Energy Consumption and Technological Developments

TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS

V asilij R. Okorokov

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Laxen burg, Austria

RR-90-1 February 1990

Reprinted from ACTA POLYTECHNICA, 2(III, 1) 1989.

INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS Laxenburg, Austria

Research Reports, which record research conducted at IIASA, are independently reviewed before publication. However, the views and opinions they express are not necessarily those of the Institute or the National Member Organizations that support it.

Reprinted with permission from ACTA POLYTECHNICA, 2(III, 1) 1989, Techni- cal University of Prague.

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmit- ted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the copyright holder.

Printed by Novographic, Vienna, Austria

Foreword

Throughout mankind's history, energy consumption has changed substan- tially due to the growth of the world's population and the great changes in human activities. The world's population continues to increase, having nearly doubled during the past third of this century. World energy con- sumption has increased even more rapidly, having more than quadrupled over the same period. The observation of historical consumption data over a significant time period, made by the author of this article, clearly indi- cates that there are no reasons to expect an interruption of this growth in the future which is considered to be the most important stage in the his- tory of energy consumption. Each level of energy consumption has been accompanied by the corresponding primary energy sources and by the energy-related technological development.

According to the author's conclusions, the development of energy systems will be determined in the near future (the next 30-40 years) by contemporary energy technologies based on the exploitation of traditional energy resources, but in the more distant future technologies based on the exploitation of thermonuclear and solar energy will play the decisive role.

Future energy development will be determined to a great extent by social and ecological factors and by the public's acceptance of new energy techno- logies. The Technology, Economy, and Society Program at IIASA has been involved for several years in assessing the socioeconomic and ecologi- cal determinants of global energy development and will continue to study this activity in more depth.

PROF. F. SCHMIDT-BLEEK Leader Technology, Economy, and Society Program

ENERGY CONSUMPTION ANO TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS

vasilij komanovic 0 k o r o k o v

The paper determines an outline of the world energy prospects based on principal trends of the development of energy consumption analysed over the long past period.

According to the author's conclusion the development of ener- gy systems will be determined in the nearest future (30 - 40 years) by contemporary energy technologies based on the exploitation of traditional energy resources but in the far future technologies ba- sed on the exploitation of thermonuclear and solar energy will play the decisive role.

INTRODUCTION

One of the characteristic features of our time is the fact that a common viewpoint is shared by the energy community that our society is in a transient state towards new sustainable energy systems. Such new sustainable energy systems should be more effi- cient, reliable and safer, invironmentally cleaner and flexible to future energy demand. Many opinions exist as to what these new energy systems should look like and the possible paths of transi- tion to this future. The first Energy Program, carried out at !!ASA under the leadership of Prof. W. Hafele, showed that possible bases for sustainable energy systems are nuclear fission and fusion and hard solar power /1/. And with hydrogen as a possible energy carri- er nuclear and solar systems seem to be very reasonable and promis- ing as a sustainable energy option /8/. Novel horizontally integra- ted energy systems /2/ were considered the most favorable transition to this energy future along with the use of methanol /11/. The past years have brought about a change. First, estimates for oil and gas reserves and resources have changed substantially. Second, the pri- ce for oil decreased despite of many forecasts and third, Three

Vasilij Romanovic 0 k o r o k o v

Mile Island and Chernobyl caused serious debates about the future of nuclear energy. In spite of these new circumstances and consi- dering old uncertainties about the future energy demand, it will be interesting to observe the historical human energy consumption and energy technology development. As the proverb states, the futu- re exists in the past, this exercise will help in assessing future energy development.

HISTORICAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION ANO FUTURE PROSPECTS

Human societies use energy for many purposes. The level of energy consumption varies from country to country and region to region, depending on resource availability, technological develop- ment, economics and other factors such as lifestyle, culture, cli- matic conditions, etc. At present, total consumption of all forms of energy is very high (Fig. 1).

During the next half hour you spend reading this article about 25D,OOO tons of coal will be mined worldwide. During the sa- me half hour, over 1.0 million barrels of crude oil, or about 150,000 tons, will be extracted worldwide and nearly 100 million cubic meter of natural gas will be pumped from wells or separated from crude oil. Further, 0.5 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity will be transmitted from power plants - energy which could light up five billion 100 W light bulbs during that half hour (Tab. 1).

Valued in per capita terms, these energy flows amount to nearly 7D GJ annually, equivalent to about 2.5 Lons of hard coal or 1.6 tons of crude oil for ~~ery inhabitant of this planet.

Throughout the history energy consumption has changed sub- stantially (Tab. 2). There are at least seven stages of the energy consumption level which reflect human development (Fig. 2). The primitive man, about one million years ago, had only the energy content in the food he ate. The hunting man, who lived about 100,DOO years ago, produced more food and used wood for heating and cooking. For these reasons his energy consumption increased.

The primitive agricultural man, who lived about 5000 B.C., produ- ced crops and used animal power for cultivation, and his energy consumption level was much higher than that for the hunting man.

By 14DO A.O., the advanced agricultural man used already coal for heating and also water and wind power. This enabled him to produ- ce more food and to trade his products. The industrial man of the

6

WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION

1986 8 , 0 Gtoe

WORLD ENERGY PROVEN RESERVES

1986 1106 Gtoe

32% - Coal

41% - Oil

23%

4%

Natural Gas Uranium Oil - 10%

Natural Gas-7%

--.=---!

Uranium - 2%

Coal - 81%

Source : World Energy Conference 1986

Fig. 1 World Energy Proven Reserves of Non-renewable Energy Sources and Structure of World Energy Consumption

r--- ---1--- --- --- - --- ---- --- --- ,

:---~~~E9~-~!Q~~i-~QE!9~!9~i_!~----: Energy Sources : Half an Hour : One Hour : One Year :

--- -1---L--

^{I I}

---- -- ----L

^I

--- ---'

¹

Coal (t) : 250,000 500,000 : 4.4 x 109 :

I I 9 I

Crude oil (t) : 150,000 300,000 : 2.63 x 10 : Natural gas (million m3): 100, 000 200, 000 : 1. 85 x 1012 : Electricity (kWh)

i

^{0.5 x 109 , 1.0 x 109} , 8.8 x 1012

i

----~-----~---

Table 1 Global Energy Flows in 1987

Vasilij Romanovic 0 k 0 r 0 k 0 v

I ⁶⁰⁰

z

I

<(

4

::E

z ^....I /z ⁵⁰⁰

z ^{<( <(}

<( ::!: u

I

^<(

::!: ^{....I (!)} ::!:

....I ^<( 0

I

^{....I 400}

<( a: ^{....I <(}

:::> 0

I

^en

a: _I- z a:

:::> ....I ::c ^w

I-^....I :::> _{~ u} :::> a: z <( ::!: u w I- I I

:::

^z :::> 300

z ^{(!) ....I}

v

<( z ^a: (!) ^<( ~

::!: ^<( _{<( 0} a:

w ::!: w w I- 200

> ^(!) > ^{u en} :::>

E

^z t= ^{z <( 0}

::E t= _{~ >} z

z ₀

a: :::> a: ^{<( 100}

0.. ::c 0..

FORECAST 0

106 105 104 103 100 10 0 10 100 103

YEARS AGO YEARS AHEAD

2 5 12 26 77 230 545

V. Okorokov, llASA, 1988

Fig. 2 Huma:;i Energy Cons'...lnption Throughout History - Daily per Capita Consumption (1000 kcal)

--- ---!

I 1 - -- _g~!

!Y.

_~~~

-

~~12!!~_, ~Qf:!~l;!f!l!2!!g~ -~ ! ggg_~,~~!2 __ :

:Food : Residential : Industry : Trans- : Total

1 and 1 and 1 porta- 1

, , : Commercial : Agricul- : tion :

I I I I ture I I

L __________________ J _____ l ______________ J __________ J _______ J _____ _

I I I I I I

1Primitive man 1 2 1 1 1 1 2

I I I I

:Hunting man : 3 2 : : 5

I I I I

: Primitive agricul-: : :

, tural man 1 4 4 4 1 1 12

I I I

: Advanced agric:ul- : :

1 tural man 6 12 1 7 1 1 1 26

I I I I

: Industrial man 7 32 : 24 : 14 : 77

I I I

: Technological man 1 10 66 : 91 1 63 : 230

: Universal manlE) : 35 100 : 220 : 190 1 545 , --~; s~~r~:~ ~

-E". -

c~~k".- s~i;n-tir i;-A~~;i-c~~ ~ -se~t~~b";r-1971-- - - ---- - ---- ---

Estimates by V. Okorokov, IIASA, 1988

Table 2 Energy Consumption Throughout History

8

late 19th century introduced the steam engine as a source for me- chanical energy and added electricity as a new source for industri- al development. Therefore, total energy consumption increased many times in comparison with the advanced agricultural man. The modern technological man utilizes advanced steam and gas turbines, elec- trical engines and nuclear reactors as well as rockets as tools for technological development, improving his physical comfort and quality of life. As can be seen from the historical energy consump- tion data for the whole period of human existence, there was a con- tinuous growth in energy demand (Fig. 2). During the last two cen- turies this growth was substantial, which is the most revealing sign of mankind's rising civilization. And there are no reason to interrupt this growth in the future, which we consider the seventh stage in the history of energy consumption.

For many reason, the future energy consumption must be con- sidered the most important stage in the history of mankind. First of all, alterations to the natural resources will continue in or- der to use their energy more effectively, which will increase the future energy growth. Second, technological progress will continue in all directions of human activity - in agriculture, transporta- tion, and industrial and residential areas. Great progress will be made also in space. The universal man will not only travel through the universe, but also do everything in order to use na- ture's forces in the most universal way. The universal man will consume much more energy than the technological man. As can be seen from Fig. 2, the daily per capita energy consumption in lDO years will be not less than 545,000 kcal, i.e., 2.37 times more than the daily energy consumption of the technological man. He will consu- me more energy for food production and its storage, for housing and transportation and for his innovative-technological activity, which will include agriculture, industry and commerce in their cur- rent meaning. More energy consumption will allow mankind many other activities, hard to envisage now. For example, using other planets and oceans as raw mineral basins and new energy sources and using deserts for agriculture and for growing energy production, etc.

Energy is the blood of human activity and growing human activity provides new possibilities for increased energy production.

Vasilij Romanovi~ 0 k o r o k o v ENERGY CONSUMPTION ANO SUBSTITUTION

Each level of energy consumption was accompanied by the corresponding primary energy sources. The primitive man used only wild food in order to have energy for his physical activities. The hunting man used wood as the main energy source. The primitive agricultural man used farm waste and the advanced agricultural man used animal, water and wind power. The industrial man fulfilled his energy needs with coal and the technological man uses natural gas and oil as the main energy sources (Fig. 3). Following this way of thinking it is possible to conclude that the universal man will use nuclear fusion and solar energy as the source with the highest energy content. From this observation one can conclude that growing energy consumption is also accompanied by the corresponding primary energy sources with higher energy content (Fig. 4). This observation also shows that at the early stages of energy consump- tion man used mostly local energy sources which were more accessi- ble and only at later stages man used more complicated energy sour- ces like water power, coal and, of course, oil, gas, and nuclear.

The process of energy substitution does not have a consis- tent pattern. Consumption of previous energy sources continues although with a declining share. This is the result of related energy technology development, which will be discussed in the next section.

BRIEF HISTORY OF ENERGY TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT

Throughout the history, the growth of energy consumption was accompanied by the energy-related technology development. On one side this growth was a result of the progress in energy techno- logy development but on the other side it stimulated inventions.

Energy-related technology development has a very long history. It started over more than one million years B.C., when the hunting man made use of fire. During this period many discoveries were ma- de and many inventions were carried out 1Tab. 3). The most impor- tant discoveries in energy development were made during the past two centuries (invention of the steam engine, discovery of electri- city and nuclear power, etc.), which encouraged a dramatic increa- se in industrial and technological developments and their related energy consumption increases (Fig. 2). Energy technology develop-

10

2 1

Year million million 15000 3500 1500 1300 1000 700 400 B.C. 27

A.o.25o

600 1116 1200 1230 1600 1688 1694 1712 1743 1747 1769 1800 1802 1831 1834 1837 1860 1876 1879 1881 1883 1894 1895 1903 1904 1905 1927 1937 1942 1945 1951 1952 1954 1957 1961 1969 1986 1987 Near future Distant future

Event First use of stones as tools

First use of fire by hunter-gatherer societies Beginning of pottery

Rise nf cities, first use of metal, invention of wheel Invention of lever

First tools made from smelted iron

Chinese produced natu~al gas from 3000-ft wells and transported the gas in bamboo pipelines;gas was used for space heating and light First use of pulley

First drilling for oil Invention of waterwheel

Chinese first to use water mills and gunpowder Windmills development by Arabs

First use of cannons in Europe Coal mining begun in Europe

Rockets and hot-air balloons development in China Firewood and timber scarcity in England

First distillation of coal gas Shale oil produced in England

Invention of steam engine by Thomas Newcomen Water turbine development

Discovery of atmospheric electricity by Benjamin Franklin First automobile (three-wheeled steam-powered vehicle by Cugnot in France)

Electric battery built by Volta First steam locomotive

Electric generator developed by Faraday in England Electric motor developed by Thomas Davenport First electric automobile

First internal combustion engine (two cycle)

Bell invented telephone; Otto built first four-cycle internal combustion engine

Edison invented incandescent light bulb

'irst hydroelectric power plant. Godalming, England iteam turbine developed

Jiesel engine developed Discovery of X-rays

Wright brothers flew first airplane Invention of radio communication

Einstein dis2overed the relationship between energy and mass: E = me

First nonstop transatlantic flight from New York to Paris (Lindbergh)

First regular television broadcast (Great Britain) First atomic fission reactor (Chicago)

Atomic bomb used for the first time on human populations (Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan)

First electronic computer built for commercial applications Hydrogen bomb exploded by the United States (first fusion bomb) First commercial nuclear power plant in the USSR First satellite launched in the USSR

First J.Gagarin space flight First lunar landing

Discovery of high temperature superconductor Nuclear fusion ITER project signed in Vienna

Many inventions are at the doorstep (superconductivity etc.) Many scientific and technological inventions to come

Table 3 Brief History of Energy-Related Development

...

N

---~

. . ,~ Non-renewable sources} Substantial contributions to man's eneryy needs:

- Renewable sources

Present /

Past Future

I

I

Fusion /

Lithium-6 - c::::::::3

c::::::J

Locally important energy sources Insignificant as energy sources

_ ( 1

1 Deuterium•

Solar energy

t---~

^{... -.·.-.·."j'(.:.:-:.:.:.:.•}

Coal Wind power Water power Animal power Cultivated food Wood and vegetable material

Wild food

106 10•

Years into the past

101

.-.-.·.·.·;•,·.·.·.·-.;;··.--:r.~.·.-r:·.-.·.·.·~:·.-.·.o:·-;•:·~·:o;•;•~·-;·.·.·.·.·.·.-.

I

I I

10 10² 10• 1a6

Years into the future

Fig. 4 History of Energy Sources Substitution and Prognoses for the Future (Source: Earl Cook, Technology Review, MIT, December 1972.

V. Okorokov, IIASA, 1988)

<

Q) Ul ...

...

400 ...

'-'·

::0 0 3

__J

<(

I!

(.)

~

300 ⁰ 0 0

0

z

"

0

j:: ⁰

Cl.. ^"'I

::.iE :::::>

0

(/)

"

200

z 0 ⁰

(.) <

<(

I-

0....

<(

100 (.)

a: w

Cl..

>-

__J

<(

0 0

I -VJ

I -~

0 _,

g_

(/) UJ u 5 _w 0 er UJ

0 ~ 0..

u.

0

I -::>

Cl.

I -::>

0 2 ::>

2 x

<i 2

56

NUCLEAR

a: < ^{48 OIL}

0 zW >-

- a: 40 _GAS

f- w

...

~<

::> f- 32

Cl) -

z ... _COAL

0 <t

uu ₂₄

>- a:

(!) w a: ...

w ::> 16 ANIMAL LABOR

z ^f- w co

"'

FARM WASTE

0 8 WOOD

:::::. ---~_:-:

__

0 FOOD

10,000 1,000 100 10

Fig. 3 Consumption of the world's Energy Resources through the Ages

10⁷ 106

10⁵

10⁴

103

102

10

10-'

10-2 1700

(Source: Energy Perspectives, Edison Electric Institute, February 1976. V.Okorokov, IIASA, 1988)

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

Fig. 5 Power output of Basic Machines

(Source: Ch.Starr, Scientific America~,

September 1971. V. Okorokov, IIASA, 1988)

13

Vasilij Romanovif 0 k o r o k o v

ments came about in two ways. The first resulted in an increase in the number of machines and the second in an increase of the power output of a certain machine (Fig. 5). For example, for the steam engine and its successor, the steam turbine, the total increase in power output has been more than six orders - from less than a kilo- watt to more than a million. This process of energy technology de- velopment will continue. Many inventions are now at the doorstep (superconductivity etc.) and many scientific and technological in- ventions are to come.

SOCIOECONOMIC FEATURES OF ENERGY DEVELOPMENT

The specific features of today's energy development are of economic, social and ecological nature. The most characteristic property is the continuous growth of energy consumption and, as was mentioned, there are no reasons to stop this growth. But this continuous growth in energy consumption is accompanied by a decli- ning energy intensity, due to technological progress on one hand to energy conservation policies on the other. Growing energy consump- tion is also accompanied by an increasing share of high quality, final energy carriers. Electricity, oil and oil products, natural gas and gaseous products are energy carriers which all tend to in- crease their share in the final energy balance. And this tendency will continue because high quality energy carriers are needed in order to ensure a continuous social and technological progress.

Another reason for this is the need for harmony between energy de- velopment and environment. There are many ways to achieve such har- mony which will not be discussed here in detail. One way in this direction are the low-waste (emission free) energy production sys- tems based on the integration of different forms of energy produc- tion /2, 10/ and on low-waste energy technologies. We believe that such future integrated energy systems will dominate not only from an environmental point of view but also because of the increased need for an efficient use of primary energy sources. The consumption of clean, renewable energy sources like wind, hydro and others, will increase also due to the mentioned reasons, but they will only cover local needs. The use of these renewable energy sources on a global scale is unlikely in the foreseeable future.

One of the most important features of future energy develop- ment will be, technologically, the rationalization of energy consum-

14

ption, possible with the implementatio~ of computers in energy sys- tems operation and control. Socially, the integration of different energy production systems will also assist in the rationalization of energy consumption.

FUTURE ENERGY FORECASTS

It is obvious now that energy forecasts are very unreiiable because future energy development depends on many economic and so- cial factors which are unknown at present. Many forecasts are of limited value /4, 7/. Despite this fact we would like to give some highlights concerning the future energy developments, keeping in mind the proverb, which says that the future exists in the past.

As mentioned, energy ~onsumption will continue. The present world energy consumption exceeds 8.26 Gtoe per year. The total world pro- ven energy reserves are 1106 Gtoe /13/. Assuming an increasing ener- gy consumption with annual rates of 1-2 %, then the world proven energy reserves will be exhausted in one hundred years (Fig. 6).

Of course, this estimate is relative due to the possible technolo- gical progress, which will increase the reserves, and the discove- ries of new energy resources. But it does not matter at what period the world proven energy reserves will be exhausted, during the next 80 or 120 years. It is obvious that in the foreseeable future all traditionally exploited proven energy reserves will be exhausted and we will have to use alternativ~ energy sources. As can be seen from Fig. 6, in the long-term future there arP only two primary energy sources, which are able to meet the demand of the growing energy consumption, namely, nuclear fusion and solar. The energy potential of these sources is high enough to maintain the continui- ty of energy services during the next one million years or so, But what primary energy sources will maintain the continuity of the ser- vice in the short- and medium-term, let's say, during the next 25- -30 and 50-70 years? The answer to this question depends on the availability of traditionally used energy sources and their techno- logical, economical, ecological and social conditions of exploita- tion. In order to answer this question it is necessary to consider the above mentioned factors. Let us try to do this.

Vasilij Romanovic 0 k o r o k o v

1035

1030

1025

1020

(/) w -' :::i

~ ₁₀₁₅

1010

10

DAILY OUTPUT OF SUN (ALL DIRECTIONS)

ENERGY OF DEUTERIUM ATOMS IN WORLD'S OCEANS

-

,,,.,,,,.,,.,

/ ' ENERGY FROM LOW COST LITHIUM USED IN FUSION REACTORS WORLD ENERGY PROVEN RESERVES OF NRE (WEC, 86) -

WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION (1987)

\WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION (1900)

\ WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION (1400)

ENERGY FROM 1 TOE

ENERGY FROM 1 m3 NATURAL GAS

\ 1 KILOWATT-HOUR (3.6)

- 1 BTU (1.055)

PRESENT PAST

I ^FUTURE

I I

10

YEARS INTO THE PAST YEARS INTO THE FUTURE

Fig. 6 History of World Energy Consumption and Prospects for the Future

AVAILABILITY OF FOSSIL ENERGY SOURCES

The energy potential of the proven fossil energy sources is high enough to meet the growing energy consumption of manki~d during the next century. It is very possible also that during this period the current proven world energy sources will increase. Additional utilization of renewable energy sources, e.g., hydro and wind, will also extend the time horizon of the traditionally used energy sour- ces. Therefore, from the availability point of view no great changes are expected in the world energy consumption pattern.

16

TECHNOLOGICAL PROSPECTS

There are many technologies on the world energy market, the traditional ones and the new ones. Among the traditional technolo- gies, the oil, natural gas, coal and hydro based utilization of the- se technologies have good prospects. Nuclear technologies have not the experience as the traditional ones, and their technological po- tential is not fully expanded yet. There are many indicators that the next generation of nuclear technologies will have much more ad- vanced technical and economic properties than the today's have /4, 5/. There are many new energy technologies like MHD generation, photovoltaic power generation, fuel cell power generation, etc., which are on the world energy market, but their technical proper- ties cannot compete with the traditional technologies. There are also many well-known technologies based on alternative energy sour- ces, e.g., wind, solar, geothermal, but today's level of their tech- nological development is not sufficient to provide the continuity of the growing energy demand. Hence, for the near-and medium-term, there is no evidence that the traditionally used energy technologi- es will be replaced by the new ones. Only one new energy technology, nuclear, has promising future prospects.

ECONOMICS OF ENERGY SUBSTITUTION

Production costs for one unit of traditionally used primary

~nergy sources are now less than those for one unit of the new ener- gy sources. With one exception, and this is nuclear energy. Nuclear energy competitiveness has suffered because of increased standards for reliability and safety. The renewables, e.g., wind, solar, geo- thermal, due to their low economic potential, can only be conside- red additional energy sources. Therefore, it is unlikely that the situation will change in the near- or medium-term.

ECOLOGICAL PROSPECTS

Ecological requirements for future energy development will increase to a great extent. The anthropogenic energy flow is equal to or more than that of the natural energies,e.g., thermal gradients of oceans and surface, tides, etc., and in the next century it will exceed the level of natural energies (Tab. 4). The ecological impact

17

Vasilij Romanovie O k o r o k o v

·---~---,

: : Energy (TW) :

I !---~

: : At Middle of :

: : Present Next Century :

·---~---~

I I

: Anthropogenic Energy 6.0 - 7.0 55.0 - 100.0 :

I I

Capacity of Power Plants 2.5 25.0 - 40.0 :

Thermal gradients of oceans and surface

Tides and low tides Hurricanes (tornadoes) Earthquakes

2.0 - 2.5 5.0 - 6.0 20.0 -30.0 25.0 -40.0

I I I I I I I I I I I I

, 1 (and more) :

!---~---~

Table 4 Comparison of natural and Anthropogenic Energy Flows

of current energy systems is very high and will increase in the fu- ture, if energy production will continue to be based on exi~ting

technologies and traditional primary energy sources. Future energy development will take at least three different directions. First, under equal conditions, preference will be given to the clean ener- gy sources, e.g., natural gas, nuclear and others. Second, current technologies will be improved in quick response to the increasing ecological requirements. Third, no waste or low waste technologies will enter the energy market, many of them are at the pilot stage today /4/. It is very likery that for the near-term the first two directions will be taken, but for the medium term the third option will determine the energy development.

SOCIAL ASPECTS

Energy development has both positive and negative social effects. First of all, energy development is a pre-condition for economic and social development thereby improving the living stan- dard. Throughout the history, increasing energy consumption has dramatirally changed the structure of human activities: man's lei- sure time and formal education has increased but time spent for his working activities has decreased substantially (Fig. 7). Also the life expectancy of mankind has greatly increased: from 18 years for the primitive man to more than 75 years for the technological man. Along with this, also the quality and variety of food and goods

18

Primitive man 18 years

Agricultural man 35 years

Industrial man 70 years

Creative &

leisure time

Work mg Formal education Miscellaneous Eating

Sleeping

Fig. 7 How Man has spent his Time (Source: Energy Perspectives, Edison Electric Institute, February 1976

Energy Sectors

I

Nonenergy Sectors

I

Macroeconomic lndit:fi

Output volume - - - . GNP

and structure

Consumption

Investment

Labor Labor

requirements market---+~

Energy cost Labor

and quality productivity

Fig. 8 Energy-Economy Interrelationship

Vasilij Romanovi~ 0 k o r o k o v

used have increased: from natural products to a variety of compli- cated products with many useful properties. Living space, environ- ment, and travel distances also have changed - the primitive man only knew his cave and immediate surrounding whereas today's man knows the whole world, due to modern transport and communications systems. And the universal man will know the universe. First steps in this direction have been made by space flights, landing on the moon, etc. These positive social changes will continue to have in- fluence on future energy development thereby still increasing ener- gy consumption, particularly the consumption of energy sources with high energy content and quality, e.g., nuclear energy, natural gas and oil products, electricity, etc.

But energy development also has negative social impacts. The infrastructure of the current energy systems consists of many com- ponents requiring different processes - from the extraction of raw materials and fossil fuels to the energy production in its different forms. Development of an energy complex infrastructure requires big amounts of capital, material, and labor resources, due to the com- plicated energy-economy interrelationships (Fig. 8). Assessments made in the USSR for the energy complex requirements of a national economy show that over 30 % of all capital investments in industry and more than 19 % of the aggregate capital investments of the whole economy are allocated to the development of fuel and power production systems /6, 10, 12/. To this should be added considera- ble investments allocated to supply energy to branches which are not part of the energy sector, e.g., boiler stations, small-size power plants, etc. For the operation and future development of the energy systems, 6-8 % of the gross output for machinery production and 11-12 % for construction materials are used directly; but if we take into account all material inputs of the related economic sectors, the share of the energy complex in the consuming industrial products can grow two to six times /12/. The continuous capital- and material-intensive growth of the energy complex and the related increasing share of national resources consumption can result in an decrease of the national income growth rates and particularly in decreasing consu~ption funds. Calculations have shown that a growth of this share from 14-20 % can result in slower annual average in- crement rates for the national income by 0,1 % and that for the con- sumption fund by 0.2 %, under a more intensive economic development, and by 0.25 and 0. 7, respectively, under a more extensive develop-

20

ment. If the share in national resources consumption of the energy complex exceeds 25 ~. then it will be likely to cause some dispro- portions in the development of the national economy /9/. Considering this social effect, it will be preferable to have a less capital- and material-intensive energy development.

But there is still another negative effect, the so-called social instability /10/. Each component pf an energy system is sub- ject to social instability but their relative importance depends on the energy system and the type of fuel used. Social instability is caused by two factors: direct and indirect damage due to emissions at all stages of energy production, and the potential damage due to possible failures, accidents, explosion, etc. Direct and indi- rect damages are of stable character and exist as long as energy systems are operating; potential damage has a probabilityciraracter: it may or may not be. The accident probability for a single power plant is very small but increases with the number of power plants.

The amounts of raw materials and fossil fuels used for energy pro- duction today are enormous. The annual global fuel consumption amounts to about 10 billion tons of coal equivalent. Potential dama- ge due to possible accidents along the energy chain (tanker acci- dents, gas and oil pipeline explosions, power plant failures, etc.) is probably equal or higher when compared to wars, natural cata- strophes, and others (tornadoes, etc.). Accidents which occurred during the last years (Three Mile Island, Chernobyl) witness that damage caused by such events is very high and must be considered in the decision making process.

The direct and indirects costs of power generation can be calculated, but it is very difficult to estimate social instability costs for each component of the energy system: direct and indirect damage due to emissions and potential damage due to possible acci- dents. There are many reasons for the ineffective assessment of so- cial instability costs. First, the information basis for such

assessments in general is inadequate due to uncertainty, complexity, and the lack of systematic management of this problem. Second, the

importance of such an assessment became evident only in the last years, when the consequences of social instability turned into so- cial hazards.

Today's decision makers do not have reliable methods of esti- mating social costs for electricity production. T~e public, from a social point of view, estimates the costs of electricity produc-

N N

r---~---~---~---r---~---~---.---1---,

I I I I I I I I I I I

: Type of : Energy :Renewable : Air : Water : Land : Visual : Thermal : Wilderness : Noise : : Energy : Significance : yes/no : Poll.: Poll. : Impact: Poll. : Poll. : Impact : Poll. :

L---L---J---J---L---L---J---J---'-- --- ---J---1

I t I I I I I I

I I I I I I I I

l Oil l 4 l N 3 i 2 l 4 l 3 l 2 l

I I I I I I I I

: Natural gas : 3 : N 1 : 1 : 1 l 1 l 2 l

1 I I I I I I I

: Coal 4 : N 4 : 3 : 3 : 2 : 3 ¹

I I I I I I

: Synfuels Exp. : N 1 l 3 I 3 I 2 ! 2

I I I I I

I Nuclear fission 2 l N 1 l 1 l 1 I

l (normal) l I l l

I I I I I

l Nuclear fission 1 : N 4 : 4 l 4 l

l (accident) l l l l

I I I I I

Nuclear fusion Exp. I ? ? l ? l ? l

I

Geothermal Solar Hydro Wood Wind Biomass Tidal OTEC l Wave power

I

l Conservation

I I

I I I I

1 : ? 1 : 1 : l l

I I I I

2 :

v o : a : i :

2 2 1 1 1 Exp.

Exp.

3

y y y y

? y y y

0 4 0 1 0 0 0 1 indoor)

I I I

: 1 : 3 :

I I I

: 1 : 1 :

I I I

: 0 : 1 :

I I I

I 1 : 2 :

1 1 1 0

I I

: 0 :

I I

: 0 :

I I

1 0 :

I I

: 0 :

I I

I I

1

?

? 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 1

2 3

? 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 Table 5 Environmental Analysis of Various Energy Resources

3 1 3 2 1

4

? 2 1 2 1 1 1 1

? 2 0

(Exp., experimental; 0, negligible; 1, some; 2, considerable;

3, very much; 4, extreme; ?, unknown.

Source: Based on a chart dev~loped by Jane Albee, Vermont Technical College

Randolph Center, VT.J '

2 1 1 2 1

?

? 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 0

<

Q)

... en ...

...

::0 0 3 Ol ::>

< 0

...

O<

0 7' 0

...,

0 7' 0

<

Toxic chemical disposal facility

area

Oil power plant

Nuclear waste disposal facility

Natural gas power plant

0

Nuclear waste disposal facility

Insecticide factory

I

^Oil

Oil power plant LNG

refinery storage

Nuclear area

power plant Coal power plant

Natural gas power plant

100%

LOW ACCEPTANCE HIGH ACCEPTANCE

Fig. 9 Acceptance Scale for Eight Different Facilities

15 000

2000 1000

in Two Surveys (Source: Upper data, Lindell and Earle, 1983, p. 249, Lower data, Lindell et al., 1978)

Coal Otl Gas LWR STEC Occupational

~ ff

²

00~5

⁰⁰⁰

,. ,oo ^ru ~

Accidental injury

fl

Accidental death

m

Fatal disease [] range

1 fatality • 6000 lost man-days

Coal Oil Gas LWR STEC Public

STEC • Solar therm11 11ec:tron conversion LWR • L19hl·water reactor

Fig. 10 Risk Comparison of Energy Technologies

Vasilij Romanovic 0 k o r c k o v

tion measured by the level acceptance. Figure 9 and Table 5 give a comparison of the level of public acceptance for different facili-

ties. It can be seen that the level of acceptance for nuclear power plants is much lower than that for coal power plants, despite the occupational health hazards associated with electricity production for those two plants (Fig. 10). It seems that in the future social costs and social acceptance will play a much bigger role than in the past. The development of nuclear energy (e.g., in Austria, Swe- den, the USA, etc.) and coal-fired power stations (e.g., Poland, the GDR, etc.) show that these social factors must be taken into consideration already in the near-term.

R e f e r e n c e s

/1/ H a f e 1 e, W. et al.: Energy in a Finite World. Cambridge, 1981

/2/ H a f e l e, W.; 8 a r n e r t, H. ; M e s s n e r, S.;

S t r u b e g g e r, M.; An d e r e r, J.: Novel integrated energy systems: the case of zero emissions. In Sustainable Development of the Biosphere, W. C. ClarV. and R. E. Munn, eds. Cambridge University Press, 1986

/3/ H

a

f e 1 e, W.: Fast breeder futures af'ter Chernobyl. Ener- gy Exploration and Exploitation 1987, No. 5, pp. 415 - 434 /4/ H

a

f e 1 e, W.: Energy Systems in the 21st Century and the

Significant Role of Nuclear Energy. Paper presented at the 21st JAIF Annual Conference, April 13-15, 1988, Tokyo

/5/ H a r m s, A. A. :Preference Characterization of an Evolutio- nary Nuclear Energy Systematic: Paper presented at the Task Force Meeting on Technical and Economic-Ecological Aspects of Siting New Energy Technologies, October 12-14, 1988, So- pron, Hungary

/6/ Mak a r o v, A. A. et al.: Tendencies and Methods of Fore- casting Energy Development (Russ.). Energoatomizdat. Moscow 1987

171 Manne, A. S.; Sch r a t t e n ho 1 z e r , L. : The In- ternational Energy Workshop. A progress report. OPEC Review 12 (1988), No. 1, pp. 35 - 48

24

/8/ Ma r c h e t t i, C.: When will hydrogen come? International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 10 (1985), No. 4, pp. 215 - 219 /9/ 0 k or o k o v, V. R.: Tasks and problems of the optimizati-

on of energy systems development (Russ.) Izvestia AN SSR. Energetika i transport. 1985, No. 5

/10/ 0 k o r o k o v, V. R.: The integrated energy-chemical and energy-technological systems: the trend of developing power plants and industrial processes wit~ low-cost production and minimal emissions (Russ.). Proceedings of the 12th Interna- tional Conference on Industrial Energetics, Prague 1987 /11/ R o g n e r, H-H.: Long-term energy projections and novel

energy systems. In The Changing Carbon Cycle - A Global Ana- lysis, J. R. Trabalka and 0. E. Reichle, eds. Springer Ver- lag, New York, Berlin 1986

/12/ Var t a z a r ova, L. S.: The efficiency of energy (Russ.) Izvestia AN SSR, Energetika i transport, 1984, No. 3

/13/ WEC-World Energy Conference: Survey of Energy Resources.

Holywell Press Ltd., Oxford 1986

Received 1988.11.10.

Prof. Ing. Vasilij Romanovic 0 k or o k o v DrSc. International Inititute

for Applied Systems Analysis, A - 2361 Laxenburg

Austria