Working Paper
EXPLORN'ORY ANALYSIS
OF THE
U B E A DATA AT IIASAA r n o Kztts
J a n u a r y 1 9 8 6 WP-86-1
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
NOT FOR QUOTATION WITHOUT THE PERMISSION OF THE AUTHOR
EXPLORATORY
ANALYSIS OFTHE
L 5 E A DATA AT IIASA
Arno Kztts
January 1986 WP-86-1
This r e s e a r c h w a s conducted in conjunction with a summer r e s e a r c h seminar on heterogeneity dynamics, under t h e direction of James W.
Vaupel and Anatoli I. Yashin, in t h e Population P r o g r a m at IIASA led by Nathan Keyfitz.
Working Papers a r e interim r e p o r t s on work of t h e International Institute f o r Applied Systems Analysis and have r e c e i v e d only limited review. Views o r opinions e x p r e s s e d h e r e i n d o not necessarily r e p r e s e n t those of t h e Institute o r of i t s National Member Organizations.
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Foreword
A group of eleven Ph.D. candidates from seven countries--Robin Cowan, An- drew F o s t e r , Nedka Gateva, William Hodges, Arno Kitts, Eva Lelievre. Fernando Rajulton, Lucky Tedrow, Marc Tremblay, John Wilmoth, and Zeng Yi-worked togeth- e r at IIASA from June 17 through September 6 , 1985, in a seminar on population heterogeneity. The seminar w a s led by t h e two of us with t h e help of Nathan Key- fitz, l e a d e r of t h e Population Program, and Bradley Gambill, Dianne Goodwin, and Alan Bernstein, r e s e a r c h e r s in t h e Population Program, as well as t h e occasional participation of guest s c h o l a r s at IIASA, including Michael Stoto. S e r g e i S c h e r b o v , Joel Cohen, F r a n s Willekens, Vladimir Crechuha, and G e e r t Ridder. Susanne S t o c k , o u r s e c r e t a r y , and Margaret T r a b e r , managed t h e seminar superbly.
Each of t h e eleven s t u d e n t s in t h e seminar succeeded in writing a r e p o r t on t h e r e s e a r c n t h e y had done. With only one exception, t h e students evaluated t h e seminar as "very productive"; t h e exception thought i t was "productive". The two of us a g r e e : t h e quality of t h e r e s e a r c h produced exceeded o u r expectations and made t h e summer a thoroughly enjoyable e x p e r i e n c e . W e were p a r t i c u l a r l y pleased by t h e i n t e r e s t and s p a r k l e displayed in o u r daily, hour-long colloquium, and by t h e s p i r i t of cooperation a l l t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s , both students and more s e n i o r r e s e a r c h e r s , displayed in generously s h a r i n g ideas and otherwise helping e a c h ot'ner.
Arno Kitts worked on two d i f f e r e n t analyses while at IIASA, o n e pertaining t o contemporary F r a n c e and t h e o t h e r pertaining t o nineteenth-century Sweden. This working p a p e r adumbrates his investigations into t h e Swedish d a t a . I t is a f i r s t s t e p , but a n important f i r s t s t e p , t h a t r e s e a r c h e r s who continue t h i s analysis will find v e r y useful. The Swedish d a t a w a s supplied t o IIASA with t h e help of Gun Sten- flo, who will join IIASA f o r some months in 1986 as a r e s e a r c h s c h o l a r . W e are g r a t e f u l t o t h e various r e s e a r c h e r s at t h e Demographic Data Base at Umea Univer- sity in Sweden who have c o o p e r a t e d with us in s t a r t i n g t h i s p r o j e c t .
James W. Vaupel Anatoli I. Yashin
Abstract
The Demographic Data Base at U m e a University, Sweden, h a s been in existence f o r o v e r ten y e a r s now. A file dedicated t o t h e study of individuals o v e r time h a s r e c e n t l y been made available f o r r e s e a r c h ; a copy of this d a t a is now at IIASA.
The file consists of individual life event h i s t o r i e s f o r women in seven d i f f e r e n t p a r - ishes in Sweden in t h e nineteenth century. Here, t h e a u t h o r merely p r e s e n t s some v e r y eiementary analyses of t h e d a t a concerning migration, and fertility, as a guide f o r f u t u r e r e s e a r c h . He also suggests t h a t t h e d a t a will b e of considerable vaiue in t h e study of heterogeneity in fecundability; a topic generating widespread publicity.
EXF'L0RATOP;Y ANALYSIS OF THE UMEA DATA AT IIASA
A r n o Kztts
Department of Social S t a t i s t i c s University of Southampton
Highfield, Southampton England
INTRODUCTION
One of t h e problems in historical demography is t h a t given a n a r c h i v e con- taining h e a p s of original documents, one doesn't really know what one h a s until hundreds, sometimes thousands, of man-hours have been devoted t o processing t h e d a t a . Fortunately, t h e UMEA d a t a at IIASA h a s a l r e a d y been processed. A full description of t h e demographic d a t a base at t h e university of Umea, Sweden c a n b e found elsewhere (Sundin 1977; Kalvemark 1977), but I will briefly summarize t h e d a t a available at IIASA. W e have life h i s t o r i e s of women living in seven p a r i s h e s , in various d i f f e r e n t p a r t s of Sweden, during t h e nineteenth century. These life h i s t o r i e s have been r e c o n s t r u c t e d using t h e technique of r e c o r d linkage familiar to family reconstitution studies. Because of t h e quantity and quality of t h e s o u r c e s , i t h a s been estimated t h a t t h e r e c o r d linkage p r o c e d u r e is 95% success- ful.
Table 1. The s o u r c e s .
1. Church examination r e g i s t e r s 2. Migration r e g i s t e r s
3. Birth and baptism r e g i s t e r s 4. Marriage r e g i s t e r s
5. Death and b u r i a l r e g i s t e r s
The seven p a r i s h e s , as well as being situated in different p a r t s of Sweden, have significantly d i f f e r e n t populations during t h e periods in which d a t a w a s col- lected.
Table 2. Population in t h e seven p a r i s h e s in t h e 19th century.
P a r i s h Period Population
Nedertornea 1818-1896 1093 2115 3056
Tuna 1804-1896 1088 2356 3577
Svinnegarn 1817-1894 555 523 633
Trosa 1817-1895 877 933 889
G ullholmen 1837-1922 428 489 724
Locknevi 1821-1899 1538 2498 2237
Fleninge 1819-1890 627 1239 1325
In Table 2 t h e p a r i s h e s a p p e a r with t h e northernmost (Nedertornea) at t h e t o p , and t h e southernmost (Fleninge) at t h e bottom. However, from now on w e shall always p r e s e n t t h e p a r i s h e s in o r d e r of size, s t a r t i n g with t h e smallest (Gullhol- men), and ending with t h e l a r g e s t (Nedertornea).
The d a t a at IIASA h a s been divided by parish s o t h a t one parish at a time c a n b e studied. Each r e c o r d begins with a t e n digit code uniquely identifying t h e p a r - ish, and t h e woman, t o which t h e d a t a r e f e r s .
The amount of information following t h i s r e f e r e n c e code v a r i e s a g r e a t deal from woman t o woman, depending on t h e number, and lengths of periods f o r which s h e was under observation in t h a t parish.
A s c a n b e seen from Table 3, t h e amount of potential information on any one female life history i s huge. The next s t e p i s t o determine how much of t h i s d a t a i s actually r e c o r d e d p e r woman. Some s e n s e of this c a n b e gained from Table 4.
Except where t h e e n t r i e s in t h i s table a r e preceded by
#,
they r e p r e s e n t t h e p e r c e n t a g e of t h e t o t a l number of r e c o r d s f o r which t h e r e l e v a n t information i s p r e s e n t .Table 3. Life e v e n t history d a t a r e c o r d e d .
Cumulative
Data r e c o r d e d
#
Digits#
TotalR e f e r e n c e code 5 , 5 1 0
Date of b i r t h : year,month,day 3.2,2 1 7
Date of d e a t h : year,month,day 3,2,2 24
Type of e n t r a n c e into t h e community 1 2 5
Type of e x i t from t h e community 1 26
Number of observation periods; up t o 1 0 2 28
Time period f o r e a c h observation period 3,2,2,3,2,2 1 6 8 Civil s t a t u s and f i r s t d a t e ; up t o 5 1 , 3 , 2 , 2 208
Number of children 2 210
Information on e a c h child; up t o 15:
Date of b i r t h : year,month,day 3,2,2
Type of e x i t from community 1
Last d a t e in community 3.2,2
Own o r r e l a t i v e s occupation 2
Legitimacy 1
In a i l seven p a r i s h e s , t h e d a t e of b i r t h of t h e women are v e r y w e l l r e c o r d e d , and, in all b u t two of t h e p a r i s h e s , o v e r 90% of t h e s e d a t e s are a c c u r a t e t o t h e day.
The d a t e of d e a t h i s f a r less commonly r e c o r d e d . This i s p a r t l y because, at t h e beginning of t h e r e g i s t r a t i o n period, t h e d a t e s of b i r t h of many of t h e women p r e s e n t in e a c h p a r i s h could b e determined, while, at t h e end of t h e nineteenth c e n t u r y many of t h e women t h e n p r e s e n t had simply not died yet. Another r e a s o n f o r t h e low r e c o r d i n g of d e a t h d a t e s will undoubtably b e out-migration; w e s h a l l discuss t h i s fully in due c o u r s e .
Type of e n t r y , a n d e x i t from t h e p a r i s h are v e r y a c c u r a t e l y r e c o r d e d . A c l o s e r analysis of t h i s d a t a would r e v e a l whether t h e p e r c e n t a g e s of d e a t h d a t e s c o r r e s p o n d t o t h e p e r c e n t a g e s of women who exited t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e p a r i s h e s from c a u s e s o t h e r t h a n i t being t h e end of t h e period of r e g i s t r a t i o n .
The r e c o r d i n g s of marital s t a t u s will not always r e p r e s e n t changes in s t a t u s ; t h e y may, f o r example, simply r e c o r d t h e marital s t a t u s of a woman who h a s just moved into t h e p a r i s h . However, i t may b e t h a t when t h e f i r s t d a t e of a c e r t a i n s t a t e i s r e c o r d e d t o t h e day; t h e change in s t a t u s o c c u r r e d on, or n e a r . t h a t d a t e . One c a n see t h a t t h e number of women who have more t h a n one marital s t a t u s
Table 4. Completeness of information r e c o r d e d p e r woman (%).
Cull- S v i n Neder-
holmen negern Fleninge T r o s a Locknevi Tuna t r o r n e a
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
# Records 1328 3047 3296 4453 6184 6608 7895
# w i t h children 402 954 939 1189 1956 1976 2167
Year of b i r t h 99 100 100 99 100 98 99
Year, month, d a y 96 87 99 90 98 92 87
Year o f death 34 19 2 1 18 25 25 38
Year, month, d a y 33 19 20 17 24 25 37
Type o f e n t r a n c e 92 9 9 98 98 98 94 93
Type o f exit 92 99 98 98 98 94 9 3
Observation p e r i o d s 92 99 98 99 98 94 100
1st m a r i t a l s t a t u s 9 1 98 97 98 97 94 9 1
Year, month, day 79 54 73 30 90 75 63
2nd m a r i t a l s t a t u s 25 20 15 16 25 23 20
Year, month, day 25 19 14 16 24 2 1 18
Children 30 3 1 28 26 3 1 29 27
r e c o r d e d i s r e l a t i v e l y low, t h e number of women who h a v e more t h a n two r e c o r d e d declines p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y .
P e r h a p s t h e m o s t s t r i k i n g of all t h e rows of d a t a in Table 4 i s t h e o n e con- c e r n i n g t h e number of women r e c o r d s who h a v e a n y information r e c o r d e d a b o u t c h i l d r e n . I t i s highly unlikely t h a t only approximately 30% of t h e female population of nineteenth c e n t u r y Sweden were producing a n y c h i l d r e n . 1 h a v e n o t y e t d i s c o v e r e d t h e e x a c t c a u s e s of t h i s , b u t I e x p e c t t h a t it i s d u e t o many women being u n d e r o b s e r v a t i o n f o r s h o r t l e n g t h s of time; b e c a u s e of migration, etc.
F o r t h e women who d o h a v e c h i l d r e n , t h e information p e r child i s p r e s e n t e d in Table 5, as it was f o r all t h e women in Table 4.
S i n c e we h a v e n o r e l i a b l e estimate of t h e number of childless women, w e c a n only compute t h e mean family s i z e of women who d o h a v e c h i l d r e n ; t h i s f i g u r e d o e s n o t c o r r e s p o n d t o t h e g r o s s r e p r o d u c t i o n rate.
Table 5. Completeness of information r e c o r d e d p e r r e c o r d e d child (%).
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
#
Women 1328 3047 3296 4453 6184 6608 7895#
Children 1681 2756 3133 3346 6415 6218 9440# A v e r a g e p e r
f e r t i l e woman 4.18 2.89 3.34 2.81 3.28 3.15 4.36
Year of b i r t h 100 100 99 99 100 99 99
Year, month, day 99 98 99 99 99 99 98
Type of e x i t 94 97 97 97 97 97 93
Year of e x i t 94 97 97 97 97 97 93
Year, month, day 90 70 88 5 1 94 88 81
Ownhelatives
occupation 55 59 62 65 68 57 49
Legitimacy 67 10 74 64 91 77 86
W e have a v e r y high r e c o r d i n g of d a t e s of bi.rth (mostly a c c u r a t e t o t h e day), and e x i t from t h e community (except f o r Trosa (4)). Recording of occupation is l e s s common, while t h e d a t a o n legitimacy v a r i e s g r e a t l y from p a r i s h t o p a r i s h ( t h e 10% r e c o r d i n g of legitimacy information in Svinnegarn (2) i s due t o a d a t a t r a n - scription e r r o r on t h e computer t a p e ; t h e a c t u a l d a t a f o r Svinnegarn is e x p e c t e d t o a r r i v e at IIASA s h o r t l y .
The rest of t h i s p a p e r will b e devoted t o t h e presentation of s o m e preliminary r e s u l t s concerning t h e demography of t h e s e seven Swedish p a r i s h e s in t h e nineteenth century. The d a t a i s ideal f o r t h e analysis of f e r t i l i t y (since m o s t of t h e d a t a c o v e r s children).
However, t h e effects of migration c a n bias many measures in historical demog- r a p h y , s o w e shall discuss t h e s e b e f o r e conducting analyses f o r which t h e d a t a ap- p e a r s t o b e more a p p r o p r i a t e .
MIGRATION
Tine quantitative study of migration will always b e difficult because we a r e ex- amining an event which r e f l e c t s two dimensions: s p a c e and time. Usually t h e d a t a available f o r such studies i s l a r g e in quantity, but often desperately r e s t r i c t i v e in detail. Essentially, t h e r e a r e t h r e e types of evidence used f o r t h e study of migra- tion in historical communities:
1 ) Direct evidence f i r m i g r a t i o n
In Sweden t h e existence of migration r e g i s t e r s has provided v e r y d i r e c t evi- dence f o r migration. In England, licenses t o move have been analysed. On t h e international level, p a s s p o r t lists and shipping r e g i s t e r s can b e examined.
2 ) Indirect evidence for m i g r a t i o n
Settlement P a p e r s , and Church Court Depositions have generally been used by historians of Early Modern England. Settlement P a p e r s were normally drawn up when a n individual obtained P o o r Relief frcrn P a r i s h authorities; t h e P a r i s h responsible f o r a p e r s o n s P o o r Relief would change during t h e life of a n individual depending on where h e s e r v e d his apprenticeship, lived f o r a c e r t a i n length of time, e t c . Settlement P a p e r s have been analysed t o examine t h e mobility of p o o r e r men and women. Church Court Depositions were t h e statements made by witnesses appearing in t h e Church Courts and often include detailed descriptions of p a s t movements (Souden 1981).
Indirect evidence f o r migration c a n a l s o sometimes b e obtained from nomina- tive lists. Censuses, f o r example sometimes include a r e c o r d of t h e place origin from which migration can b e deduced.
3 ) Inferential evidence f o r m i g r a t i o n
Studies of e a r l y periods a f t e r t h e introduction of surnames into Europe have been used t o i n f e r t h a t migration h a s o c c u r r e d because t h e s e surnames were often place-names. Lists of tenants, t a x p a y e r s , parish r e g i s t e r s , and apprenticeship r e c o r d s have a l s o been used. Where two lists exist, compiled at different d a t e s , migration can b e i n f e r r e d from t h e exclusion of a n individual from one o r o t h e r of t h e lists (Buckatzch 1951; Cornwall 1967).
A
more ambitious t y p e of analysis has been attempted using P a r i s h Registers (Souden 1981).This analysis i s based on t h e assumption t h a t if a person i s not r e g i s t e r e d f o r a c e r t a i n life event, then t h a t individual did not e x p e r i e n c e t h a t event in t h e p a r - ish being examined. Thus, if a resident of a c e r t a i n p a r i s h does not a p p e a r on t h e baptismal r e c o r d s f o r t h a t p a r i s h , i t is i n f e r r e d t h a t h e was, at some s t a g e of his
life, a n in-migrant t o t h a t parish. Thus, we have seven possible combinations of Baptism, Marriage, and Burial; and t h e , in addition, t h e possibility t h a t a n individu- a l r e s i d e n t in a c e r t a i n p a r i s h f o r p a r t of his life, w a s , however, not born, m a r - r i e d , o r buried t h e r e :
No events:
---
One event only: B--- --M-- , ---B.
Two events: B---B, B-M-, -M-B T h r e e events: B-M-B.
This t y p e of study i s f r a u g h t with problems : i ) Omissions are indistinguishable from migrants ii) Common-law marriages are not r e c o r d e d
iii) Marriage often took place in t h e parish of t h e wife's f a t h e r iv) Women often b o r e t h e i r f i r s t child in t h e i r f a t h e r s parish v) Temporary migration cannot b e estimated
Even more s e r i o u s problems emerge with burial registration. Old people often insisted on burial in t h e p a r i s h of t h e i r birth. I t h a s been estimated t h a t no less t h a n 30% of burials r e c o r d e d in Barming, Kent, England, between 1788 and 1812 were of "imported c o r p s e s " (Schofield 1985). Also, burial w a s not inexpensive, and i t w a s often possible f o r a parish t o e j e c t people likely t o die in o r d e r t o s a v e money.
I t i s unlikely t h a t Swedish p a r i s h r e g i s t e r s s u f f e r from exactly t h e same biases as English ones, but, I s u s p e c t t h a t they have peculiar biases of t h e i r own.
I t is, however, important t o b e a r in mind, when analysing historical d a t a t h a t r e s u l t s c a n b e , and often a r e , inaccurate.
The UMEA d a t a provides a p e r f e c t opportunity f o r examining t h i s technique in detail, and assessing t h e e f f e c t s of t h e p r e s e n c e of any peculiarities on o u r results.
In Table 6, I p r e s e n t t h e number of r e c o r d e d women in e a c h of t h e seven mi- gration c a t e g o r i e s , as a p e r c e n t a g e of t h e women f o r which information on e n t r y and e x i t from t h e community i s r e c o r d e d ( a s in Table 3), t o g e t h e r with t h e propor- tion of r e c o r d e d women who e x p e r i e n c e none of t h e t h r e e events in t h e p a r i s h e s in which they are r e g i s t e r e d :
Table 6. Number of women r e c o r d e d as born, married or died, in e a c h p a r i s h as a p e r c e n t a g e of t h e number of women for whom information on b i r t h and d e a t h i s r e c o r d e d .
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
B---- 28 13 1 9 13 26 26 2 3
-M--* 1 0 1 5 1 4 11 1 7 1 7 1 2
----B 4 9 9 9 6 8 8
B--B 13 6 7 6 8 1 0 1 8
B-M--* 1 2 2 3 4 7 7 6
--M-B* 11 4 4 2 9 5 8
B-M-B* 1 0 0 0 1 2 1
---
2 1 5 1 44 55 74 2 5 24Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
*Marriages are approximated by t h e number of women having a m a r r i e d s t a t u s i-ecorded, with t h e d a t e of t h i s s t a t u s to t h e day.
Before discussing t h e f i g u r e s in Table 6, w e must examine carefully t h e numerators and denominators used to calculate them. The d i f f e r e n t c a t e g o r i e s of e n t r y and e x i t are listed in Appendix 1. Our calculations h a v e not been adjusted f o r t h e c a t e g o r i e s 1, 8+9. Thus, all t h e f i g u r e s involving b i r t h and death will b e slightly lower t h a n t h e y ought t o be. Future work will correct f o r t h e s e errors.
Note also, t h a t , since m a r r i a g e is not a n e v e n t t h a t will certainly happen t o e v e r y woman, i t i s possible t h a t a migration c a t e g o r y B--B r e p r e s e n t s someone who h a s lived h e r whole life in one p a r i s h , but h a s simply not got married.
If w e p r o c e e d u n d e r t h e assumption t h a t t h e d a t a in e a c h p a r i s h i s as a c c u r a t e as i t i s in any o t h e r , w e are a b l e t o draw conclusions about t h e r e l a t i v e incidences of migration. I t would a p p e a r t h a t l e s s t h a n 30% of t h e female population remain in t h e i r p a r i s h of b i r t h until m a r r i a g e o r d e a t h , roughly 10-20% live temporarily in t h e i r p a r i s h of m a r r i a g e without having been b o r n t h e r e . The extremely low fig- u r e s for d e a t h c a n b e quite simply explained by r e f e r r i n g back t o Table 4, where w e see t h a t d a t e of d e a t h (and hence information on d e a t h ) i s only r e c o r d e d f o r a b o u t 30% of t h e women.
The c a t e g o r y B-B gives some indication of t h e e x t e n t of r e t u r n migration, bearing in mind t h a t t h i s f i g u r e a l s o includes women who n e v e r marry. Where b i r t h and marriage, o r m a r r i a g e and d e a t h only are r e c o r d e d , w e have a n idea of t h e
movement of m a r r i e d c o u p l e s i n t o and o u t of t h e p a r i s h .
The f i n a l f i g u r e c o n c e r n i n g B-M-B i s p a r t i c u l a r l y s t r i k i n g , b u t w e must remember t h a t i t i s biased by t h e lack of d e a t h d a t a . The l a r g e s t v a r i a t i o n between t h e p a r i s h e s a p p e a r s in t h e l a s t row c o n c e r n i n g t h o s e women with none of t h e t h r e e life e v e n t s r e c o r d e d . This f i g u r e r a n g e s f r o m 21% in Gullholmen (1) t o 74% in Locknevi (5).
If w e examine t h e f i g u r e s a c r o s s columns, w e c a n see t h a t t h e p e r c e n t a g e s in t h e d i f f e r e n t migration c a t e g o r i e s v a r y significantly f r o m p a r i s h to p a r i s h .
My r e a s o n f o r t h i s a n a l y s i s w a s to gain some feeling f o r t h e d i f f e r e n c e s between t h e p a r i s h e s , a n d , I s h a l l t h e r e f o r e d e f e r f u l l discussion of t h e implica- t i o n s of t h e r e s u l t s in Table 6, until I h a v e a s o u n d e r knowledge of t h e b a c k g r o u n d s of t h e s e p a r i s h e s , a n d h a v e developed methods f o r t h e adjustment of t h e denomina- t o r s used in t h e calculations.
FERTILITY
In t h i s s e c t i o n I s h a l l p r e s e n t a few simple s t a t i s t i c s c o n c e r n i n g f e r t i l i t y , in- f a n t mortality, a n d t h e subsequent movements of offspring. I t i s i m p o r t a n t t o r e m e m b e r t h a t w e are using d a t a covering a b o u t o n e h u n d r e d y e a r s to g e t some i d e a of what t h e d a t a c o n s i s t o f , w e are n o t y e t in a position t o examine t r e n d s in a n y of o u r m e a s u r e s o v e r time. S o , in Table 7, w e h a v e v a r i o u s m e a s u r e s r e l a t e d t o f e r t i l i t y ( d a t a f o r S v i n n e g a r n (2) is missing).
Table 7. Average family s i z e , p e r c e n t a g e legitimacy, a n d infant mortality f o r e a c h p a r i s h .
#
Children 1681 2756 3133 3346 6415 6218Legitimate 66
-
66 59 87 69Illegitimate 1
-
7 5 4 8B e t r o t h a l child 0
-
2 1 0 0Crude rate of
i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y 0.07 0.11 0.12 0.14 0.13 0.14
One can c l e a r l y s e e t h a t t h e rate of infant mortality r i s e s with t h e number of b i r t h s p e r woman (family size). I w a s s u r p r i s e d at t h e infant mortality r a t e s ; ex- pecting them t o b e far h i g h e r . In o r d e r t o examine infant mortality f u r t h e r , I had t o w o r ~ on just one p a r i s h (because of t h e v a s t quantities of computer time used in repeatedly processing about 40,000 r e c o r d s ) , I c h o s e t o work on Nedertornea (7), since i t w a s t h e p a r i s h with t h e highest infant mortality r a t e s , and illegitimacy r a t e s .
Before exploring t h e d a t a f o r Nedertornea f u r t h e r , in Table 8 , I p r e s e n t t h e distribution of t y p e s of e x i t by which t h e offspring l e f t t h e community.
Table 8. Completeness of information on children's movements (%).
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
#
Children 1 6 8 1 2756 3133 3346 6415 6218 9440Living at end
of r e g i s t r a t i o n 4 1 1 4 2 3 1 6 2 3 29 3 1
Died in p a r i s h 29 20 23 2 1 24 30 37
Moved in Sweden 0 62 45 5 9 43 30 15
Moved in Scandinavia 0 0 1 0 0 0 5
Moved out of Scandinavia
Again, w e c a n c l e a r l y see some significant d i f f e r e n c e s between t h e p a r i s h e s which shall b e e x p l o r e d in full detail at a l a t e r stage. But f o r now w e shall t u r n t o Nedertornea in p a r t i c u l a r t o attempt some c r u d e evaluation of t h e a c c u r a c y of d a t a .
NEDERTORNEA
Infant Mortality
In o r d e r t o c h e c k t h e d a t a on infant mortality, I produced t h e f i g u r e s p r e s e n t e d in Appendix 3. The r e s u l t s r e p r e s e n t a n analysis of infant mortality by y e a r of b i r t h of t h e child, 1800-1899. To t h e left of e a c h s h e e t i s a column giving t h e r e l e v a n t y e a r of b i r t h , w e are t h e n left with t e n more columns of numbers:
(a) In t h i s column, t h e number of children r e c o r d e d as having been born in t h a t y e a r i s given.
(b) The number of t h e s e children who also have t h e i r y e a r of e x i t from t h e com- munity r e c o r d e d , a p p e a r s h e r e .
(d) and (e) r e p r e s e n t (respectively) figures f o r t h e number of children who died, o r merely exited t h e community within t h e i r f i r s t y e a r of life:
(w) The number who died/exited within a week of b i r t h
(m) The number who died/exited 1 week t o 1 month from b i r t h . (y) The number who died/exited 1 month t o 1 y e a r from b i r t h .
((d))and ((e)) r e p r e s e n t t h e corresponding infant mortality r a t e s p e r thousand, calculated as ( ( w ) +(m ) +(y )) / (a).
Conclusions
7 t a p p e a r s t h a t . in most y e a r s , t h e r a t e s of death, and e x i t , a r e fairly close t o one a n o t h e r . Nevertheless t h e y do imply heavy out-migration of mothers with small children in some y e a r s , a t levels t h a t 7 am inclined t o question.
More important though, i s t h e f a c t t h a t t h e r a t e s of infant mortality a r e signi- ficantly lower t h a n those found in o t h e r studies (Brandstrom, 1984); I a m presently in contact with Umea t o discover t h e r e a s o n s f o r this.
Problems with the data
When examining t h e d a t a on marital s t a t u s f o r Nedertornea, I found t h a t some women were, f o r example, r e c o r d e d as married at one point, and as unmarried at some l a t e r point. I t seems t o me t h a t this would mean t h a t t h e r e c o r d linkage is in e r r o r in some c a s e s which could certainly have been verified e a r l i e r . Other discrepancies include women r e c o r d e d as having children b e f o r e they were them- selves born, o r a t v e r y young ages, and some d a t e s completely out of t h e period of registration. These e r r o r s a r e by no means common, but t h e i r existence must b e b o r n e in mind when conducting analyses, and, particularly, when writing computer programs t o p r o c e s s t h i s d a t a (some of my FORTRAN programs c r a s h e d due t o faults in t h e data); unless of c o u r s e you a r e f o r t u n a t e enough t o have t h e facilities t o c r e a t e a d a t a b a s e in which t o s t o r e t h e information.
DIS CU S SION
I hope by now t o h a v e given t h e r e a d e r some feeling f o r t h e t y p e of d a t a avail- a b l e , a n d t h e form in which i t i s s t o r e d in. I d o n o t p r o p o s e t o h a v e given a full anaiysjs of t h e UMEA d a t a at IIASA, b u t t h e information I h a v e provided should cer- tainly h e l p in assessing t h e feasibility of r e s e a r c h i n t o v a r i o u s demographic to- pics.
I would a l s o h a v e liked t o p r e s e n t more s u b s t a n t i v e background information on t h e s e v e n p a r i s h e s ; b u t , unfortunately, I myself am having difficulty in access- ing t h i s material.
D i r e c t i o n s f o r future research
My own i n t e r e s t s in t h i s d a t a l i e in both, t h e s t u d y of t h e e x t e n t a n d e f f e c t s of migration in h i s t o r i c a l communities, a n d , t h e a n a l y s i s of f e r t i l i t y with r e s p e c t t o determining t r e n d s , v a r i a t i o n s , a n d h e t e r o g e n e i t y in fecundability. Why, f o r exam- ple, i s i t t h a t in a population with n a t u r a l f e r t i l i t y some women h a v e just o n e child, while o t h e r s h a v e m o r e t h a n twelve? The a n s w e r s l i e in t h e c h a n g e in a woman's fecundability with a g e , a n d p a r i t y , t o g e t h e r with t h e e f f e c t s of b r e a s t f e e d i n g ha- b i t s , anovulation, s t e r i l i t y , a n d t h e f r e q u e n c y , a n d n a t u r e , of coitus.
D i f f e r e n c e s between women d o n o t end with t h e s e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s ; it h a s long b e e n known t h a t a p p a r e n t l y similar women will d i f f e r i n t h e i r monthly p r o b a b i l i t i e s of conception b e c a u s e of many u n o b s e r v a b l e f a c t o r s (Sheps 1973). W e classify t h e s e e f f e c t s as a t t r i b u t a b l e to u n o b s e r v e d h e t e r o g e n e i t y (Vaupel 1983).
When examining conception i n t e r v a l s (= b i r t h i n t e r v a l s
-
months) in N e d e r t o r - n e a , f o r example, t h e l e n g t h of i n t e r v a l c l e a r l y d e c r e a s e d as t h e family s i z e in- c r e a s e d .The i m p o r t a n c e of fecundability c a n p e r h a p s b e b e s t understood with a n exam- ple. I t is more a n d m o r e common f o r women in developed c o u n t r i e s to delay t h e i r f e r t i l i t y in t h e belief t h a t t h e y w i l l b e just as a b l e t o h a v e c h i l d r e n at later a g e s ; b u t t h i s may n o t b e t r u e (Trussell 1985). W e should, t h e r e f o r e , v e r y much l i k e t o u n d e r s t a n d , m o r e fully, t h e e f f e c t s of t h e aforementioned f a c t o r s o n fecundability.
The UMEA d a t a p r o v i d e s u s with n a t u r a l b i r t h i n t e r v a l s , f o r many women, ac- c u r a t e t o t h e d a y in a population with n a t u r a l f e r t i l i t y . W e a r e t h e r e f o r e in a posi- tion to a p p r o a c h t h e a n a l y s i s of fecundability, a n d maybe p r o v i d e some a n s w e r s t o t h e questions t h a t are g e n e r a t i n g widespread publicity at t h e p r e s e n t time.
A p p e n d i x 1: C o d e s and C a t e g o r i c a l V a r i a b l e s
P a r i s h codes:
76190 Gullholmen 51580 Svinnegarn 72440 Fleninge 63200 Trosa 55970 Locknevi 83590 Tuna
83290 Nedertornea Type of e n t r a n c e / e x i t :
Civil status:
Legitimacy:
living when r e g i s t r a t i o n s t a r t s / e n d s born/died in parish
moved t o a n o t h e r p a r i s h in Sweden moved t o a n o t h e r parish in Scandinavia moved out of Scandinavia
denote i r r e g u l a r i t i e s in t h e d a t a
married unmarried
widowed (only used if verified; else 2) divorced
b o r n in wedlock b o r n out of wedlock born a b e t r o t h a l child
Appendix 2: Occupational Codes
Big business man
Higher civil s e r v a n t s and s a l a r i e d employees Smaller business men, master craftsmen Lower civil s e r v a n t s and s a l a r i e d employees Farmers including tenants and lease-holders C r o f t e r
Soldiers Workers
Farm-hands, -maids Rural p r o l e t a r i a n s
Titles with no occupational r e f e r e n c e
Appendix 3: Investigation of data on infant mortality in Nedertornea (see page 10)
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