19 th April, EGU 2016 Vienna
Session CL0.01/EOS8
Media Interdisciplinary Approaches in Climatic Change Research and Assessment
Peter Burek
Yusuke Satoh, Yoshihide Wada, Martina Flörke, Stefanie Eisner, Naota Hanasaki, Sylvia Tramberend, Günther Fischer, Taher Kahil and David Wiberg, William Cosgrove
Looking at the spatial and temporal distribution of
global water availability and
demand
Half our planet’s population are water insecure…
Motivation
Africa, 14%
Asia, 26%
Oceania, 6%
Europe, 14%
North/Central America, 16%
South America, 24%
Africa, 14%
Asia, 26%
Oceania, 6%
Europe, 15%
North/Central America 16%
South America, 23%
Africa, 5%
Asia, 66%
North/Central America, 14%
Europe, 10%
Oceania, 1%
South America, 4%
Africa, 8%
North/Central America, 15%
Europe, 12%
Oceania, 1%
South America, 5%
Water supply 53900 km 3 /year
Water supply 53300 km 3 /year
Water demand 4600 km 3 /year
Water demand 5800 km 3 /year
2010
2050
North Central America, 16%
Africa, 14%
Asia, 26%
Oceania, 6%
Europe, 14%
North/Central America, 16%
South America, 24%
Africa, 14%
Asia, 26%
Oceania, 6%
Europe, 15%
North/Central America 16%
South America, 23%
Africa, 5%
Asia, 66%
North/Central America, 14%
Europe, 10%
Oceania, 1%
South America, 4%
Africa, 8%
Asia, 86%
North/Central America, 15%
Europe, 12%
Oceania, 1%
South America, 5%
Water supply 53900 km 3 /year
Water supply 53300 km 3 /year
Water demand 4600 km 3 /year
Water demand 5800 km 3 /year
2010
Humanity 2050 .
Lem, S. (1986) One Human Minute
writer of science fiction, philosophy
IIASA’s
Water Future and Solution Initiative Research Question:
What water-related policies & practices can be implemented now
that will be robust at improving
human well-being through water security
across a wide range of possible futures?
Water Future scenarios
② Climate change scenario:
① Socio-Economic change scenario:
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)
RCPs
RCP8.5 RCP6.0 RCP4.5 RCP2.6 SSPs
Multi-Models
Feasible
combinations
Water Future scenarios
② Climate change scenario:
① Socio-Economic change scenario:
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)
RCPs
RCP8.5 RCP6.0 RCP4.5 RCP2.6
Assumptions on water use
SSPs
Multi-Models
Feasible combinations
Approach
Storyline
SSP1 - Sustainability:
This is a world making relatively good progress towards sustainability, with sustained efforts to achieve
development goals, while reducing resource intensity
and fossil fuel dependency …
Water Futures: Scenarios
Models Institution
WaterGAP Kassel University (Germany), Frankfurt University (Germany) H08 National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES, Japan) PCR-GLOBWB Utrecht University (The Netherlands)
Wada Y, Floerke M, Hanasaki N, Eisner S, Fischer G, Tramberend S, Satoh Y, van Vliet M, Yillia P, Ringler C, Burek P. and Wiberg D (2015), Geoscientific Model Development
Multi-model Assessment: Water Demand
Approach
Models Institution
WaterGAP Kassel University (Germany), Frankfurt University (Germany) H08 National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES, Japan) PCR-GLOBWB Utrecht University (The Netherlands)
Wada Y, Floerke M, Hanasaki N, Eisner S, Fischer G, Tramberend S, Satoh Y, van Vliet M, Yillia P, Ringler C, Burek P. and Wiberg D (2015), Geoscientific Model Development
Multi-model Assessment: Water Demand
Multi-model
Domestic water demand
Results
WFaS fast track analysis
Population Growth Continues
• 33% more people by 2050 compared to 2010 globally (6.8 billion to 9.1 billion)
• 24% more people by 2050 in Asia 4.1 billion to 5.1 billion
Middle of the Road scenario
Available water resource per capita
Available water resource per capita
Seasonal water resources
0 20 40 60 80 100
0 20 40 60 80 100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Dependency ratio [%]
Accumulated runoff [km3/month]
Ethiopia
Internal External Dependency ratio
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Dependency ratio [%]
Accumulated runoff [km3/month]
Syria
Internal External Dependency ratio
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Dependency ratio [%]
Accumulated runoff [km3/month]
Egypt
Internal External Dependency ratio 0
20 40 60 80 100
0 20 40 60 80 100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Dependency ratio [%]
Accumulated runoff [km3/month]
Ethiopia
Internal External Dependency ratio
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Dependency ratio [%]
Accumulated runoff [km3/month]
Syria
Internal External Dependency ratio
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Dependency ratio [%]
Accumulated runoff [km3/month]
Egypt
Internal External Dependency ratio
0 20 40 60 80 100
0 20 40 60 80 100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Dependency ratio [%]
Accumulated runoff [km3/month]
Ethiopia
Internal External Dependency ratio
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Dependency ratio [%]
Accumulated runoff [km3/month]
Syria
Internal External Dependency ratio
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Dependency ratio [%]
Accumulated runoff [km3/month]
Egypt
Internal External Dependency ratio
