Water Resources Planning and Management

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Water Resources Planning and Decision Making: Unit 1 H.P. Nachtnebel

Water Resources Planning and Management

H.P. Nachtnebel

Dept. of Water-Atmosphere-Environment

Univ. of Natural Resources and Life Sciences hans_peter.nachtnebel@boku.ac.at

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Water Resources Planning and Decision making Unit 1 H.P. Nachtnebel

Organisation

(1) Integrated Water Resources Management. Concept. Scales and Principles.

(2) Systems Approach to Water Resources Modelling and Management:

(3) Economic Evaluation Techniques: Discounting techniques, indicators, evaluation of small hydropower

(4) Economic Evaluation of Flood Protection Schemes

(5) Allocation Techniques. Specific Costs, Separable Costs, Dynamic Programming (6) The Principles of Multi-criteria Evaluation and Ranking Techniques

Dominated-non-dominated solutions, preferences and their integration in the decision making process

(7) ELECTRE: Hydropower Development

(8) Compromise Solutions: Instream Water Requirements (9) Comparison of Techniques and Areas of Application (10) Transboundary Water Management:

The Danube River Case Study The Aral Sea Problem

(11) Sustainability Concepts in Water Resources Management (12) Considering Risk and Uncertainty in Decision Making

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Objectives and Content

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Objective

provision of methods for decision making in a complex environment

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Content

steps in decision making formalisation of the process

- basics of a systems or state space approach - single objective: economic evaluation

- multi-objectives: economic, social and environ-

mental aspects

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Important documents

 Global Perspective

 UN World Water Development Reports (1-4)

 Review of World Water Resources by Country; FAO Water Rep. No23, 2003

 The Water Footprint Assessment Manual, Hoekstra AY et al, Earthscan Publ.

2011

 EU Perspective:

 EU Water Framework Directive (Directive 2000/60/EC)

 EU Flood Risk Directive (EU-2007/60/EC)

 Tools:

 Managing Water Resources, Simonovic S.P., UNESCO Earthscan, 2009

 Introduction to IWRM at the River Basin Level, UNESCO, 2009

 Catalyzing Change: A handbook for developing IWRM and water efficiency strategy; Global Water Partnership, 2004.

 Water Resources Systems Planning and Management and Applications; Loucks DP et al., UNESCO, 2005

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Development of Water Related Goals:

 A long way from Stockholm (1972) to the SDGs (2015)

The natural resources on earth, including the air, water, land, flora and fauna,… must be safeguarded for the benefit of

present and future generations through careful planning or management, as appropriate.

 1981: International Drinking Water Decade

 1983: Brundtland Commission

 1992: Agenda 21

 1992: Dublin principles for water

 1996: GWP and WWC

 2000: UN Millenium Summit: 8 MDGs

 2012: Rio+20:

 2015: Agenda 2030

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A brief summary of documents related to resources management

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What is water resources management ?

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Water Resources Management



Allocation of resources under a given set of objectives and criteria

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Efficient utilisation of water resources

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Avoid conflicts among different users

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Avoid conflicts among different interest groups

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Avoid conflicts among humans and nature

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Avoid conflicts among countries

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Contribution to a sustainable development

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General strategies for water resources management

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Perspectives and policies in holistic water management

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Integrated water management

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Water-Food-Energy Nexus

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EU directives

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Water Framework Directive

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Flood Risk Directive

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Integrated water management: goals

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Economic efficiency

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Ecological sustainability

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Social equity

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Integrated water management: sectors

www.un.org/waterforlifedecade

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Integrated water management: process

www.gwp.org

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The Water-Energy-Food Cycle

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Water and SDGs

www.worldbank.org

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Some details and examples

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Goal 6: Ensure Availability and Sustainable Management of Water and Sanitation for all

 6.1 By 2030, achieve universal and equitable access to safe and affordable drinking water for all

 6.2 By 2030, achieve access to adequate and equitable sanitation and hygiene for all

 6.3 By 2030, improve water quality by reducing pollution, eliminating dumping and minimizing release of hazardous chemicals and materials, halving the proportion of untreated wastewater

 6.4 By 2030, substantially increase water-use efficiency across all sectors and ensure sustainable withdrawals and supply of freshwater

 6.5 By 2030, implement integrated water resources management at all levels, including through transboundary cooperation as appropriate

 6.6 By 2020, protect and restore water-related ecosystems, including mountains, forests, wetlands, rivers, aquifers and lakes

 6.a By 2030, expand international cooperation and capacity-building

 6.b Support and strengthen the participation of local communities in improving water and sanitation management

 Water related disasters: floods, droughts are under represented

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Two EU water directives

•

The EU Water Framework Directive (EU-WFD) (Directive 2000/60/EC)

 achieve good ecological and chemical status of all water bodies

•

EU Flood Risk Directive (EU-FRD) (EU-2007/60/EC)

 reduce existing flood risk and avoid the emergence of future flood risks

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EU-WFD

 < 2000 water resources are at risk due to increasing demand and increasing load

 Need for policy integration: integration of water management

policies into Community policy areas (energy, transport, agriculture, fisheries, regional policy and tourism )

 Goals and programs were jointly elaborated by member states and NGOs

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EU-WFD

Goals:

 achieve good ecological and chemical status in all water bodies including coastal waters

 Reduce and avoid hazardous substances

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EU-WFD

Goals:

 achieve good ecological and chemical status in all water bodies including coastal waters

 Reduce and avoid hazardous substances

Approach and principles:

 basin wide water management plans, transparent and public participation

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EU-WFD

Methodology:

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Classification of water bodies

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Identification of indicators (water quality, biology, morphology,..)

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Evidence based reporting and assessment of status Implementation

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Strict time schedule

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Elaboration of river basin management plans

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formation of institutions for implementation and execution

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Monitoring systems and reporting

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The EU-WFD cycle

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EU-FRD

 < 2007: recognition that flood damages increase substantially although huge investments in flood protection were made

 Upstream- downstream problems

 Increasing pressure on riverine water bodies

 Land development and climate change have impact on flood events

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EU-FRD

 < 2007: recognition that flood damages increase substantially although huge investments in flood protection were made

 Upstream- downstream problems

 Increasing pressure on riverine water bodies

 Land development and climate change have impact on flood events

Goals

 reduce the recent risk of adverse consequences, especially for

human health and life, the environment, cultural heritage, economic activity

 Avoid the emergence of new flood risks

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EU-FRD

Approach and principles:

 Public involvement

 Transparency, documentation and reporting, updating

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EU-FRD

Approach and principles:

Methodology:

 Use WFD experiences and information, elaborate hazard maps, assess vulnerability and risks, risk maps

 Identify APSFR (areas of potential significant flood risk)

 Establish flood risk management plans at the basin scale

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EU-FRD

Approach and principles:

Methodology:

 Use WFD experiences and information, elaborate hazard maps, assess vulnerability and risks, risk maps

 Identify APSFR (areas of potential significant flood risk)

 Establish flood risk management plans at the basin scale

Implementation:

 Strict time schedule

 Implement measures according to flood risk management plans

 Reporting

 Non structural measures are emphasized (giving room to the river, increasing natural retention capacity in a basin)

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The EU-FRD schedule

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(1) Systems Approach to Water

Resources Modelling and Management:

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Formalization of the strategies

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How can we model decisions ?

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How can we evaluate decisions ?

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Major Steps in Water Resources Management

Assessment: of resources, uses, needs, future demands,

disasters, financial capabilities and constraints, technical

options, etc.

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Major Steps in Water Resources Management

Assessment: of resources, uses, needs, future demands, disasters, financial capabilities and constraints, technical options, etc.

Planning: siting, scaling, sizing, selecting, sequencing,

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Major Steps in Water Resources Management

Assessment: of resources, uses, needs, future demands, disasters, financial capabilities and constraints, technical options, etc.

Planning: siting, scaling, sizing, selecting, sequencing,

Design: structural design, cost estimation, institutional

design

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Major Steps in Water Resources Management

Assessment: of resources, uses, needs, future demands, disasters, financial capabilities and constraints, technical options, etc.

Planning: siting, scaling, sizing, selecting, sequencing,

Design: structural design, cost estimation, institutional design

Implementation: construction, supervision, enforcement of

laws

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Major Steps in Water Resources Management

Assessment: of resources, uses, needs, future demands, disasters, financial capabilities and constraints, technical options, etc.

Planning: siting, scaling, sizing, selecting, sequencing,

Design: structural design, cost estimation, institutional design

Implementation: construction, supervision, enforcement of laws

Operation: monitoring and regulating of system performance

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Major Steps in Water Resources Management

Assessment: of resources, uses, needs, future demands, disasters, financial capabilities and constraints, technical options, etc.

Planning: siting, scaling, sizing, selecting, sequencing,

Design: structural design, cost estimation, institutional design

Implementation: construction, supervision, enforcement of laws

Operation: monitoring and regulating of system performance

Maintenance: control, repair, replacement

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General Steps in Decision Making Processes

 Definition of the problem and general objectives

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General Steps in Decision Making Processes

 Collection of data and information (hard, soft)

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General Steps in Decision Making Processes

 Specification of objectives (sub-objectives), criteria and alternative actions (alternatives), and constraints

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General Steps in Decision Making Processes

 Impact assessment (linking decisions with outcomes)

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General Steps in Decision Making Processes

 Identification of societal preferences

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General Steps in Decision Making Processes

 Selection of a decision making technique

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General Steps in Decision Making Processes

 Transforming the impact table into an efficiency table

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General Steps in Decision Making Processes

 Ranking of alternatives

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General Steps in Decision Making Processes

 Sensitivity analysis

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General Steps in Decision Making Processes

 Critical review of the process, preferences and outcomes

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Definition of the Problem and General Objectives

Example:

Two countries along a river. The upstream country has built several reservoirs using the water for power generation (winter), while the downstream country uses water for irrigation (summer). Upstream country releases water without the interests of the downstream user.

The downstream country is rich in oil and gas resources.

Problem: The downstream country demands for consideration of its interests.

.

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Definition of the Problem and General Objectives

Example:

Two countries along a river. The upstream country has built several reservoirs using the water for power generation (winter), while the downstream country uses water for irrigation (summer). Upstream country releases water without the interests of the downstream user.

The downstream country is rich in oil and gas resources.

Problem: The downstream country demands for consideration of its interests.

General objectives: A water management strategy should be found which considers the interests of both users.

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Collection of Data (hard, soft)

Water availability in time for each country Demand of each country

Water use efficiency and productivity Environmental and social state

………

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Specification of Objectives (sub-objectives), Criteria, Alternative Actions and Constraints

The benefits from water resources utilisation should be equally shared and any damages to the society and the environment should be

minimised in each country.

Indicators will be net benefits (€) per year while the environmental impacts will be characterised verbally (very strong-strong-medium- acceptable-negligible)

Constraints: a minimum release of water has to be ensure throughout the year

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Identification of Alternative Actions

(1) Modification of the reservoir operation rules

(2) Building of reservoirs in the downstream country

(3) The downstream country will deliver gas for water to the upstream country

(4) Downstream country will put political pressure on the upstream country

…….

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Analytical Approach and Impact Assessment (Linking Decisions With Outcomes)

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Several approaches have been applied.

Examples:

DPSIR

State Space Approach (classical scientific approach)

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DPSIR Approach

Poor growing population

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The elements: drivers

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Drivers are forces that give the initial push to an entire chain of events

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Examples:

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Population (number, age structure, education levels, ...)

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Transport (persons, goods; road, water, air, off-road)

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Energy use (energy factors per type of activity, fuel types, technology, ...)

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Power plants (types of plants, age structure, fuel types,

...)

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DPSIR Approach

Increasing water demand

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The elements: pressures

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different human activities create “pressures” on the environment, resulting from production or consumption processes.



(after: KRISTENSEN; 2004):

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excessive use of environmental resources

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changes in land use

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emissions (of chemicals, waste, radiation, noise) to air, water and soil

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DPSIR Approach

Limited availability of water

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The elements: state

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The state of the environment is affected as a result of the pressures. The state is mostly specified by various physical, chemical and biological

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Examples Air quality (national, regional, local, ...)

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Water quality (rivers, lakes, seas, coastal zones, ...)

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Soil quality (national, local, natural areas, ...)

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Ecosystems (biodiversity, vegetation, soil organisms, ...)

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DPSIR Approach

Decrease in groundwater

Increase in agriculture Erosion problems

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The elements: impacts

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changes in the state have environmental or economic

‘impacts’

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Examples:

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Costs for cleaning up the environment

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Losses in habitats, species,

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Decrease of utilizable resources

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DPSIR Approach

Pricing of water

Building of reservoirs

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The elements: responses

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Responses are strategies to mitigate/compensate adverse impacts

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Responses are strategies to maintain a resource/ to maximize the outcome….

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State Space Approach: The 5 Elements

Input Output State

Output function

State transition function

RESERVOIR

INPUT at time t OUTPUT at time t+1 Discharge QIN(t) Discharge QOUT(t+1)

Temperature T(t) STATE S(t) Hydropower HP(t+1)

Pollution X(t) Pollution XOUT(t+1)

DECISIONS D(t) Reservoir Operation Rule

STATE of the System S(t)

Water Storage V(t)

Water Quality WQ(t) Water Temperature RT(t)

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Input

 Controlled D:

costs allocated for construction, operation and maintenance, (operation rule)

 uncontrolled I:

precipitation (streamflows), depending on wheather, if the watershed response is included in the model or not

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Output O

 desirable:

water utilization (benefits)

 undesirable:

water deficiencies, floods (losses)

 neutral:

system outflow, seepage, percolation, evaporation etc.

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State S

 Examples:

reservoir volumes in timestep t soil moisture in timestep t

vegetation cover in timestep t (winter, summer)

 System parameters:

reservoir capacities, slopes, soils, runoff coefficient, e.g. K and n, parameters of a linear reservoir cascade model for rainfall/runoff modeling or streamflow routing)

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Output function F(.)

relates the output O (it is used as a vector) to the state S and the Input I:

O(t)= F(S(t); I(t), D(t))

The Output functions F is only dependent on the previous state S(t) (if a dynamic system is considered) and the input

An output variable must not be included !!!!

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Example: Reservoir Operation

For the case of reservoir operation the output function may constitute the reservoir operation rule like

Qout(t)=Qin(t) for Qmin<Qin<Qmaxtol and S(t)<Smax

Qout(t)=Qmaxtol for Qin(t)>Qmaxtol and S(t)<Smax Qout(t)=Qmin for Qin(t)<Qmin and S(t)>Smin

Qout

Qin Qmaxtol

Qmin

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State transition function G(.)

S(t+t)= G(S(t); I(t), D(t))

The state transition function is exclusively dependent on the previous state and the input

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State transition function G(.)

S(t+t)= G(S(t); I(t), D(t))

The state transition function is exclusively dependent on the previous state and the input

Example: The state transition function is defined by the water balance equation

S(t+t)=S(t) + Qin(t)*t - Qou(t)*t Qout(t) = F(S(t); Qin(t))

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Goals and objectives

Objectives indicate the directions of state change of a system desired by the decision maker(s).

There are three possible ways to improve an objective:

maximizing it, minimizing it or

maintaining it at a given (status quo) position.

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Examples

Examples of objectives are optimization of economic payoff, environmental quality, water supply, water quality and mitigation of natural and man-made hazards.

An example of the third situation would be a farmer

wishing to maintain a constant supply of water to a field

where both an excess or deficient amount of water will

adversely affect output.

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Criteria

criteria are based on standards, rules or tests on which judgements or decisions can be based.

One or several criteria may characterise an objective.

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Identification of Societal Preferences

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A very difficult step

it should be based on governmental declarations,

development plans, international and national standards

Sometimes, neighbouring countries have different

objectives and preferences (e.g. Case study Gabcikovo)

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Assessment of Consequences



Economic

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Social objectives

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Ecological

have to be simultaneously addressed

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MULTI-OBJECTIVE DECISION MAKING

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Transforming the Impact Table into an Efficiency Table



The impact table quantifies the impacts of each alternatives on all the criteria

alternatives A1 A2 A3 Aj An

criteria C1

C2 C3

Ci Cij

Cm

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Ranking of Alternatives



Requires preferences of each partner and trade-offs



outranking techniques (for discrete alternatives only)

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distance-based techniques and

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value- or utility-based techniques.

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Decisions (Decision Space)



Decisions are described by variables characterising physical aspects



Design of a hp station (where, type, the size, the operation,….)



These variables are bounded



due to physical limitations, technological limits, financial resources,…..

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Objectives (Objective Space)



The outputs

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Energy generation in kWh, crop production in t/ha, level of flood protection,….

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are assessed with respect to the defined objectives



Net benefits, environmental impacts, social benefts

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Sensitivity Analysis

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