System Dynamics Model for
Analyzing and Measuring the Benefits of Global Earth Observation
Felicjan Rydzak and Michael Obersteiner
International Institute for Applied System Analysis
33 rd International Symposium on Remote Sensing of Environment 2009, Stresa, Italy
Project
• European Community's Sixth Framework Programme –
“Global Earth Observation – Benefit Estimation: Now, Next and Emerging” (GEOBENE)
• The project objectives: develop methodologies and
analytical tools to assess societal benefits of GEO in the
domains of: Disasters, Health, Energy, Climate, Water,
Weather, Ecosystems, Agriculture and Biodiversity.
Integration and benefits measurement
Easy Simulation and
Results Presentation
GEO-BENE studies in
particular
Model n SBAs
Report n Data n
Analysis n
FeliX
Global Model
FeliX
• F ull of E conomic- E nvironmental L inkages and I ntegration d X /dt
• Global model trying to ‘mimic’
the whole system (the whole
‘elephant’) and make it an experimental field to asses benefits of GEOSS (does
GEOSS help us to get to know
<and ‘socialize’> with the
‘elephant’?)
• System Dynamics model
FeliX – Causal Loop Diagram
Population Total Fertility Gross World
Product
+
- Labour Force
+
+
FeliX – Causal Loop Diagram
Population
Life Expectancy
Total Fertility Gross World
Product
Health + +
-
+
+ Labour Force
+
+
FeliX – Causal Loop Diagram
Population
Life Expectancy
Total Fertility Gross World
Product
Health
Food Production
+ +
-
+
+ +
Labour Force +
+
DemandFood
Agriculture Land
+ +
+
FeliX – Causal Loop Diagram
Population
Life Expectancy
Total Fertility Gross World
Product
Health
Food Production
+ +
-
+
+ +
Labour Force +
+
DemandFood
Agriculture Land
Urban Land +
- +
+
+
FeliX – Causal Loop Diagram
Population
Life Expectancy
Total Fertility Gross World
Product
Health
Pollution Food Production
+ +
-
+
+
+ -
Emission Ratio
+
Energy Production
+ Labour Force
+
+
DemandFood
Agriculture Land
Urban Land +
Forest Land -
-
-
Forest Biomass Production
+
+ Crops Biomass
Production -
+ +
+
<Crops Biomass Production>
+
FeliX – Causal Loop Diagram
Population
Life Expectancy
Total Fertility Gross World
Product
Health
Pollution Food Production
+ +
-
+
+
+ -
Emission Ratio Climate Damage Water
Resources
Land Fertility
- +
+
Energy Production
+ Labour Force
+
+
DemandFood
Agriculture Land
Urban Land +
Forest Land -
-
-
Forest Biomass Production
+
+ Crops Biomass
Production -
+ +
+
+
<Gross World Product>
+
<Crops Biomass Production>
+
FeliX – Causal Loop Diagram
Population
Life Expectancy
Total Fertility Gross World
Product
Health
Pollution Food Production
+ +
-
+
+
+ -
Emission Ratio Climate Damage Water
Resources
Land Fertility
- +
+
Energy Production
+
Capital Investments from Energy Sector Labour Force
+
+
DemandFood
Agriculture Land
Urban Land +
Forest Land -
-
-
Forest Biomass Production
+
+ Crops Biomass
Production
- + Energy Demand
+
+ +
+
+
+
<Gross World Product>
+
<Crops Biomass Production>
+
FeliX – Causal Loop Diagram
Population
Life Expectancy
Total Fertility Gross World
Product
Health
Pollution Food Production
+ +
-
+
+
+ -
Emission Ratio Climate Damage Water
Resources
Land Fertility
- +
+
Energy Production Other
Investments Capital Investments
+
+
Capital Investments from Energy Sector
+ Labour Force +
+
+
DemandFood
Agriculture Land
Urban Land +
Forest Land -
-
-
Forest Biomass Production
+
+ Crops Biomass
Production
- + Energy Demand
+
+ +
+
+
+
<Gross World Product>
+
<Crops Biomass Production>
+
M
FeliX – Causal Loop Diagram
Population
Life Expectancy
Total Fertility Gross World
Product
Health
Pollution Food Production
+ +
-
+
+
+ -
Emission Ratio Climate Damage Water
Resources
Land Fertility
- +
+
Energy Production Energy
Revenue
Energy Sector Technology Investments Other
Investments Capital Investments
+ +
+
+
Capital Investments from Energy Sector
+ Labour Force +
+
+
DemandFood
Agriculture Land
Urban Land +
Forest Land -
-
-
Forest Biomass Production
+
+ Crops Biomass
Production
- + Energy Demand
+
+ + +
+
+
+
<Gross World Product>
+
<Crops Biomass Production>
+
FeliX – Causal Loop Diagram
Population
Life Expectancy
Total Fertility Gross World
Product
Health
Pollution Food Production
+ +
-
+
+
+ -
Emission Ratio Climate Damage Water
Resources
Land Fertility
- +
+
Energy Production Energy
Revenue
Energy Sector Technology Investments Other
Investments Capital Investments
+
+
+
+
Capital Investments from Energy Sector
+ +
+
Other Technology Investments +
Labour Force +
+
DemandFood
Agriculture Land
Urban Land +
Forest Land -
-
-
Forest Biomass Production
+
+ Crops Biomass
Production
- + Energy Demand
+
+ + +
+
+
+
<Gross World Product>
+
<Crops Biomass Production>
+ Technology
Stock +
Population
Life Expectancy
Total Fertility Gross World
Product
Health
Pollution Food Production
+ +
-
+
+
+ -
Emission Ratio Climate Damage Water
Resources
Land Fertility
- +
+
Energy Production
Resources Depletion Energy
Revenue
Energy Sector Technology Investments Other
Investments Capital Investments
+ +
+
+ -
+
Capital Investments from Energy Sector
+ +
+
Other Technology Investments +
Labour Force +
+
DemandFood
Agriculture Land
Urban Land +
Forest Land -
-
-
Forest Biomass Production
+
+ Crops Biomass
Production
- + Energy Demand
+
+ + +
+
+
+
<Gross World Product>
+
<Crops Biomass Production>
+ Technology
Stock +
FeliX – Causal Loop Diagram
Modeling process
• Information from other models, case studies, reports
• Group Model Building sessions with SME
• Nine model sectors: Economy, Energy, CO2 Emissions, Carbon Cycle, Climate & Environment, Population,
Technology, Land, Energy and the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS)
• Social Benefits Areas (SBAs) are inherently embedded into the model structure.
• Calibration to historical data (over a period of a century –
subject to data availability).
Economy Sector
Gross World Product
2e+014 1.5e+014 1e+014 5e+013
0
1900 1930 1960 1990 2020 2050 2080 Time (Year)
$/ Y ear
Gross World Product : Base Run
Gross World Product : Calibration\2009_03_09_Calibration
- in red – historical data
- in blue – FeliX model Base Run
Economy Sector
GWP per Capita
40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000
0 1900 1930 1960 1990 2020 2050 2080 Time (Year)
$/ (P er so n* Y ear )
GWP per Capita : Base Run
GWP per Capita : Calibration\2009_03_09_Calibration
- in red – historical data
- in blue – FeliX model Base Run
Population Sector
Population
10 B 7.5 B 5 B 2.5 B
0
1900 1930 1960 1990 2020 2050 2080
Time (Year)
P eopl e
Population : Base Run
Population : Calibration\2009_03_09_Calibration
- in red – historical data
- in blue – FeliX model Base Run
Population Sector
Population 0 to 14
2 B 1.5 B 1 B 500 M
0 1900 1930 1960 1990 2020 2050 2080 Time (Year)
P eopl e
Population 0 to 14 : Base Run
Population 0 to 14 : Calibration\2009_03_09_Calibration
- in red – historical data
- in blue – FeliX model Base Run
Population Sector
Population 15 to 64
6 B 4.5 B 3 B 1.5 B
0 1900 1930 1960 1990 2020 2050 2080 Time (Year)
P eopl e
Population 15 to 64 : Base Run
Population 15 to 64 : Calibration\2009_03_09_Calibration
- in red – historical data
- in blue – FeliX model Base Run
Population Sector
Population 65 Plus
1 B 750 M 500 M 250 M
0 1900 1930 1960 1990 2020 2050 2080 Time (Year)
P eopl e
Population 65 Plus : Base Run
Population 65 Plus : Calibration\2009_03_09_Calibration
- in red – historical data
- in blue – FeliX model Base Run
Population Sector
Births Rate
200 M 150 M 100 M 50 M
0
1900 1930 1960 1990 2020 2050 2080
Time (Year)
P er son/ Y ear
Births Rate : Base Run
Births Rate : Calibration\2009_03_09_Calibration
- in red – historical data
- in blue – FeliX model Base Run
Population Sector
Total Fertility
6 4.5 3 1.5
0 1900 1930 1960 1990 2020 2050 2080
Time (Year)
D mn l
Total Fertility : Base Run
Total Fertility : Calibration\2009_03_09_Calibration
- in red – historical data
- in blue – FeliX model Base Run
Population Sector
Life Expectancy
100 75 50 25
0 1900 1930 1960 1990 2020 2050 2080 Time (Year)
Y ear
Life Expectancy : Base Run
Life Expectancy : Calibration\2009_03_09_Calibration
- in red – historical data
- in blue – FeliX model Base Run
Energy Sector
Energy Demand
20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000
0 1900 1930 1960 1990 2020 2050 2080 Time (Year)
M toe/ Y ear
Energy Demand : Base Run
Energy Demand : Calibration\2009_03_09_Calibration
- in red – historical data
- in blue – FeliX model Base Run
Energy Sector
Oil Production
6,000 4,500 3,000 1,500
0 1900 1930 1960 1990 2020 2050 2080 Time (Year)
M toe/ Y ear
Oil Production : Base Run
Oil Production : Calibration\2009_03_09_Calibration
- in red – historical data
- in blue – FeliX model Base Run
Energy Sector
Coal Production
4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000
0 1900 1930 1960 1990 2020 2050 2080 Time (Year)
M toe/ Y ear
Coal Production : Base Run
Coal Production : Calibration\2009_03_09_Calibration
- in red – historical data
- in blue – FeliX model Base Run
Energy Sector
Gas Production
6,000 4,500 3,000 1,500
0 1900 1930 1960 1990 2020 2050 2080 Time (Year)
M toe/ Y ear
Gas Production : Base Run
Gas Production : Calibration\2009_03_09_Calibration
- in red – historical data
- in blue – FeliX model Base Run
Energy Sector
CO2 Emission from Oil
4 B 3 B 2 B 1 B
0 1900 1930 1960 1990 2020 2050 2080 Time (Year)
TonC /Y ear
CO2 Emission from Oil : Base Run
CO2 Emission from Oil : Calibration\2009_03_09_Calibration
- in red – historical data
- in blue – FeliX model Base Run
Carbon Cycle Sector
CO2 Emission from Coal
4 B 3 B 2 B 1 B
0 1900 1930 1960 1990 2020 2050 2080 Time (Year)
TonC /Y ear
CO2 Emission from Coal : Base Run
CO2 Emission from Coal : Calibration\2009_03_09_Calibration
- in red – historical data
- in blue – FeliX model Base Run
Carbon Cycle Sector
CO2 Emission from Gas
4 B 3 B 2 B 1 B
0 1900 1930 1960 1990 2020 2050 2080 Time (Year)
TonC /Y ear
CO2 Emission from Gas : Base Run
CO2 Emission from Gas : Calibration\2009_03_09_Calibration
- in red – historical data
- in blue – FeliX model Base Run
Carbon Cycle Sector
Total CO2 Emission
10 B 7.5 B 5 B 2.5 B
0 1900 1930 1960 1990 2020 2050 2080 Time (Year)
TonC /Y ear
Total CO2 Emission : Base Run
Total CO2 Emission : Calibration\2009_03_09_Calibration
- in red – historical data
- in blue – FeliX model Base Run
Land Use Sector
Agriculture Land
4e+013 3e+013 2e+013 1e+013
0 1900 1930 1960 1990 2020 2050 2080 Time (Year)
m* m
Agriculture Land : Base Run
Agriculture Land : Calibration\2009_03_09_Calibration
- in red – historical data
- in blue – FeliX model Base Run
Land Use Sector
Other Land
4e+013 3.5e+013 3e+013 2.5e+013
2e+013
1900 1930 1960 1990 2020 2050 2080 Time (Year)
m *m
Other Land : Base Run
Other Land : Calibration\2009_03_09_Calibration
- in red – historical data
- in blue – FeliX model Base Run
Land Use Sector
Forest Land
6e+013 5.5e+013 5e+013 4.5e+013
4e+013
1900 1930 1960 1990 2020 2050 2080 Time (Year)
m *m
Forest Land : Base Run
Forest Land : Calibration\2009_03_09_Calibration
- in red – historical data
- in blue – FeliX model Base Run
Energy Scenario
Wind Energy Production
20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000
02000 2015 2030 2045 2060 2075 2090 Time (Year)
Mtoe/Year
Wind Energy Production : Scenario 1 Wind Energy Production : Base Run
Food Potential Agriculture Land
2 B 1.75 B 1.5 B 1.25 B
1 B
2000 2015 2030 2045 2060 2075 2090
Time (Year)
ha
Food Potential Agriculture Land : Scenario 1 Food Potential Agriculture Land : Base Run
Total CO2 Emission
10 B 7.5 B 5 B 2.5 B
02000 2015 2030 2045 2060 2075 2090
Time (Year)
TonC/Year
Total CO2 Emission : Scenario 1 Total CO2 Emission : Base Run
