Regional Resource Management. Papers Presented at the Workshop on Regional Resource Management, Albena, Bulgaria, 1985

NOT FOR QUOTATION WITHOUT THE PERMISSION OF THE AUTHORS

REFIONAL RESOURCE AUNAGJEMENT

L

Kairiuksgis ^....

E d i t o r

P a p e r s p r e s e n t e d

a t

t h e Workshop on

REGIONAL

RTSOURCE MANAGEilEWT S e p t e m b e r 30-4 O c k b e r , 1 9 8 5 Albena, Bulgaria

July

1986 CP-86-24

Sponsored by:

The International Institute The National Committee f o r Applied

for

Applied Systems Analysis Systems Analysis and Management A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria S t a t e Committee f o r Science a n d

Technical P r o g r e s s

-

Sofia, Bulgaria a n d

Scientific a n d Coordination C e n t e r f o r Ecology and Environmental ProtectSon

Bulgarian Academy of S c i e n c e s Sofia, Bulgaria

Collcrborative h p e r s r e p o r t work which h a s not b e e n performed solely

at

t h e International Institute f o r Applied Systems Analysis a n d which h a s r e c e i v e d only limited review. Views o r opinions e x p r e s s e d h e r e i n do not necessarily r e p r e s e n t t h o s e of t h e Institute; its.Nationa1 Member Organizations, o r o t h e r organizations supporting t h e work.

INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS 2361 Laxenburg, Austria

FOREWORD

In a n innovative attempt

to

bring t o g e t h e r specialists in dendrochronology*, f o r e s t r y and regional planning, t h e International Institute f o r Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), t o g e t h e r with t h e Scientific and Coordination C e n t r e f o r Ecology and Environment Protection of t h e Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, hosted a Workshop on REGIONAL

RESOURCE

MAIYAGEICIENT which w a s held in Albena, Bulgaria (September 30

-

4 October, 1985).

The Workshop w a s a g r e a t success and i t s aims were fulfilled: f o r t h e f i r s t time, leading d e n d r o c h ~ o n o l o g i s t s met with regional planners, f o r e s t e r s and specialists in acid r a i n to a d d r e s s questions r e l a t e d t o long-range climatic background fluctuations as a p p a r e n t from dendrochronologies, t o long-range t r a n s p o r t of pollution and acid r a i n , and t o r e s o u r c e management policies and sustainability of regional systems. Some f o r t y participants from 15 e a s t e r n and western countries p a r t i c i p a t e d in a stimulating week of discussions; following t h e recommendations made

at

t h e Workshop, i t was decided t o publish t h e p a p e r s p r e s e n t e d by t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s and, in addition, t o write a s h o r t , concise volume in t h e IIASA Summary R e p o r t S e r i e s . The latter (forthcoming), should r e a c h a n informed, but not e x p e r t , audience in environmental science as w e l l as policy makers, and those who are not specialists in t h e d i f f e r e n t fields.

In a continuing e f f o r t in t h i s innovative field of science, a f u r t h e r meeting will b e held in Krakdw, Poland (June 2-6. 1986). The Task F o r c e Meeting METHOOOLOGY OF ~ O C ~ O N 0 L O Y : X E a s t / W e s t A p p r o a c h e s will again b e hosted by IIASA, t o g e t h e r with t h e Systems R e s e a r c h Institute of t h e Polish Academy of Sciences as w e l l as t h e Agricultural Academy in Krakdw. The ultimate goal of t h e Task F o r c e Meeting will b e

to

establish t h e c u r r e n t state-of-the-art of dendrochronology methodology, especially common a s p e c t s and differences in East/West a p p r o a c h e s and t o d r a f t a n international review on t h e rationalization of dendrochronological sampling and analysis of different methodologies.

R o b e r t E. Munn Leader

Environment Program

*Dendrochronology: t h e method o f d a t i n g e v e n t 8 and v a r i a t i o n 8 i n t h e environment b y a compara- t i v e s t u d y of tree r i n g s .

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I would like to e x p r e s s my s i n c e r e appreciation to all a u t h o r s and participants of this Workshop who devoted t h e i r e f f o r t and time t o this volume and t o continuing r e s e a r c h in this field of science. I would also like to thank o u r gracious hosts in Bulgaria f o r t h e kind hospitality extended to u s during o u r visit in Albena and f o r making this meeting a v e r y successful and fruitful experience.

Academician Leonardas Kairiukstis Deputy Leader

Environment Program

CONTENTS

VOLUME I

1.

AN

APPROACH TO ENVIRONMENTALLY-BALANCED REGIONAL MANAGENCENT -

L.A. K a t r i u k s t i s

2.

ABOUT THE METHODOLOGY OF C O W L E X ECOLOGICAL TERRITORIAL MANAGEMENT -

^{S. Nedialkou}

3. FACTORS BEABMG AN IHPACT ON REGIONAL RESOURCES JMNAGEMENT

3.1 LONGRANGE E N Y E R O ~ N T A L BACKGROUND FLUCTUA- TIONS AS THESE APPEAR FROM DENDROINDICATIONS:

HISTORICAL AND PRESENT FLUCTUATIONS

3.1.1 T e m p e r a t u r e Fluctuations in W e s t e r n E u r o p e During

the

L a s t 1000 Y e a r s

as

D e r i v e d f r o m T r e e

Eings and

O t h e r Proxy

Indicators

-

D. Eckstein

3.1.2 N a t u r a l Fluctuations o f C l i m a t e

in the

E a s t e r n R e g i o n s o f

the

USSR

based on

Tree-Ring

Series

-

S.C. Shiyatou a n d KS. Mazepa

47

3.1.3 C l i m a t i c Fluctuations in N o r d e n

as

Derived f r o m T r e e

Rings and Other Proxy

D a t a -

M. Eronen. P. Zetterberg, a n d P. Huttunan

75

3.1.4 M e t h o d o l o g i c a l Aspects o f D e n d r o c h r o n o l o g i c a l

Prognostics

- ^T.

Bituinskas

3.1.5 T r e e Rings as Indicators f o r Normal

and Anthropo-

genic E n v i r o n m e n t a l C h a n g e s - ^F.

Schweingruber

123 3.1.8 D e n d r o s c a l e a o f N o r t h e r n

Ireland and

T h e i r

L i m i t a t i o n s f o r

the

R e c o n s t r u c t i o n of Past Environments -

Mt2.L. Bcrillie

3.1.7 N a t u r a l

and Anthropogenic

Fluctuations o f

C e n t r a l E u r o p e a n R i v e r

D y n a m i a

B a s e d

on

T r e e

Ring D a t a . Present to 9000 BC -

B. Becker

155 3.1.8 _Research

Aspecta

o f T r e e s

and the

E n v i r o n m e n t -

J. n e t c h e r

159

3.1.9

Fluctuations

o f

the

R a d i a l T r e e I n c r e m e n t

and

T h e i r A p p l i c a t i o n f o r

Prediction

o f C l i m a t i c B a c k g r o u n d C h a n g e a b i l i t y -

L.A. K a i r i u k s t i s a n d J. Dubinskaite

-

^vii

-

3.2 LONG-RANGE TRANSPORT OF POLLUTION AND ACID

RAIN

3.2.1 Acid Rain

in

E u r o p e -

^{A n}

E n e r g y - E n v i r o n m e n t a l

I m p a c t S t u d y -

L. Hordijk

3.2.2

Integrated

Assesmnenta o f Acid D e p o s i t i o n in

the

USA -

E.S. R u b i n , R.J. Marnicio, M.J. Small a n d M. H s n r i o n

3.2.3 A c i d

Precipitation in the

R i l a M o u n t a i n -

M. Argirova, I. Rasv, L. S s m s r d j i s u a , G. Stmsonou, 2. B r a t a n o u a a n d L. L a t i n o u

3.2.4 D e n d r o c h r o n o l o g i c a l M e t h o d s to E s t a b l i s h

the Dynauuica

o f

Heavy

M e t a l s A c c u m u l a t i o n

in

T r e e s -

S. Nsdjalkov,

K

Basua, S. B r a t a n o u a

4. RESOURCE JILANAGE'HENT AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT 4.1 YODELING ECONOMIC-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS

4.1.1 Y o d e l i n g f o r E n v i r o n m e n t a l

and

R e s o u r c e M a n a g e m e n t -

^L.C.

^Braat

a n d WJ.J. v a n L i s r o p

4.1.2

Organisation

f o r R e g i o n a l R e s o u r c e s

M a n a g e m e n t -

^{R. Espejo}

4.1.3

Regionalization

o f E c o l o g i c a l

Reproduction P r o b g q ? and

E n v i r o n m e n t a l

Strategies

-

A. h r a c a s a n d A.K R u t k a u s k a s

4.1.4

Sustainable

C o a s t a l Resources

and

E n v i r o n m e n t a l Management f o r

Seto-Inland

Sea Area

in Japan

-

S. I k e d a

309

4.1.5

Principles

of Co-

Ordinat- the

T e c h n o l o g i c a l - E c o l o g i c a l E n v i r o n m e n t a l Y o d e l o f

a

Region

with the

C h o i c e o f Its E c o n o m i c D e v e l o p m e n t -

A.M. K u r n o s s o ~

4.1.6 R e g i o n a l Besources M a n a g e m e n t - S o m e S w e d i s h

E x p e r i e n c e s - ^U.

S u e d i n

349

4.1.7 Regional M a n a g e m e n t o f N a t u r a l R e s o u r c e s in

the

E s t o n i a n S S R - ^H

L u i k

4.1.8 Regional-Company A p p r o a c h to

Strategic

Economical- E c o l o g i c a l

Policy

-

A. Kochstkou

365 4.1.9 A C a s e o f E n e r g y - R e l a t e d Development

in an Agri-

cultural Region

-

J. W. O w s i n s k i a n d K. Holubowicz

377

-

^viii

-

4.2

ENVIKONHENTAL MPACT ASSESSMENT AND FOREST RESOURCE

W A G E M E N T

397

4.2.1 Science in

E n v i r o n m e n t a l I m p a c t

Assessment and

N a t u r a l R e s o u r c e M a n a g e m e n t

in

C a n a d a -

P. D u i n k e r 399

4.2.2

M o n i t o r i n g o f F o r e s t R e s o u r c e 3

and

Forest Damages

in

A u s t r i a - ^K

J o h a n n

4.2.3

Dynamic

Geographical Paps

A p p l i e d to Forest D i e O f f - ^W-D.

C r o s s m a n n

4.2.4

Structural C h a n g e o f

the

F o r e s t Sector

as a

C o n s e q u e n c e o f Forest D i e B a c k - Illustrated with

a

S w e d i s h E x a m p l e -

L. L z n n s t e d t

4.2.5

M o d e l i n g Rewurce

Dynamiu and

F o r e s t D i e O f f -

hi. W o u , G. R m i i o u a n d C. B o j i n o u 477 4.2.6

S u c c d o n . P r o d u c t i v i t y

and

S t a b i l i t y o f

N a t u r a l

and

A r t i f i c i a l Forest E c o s y s t e m s -

H.

T h o m a s i u s

4.2.7

U t i l i z a t i o n of

Forest

R e s o u r c e s

and

E n v i r o n m e n t a l M a n a g e m e n t

Strategies in

Lithuanian

SSR

-

L.A. K a i r i u k s t i s , S. Mizaras, L. Baiceuic a n d R. D e i t u u a s

5.

S - -

L. K a i r i u k s t i s a n d R. Espejo

APPENDIXI LIST OF PARTICIPANTS

1.

AN APPROACH TO ENVIRONMENTALLY-BALANCED REGIONAL MANAGEMENT

Leonardas KairiuLstis

Deputy Leader, Environment Program International Institute for Applied

Systems Analysis

2361 Laxenburg, Austria

Preface

This p a p e r discusses t h e approach

to

sustainability of t h e biosphere subsys- tems. The problems

to

be solved and t h e systems in which they interact are analyzed on t h e local, regional (national), zonal and global levels. In o r d e r

to

rniti- gate t h e confrontation between t h e socio-economic development and t h e environ- ment, an integrative methodological approach has been suggested. This .approach is based on systems analysis of rational use and reproduction of natural resources in combination with

a

purposeful formation of a n optimal environment. The example of t h e Lithuanian SSR has been used for this purpose.

INTRODUCTION

Acceleration of scientific and technological progress and of industrial, metropolitan and agricultural development leads

to

man's confrontation with

nature.

The influence of man changes t h e equilibrium of

nature

processes which leads

to

unpredictable consequences. Generally, these are negative, such

as

desertification,

water

and atmospheric pollution, ^' increase in soil acidity

or

salinity, destruction of

forests

and s e v e r e exhaustion of

natural

resources, impacts on human health and genetic mutations

in

plants and animals. This primarily occurs

at

t h e local and regional levels, sometimes leads

to

unpredictable negative consequences f o r the s e p a r a t e regions, and may

also

lead

to

negative consequences f o r t h e e n t i r e biosphere.

The increasing

scale

and significance of man's r o l e

as

a n agent of global change was forcefully artioulated between t h e

t w o

World

Wars

by a remarkable group of scholars (Clark and Holling. 1985). These included t h e French theologian and paieontologist, P i e r r e Teilhard d e Chardin, t h e Austrian-born American biophysicist, Alfred J. Lotka, and above all, t h e Russian mineralogist, Vladimir Ivanovich Vernadsky. Vernadsky (1926) f i r s t formulated t h e concept of t h e biosphere

as

the only t e r r e s t r i a l envelope in which life can exist. In Vernadsky's opinion t h e

m o s t

significant

aspect

of man's development

w a s

not his technology p e r

se

but r a t h e r the sense of global knowledge and communication engendered by t h a t technology. He portrayed this "noosphere"

or

realm of thought

as a

new geological phenomenon on

our

planet. Vernadsky's main concept

w a s

strongly developed by Soviet Academician Vladimir Nikolajevich Suckachev (1964)

as a

complete science of biogeocenology

or

t h e science of ecosystems.

Man's role

as

a n agent of global change i s associated with t h e emergence of a n increasingly interdependent world economic system (Richards, 1985). Following t h e second World War, expanding industrial and agricultural development

increasingly intensified t h e global economic interdependence among nations. I t also began to introduce issues of ecological and geophysical interdependence between countries. This has led t o some significant achievements in monitoring, in defining t h e issues in scientific and technical terms, in raising public awareness, and in institutional and policy action, on t h e national and international level.

A t

t h e

s a m e

time, r e s e a r c h on t h e biosphere

is

characterized by an increasing

scale

and complexity of problems. Examples

are

t h e SCOPE program on t h e major biogeochemical cycles, t h e ICSU exploration of a n international geosphere- biosphere program, NASA's work on global habitability, t h e

WMO's

World Climate Programme, UNESCO's Man and t h e Biosphere Programme, and UNEP's

report

on t h e World Environment

1972-82.

Furthermore, t h e r e

is

IUCN's World Conservation Strategy, t h e OECD's work on economic and ecological interdependence, and t h e WRI's Symposium on The Global Possible.

A t

t h e International Institute f o r Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) t h e r e

are

many subjects under investigation, such

as

Acid Rain, Climate Impacts, Design of Resource and Environmental Policies, Population Aging and Changing Lifestyles which a r e deeply concerned with t h e sustainability of regional development and development of t h e biosphere a s a whole*. Most of this investigation

is

characterized by

a

considerable uncertainty in initial empirical information,

a

large number of input variables which

are

collected in different ways (official statistics, experts' estimates, indirect observation, etc.) and have different s t r u c t u r e s (qualitative, quantitative) and most of which can hardly be forecast.

Nevertheless, t h e preliminary analysis

of

t h e investigations on t h e biosphere shows that:

t h e cumulative impact of industrial. agricultural, and

social

development on t h e environment has approached

a

level where

it

is dangerous f o r particular regions and can be dangerous f o r t h e biosphere

as

a whole;

b e t t e r integrative understanding by international organizations. governments, and t h e scientific community

is

now urgently required to plan effective interventions t h a t will bring t h e above situation under control;

t h e demand f o r help in creating such integrative understanding

is

high but i t is not being m e t by present isolated r e s e a r c h activities around t h e world;

I t

is

t h e r e f o r e very important in t h e biosphere studies at IIASA to integrate subjects already being investigated and t o focus new investigation on a n interconnected, manageable number of key issues which cover t h e processes that

affect

life on o u r planet and t h e r o l e of life itself in t h e evolution

of

o u r present environment.

The standard agenda of investigations, as

it

concerns t h e sustainability

of

development, includes at

least

t h r e e interrelated groups of issues: natural resources, environmental pollution and human settlement issues.

Key natural resources issues include:

1.

Depletion of forests, particularly tropical forests;

2.

Loss of genetic resources;

3.

Loss of cropland, soil erosion, and desertification;

4.

Depletion and degradation of groundwater resources;

5.

Energy, including fuelwood.

*In e a r l y 1985 wfthin t h e Environmental P o l i c i e s Program a t IIASA a s p e c i a l "Ecologically Sustainable Development of t h e Biosphere" p r o j e c t w a s created.

Key environmental pollution issues include:

1. C02, 03,

trace

gases,

etc.

and climatic change;

2. Air pollution, including acid rain;

3. Water pollution, including coastal and marine waters;

4. Soil pollution;

5. Hazardous wastes.

Key human settlements issues include:

1. Land use and tenure;

2. Shelter;

3. Water supply. sanitation. and recreation;

4. Social, education, and o t h e r services;

5. Management of very rapid urban growth.

THE HIERARCHY OF PROBLEMS TO BE SOLVED AND THE SCALE OF SYSTEMS

M

WHICH

THEY

_INTERACT

The problems

to

b e solved can b e divided into groups of environmental development concerns,

as

suggested by Clark and Holling (1985). Nevertheless, each group of problems i n t e r a c t s on a different s p a c e and time scale, and i s involved in different systems. Therefore, I suggest t h a t t h e problems t h a t concern each generation should b e analyzed within t h e systems in which they interact,

as

follows:

The first group comprises small-scale problems concerning Locd environmentd systems o n the landscape LaveL. Such problems

me:

local a i r o r

water

pollution, soil erosion by

water or

wind, sustainability of agricultural crops, forest

or

fish die-off due

to

pollution,

etc.

These problems mostly affect t h e social w e l l being of people and involve only c e r t a i n branahes of t h e economy and

some

management bodies. They have proved

to

b e largely controllable. Moreover, they can b e analyzed easily with t h e use of quantitative models. However, local control (e.g., construction of a very

tall

chimney, cultivation of field protective

forest

belts, etc.) sometimes contributes

to

a regional problem.

The second group includes t h e larger-scale problems of economic- environmentd systems on the regional or national LeveL. The problems

are:

regional

resources

utilization. industrial and agricultural development, assessment of t h e impact of human activities on t h e environment, environmentally balanced sustainable regional development strategies. These deeply concern t h e socio-economic development and living conditions of human populations-ethnic groups in c e r t a i n regions o r nations. Despite t h e complexity, methods f o r solving t h e s e problems c a n be identified on t h e basis of systems analysis by using complete and incomplete models and choosing a p p r o p r i a t e regional development strategies. Frequently, however, t h e conflict between short-term economic benefits and long-term ecological damage is difficult

to

resolve.

The third group includes large-scale problems of macro-systems on the transregionaL, zonal or continental Level. The problems are: long-distance transportation of a i r pollutants, acid rain, long-distance

water

t r a n s f e r (between basins), l a r g e international rivers. depletion of tropical forests, loss of genetic resources, desertification, shifts of agricultural and f o r e s t

productivity onto marginal a r e a s due

to

climatic changes, depletion of living marine resources,

etc.

These problems have shown themselves to b e more difficult t o solve partly because t h e costs of reversing t h e trends in some cases are prohibitive. Moreover, they span s o many political s p h e r e s t h a t t h e authority and understanding required f o r concerted action a r e often lacking.

The fourth group consists of even larger-scale problems directly concerned with t h e development of the biosphere o n a global scale. Such problems a r e : climatic background fluctuations due t o sun-earth relations, biogeochemical cycles and evolution leading

to

a dynamic exchange of chemical constituents among t h e oceans, t h e atmosphere and t e r r e s t r i a l biosphere, biogeochemical cycles of soils, global economic-industrial growth, energy consumption and emissions into t h e atmosphere of significant amounts of active constituents, COZ, 03,

trace

gases, etc., anthropogenic changes in t h e atmosphere, t h e i r climatic and economic consequences, pollution levels in t h e oceans and t h e i r ecological consequences, anthropogenically induced global biospheric change and transition t o t h e noosphere. If these extremely complex problems can b e managed a t

all,

i t is only with a commitment of resources, and a consistency of purpose t h a t transcend normal cycles and boundaries of scientific r e s e a r c h and political action. Nevertheless, t h e r e is no o t h e r alternative but

to

t r y t o formulate t h e approach and find tools (a system of models) with which i t would b e possible t o describe t h e basic properties of t h e dynamics of t h e biosphere which could s e r v e as a point of d e p a r t u r e in t h e e f f o r t s made t o understand evolutionary trends and biogeocenotic processes in t h e world and t o react t o them e i t h e r by adaptation o r confrontation.

APPROACH TO THE SUSTAINABILITY OF THE BIOSPHERE

When seeking t h e sustainability of t h e biosphere, t h e problems discussed above, from o u r point of view and in terms of t h e c u r r e n t possibilities f o r IIASA, can be solved on f o u r levels

-

global, zonal (continental), regional and local.

An Analysia of

h e a

on

a

Global Level

An analysis of t h e problems t h a t arise and change course on t h e global scale can b e made outside IIASA in highly specialized institutions in both Eastern and Western countries. The c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of t h e issues of global change can include:

climatic background fluctuations due

to

sun-earth relations;

analysis of changes occurring in different geophysical media and t h e i r impact on biosphere sustainability;

analysis of anthropogenic changes in t h e atmosphere and t h e i r ecological consequences;

analysis of pollution levels in t h e oceans and t h e i r ecological consequences;

analysis of possible anthropogenic changes in climate and t h e i r impacts on t h e sustainable development of t h e biosphere; and

modeling t h e naturally and anthropogenically induced changes in t h e biosphere in seeking

to

find ways f o r transitions t o t h e noonsphere.

Our understanding of global changes c a n b e integrated on t h e basis of t h e above-mentioned analysis and simulation of general l a w s governing t h e biosphere (Moiseev

et

all 1984). The revealed aggregate impact of global changes will b e taken as a n input f o r proposals of regional and local action t o redevelop t h e biosphere.

Analysis of

Issues

on the Zonal or Continental

Level

Some issues which characterize environmental changes on the zonal o r continental level

are

already being studied a t IIASA (e.g., Acid Rain,

C l i m a t e

Impacts) and appropriate

m o d e l s

and software

are

being prepared (Alcamo et al, 1984) (Parry, Carter, 1984). Other problems must be solved using

a

collaborative network of organizations. The environmental changes on

t h e

zonal and continental level

which

have an impact on the biosphere a s

w e l l as

on regional and local systems, can be characterized

as

follows:

analysis of long-distance transportation of

air

pollutants and acid rain;

analysis of water transfers from one basin t o another; international rivers;

analysis of depletion of tropical forests and desertification with attendant climatic changes;

analysis of depletion of living marine resources.

The revealed negative impact of the factors mentioned above must b e transformed t o systems of a lower level in o r d e r that counteractive policies may be worked out to deal with them.

Analysis of

Issues

on

the

Regional Level

The r e s e a r c h on Ecologically Sustainable/Unsustainable Regional Development concentrates on t h e alternatives of regional resource utilization, industrial and agricultural development, as

w e l l as

the development of o t h e r economic branches, and t h e assessment of t h e impact of human activities on t h e environment. The main goals of t h e research are t h e development of concepts, tools, methods, and software f o r regional economic and environmental development analysis and selection of b e t t e r management strategies while taking into consideration the sustainability of t h e regional system in long-range dynamics.

Such

a

strategy has to be worked out on

a

multidisciplinary basis and must involve the experience and joint efforts of economists, biologists, ecologists, mathematicians, statisticians, hydrologists, and specialists in agriculture, forestry, demography, and health. In o t h e r words, the problems to be solved belong to t h e sphere of applied systems analysis.

To achieve the goals mentioned above, the activities should include t h e preparation of concepts and t h e c o r e of t h e

m o d e l

system, including supporting

m o d e l s

to describe t h e links between industrial and agricultural development, utilization of natural resources, changes in t h e environment, t h e influence of these changes on recipients, including man, and t h e adverse influences on

t h e

socioeconomic development of society. There

are

some integrated regional

m o d e l s

which have already been developed (Brauwer, Hettling, Hordijk, 1983). The cycle

is

modeled as follows: economy changes t h e environment (air and water pollution, soil erosion, destruction of forest ecosystems, etc.),

^{t h e}

changed environment influences natural resources, produotion means and people, and through this by t h e reversible link

it

influences t h e economy. The

m o d e l

system (Figure 1 ) consists of the following blocks: information data bank, economy, categorization of

territories

into influenced zones, ecological evaluation models, determination of changes in recipients' state, economic evaluation of damage, and environmental quality regulation.

The

territory

of t h e region, chosen in t h e form of

case

studies,

is

divided into

squares. For every square,

t h e

data regarding its geographic position, s t r u c t u r e

of t h e farm lands, environment and economic activity a r e determined. The

information is stored in

a

regional (national) data bank from whence t h e primary

information f o r modelling

is

drawn.

The main items of the economic block a r e :

to

balance t h e production and utilization between branches;

to

determine t h e indices of economic activity f o r t h e region a s a whole and separately f o r t h e main land users;

to characterize t h e activity of natural resources reproduction;

to

determine t h e influence of economic activity on t h e environment; and,

to

balance t h e utilization of natural resources.

The following kinds of influence on t h e environment are included in t h e economic block :

emissions of toxic substances into t h e atmosphere including those from industrial activities and motorized vehicles;

water pollution; and soil pollution.

In t h e block of categorization of t e r r i t o r i e s into influenced districts, t h e following zones

are

distinguished:

a i r pollution by industrial emissions and motorized vehicles;

water pollution; and

utilization of polluted water.

The block of ecological evaluation of t h e influence of economic activity on t h e environment is determined

to

characterize the level of a i r , water, soil and vegetation pollution and t h e level of soil erosion. It i s worked out on t h e basis of t h e following models: model f o r evaluation of chemical runoff and soil erosion in agricultural farmland (Knisel

et

al, 1980) which i s affected by various management systems

(CREAMS);

model of environmental factor dynamics (Krutko

et

al, 1982);

model of acid rain (Alcamo

et

all 1984) and soil acidity (AR).

In t h e block of recipients t h e i r

state

i s determined under t h e influence of environmental changes. The main kinds of recipients a r e as follows: quality of food stuffs, genetic changes in animals,

state

of health f o r humans, c r o p capacity, productivity of natural resources (forests,

water

basins), condition of recreational resources, and main productivity funds.

On t h e basis of t h e changes of recipients, t h e economic evaluation of damage i s made, which i s caused by environmental pollution and which in turn affects the national economy. By t h e reversible link this damage influences t h e economy and negatively affects i t s future development.

The block of environmental quality regulation deals with t h e simulation of means

to

improve environmental quality. The main means a r e a s follows: changes in t h e s t r u c t u r e of t h e industry; changes in t h e

structure

of land utilization, a i r and

water

purification; and introduction of technologies with less waste materials.

Besides, t h e negative influence on

some

recipients can be decreased by means of physical planning and functional redistribution of t h e regional t e r r i t o r y , f o r example, by relocating food crops, recreational a r e a s , settlements, etc., away from strongly polluted zones (Kairiukstis, 1982).

The kind of input-output model mentioned above leads

to

g r e a t simplifications and often fails

to

reproduce non-linear interactions. Nevertheless, t h e model system provides t h e management bodies (planning) of t h e zone o r t h e region with t h e conditional optimal scenario of natural resources utilization and environment formation of a region, and also with various alternatives. This scenario forwards t h e decisions taken

to

t h e management bodies (ministries, departments o r

complexes). By means of t h e i r economic systems t h e l a t t e r influence t h e natural resources and environment on t h e specific t e r r i t o r y . The annual o r five-year results of such activity together with t h e volume of industrial production

are

received through information channels and comprised in t h e

m o d e l s

system. This makes

it

possible to c o r r e c t the annual and five-year scenarios of natural resources utilization and environment formation.

Analpis of

Issaea

on the Local Level

The activities on Ecologically Sustainable/Unsustainable Regional Development a r e supported by detailed local studies on t h e landscape level.

A s

mentioned above, regional economic-environmental

m o d e l s

evaluate t h e ecological consequences of economic development and

facilitate a

determination of landscape redistribution according to function; (e.g ., exploitable forests, agricultural, recreational.

water-soil

protected zones, urbanized territories, etc.). For t h e main branches experiencing t h e m o s t dangerous environmental impacts from t h e o t h e r economic branches

of

t h e region, t h e following tasks are to b e solved:

agricultural problems regarding sustainability, pollution impact, and agricultural practices t h a t threaten o t h e r objectives in land use: What are t h e i r causes, which counteractive policies

are

possible, how can t h e i r effectiveness be continuously monitored?

forest

die-off due t o pollutants: What are its causes, which counteractive policies

are

available, how can t h e i r effectiveness be continuously monitored?

water management problems regarding sustainability of use, and pollution impacts t h a t threaten o t h e r objectives in land use: What

are

t h e i r causes, which counteractive policies are possible, how can t h e i r effectiveness be continuously monitored?

recreational

areas

and genetic resources, in terms of sustainability of use, pollution impacts: Which counteractive policies

are

possible, how can t h e i r effectiveness b e continuously monitored?

urbanized territories, in t e r m s of pollution impacts t h a t threaten human health and o t h e r objectives in land use:

What are

t h e i r causes, which counteractive policies

are

possible, how can t h e i r effectiveness b e continuously monitored?

For

the

analysis of t h e above-mentioned s e p a r a t e branches of t h e regional economy adequate models should b e used. They should include

a

simplified regional interbranch economic development

m o d e l

and

a

more detailed

territorial m o d e l .

For example, in t h e detailed

m o d e l

of t h e

forest

sector,

as a

branch of t h e economy t h e f o r e s t resources are analyzed with demand; when

there is

a shortage of forests to cover demand measures must be taken to m e e t this demand. When t h e r e is no opportunity t o satisfy t h e requirements, t h e s t r u c t u r e of production in t h e interbranch

m o d e l is

altered. The following submodels a r e used in t h e forest s e c t o r

model:

1.

t h e submodel of

forest

biocenose (for t h e analysis of t h e sustainability of t h e f o r e s t system and t h e

forest

front of influence upon t h e environment);

2. t h e submodel

for

analyzing t h e specialized

sectors

of f o r e s t growth:

industrial, agroprotective, recreational etc. (Kairiukstis, 1981).

3.

t h e submodel f o r analyzing t h e renewal

of

forest resources;

4.

t h e submodel f o r analyzing forest utilization (Deltuvas, 1982);

5. t h e submodel for t h e analysis of demand f o r forest products; and,

6.

t h e wood processing submodel.

In addition, f o r e s t die-off is currently being analyzed

at

IIASA with t h e help of

a

model (POLLAPSE) on pollution and forest collapse (Grossmann, 1984).

For t h e above-mentioned specific branches of t h e regional economy, t h e anticipated r e s u l t s (when t h e s e problems

are

solved) will b e as follows:

an indication as

to

which counteractive policies f o r agricultural crops, forest die-off,

water

quality, recreational a r e a s , and urbanized t e r r i t o r i e s

are

best in

a

specific a r e a ,

as

far

as

concerns sustainability of t h e s e p a r a t e branches and sustainability of regional development;

information on which counteractive policies are effective and which will lead

to

financial loss;

a new tool f o r much b e t t e r management of agricultural and f o r e s t land use.

water

basins, recreational a r e a s , urbanized t e r r i t o r i e s , o t h e r resources.

etc.

help

to

d i r e c t and synthesize r e s e a r c h on t h e above-mentioned problems concerning t h e sustainability of local and regional systems development;

assistance in establishing a d a t a bank and a n environmental monitoring system on t h e regional level.

GENERAL APPROACH TO THE METHODOLOGY

The complexity of t h e above-mentioned problems and systems in which they commonly i n t e r a c t constitutes t h e subject of investigation on

sustainable/unsustainable

regional development

as

w e l l

as

s u s t a i ~ b l e / u n s u s t a i m b l e development of t h e biosphere

as

a whole.

The systems comprising t h e global biosphere differ greatly in space, time and complexity. They

are

open. and essentially i n t e r a c t with t h e ecological and socioeconomic environment. The hierarchical n a t u r e of systems is v e r y complicated, with cooperation and conflicts between different subsystems.

Possibilities

to

control t h e subjects under investigation. on large-scale systems in particular,

are

v e r y limitad. The higher t h e level of t h e hierarchy, t h e f e w e r t h e possibilities

to

experiment with t h e subsystem. Therefore, i t is necessary

to

use an integrative approach

to

elaborate

a

s t r a t e g y of systems management (control) in

a

united. hierarchical

structure

during t h e process of receiving and collecting data.

The systems under consideration have many facets, each of whioh can

m o s t

adequately b e addressed with

a

different

set

of tools. That is t h e reason why

a

"multifaceted" hierarchical approach c a n b e used. A t IIASA t h i s approach has been suggested and widely used by W.D. Grossmann (1984) f o r small-scale local systems analysis, in c o n t r a s t

to

large-scale models which

were

strongly criticized previously (Lee, 1973). W e developed t h e former approach f o r t h e analysis of problems and systems r e l a t e d

to

t h e sustainability of t h e biosphere.

Complementarily, t h e main scheme

w a s

extended

to

f o u r levels of problems and factors

to

b e analyzed, methods

to

b e adopted. as w e l l as systems

to

b e covered.

Using this approach,

w e

intend

to

investigate interrelated local, regional, zonal and global systems, according

to

t h e strength of t h e impact felt on each o t h e r . The zonal system among them is t h e turning point. I t is expressed in

a

maximum of outside environmental cross-action and a minimum of management cross-action (Figure 2). For

m o s t

of t h e problems discussed above this approach permitted t h e use of dynamic models in combination with a geographical information system and t h e generation of a time s e r i e s of highly precise geographic maps.

Nevertheless, in many

cases

(particularly in analyzing complex regional socio-economic and environmental systems) i t i s not realistic

to

use formal methods and mathematical models. Such models are usually based on t h e assumption t h a t

THE HIERARCHY OF BIOSPHERE SYSTEMS: PROBLEMS TO BE SOLVED AND METHODS TO BE USED No decision systems.

the models describe these systems exactly and sufficiently. However, i t is not always possible

to

build mathematical models with t h e required p r o p e r t i e s and t h e user must invest much e f f o r t in verifying t h e practical applicability of t h e solutions obtained by standard schemes. For these cases

m o r e

practical environmental impact assessments and socio-economic methods, developed by R. E.

Munn (1979) as well as incomplete models, can be used (Umnov, 1985).

Using both approaches, a n analysis of t h e main constituents of t h e global biosphere and verification of t h e theoretical hypothesis about possible changes will illustrate what t h e

m o s t

serious constraints a r e f o r t h e f u t u r e sustainable development of lower scale, i-e., zonal, regional and local systems. On t h e o t h e r hand, analysis of local and highly aggregated regional systems will r e v e a l t h e f a c t o r s which have negative o r positive impacts on t h e sustainability of t h e systems of a higher level.

L e t us consider ap approach

to

environmentally balanced regional development using t h e example of t h e Lithuanian SSR.

THE

APPROACH TO SUSTBMABLE REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT

IN THE

LITHUANIAN SSR

The Lithuanian SSR i s one of 1 5 republics of t h e Soviet Union with 3.6 million inhabitants livin in a n area of 6.5 million hectares, i.e., t h e a v e r a g e population density is 55 km

9 .

In t h e last few decades industry as well as agriculture h a s been highly developed. The a v e r a g e yearly c r o p production of c e r e a l s f o r t h e last five y e a r s was between 2.5

-

3.0 tons/ha., for

m e a t

0.13 tons/ha., and dairy products 3.6 tons/animal.

The Lithuanian Republio i s a highly cultivated p a r t of t h e USSR. Land reclamation by closed drainage

w a s

c a r r i e d out on 60% of t h e area of collective farms. Extensive road networks

w e r e

established. Two l a r g e (approx. 400-500,000 inhabitants) and 1 2 small towns (about 100,000 inhabitants) w e r e developed.

In Lithuania, traditionally developed complex silviculture i s practiced (the average area of forest p r e s e r v e i s 3,000 ha., f o r e s t husbandry

-

30,000 ha., with one highly educated specialist each p e r 1,000 ha.). The forests constitute 1.8 million ha. (27.6%) of t h e

total

land surface. This means t h a t approximately 75% of t h e demand f o r wood is

met.

There is a well organized n a t u r e conservation service in Lithuania. In addition, Lithuania is well-known for s p o r t hunting and tourism.

Despite g r e a t efforts by t h e S t a t e f o r n a t u r e conservation, natural r e s o u r c e utilization and technogenic use of t h e land have

a

negative impact on t h e environment.

Negative C o n s e q u e n c e s o f Human A c t i v i t i e s

During

T e c h n o g e n i c R e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f the Landscape.

Industrial growth, increased motorization, land reclamation, and intense agricultural activities have destroyed t h e natural landscape. Extensive land use h a s caused deterioration of t h e soil and

water.

Investigations show t h a t land reclamation and cultivation, as well

as

the intensive use of pesticides sharply diminish t h e variety of soil fauna (Atlavinyte, 1978 and Eitmanaviciute, 1982).

Hydrophilic species of worms disappear, and o t h e r species have diminished fivefold. The variety of ornithofauna also suffers greatly. Insectivorous birds (e.g, thrushes and finches) have been greatly decimated because they use s m a l l field bushes f o r reproduction r a t h e r than forests. The disappearance of f o r e s t s and bushes inside a r a b l e lands reveals t h e negative consequence of s u r f a c e

water

runoff. The a r a b l e lands in t h e Aukstaiciu and Zemaiciu uplands especially s u f f e r from erosion. Using t h e CREAMS model (which w a s adapted

at

IIASA), model calculations of runoff, amount of

water

evaporation and deep percolation

were

c a r r i e d out f o r t h e hilly Utena region with r e g a r d t o soil types, variety of forms of landscape. Model calculations show t h a t in 1972-1980 runoff and deep percolation correspond

to

about one-third o r 204 mm precipitation p e r annum. This determines soil erosion processes which in conformity with t h e d e g r e e of steepness, mechanical particles specification and c r o p s grown t h e r e c a n form 100 tons/ha. of d r i f t s in t h e nine-year period (Kairiukstis and Golubev, 1982). The aforementioned erosion processes do not happen on slopes with belts of f o r e s t cover.

The increase of t h e plain field area causes wind erosion and depletion of soil fertility. I t is a special c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of t h e light soils. For example, in Lithuania, such

areas

c o v e r about 190,000 ha. The investigations c a r r i e d out (Pauliukevicius, 1982) show that t h e annual runoff washes away from e v e r y ha. of a r a b l e land 50-250 kg of chemicals dissolved in t h e

water.

Every y e a r t h e Nemunas r i v e r c a r r i e s away about 0.5 million tons of d r i f t s into t h e Kursiu Marios Lagoon. I t i s partially f o r this reason, as w e l l

as

due

to

a s c a r c i t y of sewage treatment plants in l a r g e

t o w n s

and industrial centres, t h a t

water

pollution h a s not been sufficiently reduced.

West winds being predominant, t h e industrial pollutants from Western and Middle Europe, England and Scandinavia are transported

to

Lithuania. Acid rain, oxidized deposits. harmful gases, and carcinogenic substances r e a c h t h e Lithuanian territory in 1-2 days. They cause acidification of soils,

water

pollution and deterioration of t h e f o r e s t ecosystems. Against t h e background of the whole atmospheric pollution, t h e zones of high local pollution around industrial c e n t r e s like Jonava, Mazeikiai and Keadainiai prove

to

b e dangerous

to

t h e f o r e s t vegetation, which in its t u r n i s t h e index of t h e conditions f o r human existence.

Under t h e impact of emission processes, l i t t e r , soil and

water

r e s e r v o i r s accumulate l a r g e quantities of dust, fluorine, nitrates. ammonia, chlorite sulphates, phosphates, potassium and o t h e r harmful compounds (Vaicys, 1982).

Within

a

radius of 3-5 km from t h e s o u r c e of pollution, as shown in t h e d a t a of t h e Lithuanian Institute of Forestry, coniferous f o r e s t s wither. In t h e places more

remote

f r o m t h e pollution s o u r c e s under t h e influence of emissions, changes of morphological, physiological, chemical and species composition of vegetation t a k e place. In these a r e a s , t h e increment of coniferous f o r e s t s i s 30-50% and deciduousness 20-30% less in comparison with non- affected areas. The white fungus disease which a f f e c t s needles, leaves, branches and trunks i s widely prevalent. Cancer of l a r c h and pine-tree s p r o u t s is especially dangerous.

Increased environmental pollution increases mutagenesis. I t has become

a

c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of modern civilization. Among some f o u r million pollutants circulating in t h e biosphere, in t h e Baltic region alone w e found about 300 pollutants bearing mutagenic effects. They expose t h e genetic stability of species t o g r e a t danger. Geneticians of t h e Vilnius S t a t e University (Lekevicius, 1980) determined that in t h e 3-8 km radius of t h e Mazeikiai oil-refining plant t h e frequency of point mutations in field vole (Microtus arvalis) increases 1 0 times.

The s a m e phenomena are observed on non-irrigated meadows with

a

high usage of mineral fertilizers. I t i s notable t h a t t h e field vole i s a n example of chemical pollutants on animal species and possible impacts on

man.

In many countries t h e r e is now sufficient d a t a t o prove t h a t human beings who come in close contact with chemicals such

as

mercury. and with plastics such

as

polyvinylchloride and who live in

a

polluted environment, s u f f e r from chromosomal a b e r r a t i o n s causing r e t a r d e d

or

handicapped offspring.

A t

t h e same time, t h e environment transformation process was and still is an inevitable precondition and consequence

of

t h e f u r t h e r development of society. I t gives a n opportunity to c r e a t e productive agriculture, to develop industry and transportation networks, to c r e a t e

a

good economic basis f o r higher material, cultural and social population

welfare.

The problem faced

is

how to deal with these conflicts. and in particular:

How

to avoid situations in which certain economic branches and planning organizations disregard

local

environmental conditions and only solve problems of t h e i r own interest?

How to avoid t h e creation of bordering t e r r i t o r i e s with contradictory functional purposes, which increase t h e self-decay of economical branches, prevents t h e stable economic development of t h e whole region and has an adverse affect on t h e environment?

How to coordinate t h e interests of t h e s e p a r a t e economic branches and concerted development of t h e whole region?

The traditional environment protection agencies are unable t o

deal

with these shortcomings. It is necessary to rationalize natural resources utilization of t h e region, taking into account redeveloping measures f o r t h e sustainability of regional development and t h e creation of b e t t e r environmental conditions. While undertaking regional physical planning

of

t h e t e r r i t o r y , one must not only consider t h e needs of each branch of the economy, but

also

t h e long-term perspectives of socio-economic and environmental development

of

regional human populations. In o t h e r words, sound environmental principles, maintaining t h e balance between ecological systems and t h e socioeconomic development in

a

chain of natural resources utilization and reproduction to ensure long-term economic development.

In

order

to realize t h e above,

w e

urgently need

a

reliable set of

tools

f o r economic-environmental situation analysis and scientific e x p e r t s system f o r top- level decisionmakers. Only in this

case

do possibilities really a p p e a r to

select

and implement Sustainable Regional Environmentally Balanced Development Strategies (SREBDS) f o r each region.

Environment Formation

as

a

Part

o f Natural Resources U t i l i z a t i o n and Socio-Economic Development o f the Region.

In t h e

last

few years, t h e universal process of man's intrusion into nature and t h e spontaneous destruction of ecological systems in Lithuania w a s m e t by t h e rational use and reproduction

of

natural

resources,

in combination with t h e purposeful formation of a n optimal environment. To support such a n alternative, b e t t e r interaction between scientific e x p e r t s and decisionmakers w a s achieved (Kairiukstis, 1985). The efforts of scientists at t h e Academy of Sciences, branch institutes and higher schools were united under t h e program, "Man and t h e Biosphere". The General

Model

System (GMS) w a s created, which

made

it possible to optimize t h e development and specialization

of

t h e main resource utilizing branches of t h e national economy on

a

t e r r i t o r i a l basis (Kairiukstis, 1982).

Keeping to

the

tasks of sustainable development

of

t h e national economy,

efforts

have been already made f o r natural medium optimization (quantity of main

landscapes determining its state), to determine

the

purposeful destination of

the

landscapes. An evaluation of s e p a r a t e t e r r i t o r i e s

w a s carried

out. For example,

t h e Department of Geography of t h e Academy of Sciences revealed t h e

anthropoclimatic resources

of

Lithuania (Figure

3).

THE BALTIC SEA

It appeared t h a t regions favorable from t h e point of view of t h e anthropoclimate such as t h e continental sea-shore of t h e Kursiu Marios lagoon,

w e s t

and middle Suvalkija, t h e c e n t r a l p a r t of North Lithuania have hardly been used f o r t h e development of recreation and health r e s o r t s . The Institutes of Construction and Architecture of t h e Lithuanian SSR together with t h e Vilnius S t a t e University p r e p a r e d a distribution scheme of recreational regions (Figure 4). While undertaking such a n optimization one has

to

take into account t h e local anthropoclimatic peculiarities,

air

and

water

pollution, s o t h a t t h e objects destined f o r recreation

are

notable f o r t h e healthy climate.

The joint e f f o r t s of scientific r e s e a r c h institutes and scientists of higher schools distinguished those zones being protected f o r special purposes. They concentrate t h e natural fund of flora and fauna, landscape variety as well as historical and ethnographical objects. These zones include r e s e r v e s of grassy and f o r e s t vegetation genofund and of s e p a r a t e animal species. Only t h e concentration of these t e r r i t o r i e s and t h e legalization of t h e i r status can protect them from e v e r growing industrial penetration and from negative consequences of agriculture and industry. Moreover, p a r t of t h e protected t e r r i t o r i e s should

at

least satisfy t h e utilitary needs of recreation ( b e r r y plantations, fields of intensive recreational s p o r t hunting, etc.).

The Department of Geography of t h e Academy of Sciences of t h e Lithuanian SSR evaluated t h e d e g r e e of erosion and denudation in Lithuania (Figure 5).

Together with t h e Lithuanian Research Institute of Forestry and t h e Institute of Botany, those regions

were

determined which are lacking in f o r e s t s (Figure 6).

Means f o r afforestation

were

p r e p a r e d

to

p r o t e c t a r a b l e lands and

waters

(Kairiukstis et al., 1980). The investigations of t h e Institute of Physics of t h e Academy of Sciences of t h e Lithuanian SSR have made it possible

to

discuss in broad terms t h e background atmospheric pollution, fall-out of sulphur, fluorine, nitrogen and o t h e r compounds,

to

make model calculations and t o reveal t h e influence of l a r g e industrial objects and towns on t h e neighboring regions. D a t a are stored on t h e intensive we of fertilizers and pesticides and t h e i r influence on ecosystems links in s e p a r a t e regions. All this i s t h e basis f o r t h e monitoring and also t h e prognosis of inevitable change of f o r e s t s and a r a b l e lands. This also s e r v e s

as a

basis

to

^obtain

a

sustainable environmentally balanced regional development.

The

state

of t h e natural ecosystems depends on climatic background situations which have a n impact on a l l ecosystems. Dendrochronological investigations c a r r i e d out in t h e Lithuanian Research Institute of Forestry and in t h e Institute of Botany reveal t h e long-term rhythm of t h e forests' growth. Approximately every 11 and 22 y e a r s t h e maximum and minimum in t h e growth of

trees

r e p e a t s itself.

The long-term (about 50 years) fluctuations of favorable and unfavorable ecological conditions are determined (Figure 7). For example, favourable conditions in 1904, 1915, 1925, 1945, 1957 and 1968, in areas with high humidity t h e growth of

trees w a s

20-30% above average. Vice versa, in 1908, 1930, 1952, 1963 and 1978 t h e growth of

trees was

20-30% below average. The fluctuations mentioned

are

in good correlation with c r o p capacity of agricultural lands. For example, t h e yield of cereals in t h a t y e a r is higher in which t h e marsh vegetation increment increases. I t is thus possible

to

f o r e c a s t f o r e s t growth and t h e growth of o t h e r vegetation f o r

at

least t h e next decade. Fluctuations of climatic conditions also b e a r a n influence on t h e general economic situation in t h e region.

This phenomena can perhaps be explained through t h e "fluctuation f a c t o r of entrepreneurship" developed by W. K r e l l e (1983). It must be taken into account while modelling t h e ecological situation and socio-economic development.

Figure 4: Recreational resources of the Lithuanian SSR. Souroe ; ScienWfio Researoh Institute oil Building and Agsicul- kuse and &he Vilnius Shbe University, Lithuanian SSR.

Figure 6: Regions of the Lithuanian SSR insufficiently forested from an eco- logical point of view. (It is necessary to increase wood covered areas by 1-3% in area 1 , 3-5% in area

2,

5 4 % in area 3, 8-10% in area 4, 10-15% in area 5 and over 15% in area

6.)

I N D I C E S OF _GROWTH

-

^%

The successful use of t h e ecological situation, forecast f o r t h e coming decade, and i t s adjustment

to

man's economic activity, make i t possible t o enlarge t h e ecosystems suitability and t o grow

more

stable yields. For example, in Lithuania, during t h e d r i e r and warm period,

more

productive c r o p s should b e sown as in t h e regions

to

t h e south (Ukraine, B y e l ~ ~ ~ ~ i a ) , giving p r e f e r e n c e

to

irrigation and moisture accumulation. On t h e o t h e r hand, f o r t h e period of cold and w e t weather f o r e c a s t f o r the end of this decade, one should b e provided with sowing grain produced in t h e

same

district or in neighboring n o r t h e r n and

western

regions, widen t h e grassy fields and r e p a i r and maintain t h e drainage equipment. A n analysis of t h e cereal yield during t h e last decades shows t h a t a s t r a t e g y of adaptive agriculture such a s t h a t outlined above might prove valuable.

The accumulated d a t a based on t h e investigations of various branches of science (Gvishiani, 1977)

as

w e l l

as

on d a t a banks using t h e above mentioned approaches (see section on Analysis of Issues on t h e Regional Level) enabled t h e creation of t h e General Model System (GMS) of t h e optimal use of natural r e s o u r c e s and environment formation based on socio-economic regional development saenarios (Kairiukstis, 1982).

Economic models (Buracas, Rajackas, 1982) simulating t h e development of t h e main branches of t h e national economy influencing t h e environment (agriculture, f o r e s t r y ,

water

management) and also of t h e industrial complexes (chemical, energy, etc.) through t h e Models of Interbranch Reproduction of Public Products and Land U s e (Rutkauskas, 1978) give a n opportunity

to

f o r e c a s t and optimize t h e (regional) r e s o u r c e s utilization.

The ecological consequences caused by t h e industrial processes in t h e c o u r s e of public product reproduction

are

evaluated in t h e typified geographical landscapes. Besides, t h e model of environment f a c t o r dynamics suggested by t h e All Union Scientific Research Institute of Systems Analysis (Kmtko, Pegov

et

al., 1982) and t h e CREAMS (Knisel, 1980) are

also

used. The adapted models are based on t h e suggestion t h a t s e p a r a t e branches of t h e national economy, depending upon t h e management systems and technologies dominating in them, b e a r a different influence on t h e s e p a r a t e landscapes (farm lands, waters, urbanized t e r r i t o r i e s , etc.). This influence is revealed in t h e changes of hydrological, erosive and chemical processes and parameters in soil,

water

and atmosphere. By simulating possible changes of farm lands and technologies, t h e desirable and undesirable tendencies of t h e economic influence on t h e environment

are

revealed. Those tendencies

are

evaluated according t o t h e dynamic concept of t h e environment.

Analogously, t h e model adopted evaluates t h e ecological influence of t h e atmosphere on flora, fauna and man. In accordance with t h e functional destination of landscapes according

to

s e p a r a t e pollution s o u r c e s (chemical plants, power stations, transportation networks. etc.), t h e necessary technological changes

are

made.

The r e s u l t s of economic development integrally determine t h e welfare of t h e population. The ecological consequences of economic development are determined and evaluated f o r each landscape with functional destination. These consequences determine productivity and genetic stability conditions of vegetation and animals, including man.

The decisionmaking (planning) bodies of t h e Republic select t h e optimal scenarios of natural r e s o u r c e s utilization and regional environment formation.

They analyze t h e alternatives and pass t h e i r decisions on t o leading bodies- ministries, departments and industrial-9gricultural complexes. The departments and complexes, carrying out t h e o r d e r s of t h e leading bodies through t h e i r economic systems influence t h e natural r e s o u r c e s and environment on t h e specific t e r r i t o r y . The annual and five-year r e s u l t s of this influence in t h e

areas