Data for Econometric Analysis of Energy Demand for Eastern European Countries

DATA FOR ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF ENERGY DEHAND FOR EASTEID~ EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

Albina Tsvetanova

July 1975 WP-75-79

Working Papers are not intended for distribution outside of IIASA, and are solely for discussion and infor- mation purposes. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect those of IIASA.

Data for Econometric Analysis of Energy Demand for Eastern European Countries

Albina Tsvetanova

June 1975

Introduction.

Econometric analysis is one of the principal directions of the studies of energy demand at IIASA. It contains a series of

studies [1], [2] including some characteristic countries for the world energy economy. This analysis of the Eastern

European countries covers the characteristic features and ad- vance over the international estimate made up to now in the field of energy analysis. The first step in these studies of the energy economy of the countries with planned economies along with some methodological problems is the collecting of data.

This work began two months ago directed by Prof. Willian D.Nord- haus. In the following the state and the results of this work are briefly presented.

1. On the approach of data collecting.

The econometric regression analysis is an iterative one.

The first step of this work corresponds to a "universal" approach characterized by an attempt to analyze the energy consumption of the principal consumer sectors (industry, transport, residential) of the energy economy of the countries with planned economy using a set of variables (GNP, NMP, prices and some other variables generally used in economic analysis). The results of this step of data collecting, the econometric analysis based on this data and the preliminary analysis now under way at IIASA on methods of forecasting energy demand used in the countries of planned economy will be the basis for the more detailed and definite data collecting.

In the following -2-

This will be used for several studies of energy demand and other studies in the energy project, of which one of the

most important could be a regional model of energy development for the countries of planned economy.

The sources of information up to now were the data received from the national committees of IIASA (Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Poland and the USSR), national statistical yearbooks, statistical yearbooks of Cor-mCON, statistical yearbooks of the United

Nations, annual bulletins of statistics (of energy, coal, gas, electricity) published by the United Nations and other statistics from the librury of IIASA, IAEA, Wiener Institut fUr Internationale wirtschaftsvergleiche, Osterr. Institut fUr Ost- und Sfidosteuropa- Forschung in Vienna. More details on th~s matter are given in the next chapter and in the references.

2. Present State of Data Collecting.

The general outline of the data needed for the first step of econometric analysis is given in Table 1. The collected data ^1S given for each country for the time period from 1960 to 1973 and presented in three kinds of tables:

1. Macroeconomic data 2. Energy consumption

3. Fuels and electricity prices.

The annex contains gas conversion factors.

the state is given by countries.

Bulgaria

The sources of information are the national statistical yearbooks, statistics of energy, coal and electric energy published by the United Nations and statistical yearbooks of COMECON. Table 1-1 contains GNP from 1960 to 1973 (except

1966, 1969, 1970) at current prices and indexes, NMP (1960-1973)

in current prices and indexes, population, average monthly in- come, basic exchange rate, consumer price indexes from 1960

to 1973.

-3-

Table 1--2 shows the total consumption of coal (total, hard,

brown), lignite, crude oil, gas oil and electricity (1960-1973);

consumption of coal (total, hard, brown), lignite and electricity in industry (1960-1973), consumption of coal (total, hard, brown) and electricity in transport (1960-1973), consumption of electric- ity in energy and residential (1960-1973). The data on con-

sumption of coal on energy and residential is not complete.

Table 1-3 represents electricity prices in industry and transport (1970-1973), gas oil prices in transport (1960-1973), coal price in residential (1960-1973) and electricity in residential (1965- 1973) .

Czechoslovakia

The sources of information are the statistical yearbooks of Czechoslovakia and the annual bulletin of statistics of the United Nations (of coal, gas, energy). Some data of fuel consumption

in industry, transport, and residential and fuel prices in industry (1960-1965) is not specified. A letter from 11ASA to Dr.Vasko

(chairman of the 11ASA Committee of Czechoslovakia) asking to help us obtain these data was given by Prof.H~fele to Dr.Vasko in the course of his visit in Czechoslovakia. The data are

presentect in 3 tables: Table 11~l shows GNP, NMP in current prices and indexes (1960~1973), population (1960~1973),average monthly income (1960~1961, 1964-1973), basic exchange rate (1960- 1973), consumer price index (1962, 1963, 1965-1971), capital goods price index (1967-1973). Table 11-2 contains total consumption of coal (hard, brown) crude oil, gas oil, natural gas, electricity

(some of the data marked with a dot is the data of production);

consumption of coal, natural gas; electricity in industry and

residential (1963-1973); consumption of coal, liquid and electricity in transport (1963-1973).•

aungary

The data for Hungary is collected without any help from the Hungarian Committee of 11ASA. The sources of information are

statistical yearbooks of the Hungarian Central Statistical Office.

-4-

Almost all the data on consumption of fuel and electricity

is available, but not complete because of language difficulties.

Table 111-1 presents NMP in current price and indexes,population, average monthly income, basic exchange rate, consumer price

index from 1960 to 1973, capital good price indiexes (1968-1972).

Table 111-2 contains consumption of coal (total, hard, brown), lignite, crude oil, gas oil, motor fuel, natural gas, electricity

(1960, 1965-1973) total in industry, in transport, in residential, consumption of coal, l,iquid, natural gas in energy sector (1960- 1973). Th~ data of petrol prices in transport (1970-1973 and of hard coal, natural gas and electricity in residential (1960-1973) is given in Table 111-3.

Poland

The data for Poland is based mainly on the information from statistical yearbooks and special statistics of energy given to llASA by the Committee of Poland and completed with data from statistical yearbooks of COMECON and United Nations. The data for Poland is relatively complete and includes the following:

In Table IV-1 GNP, NMP in current prices and indexes, population, average monthly income, basic exchange rate (1960-1973), consumer price indexes (1962, 1964-1971). Table IV-2 shows consumption of coal (hard, brown) liquid, natural gas and electricity - total and in the energy sector (1960-1973) ; consumption of coal (hard, brown), natural gas and electricity in industry and residential

(1963-1973), consumption of coal and e1ectrcity in transport

(1960, 1963-1973). Table IV-3 contains petrol price in transport (1960-1965, 1970-1973) and coal, gas and electricity prices in residential (1960-1973).

USSR.

The first source of information of the energy economy of the USSR was the '~ational Economy of USSP." received by Dr.Tsvetanov from the State Committee of USSR for Science and Technology. A set of books of this kind of collecting data from 1955 to 1974 was pro- mised. According to the latest information an order was given to

the Institute of Scientific and Technical Information to send these books to IIASA. During the two months, data collecting for the USSR was based on the statistical yearbook of the USSR, statistical yearbooks of COMECON, annual bulletins of statistics for Europe of the United Nations. The published statistical data for the USSR energy economy is not specified by consumer sectors. This question was largely discussed with Academician M.Styrikovich during his visit to IIASA (May 1975). It was promised that these data would be prepared and sent to IIASA.

The collected data contains the following: Table V-l - NMP in current prices and indexes, population, average monthly income, basic exchange rate (1960-1973), capital good price indexes

(1964-1971) . Table V-2 contains electricity consumption

(total and in industry) (1960-1973), natural gas consumption in industry (1965-1973). Some of the data of coal, crude oil and natural gas is in production (marked by dots) because the pub- liqhed data covers only production. Table V-3 presents average coal and natural gas, prices in industry (1970-1972), gas and electricity prices in residential (1972-1973).

3. Concluding Remarks

The data collected until now for BUlgaria, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Poland and the USSR is about 80% of the data needed for the IIfirst stepll of collecting which will give the possibility of illRlysis corresponding to the econometric analysis for the . countries with market economies.

Further work in collecting data could , in my opinion, go in three directions;

1. To supplement the already collected data by closer colla- boration with the National Committees of IIASA.

2. To include in the scope of the data the other countries of COMECON (German Democratic :R=public and Rumania).

3. To collect data for other independent variables for a more detailed regression analysis of energy demand--such as

investment, capital stock, labor productivity, weather data

-6-

and some other variables. The results are necessary for preliminary analysis of methods of forecasting energy demand in the countries with planned economies and for comparison of energy options.

The collected data needed to be checked, especially correspondence between GNP and NMP in current prices and

in indexes.

TABLE I. -7-

DATjLBI:~.~Ul-I}S:.~_~t:'l.'~S PO~ .F;.9()t:'l0J~~~.!:ncJ~Ji~LYSI..?,. QE._~~~RGY DEMAND

TRANSPORTATIONIRESIDENTIAL lAND COMMERCIAL

i

SEC r 0 R S :

INDUSTRY

HARD (COAL) HARD (COAL) \HARD (COAL)

I

LIQUID (HEAV~ LIQUID 'LIQUID (LIGHT

i

^{FUEL OIL)} (GASOLINE)I PUEL OIL)

GAS (NATURAL) GAS lGAS (TOWN AND

., I NA TURAL )

ELECTRICITY ⁱ ELECTRICITY ELECTRICITY

~IARD

HARD (COAL)

I

HARD (COAL)

r

^{ARD (COAL)}

!(COAL)

i LIQUID LIQUID :LIQUID

~LIQUID 'I

GAS i GAS GAS_I

'GAS

rLECTRICITY

!ELECTR.

ELECTRICITY ELECTHICITY

I

^{_. ii}

I

I

I

!AGGRE- ENERGY-j

bATE SEC'l'OR ⁱ

. ,

i

UNIT

BOTH N/\'l'U1-U\L

UN1'1'S

(JVlE'l'RIC '1'ONS,

KWH, etc

AND

10uWl'U

I

LOCAL

I

!

^CURRENCYI

iI PEE:

i

! PRICES

:j

I I - - - + - :

- - - - + - - - - 1 - - - + - - - + - - - + - - - -

!CONSUMPTION'

iIQUANTI'l'IES

,

!

..

__ .,

!

! ,

\

I

PRICES: •_I

i

j

" I

iI

- CURRENT

"

"

"

G.N.P (G.D.P.) DEFLATOR

. GROSS (NATIONAL PRODUCT - CONSTANT

OR DOMESTIC)

" 11

INDEX NU1JBERS LOCAL CUlmENCY

~~i~-{g~-~MIC ^I

^{U_I_J_1_'1_'_3 [ ,} A G G H EGA T E S

,STATISTICSI _

I

^I"

I

I

I

I

I

INDEX Nll! iBERS CONSUMER PRICE INDEX

MILLIONS POPULATION

1US$ 'fO

LOCAL CUl.RENCY ;:<:XCHANGE RATE

LOCAL CURRENCY INDEX NUfJlBERS

WAGE RATES (HOURLY EARNINGS IN MANUFAC-

TURING, MEN + WOMEN)

CAPITAL GOODS PRICE (DEFLATOR)

CELSIUS DEGREES WEATHER: DEVIATIONS FROM THE NORMAL FOR

THE YEAR; FIRST QUARTER

TableI-I.MacroeconomicDataforEconometricAnalysisofEnergyDemandforBulgaria 1970

I

1971!1972I1973 .I Years 19601961I1962I1963

!

1964

I

1965

I

1966

I

1967

I

1968

i

1969

~0;resates,Units

~~~~~---l

I

I co I 139

I

1.078.

131

!

1.078

127 1.17 I

I '

II. 126959.5,29088.031354.2: ,iII 238I'2541275:

! I

iI

10527.~ 10411.4!11241.7112141.~

210'225

12~2 I

8.515I8.558I8.595i8.643 124 !1.17

117 1.17I1.171.17

!I

I

! 19655.4121634.2,...

!

187

!

203

I

219

I I I

! 7853.0'18556.0

I

9349.8 1ⁱ 168I178

I

196

iii I

I 8.33518.404;8.464 !I,I :, 1.171.17

I

129 i ,8.177

,

I i

i i

^90.3

I I

.1.17

118 1.17

:89.6

:8.111 I,

109 86.7 1.17

103 84.7

7.98118.045

100 78.3

7.905

index

index

106 1ev10310.11082.5

I

12010.0119168.3

1~~B6.3115976.51

100105!115124137!151

i

168 106 1ev.4488.84715.85158.815675.86203.76635.6!7273.6 138

I

154

I

II

I

8.2308.285

I

I I I 92.496.4

I

107.114

,

I

106 ,lev Ilev :U5-$1

NI'1P

NMP

Gl\~P GNP Popula- tion Basicex- change rate,Average rronthly ir,cane

I

I 109.8:109.8I110.2 119.4119.5!119;119.2 110.5.110.3109.9106.2 111.0

106.3106.0 Ill.0!Ill.0

i ;Ill.21111.5 I

.

.106.5;106.8 I

ConsUID2r priceindex100100.9!104,0 indexA.

I

B.100

i E·

3 ", Note:...datanotavailable

Table1-2.EnergyConsumptioninBulgaria I•.Years

I

Unlts. 19601961

i

1962196319641965!196619671968!1969

i

1970I1971!1972'19731 I Total' Coaltotal103 t15935180542226223791275672930030053i32644346773501435855I3534935752 Hardcoal.103t701106851016582284,2819378342824546'50096062;714873426286

I

:Browncoal103t10C17980610572106051046310291954087498171i75247299!68977024

I

Lignite103t53087120100321090214~85155161673119614I21960

i

22481i22496

I

2130421386! 'Crudeoil103t120818383

i

1202425298332633548,5184I6030:7852!85289942I Gasoil;103t44148I42265

I

50093092112291449'...i••••••••••••i Electricity'106roVh46855450!61337278I8706·10285118111378815799i17521196162126623275i25221 IndustrvI;::II

~

Coaltotal103 t10245125581491116915:1995021569231922609728953!29696I30009!29918

l

30277;!I Hardcoal103t4865145681220:167023262618297534683762i46985481j5622 Browncoal103t6031625062206466:10935978568555135208495644464272i4280 Lignite103t3728579481239230i12190.132661489017609207772097820866:2016520375 Electricity106Kwh2491299633383921!47385555678677988795:971510735118251235413325 IEnergy :Hardcoal103t26322809 ;Lignite103t206838391171113187I1523116009I1672815826 :Liouid:103t4143 !El~ctricity10

6 KWh

317430517643I971.104712781524170719582040218124452394 I;

j~ransport I

3

!

ICoaltotal110t;21451703!15531275l10521074969815736709631690585 jHardcoal103 t16472639,6651504484391405322308i265345250 IBrawncoal103 t19341216915I609I547590578408414365365346330 IElectricity106 KWh96114128!186223253293335376435483574669712 I /Residential3

i

Hardcoal·10t123811195974113

i

Browncoal103 t37583999380330102373253623892201163716111529 :E1ectricity106 I<Wb.530647;69887998611801363160918412171246928273227I3647; L.

Table1-3.FUelsandElectricityPricesinBulgaria Years ,Unit i1960 ~196119621963:1964'1965!1966'1967;196819691970

i

19711972:1973 I / 0,0331

I

0,16

I

I 0,0231

b

I

.0,120,120,120,12

i I •i

i

0,0200,020

I

!

I I

! i

I !

0,120,0850,0850,0850,0850,085

i

0,085

I

,!!

i

0,023

I

0,023

I

I.,!

I I

!

I

I

I !

11,211,211,211,211,211,2'18,018,0\18,018,0'118,0

'I'

18,0

! I

0,0220,0220,022!0,0220,022.0,0220,022,0,022:0,022 1 ..

,-

-'

,

0,12 11,2

Industry hardcoali1ev/t bro.vncoal

I

lev/ti electricity

I

lev/K\Jh; I: TransFOrt

i

I hardcoal

I !

gasoil'10,12 electricity

I

lev,lmVh 'd'1

I

'IRes~ent~aiI ---1i ,hardcoal11ev/t~11,2

I

electricityl'lev/K\'Jhi

,

",'

TableII-I.MacroeconomicDataforEconaretricAnalysisofEnergyDemandforCzechoslovakia AggresatesUnit!IIiI :196019611962:1963

i

1964!1965

I

1966

i

1967

I

196811969

IJ .Years

I

I I197011971!19721973

I

iI

I t-- t-- I 101 100 106,6

102 100 106,6

i7,2

I 676,9715,51759,31803,3 165,7175,1i185,7 280,4294,7

I

312,4

i

329,0 153,7161,5

i

171,11203,0 14.33414.390114.481114.578 :19712041i211312180

. I i

6,63

I

6,63

i

6,63

. I ! I I

1

I

106,5

I

106,6

100 100 105,9

105 103 103

104 102

i

100

;GNP1109Kor!348,9;362,5I373,5373,1384,9II'405,61434,81559,7

i

596,6628,9

i

GNP

i

index

I

100iI!119,7

I

128,31137,0

i

146,0153,9

I

I'lMP

i~09KorI162,0

1172,91175,4171,4.172,6I178,51194,9

i

231,0

i

257,0265,7 INHPimdex100i106,7108,3:105,9;106,6110,2120,3!126,0,135,7145,7 IPopulation:106I13.

65~;

13.780113.860.13.952,

l~.

058!

l~.159Il~. 2~0

.

l~

.305

'l~.

362

l~. ~16 !

Avarnomon m,th1y

i

KorI'1436:1477i,o...1538'1574

i

161316831790I1900 legi:

I .., I I

^BaS1CEx-.K/i!I.i ichange:U~=$1!7,2

i

7,2

i

7,2.7,27,27,2!7,27,2I7,27,2 Irate

I: ,

! ICOnsurreri;II I.' !price

A:

in:1

I

99100102102 indexBIex100100101100 (1969=100),I •! •

TableII-2.EnergyConstnnptioninCzechoslovakia

,

t-' N I 809 1304 22 2759

i I I 6128855888946775'63131 25601259053144126591;23124 11 2940342934304928'5214 74229173!1042211104i12557 24887'3048413216033871!33916

! I \

3740\3617\3531!3351!3380: !I!

I

I 2103i2168\2762.2633;2865 i'I' 27408j28556\31010!33636

i

35453! 328\356:425I443!529' 686i1224\1242,2618

!

2069; 3586

I

3785

i

40504378' II II 1469

I

1332

i

12091027 3095

I

2869:18821619 129

I

92

i

6034 1906I2049

I

21502185 1076

I

918

I

1070i967:959 1428114037

I

724163196078 602I756100112741526 3577

I

3997

I

43914931I5441 I,_,

8001 29678I 2624 6135 266255206 25182

5932 25122 2821347330143216 2484199326512659 22379!211152185825448 175I196289224 294339448543 2411264428883273

2349'2264 25482720.2407i20511883:1824 68776149!5450i50874289

!

3664 190 13801737i17881906!1950 I 1477!1059723786827719 10400:111481180711160114716347 ,303334441441 1967t2173i2326253727393284 30893015 21479:22379 128174 1212552 20502370

6709:689166266445 26010i26336!2636626918 57226274 19874I21267!2264323883 I 2229 12723194 19560 121 1598 1874 780

3042 2607 17600 91 3856 1759 865

1690 3785 16675 31 4690 1531

-._--,, I 1 19701961

l

, 1963i1965\1967

I

\1971(19721960196219641966i196819691973 i Total

I

Ii Hardcoa.:2642229992

I

3111830193I30737'29745286842776228130290382966330732,30047I29590 Brownco,5547562068i65818699937197269042698556718170835722628178384791;85566!81249 Crudeoi:137.,r-,.!,~~,,,,,r.,,....,r,...,,...,""'\,...nn.,,...nrnr-{,\f'\~'1:"r""lri,..."t:"'...;"I"'ln Gasoil1170 Natural(487 Electric:20427 :Industry Hardcoal103t Browncoal103t Liquid103t Naturalgas109Kcal Electricity106ro'fu15671:1792418764 Energy Hardcoal103t >4500Kcal/kg, Hardcoal'103t ....:4500Kcal/kg Browncoal;103t LiclUid103t Naturalgas:109Kcal Electricity10

6 KHh

Transport Hardcoal103t Bro,vncoal103t Liquid103t Electricity'10 6 KVfu

Residential

i

Hardcoal1103 t Brawncoal

I

103t ,Naturalgas:10 9 Kca1

Electricity;1061\':JhIlLI961659:1819 II,I IIl

I

I' :I ,UnitsfYears

I

Table11-3.FuelsandElectricityPricesinCzechoslovakia Years Units 19601961I19621963196419651966196719681969\1970

I

1971119721973 Industry HardcoaliKcs/t iLiquid(80octjII Electricity

iKCS/~Vh I

I

148 450 159 202 600 219 600 220 600 226 180 600 227 180 600 229 180 600 229

180 600 228 Transtx>rt LiquidiKcs/1!4.0!4.04.04.02.12.12.1:2.12.12.12.1:2.1:2.12.1 I Residential ----=-,;,I i!I' iHardcoaliKcs/q:22.4

i

22.4:22.422.422.422.4...26.326.2.26.2i26.2 I', :Browncoal'Kcs/q16.0'16.016.016.016.016.0............17.217.217.017.45 ,3'

i

Gas:Kcs/rn:O.5

!

0•5!0.50.50.5:0.5i0.5O.50.5;0.50.50.5:0.5!0.5 IE1ectricityKcs/~~0.7!0.7,0.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.7 ,I

Ii:

I'I~[I ,i.;

I t-' W I

TableIII-I.113.croeconanicDataforEconcmetricAnalysisofEnergyDemandforHungary I I-' +=' I

119I 10.81

173.5 122 10.104' i 1757;

i

1 11.737! 101 101

1702

165.1 117 10.072 I 1638

156.7 III 10.050 11.73711.737:11.737 101,101 102100

!mdex;57 !9: 110for!142.0148.9

I

index

!

100105 :106 :9.984I10.006 I! Ifor;15751599

I

Ifori1 111.737: 'U8$1j!

731100

i

107

!

112 170.5189.7207.5:224.7

F

53.1

1

272.411294.3

I

122132143:150:162

!

170.181

i

190\ 10.148,10.16010.197:10.236~0.275:10.338lO.368:10.39810.432 iiii

I I

1766.18561915:1928[2012

!

2139

I

2241

I

23262484 !!i;[ 11.73711.73711.73~11.73111.73711.737.10.81110.81 II•,! ,j•:I

!

~1;: 103106106\100,101'102'104\ 104I110112

i

100;100101:103: •I•i Capitalgoodsindexi

i

105.9~101.8;102.3·101.6:101.9

I

indexi

I

!I:

! I

(previous.'I'.

iii

year=100)~,!Ii! :III !I~

I

Consur;erpriceA..

I

index(1968=100)'index B

·NMP ! il'~1P

I

Population

i P.,: .

monthly imccme I Basicexchange rate

Aggregates \UnitsYears

I

1960

I

19611962\196311964

I

1965\1966\1967119681196911970\1971197211973 9!

I

!: I

I

I,

I

GNP10for:i !! i

I

Q'JP

TableIII-2.EnergyConsunptioninHungary I I-' U1 I 1884 14923 1101 9703

23595! 4150 11257 8188 8038 299 132 4410 11555 i1849 111917 1126 6451

6060!72058053 186915221289 737:848'927 I3898!42704969 '16254117356,18622 I! iI !21844122590

I

44164206 11192611546 55026838

I

⁶⁶⁵⁹

7312 209!299 1111!127 I3586

!

3855 110397

i

10851

I

11862 I 113480 1190 7166

44955033:53936038 1170125314541789 436506:535628 29202873.34263667 12093128411376215008 23016;22008'21370!22104 44704815'4706i4487 1501614161'13840II13041 32193032i28244576 4642:5033;5393

I

6038 110i152166197 66:8191

I

100 2301:27853293I3454 84528900,9329

I

9940 ; i 1802

i

i 2092'2016;19031827!, .,10460j9678;959711110 588617I778960 5072i66518778'7217 1253

3898:4197 9611074 348:380 1280!1752, 1040411229 2470124181 45494691 1614415712 40083726 38984617 109100 5458 12371680 7461I79787025

1801-' I 784-i 9648

175r, 611-; 8724' 6387

1641-i, 6018340· 7979 1162!1183I126311227i1400

I

1655 7006!80401396

i

14531483

I

1989 3208

I

iI 321311419

I

11734'12051111585 179'195253I481554646 245

I

287144815352086i2925 1049 11122 ;

5630

1457-: 327- 7313

2608 595 209 428 6686 21256 2612 14714 3929 2608 100 34

103t 103t 103t 106m3 106KVJh 103 t 103t 103t 103 t 103t 103t ,103t 106m3 ,1091<\.Jh.5115

gn 'Crudeoil ;Gasoil ifutorspirit 'Naturalgas 1Electricity I Irrlustry Coaltotal Hardmal Bravnmal iLignite icrudeoil

IGas

oil futorspirit Naturalgas Electricity I [Energy lHardcoal3

I '>

4500Kcal/kg10t1028 iHardmal3 1

<

4500Kcal/kg10t6617 Bravncoal103 t2938 Liquid103t97 Natural9as10~Kcal568 Electriclty:101<\'.1h

I

units

I

lYears.

I !

1960:1961i1962

I

19631964!1965!1966

I

19671968I1969

I

1970197119721973

, '" I

'i!

I

;TotalI,,!! =----=---...•~3,~----------;~----...-_..__•I~._.,~.~~•._~!--_..I~-~_.,'2934829018296832871728398

I

29065 64056378

I

631457965633

I

5299 1986719659:186521706715910.155621 30762982!462755546855

i

8204:

Table111-2continued. I ... 0'1 I

I

""-1 I

1960!

J 1963

i I

1965

I

19661970

i

1971

I

1972I1961

I

1962:19641967i196819691973 Ii Transport

'i

iI! II,I 11168Coali103 t2187II 21192024

11~~~

14791548[1749:15121261;I Hardcoal103t10801739I 178814931314934840 943

I

772603i557 103t, 656I609Browncoal1107, 875611576670545687I756740I r..."l~ni1ln3t1hn?ql111

I 1h717qtin?ti9RI U92:I!IUU2Ufi2i !r1otorspirit!103t!47!6978!9196110136!166166172 IElectricity:106m"fuI275290324370415424573:602636699778I9249461069 II

I

Residential;

i !

Coal'103t3480:5080488844064448'47084517

I

387633223304 \Hardcoal103t381:605911697704723417i635:718!400582450 jBrawn,coal:10~t2781:4805,511852605068...4004:3952i3772

i

3436i27272853

I

Gas011,10t3:!21...,49;111;256

I

328;7...J

I

Motorgas;103t35i:;85103116!131141:165I200:260325I Naturalgas;109Kcal'172I:

i

224234356455630

I

903!1245113681820. Electricity106 mVh~548615

I

685761

I

866I9911126126814251606

i

1817

I

2045

!

23122550

i

Table111-3.FuelsandElectricityPricesinHungary 1967.19681969!197019711972!1973 I 3.03.03.0:3.0

Tr.:mSFort Benzin(86)for/1

I "'!

Years1 ,

,

I•, .,i .ii Unlts196019611962:1963196419651966! .Residential: Hardcoal,for/100kg:22.0;22.0.22.022.022.022.027.527.527.5

i

27.527.527.5;26.1:26.1 Naturalgas:for/m3

!

0.78,I0.79

!

0.790.800,810.840.840.84:0.86

I

0.811.451.39!1.41j1.41

I

,I'IIiII Electricity:

for;m~

11.21

i

1.20II1.171.151.121.081.030.99!0.97I0.940.910.8910.87l'0.851 !I

I , I I I

I I-' -...J I

TableIV-I.~·1acroeconanicDataforEconaretricAnalysisofEnergyDemandfor-Poland

I

Years

i

UnitsI

! I

19601961:1962:1963

i

19641965.196619671968!1969.19701971;19721973i

iG~

109 z1931.31057.9:1119.4

i

1182.0:1281.1:1387.711483.91599.11742.811848.411968.02201.0!2443.6

!

I·'!,:iii i~~~dex100113.6120.2!126.9137.4,149.0:159.3171.7187.1,198.5:211.3236.3262.4I

il~1P

109z1375.8.410.7:426.11460.1497.0!531.3567.2'605.6668.8-696.1i749.2855.09LO.8;

I

:1i"1Pindex100'108,135145153166.171,180:195215:238

I

Population.106 2979530133i3048430904313393155131811321633242632671'326583290932202'33512; .•••••••"'!••••j-I

;A~.monthly

,zl16831729,1780185118982013209521952296238424592504,2780'II llncome,-:I •i:

:!

BaS1Cexchange.iijI itzl/US$1:4,04,04,04,04,04,04,04,04,0:3.68,3.68i3.68

I

rae,.:I ;C<;>nslllrerpriceAindexIi99I100101;102:103:105107!108109!109

i I

index(1963=100)B

i

i102100101i103:102

I

103106

I

108Ill:113

I

i

; 'I'

I

I

..!I

TableN-2.EnergyConsumptioninPoland

I

Units

I

1960!1961

I

iII1962! I1963

I

IYea 1964

I

I

rs 196511966

I

1967!19681196911970

!

1971

I

1972

i

1973 ; '87717 4281 908 549" I f-' I.D I

32319 32804 486 623 6551 5368 3361

31979 260 35115 54017 22947 163 15366

2336521623:222272187121412' 76'190'2231181651 1989522629;295453159332874[ 3811740770;4340746294:500071 I

i I

21934123221!24385,26336284171 21288

i

24624,I26636

i

28483:32290 1! 103I167

I

334!3811417 293I462651;8101978 15141,14580

i

4868

I

5371 15934, II

I

!

I

7686II7150ill7273:6841[6452 :2264256228213078!3242 ,19809120932122611123098122271 :108/2321563740'379, :1779I1610I1968

I ••• I .. ·1 I

9651[10519110278/112781142781 8025 2021

20719 18552 89 273 4780

27443 451 20078 35818 19012 111 1247 8407

I

I 101065103888

~09724

1123801164631120170121908 2043923012!26785291393094513409644168 4058I5753

i

694974358368i1000111432 1570.2768:5840!6176i6863:73197737 5157955844'60211:64587!69814;7626682533 8484 1738

19440 17767 79 352 4394

27056 483 15770 32565 17932 227 1122 7768

; 100715! !19928

I i

3747

!

1376 47254 8806 1468

18591 15124 84 460 4051

27302 604 13273 30263 17871 619 1054 6677

98965 18064 3555 1378 43347 60152819127720 852 19549 12167

I 961

406I I 2999

i

i 9530

!

1315

i

17549'I 794

99365 15530 1990I 1231": 40053 20212 7038 45 420 27052578526236 841 10174 810 582316621 706

I 97523I 10128

i

1628

!

983"j 36912 990

3691! 27

!

I 416i

,

2504:

I

I

I

i

i I I

5989

20918

I I 93366I 5941! 1304I 821' 35357 503

22617'24450 20329 2736 19 310 2208

90454: 5058: 943I 734': 32558 .5456

I

i

I

I

I

5593j

T0t..:li3 oal.10t Browncoal103t ,Crudeoil103t iNaturalgas10~3 Electricity106~·fu29609 .Industrj 'Hardcoal103tce BrowncoalI103tce :Na.turalgas10

9 Kcal

'Electricity106ro~19897 .I Ener9'li Hardcoal103t!15595 Browncoal.103tI1807 .Liquid:103t:9

I

:Naturalgas;106m3299

I

;Electricity!10 6 KV1h

1918I 'Transporti

!

'Hardcoalil03tce,: ElectricitYil06ro'1h

l

684 Residential

i '

Hardcoali103t Browncoal:106ti j9: Naturalgas:10Kcal, ElectricitYi106 ro·fu

i

TableIV-3.FuelandElectricityPricesinPoland !! I

I

Units

years I

I

I" 1960

I

19611962196319641965

!

1966

I

1967

I

1968

I

19691970

!

1971 119721973; !Ii ,

:

,I

I

, I; :Irldustry!I ; iI •Hardcoalzl/tII248258

I

,i ;II!! Browncoal Li91id Naturalgas 'Electricity

zl/t ,zl/t ,zl/m3 zl/KVlh. ! 4.8

!

4.8

I

4.8I5.0

I

5.0I5.0

I

5.0II,

.. . ...

I

. ..

I

...

IIIV 1II

I

!I0 !II!I

i

500

I

:!II

i

I 500i5001500

!

500500j500i550550

I 550

I

550,,II

4.8 250250

4.8 250

4.8 ;zl/t I 3 0.5

!

0.50.5i0.9I0.90.9I0.9i 0.9, 0.9I0.9

I

0.9

!

0.9!0.9i0.9

I

I 0.39

I

0.39

I i

I i

; I h0.390.9I0.90.9

I

0.9

I

0.9

.

0.90.9

I

0.90.9

I

0.90.9

I

!

I I

i

IResidential [Hardcoal I :Transl,X)rt , :Benzin(78oct);zl/l I

TableV-1.HacroeconanicDataforEconanetricAnalysisofEnergyDemandforUSSR

!

I .1 j98 99

98 99

99 99

100 100

100 100

99 98

I

ConsumerA\ price(1963=100)Biindex

i~'lP

Q1P fBasicexchange rate

,NJ>1l? Population :Av.monthly incare

,GNP

I

IUnits

L

1,,,Ye

~

rs,

I'

"I .:1960

!

1961;1962

I

1963

I

1964

I

1965I19661967.196819691970197111972\1973\ II'I: .I

I'

I!I'\ 109 rub304!!:

l

420550587643.5:685.3!717.4769.81 index51'!;70

i

100107:112120

I

I' 9I;I 10rub145.0152.9164.6168.8181.5:193.5i207.4!225.5244.1261.9'289.9i304.1:313.1337.8'I,.I ;index100107'113117!128I137;148I161:174

!

183:199!210iI \6'i!. ,10212.4216.3

!

220.0223.5

i

226.7229.6:232.2234.8.237.21239.5j242.7245.1:247.5!249.7 1 II•l'!i :rub80.683.9

I

86.788.2

i

90.896.5100.2!104.7112.71116.9'122.0I'125.9

!

130.2

I

135.0 ,II'I

I

I 0.9I0.90.9!0.910.90.9:0.9:0.9,0.9i0.9!0.829

!

0.829O.730:

~

!IIII

I !

I'I! I• 98\98i98j98 99:99

I

100

I

100 I :

TableV-2.EnergyConsumptioninUSSR

I IV IV I

79579

i ;65949 1166.6 j

!

48.7,

I

II

I

IIi

· I .

!

i! '

!I'!

I

j '1'I

iii

985382il043840116575~934711101447

r

l075908 429.91458.1

I

488.4

!

520.5'552.9'I585.6 ·I

I

III !

I

I'·,I :I: i! i

I

II 51.~54.4 1

58.2 161.564.8 II ri ;!! I;I j:I ,I 6643715630261642166052 106.9,121.9134.6!151.6

I

!

43.8 iI

i r~~~

i

I40.6 I ^{I I I I}

I 145::~

I

37.1 42520 83.8

95946411614671095000 349.4372.9:399.7 , ; 32.9

317.8 29.2

287.4 23.9

260.9 20.5

231.7 17.7

207.5

i[Industry Hardcoal'103t Browncoal103t

I

Liquid·103t INaturalgas'109Kcal iElectricity.109~'1h Transport ,Hardcoal ILi''d;qul. iElectricityil09~'1h I

I

PEsidential

I

Hardcoal ,Li"d ,qw.'9 :Naturalgas~10Kcal IElectricity

110

9Ki-lh !

I

r

!

years

I

Units

1.- --- I

19601961196219631964196519661967196819691970197119721973 I I 386.4.1 395.1-408.2\416.5426.8\436.7

I

Total

I I

Hardcoal1106 t343.6377.0408.9-375.2'439.2-451.4-441.6451.0 T""\_______, I,"h...,...,..,,...~'''''')1''\n,""rr,IIf":'",,"1'",.;,,.r,.,,....n'...n...,,.f'\

r:. ,,.,. ..,

i,r:f'\, 152.4:153.4

I

317.6:336.0

I

1

20125~

213416 850.4:904.9. ,

0.020,0.020 II

Tablev-3.FuelandElectricityPricesinUSSR IiYears

I

..I Unlts-!'.i 11960.19611962;1963!1964\1965196619671968;1969:19701971;19721973

I

I

I!! iii

Induc:tryI,.!'

--

~!!.i;

I

hardcoal.rub/t

!

! !: Browncoalrub/t'20.020.0 Liquid:rub/l:8.08.0 Naturalgas:rub/m3 ,ElectricityrubjIZlJh Transport Benzin, I !rub/l0.10iO.l0I N W I Residential: 3 .Naturalgas,rub/m. .II

i

Electricity!rub/K"v1h: I

0.0110.011 0.040.04

Annex GasConversionFactors [Kcal/m3 ] I N ~ I 820084358728 85708230 85708402 10970

8321 8570 10970

9100

8689 1097010970

9100 10970G

G N

N USSR

Hungary Poland

l

Years Countries.III

;---1

19651966:19671968

i

19691970!1971

I

1972\1973i II:I

I

I .G10000;10000

i

1000010000

i

88608860

I

8600

i

CzechoslovaklaI'III~,lj Ni91509150749778227822

i

7822

I

GI7462!8615i!i!!I! !i 8670

I

8777

i

8250

I I

i

I

N8330833083308330

-25-

References

(

[1] Nordhaus W.D. "The Demand for Energy: An International Perspective", Workshop on Energy Demand, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 1975.

[2] Tsvetanov P.S., Nordhaus W.D. "Problems of Energy Demand Analysis, vlorkshop on Energy Demand, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 1975.

[3] Statistical Yearbook of Countries of COMECON, Statistica, Moscow 1971, 1973, 1974 (in Russian)

[4] Statistical Yearbook, United Nations, New York, 1972, 1973.

[5] Annual Bulletin of General Energy Statistics for Europe, United Nations, New York, 1969, 1970, 1972, 1973

[6] Anllual Bulletin of Electric Energy Statistics for Europe, United Nations,New York, 1961, 1965, 1970, 1972, 1973 [7] Annual Bulletin of Gaz Statistics for Europe, United

Nations, New York, 1966, 1968, 1970, 1972,' 1973 [8] Annual Bulletin of Coal Statistics for Europe, United

Nations, New York, 1967, 1970, 1972, 1973 [9] Statistical Yearbook 1960, 1963, 1965, 1968

Bulgarian Central Statistical Office, Sofia (in Bulgarian) 1960, 1963, 1965, 1968

[10] Tax Directions on the Use of Electricity, Price Committee, Sofia 1970 (in Bulgarian)

[11] Wholesale Price List of Coal, Price Committee, Sofia (in BUlgarian)

[12] Statistika rocenka, CSSR

Federalni statisticky URAD, Praha

1961, 1965, 1968, 1970, 1973 (in Czech) [13] Statisztikai evkonyv

Kozponti statisztikai havatal, Budapest (in Hungarian) 1960, 1967, 1969, 1970, 1973

[14] Statistical Yearbook 1965, 1971

Hungarian Central Statistical Office, Budapest [15] Rocznik statistyczny

Nakladem glownego krzedu statystycsnego

Warsaw, 1960, 1963, 1965, 1967, 1968 (in Polish) [16] Statistical Yearbook of Poland

Central Statistical Office Warsaw 1973 [17] Statystyka Elektroenergetiki Polskiey 1973

Zjednoczenie energetyki Warsaw 1974 (in Polish)

-26-

[18] Hational Economy of the USSR, Central Statistical Office of the USSR, ~loscow (in Russian) 1961, 1965, 1969, 1973

[19] lJholesale price list of coal, State Committee for Prices of Council of the Ministry of the USSR, 1974, Hoscow [20] The USSR in Figures for 1973. Statistical Handbook,

Statistika Publishers, Moscow, 1974.