Investing in the Future of Jobs and Skills

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Investing in the Future of Jobs and Skills

Scenarios, implications and options in anticipation of future skills and knowledge needs

Sector Report

Post and Telecommunications

Authors:

Dr E. Dijkgraaf (ed.) (SEOR Erasmus University)

Dr F. van der Zee (ed.) (TNO Innovation and Environment) Dr G. Gijsbers (TNO Innovation Policy Group)

M. de Jong (SEOR Erasmus University)

W. Jonkhoff (TNO Innovation and Environment) A. Dieke (WIK-Consult)

S. de Munck (TNO ICT Innovation Management) D. Maier (ZSI Centre for Social Innovation)

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Submitted to the European Commission, DG Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities

Executed by:

TNO Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research SEOR Erasmus University Rotterdam

ZSI Centre for Social Innovation May 2009

DG EMPL project VC/2007/0866 Lot 14 Post and Telecommunications

This report is published as part of a series of forward-looking sector studies on New Skills and New Jobs in the frame of the project Comprehensive Sectoral Analysis of Emerging Competences and Economic Activities in the European Union.

This publication is commissioned under the European Community Programme for Employment and Social Solidarity - PROGRESS (2007-2013).

This programme is managed by the Directorate-General for Employment, social affairs and equal opportunities of the European Commission. It was established to financially support the implementation of the objectives of the European Union in the employment and social affairs area, as set out in the Social Agenda, and thereby contribute to the achievement of the Lisbon Strategy goals in these fields.

The seven-year Programme targets all stakeholders who can help shape the development of appropriate and effective employment and social legislation and policies, across the EU-27, EFTA-EEA and EU candidate and pre-candidate countries.

PROGRESS mission is to strengthen the EU contribution in support of Member States' commitment. PROGRESS will be instrumental in:

1. providing analysis and policy advice on PROGRESS policy areas;

2. monitoring and reporting on the implementation of EU legislation and policies in PROGRESS policy areas;

3. promoting policy transfer, learning and support among Member States on EU objectives and priorities; and

4. relaying the views of the stakeholders and society at large

For more information see:

http://ec.europa.eu/employment_social/progress/index_en.html

The information contained in this publication does not necessarily reflect the position or opinion of the European Commission.

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Preface

This report presents the final results of the study Comprehensive analysis of emerging competences and economic activities in the European Union in the post and telecommunication services sector. The report is part of a series of sixteen future-oriented sector studies on innovation, skills and jobs under the same heading, commissioned by the European Commission (DG Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities). Eleven of these studies were executed by a core consortium led by TNO (Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research) and consisting of TNO Innovation Policy group (Leiden, the Netherlands), TNO Labour (Hoofddorp, the Netherlands), TNO Innovation and Environment (Delft, the Netherlands, SEOR Erasmus University (Rotterdam, the Netherlands) and ZSI (Centre for Social Innovation, Vienna, Austria). The core consortium was in charge of the overall management of the study, the further elaboration and application of the overall approach and methodology, as well as data collection and analysis. This study on future skills and jobs in the post and telecoms sector has been executed by core team staff in close collaboration with A. Dieke of WIK-Consult (Bad Honnef, Germany, subcontractor post) and S. de Munck (TNO ICT Innovation Management, subcontractor telecoms) (see annex 1 for team composition).

The study was carried out during the period January 2008-May 2009. Stakeholders in the sector, including the European sectoral partners and representatives of various other organisations, have been involved in various ways and forms throughout the study. This included a sectoral kick-off meeting at the start of the study and three multisectoral stakeholder meetings in Brussels during which intermediate results of the studies were presented and discussed. Valuable workshop discussions in the frame of the project were held and inputs received from a number of experts. A draft final version of this report was validated and complemented during a second external, final workshop in Brussels on 12^th and 13^th February 2009. The final workshop brought together an apt mixture of different European and national sector experts representing the industry, European social partners, other various representative organizations, academia as well as the European Commission (see Annex 2 for a full list of participants). The workshop, which formed an explicit and integral part of the methodological approach, yielded a number of helpful comments and insights which have been used in further finalising the study. We express our sincere gratitude to all workshop participants and to all those that contributed to this study.

A special word of thanks holds for the European Commission, notably Jean-François Lebrun and Manuel Hubert, and Radek Owczarzak of the European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions who proved to be excellent guides during the project.

Delft, 1 May 2009

Dr Frans A. van der Zee (overall project leader)

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1 General introduction

This report presents the final results of the study Comprehensive analysis of emerging competences and economic activities in the European Union in the post and telecom sector.

The report is part of a series of sixteen future-oriented sector studies on innovation, skills and jobs under the same heading, commissioned by the European Commission (DG Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities). The study was executed by a consortium led by TNO (Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research) and consisting of TNO, SEOR – a consultancy of Erasmus University (Rotterdam, the Netherlands) and ZSI (Centre for Social Innovation, Vienna, Austria). The study was carried out during the period January 2008-May 2009.

While the main focus of the study is on the future of skills and jobs by 2020, the study is both backward- and forward-looking in nature. It analyses recent relevant sector developments and trends and, at the same time, depicts the current state of play in the sector with an emphasis on innovation, skills and jobs. Current trends and developments form the stepping stone and fundament for the second and third future-oriented part of the study which is scenario-based, forward-looking and exploratory in nature.

Background and context

The study should be placed against the background of the EU’s renewed Lisbon strategy in which securing and improving EU competitiveness and redeploying the European economy to new activities with more value-added and new and better jobs are key. In the process of change and restructuring to adapt to new realities, there is a need for a more strategic management of human resources, encouraging a more dynamic and future-oriented interaction between labour supply and demand. Without there is the risk that bigger shortages, gaps and mismatches of skills will result not only in structural unemployment but also hamper longer- term competitiveness.

Skills and jobs are of vital importance for the future of the European economy and have recently gained increasing attention, both at national and EU level. As stressed by the European Council in March 2008, investing in people and modernising labour markets is one of the four priority areas of the Lisbon Strategy for Growth and Jobs. The New Skills for New Jobs initiative launched in December 2008 (European Commission, 2008a) elaborates on how this could best be done. The initiative aims to enhance human capital and promote employability by upgrading skills, as well as to ensure a better match between the supply of skills and labour market demand. More transparent information on labour market trends and skills requirements, but also the removal of obstacles to the free movement of workers in the EU, including administrative barriers would help achieve this goal, and improve occupational, sector and geographical mobility. The initiative also stresses the need to improve the Union’s capacity for skills assessment (by improved monitoring and forecasting), anticipation (by better orientating skills development) and matching with existing vacancies. The current financial and economic crisis makes these challenges even more pressing. Further strengthening the economic resilience and flexibility of the European economy and its Member States calls, along with other measures, for support of employment and further facilitation of labour market transitions (European Commission, 2008a:10).

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Approach and methodology

The study takes a longer term future perspective, and looks ahead to 2020, but also back, and takes a highly aggregated European perspective. While it is fully acknowledged that more detailed Member State and regional analyses are important and vitally important for anticipating future skills and knowledge needs, the European perspective has been central in this analysis. Key to the study and a common point of departure was the use of a pre-defined methodological framework on innovation, skills and jobs (Rodrigues, 2007). During the course of this study this framework has been further developed, operationalised and applied to the sector. The approach combined desk research and expert knowledge available in a broad and dedicated research team with the knowledge and expertise of ‘external’ sector experts.

The purpose of this common uniform methodology is to deliver results that enable comparisons across and between sectors and hence enable the preparation of possible future actions to investigate the topic of new future jobs and skills for Europe, by encouraging a more effective interaction between innovation, skills development and jobs creation. The methodology is structured along various steps, each step providing inputs and insights for next steps to come. Overall, the methodology covers the following steps:

Step 1. Identification of economic activities to be considered (i.e. sector selection) Step 2. Main economic and employment trends and structures by sector

Step 3. Main drivers of change Step 4. Main scenarios

Step 5. Main implications for employment – changes by job function Step 6. Main implications for skills – emerging needs by job function Step 7. Main strategic choices to meet future skills and knowledge needs Step 8. Main implications for education and training

Step 9. Main recommendations Step 10. Final Workshop.

Further and next steps

The results of this study – along with 15 other sector studies using the same approach and being released at the same time - will serve as a guide in launching further EU-led but also other actions, by industry, sectoral partners, education and training institutes and others. One important aim of the study is to promote the strategic management of human resources and to foster stronger synergies between innovation, skills and jobs in the sector in the medium and longer run, taking into account the global context and encouraging adaptations to national and regional specificities. A very important element in further enabling and facilitating these goals is sound and continuous monitoring together with a uniform and consistent way of analysing future skills and knowledge needs for the various decision-making levels involved. The approach taken in this study aims to provide a broader framework that does exactly this.

Further dissemination and explanation of the methodology at the Member State, regional and local level are therefore vital in the follow-up of this EU level study, as is its actual take-up.

The results of the study include implications, conclusions and recommendations to anticipate future skills and knowledge needs. It does not in any way, however, assess or evaluate current or planned policies. Conclusions and recommendations may therefore coincide but may also oppose current policies and/or policy plans at the EU, national or regional level. The implications, conclusions and recommendations logically follow from scenarios – credible plausible sector futures – meant to better structure and anticipate possible future developments.

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Looking ahead in times of crisis

Even though the year 2020 may currently seem far off for most of us, the future will announce itself earlier than we think. In times of financial and economic crisis there is a logical tendency to focus on the now and tomorrow; withstanding and surviving the crisis are prime.

Nevertheless, at the same time the medium and longer term ask for adequate attention. In this current age of continuing and pervasive globalisation, strong technological change and innovation affecting production and consumption around the globe, timely preparations to be able meet future skills and job needs are called for more than ever before. This is even more true in the face of an ageing European society and ditto workforce.

Contents in five parts

The report consists of five main parts. Part I analyses recent relevant sector developments and trends and depicts the current state of play in the sector, with an emphasis on innovation, skills and jobs. The findings of Part I of the report combine original data analysis using Eurostat structural business statistics and labour force survey data with results from an extensive literature review of relevant already existing studies. While giving a clear and concise overview of the most important trends and developments, the prime function of Part I is to provide the fundaments and building blocks for Parts II (Post) and Part IV (Telecommunications) of the study. The findings of Part I are based on the present and the recent past. The following parts of the report are future-oriented and look at sectoral developments and more specifically developments in skills and jobs in and towards 2020. The core of part II and IV – which are similar in structure but relate to post and telecoms, respectively - consists of plausible future scenarios and their implications for jobs, skills and knowledge. These implications have been analysed for various job functions. In a final part III (Post) and V (Telecommunications), a range of main strategic options (‘choices’) to meet the future skills and knowledge needs is reviewed, including implications for education and training. The study concludes with a number of recommendations for the sector (individual firms, sector organizations, sectoral partners), education and training institutes and intermediary organisations, and last but not least, policy-makers at various levels, ranging from the EU to the local level. Terminology used in this report is further explained and defined in a glossary at the end of this report.

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Part I

Trends, Developments and State-of-Play

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Part I. Trends, Developments and State-of-Play

Guide to the reader

Part I presents the results of steps 1, 2 and 3 of the common methodology applied to the post and telecommunications sector. Step 1 delineates and defines the sector. Step 2 presents the main economic and employment trends and developments in the sector (mapping) and reports the results of a SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis. Step 3 analyses the main drivers of change of relevance for the sector based on a meta-driver approach and expert opinion. Part I of the report consists of 8 chapters. Chapter 2 identifies and statistically defines the sector. Chapter 3 provides an overview of the structural characteristics of the sector, including developments and trends in employment, production and value added. It contains information on work organisation (part-time/full-time, gender, age), and industrial relations, but also on emergent trends by function. It also addresses existing partnerships for innovation, skills and jobs, one of the possible policy instruments to better prepare for and adapt to the future, facilitate mutual learning and boost innovative capacity both at the sector and firm level. While not part of the methodology as such, partnerships form an interesting example of how the development of skills and jobs can be linked to innovation. Chapter 4 discusses the value chain (network) and its evolution over time, including issues of restructuring and relocation. Chapter 5 focuses on innovation, R&D and technological change, while chapter 6 analyses the impact of globalisation and trade on and for the sector. Chapter 7 highlights the importance of regulation especially in relation to employment. Chapter 8 provides the results of a SWOT analysis of the sector. Chapter 9 concludes with an overview of the most important drivers for the sector.

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2 Defining both sectors

Post and telecoms were amongst the most changing sectors of the 1990s. Historically, post and telecoms have shown considerable similarity in terms of sector characteristics. Although postal and telecommunications services represent different kinds of products, post and telecoms were in most European countries supplied by the same state monopolies until the early 1990s. Much has happened since. Both sectors have been privatised and opened up to competition following EU liberalisation law. Part of the new legislation concerned the division between post and telecommunications state monopolies.

An unprecedented pace of technological development and innovation in ICT products set the stage for post and telecoms to become fundamentally different and divergent sectors, showing different sector characteristics in terms of turnover, profit, market size, costumer demand, and so on. Particularly, new ICT appliances proved to be partial substitutes for conventional mail and telephone services. The huge increase of the electronic means of personal communication, but also Internet-based applications such as e-business (B2B; B2C), e-billing, e-banking, e-government, and Internet advertising and promotion have importantly altered the post sector. Some of the physical transport involved in postal services has been replaced by digital mail and mobile services have shown a strong growth market. In the postal sector, enhanced technology has led to new products and fostered demand in some areas, most importantly for express parcels. In the mail area, substitution of correspondence (by email) was largely offset by more advertising mail (direct mail). Due to these technological developments postal services are shifting from two-way communication services to advertising and transportation services.

The telecoms sector has been characterised by even more rapid developments, driven by new technologies (Internet, computers, optic fibre networks, mobile and handheld devices), strong liberalisation, deregulation and privatisation. Strong demand for a variety of broadband enabled services such as IPTV, radio but also live streaming (TV, films, music) and VOIP has provided an important incentive to service providers to upgrade their facilities and invest in even newer technologies (fibre in the local loop, wireless and beyond) (OECD, 2009).

Convergence is a key word in telecoms, not only in technology (the mobile phone being a prime example), but also in the blurring of boundaries between what in the past used to be different sectors. Communication media including electronic media, telecommunications media and broadcast media used to be discrete business operations providing distinct services.

Broadcasting, voice telephony and on-line computer services used to be operated on different platforms: TV and radio sets, telephones and computer and were managed by different business support systems. Moreover, different broadcasting media used to be each regulated differently by different regulators. Not anymore. New companies such as eBay, Yahoo, Google and Skype have come to the fore and compete directly with incumbent telecoms providers, but telecoms providers themselves also enter into other business domains such as communication, advertising, and (new) media. Telecom media convergence is about crossing multiple industries, where no longer companies confine themselves to their ‘own’ traditional markets (cf. Eurescom, 2005). Fixed, mobile, and IP service providers can offer content and media services, equipment providers can offer services directly to the end user, and media/content delivery providers are continuously looking for new distribution channels.

Convergence is the combination of all these different media into one operating platform, as the merger of telecom, data processing and imaging technologies. This convergence offers a new era of multimedia, in which voice, data and images are combined to render services to

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the user. Convergence also shows itself at the industry level with mergers of telecoms and media & entertainment firms.

Statistically, however, telecoms is confined to wired, wireless, satellite and other telecoms activities. Data processing, hosting, web portals, other information service activities and news agency activities are not part of telecoms, but form a separate NACE category (63) in the recently adopted NACE Rev 2 classification. The same holds for publishing (58), motion picture, video and television (59), programming and broadcasting (60) and information technology service activities (e.g. programming, consultancy, computer facilities management and other IT service activities) (62 in NACE Rev 2). The statistical limitations in analysing both sectors are clear, both because of the convergence phenomenon and because of new services replacing traditional services in the course of time.

As the post and telecoms sectors nowadays differ to such a large extent, they are described and analysed separately as far as possible. In the boxes below a detailed description of both sectors is given based on the definition according to NACE Rev. 1.1. Although NACE Rev 2 is gradually been introduced as from January 2008, no time series are yet available in NACE 2. Therefore throughout this report, data used reflect NACE 1.1 data.

Telecoms – in statistical terms

Telecommunications (NACE Rev 1.1, code 64.2) includes the activities of providing telecommunications and related service activities like transmitting voice, data, text, sound and video. The transmission facilities that carry out these activities may be based on a single technology or a combination of technologies. The commonality of activities classified in this division is the transmission of content, without being involved in its creation. The breakdown in this division is based on the type of infrastructure operated: wired or wireless.

Wired telecommunications activities include operating, maintaining and providing access to facilities using a wired telecommunications infrastructure. They include:

o operating and maintaining switching and transmission facilities to provide point-to- point communications via landlines, microwave or a combination of landlines and satellite linkups;

o operating of cable distribution systems (e.g. for distribution of data and television signals);

o furnishing telegraph and other non-vocal communications using own facilities.

Wireless telecommunications activities include operating, maintaining or providing access to facilities using a wireless telecommunications infrastructure. They include:

o maintaining and operating paging as well as cellular and other wireless telecommunications networks;

o purchasing access and network capacity from owners and operators of networks and providing wireless telecommunications services (except satellite) using this capacity to businesses and households;

o provision of Internet access by the operator of the wireless infrastructure.

In both cases telecommunications resellers are excluded under Rev 1.1.

In NACE Rev 2 radio broadcasting (new code: 60.10) and television programming and television programming and broadcasting activities (ditto: 60.20) are excluded from telecoms;

they used to be part of 64.2 NACE Rev 1.1. The main distinction under NACE 2 is again between wired and wireless, but additionally also satellite and other telecommunications activities. The latter include inter alia VOIP, telecoms resellers, specialised telecoms such as satellite tracking, communications telemetry and radar station operations.

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Post - in statistical terms

Post (NACE Rev 1.1, code 64.1) comprises postal services (‘national post activities’, NACE 64.11) and other courier activities (NACE 64.12). This division includes postal and courier activities such as pickup, transport and delivery of letters and parcels (domestic and international). The activities include use of the universal service infrastructure (including retail locations, sorting and processing facilities) and carrier routes to deliver the mail. An important difference exists between companies with a universal service obligation for specific mail items such as letters and companies that have no such obligation. Universal Service Providers, or USPs, have to provide services nationwide for all customers. The other companies deliver primarily express parcels, a service that is not related to universal mail service. Three categories of companies can be distinguished: National Postal Operators (NPOs), Competitor Postal Operators (CPOs), and Other Postal Agents (OPAs). OPAs are organisation that carry out one or more activities in the postal chain without having overall responsibility for the chain. In the remainder of this study reference is made to USPs (i.e. NPOs) and express companies or CPOs.

Not included in this study (and in accordance with the sector definition based on NACE Rev 1.1) are postal giro, postal savings activities and money order activities. These activities are important as they contain 14% of revenue for the average European company (UPU, 2008).

These services are included in the financial services sector. This study further excludes logistics services (freight forwarding, supply chain management etc.), which account for a substantial revenues for some of the more progressive postal operators.

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3 Structural characteristics of the sector: past and present

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3.1 Employment, production and value added trends in the EU Employment

The EU employed about 3.3 million post and telecoms workers in 2006 (Table 3.1). A large share of them, 83%, was working in the EU-15 and this share has not changed during the last seven years. The growth in employment was modest with 1.3% in EU-15 countries and 1.5%

in new Member States.

Employment winners are Germany, Ireland, United Kingdom and Slovakia. In these countries growth of employment was not less than 4.7% and the current share in EU employment is 43%. Upcoming are the new Member States Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Latvia and Poland, where growth is still higher with 5.4%. This means that in most EU-15 countries employment is declining. This is also the case in five new Member States.

Table 3.1 Employment post and telecoms, 2000-2006

Level 2006 Annual growth Share in EU Change in share

EU² 3366 1.3 100 0

EU-15 2789 1.3 83 0

NMS 577 1.5 17 0

Winning 1434 4.7 43 7

Losing momentum 717 -0.5 21 -3

Upcoming 361 5.4 11 2

Retreating 854 -2.1 25 -6

Definition Level (*1000) 2006

Average annual growth (%)

2000-2006

Share in EU employment sector (%) 2006

Change in share in EU employment sector (%) 2000-2006

Concentration >100 Concentration <100

Growth Winning:

Germany, Ireland, United Kingdom Slovakia

Upcoming:

Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Latvia, Poland Decline Losing momentum:

Belgium, France, Denmark, Finland, Sweden

Retreating:

Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Greece Spain, Austria, Portugal, Estonia Lithuania, Hungary, Romania, Slovenia Source: Eurostat/TNO.

1 As post and telecoms production and consumption take place locally, developments outside the European Union are not always important. Therefore, we concentrate on EU-developments and do not present extensive figures for BRIC-countries, Japan or the United States.

2 Note that due to missing data the EU is an approximation of the EU-27 only. GDP and trade data was not available for Bulgaria, Romania, Cyprus, Malta and Latvia. Cyprus and Malta lacked data on employment. This applies to tables 3.1 and following. The list of winning, losing momentum, upcoming, retreating (see subsequent tables in text) indicates for which countries data was available. Throughout this report, a change in volume or absolute number between two years - e.g. the number of jobs - is measured as the average annual growth.

Similarly, a change of a share or an index is measured as total change over the entire period. That is, if the share in 2000 was 10% and in 2006 15%, we report a change of share of 5%.

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Figure 3.1 shows that employment in post and telecoms is normally clustered in few regions in each Member State. This uneven distribution can be explained with structural characteristics of the telecoms sector with few large firms and large administrations.

Figure 3.1 Vertical share of the post and telecoms sector in total employment by NUTS 2 region, 2006

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Figure 3.2 shows annual changes in employment by region in the EU between 1999 and 2005 (based on the NUTS regions). It shows that there is no clear pattern of change across regions and also that differences within some countries are very large.

Figure 3.2 Employment changes in the post and telecoms sector by region, 2000-2006 (annual changes, in %)

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Box 1. Concentration index: what it is and what it measures

The concentration index assesses the relative contribution of a specific sector to the national economy compared to a greater entity, such as the EU, thereby correcting for the size of the country. In more general terms, the concentration index is a measure of comparative advantage, with changes over time revealing changes in the production structure of a country. An increase of the concentration index for a sector signifies relatively fast growth of that particular sector in the country concerned compared to the same sector in the EU.

How does the concentration index work in practice? We’ll give a few examples: if sector x represents a 5% share of the German economy and a 5% share of the EU economy, the concentration index of sector x equals a 100. If sector x represents 5% of the German economy, but 10% of the EU economy, the concentration index of sector x is 50. If the same sector x represents 10% of the German economy and 5% of the EU economy, the concentration index of sector x is 200.

The concentration index concept can be applied using different indicators (variables). In our study we measure the concentration index using employment, value added and trade, in order to make a distinction between the relative performance of countries EU-wide. We distinguish between four country groupings, each signifying a different sector performance over time. If a sector in a country has a strong position (hence showing a concentration index higher than 100) and has experienced a clear index growth over the last years, the sector is defined as winning in that country. If the sector has a strong position, but experienced a decline of the concentration index, we say the sector is losing momentum. If the sector has a weak position, but gained in the past, we say that the sector in that country is upcoming. If the sector has a weak position and experienced a decline of the index, we say that the sector is retreating.

Post

About 40,000 enterprises were active in the post sector, with around 37,000 in courier and the remainder in national postal activities. Altogether, they employed 1.94 million people which equals 0.89% of overall EU employment in 2006. The bulk of employment in post and courier activities is in the EU-15 (Table 3.2).³ However, the new Member States show considerably higher growth, 1% higher than the EU-15 and also 1% higher than post and telecoms together.

This is especially due to high growth in the Czech Republic and Slovakia. These countries are winning indeed. Winning countries employ 50% of the post and courier workforce. The difference in growth figures between winners and the other categories is considerable, pointing at large dynamics in employment. Although no detailed figures are available for Universal Serrvice Providers (USPs) versus express companies and USPs provide still around two thirds of total employment in the sector, the express industry showed much higher growth rates (Rambol, 2002). From 1998 to 2003 employment in the express sector increased with 13% per year (Rambol, 2002), while the sector as a whole saw increases of only 1.7% per year.

Employment in the postal sector is a factor 1.6 higher than in telecoms (cf. Tables 3.2 and 3.3). With the observed rise in employment in post it should be noted that an increasing number of jobs is part-time based. More freelance work and flexibility are keywords in post.

Moreover, the rise of employment in post so far ignores the reduction that could arise from further efficiency gains due to increased competition, and hence should be taken on board in future assessments of employment in the sector. According to BCG (2006) this potential would amount to a 30% efficiency gain, 15% of which would relate to further process optimisation and 15% to a downward effect on wages (‘monopoly bonus’ effect). Also

3 Note that only for employment separate figures are available for post and telecoms.

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diversification in the postal sector as well as decreasing demand for traditional postal services leads to shifts and effects revenues and employment.

Table 3.2 Employment post and courier activities, 2000-2006

EU 1944 1.7 100 0

EU-15 1718 1.6 88 -1

NMS 225 2.7 12 1

Winning 966 6.2 50 11

Upcoming 104 1.8 5 0

Definition Level (*1000)

2006

2000-2006

Share in EU employment sector (%)

2006

Growth Winning:

Germany, United Kingdom, Czech Republic, Slovakia

Upcoming:

Ireland, Greece, Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania

Decline Losing momentum:

Belgium, France, Luxembourg, Denmark, Finland, Sweden

Retreating:

Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Austria, Portugal, Estonia, Hungary, Slovenia

Source: Eurostat/TNO.

Table 3.3 Employment telecommunications, 2000-2006

EU 1230 0.3 100 0

EU-15 1071 0.7 87 2

NMS 159 -2.5 13 -2

Winning 438 4.9 36 8

Upcoming 34 2.3 3 0

Definition Level (*1000)

2006

2000-2006

Share in EU employment sector (%)

2006

Growth Winning:

Germany, Netherlands, Ireland, Finland, Sweden, Bulgaria

Upcoming:

Czech Republic, Estonia

Belgium, France, Denmark, Greece, United Kingdom, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia

Retreating:

Italy, Luxembourg, Spain, Austria, Portugal, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary

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Telecoms

Altogether the sector accounted for about 29,000 enterprises (figures 2005), employing 1.2 million people or 0.6% of overall EU employment. New Member States (NMS) accounted for almost 13% of EU employment. On average employment growth figures are low and almost down to zero in telecoms, with only a few exceptions (see Table 3.3)⁴. The largest difference is visible in the new Member States, where employment has been decreasing strongly. Only 36% of employment in telecoms is in winning countries, whereas only 3% is in upcoming countries. This appears to be a consequence of the stagnant employment development in the EU with only 0.3% annual growth average. Again, there appears to be a lot of dynamics in the sector looking at the difference in growth figures between winning countries and the other categories. The telecoms dynamics differ from the postal sector as only nine countries are in the same country groupings when both sectors are compared.

Value added and production

The development of value added has been more positive than employment and overall GDP developments for all country groupings (Table 3.4). For the EU value added for the sector grew by 5.6% per year between 1995 and 2006.⁵ For the overall economy, this figure was only 2.3%. Note that the increase in revenues and value added is mostly related to new services (diversification), both in post and in telecoms, as the demand for traditional services has significantly decreased.

Table 3.4 Value added post and telecoms and overall economy, 1995-2006

Sector Overall economy

Level 2006 95-00 00-06 95-06 Level 2006 95-00 00-06 95-06

EU 307 6.2 5.1 5.6 11469 2.8 2.0 2.3

EU-15 286 6.1 4.8 5.4 10883 2.8 1.9 2.3

NMS 21 9.4 9.8 9.6 586 2.7 3.7 3.2

Winning 119 10.9 6.5 8.5 3589 3.4 2.4 2.9

Losing momentum 16 4.8 3.6 4.2 519 2.8 2.8 2.8

Upcoming 86 7.4 6.2 6.8 3272 2.0 1.3 1.6

Retreating 85 1.5 2.7 2.1 4056 2.9 1.9 2.4

Definition Value added Annual average growth GDP Annual average growth

Billion euro 2006

% 1995- 2000

% 2000- 2006

% 1995- 2006

Billion euro 2006

% 1995-

2000

% 2000-

2006

% 1995-

2006

Growth Winning:

Netherlands, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Portugal, United Kingdom, Czech Republic, Poland

Upcoming:

France, Italy

Belgium, Estonia, Hungary, Lithuania, Slovenia, Slovakia

Retreating:

Germany, Austria, Ireland, Spain, Sweden

4 Note that according to (non-comparable) figures by ETNO/IDATE, employment in telcos has been steadily decreasing in the EU-27, from 1,094 thousand in 2001 to 987 thousand in 2007.

5 Note that ‘raw’ value added Eurostat data are not available for post and telecoms as separate sectors. Most recent Eurostat data for telecoms refers to 2005, published in Eurostat (2008).

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Developments in the new Member States were even faster, with 9.6% on average per year for the sector and 3.2% overall. EU-15 countries and winner countries respectively include the bulk of value added. Remarkable is the fact that Germany is among the retreating countries, whereas other large Member States like the United Kingdom and France are winning or upcoming. Poland and the Czech Republic are among the winner countries. However, even retreating countries show growth of 2.1% on average per year. This figure is a lot lower than the average of 8.6% growth per year for winning countries or 6.8% for upcoming countries, but still positive.

Table 3.5 Value added post and telecommunications, 1995-2006

Share in country Share in EU Concentration index

Level Change Level Change Level Change

EU 2.6 0.7 100 0 100 0

EU-15 2.6 0.6 94 -2 99 -1

NMS 3.3 1.4 6 2 127 27

Winning 3.2 1.3 38 9 122 23

Losing momentum 3.0 0.3 5 -1 114 -22

Upcoming 2.5 0.9 27 3 95 13

Retreating 2.2 0.0 29 -10 82 -30

Definition Share in national GDP

2006

Total change in share

1995-2006

Share in value added sector EU

2006

Total change in share

1995-2006

Share in country divided by share in EU 2006

Total change in index

1995-2006 Source: Eurostat/TNO.

The new Member States feature a relatively high concentration of value added in the post and telecommunications sector, however the share of value added of these countries in the EU total is small (Table 3.5). Still, the share of value added has grown double as fast in the new Member States compared to the EU-15. Winning and upcoming countries feature increasing valued added shares over the 1995-2006 period whereas losing momentum and retreating countries show declining shares.

Post

In the postal sector for universal service providers (USPs), the main providers of postal services, the EU showed less growth than the world average between 1995 and 2000, but much higher growth between 2000 and 2006 (Table 3.6). The USA and especially Japan saw a decline in this period. The BRIC countries all showed high growth in the first or second period. The express industry, the main competitors of USPs after liberalisation, is one of Europe’s fastest growing sectors. Turnover grew from € 20 billion in 1998 to € 35 billion in 2003, an increase of 12% per year. Although still small compared with the old Member States, it is expanding particularly rapidly in the new Member States. Total turnover was € 0.5 billion in 2003 in these countries, five times higher than in 1998.

In the period from 2004 to 2006 mail volumes grew by 6.5% on average in the new Member States compared to an average growth of 1.5% in the other fifteen Member States. The postal market is continuing to evolve towards a one way distribution market with business originating mail accounting on average for 85% of total mail volumes (European Commission, 2008b). It is expected that Member States with a less developed mail market

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will continue to grow substantively, with a marked growth potential in particular relating to direct mail as quality of service levels improve. In Member States with mature postal markets the situation is different. Some of these Member States can still achieve moderate growth rates whereas other Member States (e..g. the UK and the Netherlands) have already experienced declining addressed mail volumes in recent years (European Commission, 2008b).

Table 3.6 makes clear that USPs moved also towards other services as for several countries high growth in operating revenue is combined with decreasing letters and parcels (see also section 4). The number of international mail item (parcels and letters) sent through USPs declined worldwide, but not in Brazil, Russia and the USA. Domestic letter post is growing worldwide, but not in China, India, Japan and Russia. In terms of size, the EU and the USA provide almost 75% of the worldwide domestic letter post.

Table 3.6 Universal Service Providers in the EU, BRIC, USA and Japan

Growth operating revenue (%) Growth international letters and parcels (%)

Growth domestic letter post (%)

Letter post in worldwide post (%)

1995-2000 2000-2006 1995-2006 1995-2006 2006

EU 20 91 -20 21 27

Brazil 21 94 76 45 2

China 162 9 -71 -9 2

India 48 141 -27 -16 1

Japan 4 -59 -35 -8 5

Russia -20 194 3 -86 <1

USA 36 -3 19 13 47

World 30 21 -30 9 100

Source: UPU (2008).

Table 3.7 Revenue of public telecoms companies in bn euro, 1999-2005

1999 2001 2003 2005 Annual

growth

Share in total 2005

Australia 11 10 13 18 10% 3%

Canada 13 14 16 18 7% 3%

Japan 95 105 93 103 1% 15%

Korea 11 14 16 25 23% 4%

Mexico 8 11 11 14 15% 2%

New Zealand 1 1 2 4 29% 1%

United States 192 223 227 240 4% 34%

EU 150 162 222 264 13% 38%

OECD 486 545 610 697* 7% 100%

Source: OECD Telecom database, euro’s calculated from dollars using rate of 1.5 dollar per euro.

Telecoms

Total value added in the EU-27 amounted to €190.3 bn in 2005, with the UK €37.3 bn), Germany (€33.7 bn), France (€25.3), Italy (€22.9 bn) and Spain (€17.0 bn) accounting for the top-5 of revenue and value added generators (Eurostat, 2008a). In terms of value added, the

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top-5 accounted thus for almost 72% of the total. The major public telecoms companies have seen an increase in revenue in the last years all over the world (see Table 3.7). The revenue of an estimated €264 bn for public telcos has to be seen in relation to the overall revenue in telecoms in the EU-27, which amounted to €421.2 bn in 2005 (Eurostat, 2008a). In total about 29,000 companies were active in the telecoms sector (ibidem). Growth for public companies in the EU marked 13 %, which is high compared to Japan (1%) and the USA (4%). However, countries like Korea and New Zealand show much higher growth rates. It should be noted, however, that comparable rates are shown in new markets like Poland and Slovakia. Since Japan, and the USA make up almost half (49%) of the OECD total, their lower rates have a high impact on the OECD total. The EU-25 accounts for 38% of the OECD total.

In terms of turnover, the period 2000-2006 was characterised by uninterrupted growth (from 100 to 145 in index terms), with very strong growth in the beginning of the period, slowing down in 2005-2006 already. The financial and economic crisis further changes this overall picture. Most recent information indicates that overall growth in the telecoms industry’s revenue in 2008 amounted to 1.3% (European Commission, 2009). Overall the cluster TV, radio and communications as a whole had decreased by 3.5-4% in output during the period November 2007-November 2008, which is little compared to other sectors. Mobile operators seem to be better placed than fixed operators to weather the economic storm. Due to greater flexibility in cost structure, capital expenditure (capex) and fixed-mobile substitution being potentially sped up (ITU, 2009:10). The demand for basic ICT services such as mobile phones and Internet access has become more income-inelastic and therefore less affected, but demand for advanced applications is more uncertain. Rising unemployment may though accelerate fixed-mobile substitution, with consumers preferring to switch fully to mobile services.

Young people may delay decisions to adopt a fixed broadband or voice line in addition to mobile service (Analysys Mason, in ITU, 2009:752). For voice services, fixed-mobile substitution is a ‘one-way street’ and fixed operators cannot hope to regain lost customers, when the economy improves. Pockets of growth within the downturn also remain: new computing products (like netbooks), telecom handsets (smartphones), software categories (Software as a Service or SaaS) and media niches (WiFi radio) show positive revenue momentum, even while the broader industry is contracting (ITU, 2009:53).

Trade

Export in the EU-15 countries is more than twenty-five fold that of the new Member States (Table 3.8). In the EU-15 exports have been growing at remarkably high rates of over 10%

annually whereas decline occurred in the new Member States. Even in the EU-15, however, exports are only 11% of total value added. Still, export and shares develop positively in all country groupings.

The EU-15 represents by far the largest share of EU imports (Table 3.9). As well, growth in imports has been much higher in the EU-15 than in the new Member States. Growth is also higher than for exports. The new Member States did not perform poorly with 4% average growth per year, however the EU-15 showed over 11% growth.

The EU has on aggregate a negative trade balance; imports exceed exports (Table 3.10). This observation is true for the EU-15 and the new Member States as well, although less negative for the new Member States. However, for the EU-15 the trade balance improved between 1995 and 2006, whereas for the new Member States it decreased. Behind the fairly modest aggregate figures considerable differences per Member States are revealed. For example the

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winning countries saw their aggregate trade balances improve by almost €5 bn, whereas the retreating countries faced a decline of nearly €4 bn.

Table 3.8 Exports post and telecoms, 1995-2006

Level Change Share Change

EU 33958 12.0 11 4

EU-15 32678 13.5 11 5

NMS 1280 -2.3 6 -11

Winning 14616 17.1 18 10

Losing momentum 4954 9.4 17 6

Upcoming 6658 22.7 8 5

Retreating 7730 4.7 7 0

Definition Export in million euro 2006

Annual change

% 1995-2006

Exports divided by value added (%) 2006

Total change

% 1995-2006

Growth Winning:

Luxemburg, Netherlands, Ireland, United Kingdom, Estonia

Upcoming:

France, Italy, Slovenia

Belgium, Greece, Portugal, Sweden

Retreating:

Germany, Austria, Denmark, Finland, Spain, Czech Republic, Hungary, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia

Table 3.9 Imports post and telecoms, 1995-2006

Level Change

EU 36097 11.4

EU-15 34577 11.9

NMS 1520 4.1

Winning 13549 19.2

Losing momentum 14322 8.3

Upcoming 4954 19.6

Retreating 3272 3.1

Definition Imports in million euro, 2006 Annual change (%), 1995-2006

Growth Winning:

Belgium, Italy, Luxemburg, Netherlands, Ireland, Estonia, Slovenia

Upcoming:

France, Spain, Hungary

Germany, Sweden, United Kingdom

Retreating:

Austria, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Portugal, Czech Republic, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia Source: Eurostat/TNO.

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