The Role of Surface Transportation
History of Development and Prospects for the Next Century Nebojsa Nakicenovic *
Abstract
The paper begins with an analysis of the growth of surface transport systems. We analyze ex post the convergent development of rail and road transport reaching divergent densities in different countries. This then serves as an illustrative case to investigate further the diffusion of the automobile, and to derive a global scenario for future automobile fleets. Based on our conclusions with respect to the future evolution of transport system structure and scenario of forthcoming global satura- tion in automobile diffusion, we then discuss the long-term development possibilities for more productive surface transport systems such as maglev trains. Ultimately, further increases in mobility would require the introduction of new and more productive and environmentally clean transport modes. This hypothesis will be used to determine what the possible effects would be if barriers to mobility are removed. Alter- natives include examples of both the development of new physical infrastructures (e.g., a high-speed rail network) and the reduction of institutional and political obstacles (e.g., the former iron curtain).
Imposition on new institutional and political barriers would have the opposite effect of reducing mobility and decoupling previous functional unities into separate entities.
* Dr. Neboji!a Nakicenovic is Leader of Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies Project at the Inter- national Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361 La.xenburg, Austria; telephone no. ( +43-2236}
71521-0; telefax no. ( +43-2236} 71313.
