• Keine Ergebnisse gefunden

Ideology and cultural policy

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2022

Aktie "Ideology and cultural policy"

Copied!
24
0
0

Wird geladen.... (Jetzt Volltext ansehen)

Volltext

(1)

Learning and Peer Effects

Niklas Potrafke

Research Paper Series

Thurgau Institute of Economics and Department of Economics at the University of Konstanz

No. 49 april 2010

Ideology and cultural policy

Konstanzer Online-Publikations-System (KOPS) URN: http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:352-opus-116578

URL: http://kops.ub.uni-konstanz.de/volltexte/2010/11657/

(2)

Ideology and cultural policy

Niklas Potrafke!"

#$%&'()%*+",-".,$)*/$0"

"

12%)"&'()%,$3"45(%6"!78"9:!:"

"

Abstract

;+" '</=%$%$>" &,*%$>" ?'2/&%,(" %$" /" ('-'('$@A=" ,$" *2'" B,$)*(AB*%,$" ,-" /" B,$B'(*" 2/66" %$"

C'(=/$+8" D" )2,E" *2/*" 5,6%*%B/6" %@',6,>+" %$-6A'$B')" BA6*A(/6" 5,6%B+F" 12'" (')A6*)" )A>>')*" *2/*"

(')%)*/$B'"*,"*2'"B,$B'(*"2/66"E/)"5/(*%BA6/(6+")*(,$>"%$"'6'B*,(/6"@%)*(%B*)"%$"E2%B2"=/G,(%*%')"

,-"B%*%0'$)"&,*'"-,("*2'"),B%/6"@'=,B(/*)F";+"B,$*(/)*8"B,$)*%*A'$*)",-"(%>2*E%$>"5/(*%')"&,*'@"

=,('" %$" -/&,(" ,-" *2'" 5(,G'B*F" 12%)" &,*%$>" 5/**'($" %$@%B/*')" *2/*" BA6*A(/6" 5,6%B+" %)" %@',6,>+H

%$@AB'@F" 12'" @%('B*H@'=,B(/*%B" &,*'" />/%$)*" *2'" B,$B'(*" 2/66" %)" $,*" %$" 6%$'" E%*2" *2'" &,*%$>"

?'2/&%,(" ,-" *2'" ('5(')'$*/*%&')" %$" *2'" B%*+" B,A$B%6F" I+" -%$@%$>)" *2A)" )2,E" *2/*" *2'" &,*%$>"

?'2/&%,(" ,-" 5,6%*%B/6" ('5(')'$*/*%&')" =/+" ?'" @'B,A56'@" -(,=" *2'" 5('-'('$B')" ,-" *2'%("

B,$)*%*A'$*)" '&'$" %$" B6,)'6+" J$%*" GA(%)@%B*%,$)" %$" E2%B2" *2'" 5(%$B%5/6H/>'$*" ('6/*%,$)2%5"

?'*E''$"&,*'()"/$@"('5(')'$*/*%&')"%)"A)A/66+"*2,A>2*"*,"-/&,("*2'"5(%$B%5/6)F"I,(',&'(8"*2%)"

@'B,A56%$>" 2/)" ?''$" @,BA='$*'@" -,(" /" 5,6%B+" %))A'" *2/*" @,')" $,*" ('KA%('" )A?)*/$*%/6"

%$-,(=/*%,$",(")5'B%/6%0'@"J$,E6'@>'"*,"?'"'&/6A/*'@"?A*"(/*2'("&,*'()L"@'B%)%,$)"/('"?/)'@",$"

%@',6,>%B/6"B,$&%B*%,$)F"

"

Keywords:"BA6*A(/6"5,6%B+8"%@',6,>+8"5/(*%)/$"5,6%*%B)8"('-'('$@A=8"@%('B*"@'=,B(/B+"

JEL Classification:"M!:8"NO98"NOP8"QO9"

""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""

!"#$%&'()%*+",-".,$)*/$08"N'5/(*='$*",-"RB,$,=%B)8";,<"!SP8"NHOPTUO".,$)*/$08"C'(=/$+8"V2,$'3"W"T7"OUS!"

PP"9!SO8"X/<3"W"T7"OUS!"PP"S!S:F"R=/%63"$%J6/)F5,*(/-J'YA$%HJ,$)*/$0F@'"

D"*2/$J"Z2(%)*%/$";G[($)J,&8"\/()"X'6@8"4(+'"Q%66=/$8"Q'%$(%B2"#()5(A$>"/$@"*2'"5/(*%B%5/$*)",-"*2'";(,E$";/>"

]'=%$/("/*"*2'"#$%&'()%*+",-".,$)*/$0"%$"45(%6"9:!:"-,("&'(+"2'65-A6"B,=='$*)8"2%$*)"/$@")A>>')*%,$)8"./*G/"

;'($2/(@"-(,="*2'"R6'B*,(/6"^--%B'".,$)*/$0"-,("5(,&%@%$>"*2'"@/*/",$"*2'"&,*%$>",A*B,=')8"/$@"R?'(2/(@";/%'("

-(,="*2'"]*/*%)*%B/6"^--%B'".,$)*/$0"-,("5(,&%@%$>"*2'"@/*/",$"('6%>%,$F!

!

(3)

" 9

1. Introduction"

V,6%*%B/6" %@',6,>+" %)" 6%J'6+" *," %$-6A'$B'" BA6*A(/6" 5,6%B+F" 12'" B,$)*%*A'$B%')" ,-"

B,$)'(&/*%&'" 5/(*%')" /('" '<5'B*'@" *," )A55,(*" *(/@%*%,$/6" BA6*A(/6" &/6A')" )AB2" /)" *2'/*(')8"

B,$B'(*)8",5'(/)"/$@"/(*"'<2%?%*%,$)"=,('"),"*2/$"&,*'()",-"*2'"6'-*")AB2"/)"?6A'HB,66/("E,(J'()"

_'F>F"]B2A60'"/$@"#()5(A$>"9:::`F9"]B2,6/()"2/&'"%$&')*%>/*'@"2,E">,&'($='$*"%@',6,>+"2/)"

%$-6A'$B'@" '<5'$@%*A(')" ,$" BA6*A(/6" /--/%()F" 12'" '&%@'$B'" %)" =%<'@F" D$" C'(=/$+8" '=5%(%B/6"

)*A@%')")2,E"*2/*"(%>2*E%$>"5/(*%')"56/B'"=,('"'=52/)%)",$"BA6*A('F"X,("'</=56'8"]B2A60'"/$@"

a,)'" _!77P`" '</=%$'" *2'" @'*'(=%$/$*)" ,-" 5A?6%B" ,(B2')*(/" -A$@%$>" %$" C'(=/$+" /$@" *2'%("

(')A6*)" )A>>')*" *2/*" B,$)'(&/*%&'" /$@" 6%?'(/6" 5,6%*%B%/$)" *'$@" *," )A55,(*" B6/))%B/6" ,(B2')*(/)"

=,('" *2/$" ),B%/6" @'=,B(/*%B" /$@" C(''$" 5,6%*%B%/$)" @,FS" a%>2*E%$>" >,&'($='$*)" 2/&'" )5'$*"

=,('",$"BA6*A(/6"/--/%()"%$"*2'"C'(=/$")*/*')"_V,*(/-J'"9:!!`FT"C,&'($='$*"%@',6,>+"@%@"$,*8"

2,E'&'(8" %$-6A'$B'" BA6*A(/6" '<5'$@%*A(')" %$" 4A)*(%/" _C'*0$'(" 9::9`" /$@" X6'=%)2"

=A$%B%5/6%*%')"_b'(BJ"'*"/6F"9::P`FU"

c'*" D" /=" $,*" /E/('" ,-" /$+" '=5%(%B/6" )*A@+" *2/*" '</=%$')" *2'" %$-6A'$B'" ,-" 5,6%*%B/6"

%@',6,>+",$"BA6*A(/6"5,6%B+"%$"/"('-'('$@A=F"4>/%$)*"*2'"?/BJ>(,A$@"*2/*"5,6%*%B/6"5('-'('$B')"

%$"('-'('$@/"=/+"?'"?'**'("*(/$)=%**'@"*2/$"?+"5,6%*%B/6"('5(')'$*/*%&')"_'F>F8"X'6@"/$@"]/&%,0"

!77O8"X'6@"/$@"I/*)A)/J/"9::S8"X'6@"'*"/6F"9::P8"9:!:8"9:!!`8"%$&')*%>/*%$>"*2'"%$-6A'$B'",-"

5,6%*%B/6"%@',6,>+",$"BA6*A(/6"5,6%B+"%$"/"('-'('$@A="%)"/"E,(*2E2%6'"'$@'/&,(F"

D$" *2%)" 5/5'(8" D" *2'('-,('" '</=%$'" -,(" *2'" -%()*" *%='" E2'*2'(" 5,6%*%B/6" %@',6,>+" 2/)"

%$-6A'$B'@"&,*%$>"?'2/&%,("%$"/"('-'('$@A=",$"BA6*A(/6"5,6%B+F"D"'=56,+"@/*/",$"*2'"&,*'",$"

*2'"B,$)*(AB*%,$",-"*2'"B,$B'(*"2/66"%$".,$)*/$0"_C'(=/$+`"-(,="I/(B2"9!8"9:!:F"12'"(')A6*)"

""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""

9"]''"./+"_!7PS`",$"%@',6,>+"/$@")*/*'"B,$*(,6",-"*2'"/(*)"%$"),B%/6%)*"),B%'*%')F"

S"^$"*2'"%$-6A'$B'",-"%$*'(')*">(,A5)",$"5'(-,(=%$>"5A?6%B"/(*)"%$)*%*A*%,$)"%$"C'(=/$+")''".('?)"/$@"

V,=='('2$'"_!77U`F"

T"D$"/")%=%6/("&'%$8"(%>2*E%$>">,&'($='$*)")5'$*"=,('",$"A$%&'()%*%')"*2/$"6'-*E%$>">,&'($='$*)"%$"*2'"C'(=/$"

)*/*')" _^?'($@,(-'(" /$@" ]*'%$'(" 9::O8" V,*(/-J'" 9:!!`F" ]B2A60'L)" _9::P`" (')A6*)" )A>>')*" *2/*" B,$)'(&/*%&'"

5,6%*%B%/$)")5'$*"=,('",$"(')'/(B2"%$"('6/*%&'"*'(=)F"12'"('/),$"=/+"E'66"?'"*2/*"*2'"B6%'$*'6'",-"6'-*%)*"5/(*%')"

5(,-%*"('6/*%&'6+"6%**6'"-(,="5A?6%B"'<5'$@%*A(')",$"2%>2'("'@AB/*%,$F"D$"]E%*0'(6/$@8"),B%/6"@'=,B(/*%B"%@',6,>+"

2/)"2/@"/"$'>/*%&'"%$-6A'$B'",$"5(%&/*%0%$>"'@AB/*%,$"_I'(0+$"/$@"#()5(A$>"9::U`F"

U";(,,J)"_9::!`"'=56,+)"@/*/"-(,="*2'"#]"C'$'(/6"],B%/6"]A(&'+"/$@"-%$@)"*2/*"/")'6-H@')B(%?'@"dB,$)'(&/*%&'e"

%@',6,>+"5,)%*%&'6+"%$-6A'$B'@",55,)%*%,$"*,">,&'($='$*"/(*)"-A$@%$>"E2'('/)"/")'6-H@')B(%?'@"d6%?'(/6e"%@',6,>+"

$'>/*%&'6+"%$-6A'$B'@",55,)%*%,$"*,">,&'($='$*"/(*)"-A$@%$>F""

(4)

" S

)A>>')*"*2/*"(')%)*/$B'"*,"*2'"B,$B'(*"2/66"E/)"5/(*%BA6/(6+")*(,$>"%$"'6'B*,(/6"@%)*(%B*)"%$"E2%B2"

=/G,(%*%')" ,-" B%*%0'$)" &,*'" -,(" *2'" ),B%/6" @'=,B(/*)F" ;+" B,$*(/)*8" B,$)*%*A'$*)" ,-" (%>2*E%$>"

5/(*%')"&,*'@"=,('"%$"-/&,(",-"*2'"5(,G'B*F"12%)"&,*%$>"5/**'($"%$@%B/*')"*2/*"BA6*A(/6"5,6%B+"%)"

%@',6,>+H%$@AB'@F"12'"@%('B*H@'=,B(/*%B"&,*'"/>/%$)*"*2'"B,$B'(*"2/66"%)"$,*"%$"6%$'"E%*2"*2'"

&,*%$>" ?'2/&%,(" ,-" *2'" ('5(')'$*/*%&')" %$" *2'" B%*+" B,A$B%6F" I+" -%$@%$>)" *2A)" )2,E" *2/*" *2'"

&,*%$>" ?'2/&%,(" ,-" 5,6%*%B/6" ('5(')'$*/*%&')" =/+" ?'" @'B,A56'@" -(,=" *2'" 5('-'('$B')" ,-" *2'%("

B,$)*%*A'$*)" '&'$" %$" B6,)'6+" J$%*" GA(%)@%B*%,$)" %$" E2%B2" *2'" 5(%$B%5/6H/>'$*" ('6/*%,$)2%5"

?'*E''$"&,*'()"/$@"('5(')'$*/*%&')"%)"A)A/66+"*2,A>2*"*,"-/&,("*2'"5(%$B%5/6)F"I,(',&'(8"*2%)"

@'B,A56%$>" 2/)" ?''$" @,BA='$*'@" -,(" /" 5,6%B+" %))A'" *2/*" @,')" $,*" ('KA%('" )A?)*/$*%/6"

%$-,(=/*%,$",(")5'B%/6%0'@"J$,E6'@>'"*,"?'"'&/6A/*'@"?A*"(/*2'("&,*'()L"@'B%)%,$)"/('"?/)'@",$"

%@',6,>%B/6"B,$&%B*%,$)F"

12'"5/5'("5(,B''@)"/)"-,66,E)3"]'B*%,$"9"5(')'$*)"*2'"'=5%(%B/6")*(/*'>+f"%*"@')B(%?')"

*2'"@/*/"/$@"&/(%/?6')"/$@")5'B%-%')"*2'"'=5%(%B/6"=,@'6F"]'B*%,$"S"@%)BA))')"*2'"('>('))%,$"

(')A6*)F"]'B*%,$"T"B,$B6A@')F"

2. Empirical strategy 2.1 Data and variables

The referendum

D"A)'"@/*/",$"*2'"&,*%$>",A*B,='",-"*2'"('-'('$@A=",$"*2'"B,$)*(AB*%,$",-"*2'"B,$B'(*"

2/66"%$".,$)*/$0"_C'(=/$+`",$"I/(B2"9!8"9:!:F"12'"@/*/)'*"B,$*/%$)"gU",?)'(&/*%,$)"-,("/66"

'6'B*,(/6" @%)*(%B*)" _*2'" /55'$@%<" 5(,&%@')" /" 6%)*" ,-" *2'" gU" '6'B*,(/6" @%)*(%B*)" /$@" ?,(,A>2)`F"

h,*'()" 2/&'" ?''$" /)J'@" E2'*2'(" *2'+" />(''" ,$" ?A%6@%$>" /" B,$B'(*" 2/66" /*" *2'" /('/" i.6'%$H

(5)

" T

h'$'@%>d"E2%B2"%)"6,B/*'@"@%('B*6+"/*"*2'")2,('",-"\/J'".,$)*/$0F"12'"B,$)*(AB*%,$"&,6A='"

2/)"?''$"/55(,<%=/*'@"*,"?'"/?,A*"TP"=%66%,$"'A(,)Fg""

4")%>$%-%B/$*"=/G,(%*+"&,*'@"/>/%$)*"*2'"B,$)*(AB*%,$",-"*2'"B,$B'(*"2/663"9:FP::"&,*'()"

_gUFOj`" &,*'@" />/%$)*" /$@" !:FPOU" &,*'()" _STF9j`" &,*'@" -,(" *2'" B,$)*(AB*%,$" ,-" *2'" B,$B'(*"

2/66FO"12'"&,*%$>"*A($,A*"E/)"U9F9j8"),"*2/*"*2'"(')A6*",-"*2'"('-'('$@A="%)"'--'B*A/6"_KA,(A="

9Uj`F"12'"B,$B'(*"2/66"E%66"$,*"?'"?A%6*F"

12'" B6'/(HBA*" (')A6*" %)" )A(5(%)%$>" -,(" *E," ('/),$)3" _!`" *2'" =/+,(" %$%*%/*'@" *2'" 5(,G'B*"

/$@"_9`"&,*'()"%$".,$)*/$0"*(/@%*%,$/66+"')*''="BA6*A(/6"/B*%&%*%')F"4$"%=5,(*/$*"('/),$"-,("*2'"

5/*'$*"&,*'"/>/%$)*"*2'"B,$)*(AB*%,$",-"*2'"B,$B'(*"2/66"/55'/()"*,"?'"*2'"6,B/*%,$F"I/$+"&,*'()"

E,A6@"6%J'6+"2/&'"&,*'@"%$"-/&,(",-"/"B,$B'(*"2/66"%$".,$)*/$0"?A*"@%)/>(''@"E%*2"*2'"6,B/*%,$"

@%('B*6+"/*"*2'")2,('",-"*2'"\/J'".,$)*/$0F"

The political party landscape

1E,"=/G,("5,6%*%B/6"5/(*%')"2/&'"B2/(/B*'(%0'@"*2'"5,6%*%B/6")5'B*(A="%$"C'(=/$+3"*2'"

6'-*%)*" ],B%/6" N'=,B(/*%B" V/(*+" _]VN`" /$@" *2'" B,$)'(&/*%&'" Z2(%)*%/$" N'=,B(/*%B" #$%,$"

_ZN#`F"12'"=AB2")=/66'("X(''"N'=,B(/*%B"V/(*+"_XNV`"/$@"C(''$"5/(*+"_Ca`"2/&'"56/+'@"/$"

%=5,(*/$*"(,6'"/)"B,/6%*%,$"5/(*$'()"/*"*2'"-'@'(/6"/$@")*/*'"6'&'6F"12'"XNV"%)"/"6%?'(/6k=/(J'*H ,(%'$*'@" 5/(*+" /$@" *2'" C(''$)" 2/&'" *(/@%*%,$/66+" -,66,E'@" (/*2'(" 6'-*E%$>" 5,6%B%')F" D$"

.,$)*/$08" 2,E'&'(8" *2'" C(''$" 5/(*+" ('B'%&')" @%)5(,5,(*%,$/*'6+" 2%>2" )A55,(*F" X,(" '</=56'8"

.,$)*/$0"2/)"?''$"*2'"-%()*"B%*+"%$"C'(=/$+"E2,)'"=/+,("?'6,$>)"*,"*2'"C(''$"5/(*+F"4*"*2'"

6,B/6" 6'&'68" *2'" )," B/66'@" dX(''" &,*'()e" /6)," B/=5/%>$F" 12'" X(''" h,*'()" 2/&'" 5,6%*%B/6"

56/*-,(=)"%$"*2'"=%@@6'",-"*2'"5,6%*%B/6")5'B*(A=F"

""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""

g"X,("/"@%)BA))%,$",$"*2',('*%B/6"/(>A='$*)"-,("5A?6%B")A55,(*"*,"BA6*A(/6"/B*%&%*%')")''8"-,("'</=56'8"X('+"/$@"

V,=='('2$'"_!7P7`"/$@"X('+"_9:::`F"^$"5(%&/*'"@'=/$@"-,("5A?6%B")A?)%@%')"*,"*2'"/(*)")''8"'F>F8"V,=='('2$'"

/$@"]B2$'%@'("_!7PS`F"

O"12%)" %$B6A@')" gFO!T" 5,)*/6" &,*'()F" h,*%$>" ?'2/&%,(" ?'*E''$" 5,)*/6" /$@" ?/66,*" ?,<" &,*'()" E/)" &'(+" )%=%6/(3"

g9FOj",-"*2'"5,)*/6"&,*'()"/$@"ggFUj",-"*2'"?/66,*"?,<"&,*'()"&,*'@"/>/%$)*"*2'"5(,5,)/6F"

"

(6)

" U

12'" '6'B*,(/*'" -,(" ('-'('$@/" B,((')5,$@)" E%*2" *2'" '6'B*,(/*'" -,(" 6,B/6" '6'B*%,$)F" D$"

B,$*(/)*" *," C'(=/$" -'@'(/6" /$@" )*/*'" '6'B*%,$)8" 5'(=/$'$*" (')%@'$*)" /('" /6)," /66,E'@" *,"

5/(*%B%5/*'"%$"('-'('$@/"/$@"6,B/6"'6'B*%,$)F"D"*2'('-,('"A)'"*2'"&,*%$>"*A($,A*",-"*2'"6/)*"6,B/6"

'6'B*%,$)"2'6@",$"lA$'"O8"9::7"%$",(@'("*,"@')B(%?'"*2'"5,6%*%B/6"5('-'('$B')"%$"*2'"gU"'6'B*,(/6"

@%)*(%B*)F" 12'" &,*%$>" ,A*B,='" ,-" *2'" 6,B/6" '6'B*%,$)" 2'6@" ,$" lA$'" O8" 9::7" E/)" /)" -,66,E)"

_'<B6A@%$>" 5,)*/6" &,*')`3" ]VN" !PFSOj8" ZN#" 9!FUUj8" C(''$" 9SFUTj8" XNV" !:FS9j8" X(''"

h,*'()"!SFPSj8"\'-*%)*"V/(*+"_\%$J'"\%)*'".,$)*/$0`"TF7gj8",*2'()"OFTSjF"D"@,"$,*"%$B6A@'"

*2'" 5,)*/6" &,*'" '6'B*,(/6" @%)*(%B*)" ?'B/A)'" *2'+" /('" @%--'('$*" -,(" '&'(+" )%$>6'" '6'B*%,$" ,("

('-'('$@A=F"

Correlation between the voting outcome of the referendum and political ideology"

D$",(@'("*,"%66A)*(/*'"*2'"/)),B%/*%,$"?'*E''$"*2'"&,*%$>",A*B,='",-"*2'"('-'('$@A=",$"

*2'"B,$)*(AB*%,$",-"*2'"B,$B'(*"2/66"_m,n)")2/('`"/$@"5,6%*%B/6"%@',6,>+8"D"5(')'$*"B,(('6/*%,$)"

?'*E''$"*2'")2/('",-"&,*')"/>/%$)*"*2'"B,$)*(AB*%,$",-"*2'"B,$B'(*"2/66"/$@"*2'"&,*%$>",A*B,='"

,-"*2'"6/)*"6,B/6"'6'B*%,$)"-,("/66"gU"'6'B*,(/6"@%)*(%B*)F""

^$'"B/$")''"E%*2"*2'"$/J'@"'+'"*2/*"(')%)*/$B'"*,"*2'"B,$)*(AB*%,$",-"*2'"B,$B'(*"2/66"

E/)" 5(,$,A$B'@" %$" '6'B*,(/6" @%)*(%B*)" %$" E2%B2"B%*%0'$)" &,*'" -,(" *2'" ]VN" _X%>A('" !`" /$@" *2'"

6'-*%)*"d\%$J'"\%)*'e"_X%>A('"9`F";+"B,$*(/)*8"(')%)*/$B'"E/)"=AB2"6'))"5(,$,A$B'@"%$"'6'B*,(/6"

@%)*(%B*)"%$"E2%B2"B%*%0'$)"&,*'"-,("*2'"ZN#"_X%>A('"S`"/$@"%$"5/(*%BA6/("-,("*2'"XNV"_X%>A('"

T`F"X'E')*"(')%)*/$B')",BBA(('@"%$"@%)*(%B*)"%$"E2%B2"*2'"dX(''"h,*'()e"('B'%&'")*(,$>")A55,(*"

_X%>A('" U`F" 4@&,B/*')" ,-" *2'" C(''$)" E'('" @%&%@'@" ,$" *2'" B,$B'(*" 2/66" ('-'('$@A=F" 12'"

B,(('6/*%,$"?'*E''$"*2'")2/('",-"*2'"C(''$"V/(*+"/$@"m,n)",$"*2'"('-'('$@A="%)":F:O"_X%>A('"

g`F"^$"*2'",$'"2/$@8"*2'"C(''$)"?'6,$>"*,"*2'"B/=5",-"*2'"5,6%*%B/6"6'-*"*2/*")*(,$>6+",55,)'@"

*2'"B,$)*(AB*%,$",-"*2'"B,$B'(*"2/668",$"*2'",*2'("2/$@"*2'"=/+,("E2,"%$%*%/*'@"?A%6@%$>"*2'"

B,$B'(*"2/66"?'6,$>)"*,"*2'"C(''$"5/(*+F"

(7)

" g

2.2 The econometric model

12'"'B,$,='*(%B"=,@'6"2/)"*2'"-,66,E%$>"-,(=3"

"

a'-'('$@A="h,*'"]2/('"_m,`%"o"ȈJJ"pD@',6,>+L%J"W"Ȉ66"q%6"W"Ȗ"m'%>2?,(%"W"į"m,$Hm'%>2?,(%"

W"A%""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""

"

E%*2"%o"!8r8"gUf"J"o"!8r8g"f"6o!8"9"" " " " " " _9`"

"

E2'('"*2'"@'5'$@'$*"&/(%/?6'"a'-'('$@A="h,*'"]2/('"_m,`%"@'$,*')"*2'")2/('",-"&,*')"

/>/%$)*"*2'"B,$)*(AB*%,$",-"*2'"B,$B'(*"2/66"%$"'6'B*,(/6"@%)*(%B*"%F"ȈJJ"pD@',6,>+L%J*"@')B(%?')"

*2'"&,*%$>")2/('"-,("*2'")%$>6'"5,6%*%B/6"5/(*%')"@A(%$>"*2'"6/)*"6,B/6"'6'B*%,$"%$"'6'B*,(/6"@%)*(%B*"

%F"1,"/&,%@"=A6*%B,66%$'/(%*+"?'*E''$"*2'"5,6%*%B/6"5/(*+"&/(%/?6')8",$'",-"*2'"5,6%*%B/6"5/(*+"

&/(%/?6')" =A)*" -A$B*%,$" /)" *2'" ('-'('$B'" B/*'>,(+" _2'('" ]VN`F" 12'" ')*%=/*'@" '--'B*)" ,-" *2'"

,*2'(" *2'" 5,6%*%B/6" 5/(*+"&/(%/?6')" =A)*" *2'$" ?'" %$*'(5('*'@" /)" @'&%/*%,$)" -(,=" *2'" ('-'('$B'"

B/*'>,(+F"Ȉ66" q%6" B,$*/%$)" *E," '<,>'$,A)" B,$*(,6" &/(%/?6')F" D" %$B6A@'" *2'" ,&'(/66" &,*%$>"

*A($,A*" _%$" j" ,-" *2'" '6%>%?6'" &,*'()`" /$@" *2'" $A=?'(" ,-" '6%>%?6'" &,*'()" %$" '&'(+" '6'B*,(/6"

@%)*(%B*F"12'",&'(/66"&,*%$>"*A($,A*"B,$*(,6)"-,("5A?6%B"%$*'(')*"%$"*2'"('-'('$@A=F"12'"$A=?'("

,-"'6%>%?6'"&,*'()"%$"'&'(+"'6'B*,(/6"@%)*(%B*"B,$*(,6)"-,("*2'")%0'",-"*2'"'6'B*,(/6"@%)*(%B*F"12'"

'6'B*,(/6" @%)*(%B*)" /('" KA%*'" )=/66" _7SU" '6%>%?6'" &,*'()" ,$" /&'(/>'`F" X,("*2%)" ('/),$8" $," ,*2'("

'B,$,=%B" B,$*(,6" &/(%/?6')" )AB2" /)" %$B,='" 5'(" B/5%*/" ,(" '@AB/*%,$" 6'&'6)" /('" /&/%6/?6'F"

dm'%>2?,(%e"%)"/"@A==+"&/(%/?6'"*2/*"*/J')",$"*2'"&/6A'",$'"-,("*2'"'6'B*,(/6"@%)*(%B*)"*2/*"/('"

>',>(/52%B/66+"B6,)'"*,"*2'"6,B/*%,$"E2'('"*2'"B,$B'(*"2/66")2,A6@"2/&'"?''$"?A%6*"/$@"0'(,"

,*2'(E%)'FP" h,*'()" E2," 6%&'" B6,)'" *," *2'" )A>>')*'@" 6,B/*%,$" =/+" &,*'" />/%$)*" *2'" 5(,5,)/6"

?'B/A)'" B,$>')*%,$" =%>2*" %$B('/)'" *(/--%B" /)),B%/*'@" E%*2" *2'" B,$B'(*" 2/66F" V/(J%$>" %)" &'(+"

(')*(%B*%&'"%$".,$)*/$0n" B%*+"B'$*'(F"dm,$Hm'%>2?,(%e"%)"/"@A==+"&/(%/?6'"*2/*"*/J')",$"*2'"

""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""

P"D"/))%>$"*2'"'6'B*,(/6"@%)*(%B*)"%$"*2'"?,(,A>2)"d46*)*/@*e"/$@"dV/(/@%')e"/)"$'%>2?,()F"

(8)

" O

&/6A'" ,$'" -,(" *2'" '6'B*,(/6" @%)*(%B*)" *2/*" /('" >',>(/52%B/66+" -/(" -(,=" *2'" 6,B/*%,$" E2'('" *2'"

B,$B'(*"2/66")2,A6@"2/&'"?''$"?A%6*"/$@"0'(,",*2'(E%)'F7"\/)*6+8"A%"@')B(%?')"/$"'((,("*'(=F"""""""""""""""""

1/?6'" !" 5(')'$*)" @')B(%5*%&'" )*/*%)*%B)" ,-" /66" &/(%/?6')" %$B6A@'@F" D" ')*%=/*'" *2'" =,@'6"

E%*2",(@%$/(+"6'/)*")KA/(')"_^\]`"E%*2"(,?A)*")*/$@/(@"'((,()F"D*"%)"%=5,(*/$*"*,"$,*'"*2/*"*2'"

@'5'$@'$*"&/(%/?6'"$'%*2'("*/J')",$"*2'"&/6A'"0'(,"$,(",$'"%$"*2'"'$*%('")/=56'F"D"*2'('-,('"@,"

$,*"$''@"*,"')*%=/*'"/"B'$),('@"('>('))%,$"=,@'6"_'F>F8"1,?%*`F"12'")*/$@/(@"/))A=5*%,$)",-"

^\]"/('"-A6-%66'@F"

3. Regression Results

1/?6'"9"%66A)*(/*')"*2'"('>('))%,$"(')A6*)F"Z,6A=$"_!`")2,E)"*2'"(')A6*)"E2'$"$,"B,$*(,6"

&/(%/?6')" /('" %$B6A@'@F" D$" B,6A=$)" _9`" *," _T`" D" 2/&'" %$B6A@'@" *2'" B,$*(,6" &/(%/?6')"

)A?)'KA'$*6+F"12'"B,$*(,6"&/(%/?6')"@,"$,*"*A($",A*"*,"?'")*/*%)*%B/66+")%>$%-%B/$*8"%$B6A@%$>"*2'"

B,$*(,6"&/(%/?6')"@,')"$,*8"2,E'&'(8"B2/$>'"*2'"%$-'('$B')"('>/(@%$>"*2'"5,6%*%B/6"&/(%/?6')"/*"

/66F";+"B,$*(/)*8"*2'"5,6%*%B/6"5/(*+"&/(%/?6')"2/&'"/")%>$%-%B/$*"%$-6A'$B'",$"*2'"('-'('$@A=n)"

&,*%$>" ,A*B,='F" 12'" \%$J'" \%)*'" /$@" ZN#" &/(%/?6')" @," $,*" *A($" ,A*" *," ?'" )*/*%)*%B/66+"

)%>$%-%B/$*F"12'"XNV"&/(%/?6')"/('")*/*%)*%B/66+")%>$%-%B/$*"/*"*2'"!j"6'&'6"%$"B,6A=$)"_!`"*,"

_T`F"12'"$A='(%B/6"='/$%$>",-"*2'"B,'--%B%'$*)"%)"*2/*"/"B,((')5,$@%$>"%$B('/)'",-"*2'"&,*%$>"

)2/('"-,("*2'"XNV"?+",$'"5,%$*"E,A6@"@'B('/)'"*2'"m,n)")2/('"%$"*2'"('-'('$@A="?+"/?,A*"!FS"

5,%$*)F"12'"X(''"h,*'()"&/(%/?6')"/('"/6),")*/*%)*%B/66+")%>$%-%B/$*"/*"*2'"!j"6'&'68"*2'"C(''$"

&/(%/?6')"/*"*2'"Uj"6'&'6"%$"B,6A=$"_!`"/$@"/*"*2'"!:j"6'&'6"%$"B,6A=$)"_9`"*,"_T`8"*2'"&/(%/?6'"

^*2'(" /*" *2'" !:j" 6'&'6F" 12'" $A='(%B/6" ='/$%$>" ,-" *2'" B,'--%B%'$*)" %)" *2/*" /" B,((')5,$@%$>"

%$B('/)'",-"*2'"&,*%$>")2/('"-,("*2'"X(''"h,*'()"/$@"C(''$)"?+",$'"5,%$*"E,A6@"@'B('/)'"*2'"

m,n)")2/('"%$"*2'"('-'('$@A="?+"/?,A*"!F:O"/$@":FTO"5,%$*)F"12'"$A='(%B/6"='/$%$>",-"*2'"

B,'--%B%'$*)",-"*2'"&/(%/?6'"^*2'("%)"*2/*"/"B,((')5,$@%$>"%$B('/)'",-"*2'"&,*%$>")2/('"-,("*2'"

""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""

7"D"/))%>$"*2'"'6'B*,(/6"@%)*(%B*)"%$"*2'"?,(,A>2)"dR>>e8"d\%*0'6)*'**'$e8"dN%$>'6)@,(-e8"dN'**%$>'$e8"db/662/A)'$e"

/)"$,$H$'%>2?,()F"

(9)

" P

,*2'(" 5/(*%')" ?+" ,$'" 5,%$*" E,A6@" %$B('/)'" *2'" m,n)" )2/('" %$" *2'" ('-'('$@A=" ?+" /?,A*" :FgS"

5,%$*)F"Z,$)'KA'$*6+8"*2'"(')A6*)")2,E"*2/*"(')%)*/$B'"*,"*2'"B,$)*(AB*%,$",-"*2'"B,$B'(*"2/66"

E/)"6'))")'&'('"%$"'6'B*,(/6"@%)*(%B*)"E2'('"B%*%0'$)"&,*'"-,("*2'"XNV8"X(''"h,*'()8"/$@"C(''$)"

B,=5/('@"*,"'6'B*,(/6"@%)*(%B*)"E2'('"B%*%0'$)"&,*'"-,("*2'"]VNF""

"

Robustness Checks

D"B2'BJ'@"*2'"(,?A)*$'))",-"*2'"(')A6*)"%$")'&'(/6"E/+)F"a')A6*)"B,A6@"?'")'$)%*%&'"*,"

*2'" B2,)'$" ('-'('$B'" B/*'>,(+" ,-" *2'" 5,6%*%B/6" &/(%/?6')" ?'B/A)'" *2'" &,*%$>" )2/(')" ,-" *2'"

5,6%*%B/6" 5/(*%')" @%--'(F" 1/?6'" S" )2,E)" *2'" ('>('))%,$" (')A6*)" %$" E2%B2" D" 2/&'" B2/$>'@" *2'"

('-'('$B'" B/*'>,(+" ,-" *2'" 5,6%*%B/6" &/(%/?6')" -(,=" d]VNe" *," d,*2'(eF" 12'" (')A6*)" %$" 1/?6'" S"

)A>>')*" *2/*" *2'" (')A6*)" /('" $,*" )'$)%*%&'" *," *2'" ('-'('$B'" B/*'>,(+" /*" /66F" 12'" 5,6%*%B/6" 5/(*+"

&/(%/?6')"%$"B,6A=$)"_!`"*,"_T`"/('"/66")*/*%)*%B/66+")%>$%-%B/$*F"12'")%0'",-"*2'"B,'--%B%'$*)",-"

*2'" 5,6%*%B/6" 5/(*+" &/(%/?6')" %$@%B/*')" *2/*" &,*%$>" ,$" *2'" B,$B'(*" 2/66" 2/)" ?''$" %@',6,>+H

%$@AB'@F" X,(" '</=56'8" *2'" B,'--%B%'$*" ,-" *2'" ]VN" &/(%/?6'" %)" /?,A*" H:Fg" /$@" %$@%B/*')" *2/*"

B,=5/('@" *," *2'" ,*2'(" 5/(*%')" *2'" )2/('" ,-" m,n)" %$" *2'" ('-'('$@A=" @'B('/)'@" ?+" /?,A*" :Fg"

5,%$*)" E2'$" *2'" &,*%$>" )2/('" ,-" *2'" ]VN" %$B('/)'@" ?+" !" 5,%$*F" 12'" B,'--%B%'$*" ,-" *2'" XNV"

&/(%/?6'"%)8"2,E'&'(8"/?,A*"H!F7"/$@"%$@%B/*')"*2/*"B,=5/('@"*,"*2'",*2'("5/(*%')"*2'")2/('",-"

m,n)" %$" *2'" ('-'('$@A=" @'B('/)'@" ?+" /?,A*" !F7" 5,%$*)" E2'$" *2'" &,*%$>" )2/('" ,-" *2'" XNV"

%$B('/)'@"?+"!"5,%$*F"D*"%)"%=5,(*/$*"*,"$,*'"*2/*"*2'"B,'--%B%'$*)",-"*2'"\%$J'"\%)*'"&/(%/?6')"

/('"),='E2/*"?%>>'("*2/$"*2'"B,'--%B%'$*)",-"*2'"ZN#"&/(%/?6')"%$"/?),6A*'"*'(=)F"12'"('/),$"

%)"*2/*"*2'"&,*'")2/(')",-"*2'"ZN#"/('"=,('"*2/$"-,A("*%=')"/)"6/(>'"/)"*2'"&,*'")2/(')",-"*2'"

\%$J'" \%)*'" ,$" /&'(/>'F" C%&'$" *2'" @%)*(%?A*%,$" ,-" *2'" \%$J'" \%)*'" /$@" ZN#" &/(%/?6')" *2'"

(')A6*)" '<5('))" 2%>2'(" (')%)*/$B'" *," *2'" B,$)*(AB*%,$" ,-" *2'" B,$B'(*" 2/66" %$" @%)*(%B*)" %$" E2%B2"

B%*%0'$)" &,*'" -,(" *2'" \%$J'" \%)*'F" D" 2/&'" /6)," A)'@" /66" *2'" ,*2'(" 5/(*+" )2/('" &/(%/?6')" /)"

('-'('$B'"B/*'>,(+"/$@"%$-'('$B')"@,"$,*"B2/$>'F""

(10)

" 7

XA(*2'("B,$*(,6"&/(%/?6')"/('"6%J'6+"*,"%$-6A'$B'"5('-'('$B')",$"BA6*A(/6"5,6%B+F"D@'/66+"

E'"E,A6@"6%J'"*,"B,$*(,6"-,("&/(%/?6')")AB2"/)"%$B,='"5'("B/5%*/",("'@AB/*%,$F"X,("'</=56'8"

2%>2'("'@AB/*'@"B%*%0'$)"/('"=,('"6%J'6+"*,"6%)*'$"*,"B6/))%B"=A)%B"_'F>F8"V(%'*,Ha,@(s>A'0"/$@"

X'($t$@'0H;6/$B,"9:::`"/$@"/**'$@"B6/))%B"=A)%B"B,$B'(*)"_'F>F8"X/&/(,"/$@"X(/*')B2%"9::O`F"

a'6%>%,$"=/+"/6),"%$-6A'$B'"5('-'('$B')",$"BA6*A(/6"5,6%B+"_'F>F"./*0HC'((,"'*"/6F"9::7`F"12'"

('/),$"-,("*2'"6/BJ",-"B,$*(,6"&/(%/?6')"%)"*2'")=/66")%0'",-"*2'"'6'B*,(/6"@%)*(%B*)F"12'('"/('"$,"

@/*/",$"%$B,='"/$@"'@AB/*%,$"/&/%6/?6'"+'*F!:"D$",(@'("*,"/55(,<%=/*'"@%--'('$B')"%$"%$B,='"D"

%$B6A@'@"/"2%>2"%$B,='"?,(,A>2"@A==+"&/(%/?6'"E2%B2"*/J')",$"*2'"&/6A'",$'"-,("?,(,A>2)"

E%*2"=/$+",$'H-/=%6+"2,A)')"/$@"=/$)%,$)"/$@"0'(,",*2'(E%)'F!!"12'"2%>2"%$B,='"?,(,A>2"

@A==+" &/(%/?6'" @,')" $,*" *A($" ,A*" *," ?'" )*/*%)*%B/66+" )%>$%-%B/$*8" ?A*" %$B6A@%$>" %*" @,')" $,*"

B2/$>'"*2'"%$-'('$B')"('>/(@%$>"*2'"5,6%*%B/6"&/(%/?6')"/*"/66F"

N/*/",$"('6%>%,$"/('"/&/%6/?6'",$"?,(,A>2"6'&'6"-,("*2'"+'/("9::7F"X,A("B/*'>,(%')"B/$"

?'" @%)*%$>A%)2'@3" V(,*')*/$*)8" Z/*2,6%B)8" ^*2'(" a'6%>%,$" /$@" m," a'6%>%,$F" D" %$B6A@'" *2')'"

('6%>%,$"&/(%/?6')"/)"/")2/('",-"*,*/6"5,5A6/*%,$"%$"*2'"(')5'B*%&'"?,(,A>2F"m,"a'6%>%,$"%)"*2'"

('-'('$B'" B/*'>,(+F" 1/?6'" T" )2,E)" *2'" ('>('))%,$" (')A6*)" E2'$" *2'" ('6%>%,$" &/(%/?6')" /('"

%$B6A@'@F"Z,=5/('@"*,"@%)*(%B*)"E2'('"B%*%0'$)"/('"6'))"('6%>%,A)8"(')%)*/$B'"*,"*2'"B,$)*(AB*%,$"

,-"*2'"B,$B'(*"2/66"E/)")*(,$>"%$"'6'B*,(/6"@%)*(%B*)"E2'('"B%*%0'$)"/('"Z/*2,6%BF"12'"Z/*2,6%B"

('6%>%,$"&/(%/?6'"2/)"/"5,)%*%&'")%>$"/$@"%)")*/*%)*%B/66+")%>$%-%B/$*"/*"*2'"!:j"6'&'6"%$"B,6A=$"

_!`"/$@"/*"*2'"Uj"6'&'6"%$"B,6A=$"_9`F";+"B,$*(/)*8"B,=5/('@"*,"@%)*(%B*)"E2'('"B%*%0'$)"E'('"

6'))"('6%>%,A)8"V(,*')*/$*)"&,*'@"=,('"%$"-/&,(",-"*2'"5(,G'B*F"12'"V(,*')*/$*"('6%>%,$"&/(%/?6'"

2/)"/"$'>/*%&'")%>$"/$@"%)")*/*%)*%B/66+")%>$%-%B/$*"/*"*2'"!:j"6'&'6"%$"B,6A=$"_!`"/$@"/*"*2'"Uj"

6'&'6" %$" B,6A=$" _S`F" 12'" ^*2'(" a'6%>%,$" &/(%/?6'" @,')" $,*" *A($" ,A*" *," ?'" )*/*%)*%B/66+"

)%>$%-%B/$*F" ]'&'(/6" &/(%/?6')" @," $,*" *A($" ,A*" *," ?'" )*/*%)*%B/66+" )%>$%-%B/$*" %$" B,6A=$" _T`"

""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""

!:"12'"]*/*%)*%B/6"^--%B'".,$)*/$0"BA(('$*6+"B,66/?,(/*')"E%*2"*2'"C'(=/$"X'@'(/6"]*/*%)*%B/6"^--%B'"%$",(@'("*,"

B,=5%6'"')*%=/*')",$"*2'"%$B,='"@%)*(%?A*%,$"%$".,$)*/$0"_,$"?,(,A>2"6'&'6`F"12')'"@/*/"=/+"?'"/&/%6/?6'"%$"

9:!!F"

!!"D"/="%$@'?*'@"*,"R?'(2/(@";/%'("-(,="]*/*%)*%B/6"^--%B'".,$)*/$0"-,("B2,,)%$>"*2'"?,(,A>2)"dV'*'()2/A)'$H

^)*e8"d466=/$$)@,(-e8"d]*//@e8"dR>>e8"d\%*0'6)*'**'$e8"dN%$>'6)@,(-e"/$@""db/662/A)'$e"/)"2%>2"%$B,='"

?,(,A>2)F"

(11)

" !:

?'B/A)'",-"*2'"@'B('/)%$>"$A=?'(",-"-(''@,=)F"12'"-%$@%$>)",$"*2'"('6%>%,$"&/(%/?6')"=%>2*"

/55'/("B,A$*'(%$*A%*%&'"/*"/"-%()*">6/$B'F"D*"*A($)",A*8"2,E'&'(8"*2/*"V(,*')*/$*)"=,)*6+"6%&'"%$"

*2'"2%>2"%$B,='"?,(,A>2)F"12'"V(,*')*/$*"&/(%/?6'"%)")*(,$>6+"5,)%*%&'6+"B,(('6/*'@"E%*2"*2'"

2%>2"%$B,='"?,(,A>2"&/(%/?6'"_B,(('6/*%,$"B,'--%B%'$*":FOT`F"Q%>26+"KA/6%-%'@"%$@%&%@A/6)"E2,"

2/&'" =,&'@" *," .,$)*/$0" %$" ,(@'(" E,(J" %$" *2'" \/J'" .,$)*/$0" ,(" MA(%B2" /('/" /55'/(" *," ?'"

V(,*')*/$*)8" E2'('/)" *2'" 6,B/6" 5'**+" ?,A(>',%)%'" %)" 5('@,=%$/$*6+" Z/*2,6%BF" D$" /$+" '&'$*8"

%$B6A@%$>" *2'" ('6%>%,$" &/(%/?6')" @,')" $,*" B2/$>'" *2'" %$-'('$B')" ('>/(@%$>" *2'" 5,6%*%B/6"

&/(%/?6')F"

]B2,6/()"2/&'"*')*'@"-,("%@',6,>+H%$@AB'@"'--'B*)",$"C'(=/$"'B,$,=%B"5,6%B+H=/J%$>"

/6),"'=56,+%$>"6'-*H(%>2*"@A==+"&/(%/?6')"_'F>8"]'%*0"9:::8"]B2$'%@'("9:!:`F"12'"('/),$"%)"

*2/*"/66"-'@'(/6"B2/$B'66,()"/$@")*/*'"5(%='"=%$%)*'()"2/&'"?''$"='=?'()",-",$'",-"*2')'"*E,"

=/G,("?6,BJ)8"]VN"/$@"ZN#"_Z]#"%$";/&/(%/`F"C'(=/$"5/(*%')"B/$"?'">(,A5'@"%$"/"6'-*E%$>"

B/=5"_]VN8"C(''$8"\Dm.R`"/$@"/"(%>2*E%$>"B/=5"_ZN#kZ]#"/$@"XNV`F"D"2/&'"%$B6A@'@"/"

&/(%/?6'"d\'-*E%$>e"*2/*"%)"*2'")A=",-"&,*%$>")2/(')"-,("*2'"]VN8"C(''$)"/$@"6'-*%)*"d\%$J'"

\%)*'e"/$@"/"&/(%/?6'"da%>*2E%$>e"*2/*"%)"*2'")A=",-"&,*%$>")2/(')"-,("*2'"ZN#"/$@"XNVF"12'"

(')A6*)"%$@%B/*'"*2/*"@%--'('$B')"?'*E''$"*2'"*E,"B/=5)"E'('"(/*2'(")=/66F"12'"('/),$"%)"*2'"

$,$H5/(*%)/$"?'2/&%,("/$@"*2'"2%>2"&,*'")2/('",-"*2'"C(''$)F"

12'"('5,(*'@"'--'B*)"B,A6@"?'"@(%&'$",("=%*%>/*'@"?+"%@%,)+$B(/*%B"B%(BA=)*/$B')"%$"*2'"

%$@%&%@A/6"'6'B*,(/6"@%)*(%B*)F"X,("*2%)"('/),$8"D"*')*'@"E2'*2'("*2'"(')A6*)"/('")'$)%*%&'"*,"*2'"

%$B6A)%,$k'<B6A)%,$",-"5/(*%BA6/("'6'B*,(/6"@%)*(%B*)F"D$-'('$B')"@,"$,*"B2/$>'"E2'$"'<B6A@%$>"

/$"%$@%&%@A/6"'6'B*,(/6"@%)*(%B*F"

4" B/&'/*" /556+%$>" *," /66" 'B,$,='*(%B" =,@'6)" B,$B'($)" 5,*'$*%/6" '$@,>'$'%*+" ,-" *2'"

'<56/$/*,(+"&/(%/?6')F"D$"=+"/$/6+)%)8"2,E'&'(8"'$@,>'$'%*+"5(,?6'=)"B/$$,*",BBA("?'B/A)'"D"

('>('))"*2'"&,*%$>",A*B,='"-(,="I/(B2"9!8"9:!:",$"*2'"&,*%$>",A*B,='"-(,="lA$'"O8"9::7F"""

^$'"=/+"E'66"'=56,+"*2'"&,*%$>",A*B,='"-(,="*2'"5('&%,A)"6,B/6"'6'B*%,$)"_2'6@",$"

lA$'" !S8" 9::T`" %$)*'/@" ,-" *2'" &,*%$>" ,A*B,='" -(,=" 6,B/6" '6'B*%,$)" -(,=" lA$'" O8" 9::7" -,("

(12)

" !!

(,?A)*$'))" B2'BJ)F" 12'" '6'B*,(/6" @%)*(%B*)" 2/&'" ?''$8" 2,E'&'(8" ('H,(>/$%0'@" -(,=" 9::T" *,"

9::7"),"*2/*"D"B/$$,*"'=56,+"5('&%,A)"&,*%$>",A*B,=')F"

4. Conclusion

D@',6,>+" %$-6A'$B')" BA6*A(/6" 5,6%B+F" h,*'()" E'('" $,*" %$B6%$'@" *," &,*'" -,(" *2'"

B,$)*(AB*%,$",-"*2'"B,$B'(*"2/66"%$".,$)*/$0"_C'(=/$+`",$"I/(B2"9!8"9:!:F"a')%)*/$B'"*,"*2'"

B,$B'(*"2/66"E/)"5/(*%BA6/(6+")*(,$>"%$"'6'B*,(/6"@%)*(%B*)"E2'('"=/G,(%*%')",-"B%*%0'$)"&,*'"-,("

*2'"),B%/6"@'=,B(/*)F";+"B,$*(/)*8"B,$)*%*A'$*)",-"(%>2*E%$>"5/(*%')"&,*'@"=,('"%$"-/&,(",-"*2'"

5(,G'B*F" 12%)" &,*%$>" 5/**'($" %)" %$" 6%$'" E%*2" *2'" 5('-'('$B')" ,-" *2'" 5/(*%')L" B,$)*%*A'$B%')3"

/@&,B/*')" ,-" B,$)'(&/*%&'" /$@" 6%?'(/6" 5/(*%')" )A55,(*" *(/@%*%,$/6" BA6*A(/6" &/6A')" )AB2" /)"

*2'/*(')8"B,$B'(*)8",5'(/)"/$@"/(*"'<2%?%*%,$)"=,('"*2/$"/@&,B/*')",-"*2'"),B%/6"@'=,B(/*)"/$@"

),B%/6%)*)"E2,"@,"$,*"E/$*"*,"2/&'")5'$*"=,$'+",$"BA6*A('"?A*"-/&,("%$B,='"('@%)*(%?A*%,$F""

12'" %$$,&/*%,$" ,-" =+" 5/5'(" %)" *," %$&')*%>/*'" *2'" %$-6A'$B'" ,-" 5,6%*%B/6" %@',6,>+" ,$" BA6*A(/6"

5,6%B+"%$"/"('-'('$@A="-,("*2'"-%()*"*%='F"12'"@%('B*H@'=,B(/*%B"&,*'"/>/%$)*"*2'"B,$)*(AB*%,$"

,-" *2'" B,$B'(*" 2/66" %)" $,*" %$" 6%$'" E%*2" *2'" &,*%$>" ?'2/&%,(" ,-" *2'" ('5(')'$*/*%&')" %$" *2'" B%*+"

B,A$B%6F"12'"B%*+"B,A$B%6"%$".,$)*/$0"2/)"T:")'/*)3"!:"C(''$8"7"ZN#8"O"]VN8"g"X(''"h,*'()8"T"

XNV8"9"\%$J'"\%)*'"/$@"!")'/*"'/B2",-",*2'("5/(*%')F"D$"45(%6"9::78"/"=/G,(%*+"B,$)%)*%$>",-"*2'"

ZN#8"XNV8"X(''"h,*'()"/$@"U",-"*2'"C(''$"B,A$B%6"='=?'()"&,*'@"-,("*2'"B,$)*(AB*%,$",-"*2'"

B,$B'(*"2/66"_9T"+')8"!U"$,8"!"B,A$B%6"='=?'("@%@"$,*"/**'$@"*2'"=''*%$>`F"12'"]VN"&,*'@"/)"/"

?6,BJ"/>/%$)*"*2'"5(,5,)/6F"12%)"&,*%$>"?'2/&%,("%)"%$"6%$'"E%*2"*2'"56/*-,(=)",-"*2'"5,6%*%B/6"

5/(*%')" ,$" *2'" B,$)*(AB*%,$" ,-" *2'" B,$B'(*" 2/66" _]*/@*" .,$)*/$0" 9:!:/8" 9:!:?`F" D$" l/$A/(+"

9:!:8"*2'"B%*+"B,A$B%6"@'B%@'@"*,"%$%*%/*'"/"('-'('$@A=",$"*2'"B,$)*(AB*%,$",-"*2'"B,$B'(*"2/66"

-,(" *E," ('/),$)F" X%()*8" *2'" @'B%)%,$" 2/)" ?''$" ('>/(@'@" *," ?'" )," %=5,(*/$*" /$@" *2'" -%$/$B%/6"

&,6A='"*,"?'"),"2A>'"*2/*"*2'"&,*'()")2,A6@"2/&'"/")/+"%$"%*F"]'B,$@8"/"('-'('$@A="B,A6@"2/&'"

?''$" %$%*%/*'@" ?+" *2'" B%*%0'$)" /$+2,E" ?+" B,66'B*%$>" =,('" *2/$" UF:::" )%>$/*A(')F" 12'" B%*+"

B,A$B%6" E/$*'@" *," 5('&'$*" *2'" B%*%0'$)" -(,="B/66%$>" /" ('-'('$@A=" /$@" %$%*%/*'@" %*" %*)'6-F" 12'"

(13)

" !9

('-'('$@A="@%@"$,*"(')A6*"%$"/"=/G,(%*+"-,("*2'"5(,5,)/6"?'B/A)'"/6),"=/$+"B,$)'(&/*%&'"/$@"

6%?'(/6"&,*'()"@%@"$,*"/>(''"E%*2"*2'"6,B/*%,$",-"*2'"B,$B'(*"2/66F"I+"-%$@%$>)"*2A)")2,E"*2/*"

*2'" &,*%$>" ?'2/&%,(" ,-" 5,6%*%B/6" ('5(')'$*/*%&')" =/+" ?'" @'B,A56'@" -(,=" *2'" 5('-'('$B')" ,-"

*2'%("B,$)*%*A'$*)"'&'$"%$"B6,)'6+"J$%*"GA(%)@%B*%,$)"%$"E2%B2"*2'"5(%$B%5/6H/>'$*"('6/*%,$)2%5"

?'*E''$"&,*'()"/$@"('5(')'$*/*%&')"%)"A)A/66+"*2,A>2*"*,"-/&,("*2'"5(%$B%5/6)F"I,(',&'(8"*2%)"

@'B,A56%$>" 2/)" ?''$" @,BA='$*'@" -,(" /" 5,6%B+" %))A'" *2/*" @,')" $,*" ('KA%('" )A?)*/$*%/6"

%$-,(=/*%,$",(")5'B%/6%0'@"J$,E6'@>'"*,"?'"'&/6A/*'@"?A*"(/*2'("&,*'()L"@'B%)%,$)"/('"?/)'@",$"

%@',6,>%B/6"B,$&%B*%,$)F"

12'" 6/BJ" ,-" -A(*2'(" B,$*(,6" &/(%/?6')" %$" *2'" 'B,$,='*(%B" =,@'6" )AB2" /)" %$B,='" /$@"

'@AB/*%,$"$''@"*,"?'"/BJ$,E6'@>'@F"12'"('/),$"-,("*2'"6/BJ",-"B,$*(,6"&/(%/?6')"2/)"?''$"*2'"

)=/66" )%0'" ,-" *2'" '6'B*,(/6" @%)*(%B*)F" 12'" /)),B%/*%,$" ?'*E''$" 5,6%*%B/6" %@',6,>+" /$@" &,*%$>"

?'2/&%,(" ,$" *2'" B,$)*(AB*%,$" ,-" *2'" B,$B'(*" 2/66" 2/)" ?''$8" 2,E'&'(8" )," 5(,$,A$B'@" *2/*"

5,*'$*%/6",=%**'@"&/(%/?6'"?%/)"%)"&'(+"A$6%J'6+"*,"B2/$>'"*2'"%$-'('$B')F"D$"/$+"'&'$*8"*,">/%$"

@''5'(" %$)%>2*)" %$*," *2%)" =/**'(8" -A*A('" (')'/(B2" )2,A6@" =/J'" /" >('/*" /**'=5*" @%)'$*/$>6%$>"

%@',6,>+H%$@AB'@"=,*%&')"-(,="=,*%&')"*2/*"('6/*'"*,"%$B,='"/$@"'@AB/*%,$F"R=56,+%$>"@/*/"

-,("]E%*0'(6/$@"'='(>')"/)"/"E,(*2E2%6'"'$@'/&,("_)''8"'F>F8"X('+"/$@"V,=='('2$'"!77U"/$@"

V,=='('2$'"/$@"]B2$'%@'("!7PU`F"

(14)

" !S

References

;(,,J)8"4F"ZF"_9::!`F"b2,",55,)')">,&'($='$*"/(*)"-A$@%$>u""

Public Choice"!:P_SHT`8"SUUHSgOF"

X'6@8"\F"VF8"lF"4F"hF"X%)B2'("/$@"CF".%(B2>v))$'("_9:!!`F"12'"'--'B*",-"@%('B*"@'=,B(/B+",$"

"" %$B,='"('@%)*(%?A*%,$3"'&%@'$B'"-,("]E%*0'(6/$@F"Economic Inquiry, -,(*2B,=%$>F"

X'6@8"\F"VF"/$@"lF"CF"I/*)A)/J/"_9::S`F";A@>'*"('-'('$@A=)"/$@">,&'($='$*")5'$@%$>3"

'&%@'$B'"-(,="]E%))"B/$*,$)F"Journal of Public Economics"PO_!9`8"9O:SH9O9TF"

X'6@8"\F"VF"/$@"IF"aF"]/&%,0"_!77O`F"N%('B*"@'=,B(/B+"=/**'()"-,("'B,$,=%B"5'(-,(=/$B'3"

/$"'=5%(%B/6"%$&')*%>/*%,$F"Kyklos"U:_T`8"U:OHUSPF"

X'6@8"\F"VF8"ZF"]B2/6*'>>'("/$@"lF"]B2$'66'$?/B2"_9::P`F"^$">,&'($='$*"B'$*(/6%0/*%,$"/$@"

"" -%)B/6"('-'('$@A=)F"European Economic Review"U9_T`8"g!!HgTUF"

X'6@8"\F"VF8"ZF"]B2/6*'>>'("/$@"lF"]B2$'66'$?/B2"_9:!:`F"12'"%=5/B*",-"('-'('$@A=)",$"*2'"

B'$*(/6%0/*%,$",-"5A?6%B">,,@"5(,&%)%,$3"/"5,6%*%B/6"'B,$,=+"/55(,/B2F"

"Economics of Governance !!_!`8"SH9gF"

X(/&/(,8"N"/$@"ZF"X(/*')B2%"_9::O`F"4"@%)B('*'"B2,%B'"=,@'6",-"B,$)A=5*%,$",-"BA6*A(/6"

>,,@)3"*2'"B/)'",-"=A)%BF Journal of Cultural Economics S!_S`8"9:UH9STF"

X('+8";F"]F"_9:::`F"Arts and economics: analysis and cultural policyF"]5(%$>'(F";'(6%$F"

X('+8";F"]F"/$@"bF"bF"V,=='('2$'"_!7P7`F"Muses and markets – explorations in the economics of artsF";(/)%6";6/BJE'668"^<-,(@F"

X('+8";F"]F"/$@"bF"bF"V,=='('2$'"_!77U`F"VA?6%B"'<5'$@%*A(')",$"*2'"/(*)"/$@"@%('B*"

@'=,B(/B+"%$"]E%*0'(6/$@3"*2'"A)'",-"('-'('$@/F European Journal of Cultural Policy 9_!`8"UUHgUF"

C'*0$'(8"IF"_9::9`8"pN'*'(=%$/$*)",-"BA6*A(/6"5A?6%B"'<5'$@%*A(')3"/$"'<56,(/*,(+"*%='")'(%')"

"" /$/6+)%)"-,("4A)*(%/F"Journal of Cultural Economics 9g_T`8"9POHS:gF"

./*0HC'((,8"1F8"]F"a/0"/$@"IF"c/%)2"_9::7`F"Q,E"@,"B6/))8")*/*A)8"'*2$%B%*+8"/$@"('6%>%,)%*+"

)2/5'"BA6*A(/6",=$%&,(,A)$'))"%$"D)(/'6u"Journal of Cultural Economics SS_!`8"!H!OF"

./+8"bF"NF"_!7PS`F"1,E/(@"/"*2',(+",-"BA6*A(/6"5,6%B+"%$"$,$H=/(J'*8"%@',6,>%B/6"),B%'*%')F"

Journal of Cultural Economics O_9`8"!H9TF"

.('?)8"]F"/$@"bF"bF"V,=='('2$'"_!77U`F"V,6%*%B,H'B,$,=%B"%$*'(/B*%,$)",-"C'(=/$"5A?6%B"

5'(-,(=%$>"/(*)"%$)*%*A*%,$)F"Journal of Cultural Economics !7_!`8"!OHS9F"

I'(0+$8"bF"/$@"QF"bF"#()5(A$>"_9::U`F"h,*'(")A55,(*"-,("5(%&/*%0%$>"'@AB/*%,$3"'&%@'$B'"

)'6-H%$*'(')*"/$@"%@',6,>+F"European Journal of Political Economy"9U8"SSHUPF"

"

"

(15)

" !T

^?'($@,(-'(8"#F"/$@"hF"]*'%$'("_9::O`F"C'$'(/*%,$'$H",@'("V/(*'%'$J,$-6%J*u"R%$'"

'=5%(%)B2'"4$/6+)'"@'("@'A*)B2'$"Q,B2)B2A6/A)>/?'$F""

Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik"P_9`8"!gUH!PSF"

V,=='('2$'"bF"bF"/$@"XF"]B2$'%@'("_!7PS`F"V(%&/*'"@'=/$@"-,("5A?6%B")A?)%@%')"*,"*2'"/(*)3"

/")*A@+"%$"&,*%$>"/$@"'<5'$@%*A('"*2',(+F"D$3"lF"\F"]2/$/2/$8"bF"]F"Q'$@,$8"DF"12F"QF""

Q%62,()*"/$@"lF"&F"]*(//6'$"_'@)F`8"Economic support for the artsF""

4J(,$"#$%&'()%*+"V('))8"4J(,$"_^2%,`8"USHgUF

V,=='('2$'"bF"bF"/$@"XF"]B2$'%@'("_!7PU`F"4"('-'('$@A=",$"/"5A?6%B"=A)'A=L)"5A(B2/)'"

,-"V%B/)),"5/%$*%$>)F"D$3"hF"\F"^E'$"A$@"bF"]F"Q'$@,$"_'@)F`8"Managerial Economics for the artsF"4)),B%/*%,$"-,("ZA6*A(/6"RB,$,=%B)8"4J(,$"_^2%,`8"!!OH!9PF"

V,*(/-J'8"mF"_9:!!`F"VA?6%B"'<5'$@%*A(')",$"'@AB/*%,$"/$@"BA6*A(/6"/--/%()"%$"*2'"b')*"

C'(=/$")*/*')3"@,')">,&'($='$*"%@',6,>+"%$-6A'$B'"*2'"?A@>'*"B,=5,)%*%,$u""

German Economic Review8"-,(*2B,=%$>.

V(%'*,Ha,@(s>A'08"lF"/$@"hF"X'($t$@'0H;6/$B,""_9:::`F"4('"5,5A6/("/$@"B6/))%B/6"=A)%B"

6%)*'$'()"*2'")/='"5',56'u"Journal of Cultural Economics 9T_9`8"!TgH!gTF"

]B2$'%@'(8"ZF"lF"_9:!:`F"X%>2*%$>"E%*2",$'"2/$@"*%'@"?'2%$@"*2'"?/BJ3"5,6%*%B/6"?A@>'*"B+B6')"

"%$"*2'"C'(=/$")*/*')F"Public Choice"!T9_!`8"!9UH!U:F"

]B2A60'8"CF"CF"_9::P`F"1'(*%/(+"'@AB/*%,$"%$"/"-'@'(/6")+)*'=3"*2'"B/)'",-"C'(=/$+F""

D$3"IF"46?'(*8"NF"]B2=%@*B2'$"/$@"]F"h,%>*"_'@)F`8"Scientific CompetitionF"I,2("

]%'?'BJ8"1w?%$>'$8"SUHggF"

]B2A60'8"CF"CF"/$@"4F"a,)'"_!77P`F"VA?6%B",(B2')*(/"-A$@%$>"%$"C'(=/$+"x""

/$"'=5%(%B/6"%$&')*%>/*%,$F"Journal of Cultural Economics"99_T`8"99OH9TOF"

]B2A60'8"CF"CF8"/$@"QF"bF"#()5(A$>"_9:::`F"\/"@,$$/"'"=,?%6'"x",("%)")2'u"h,*'("

5('-'('$B')"/$@"5A?6%B")A55,(*"-,("*2'"5'(-,(=%$>"/(*)F""

Public Choice"!:9_!H9`8"!S!H!T7F"

]'%*08"QF"_9:::`F"X%)B/6"5,6%B+8"@'-%B%*)"/$@"5,6%*%B)",-")A?$/*%,$/6">,&'($='$*)3"*2'"B/)'",-"

12'"C'(=/$"\/'$@'(F"Public Choice"!:9_SHT`8"!PSH9!PF"

]*/@*".,$)*/$0"_9:!:/`F";w(>'(%$-,(=/*%,$"x".,$0'(*"A$@".,$>('))2/A)".,$)*/$0F"

V('))'?w(,".,$)*/$0F"b'(J0E'%"V(%$*WI'@%'$".,$)*/$0"C=?QF"

]*/@*".,$)*/$0"_9:!:?`F";w(>'('$*)B2'%@"%="Iv(0"9:!:"x".,$0'(*H"A$@".,$>('))2/A)"/A-"

.6'%$Hh'$'@%>F"

2**53kkEEEFJ,$)*/$0F@'k(/*2/A)k::OT7k:9UP:k:9g!Sk%$@'<F2*=6y)5(A$>=/(J':z97"

"

"

(16)

" !U

b'(BJ8".F8";F"Q'+$@'6)"/$@";F"C'+)"_9::P`F"12'"%=5/B*",-"pB'$*(/6"56/B')L",$")5/*%/6"

)5'$@%$>"5/**'($)3"'&%@'$B'"-(,="X6'=%)2"6,B/6">,&'($='$*"BA6*A(/6"'<5'$@%*A(')F"

Journal of Cultural Economics"S9_!`8"SUHUPF"

"

"

(17)

" !g

Appendix: Electoral districts and boroughs (Source: Electoral Office Konstanz):

Altstadt:"a/*2/A)8"Z/(%*/)".%$@'(*/>'))*v**'"4(B2'"_D`8"Z/(%*/)".%$@'(*/>'))*v**'"4(B2'"_DD`8"

.%$@'(2/A)"V/(/@%')8"]'$%,('$0'$*(A=8"b/66>A*)B2A6'"_D`8"b/66>A*)B2A6'"_DD`8"],0%/6>'(%B2*"

_D`8";w(>'()//6"_h,((/A=`8"],0%/6>'(%B2*"_DD`"

"

Paradies:"]B2v$06')5,(*2/66'"_D`8"]B2v$06')5,(*2/66'"_DD`8"V/6='$2/A)8"b/66>A*)B2A6'"_DDD`"

"

Petershausen-West:"1('--5A$J*"V'*'()2/A)'$"_D`8"1('--5A$J*"V'*'()2/A)'$"_DD`8"1('--5A$J*"

V'*'()2/A)'$"_DDD`8".%$@'(>/(*'$"N,(,*2'/H&,$H@'(HX6w'"_D`8".%$@'(>/(*'$"N,(,*2'/H&,$H@'(H X6w'"_DD`8"M'55'6%$HC'E'(?')B2A6'8".%$@'(2/A)"\{E'$0/2$8".%$@'(JA6*A(0'$*(A=".D.#M8"

M'55'6%$HC'E'(?')B2A6'8"12',@,(HQ'A))Ha'/6)B2A6'"_m'A?/A`"

"

Petershausen-Ost:"C(A$@)B2A6'"],$$'$2/6@'8".%$@'(2/A)"a/55'6J%)*'8"Q'%$(%B2H]A),H C+=$/)%A="_D`8"Q'%$(%B2H]A),HC+=$/)%A="_DD`8"V/(J*)*%-*"a,)'$/A"

"

Königsbau:"V'*(A)H.%$@'(>/(*'$8"#$%H\/?,(>'?vA@'"h8"Z/(%*/)HM'$*(A=".,$(/@%2/A)"_D`8"

Z/(%*/)HM'$*(A=".,$(/@%2/A)"_DD`8""

"

Allmannsdorf:"Z/(%*/)"|A/(*%'()=/$/>'='$*8"C(A$@)B2A6'"466=/$$)@,(-"_D`8"C(A$@)B2A6'"

466=/$$)@,(-"_DD`8"C(A$@)B2A6'"466=/$$)@,(-"_DDD`"

"

Staad:"4aCR"]5,(*?,,*2/-'$8".('A0H.%$@'(>/(*'$"

"

Fürstenberg:"1('--5A$J*"Z2}(%)+"_D`8"1('--5A$J*"Z2}(%)+"_DD`8"C(A$@H"A$@"Q/A5)B2A6'"

;'(B2'$"_D`8"C(A$@H"A$@"Q/A5)B2A6'";'(B2'$"_DD`8"C(A$@H"A$@"Q/A5)B2A6'";'(B2'$"_DDD`8"

C(A$@)B2A6'"b,66=/*%$>'$8"C(A$@)B2A6'"Q/%@'6=,,)"_D`8"C')B2E%)*'(H]B2,66H]B2A6'8"

C(A$@)B2A6'"Q/%@'6=,,)"_DD`"

"

Wollmatingen:"a'>'$?,>'$)B2A6'"_D`8"a'>'$?,>'$)B2A6'"_DD`8".%$@'(>/(*'$"]*F"I/(*%$8"

C'='%$@'0'$*(A="]*F"I/(*%$"_D`8"C'='%$@'0'$*(A="]*F"I/(*%$"_DD`"

"

Industriegebiet:"]*/@*E'(J'Hh'(E/6*A$>)>'?vA@'"

"

Egg:"h'(={>'$"A$@";/A";/FHbwFH4=*".m"

"

Litzelstetten:"]B2A6'"\%*0'6)*'**'$8"V-/((>'='%$@'0'$*(A="V'*'("A$@"V/A6"_D`8"

V-/((>'='%$@'0'$*(A="V'*'("A$@"V/A6"_DD`8"^(*)&'(E/6*A$>"\%*0'6)*'**'$"

"

Dingelsdorf:".%$@'(>/(*'$"]*F"m%J,6/A)"_D`8".%$@'(>/(*'$"]*F"m%J,6/A)"_DD`"

"

Dettingen:"C(A$@H"A$@"Q/A5*)B2A6'"N'**%$>'$"_D`8"C(A$@H"A$@"Q/A5*)B2A6'"N'**%$>'$"_DD`8"

C(A$@H"A$@"Q/A5*)B2A6'"N'**%$>'$"_DDD`"

"

Wallhausen:".%$@'(>/(*'$"b/662/A)'$"

"

"

"

"

(18)

" !O

X%>A('"!3"Z,(('6/*%,$"?'*E''$"*2'")2/('",-"dm,n)e"/$@"*2'")2/('",-"],B%/6"N'=,B(/*)F""

4050607080NO (share)

10 15 20 25 30

Social Democrats (Share)

"

Z,(('6/*%,$3":FU!F"],A(B'3"R6'B*,(/6"^--%B'".,$)*/$08",E$"B/6BA6/*%,$)"

"

"

X%>A('"93"Z,(('6/*%,$"?'*E''$"*2'")2/('",-"dm,n)e"/$@"*2'")2/('",-"d\%$J'"\%)*'e"_6'-*`F""

4050607080NO (share)

2 4 6 8 10 12

Linke Liste (Share)

"

Z,(('6/*%,$3":FTTF"],A(B'3"R6'B*,(/6"^--%B'".,$)*/$08",E$"B/6BA6/*%,$)"

(19)

" !P

X%>A('"S3"Z,(('6/*%,$"?'*E''$"*2'")2/('",-"dm,n)e"/$@"*2'")2/('",-"Z2(%)*%/$"N'=,B(/*)F""

4050607080NO (share)

10 15 20 25 30 35

Christian Democrats (Share)

"

Z,(('6/*%,$3"H:F!gF"],A(B'3"R6'B*,(/6"^--%B'".,$)*/$08",E$"B/6BA6/*%,$)"

"

X%>A('"T3"Z,(('6/*%,$"?'*E''$"*2'")2/('",-"dm,n)e"/$@"*2'")2/('",-"X(''"N'=,B(/*)F""

4050607080NO (share)

6 8 10 12 14 16

Free Democrats (Share)

"

Z,(('6/*%,$3"H:FUgF"],A(B'3"R6'B*,(/6"^--%B'".,$)*/$08",E$"B/6BA6/*%,$)"

"

"

"

"

(20)

" !7

"

X%>A('"U3"Z,(('6/*%,$"?'*E''$"*2'")2/('",-"dm,n)e"/$@"*2'")2/('",-"X(''"h,*'()F""

4050607080NO (share)

5 10 15 20 25

Free Voters (Share)

"

Z,(('6/*%,$3"H:FU7F"],A(B'3"R6'B*,(/6"^--%B'".,$)*/$08",E$"B/6BA6/*%,$)"

"

"

"

X%>A('"g3"Z,(('6/*%,$"?'*E''$"*2'")2/('",-"dm,n)e"/$@"*2'")2/('",-"C(''$)F""

4050607080NO (share)

10 20 30 40

Greens (Share)

"

Z,(('6/*%,$3":F:OF"],A(B'3"R6'B*,(/6"^--%B'".,$)*/$08",E$"B/6BA6/*%,$)"

"

(21)

" 9:

1/?6'"!3"N')B(%5*%&'"]*/*%)*%B)F"

h/(%/?6'" ^?)F" I'/$" ]*@F"N'&F" I%$" I/<" ],A(B'"

m,n)"_)2/('`" gU" gOF:!" gFgT" TgFgS" OPFPO" R6'B*,(/6"^--%B'".,$)*/$0"

]VN" gU" !PFSO" SFg:" !:FUg" 9gFST" R6'B*,(/6"^--%B'".,$)*/$0"

C(''$" gU" 9SFUT" gF!:" PFg9" SPF:U" R6'B*,(/6"^--%B'".,$)*/$0"

\%$J'"\%)*'"_6'-*`" gU" TF7g" 9FS:" !FUS" !!FP9" R6'B*,(/6"^--%B'".,$)*/$0"

ZN#" gU" 9!FUU" gF::" !:FO:" SgFST" R6'B*,(/6"^--%B'".,$)*/$0"

X(''"N'=,B(/*)" gU" !:FS9" 9F9O" gFS!" !gFT9" R6'B*,(/6"^--%B'".,$)*/$0"

X(''"h,*'()" gU" !SFPS" SFST" OFUS" 9!FPg" R6'B*,(/6"^--%B'".,$)*/$0"

^*2'(" gU" OFTS" 9FSP" SFS7" !TF7T" R6'B*,(/6"^--%B'".,$)*/$0"

1A($,A*"_)2/('`" gU" TOF!7" 7F7:" 9OFg:" gSFS:" R6'B*,(/6"^--%B'".,$)*/$0"

R6%>%?6'"h,*'()"" gU" 7STFO9" !OUFgU" TOSF::" !SUSF::" R6'B*,(/6"^--%B'".,$)*/$0"

m'%>2?,("@%)*(%B*"

gU" :F99" :FT!" :" !"

R6'B*,(/6"^--%B'".,$)*/$0"

_,E$"B/6BA6/*%,$`"

m,$H$'%>2?,("@%)*(%B*"

gU" :F!O" :FSP" :" !"

R6'B*,(/6"^--%B'".,$)*/$0"

_,E$"B/6BA6/*%,$`"

V(,*')*/$*"_)2/('`"

gU" 9TFS!" !FOT" 9:F7U" 9OFg9" ]*/*%)*%B/6"^--%B'".,$)*/$0"

_,E$"B/6BA6/*%,$`"

Z/*2,6%B"_)2/('`"

gU" T:F!O" 9F77" STF9:" T7F9P" ]*/*%)*%B/6"^--%B'".,$)*/$0"

_,E$"B/6BA6/*%,$`"

^*2'("a'6%>%,$"_)2/('`"

gU" !F:!" :FTg" :F97" SFOg" ]*/*%)*%B/6"^--%B'".,$)*/$0"

_,E$"B/6BA6/*%,$`"

m,"a'6%>%,$"_)2/('`"

gU" STFT9" SFSO" 9gFUS" TSFg:" ]*/*%)*%B/6"^--%B'".,$)*/$0"

_,E$"B/6BA6/*%,$`"

Q%>2HD$B,='"@A==+" gU" :FS!" :FTO" :" !" ,E$"B/6BA6/*%,$"

"

"

1/?6'"93"a'>('))%,$"a')A6*)F"^(@%$/(+"\'/)*"]KA/(')"_^\]`"E%*2"(,?A)*")*/$@/(@"'((,()F"

N'5'$@'$*"&/(%/?6'3")2/('",$"m,n)",$"B,$B'(*"2/66"('-'('$@A=F"

" _!`" _9`" _S`" _T`"

\%$J'"\%)*'" H:FTUOT" H:FTg:9" H:FSPS9" H:FTSU!"

" ~!F!g" ~!F!T" ~:F7U" ~!F:T"

ZN#" H:F9TU!" H:F!79P" H:F9U!9" H:F9!9O"

" ~:FOP" ~:FUP" ~:FO7" ~:FgT"

XNV" H!FSST7ÄÄÄ" H!F9PUSÄÄÄ" H!F99S!ÄÄÄ" H!F9:7:ÄÄÄ"

" ~SF:9" ~9F7S" ~9FPU" ~9FP9"

X(''"h,*'()" H!F:O::ÄÄÄ" H!F:S79ÄÄÄ" H!F!SSUÄÄÄ" H!F:U:gÄÄÄ"

" ~UFg9" ~TFgS" ~gFSS" ~TFg!"

C(''$" H:FU!gPÄÄ" H:FTgOPÄ" H:FTO!gÄ" H:FTSS7Ä"

" ~9F!g" ~!FP9" ~!F7!" ~!FgP"

^*2'(" :Fg:S9Ä" :FU7gSÄ" :FgO:PÄ" :Fg7T:Ä"

" ~!FP:" ~!FOg" ~!FPg" ~!FPO"

h,*%$>"1A($,A*" " H:F:Sg!" " H:F:UgS"

" " ~:FTP" " ~:FgT"

R6%>%?6'"h,*'()" " H:F::9!" " H:F:::9"

" " ~:FgU" " ~:F:O"

m'%>2?,(" " " H:F:S!S" :F!7UO"

" " " ~:F:9" ~:F!9"

m,$Hm'%>2?,(" " " 9F!SUU" 9FS9SU"

" " " ~!F9T" ~!F9O"

Z,$)*/$*" !!:FP:PPÄÄÄ" !!!F979PÄÄÄ" !:PFSOgUÄÄÄ" !:PF9TO9ÄÄÄ"

" ~UF77" ~UFPS" ~UFOT" ~UFUO"

^?)'(&/*%,$)" gU" gU" gU" gU"

aH)KA/('@"" :FU7" :Fg:" :Fg:" :Fg!"

4?),6A*'"&/6A'",-"*")*/*%)*%B)"%$"?(/BJ'*)f"Ä")%>$%-%B/$*"/*"!:jf"ÄÄ")%>$%-%B/$*"/*"Ujf"ÄÄÄ")%>$%-%B/$*"/*"!j"

(22)

" 9!

1/?6'"S3"a'>('))%,$"a')A6*)F"^(@%$/(+"\'/)*"]KA/(')"_^\]`"E%*2"(,?A)*")*/$@/(@"'((,()F"

N'5'$@'$*"&/(%/?6'3")2/('",$"m,n)",$"B,$B'(*"2/66"('-'('$@A=F"

" _!`" _9`" _S`" _T`"

]VN" H:Fg:S9Ä" H:FU7gSÄ" H:FgO:PÄ" H:Fg7T:Ä"

" ~!FP:" ~!FOg" ~!FPg" ~!FPO"

\%$J'"\%)*'" H!F:g:OÄÄ" H!F:UgUÄÄ" H!F:UT:ÄÄ" H!F!97!ÄÄ"

" ~9Fg!" ~9FTP" ~9FUT" ~9FU7"

ZN#" H:FPTPSÄÄÄ" H:FOP7!ÄÄÄ" H:F799:ÄÄÄ" H:F7:gOÄÄÄ"

" ~9F7:" ~9FgO" ~9F7U" ~9FOS"

XNV" H!F7SP!ÄÄÄ" H!FPP!gÄÄÄ" H!FP7S7ÄÄÄ" H!F7:S:ÄÄÄ"

" ~TFSg" ~TF9U" ~TFS!" ~TF!U"

X(''"h,*'()" H!FgOS9ÄÄÄ" H!FgSUUÄÄÄ" H!FP:TSÄÄÄ" H!FOTTOÄÄÄ"

" ~TFU7" ~TFS7" ~TFO9" ~TF9g"

C(''$" H!F!9::ÄÄÄ" H!F:gT!ÄÄÄ" H!F!T9TÄÄÄ" H!F!9P:ÄÄÄ"

" ~SFPU" ~SFgS" ~SFP:" ~SFU7"

h,*%$>"1A($,A*" " H:F:Sg!" " H:F:UgS"

" " ~:FTP" " ~:FgT"

R6%>%?6'"h,*'()" " H:F::9!" " H:F:::9"

" " ~:FgU" " ~:F:O"

m'%>2?,(" " " H:F:S!S" :F!7UO"

" " " ~:F:9" ~:F!9"

m,$Hm'%>2?,(" " " 9F!SUU" 9FS9SU"

" " " ~!F9T" ~!F9O"

Z,$)*/$*" !O!F!S:PÄÄÄ" !O:F7!O7ÄÄÄ" !OUFTUOUÄÄÄ" !OOFgU!PÄÄÄ"

" ~gFO:" ~gF7:" ~gFTU" ~gFUS"

^?)'(&/*%,$)" gU" gU" gU" gU"

aH)KA/('@"" :FU7" :Fg:" :Fg:" :Fg!"

4?),6A*'"&/6A'",-"*")*/*%)*%B)"%$"?(/BJ'*)f"Ä")%>$%-%B/$*"/*"!:jf"ÄÄ")%>$%-%B/$*"/*"Ujf"ÄÄÄ")%>$%-%B/$*"/*"!j"

"

"

"

"

"

"

"

"

"

"

"

"

"

"

"

"

"

"

"

"

"

"

"

"

"

(23)

" 99

1/?6'"T3"a'>('))%,$"a')A6*)F"^(@%$/(+"\'/)*"]KA/(')"_^\]`"E%*2"(,?A)*")*/$@/(@"'((,()F"

N'5'$@'$*"&/(%/?6'3")2/('",$"m,n)",$"B,$B'(*"2/66"('-'('$@A=F"

a'6%>%,$"&/(%/?6')"%$B6A@'@F"

" _!`" _9`" _S`" _T`"

\%$J'"\%)*'" H:FTUTg" H:FTOP!" H:FS:OS" H:FSTOS"

" ~!F97" ~!F97" ~:FPO" ~:F79"

ZN#" H:FTT!7" H:FSgU!" H:FT9OO" H:FT:TT"

" ~!FT!" ~!F!U" ~!FT9" ~!F9g"

XNV" H:F7T7gÄÄ" H:FP!UgÄÄ" H:FgUTP" H:Fg!S9"

" ~9FT:" ~9F:7" ~!FgS" ~!FUP"

X(''"h,*'()" H:F7Og:ÄÄÄ" H:FPO:TÄÄÄ" H:F7S!SÄÄÄ" H:FPT7TÄÄÄ"

" ~TFOU" ~TFU9" ~TFUT" ~TF9O"

C(''$" H:FUgTPÄÄ" H:FTg:gÄ" H:FT:PPÄÄ" H:FSggSÄ"

" ~9FUg" ~!F7!" ~9F:7" ~!FO:"

^*2'(" :FT7ST" :FUg7P" :FgS!7ÄÄ" :FO:7SÄÄ"

" ~!FUT" ~!FgU" ~9F!U" ~9F9!"

V(,*')*/$*" H:FPggPÄ" H:FO7PT" H!F9SSTÄÄ" H!F!U7P"

" ~!FPS" ~!FUS" ~9F!S" ~!Fg9"

Z/*2,6%B" :FT7SOÄ" :FgT97ÄÄ" :FU:97" :Fg:S9"

" ~!FP!" ~9F:7" ~!Fg!" ~!FUT"

^*2'("a'6%>%,$" :FTgU7" :Fg7Sg" :Fg:7" :FOS7O"

" ~:FTP" ~:FO7" ~:FgT" ~:FPg"

h,*%$>"1A($,A*" " H:F:77T" " H:F:g!9"

" " ~:F7P" " ~:FTP"

R6%>%?6'"h,*'()" " H:F::99" " :F:::U"

" " ~:FO!" " ~:F!T"

m'%>2?,(" " " H9FgS!!" H9FU9TO"

" " " ~!Fgg" ~!FT!"

m,$Hm'%>2?,(" " " 9F9:Ug" 9F9T!S"

" " " ~!F:7" ~:FPT"

Z,$)*/$*" !!9FTOgPÄÄÄ" !:SF7!gOÄÄÄ" !!!Fgg7OÄÄÄ" !:TFgSOOÄÄÄ"

" ~UF9O" ~SF7O" ~TFOP" ~SFU!"

^?)'(&/*%,$)" gU" gU" gU" gU"

aH)KA/('@"" :FgU" :FgU" :FgO" :FgO"

4?),6A*'"&/6A'",-"*")*/*%)*%B)"%$"?(/BJ'*)f"Ä")%>$%-%B/$*"/*"!:jf"ÄÄ")%>$%-%B/$*"/*"Ujf"ÄÄÄ")%>$%-%B/$*"/*"!j"

"

(24)

Learning and Peer Effects

Gerald Eisenkopf

Research Paper Series

Thurgau Institute of Economics

No. 21 september 2007

Referenzen

ÄHNLICHE DOKUMENTE

The success of any election campaign does not just rely solely on factual information to convince voters. Persuasion directed toward the imagination of individuals should be

Looking at environmental problems not only as unintended, but also aggregated results of individual behaviour we have, choosing an analytical perspective to illustrate basic

1 Departmental coordinator or liaison at international relations office or equivalent body within the institution. 2 Lecture, seminar, block seminar, exercise or

Based on the National Forest Inventory (NFI) data from 13 European countries, we quantify and compare the areas and aboveground dry biomass (AGB) of FAWS and forest not available

A good death should be a part of having a good life (the last stage of life in a good manner). Thus, the notion of a good death should be an important question for people to

In contrast, former socialist countries in the mid-1990s gave lower decision-making powers to forest owners than in any of the Western Europe countries; over the next 20 years

Thurgau Institute of Economics and Department of Economics at the University of

Thurgau Institute of Economics and Department of Economics at the University of