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89<:-i<:=0+1%-B<:=u6(=k0+?)6(8'A0)&0)-(nF6;WbD0)1-&(cc89<9u/&0+<96(=6e4FbD,.6(?)-@c%?+-$ug<H'A-/8:a6e43&
0h;6'+<9C-$Csv Ú þ
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0+1%-@6?+<9>(<9=%&(8è,.6C-/8;&'luf12&e=>-/CJnid1%&e=>-/'l<9= S 6? V <9= \A]^ _ 6?5<:= ÷ <:= \A]$¡(_ 6(?
<9=[0+1-U?)-/'+<9C*2&e8E&(?+<H&e=%u-i6e4Fjy6e0)1~,.6C-8H'q89-/&C0+6'A1<:4Ä0)'6(?@'+u/&e89-uf1%&(=>(-$'q<9=[0+1-
-,.c<9?)<9u/&e8?)-/'+<9C*%&e8H'W'A-/?+<9-/'/nçp-=%u-(bD0)1-Bc?)6(j2&ej<98:<:0ha6(43&(=[&e8H&e?), 'A<9>(=2&e89-/Cjkas0+1-
Sample partial autocorrelation function (pacf)
5 10 15 20
lag
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 pacf*E-2
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EA .A]T1;')(R_+IO
PQ FA TDCA]`E%<_.8ABE ]` "acbedfgh [1J F ij k l(RmRno!
d&dApR.98q8r8AID ?sKS%h2.tk*vuFbwgAfx&y&gz@:{8|+6 }MKv98
E ]` W~r<l.W.DWIddkN$Om>]" }Up88A]TEA9M%& !lu`2.WV&.01h&
8 A ]"?^G..]`EA p<>8A98I2..21&]e!#A%Z%01!# WZ [ _1AAOrPQ IA
DCA]`E%l8A>8GkEU8A.2.! A ]"?^G2. ^^0$01T.<)<>?8*K& G.]T%`KM%A
:=k 9tkADiQ) 9T0.^\<>%8|t&[ kDk&AN$O\l8AT.]T0.*!_.}<> ..*dO%0zy&d&
[1/}A k.2.>yAOyk`D& & &12$l A ]"?^G"Ol8A\!=M>9.l!8A12.^ VA%&
lX^GEA2kE[M !Z D21AOR.%GpM8A)!=M%2.%01WR8%&8A !=2.
2 ] 9M&OXM<)K p%><_&A1rVUW]98]T s]TEAM01`ZAR BEAE &EA 2M
12.^ VA%& R8Al 0.21. [1.,8A.l 0.?9.!#& 8A> 0$9XD ?kKMAO
l8A6A .ry [1oEA . k8Ah3,45+(e& EA8."!W8AhEA i A @ [1v8A
]T A%& A*E[ 1/:{!# ]]T 98pk0xM8px&xk)sEA %py8p0xxxkN$O5PQ 8_EA Dij A
EU %1T8A*3,45+(598 _. .]T.Ol8>Z 9.^lz2 ]"..]V[*% 9.p
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tkA%`^GEA!# *8`E i A 6EU 1Ol8AZ .W. % 68AT]T A%& ArE[ 1
<l.X&V% 1R8y8&V. KS I:#OO*d&yk¡gM¡xkN$Oll8A p <)&V. K&W]T
!# tkA k%G.%& 2.*8 6 68ATEA Dij A hE[ 1p 8T98[ A&.s ]T `E[ .. k
[1I.;& A8&.\6&..A]Tp8[M8A/EA Dij A |]`1,2. A; KS%21O;( A<
')(R_+¢8[.)8 D!# sTVU\ZA1B 1p?! A.. G&pk8A .1A 1EU !#&%T8.
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