmodelisrun onlyovergraduates and then predictstheoutcomeforgraduatesand modulecompleters.Thesecond,identicalmodel isrun oversubjectcompletersand then predictstheoutcomesoversubjectcompletersand
graduates.Asaresult,each observation hastwo predicted scores,oneforthecompletion (graduate) and oneforthenon-completion scenario (subjectcompleter).Theratio ofthesetwo scoresdefines then theindividualcompletion benefit.Usingtheexampleofthe'employmentaftertraining' outcomevariable,whereagiven individualmighthaveaprobabilityof0.8ofbeingemployed after trainingasacompleter,and aprobabilityof0.7asanon-completer,thiswould implya
0.8/0.7=1.14 or14% benefitto completion forthisparticularindividual.Theseindividualbenefits to completion can then beaggregated to provideand overallmeasureofthecompletion benefit.We created fournew variables,containingthetertilesofthebenefitofcompletion in respectto
employmentaftertraining,salary,occupationalstatus,and furtherstudy.Ascan beseen in table1, thereissignificantvariabilityin completion benefitsbetween thevariousoutcomes.Whilethereisa strongcompletion benefitin termsoffurtherstudy(e.g.acompleteris125% morelikelyto bein furtherstudythan anon-completer)and also employmentaftertrainingand improved
employmentconditions(25%),thebenefitto completion in termsofsalaryand occupationalstatus areratherdiminutive.
Table1Completion benefits
AsthesamplesforSISand SOSweredrawn from two differentpopulationsand thuscontained differentindividualstudents,amethod wasdevised which allowed thetransferralofthe
information abouttheintention to completethatwasgained from theSISto theSOSwhich contained theinformation aboutactualcompletion.Thiswasachieved in thefollowingway:First, usingtheSIS,amodelwasdeveloped thatestimated theintention to complete(table2).This modelhad fairlysubstantialexplanatorypowerasindicated byapseudo r-squared of0.39.Notable findingsfrom thismodelofintention to completeincludeahigherpropensityoffemalesto completecompared to males,thosewith aprioryear12education overallotherprioreducation levels,and thosestudyingforemploymentand furtherstudyreasonsoverpersonalreasons. Interestingly,thosecurrentlyin employmentarelesslikelyto intentto completeand thosein remotelocationsarewerelikelyto completethan thosein urban and regionalsettings.
Studentsatisfaction hasbeen identified asapredictorofcompletion outcomesin previousstudies (Snell& Hart,2008;McInnesetal.2000;Yorkeetal.,1997;Scottetal.,1996).Wehypothesised that thisinclination maybealso existin ourpresentstudy.Mean satisfaction compositescoresof studentsatisfaction with teaching,assessment,and generallearningfrom thestudentoutcomes surveywereused and threenew variablescontainingthetertilesofthesesatisfaction scoreswere generated.
Table2Intention to complete
In addition to thesemeasures,anumberofnew variableswerederived from administrativedata:an enrollmenthoursvariablewascreated consistingof5categories:1-30 hours,31-60 hours,61-120 hours,121-400 hours,and 400+ hours;athreecategoryqualification levelvariableindicating certificateI/II,certificateIII/IV,and Diplomaorhigher,and avariablecontainingtheageof individualrespondents.
Results
Beforeweconducted ourmain analysisweundertookan examination ofourpredictorvariablesin respectto potentialinteractionsbetween ourpredictorvariableswhen modelingtheprobabilityof completion.Thisanalysisrevealed foursubstantialinteractionsbetween qualification leveland age, qualification leveland intention to complete,qualification leveland courseenrollmenthours,and ageand enrollmenthours.Thesefourinteraction termswereadded to thelogisticcompletion modelalongwith theotherpredictors.Theresultingcoefficientsfrom thisanalysiscan befound in table3.
Table3Probabilityto completethetraining
Table3containscoefficients,theirstandard errorsand significanceaswellasthemargin forthebase categoryofcategoricalvariablesand thepredictivemarginsforthecomparison categories.The overallstatisticsofourcompletion modelindicatesignificantpoweroftheindependentvariablesto
predictthecompletion outcome.Likelihood ratio chi-squared valueof36923(p<0.001)and a pseudo R-squared of0.6 suggestareasonableexplanatorycapacityofthemodel.
Thefirstnotableresultofthismodelisthatsatisfaction with teachingand assessmenthasonly negligibleimpacton completionsin VET.Whilesatisfaction with teachingmakesno significant differenceacrossallthreetertilesto completion outcomesatall,thetwo uppertertilesof
satisfaction with assessmentimplyamildlyincreased propensityto completebyaboutone percentagepoint.Increased satisfaction with thegenerallearningexperienceon theotherhand confersan increased completion probabilityofabout2percentagepointsforthemiddletertileand 3percentagepointfortheuppertertilecompared to thelowesttertile.
Allfourpayoffvariablesrevealsignificantdifferencesbetween theirbasetertileand highertertilesin respectto completion,although forthebenefitto employment,salary,and occupationalstatus, although theirimpactislimited to aboutonepercentagepointdifferencein termsofcompletion outcomes.Onlythevariablecontainingthebenefitto completion in termsoffurtherstudyhasa morepronounced effecton completion asindicated byapredictivemargin ofonepercentagepoint increasein completion probabilitybetween tertile2and 1and a3percentagepointincreasebetween tertile3and 1.
Thevariablesfornumberofcoursehoursenrolled,age,qualification leveland probabilityof intention to completewereallentered also aspartofinteraction effects.Thecoefficientsforthese variablesthushaveto beseen in thecontextoftheseinteractions.Wehavegraphed thepredictive marginsfortheseinteraction effectsforbettervisualrepresentation.IN allgraphsweadded a referencelineat0.71,which representstheoverallpredictivemargin ofcompletion.
Thefirstinteraction analysed in respectto completion isbetween thequalification leveland studentage.Thepredictivemarginshavebeen calculated and aregraphed in figure1
Figure1Interaction Age*Qualification level
From figure1itisquiteclearthatincreasingagegenerallyindicatesalowerprobabilityto complete. Attheageof15Studentsenrolled in CertificateI/IIcourseshavethelowestlikelihood of
completion,whereasstudentsenrolled in CertificateIII/IV aswellasDiplomasand higherhavea significantlyhigherpropensityofabout10 percentagepointsto complete.Interestingly,with increasingagetheprobabilityto completedecreasesmorerapidlyforCertificateIII/IV students,so thatattheend oftheagescaletheircompletion probabilityissimilarto CertificateI/IIstudents. Thenegativeimpactofincreasingageon completion hasbeen described before(Clarkeetal.,1994), and reasonsadvanced forthisphenomenon haveincluded thehigherdemandsoffamily
circumstances,aswellasfinancialconsiderationsand and employmentrequirements(Ozgaand Sukhnandan,1997).However,thediscoverythatthiseffectismorepronounced forstudents enrolled CertificatesIII/IV representsanew finding.Itshould also bepointed outthatthesizeof thiseffectofageismuch morepronounced in thecaseofCertificateIII/IV studentsthan foranyof thevariablesdiscussed before.Thisisstilltrueeven ifonlytheagerangewith asignificantstudent population (e.g.15to 45)isconsidered.
A furthersignificantinteraction detected isbetween thequalification leveland and theintention to complete(Figure2).Whilethereappearto bedramaticdifferencesin completion probabilities
Figure2Interaction Qualification level*Intention to completed
based on qualification levelin thelowerrangesoftheprobabilityto ofintention to complete,ithas to bekeptin mind thatonlyaminusculeproportion ofthestudentpopulation isactuallypresent
atintention probabilitiesbelow 0.7.Themorepertinentconclusionsthatcan bedrawn from this graph arethusassociated with thehigherprobabilitiesoftheintention to complete.Here,itcan be seen thattheprobabilityto completesubstantiallyincreasesin alinearfashion forCertificateIII/IV and Diplomastudentsastheintention to completeincreases,whilecompletion probability
increasesonlymoderatelyforCertificateI/IIstudents.Attheend oftheintention scalewethen find CertificateIII/IV and diplomastudentssignificantlyabovetheaveragepredictivemargin of 0.71to complete,whereasCertificateI/IIstudentscan befound significantlybelow.Theoverall marginsforCertificateI/II,CertificateIII/IV and Diplomawere0.67,0.72,and 0.77respectively. Interestinglyourestimatesrevealslightlyhighercompletion probabilitiesforDiplomastudents acrosstherangeofcompletion intentionswhen compared to CertificateI/IIstudents.Thisisin contrastto Markand Karmel(2010)who showed higherprobabilitiesforCertificateIII/IV students.Thediscrepancyhoweverisminorand probablyresultingfrom differentassumptions and modelingtechniquesemployed in Markand Karmeland thepresentstudy.Both studiesarein agreementin theoveralllowestcompletion rateofCertificateI/IIstudents.
Figure3graphstheinteraction between enrollmenthoursand qualification level.Thisgraph also
Figure3Interaction Enrolmenthours*Qualification level
revealsthemain determinantofcompletions.Itisclearthatnotonlyarecompletion probabilities in thelowerquintilesofenrollmenthourswellbelow theaverageoverallmargin (0.71)butalso that therearelargedifferencesbetween thethreequalification levels.StudentsatCertificateI/IIlevels havecompletion probabilitiesoflessthan 10 percent,whereasCertificateIII/IV and Diploma
studentshaveprobabilitiesin excessof20 and 35% respectively.Enrollmenthourquintiles4 and 5 (e.g.enrollmentslargerthan 121hours/year)show invariablycompletion probabilitiesin excessof 90 percent.Itshould bekeptin mind thatin Figure3changesacrossthex-axiscan beviewed more asreflectingthepopulation asawhole,aseach oftheenrollmenthoursquintilescontainsroughly comparablenumbersofstudents.Itthusemergesthatthemain predictorofcompletion in Australian vocationaleducation isthenumberofhoursan individualstudentisenrolled in.The overallmarginsforthisvariableare0.22(1-30 hours),0.28(31-60 hours),0.48(61-120 hours),0.96 (121-400 hours),and 0.99(> 400 hours).Priorresearch hasrevealed arelationship between enrollmenthoursand completions.McGivney(1996)reported differencesin completion between part-timeand fulltimestudentin theBritish highereducation sectorin therangebetween 6 and 17 percent.In Australia,Bender(2003)analysed non-completionsofapprenticesand traineesand found completion rategapsbetween 11and 23percentbetween part-timeand full-timestudents. Finally,ourcompletion modelindicated thattheimpactofstudentageon completion probability isdependenton enrollmenthours.Wegraphed thepredictivemarginsofthisrelationship (Figure 4)
Figure4 Interaction Age*Enrolmenthours
and itbecameapparentthatwhileagedoesnotimpacton completion probabilityatenrollments>
120 hours,forstudentwith smallerenrollmenthoursincreasingageisassociated with adecreasing probabilityofcompletion
Discussion
Coursecompletionsin vocationaleducation in Australiaarenotoriouslylow.A numberofgeneric explanationshavebeen advanced forthis,includingpersonaland institutionalfactors.Increasing satisfaction with thetrainingisgenerallyseen asleadingto highercompletion rates(Poweretal., 1987;Dunn,1995).In thecontextoftheoverallresultsofthispresentstudywecould onlyfind a veryminoreffectofsatisfaction on completions.Theeffectwasgreatestforgeneralsatisfaction and thecomparison ofthefirstand third tertileofgeneralsatisfaction revealed a4.3percentagepoint increasein theprobabilityto complete.
Wealso tested thehypothesiswhetherthebenefitto completion in respectto fouroutcomes (employment,salary,occupationalstatus,and furtherstudy)wasassociated with completion outcomes.Theresultsshow thattheimpactofthebenefitto completion isverylimited,and in the areaofaonepercentimpacton completion probability.Onlythebenefitto completion in termsof furtherstudyisslightlymorepronounced with aboutathreepercentagepointincreasein
completion probabilitybetween 1stand 3rdtertileofthebenefitto completion.Theseresults showingarelativelackofimpactofthebenefitto completion on theprobabilityofcompletions weresomewhatunexpected.Two limitationsofthesepredictorvariablesshould thusbeconsidered.
First,itwould appearthatitissomehow implied thatindividualstudentsareawareofthebenefit ofcompletingtheircourseofstudy.Thismaynotnecessarilybethecaseand itcan thusnotbe assumed thatthebenefitto completion playsarolein theirdecision makingon whetherornotto complete.Secondly,thewaythevariablesindicatingthebenefitto completion areconstructed meansthattheyrepresenttheoverallbenefitto completion,ratherthan thenetbenefit.In other words,individualeconomiccoststo obtain thebenefitarenottaken into account.Thisrepresentsa shortcomingofallthebenefitvariablesand isdifficultto overcomewith presentlyavailabledata.In thefutureitmightbepossibleto addressthisviaasurveythatcollectsdataon individual'stime, effort,and financialinputinto theirtraining.
Theaffirmation oftheinitialintention to completethechosen acourseisclearlyassociated with an increased likelihood ofcompletion.Whilethisisaresultcould beexpected,priorto thecompletion oftheStudentIntentionsSurveythiscould notbeshown.Figure2displaysalargerangeof
probabilitiesofintention to completeand associated probabilitiesofcompletion.Itshould bekept in mind thattheoverwhelmingmajorityofstudentshad averyhigh probabilityofintention to completeand thatthusthemostreliablerepresentation ofprobabilitiescan befound atthehigher end oftheintention to completescale.
Ourstudyalso showed afairlystrongimpactofageand qualification levelon completions.We demonstrated increasingageasan impedimentto completion,and thiswasparticularlyso for studentsenrolled in CertificatesIII/IV.Generally,studentsenrolled in CertificatesI/IIhad significantlyworsecompletion outcomesacrossthemain enrollmentagesthan thoseenrolled in
otherqualifications.Both resultsin respectto theassociation ofageand qualification levelwith completion outcomesarewellsupported bypreviousresearch.
Themain driverofcompletion outcomesin Australian vocationaleduction identified in this research arethenumberofenrollmenthours.Whilethepriorliteraturedoesciteamoderate discrepancyin completion ratesbetween part-timeand full-timestudents,thedifferenceswehave found in thisstudyaremoresubstantial.Whilestudentsenrolled in excessof120 hours/yearhave completion ratesin excessof90 percent,allqualification levelsbelow thisnumberofenrollment hourshavesteadilydecreasingcompletion ratesastheirhoursofenrollmentsdecrease.Thosein the lowestquintileofenrollmentshourshavecompletion probabilitiesoflowerthan 10% (Certificate I/II),below 30% (CertificateII/IV),and below 40% (Diploma).
Conclusion
Thisstudyanalysed completionsand predictorsthereof.Thesepredictorsincluded student
satisfaction,thebenefitto completion,age,qualification level,enrollmenthours,and thestudent's intention to completeatthetimeofenrollmentAstherewereno dataavailablethattracked a cohortofstudentsfrom enrollmentto completion with respectto theirintentions,wehad to develop amodelthatpredicted theprobabilityofintendingto completeforthosestudentswhere weknew thecompletion outcomefrom theStudentOutcomeSurvey.Itneedsto bekeptin mind thatouranalysiswasbased on such modeled dataratherthan actualdata.
Ourmain findingwasthatcompletion issuesin theVET sectorarepredominantlyaproblem within thestudentpopulation enrolled at120 hoursorless..Theanalysisalso revealed asomewhat weakerrelationship between completion and theintention to complete,qualification level,student age,and severalinteractionsbetween thesevariables.
A surprisingresultwastherelativelysmallimpactofstudentsatisfaction.Whilethestronger magnitudeof‘general’satisfaction overcourse-related satisfaction found in earlierresearch in respectto completion outcomescould beconfirmed,itwasstillstrikingto observetherelatively low contribution ofoverallsatisfaction to thecompletion model.Itmaybepossiblethat,dueto theuniquepropertiesofthevocationaleducation system discussed earlierin thispaper(for
instance,thatasubstantialproportion ofnon-completersfailto graduatebecausetheyhavegained theskillstheysetoutto acquire,ornon-completion dueto arisingemploymentopportunities duringthetraining),satisfaction isindeed lessrelated to completion in theVET system when compared with thehighereducation sector.Furthermore,itispossiblethatthesmallcontribution ofsatisfaction to theprobabilityofcompletion maypartlyreflectdeficienciesin thewaysatisfaction wasmeasured in thevocationalsector.
References
ACER (2011).Universityretention and completion rates haveimproved.Mediarelease,retrieved July 1,2014,<http://www.acer.edu.au/media/article/university-retention-and-completion- rates-have-improved>.
Azemikhah,H (2009).‘Aimingatthehighercompletion rates in VET’.Paperpresented at12th Australian VocationalEducation and TrainingResearch Association (AVETRA) Conference.Sydney.Retrieved May2013from <http://www.avetra.org.au/papers- 2009/papers/79.00.pdf>.
Bender,A.(2003,April).Factorsinfluencingcompletionsin Australia'sapprenticeshipsystem.In ChangingFaceofVETthe6th Australian VET Research Association (AVETRA) Conference,Sydney(pp.9-11).
Borland,J(2002).New estimates oftheprivaterateofreturn touniversityeducation in Australia. Melbourne.MelbourneInstituteofApplied Economicand SocialResearch.
Clarke,J.,Burnett,P.and Dart,B.(1994)FinalReportforA Research ProjectInvestigating PredictorsofPerformancein HigherEducation:PhaseILiteratureReview and Model Development.TertiaryEntranceProceduresAuthority,Queensland Universityof Technology:Brisbane.
Cohen,AM & Brawer,FB (1996).TheAmerican communitycollege.San Francisco.Jossey-Bass Publishers.
Dunn,K.(1995)Attrition Rates/Reason forWithdrawalfrom AdultBasicEducation/Adult LiteracyClasses:atentativelookatattrition rates in Australiaand particularsituations overseas includingaverysmallsamplesurveyfrom Western NSW.Paperpresented atNSW TAFE Research Association Conference,SydneyInstituteofTechnology:Sydney.
Edwards,JE & WatersLK (1982).‘Involvement,ability,performanceand satisfaction aspredictors ofcollegeattrition’.Educationaland PsychologicalMeasurement,vol.42,pp.1149—52. James,R (2001).‘Participation disadvantagein Australian highereducation:an analysis ofsome
effectsofgeographicallocation and socioeconomicstatus’.HigherEducation,vol.42,no.4, pp.455—72.
Karmel,T & Fieger,P (2012).ThevalueofcompletingaVET qualification,Adelaide.NCVER Karmel,T & Nguyen,N (2006).Thevalueofcompletingavocationaleducation and training
qualification.Adelaide.NCVER.
Long,M,Carpenter,P & Hayden,M (1995).Graduatingfrom highereducation,DEET.Canberra. AGPS.
Mark,K & KarmelT (2010).Thelikelihood ofcompletingaVET qualification:amodelbased approach.Technicalpaper.Adelaide.NCVER.
Marks,G (2007).Completinguniversity:characteristicsand outcomes ofcompletingand non- completingstudents.LongitudinalSurveysofAustralian Youth research report51.Retrieved in August2013from <http://research.acer.edu.au/lsay_research/55>.
Martinez,P (2001).Improvingstudentretention and achievement:whatdoweknow and whatdo weneed tofind out?.Report.Learningand SkillsDevelopmentAgency.
McGivney,V.(1996)StayingorLeavingtheCourse:Non-Completion and Retention ofMature Studentsin Furtherand HigherEducation.NationalInstituteofAdultContinuing Education:Leicester.
McInnis,C,Hartley,R,Polesel,J& Teese,R (2000).Non-completion in vocationaleducation and trainingin highereducation:aliteraturereview.Commissioned bytheDepartmentof Education,Trainingand Youth Affairs.
Mills,J,Bowman,K,Crean,D & Ranshaw,D (2012).Workforceskillsdevelopmentand engagement in trainingthrough skillsets:literaturereview.Occasionalpaper.Adelaide.NCVER.
NCVER (NationalCentreforVocationalEducation Research)(2011).StudentIntentionsSurvey. Adelaide.NCVER.Retrieved 12/03/2013from
<http://www.ncver.edu.au/publications/2425.html>.
NCVER (NationalCentreforVocationalEducation Research)(2011a).StudentOutcomes Survey. Adelaide.NCVER.Retrieved 25/10/2012from
<http://www.ncver.edu.au/statistic/21065.html>.
Ozga,J.and Sukhnandan,L.(1997)‘UndergraduateNon-Completion:A reportfortheHigher Education FundingCouncilforEngland’,in HigherEducation FundingCouncilfor England (HEFCE),UndergraduateNon-Completion in HigherEducation in England.
Research,December97,29.
Power,C.,Robertson,F.and Baker,M.(1987)Successin HigherEducation.NationalInstituteof LabourStudies,FlindersUniversity,South Australia.
Ross,J(2011).VET completion ratesunderestimated:skillscouncil.Campus Review,28March, vol.21,no.5.
Scott,C.,Burns,A.and Cooney,G.(1996)‘ReasonsforDiscontinuingStudy:The
CaseofMatureAgeFemaleStudentswith Children’,HigherEducation.31,pp.233-253. Snell,D & Hart,A (2007).‘Vocationaltrainingin Australia:istherealinkbetween attrition and
quality?’.Education + Training,vol.49,no.6,pp.500—12.
Snell,D.,& Hart,A.(2008).Reasonsfornon-completion and dissatisfaction amongapprentices and trainees:A regionalcasestudy.InternationalJournalofTrainingResearch,6(1),44-73. Yorke,MR,Dove,A,Haslam,L,HughesJones,H,Longden,B,O’Connell,C,Typuszak,R &
Ward,J(1997).Undergraduatenon-completion in England (extended finalreportofaresearch projectcommissioned byHEFCE).Bristol.HEFCE.
Yorke,M (2000).‘Thequalityofthestudentexperience:whatcan institutionslearn from data relatingto non-completion?’.Qualityin HigherEducation,vol.6,no.1,pp.61—75.
