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Confining the evolution of ice wedges in a warming climate

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Confining the evolution of ice wedges in a warming climate

Introduction

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Evolution of surface topography Thawing of organic matter

Subsurface states

Jan Nitzbon Léo Martin Kjetil S. Aas Moritz Langer

Sebastian Westermann Julia Boike

Check out our new article in

The Cryosphere !

Ice wedges melt due to Arctic warming, but stabilize under moderate warming .

Abrupt thaw processes significantly increase the yearly amount of thawed organic matter .

• Small-scale processes in ice-rich permafrost require improved representation in large-scale models.

Ice-wedge degradation is increasingly reported throughout the Arctic permafrost region and affects water, energy,

and carbon fluxes

• We projected the future evolution of ice wedges.

water body formation under waterlogged

conditions stabilization

under moderate warming

lateral erosion delays degradation

continued degradation

under strong warming

talik formation

underneath water body burial of wedge ice

under flat topography

high-centered polygons with dry centers

warming climate increases total thawed organic matter

by end of century ( )

hydrology controls

aerobic / anaerobic conditions

after

degradation balanced

aerobic / anearobic conditions

prior to degradation

abrupt thawing increases total thawed organic matter

compared to gradual only ( )

Liljedahl, A. K. et al. (2016). Pan-Arctic ice-wedge degradation in warming permafrost and its influence on tundra hydrology. Nature Geoscience, 9(4), 312–318.

Nitzbon, J., Langer, M., Westermann, S., Martin, L., Aas, K. S., & Boike, J. (2019). Pathways of ice-wedge degradation in polygonal tundra under different hydrological conditions. The Cryosphere, 13(4), 1089–1123.

Westermann, S. et al. (2016). Simulating the thermal regime and thaw processes of ice-rich permafrost ground with the land-surface model CryoGrid 3. Geosci. Model Dev., 9(2), 523–546.

References

w at er lo gg ed dr ai ne d

RCP4.5 RCP8.5

w at er lo gg ed dr ai ne d

2100 (RCP4.5) 2100 (RCP8.5)

2000

RCP4.5 RCP8.5

w at er lo gg ed dr ai ne d

Liljedahl et al. (2016)

Laterally coupled tiles, representing landscape units of polygonal tundra

• Simulations for different hydrologic conditions and warming scenarios ground subsidence due to

excess ice melt lateral sediment transport

as stabilizing process

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