CORE-SCCER CONFERENCE, 20 November 2020, Bern
CORE-SCCER CONFERENCE, 20 November 2020, Bern
Energy research conference, 20 November 2020, Biel
Flying in a Climate-Constrained World
Reconciling Europe’s Demand for Aviation with its Climate Ambition
FUEL PRODUCTION PATHS WHY IT MATTERS
Global air traffic is expected to triple by 2050 compared to 2015. In order to curb CO2 emissions from global aviation, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) established the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme in International
Aviation (CORSIA). It aspires to cap CO2 emissions at 2020 levels. If aviation were to contribute its fair share to a carbon- neutral future by 2050, emissions reductions would have to be even higher. While other measures (operational or aircraft
design improvements) can reduce aircraft emissions to a
certain extent, only Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs) can bring their CO2 footprint down to zero.*
OUR RESEARCH
We assess the costs of SAFs via a cost optimization of future production sites dependent on the potential of on- shore wind and solar power in European countries. The
findings of this research project will provide guidance for policy-makers and the industry regarding their
strategies towards a cost-efficient supply of SAFs, considering a ramp-up until 2050.
Research supported by:
Audi AG (Dr. Hermann Pengg)
by Maximilian Held*, Kyle Seymour*, Saskia Adam*, Dr. Gil Georges, and Prof. Konstantinos Boulouchos
*) These authors contributed equally to this poster.
/
Laboratory for Aerothermochemistry and Combustion Systems (LAV), Energy Systems Group
held@lav.mavt.ethz.ch Solar
irradiance
Batt- ery Land
availability On-shore
wind Wind
power plants Solar PV plants
DAC
PEM EL
CO2-Storage
H2-Storage FT-Synthesis
Sustain- able Jet Fuel (44%)
Other
products
(56%)
Abbreviations:
DAC = Direct Air Capture of CO2, PEMEL = Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis, FT = Fischer-Tropsch
KEY RESULTS
SAF costs in 2030
to provide the total national jet fuel demand of 2018 with SAFs, in EUR per liter
(marginal costs)
Jet fuel demand
in 2018, in liter per capita
Electricity demand in 2030
to provide the total national jet fuel demand of 2018 with SAFs, as share of current (2018) gross domestic electricity production
FUEL PRODUCTION COSTS
Conclusions:
§ A pan-European SAF production strategy promises significant cost reductions compared to the domestic supply of each country’s own demand.
§ Switzerland is likely to be a net importer of SAFs.
§ The future SAF demand will create a high, additional demand for renewable electricity in the future.
Portugal
(low costs)
Switzer-
land 250 4.2** 100%
167 2.0 100%
in EUR/liter, w./o. considering land availability constraints 5
4 3
1.5 >5
Pan-European
SAF sourcing 136 2.1 60%
Reference: *) Seymour K., Held M., Georges G., Boulouchos K. (2020): "Fuel Estimation in Air
Transportation: Modeling global fuel consumption for commercial aviation” in Transportation Research Part D:
Transport and Environment, DOI: 10.1016/j.trd.2020.102528
If you are interested in learning more about the modelling assumptions, underlying costs data, etc., please contact the corresponding author. Note that the presented figures are preliminary findings and may change for different
assumptions on costs, efficiencies, land availability, etc. More thoroughly assessed findings will be published in 2021.
2
2.4
2.3
Fossil jet fuel:
~0.4 EUR/liter
**) Switzerland can only satisfy its own demand in the case where croplands are included.
Lower costs, if shrublands, sparsely vege- tated land, & croplands are available.
Higher costs, if croplands are excluded.
