Water Resources Planning and Management
H.P. Nachtnebel
Dept. of Water-Atmosphere-Environment
Univ. of Natural Resources and Life Sciences hans_peter.nachtnebel@boku.ac.at
Objectives and Content
Objective
provision of methods for decision making in a complex environment
Content
steps in decision making formalisation of the process
- basics of a systems or state space approach
Organisation
(1) Integrated Water Resources Management. Concept. Scales and Principles.
(2) Systems Approach to Water Resources Modelling and Management:
(3) Economic Evaluation Techniques: Discounting techniques, indicators, evaluation of small hydropower
(4) Economic Evaluation of Flood Protection Schemes
(5) Allocation Techniques. Specific Costs, Separable Costs, Dynamic Programming (6) The Principles of Multi-criteria Evaluation and Ranking Techniques
Dominated-non-dominated solutions, preferences and their integration in the decision making process
(7) ELECTRE: Hydropower Development
(8) Compromise Solutions: Instream Water Requirements (9) Comparison of Techniques and Areas of Application (10) Transboundary Water Management:
The Danube River Case Study The Aral Sea Problem
(11) Sustainability Concepts in Water Resources Management
Organisation
(1) Integrated Water Resources Management. Concept. Scales and Principles.
Relevant Documents/Reports/Books
Global Perspective
UN World Water Development Reports (1-4)
Review of World Water Resources by Country; FAO Water Rep. No23, 2003
The Water Footprint Assessment Manual, Hoekstra AY et al, Earthscan Publ.
2011
EU Perspective:
EU Water Framework Directive (Directive 2000/60/EC)
EU Flood Risk Directive (EU-2007/60/EC)
Tools:
Managing Water Resources, Simonovic S.P., UNESCO Earthscan, 2009
Introduction to IWRM at the River Basin Level, UNESCO, 2009
Catalyzing Change: A handbook for developing IWRM and water efficiency strategy; Global Water Partnership, 2004.
Development of Water Related Goals:
A long way from Stockholm (1972) to the SDGs (2015)
The natural resources on earth, including the air, water, land, flora and fauna,… must be safeguarded for the benefit of
present and future generations through careful planning or management, as appropriate.
Development of Water Related Goals:
A long way from Stockholm (1972) to the SDGs (2015)
The natural resources on earth, including the air, water, land, flora and fauna,… must be safeguarded for the benefit of
present and future generations through careful planning or management, as appropriate.
Development of Water Related Goals:
A long way from Stockholm (1972) to the SDGs (2015)
The natural resources on earth, including the air, water, land, flora and fauna,… must be safeguarded for the benefit of
present and future generations through careful planning or management, as appropriate.
1981: International Drinking Water Decade
Development of Water Related Goals:
A long way from Stockholm (1972) to the SDGs (2015)
The natural resources on earth, including the air, water, land, flora and fauna,… must be safeguarded for the benefit of
present and future generations through careful planning or management, as appropriate.
1981: International Drinking Water Decade
1983: Brundtland Commission
Development of Water Related Goals:
A long way from Stockholm (1972) to the SDGs (2015)
The natural resources on earth, including the air, water, land, flora and fauna,… must be safeguarded for the benefit of
present and future generations through careful planning or management, as appropriate.
1981: International Drinking Water Decade
1983: Brundtland Commission
Development of Water Related Goals:
A long way from Stockholm (1972) to the SDGs (2015)
The natural resources on earth, including the air, water, land, flora and fauna,… must be safeguarded for the benefit of
present and future generations through careful planning or management, as appropriate.
1981: International Drinking Water Decade
1983: Brundtland Commission
1992: Agenda 21
1992: Dublin principles for water
Development of Water Related Goals:
A long way from Stockholm (1972) to the SDGs (2015)
The natural resources on earth, including the air, water, land, flora and fauna,… must be safeguarded for the benefit of
present and future generations through careful planning or management, as appropriate.
1981: International Drinking Water Decade
1983: Brundtland Commission
Development of Water Related Goals:
A long way from Stockholm (1972) to the SDGs (2015)
The natural resources on earth, including the air, water, land, flora and fauna,… must be safeguarded for the benefit of
present and future generations through careful planning or management, as appropriate.
1981: International Drinking Water Decade
1983: Brundtland Commission
1992: Agenda 21
1992: Dublin principles for water
1996: GWP and WWC
2012: Rio+20:
Development of Water Related Goals:
A long way from Stockholm (1972) to the SDGs (2015)
The natural resources on earth, including the air, water, land, flora and fauna,… must be safeguarded for the benefit of
present and future generations through careful planning or management, as appropriate.
1981: International Drinking Water Decade
1983: Brundtland Commission
1992: Agenda 21
1992: Dublin principles for water
Water and SDGs
www.worldbank.org
Critical Review of SDGs
e.g. Goal 6: Ensure Availability and Sustainable Management of Water and Sanitation for all
6.1 By 2030, achieve universal and equitable access to safe and affordable drinking water for all
6.2 By 2030, achieve access to adequate and equitable sanitation and hygiene for all
6.3 By 2030, improve water quality by reducing pollution, eliminating dumping and minimizing release of hazardous chemicals and materials, halving the proportion of untreated wastewater
6.4 By 2030, substantially increase water-use efficiency across all sectors and ensure sustainable withdrawals and supply of freshwater
6.5 By 2030, implement integrated water resources management at all levels, including through transboundary cooperation as appropriate
6.6 By 2020, protect and restore water-related ecosystems, including mountains, forests, wetlands, rivers, aquifers and lakes
6.a By 2030, expand international cooperation and capacity-building
6.b Support and strengthen the participation of local communities in improving water and sanitation management
General Strategies for Water Resources Management
Perspectives and policies in holistic water management
Integrated water management
Water-Food-Energy Nexus
EU directives
Water Framework Directive
Flood Risk Directive
Integrated Water Management (1) Goals
Improve economic efficiency
Improve environmental state
Improve social equity
Integrated Water Management: (2) Sectors
www.un.org/waterforlifedecade
The Water-Energy-Food Cycle
Integrated Water Management: (3) Process
www.gwp.org
Tasks of Water Resources Management
Allocation of resources under a given set of objectives and criteria
Efficient utilisation of water resources
Environmental preservations
Avoid conflicts among different users
Avoid conflicts among different interest groups
Avoid conflicts among humans and nature
Avoid conflicts among countries
Contribution to a sustainable development
Two EU Water Directives
•
The EU Water Framework Directive (EU-WFD) (Directive 2000/60/EC)
achieve good ecological and chemical status of all water bodies
•
EU Flood Risk Directive (EU-FRD) (EU-2007/60/EC)
reduce existing flood risk and avoid the emergence of future flood risks
EU-WFD
< 2000 water resources are at risk due to increasing demand and increasing load
Need for policy integration: integration of water management
policies into Community policy areas (energy, transport, agriculture, fisheries, regional policy and tourism )
Goals and programs were jointly elaborated by member states and NGOs
EU-WFD
< 2000 water resources are at risk due to increasing demand and increasing load
Need for policy integration: integration of water management policies into Community policy areas (energy, transport, agriculture, fisheries, regional policy and tourism )
Goals and programs were jointly elaborated by member states and NGOs Goals:
achieve good ecological and chemical status in all water bodies including coastal waters
Reduce and avoid hazardous substances
EU-WFD
< 2000 water resources are at risk due to increasing demand and increasing load
Need for policy integration: integration of water management policies into Community policy areas (energy, transport, agriculture, fisheries, regional policy and tourism )
Goals and programs were jointly elaborated by member states and NGOs Goals:
achieve good ecological and chemical status in all water bodies including coastal waters
Reduce and avoid hazardous substances Approach and principles:
basin wide water management plans, transparent and public participation
EU-WFD
Methodology:
Classification of water bodies
Identification of indicators (water quality, biology, morphology,..)
Evidence based reporting and assessment of status Implementation
Strict time schedule
The EU-WFD Cycle
EU-FRD
< 2007: recognition that flood damages increase substantially although huge investments in flood protection were made
Upstream- downstream problems
Increasing pressure on riverine water bodies
Land development and climate change have impact on flood events
EU-FRD
< 2007: recognition that flood damages increase substantially although huge investments in flood protection were made
Upstream- downstream problems
Increasing pressure on riverine water bodies
Land development and climate change have impact on flood events
Goals
reduce the recent risk of adverse consequences, especially for
human health and life, the environment, cultural heritage, economic activity
Avoid the emergence of new flood risks
EU-FRD
Approach and principles:
Public involvement
Transparency, documentation and reporting, updating
EU-FRD
Approach and principles:
Public involvement
Transparency, documentation and reporting, updating
Methodology:
Use WFD experiences and information, elaborate hazard maps, assess vulnerability and risks, risk maps
Identify APSFR (areas of potential significant flood risk)
Establish flood risk management plans at the basin scale
EU-FRD
Approach and principles:
Public involvement
Transparency, documentation and reporting, updating
Methodology:
Use WFD experiences and information, elaborate hazard maps, assess vulnerability and risks, risk maps
Identify APSFR (areas of potential significant flood risk)
Establish flood risk management plans at the basin scale
Implementation:
Strict time schedule
Implement measures according to flood risk management plans
The EU-FRD Schedule
Approach to Water Resources Modelling and Management
Formalization of the strategies
How can we model decisions ?
How can we evaluate decisions ?
General Steps in Decision Making Processes
Definition of the problem and general objectives
Definition of the Problem and General Objectives
Example:
Two countries along a river. The upstream country has built several reservoirs using the water for power generation (winter), while the downstream country uses water for irrigation (summer). Upstream country releases water without the interests of the downstream user.
The downstream country is rich in oil and gas resources.
Definition of the Problem and General Objectives
Example:
Two countries along a river. The upstream country has built several reservoirs using the water for power generation (winter), while the downstream country uses water for irrigation (summer). Upstream country releases water without the interests of the downstream user.
The downstream country is rich in oil and gas resources.
Problem: The downstream country demands for consideration of its interests.
General objectives: A water management strategy should be found which considers the interests of both users.
Goals and Objectives
Objectives indicate the directions of state change of a system desired by the decision maker(s)
and / or
describe the directions of the output function
There are three possible ways to improve an objective:
Examples
Examples of objectives are optimization of economic payoff, environmental quality, water supply, water quality and mitigation of natural and man-made hazards.
An example of the third situation would be a farmer
wishing to maintain a constant supply of water to a field
where both an excess or deficient amount of water will
adversely affect output.
Criteria
criteria are based on standards, rules or tests on which judgements or decisions can be based.
One or several criteria may characterise an objective.
Additionally a “measurable unit” should be allocated to
each criterion
General Steps in Decision Making Processes
Definition of the problem and general objectives
Describing the state of the system
Collection of data and information (hard, soft)
Describing the State:
Collection of Data (hard, soft)
Water availability in time for each country Demand of each country
Water use efficiency and productivity Environmental and social state
………
General Steps in Decision Making Processes
Definition of the problem and general objectives
Describing the state of the system
Collection of data and information (hard, soft)
Specification of objectives (sub-objectives), criteria and alternative actions (alternatives), and constraints
Specification of Objectives (sub-objectives), Criteria, Alternative Actions and Constraints
The benefits from water resources utilisation should be equally shared and any damages to the society and the environment should be
minimised in each country.
Indicators will be net benefits (€) per year while the environmental impacts will be characterised verbally (very strong-strong-medium- acceptable-negligible)
Identification of Alternative Actions
(1) Modification of the reservoir operation rules
(2) Building of reservoirs in the downstream country
(3) The downstream country will deliver gas for water to the upstream country
(4) Downstream country will put political pressure on the upstream country
…….
General Steps in Decision Making Processes
Definition of the problem and general objectives
Describing the state of the system
Collection of data and information (hard, soft)
Specification of objectives (sub-objectives), criteria and alternative actions (alternatives), and constraints
Impact assessment (linking decisions with outcomes)
Analytical Approach and Impact Assessment (Linking Decisions With Outcomes)
Several approaches are applied.
Examples:
DPSIR
State Space Approach (classical scientific approach)
Decisions (Decision Space)
Decisions are described by variables characterising physical aspects
Design of a hp station (where, type, the size, the operation,….)
These variables are bounded
due to physical limitations, technological limits,
financial resources,…..
Objectives (Objective Space)
The outputs
Energy generation in kWh, crop production in t/ha, level of flood protection,….
are assessed with respect to the defined objectives
Net benefits, environmental impacts, social benefts
Assessment of Consequences
Economic
Social objectives
Ecological
have to be simultaneously addressed
General Steps in Decision Making Processes
Definition of the problem and general objectives
Describing the state of the system
Collection of data and information (hard, soft)
Specification of objectives (sub-objectives), criteria and alternative actions (alternatives), and constraints
Impact assessment (linking decisions with outcomes)
Identification of societal preferences
Identification of Societal Preferences
A very difficult step
it should be based on governmental declarations,
development plans, international and national standards
Sometimes, neighbouring countries have different
objectives and preferences (e.g. Case study Gabcikovo)
General Steps in Decision Making Processes
Definition of the problem and general objectives
Describing the state of the system
Collection of data and information (hard, soft)
Specification of objectives (sub-objectives), criteria and alternative actions (alternatives), and constraints
Impact assessment (linking decisions with outcomes)
Identification of societal preferences
Selection of a decision making technique
Decision Making Techniques
Single vs. Multi-objective techniques
Single vs. Multiple decision makers
Single or iterative decision making
General Steps in Decision Making Processes
Definition of the problem and general objectives
Describing the state of the system
Collection of data and information (hard, soft)
Specification of objectives (sub-objectives), criteria and alternative actions (alternatives), and constraints
Impact assessment (linking decisions with outcomes)
Identification of societal preferences
Selection of a decision making technique
Transforming the impact table into an efficiency table
Transforming the Impact Table into an Efficiency Table
The impact table quantifies the impacts of each alternatives on all the criteria
alternatives A1 A2 A3 Aj An
criteria C1
C2
C3
General Steps in Decision Making Processes
Definition of the problem and general objectives
Describing the state of the system
Collection of data and information (hard, soft)
Specification of objectives (sub-objectives), criteria and alternative actions (alternatives), and constraints
Impact assessment (linking decisions with outcomes)
Identification of societal preferences
Selection of a decision making technique
Transforming the impact table into an efficiency table
Ranking of alternatives
Ranking of Alternatives
Requires preferences of each partner and trade-offs
outranking techniques (for discrete alternatives only)
distance-based techniques and
value- or utility-based techniques.
General Steps in Decision Making Processes
Definition of the problem and general objectives
Describing the state of the system
Collection of data and information (hard, soft)
Specification of objectives (sub-objectives), criteria and alternative actions (alternatives), and constraints
Impact assessment (linking decisions with outcomes)
Identification of societal preferences
Selection of a decision making technique
Transforming the impact table into an efficiency table
Ranking of alternatives
Sensitivity analysis
Sensitivity Analysis
Several sources of uncertainties are inherent to the whole process
deficits and errors in the data base randomness in natural processes uncertainties in models
imprecision in knowledge of societal preferences
General Steps in Decision Making Processes
Definition of the problem and general objectives
Describing the state of the system
Collection of data and information (hard, soft)
Specification of objectives (sub-objectives), criteria and alternative actions (alternatives), and constraints
Impact assessment (linking decisions with outcomes)
Identification of societal preferences
Selection of a decision making technique
Transforming the impact table into an efficiency table
Ranking of alternatives
Sensitivity analysis
Critical review of the process, preferences and outcomes
Analytical Approach and Impact Assessment (Linking Decisions With Outcomes)
Several approaches are applied.
Examples:
DPSIR
State Space Approach (classical scientific approach)
DPSIR Approach
Poor growing population
The Elements: (1) Drivers
Drivers are forces that give the initial push to an entire chain of events
Examples:
Population (number, age structure, education levels, ...)
Transport (persons, goods; road, water, air, off-road)
DPSIR Approach
Increasing water demand
The Elements: (2) Pressures
different human activities create “pressures” on the environment, resulting from production or consumption processes.
(after: KRISTENSEN; 2004):
excessive use of environmental resources
DPSIR Approach
Limited availability of water
The Elements: (3) State
The state of the environment is affected as a result of the pressures. The state is mostly specified by various physical, chemical and biological
Examples Air quality (national, regional, local, ...)
Water quality (rivers, lakes, seas, coastal zones, ...)
DPSIR Approach
Decrease in groundwater
Increase in agriculture
The Elements: (4) Impacts
changes in the state have environmental or economic
‘impacts’
Examples:
Costs for cleaning up the environment
Losses in habitats, species,
DPSIR Approach
Pricing of water
Building of reservoirs
The Elements: (5) Responses
Responses are strategies to mitigate/compensate adverse impacts
Responses are strategies to maintain a resource/ to
maximize the outcome….
State Space Approach: The 5 Elements
Input Output State
Output function
State transition function
RESERVOIR
INPUT at time t OUTPUT at time t+1 Discharge QIN(t) Discharge QOUT(t+1)
Temperature T(t) STATE S(t) Hydropower HP(t+1)
Pollution X(t) Pollution XOUT(t+1)
DECISIONS D(t) Reservoir Operation Rule
STATE of the System S(t)
Water Storage V(t)
Water Quality WQ(t) Water Temperature RT(t)
Input
Controlled D:
costs allocated for construction, operation and maintenance, (operation rule)
uncontrolled I:
precipitation (streamflows), depending on wheather, if the watershed response is included in the model or not
Output O
desirable:
water utilization (benefits)
undesirable:
water deficiencies, floods (losses)
neutral:
system outflow, seepage, percolation, evaporation etc.
State S
Examples:
reservoir volumes at time t or in discrete time S(t) from t until t + t soil moisture in time t
vegetation cover in time t (winter, summer)
System parameters:
reservoir capacities Smax, Smin,
physical catchment parameter like slopes, soils, runoff coefficient,
State Transition Function G(.)
S(t+t)= G(S(t); I(t), D(t))
The new state is exclusively dependent on the previous state and the input (and some parameters like Smin, Smax, etc
An output variable must not be included !!!!
Output Function F(.)
relates the output O (it is used as a vector) to the state S and the Input I:
O(t)= F(S(t); I(t), D(t))
The Output is only dependent on the state S(t) and the input I(t) and D(t)
State Transition Function G(.)
S(t+t)= G(S(t); I(t), D(t))
The state transition function is exclusively dependent on the previous state and the input
Example: The state transition function is defined by the water balance equation
S(t+t)=S(t) + Qin(t)*t - Qou(t)*t Qout(t) = F(S(t); Qin(t))
Example: Reservoir Operation Rule
A reservoir serves flood protection and irrigation
Given: Smax, Smin and Qin(t) and S(t=0)
Define the operation rule that:
Qo(t) < Qo,max flood protection Qo(t) > Qe irrigation
Reservoir Operation Rule (Decision)
This rule is defined by
Qo(t)=Min{Max[Qin(t), Qe], Qo,max}
can be kept as long as Smin<S(t)<Smax
Otherwise:
when S(t)>Smax then Qo(t)=Qin(t) when S(t)<Smin then Qo(t)=Qin(t)
Formulation of the State Transition Function
Starting with Qo(t)=Min{Max[Qin(t), Qe], Qo,max}
the water balance equation can be formulated S’(t+t) =S(t)+[Qin(t)-Qo(t)]*t= S(t)+ [Qin(t)- Min{Max[Qin(t), Qe], Qo,max}]*t
It must be ensured that Smin<S(t+t)<Smax) and the
Formulation of the Output Function
Qo(t)=S(t)-S(t+t) + Qin (t)*t = F{S(t), G[S(t), I(t)]}
Summary and Conclusions
