Keywan Riahi
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Graz University of Technology
riahi@iiasa.ac.at
IIASA 40th Anniversary Conference, Vienna, 24-26 October
The Next Global Energy
Transformation: Costs
and Multiple Benefits
Josè Goldemberg, Yong Ha Kim, H.E. Nguyen Thien, L. Gomez-Echeverri, Pavel Kabat, Hasan Mahmud, Kuntoro Mangkusubroto
Global Energy Assessment (GEA)
● 300 Authors
● 200 Reviewers
● Assessment of
Major energy challenges Transformation strategies Effective policies
Costs & benefits
GEA Launch Rio+20
UN General Assembly resolution 65/151
2030 Energy Goals
● Universal Access to Modern Energy
● Double Energy Efficiency Improvement
● Double Renewable Share in Final Energy
Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable
Energy Challenges
• Providing universal access to affordable clean cooking and electricity for the poor
• Improving energy security throughout the world
• Limiting air pollution and health damages from energy use
• Limiting climate change through deep cuts in GHG emissions
Global Energy Assessment (GEA, 2012)
Energy Access (2010)
People without access to electricity or clean cooking
>3 billion without access to clean cooking 1.3 billion without access to electricity
GEA: Chapter 19 (Pachauri et al, 2012)
Energy Access (2010)
People without access to electricity or clean cooking
Investments of 36-41 billion US$ per year 1 million lives saved each year
GEA: Chapter 19 (Pachauri et al, 2012)
GEA Health Assessment
Present air pollution policies to 2030
GEA: Chapter 17 (Riahi et al, 2012; Rao et al, forthcoming)
World Emissions (2030)
WHO health guidelines
Stringent pollution/access policies by 2030
2.6 million lives saved each year
GEA Health Assessment
World Emissions (2030)
GEA: Chapter 17 (Riahi et al, 2012; Rao et al, forthcoming)
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Global CO2 emissions (GtCO2)
-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40
GEA - Supply GEA - Mix GEA - Efficiency
Global CO
2Emissions
Limiting temperature change to below 2°C
Peak by 2020
reductions of 30-70% by 2050
almost zero or negative in the long term
CO2from fossil fuels & industry
GEA: Chapter 17 (Riahi et al, 2012)
2500
GEA-Efficiency
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Primary Energy, EJ per year
0 500 1000 1500 2000
Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior)
Fossil CCS (optional bridging technology) Bio-CCS & negative emissions
(long-term)
Phase-out of oil in the long term (necessary)
Coal wCCS Coal woCCS Biomass wCCS Biomass woCCS Nuclear
Gas wCCS Gas woCCS Oil
Savings Geothermal Solar Wind
Efficiency & Demand-side Focus (= high flexibility for supply)
~50% renewables by 2050
GEA: Chapter 17 (Riahi et al, 2012)
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives
Total Global Policy Costs (2010-2030)
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives
Total Global Policy Costs (2010-2030)
Energy Security
Air pollution Climate
Policy Costs and Synergistic Effects
CC AP
ES
Integrated Solutions McCollum et al, 2012 (Nature Climate Change)
Total global policy costs (percent of GDP) 2010-2030
