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| October 15, 2015 |
October 15, 2015
Dr. Gunnar Wiedenfels Financials
Growing to the next level
Capital Markets Day 2015
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| October 15, 2015 |
We have shown a strong financial performance since 2009
Market cap increase
~EUR 9bn
Net debt reduction
Dividends paid Underlying net
income growth
>EUR 2.3bn
>EUR 1.5bn
>EUR 250m
Note: Market cap increase 09/2015 vs. 12/2008, net debt reduction 06/2015 vs. YE 2008, underlying net income growth LTM H1 2015 vs. FY 2008, dividends paid in 2009-H1 2015
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Continuing growth also in H1 2015 …
Continuing operations
H1 2015
Revenues
+8.6%
Recurring EBITDA Underlying net income
+14.8%
+EUR 31.0m
+12.2%
+EUR 154.9m +EUR 24.3m
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… achieving key financial milestones
Note: ProSiebenSat.1 free-float market cap rank as of Sept. 30, 2015
Key financials supporting our FY 2015 outlook and well ahead of 2018 growth targets
Positive outlook for H2 2015 and FY 2015 targets confirmed
High pay-out ratio and attractive dividend yield maintained
ProSiebenSat.1 established as high-grade borrower in debt capital market, debt maturities only in 2020/21
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✔
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ProSiebenSat.1 ranks no. 26 in terms of free-float market cap in
German Prime Standard ✔
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We have consistently increased revenues and recurring EBITDA
Continuing operations. LTM H1 2015 revenues EUR 3,030.5m, LTM H1 2015 recurring EBITDA EUR 878.3m
Group LTM revenues [in EUR m, %]
1.800 2.100 2.400 2.700 3.000 3.300
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Revenues
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
30,0%
35,0%
600 700 800 900 1.000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Rec. EBITDA (LHS) Rec. EBITDA margin (RHS)
CAGR+6.4%
LTM rec. EBITDA/rec. EBITDA margin [in EUR m, %]
CAGR +9.1%
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And we have accelerated recurring EBITDA growth also by adding lower-margin but strongly growing businesses
Continuing operations
Group rec. EBITDA growth, rec. EBITDA margin [in %]
+2,7%
+6,1%
+7,2%
+8,1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
2012 2013 2014 LTM H1 2015
Rec. EBITDA margin 31.6%
Rec. EBITDA margin 30.3%
Rec. EBITDA margin 29.5%
Rec. EBITDA margin 29.0%
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Delivering above-average total shareholder return based on strong operational EPS growth over a decade
Source: Bloomberg (TSR 12/2004-09/2015), EPS ProSiebenSat.1 (2004: EUR 0.62 (211.0m shares), 2014: EUR 1.96 (213.3m shares); EPS peer group CAGR 2004-2014 market-cap weighted; Northern European peer group market including ITV, M6, MTG, RTL Group, TF1; US peer group including 21st Century Fox, CBS, Discovery Communications, Time Warner, Viacom, Walt Disney
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
ProSiebenSat.1 Northern European peers US peers
+4,2%
+7,3%
+12,2%
+3,6%
Northern European peer group US peer group ProSiebenSat.1
EPS CAGR based on operating/financial result EPS CAGR based on share-buybacks
Total shareholder return [indexed]
EPS growth and contribution
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Progress in the past and positive outlook allows us to raise our 2018 financial targets
Continuing operations
Group revenue development and target [in EUR m]
1.400 1.900 2.400 2.900 3.400
Group Revenues (LTM) Initial 2018 target projection
500 600 700 800 900 1.000
Rec. EBITDA (LTM) Initial 2018 target projection CAGR: +10.6%
CAGR: +7.2% CAGR: +5.8% CAGR: +6.8%
Rec. EBITDA development and target (mid-point)
[in EUR m]
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New Group revenue growth target of EUR 1.85bn vs. 2012
Continuing operations 300
600
100
1.000
+75
+600
+175
+850
Broadcasting German-speaking
Digital & Adjacent Content Production &
Global Sales
Group
Initial 2018 target New 2018 target
375
1,200
275
1,850
Former and new 2018 financial targets [in EUR m]
New targeted Group rec. EBITDA growth 2012-2018: EUR 350m
Segment
Segment rec.
EBITDA margin profile 2018E
Broadcasting
German-speaking >30%
Digital & Adjacent 15-20%, subject to mix
Content Production &
Global Sales ≥10%
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Overview of 2018 revenue and recurring EBITDA targets
Continuing operations 1) in comparison to mid-point of initial recurring EBITDA target range
Reported Initial target New target Target change
2012
∆
2012-18 2018
CAGR 2012-18
∆
2012-18 2018
CAGR
12-18 ∆ ∆
Group revenues 2,356 +1,000 3,356 +6.1% +1,850 4,206 +10.1% +850 +85.0%
Broadcasting German-speaking 1,926 +300 2,226 +2.4% +375 2,301 +3.0% +75 +25.0%
Digital & Adjacent 335 +600 935 +18.7% +1,200 1,535 +28.9% +600 +100.0%
Content Production & Global Sales 95 +100 195 +12.7% +275 370 +25.4% +175 +175.0%
Group rec. EBITDA (lower end)
745
+200 945 +4.0%
+350 1,095 +6.6% +125
1)+55.6%
Group rec. EBITDA (upper end) +250 995 +4.9%
2018 financial targets
[in EUR m]
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We aim at approx. EUR 1.2bn revenue growth vs. H1 2015, a CAGR of ~10%
Continuing operations 1.926
182
2.108
193
2.301 335
343
677
858
1.535
95
150 246
125 370
0 500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000
2012 ∆ 2012-H1 2015 LTM H1 2015 ∆ H1 2015-2018 2018
Broadcasting German-speaking Digital & Adjacent Content Production & Global Sales
2,356
+674 3,031
+1,176 4,206
CAGR
+10.6%
CAGR
+9.8%
2018 financial target bridge by segment
[in EUR m]
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Positive developments in all three segments drive upgrade of 2018 targets
Broadcasting German-speaking
Continuing growth environment in TV advertising and distribution
Growing reach and improved monetization of new channels
Continuing efficiency of content exploitation accross channel portfolio
Digital & Adjacent
Gaining scale in Ventures & Commerce and Digital Entertainment business
Further internationalization of SevenVentures business (‘importer of choice‘)
Leveraging TV power, vertical synergies and scale of commerce portfolio
Content Production & Global Sales
Broadening footprint in English-speaking markets
Increasing benefits from traveling formats and returning shows
Growing scripted and non-scripted catalogue through content investments
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Including revenue contribution of recent M&A, required pro-forma CAGR amounts to 7.5%
Continuing operations, 2015 M&A includes VERIVOX, CDS, Virtual Minds, Smartstream TV and Etraveli
Apart from recent M&A, new targets are largely based on organic
revenue growth assumptions
Additional larger bolt-on M&A to provide upside to 2018 revenue and recurring EBITDA targets
2.108 2.301
677
231
945
1.535 246
370
0 1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000
LTM H1 2015 Baseline effect 2015 M&A (LTM)
Targeted growth H1 2015-2018
2018 target
Broadcasting German-speaking Digital & Adjacent Content Production & Global Sales
4,206
3,031
CAGR H1 2015-
2018:
+7.5%
2018 financial target bridge
[in EUR m]
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We create value through M&A by applying our synergy playbook
1) Recurring EBITDA w/o airtime 2) static investment return calculated as FCF 2015E w/o airtime attributable to P7S1 stake over cumulated fulfilled purchase price components
Categories
~ +20% ~ +5% ~ +35% ~ +70%
Mid to high single-digit Low double-digit
~ +10% ~ +5% > +50% > +20%
67.45% 100% 100% 50.1%
Ø 4.9x EV/rec. EBITDA
1)Δ ~ -2%pts Δ ~ +10%pts Δ ~ +30%pts Δ ~ +25%pts
Current stake Revenue growth
(LTM CAGR closing date-H1 2015)
Market growth
(CAGR 2013-2015E)
Recurring EBITDA
1)margin
(closing-LTM H1 2015)
Investment return
2)(2015E)
Implied acquisition multiple
(H1 2015 LTM)
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Digital & Adjacent segment is expected to generate >EUR 1.5bn in revenue and ≥EUR 280 in recurring EBITDA in 2018
Continuing operations
Digital & Adjacent revenues [in EUR m]
335
677
935
1,535
0 300 600 900 1.200 1.500
2012 Actuals LTM H1 2015 Initial 2018 target
New 2018 target
85
139
187
280
0 100 200 300
2012 Actuals LTM H1 2015 Initial 2018 target
New 2018 target
Implied rec. EBITDA
CAGR 2012-18
+22%
Digital & Adjacent rec. EBITDA
[in EUR m]
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Significant debt capacity secured at attractive terms to finance growth priorities within leverage target range
1) Interest expenses from borrowings including finance leases and related financial charges
Debt structure/maturities [in EUR m]
700
April 2020 April 2020
1,400
April 2021
Term
Loan
(undrawn)
RCF Notes
600 600
New Term
LoanApril 2020
Overall term debt incl. existing notes now EUR 2.7bn - sufficient funding to implement our mid-term growth plan EUR 600m RCF to cater for working capital and
seasonal needs – undrawn at YE 2015
Debt maturities only in 2020/21 – to be extended at appropriate point in time
Current attractive funding terms leading to
~EUR 85m p.a. financing costs
1)in 2016-18
New EUR 700m term loan (bullet) closed in mid
October 2015
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Confirmation of our financial policy and acquisition strategy
Continuing operations 1) Net debt/LTM recurring EBITDA 2) Based on underlying net income
Financial leverage target range
1)1.5-2.5x
Dividend pay-out ratio
2)80-90%
Acquisition strategy smaller/larger bolt-on
and media investments
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Maintaining a solid financial profile is a key element of our growth strategy
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Summary and comparison of former and new financial targets
Continuing operations 1) 2012-2018