The Impact of Governance on Returns of Natural Resources: An Empirical Study with References to Arab Countries

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Munich Personal RePEc Archive

The Impact of Governance on Returns of Natural Resources: An Empirical Study with References to Arab Countries

Shaker, Saber Adly

23 March 2017

Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/78094/

MPRA Paper No. 78094, posted 03 Apr 2017 14:50 UTC

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ميحرلا نمحرلا للها مسب

كرتشملا يلودلا يملعلا رمتؤملا

ةيداصتقلااو ةيرادلإا ةيمنتلاو ةمكوحلا

:

تاسسؤملا يف عقاولا :

حومطلاو

-32 /33 /4

3122

ةيندرلأا ةعماجلا

ةحوتفملا سدقلا ةعماج

/ق .إ .ع .ك :مقرــلا م

/25 :خيراتلا 5102

/8 /5 5102

ةرضح ركاش ىلدع رباص روتكدلا ناولح ةعماج / لامعلأا ةرادإو ةراجتلا ةيلك

ةيبرعلا رصم ةيروهمج

Saber_abdelrahman@commerce.helwan.edu.eg

،دعبو ةبيط ةيحت /عوضوملا لوبق

ةيثحبلا ةكراشملا يف

لا رمتؤم نيب كرتشملا ةحوتفملا سدقلا ةعماجو ةيندرلأا ةعماجلا

كرتشملا يلودلا يممعلا رمتؤملا يف ةكراشممل مكفرط نم انتمصو يتلا ةيثحبلا ةكراشملا ىلإ ةراشلإابف

تاسسؤملا يف ةيداصتقلااو ةيرادلإا ةيمنتلاو ةمكوحلا(

ةعماجلا يف لامعلأا ةيمك ومظنت يذلا )حومطلاو عقاولا :

يف ةيداصتقلااو ةيرادلإا مومعلا ةيمكو )ندرلأا( ةيندرلأا تاءارجإ ءوض يفو ،)نيطسمف( ةحوتفملا سدقلا ةعماج

اذى لامعأ يف ةيثحبلا مكتكراشم لوبقب مكملاعإ انرسي ،رمتؤملا اذيل ةيممعلا ةنجملا نم ةدمتعملا ميكحتلا :ناونعب يىو ،رمتؤملا ةيعيبطلا دراوملا دئاوع ىلع ةمكوحلا رثأ

ةيبرعلا لودلل ةراشإ عم ةيقيبطت ةسارد

مت دقو جاردإ ةكراشملا هذى ةمئاق نمض

ةيثحبلا تاكراشملا يف ضرعتس يتلا

اذى تاسمج للاخ رمتؤملا

ةدملا

21 - 22 / 3 / 2012 باحر يف

ندرلأا /نامع /ةيندرلأا ةعماجلا ةدم صيصخت متيس ونأ اممع ،

رشع قئاقد

ضرعل ةكراشملا هذى ةشقانم يرجتسو ،

ةيثحبلا تاكراشملا ةسمج لك يف ضرعت يتلا

.

كديوزت يرجيسو م

وتابيترتو رمتؤملا جمانربب اقحلا

، ةرايز ربع وتادجتسمو رمتؤملا رابخأ ةعباتم ىجريو لا

عقوم

ل ينورتكللاا ا اذي

رمتؤمل . ريدقتلاو مارتحلاا قئاف لوبقب اولضفتو

ةرافوبأ فسوي .د

ةيملعلا ةنجللا سيئر ةيداصتقلااو ةيرادلإا مولعلا ةيلك ديمع

ةعماج ةحوتفملا سدقلا

قانشلا تعفر .د.أ

ةيريضحتلا ةنجللا سيئر لامعلأا ةيلك ديمع

ةيندرلأا ةعماجلا

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ﺔﻴﻌﻴﺒﻄﻟﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﳌﺍ ﺪﺋﺍﻮﻋ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﻤﻛﻮﳊﺍ ﺮﺛﺃ :

ﺔﻴﺑﺮﻌﻟﺍ ﻝﻭﺪﻠﻟ ﺓﺭﺎﺷﺇ ﻊﻣ ﺔﻴﻘﻴﺒﻄﺗ ﺔﺳﺍﺭﺩ

The Impact of Governance on Returns of Natural Resources: An Empirical Study with References to Arab Countries

ــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــ ـــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــ

.د ﺮﻛﺎﺷ ﻰﻟﺪﻋ ﺮﺑﺎﺻ

ةيجرﺎخﻟا ةرﺎجتﻟاو دﺎصتقﻻا سرﺪم –

لﺎمﻋﻷا ةرادإو ةرﺎجتﻟا ةيلﻛ –

ناولح ةعمﺎج

Saber_abdelrahman@commerce.helwan.edu.eg

ـــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــ ــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــ

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2

صخلم

2013

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3

648.8 2014

21 2014

ثحبلا تاملك :

ةمكوحلا –

ةيعيبطلا دراوملا –

ةيبرعلا لودلا

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4

Abstract

The main purpose of this research is to investigate the impact of governance (especially of natural resources) on returns of natural resources sector (specifically oil and natural gas). In addition, It also examines whether governance turn point exists or not.

The natural resources governance index used in this research was drawn from the Revenue Watch Institute for the year 2013 while the natural resources rent, GDP, and natural resources depletion data were obtained from the World Bank Database. The study covered fifty-six countries; ten of them are Arabian countries. And it adopted the cross-sectional data framework, the Ordinary Least Square estimation technique is used for the analysis.

The research found that governance, GDP, and depletion of natural resources impact positively on the returns of natural resources. The research also found that there is a turning point for governance which means that after a given level of governance the significant positive impact diverted to be significant negative impact. The research advocates that the last result may be due to the maximized governance after optimal level may lead to bureaucracy or/and combat the corruption in natural resources sector which lead to a drop in natural resources returns.

The results suggest that firstly, it's necessary to provide a legislative guarantee to ensure ease of access to data related to the natural resources sector. Secondly, apply the disclosure standards of the contracts entered by the government with companies worked in the natural resources sector.

Thirdly, publish periodic reports on the financial receipts and licensing

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5

revenues and assess both of the economic and environmental returns in the exploitation of natural resources projects. Fourthly, application of accountability standards begins with setting clear selection criterions for top management in both of public companies and governmental agencies related to the natural resources sector. Fifthly, publish financial data of natural resources funds in terms of assets and how to manage those funds. Sixthly, encourage the cooperation with international organizations which interested in governance, for example, joining the World Bank's initiative to promote transparency in the extractive industries, which indicate to good intentions from the government to apply the principles of governance.

Finally, by analyzing the returns of natural resources - oil and natural gas only - in terms of value in Arab countries, it notes that there are ten Arab countries that have about 648.8 billion US Dollar in the year 2014.

Therefore, the share of the ten Arab countries is about 21% of the total revenue of the natural resources in the world in 2014. This fact indicates that Arab countries are a major player in the natural resources market. So, any attempts to reform the natural resources sector will lead to positive effects on the whole economy performance.

Key words: Governance – Natural resources – Arab countries

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6

. 1 ةمدقم

Tolmie, 2007, P.1

Enron 2001

OECD, 2009, P.12

648.8



2014 World Bank Database

2014 3

21 2014

نميلا ،برغملا ،نيرحبلا ،ايبيل ،رصم ،رئازجلا ،رطق ،تيوكلا ،قارعلا ،ةيدوعسلا ةيبرعلا ةكلمملا نم لك ىف ةرشعلا لودلا هذه لثمتت

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7

230 ثحبلا ةلكشم

1 2 ثحبلل نيتيضرف

1 2

ثحبلا ةيجهنمب



56  10

 Cross- 

Sectional Data OLS

2013 2017

ثحبلا ةطخ

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8

. 2 ةمكوحلا موهفم ةيعيبطلا دراوملا ىلع قيبطتلا عم



World Bank, 1993, P.14 UNDP 

UNDP,

1997, P.5



OECD, 1999, P.10

 Pierre Jon, 2000, P.2

 IFC, 2000, P.3

.

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9

Economic Governance 

Dixit Avinash, 2008, P.2

RGI

58 2013 Revenue Watch Institute, 2013, P.6



20 

40 

20 

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10

20 . 3 عقاو ةمكوح ةيبرعلا لودلا ىف ةيعيبطلا دراوملا

1.3 ةيعيبطلا دراوملا ةمكوحل ىلامجﻹا ءادﻷا

25

1

مقر لوﺪج )

:(1 ةيﺑﺮعﻟا لوﺪﻟا ﻰف ةيعيبطﻟا دراومﻟا ةمﻛوحﻟ ﻰﻟﺎمجﻹا ءادﻷا

ةﻟوﺪﻟا ﻰمﻟﺎعﻟا بيتﺮتﻟا

مييقتﻟا ةميق

ﺮﺷﺆم RGI

برغملا ًايئزج لوبقم 25

53

قارعلا فيعض 29

47

نيرحبلا فيعض 31

47

نميلا فيعض 37

43

رصم فيعض 38

43 فيعض 42 تيوكلا

41 رصقُم 45 رئازجلا

38 رصقُم 48 ةيدوعسلا ةيبرعلا ةكلمملا

34 رصقُم 54 رطق

26

ايبيل رصقُم 55

19

ةيبرعلا لودلا طسوتم

* 39

ثحابلا ةطساوب ةبوسحم Source: Revenue Watch Institute (2013), The Resource Governance Index.

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11

2.3 ىسسؤملاو ىنوناقلا عضولا روحم

2 Elbadawai, 2004

مقر لوﺪج )

:(2 ﻰسسﺆمﻟاو ﻰنونﺎقﻟا عضوﻟا ةيﺑﺮعﻟا لوﺪﻟا ﻰف ةيعيبطﻟا دراومﻟا ةمﻛوحﻟ

ةﻟوﺪﻟا مييقتﻟا

ﻟا ةميق

ﺮﺷﺆم

قارعلا ًايئزج لوبقم

57 ًايئزج لوبقم نميلا

57 ًايئزج لوبقم رئازجلا

57 فيعض برغملا

48 رصقُم رصم

40 رصقُم نيرحبلا

38 رصقُم ةيدوعسلا ةيبرعلا ةكلمملا

30 رصقُم تيوكلا

28 رصقُم رطق

15 رصقُم ايبيل

11

*

38 ثحابلا ةطساوب ةبوسحم

Source: Revenue Watch Institute (2013), The Resource Governance Index.

3.3 ا روحم ىموكحلا حاصفﻹ

OECD, 2010 3

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12

مقر لوﺪج )

:(3 ﺎصفﻹا ﻰموكحﻟا ح ةيﺑﺮعﻟا لوﺪﻟا ﻰف ةيعيبطﻟا دراومﻟا ةمﻛوحﻟ

ةميق

ﻟا ﺮﺷﺆم

برغملا ًايئزج لوبقم

60 ًايئزج لوبقم قارعلا

52 فيعض نميلا

46 فيعض رصم

44 فيعض تيوكلا

43 رصقُم رئازجلا

41 رصقُم نيرحبلا

14

*

4.3 ةدوجلاو ةباقرلاو ةياقولا تاءارجإ روحم

4 IMF,2015

مقر لوﺪج )

:(4 ةدوجﻟاو ةﺑﺎقﺮﻟاو ةيﺎقوﻟا تاءاﺮجإ ةيﺑﺮعﻟا لوﺪﻟا ﻰف ةيعيبطﻟا دراومﻟا ةمﻛوحﻟ

ﻟا ةميق

ﺮﺷﺆم

قارعلا ًايئزج لوبقم

63 ًايئزج لوبقم نيرحبلا

59 ًايئزج لوبقم برغملا

56 ًايئزج لوبقم نميلا

52 فيعض رصم

48

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13

تيوكلا رصقُم

15

*

5.3 تازفحمﻟا

5 IMF, October 2015, P.3

مقر لوﺪج )

:(5 تازفحم ةيﺑﺮعﻟا لوﺪﻟا ﻰف ةيعيبطﻟا دراومﻟا ةمﻛوح

ﻟا ةميق

ﺮﺷﺆم

رطق ًايئزج لوبقم

66 ًايئزج لوبقم نيرحبلا

58 ًايئزج لوبقم تيوكلا

57 فيعض برغملا

42 فيعض رصم

26 رصقُم نميلا

10 ⁹ رصقُم قارعلا

* 36

ثحابلا ةطساوب ةبوسحم Source: Revenue Watch Institute (2013), The Resource Governance Index.

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14

. 4 ةيقيبطتلا ةساردلا

ثحبلا تاريغتمو تانايبلا ةعيبط 1.4

cross-sectional data 56

10 NRGI 2013

1

مقر ةلداعم )

(:1 RENT = f (β0 ,GDP^β1, DEPLTION^β2, β3 NRGI, β4 NRGI²)

RENT GDP

DEPLTION

،

World bank,

world development indicators database

NRGI

natural resources governance institute NRGI

²

β

0

)

... β1

( β4

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15

1 2

E

مقر ةلداعم )

(:2

LOG RENT = β0 +β1LOGGDP + β2 DEPLTION + β3 NRGI + β3 NRGI²+ E

2.4 سﺎيقﻟا جئﺎتن

OLS

LOG RENT = -3.5889 +1.0105 LOGGDP + 0.0514 DEPLTION + 0.0380 NRGI - 0.0004 NRGI²

-2.70 2.26

6.77 16.68

T-Statistics

Durbin–Watson stat = 1.85 Prob. F

Statistics=0 R²=88%

Adjusted R²= 87%

 1.01 1

 0.05

1  3.8

1

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16

turn point

Hyden

etal,2003 Huda etal, 2008

Bhattacharyya & Hodler, 2010

Leite & Weidmann, 1999

Kuznets

Sun Bo, 2011



R

²

1 Adj.R

²

88

87

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17

Autocorrelation 2

Durbin–Watson 1.85

Breusch – Godfrey correlation LM 5

Heteroscedasticity 3

Harvey 5

Homoscedasticity Multicollinearity 4

48 cumulative sum control chart 5

CUSUM

1 5

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رﺪقمﻟا جذومنﻟا راﺮقتسإ رﺎبتخإ

2011

Emara and Chiu, 2016 2009

2013

EAC

18

مقر لكﺷ )

:( 1 رﺪقمﻟا جذومنﻟا راﺮقتسإ رﺎبتخإ

اب ةقﻼعلاو ةقباسلا تاساردلا ةيلاحلا ةساردل

Khan Mukaram Ali, 2014

2002 2011

Emara and Chiu, 2016 2009

Orayo and Mose, 2016

. 5 اب ةقﻼعلاو ةقباسلا تاساردلا

Khan Mukaram Ali, 2014

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19

1960 2013

EAC

Omoteso and Mobolaii, 2014 2002

2009

Fayissa and Nsiah, 2010 28 1995

2005

Yerrabati and Hawkes, 2015

Meta analysis 554

1980

2012

Al-Bassam, 2013

213 2006

2011

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20

Al-Bassam, 2013

Tsani Stella,2012 27

Resources Curse

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21

Ahmed Paiman, 2016

Turn Point

Al-Bassam, 2013

. 6 تايصوتلا

ىعيرشت نامض ريفوت 1

حاصفﻹا ريياعم قيبطت 2

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22

ةلءاسملاو ةبساحملا ريياعم قيبطت 3

ىلودلا نواعتلا 4

2003

2017

56

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Afghanistan Cameroon

Algeria Canada

Angola Chile

Australia China Azerbaijan Colombia Bahrain Congo, Dem.

Rep.

Bolivia Ecuador Botswana Egypt, Arab

Rep.

Brazil Equatorial Guinea Cambodia Gabon

23

قحلمﻟا

/ 1 ةيقيبطتﻟا ةسارﺪﻟا ةنيﻋ

Ghana Malaysia Philippines

Guinea Mexico Qatar

India Mongolia Russian

Federation Indonesia Morocco Saudi Arabia

Iran Mozambique Sierra Leone

Congo, Dem. Iraq Myanmar South Africa

Kazakhstan Nigeria Tanzania Egypt, Arab Kuwait Norway Trinidad and

Tobago Liberia Papua New

Guinea Turkmenistan

Libya Peru United Kingdom

/ 2 رﺪقمﻟا جذومنﻟا جﺮخم

United States Venezuela, RB Vietnam Saudi Arabia Yemen, Rep.

Sierra Leone Zambia South Africa Zimbabwe

Trinidad and

Turkmenistan United Kingdom

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24

/ 3 رﺎبتخإ Breusch-Godfrey

/ 4 رﺎبتخإ Harvey

/ 5

طﺎبتﻹا ةفوفصم

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25 References

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