Two Methodological Notes on Spatial Population Dynamics in the Soviet Union

TWO METHODOLOGICAL NOTES ON S P A T I A L P O P U L A T I O N DYNAMICS I N THE S O V I E T U N I O N

A n d r e i R o g e r s

J u n e 1 9 7 6

Research Memoranda are interim reports 0 1 1 research being con- ducted by the International I n s t i t ~ t e f o r Applied Systems Analysis, and as such receivc only limited scie~itifir review. Views or opin- ions contained herein d o not rieccssarily represent those o f the Institute or o f the National Member Organizations supporting the Institute.

Prepared f o r t h e X X I I I I n t e r n a t i o n a l G e o g r a p h i c a l C o n g r e s s , J u l y , 1 9 7 6 , M i n s k a n d M o s c o w .

P r e f a c e

I n t e r e s t i n human s e t t l e m e n t s y s t e m s and p o l i c i e s h a s b e e n a c r i t i c a l p a r t o f u r b a n - r e l a t e d work a t IIASA s i n c e i t s i n c e p - t i o n . R e c e n t l y t h i s i n t e r e s t h a s g i v e n r i s e t o a c o n c e n t r a t e d r e s e a r c h e f f o r t f o c u s i n g on m i g r a t i o n d y n a m i c s a n d s e t t l e m e n t p a t t e r n s . F o u r s u b - t a s k s form t h e c o r e o f t h i s r e s e a r c h e f f o r t :

I . t h e s t u d y o f s p a t i a l p o p u l a t i o n d y n a m i c s ;

11. t h e d e f i n i t i o n and e l a b o r a t i o n o f a new r e s e a r c h a r e a c a l l e d d e m o m e t r i c s and i t s a p p l i c a t i o n t o m i g r a t i o n a n a l y s i s and s p a t i a l p o p u l a t i o n

f o r e c a s t i n g ;

111. t h e a n a l y s i s and d e s i g n o f m i g r a t i o n a n d s e t t l e m e n t p o l i c y ;

I V . a c o m p a r a t i v e s t u d y o f n a t i o n a l m i g r a t i o n and

s e t t l e m e n t p a t t e r n s a n d p o l i c i e s .

his p a p e r , t h e f i f t h i n t h e c o m p a r a t i v e s t u d y s e r i e s , e x a m i n e s two a s p e c t s o f s p a t i a l p o p u l a t i o n d y n a m i c s i n t h e S o v i e t Union: t h e m i g r a t i o n a g e p r o f i l e i n t h e U.S.S.R. and some o f t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n a l c o n s e q u e n c e s o f z e r o p o p u l a t i o n

g r o w t h . The f o r m e r t o p i c d e a l s w i t h t h e p r o b l e m o f s u m m a r i z i n g o b s e r v e d r e g u l a r i t i e s i n m i g r a t i o n d a t a , t h e l a t t e r c o n s i d e r s how s t a b i l i z a t i o n o f t h e S o v i e t n a t i o n a l p o p u l a t i o n m i g h t a f f e c t i t s u r b a n and r u r a l p o p u l a t i o n d i s t r i b u t i o n s .

R e l a t e d p a p e r s i n t h e c o m p a r a t i v e s t u d y s e r i e s , and o t h e r p u b l i c a t i o n s o f t h e m i g r a t i o n and s e t t l e m e n t s t u d y , a r e l i s t e d on t h e b a c k p a g e o f t h i s r e p o r t .

A . R o g e r s

J u n e 1 9 7 6

T a b l e o f C o n t e n t s

P a g e

P r e f a c e

...

ⁱⁱⁱ

A b s t r a c t

...

^{v i i}

N o t e # 1: MODEL MIGRATION SCHEDULES: AN

ILLUSTRATION USING DATA FOR THE

SOVIET U N I O N

...

1

.

I n t r o d u c t i o n

...

2

.

Model M i g r a t i o n S c h e d u l e s

...

2 . 1 The M i g r a t i o n Age P r o f i l e

...

2 . 2 The M i g r a t i o n L e v e l

...

2 . 3 I l l u s t r a t i o n s

...

2 . 4 A p p l i c a t i o n : M i g r a t i o n

i n t h e S o v i e t Union

...

3

.

^A M u l t i r e g i o n a l L i f e T a b l e f o r

t h e USSR

...

4

.

C o n c l u s i o n

...

Note # 2 : SOME SPATIAL CONSEQUENCES OF ZERO

POPULATION GROWTH I N THE SOVIET U N I O N

...

1

.

I n t r o d u c t i o n

...

2

.

P r o j e c t i o n o f t h e S o v i e t U n i o n ' s

...

P o p u l a t i o n t o t h e Y e a r 2000 3

.

S p a t i a l Zero P o p u l a t i o n Growth

i n t h e USSR

...

4

.

C o n c l u s i o n

...

R e f e r e n c e s

...

P a p e r s o f t h e M i g r a t i o n a n d S e t t l e m e n t

S t u d y

...

T h i s p a p e r was o r i g i n a l l y p r e p a r e d u n d e r t h e t i t l e " M o d e l l i n g f o r Management" f o r p r e s e n t a t i o n a t a N a t e r R e s e a r c h C e n t r e

(U.K. ) Conference on " R i v e r P o l l u t i o n C o n t r o l " , Oxford, 9 - 1 1 A s r i l , 1979.

A b s t r a c t

The a b s e n c e o f r e l i a b l e and d e t a i l e d d a t a on i n t e r n a l m i g r a t i o n i s a p r o b l e m t h a t r e p e a t e d l y c o n f r o n t s demogra- p h e r s and p o p u l a t i o n g e o g r a p h e r s c o n c e r n e d w i t h t h e dynam- i c s o f s p a t i a l p o p u l a t i o n s . The f i r s t o f t h e two s h o r t n o t e s a s s e m b l e d i n t h i s p a p e r d e s c r i b e s a p r o c e d u r e f o r i d e n t i f y i n g and summarizing t h e p e r s i s t i n g r e g u l a r i t i e s t h a t a p p e a r i n e m p i r i c a l d a t a on i n t e r r e g i o n a l m i g r a t i o n . An a p p l i c a t i o n b a s e d on d a t a f o r t h e S o v i e t Union i l l u s - t r a t e s t h e p r i n c i p a l a r g u m e n t .

The s e c o n d n o t e c o n s i d e r s some of t h e g e o g r a p h i c a l c o n s e q u e n c e s o f z e r o p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h i n t h e S o v i e t

Union. S p e c i f i c a l l y , a t t e n t i o n i s f o c u s e d on t h e c h a n g e s i n a g e c o m p o s i t i o n s a n d i n r e g i o n a l s h a r e s o f t h e u r b a n and r u r a l p o p u l a t i o n s o f t h e U.S.S.R. t h a t m i g h t a r i s e w e r e f e r t i l i t y i m m e d i a t e l y t o d e c l i n e t o r e p l a c e m e n t l e v e l .

Acknowledgements

The a u t h o r i s d e e p l y i n d e b t e d t o F r a n s W i l l e k e n s f o r

programming a n d c a r r y i n g o u t a l l o f t h e n u m e r i c a l c a l c u l a t i o n s t h a t form t h e b a s i s o f t h i s p a p e r . H e a l s o i s g r a t e f u l t o G a l i n a K i s e l e v a o f t h e U.S.S.R. f o r p r o v i d i n g him w i t h t h e p u b l i s h e d d e m o g r a p h i c d a t a f o r t h e S o v i e t Union, t o A r n e A r v i d s s o n and ' F o l k e S n i c k a r s f o r t h e d a t a on Sweden, and t o K a z i m i e r z Dziewonski and P i o t r K o r c e l l i f o r t h e d a t a on P o l a n d .

MODEL M I G R A T I O N SCHEDULES: AN ILLUSTRATION USING

DATA FOR THE SOVIET U N I O N

A n d r e i Rogers

1 . I n t r o d u c t i o n

The s p a t i a l e v o l u t i o n o f a human p o p u l a t i o n i s l a r g e l y d e - t e r m i n e d by i t s r e c e n t h i s t o r y o f f e r t i l i t y , m o r t a l i t y , and m i g r a t i o n - - a h i s t o r y d e f i n e d by a c o l l e c t i o n o f s p a t i a l l y

d i s a g g r e g a t e d a g e - s p e c i f i c r a t e s o f b i r t h , d e a t h , a n d g e o g r a p h - i c a l m o b i l i t y . These r a t e s e x h i b i t r e m a r k a b l y p e r s i s t e n t r e g u l a r - i t i e s a l l o v e r t h e g l o b e , and i t i s t h e r e f o r e n o t s u r p r i s i n g

t h a t d e m o g r a p h e r s h a v e s o u g h t t o i d e n t i f y and summarize s u c h r e g u l a r i t i e s by means o f v a r i o u s c u r v e - f i t t i n g e x e r c i s e s t h a t c o l l e c t i v e l y f a l l u n d e r t h e d e s i g n a t i o n o f "model" s c h e d u l e c o n s t r u c t i o n . Model s c h e d u l e s h a v e two i m p o r t a n t a p p l i c a t i o n s :

1) t h e y may b e u s e d t o i n f e r , d i s a g g r e g a t e , o r a d j u s t t h e e m p i r i c a l s c h e d u l e s o f p o p u l a t i o n s f o r w h i c h t h e r e q u i s i t e d a t a a r e l a c k i n g o r i n a c c u r a t e , a n d

2 ) t h e y c a n b e a p p l i e d i n m a t h e m a t i c a l s t u d i e s o f s p a t i a l p o p u l a t i o n d y n a m i c s .

Model f e r t i l i t y and model m o r t a l i t y s c h e d u l e s h a v e r e c e i v e d a s i g n i f i c a n t amount o f a t t e n t i o n d u r i n g t h e p a s t d e c a d e . T h i s h a s n o t b e e n t h e c a s e w i t h model m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s . T h i s pa- p e r c o n s i d e r s t h e p r o b l e m o f d e f i n i n g model m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s and i l l u s t r a t e s t h e i r u s e w i t h d e m o g r a p h i c d a t a f o r t h e U.S.S.R.

2. Model M i g r a t i o n S c h e d u l e s

The s h a p e , o r p r o f i l e , o f a n a g e - s p e c i f i c s c h e d u l e o f m i - g r a t i o n r a t e s i s a f e a t u r e t h a t may b e u s e f u l l y s t u d i e d i n d e - p e n d e n t l y o f i t s i n t e n s i t y , o r l e v e l .

-

T h i s i s b e c a u s e t h e r e i s c o n s i d e r a b l e e m p i r i c a l e v i d e n c e t h a t a l t h o u g h t h e l a t t e r t e n d s t o v a r y s i g n i f i c a n t l y from p l a c e t o p l a c e , t h e f o r m e r r e m a i n s much t h e same i n v a r i o u s l o c a l i t i e s . ~ l l u s t r a t i o n s o f t h i s p r o p e r t y a p p e a r i n F i g u r e 1 , which s e t s o u t m i g r a t i o n r a t e s f o r t h e U.S.A. and Sweden.

M i g r a t i o n r a t e s v a r y s u b s t a n t i a l l y f o r d i f f e r e n t a g e g r o u p s . They a r e r e l a t i v e l y h i g h f o r t h e young b u t d e c l i n e s h a r p l y w i t h a g e among t h e m i d d l e - a g e d . The b a s i c a g e p r o f i l e s may b e

A G E

I i ( ~ s i ( 1 r 1 1 t i a l n l o b i l i t y

-

rate ( i n ( - l u d i n g Inovers I'rom i i b r o a d )

W i t h i l l - c o u n t y r a t e - - B e t w ( . c n - c o u n t y rate

. . .

1jetw et.11 - s t a t e r a t e

FIGURE l . A : A g e - S p e c i f i c Annual M i g r a t i o n R a t e s o f t h e T o t a l U n i t e d S t a t e s P o p u l a t i o n by C a t e g o r y o f Move:

A v e r a g e o f 1966-1971.

S o u r c e : Long ( 1 9 7 3 1 , p . 38

AGE

FIGURE l . B : A g e - S p e c i f i c A n n u a l M i g r a t i o n R a t e s of t h e S w e d i s h P o p u l a t i o n by S e x : A v e r a g e of 1 9 6 8 - 1 9 7 3 .

S o u r c e : I n t e r n a l M i g r a t i o n i n Sweden 1 9 6 8 - 1 9 7 3 , 1 9 7 4 , p . 1 0 .

summarized i n a number o f ways, t h e more u s e f u l o f which t e n d t o r e f l e c t s i m i l a r e f f o r t s i n t h e a r e a s o f f e r t i l i t y and mor-.

t a l i t y .

B e c a u s e m i g r a t i o n , l i k e f e r t i l i t y , i s p o t e n t i a l l y a r e p e t i t i v e e v e n t , i t s l e v e l c a n b e e x p r e s s e d i n t e r m s o f a n e x p e c t e d number o f e v e n t s p e r p e r s o n . B u t , l i k e m o r t a l i t y , m i g r a t i o n c a n b e m e a s u r e d i n t e r m s o f a n e x p e c t e d d u r a t i o n t i m e , e . g . , t h e f r a c t i o n o f a l i f e t i m e t h a t o n e may e x p e c t t o l i v e i n a p a r t i c u l a r r e g i o n . The l a t t e r p e r s p e c t i v e s u g g e s t s a n a p p r o a c h t o t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n of model m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s t h a t r e s e m b l e s t h e e f f o r t s o f C o a l e and Demeny

( 1 9 6 6 ) ; t h e f o r m e r v i e w l e a d s o n e t o c u r v e - f i t t i n g e f f o r t s s u c h a s t h o s e o f K e y f i t z ( 1 9 6 8 ) , Mazur ( 1 9 7 6 ) and T e k s e

( 1 9 6 7 ) . Having e x p e r i m e n t e d e l s e w h e r e w i t h t h e " m o r t a l i t y "

a p p r o a c h ( R o g e r s , 1975, Ch. 6 and R o g e r s and C a s t r o 3976) w e s h a l l c o n s i d e r h e r e t h e a p p l i c a b i l i t y o f t h e " f e r t i l i t y "

a p p r o a c h

.

2.1 The P l i g r a t i o n Age P r o f i l e

A g e - s p e c i f i c m i g r a t i o n r a t e s , s u c h a s t h o s e i l l u s t r a t e d i n F i g u r e 1 c o n f o u n d a r e g i o n ' s m i g r a t i o n a g e p r o f i l e - w i t h t h e r e g i o n ' s p o p u l a t i o n a g e c o m p o s i t i o n . T h i s c a n b e e a s i l y d e m o n s t r a t e d by e x a m i n i n g t h e components i n t h e n u m e r a t o r a n d d e n o m i n a t o r o f t h e f r a c t i o n t h a t d e f i n e s t h e a g e - s p e c i f i c m i g r a t i o n r a t e , M(x)

.

I f O ( x ) d e n o t e s t h e number o f o u t - m i g r a n t s o f a g e x l e a v i n g a r e g i o n w i t h a p o p u l a t i o n o f K ( x ) , t h e n

w h e r e

0 = t o t a l number o f o u t m i g r a n t s ; N ( x ) = p r o p o r t i o n o f m i g r a n t s o f a g e x ;

K = t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n ;

C ( x ) = p r o p o r t i o n o f p o p u l a t i o n of a g e x ; and c m r ⁼ c r u d e m i g r a t i o n r a t e .

We d e f i n e N ( x ) t o b e t h e m i g r a t i o n a g e p r o f i l e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a r e g i o n a l p o p u l a t i o n and C ( x ) t o b e t h a t p o p u l a t i o n ' s

-

^{a g e}

c o m p o s i t i o n . D i s t i n g u i s h i n g among s u c h p r o f i l e s and c o m p o s i t i o n s on t h e b a s i s o f a summary measure o f a g e s u c h a s mean a g e , we c a n c l a s s i f y o b s e r v e d m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s a s f a l l i n g i n t o one o f t h e f o l l o w i n g f o u r c a t e g o r i e s :

1 . Young m i g r a t i o n a g e p r o f i l e and young p o p u l a t i o n a g e c o m p o s i t i o n ;

2. Young m i g r a t i o n age p r o f i l e and o l d - p o p u l a t i o n a g e c o m p o s i t i o n ;

3.

-

Old m i g r a t i o n a g e p r o f i l e and young -- p o p u l a t i o n a g e c o m p o s i t i o n ; and

4. Old

-

m i g r a t i o n a g e p r o f i l e and ^-. o l d ^. -- p o p u l a t i o n a g e c o m p o s i t i o n .

L e t

n

d e n o t e t h e mean age o f p r o f i l e N ( x )

,

^and

c

d e n o t e t h e mean a g e o f c o m p o s i t i o n C ( x ) . Then t h e above f o u r s t a t e - ments may b e summarized by t h e f o l l o w i n g two-by-two t a b l e :

F i g u r e 2.A i l l u s t r a t e s t h e age p r o f i l e s and a g e c o m p o s i t i o n s t h a t combine t o p r o d u c e t h e m i g r a t i o n r a t e c u r v e s of F i g u r e 1.B. S i m i l a r d a t a f o r Poland a r e s e t o u t i n F i g u r e 2.B f o r p u r p o s e s of comparison ( S e e a l s o A p p e n d i x ) . The r e s p e c t i v e mean a g e s f o r Sweden a r e

n

^{= 25.93 and}

⁵

^{= 26.71} f o r m a l e s

and ⁼ 25.23 and

c

^{= 25.48} f o r f e m a l e s . F o r Poland t h e y a r e

n

^{= 26.27} and

c

^{= 32.99} f o r m a l e s and

n

^{= 28.50 and}

c

^{= 34.75}

f o r f e m a l e s .

----.

M i g r a t i o n Age P r o f i l e , N

( X I

Old

n

above a v e r a g e

c

below a v e r a g e above a v e r a g e

c

above a v e r a g e Young

P o p u l a t i o n Ag e

Composition, C ( x )

Old

below a v e r a g e

c

below a v e r a g e

n

below a v e r a g e

5

above a v e r a g e

A . SWEDEN : MALES AND FEMALES

FEMALES

- - --

_MALES

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

AGE

FEMALES

- - - -

MALES

F'igllrc. 2 : Ol~>erved Migatiori Age Profiles Soc1rc.e : Appendix

C. M A L E S

:

SWEDEN AND POLAND

---

^SWEDEN

POLAND 0.060 ^-

0.048 --

0 ^{1 I I}

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

AGE

- - -

_SWEDEN

POLAND

0 10 2 0 30 40 50 60 70 80

AGE

Ii'igtcrc* 2 : Ot)sc~r\td 1Migratror1 4gc Prol'ilt*s ( c ~ ) r ~ t i r ~ ~ r c ~ l )

2 . 2 The M i g r a t i o n L e v e l

A commonly u s e d summary m e a s u r e o f f e r t i l i t y l e v e l i s t h e g r o s s r e p r o d u c t i o n r a t e w h i c h , f o r d a t a e x p r e s s e d i n f i v e - y e a r a g e i n t e r v a l s , i s d e f i n e d a s

GRR = 51 F ( x )

.

X

A s i m i l a r l y u s e f u l summary m e a s u r e o f m i g r a t i o n l e v e l i s t h e g r o s s m i g r a p r o d u c t i o n r a t e ( R o g e r s , 1 9 7 5 , p. 1 4 8 ) :

GMR = 51 M(x)

.

X

A s w i t h a g e p r o f i l e s a n d a g e c o m p o s i t i o n s , i t i s s o m e t i m e s c o n -

v e n i e n t t o d i s l z i n g u i s h v a r i o u s a g e - s p e c i f i c s c h e d u l e s o f m i g r a - t i o n r a t e s l l ( x ) by t h e i r mean a g e , m

-

s a y ; i n s u c h i n s t a n c e s w e s h a l l a s s o c i a t e t h a t mean a g e w i t h t h e s c h e d u l e ' s GllR a n d w r i t e

GMR

(i) .

S u b s t i t u t i n g ⁽ 1 ) i n t o ( 2 ) w e o b s e r v e t h a t

w h e r e

I = 5.- 0 _K = t h e i n t e n s i t y o f m i g r a t i o n , a n d

p = C - - N ( x ) - t h e a g e p a t t e r n o f m i g r a t i o n .

c

( X I -

X

N o t e t h a t t h e i n t e n s i t y o f m i g r a t i o n d e a l s w i t h t h e f r a c t i o n o f a p o p u l a t i o n t h a t moves ( i . e . , t h e c r u d e m i g r a t i o n r a t e t i m e s 5 ) , w h e r e a s t h e a g e p a t t e r n o f m i g r a t i o n i s a summary i n d e x o f two a g e d i s t r i b u t i o n s . M i g r a t i o n l e v e l i s t h e p r o d u c t o f i n - t e n s i t y a n d a g e p a t t e r n . T h i s s u g g e s t s t h e f o l l o w i n g c l a s s i f i - c a t i o n o f o b s e r v e d m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s :

1 . Low GMR ( o r I o r c m r ) a n d low

m;

2 . Low GMR ( o r I o r c m r ) a n d h i g h m;

3. High GMR ( o r I o r c m r ) a n d low

m;

^{a n d}

4 . High GMR ( o r I o r c m r ) a n d h i g h

m .

T h e s e a r e s u m m a r i z e d i n t h e f o l l o w i n g t a b l e :

- --- -- - -- .- -

P a t t e r n , P ( 6 )

--- - - --

Young

M i g r a t i o n

5

b e l o w a v e r a g e

m

a b o v e a v e r a g e L e v e l , Low GMR b e l o w a v e r a g e GMR b e l o w a v e r a g e

GMR

(m)

^{-- - -}

m

b e l o w a v e r a g e

( o r 1)

m

a b o v e a v e r a g e

High

GMR a b o v e a v e r a g e GMR a b o v e a v e r a g e ( o r c m r )

2 . 3 I l l u s t r a t i o n s

The d e c o m p o s i t i o n o f a n a g e - s p e c i f i c m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e , M ( x ) , i n t o a l e v e l c o m p o n e n t , c m r , s a y , a n d a p a t t e r n c o m p o n e n t ,

~ ( m ) ,

s u g g e s t s a m o r e d i r e c t f o c u s on t h e ways i n w h i c h d i f - f e r e n t r e g i o n a l m i g r a t i o n a g e p r o f i l e s c o m b i n e w i t h d i f f e r e n t r e g i o n a l a g e c o m p o s i t i o n s t o p r o d u c e o b s e r v e d d i s t r i b u t i o n s o f m i g r a t i o n r a t e s by a g e .

T a b l e 1 p r e s e n t s two r e g i o n a l m i g r a t i o n a g e p r o f i l e s ( F i g u r e 3 ) a n d two r e g i o n a l a g e c o m p o s i t i o n s ( F i g u r e 4 ) .

G i v e n a c m r o f 0 . 1 0 s a y , t h e s e f o u r d i s t r i b u t i o n s may b e com- b i n e d t o f o r m t h e f o u r s e t s o f m i g r a t i o n r a t e s t h a t a p p e a r i n Columns 5 t h r o u g h 8 a n d w h i c h a r e i l l u s t r a t e d i n F i q u r e 5 .

A young ( o l d ) m i g r a t i o n a g e p r o f i l e a n d a young ( o l d ) a g e c o m p o s i t i o n g e n e r a t e s a n o l d ( y o u n g ) m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e . B u t w h a t a r e t h e r e s u l t s o f m i x e d c o m b i n a t i o n s ? C o n s i d e r , f o r e x a m p l e , t h e c o m b i n a t i o n o f a young m i g r a t i o n a g e

p r o f i l e a n d a n o l d a g e c o m p o s i t i o n - - a c o m b i n a t i o n t h a t p r e s u m a b l y e x i s t s i n e c o n o m i c a l l y d e c l i n i n g a r e a s w h i c h

h a v e b e e n c o n s i s t e n t l y l o s i n g t h e i r y o u n g e r p o p u l a t i o n . S u c h

L

n

o m m c n a m u b d m o b m u u o m m u m c n ~ - m a m o d b u a m d o u x m m N m a m N 0 m a u u m a u N m

y T y N d d d ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? "

~ ~ ~ d d d d o o o o o o o o ~ ~ ~

a

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r .

n n

w X b o N a b u N N m u m m ~ b 0 m m P -

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d 4 d N N

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A . YOUNG MIGRATION AGE PROFILE

o !

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O L D MIGRATION AGE PROFILE

NORTHCENTRAL REGION TO SOUTH REGION ( USA,

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o !

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0 10 2 Q 30 40 5 0 60 70 A G E

F i g r r e 3 . A l t t r r n a t i v e O b s e r v e d M i g a t i o ~ ~ .4gc Profilcs So~~rc:c. : Iiogclrj at111 C a s l r o

.

¹⁰⁷⁶

A . YOUNG POPULATION AGE COMPOSITION

M E X I C O , 1966

" 1 I

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 AGE

ENGLAND AND WALES, 1968

Figure 4 . Alternative Observed Population Age (:ornposilions

0.20

0.16

z 0.12

0

-

=

I-

0 a

0

Source : keyfilz and Flieger , 1971

-- 6. OLD POPULATION AGE COMPOSITION

-.

--

0.04

--

0 , ¹

0 10 20 30 CO 50 60 70 AGE

A. YOUNG MIGRATION AGE 6 . OLD MIGRATION AGE PROFILE AND YOUNG PROFILE AND YOUNG

POPULATION AGE COMPOSITION POPULATION AGE COMPOSITION

C. YOUNG MIGRATION AGE D. OLD MIGRATION AGE PROFILE AND OLD PROFILE AND OLD

POPULATION AGE COMPOSITION POPULATION AGE COMPOSITION

0.30L 0.30 '

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

A G E A G E

0.25-- 0.25

Figure 5 : Alternative Hypothetical Migration Schedules

Sourc,c : T a l k 1

--

/ 0.05 ^{- *}

0 - : : : : : : : : : : ; : : : 0 1 : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0 10 20. 30 40 50 60 70

A G E A G E

m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s clif f e r s u b - s t a n t i a l l y i n mean a g e f r o m t h o s e o f e c o n o m i c a l l y g r o w i n g r e g i o n s w i t h t h e i r c o m b i n a t i o n s o f young p r o f i l e s a n d young c o m p o s i t i o n s .

The r e v e r s e c o m b i n a t i o n o f a n o l d m i g r a t i o n a g e p r o f i l e and a young a g e c o m p o s i t i o n may p e r h a p s b e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c o f a r a p - i d l y g r o w i n g r e g i o n i n a c o l d c l i m a t e . I n s u c h a c a s e o n e m i g h t e x p e c t t o f i n d a r e l a t i v e l y l a r g e o u t m i g r a t i o n o f t h e e l d e r l y t o m i l d e r and s u n n i e r c l i m a t e s .

2.4 A p p l i c a t i o n : M i g r a t i o n i n t h e S o v i e t Union

T a b l e 2 p r e s e n t s c r u d e e s t i m a t e s o f a g e - s p e c i f i c m i g r a t i o n r a t e s b e t w e e n u r b a n and r u r a l a r e a s f o r t h e S o v i e t Union i n 1970.

They were d e r i v e d i n t h e f o l . l o w i n g manner. A p a i r o f p u b l i s h e d a g e p r o f i l e s d e s c r i b i n g i n - and o u t - m i g r a n t s i n t o a n d o u t o f u r b a n a r e a s i n t h e U.S.S.R. was a v e r a g e d t o p r o d u c e t h e a g e p r o f i l e s e t o u t i n Column 3 and i l l u s t r a t e d i n F i g u r e 6 . (The 0-15 and 60+ a g e g r o u p p r o p o r t i o n s were d i s a g g r e g a t e d u s i n g t h e p r o f i l e e x h i b i t e d hy t h e P o l i - s h d a t a . ) N e x t , t h e m i g r a t i o n

a g e p r o f i l e was combined w i t h o b s e r v e d u r b a n and r u r a l p o p u l a t i o n a g e c o m p o s i t i o n s and o b s e r v e d c r u d e m i g r a t i o n r a t e s ( t h e l a t t e r a v a i l a b l e o n l y f o r 1973 and 1 9 7 4 , however) t o p r o d u c e t h e u r b a n - t o - r u r a l and r u r a l - t o - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n r a t e s t h a t a p p e a r i n t h e l a s t two columns o f T a b l e 2.

3 . A M u l t i r e g i o n a l L i f e T a b l e f o r t h e USSR

A y e - s p e c i f i c d e a t h r a t e s d i s a g g r e g a t e d by u r b a n and r u r a l p l a c e s o f r e s i d e n c e a p p a r e n t l y a r e n o t p u b l i s h e d by t h e USSR.

Column 4 o f T a b l e 3 s e t s o u t s u c h r a t e s f o r t h e n a t i o n a s a whole. T h e s e w e r e s c a l e d t o p r o d u c e t h e t o t a l numbers o f

d e a t h s i n u r b a n a n d r u r a l a r e a s t h a t were r e p o r t e d i n p u b l i s h e d d a t a . Thus w e a r e f o r c e d t o assume t h a t t h e a g e c u r v e o f d e a t h r a t e s i n u r b a n and r u r a l a r e a s i s t h e same ( b u t n o t t h e a r e a u n d e r t h e c u r v e ) . I n t h i s manner w e o b t a i n e d t h e a g e -

s p e c i f i c u r b a n a n d r u r a l d e a t h r a t e s s e t o u t i n Columns 5 and 6 . T h e s e r a t e s were combined w i t h t h e a g e - s p e c i f i c p o p u l a t i o n d a t a i n T a b l e 3 and t h e m i g r a t i o n r a t e s i n T a b l e 2 t o g e n e r a t e t h e t w o - r e g i o n l i f e t a b l e f o r t h e USSR t h a t a p p e a r s i n T a b l e 4 .

TABLE 2. Model Migration Schedules for the USSR, 1970. 1 Age Profile , N(x) Age Composition 2 , C(x) Age, x ~igration

ate^,

M (x) (1.) (2.) (3.) (4.) (5.) (6.) (7.) In

-

Out

-

Average Urban Rural

-

Urban to Rural Rural to Urban Migration

(z

= 25.82) (E = 31.27) (E = 30.70) (m = 27.92) (15 = 27.06) 70 +

)

Unknown TOTAL 'source: Vestnik Statistiki, 1971, No. 11, p. 81. Average profiles for the 0-15 and 60+ age groups were obtained using the age profile for Poland in Figure 2.B. 2~ource: Table 3. M(X) = cmr.. (N(x) + C(x)), where cmr(u,r) = 0.01124 and cmr(r,u) = 0.03475, and where cmr = - K

-

TABLE 3: Urban and Rural Populations and Death Rates: U.S.S.R., 1970. Age, x ~o~ulation', K(x), in thousands Death ate^, M6(x) (1.) (2.) (3.) (4.) (5.) (6.) Total Urban Rural Total Urban Rural TOTAL 241,720 135,992 105,729 0.0083 0.0076 0.0091 'source: All-Union Census of Population, 1970, 1974, Vol. 1, Table 3, p. 15. The "age unknown" population was allocated proportionately to enumerated totals in each age group. Age group 60-69 was disaggregated by polynomial interpolation (5th degree). 'source: Population of the U.S.S.R., 1973, 1975, p. 141. Data for U.S.S.R. in 1969-70 were rescaled to generate the 1970 totals for urban and rural deaths reported in the same publication on D. 99 (i.e., 1,037,135 urban deaths and 959,182 rural deaths). Since the population totals used in the denominator were those set out above, and these include the "age unknown" totals, our total death rates differ slightly from those presented on p. 141 of the cited source publication.

L i f e t a b l e s d e s c r i b e t h e e v o l u t i o n o f a h y p o t h e t i c a l c o h o r t o f b a b i e s b o r n a t a g i v e n moment a n d e x p o s e d t o a n u n c h a n g i n g a g e - s p e c i f i c s c h e d u l e o f m o r t a l i t y . F o r t h i s c o h o r t o f b a b i e s , t h e y e x h i b i t a number o f p r o b a b i l i t i e s o f d y i n g a n d s u r v i v i n g a n d d e v e l o p t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g e x p e c t a t i o n s o f l i f e a t v a r i o u s a g e s .

C o n v e n t i o n a l l i f e t a b l e s d e a l w i t h m o r t a l i t y , f o c u s o n a s i n g l e r e g i o n a l p o p u l a t i o n , a n d i g n o r e t h e e f f e c t s o f m i g r a t i o n . To i n c o r p o r a t e t h e l a t t e r a n d , a t t h e same t i m e , t o e x t e n d t h e l i f e t a b l e c o n c e p t t o a s p a t i a l p o p u l a t i o n c o m p r i s e d o f s e v e r a l r e g i o n s r e q u i r e s t h e n o t i o n o f a m u l t i r e g i o n a l l i f e t a b l e

( R o g e r s , 1 9 7 3 ) . S u c h l i f e t a b l e s d e s c r i b e t h e e v o l u t i o n o f s e v e r a l r e g i o n a l c o h o r t s o f b a b i e s , a l l b o r n a t a g i v e n moment and e x p o s e d t o a n u n c h a n g i n g m u l t i r e g i o n a l a g e - s p e c i f i c s c h e d u l e o f m o r t a l i t y a n d m i c j r a t i . o n . F o r e a c h r e g i o n a l b i r t h c o h o r t , t h e y p r o v i d e v a r i o u s p r o b a b i l i t i e s o f d y i n g , s u r v i v i n g , a n d

m i g r a t i n g , w h i l e s i m u l t a n e o u s l y g e n e r a t i n g r e g i o n a l e x p e c t a t i o n s o f l i f e a t v a r i o u s a g e s . T h e s e e x p e c t a t i o n s o f l i f e a r e d i s - a g g r e g a t e d b o t h by p l a c e o f b i r t h a n d by p l a c e o f r e s i d e n c e a n d w i l l b e d e n o t e d b y e . ( x ) , w h e r e i i s t h e r e g i o n o f b i r t h a n d j

i 7

i s t h e r e g i o n o f r e s i d e n c e .

E x p e c t a t i o n s o f l i f e i n a m u l t i r e g i o n a l l i f e t a b l e re- f l e c t t h e i n f l u e n c e s o f m o r t a l i t v a n d m i g r a t i o n . T h u s t h e y may b e u s e d a s i n d i c a t o r s o f l e v e l s o f i n t e r n a l m i g r a t i o n , i n a d d i t i o n t o c a r r y i n g o u t t h e i r t r a d i t i o n a l r o l e a s i n d i c a t o r s o f l e v e l s o f m o r t a l i t y . F o r e x a m p l e , c o n s i d e r t h e r e g i o n a l e x p e c t a t i o n s o f l i f e a t b i r t h t h a t a r e s e t o u t i n T a b l e 4 b e l o w f o r t h e U.S.S.R. p o p u l a t i o n w i t h b o t h s e x e s c o m b i n e d . A b a b y b o r n i n a r u r a l a r e a , a n d e x p o s e d t o t h e m u l t i r e g i o n a l

s c h e d u l e o f m o r t a l i t y a n d m i g r a t i o n t h a t p r e v a i l e d i n 1 9 7 0 , c o u l d e x p e c t t o l i v e a n a v e r a g e o f 6 9 . 9 6 y e a r s , o u t o f w h i c h t o t a l a n a v e r a g e o f 4 1 . 1 7 y e a r s would b e l i v e d i n u r b a n a r e a s . T a k i n g t h e l a t t e r a s a f r a c t i o n o f t h e f o r m e r , w e h a v e i n

8 = 0 . 5 8 9 9 a n i n d i c a t o r o f t h e ( l i f e t i m e ) r u r a l t o u r b a n r u

m i g r a t i o n l e v e l t h a t i s i m p l i e d by t h e 1970 m u l t i r e g i o n a l s c h e d u l e . N o t e , t h a t f o r u r b a n t o r u r a l m i g r a t i o n t h i s same i n d i c a t o r d e c r e a s e s t o 0 . 1 4 8 4 .