Fossil Fuel Emission (GtC/y

GCP-Global Carbon Budget team: Pep Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Thomas Conway, Christopher B. Field, Corinne Le Quéré, Richard A. Houghton, Gregg Marland, Michael R. Raupach

Last update:

26 September 2008

Carbon Carbon

Budget Budget

2007 2007

1. Atmospheric CO₂ Concentration

2. CO₂ Emissions from Fossil Fuel and Cement 3. Drivers of Fossil Fuel Emissions

4. CO₂ Emissions from Land Use Change 5. Natural CO₂ Sinks

6. Summary of the Global Carbon Budget

Outline

1.

Atmospheric CO ₂ Concentration

2000 - 2007: 2.0 ppm y

2007: 2.2 ppm y

1970 – 1979: 1.3 ppm y^-1 1980 – 1989: 1.6 ppm y¹ 1990 – 1999: 1.5 ppm y^-1

Year 2007 Atmospheric CO₂

concentration:

383 ppm

37% above pre-industrial

Atmospheric CO

Concentration

Data Source: Pieter Tans and Thomas Conway, NOAA/ESRL

2.

Emissions from Fossil Fuel

and Cement

Emissions from Fossil Fuel + Cement

Data Source: G. Marland, T.A. Boden, R.J. Andres, and J. Gregg at CDIAC

1990 - 1999: 0.9% y

2000 - 2007: 3.5% y

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Fossil Fuel Emission (GtC/y

Emissions

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

2007

8.5 Pg C

5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Fossil Fuel Emission (GtC/y)

CDIAC IEAall A1B(Av) A1FI(Av) A1T(Av) A2(Av) B1(Av) B2(Av)

Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios

Raupach et al 2007, PNAS (updated)

Regional Shift in Emissions Share

Percentage of Global Annual Emissions

Kyoto

Reference Year

FCCC

Kyoto Protocol Adopted

Kyoto Protocol Enter into Force

Current

J. Gregg and G. Marland, 2008, personal communication

62%

57^%

49.7%

47%

38^%

43% 50.3%

53%

Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS

Cumulative Emissions [1751-2004]

Flux in 2004

Flux Growth in 2004

Population in 2004

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100% D3-Least Developed Countries

India

D2-Developing Countries

China

FSU D1-Developed Countries Japan

EU USA

Regional Share of Fossil Fuel Emissions

3.

Drivers of fossil fuel emissions

Carbon Intensity of the Global Economy

Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

Carbon intensity (KgC/US$)

Kg Carbon Emitted to Produce 1 $ of Wealth

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006

Photo: CSIRO

Raupach et al 2007, PNAS

0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5

1980 0.5

0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5

1980

World

0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 F (emissions)

P (population) g = G/P

h = F/G

Factor (relative to 1990)

Emissions Population

Wealth = per capita GDP Carbon intensity of GDP

Drivers of Anthropogenic Emissions

Regional Emission Pathways

C emissions Population

C Intensity Developed Countries (-)

Developing Countries Least Developed Countries Wealth per capita

Raupach et al 2007, PNAS

4.

Emissions from Land Use Change

Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS; FAO-Global Resources Assessment 2005

Tropical Americas 0.6 Pg C y

Tropical Asia 0.6 Pg C y

Tropical Africa 0.3 Pg C y

2000-2007

Tropical deforestation

13 Million hectares each year Carbon Emissions from Land Use Change

1.5 Pg C y

Borneo, Courtesy: Viktor Boehm

[2007-Total Anthropogenic Emissions:8.5+1.5 = 10 Pg]

R.A. Houghton, unpublished

Carbon Emissions from Tropical Deforestation

Pg C yr-1

0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80

1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Africa

Latin America S. & SE Asia

Historical Emissions from Land Use Change

SUM

2000-2007

1.5 Pg C y^-1

(16% total emissions)

Canadell, Raupach, Houghton, 2008, Biogeosciences, submitted

Regional Share of Emissions from Land Use Change

5.

Natural CO ₂ sinks

Fate of Anthropogenic CO

Emissions

Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS (updated)

1.5 Pg C y^-1

+

7.5 Pg C y^-1

Atmosphere 46%

4.2 Pg y^-1

Land 29%

2.6 Pg y^-1

Oceans 26%

2.3 Pg y^-1

Climate Change at 55% Discount

Natural CO₂ sinks absorb 55% of all anthropogenic carbon

emissions slowing down climate change significantly.

They are in effect a huge subsidy to the global economy worth half a trillion US$ annually if an

equivalent sink had to be created using other climate mitigation

options (based on the cost of carbon in the EU-ETS).

1. The rate of CO

emissions.

2. The rate of CO

uptake and ultimately the total amount of C that can be stored by land and oceans:

– Land: CO₂ fertilization effect, soil respiration, N deposition fertilization, forest regrowth, woody encroachment, …

– Oceans: CO₂ solubility (temperature, salinity),, ocean currents, stratification, winds, biological activity,

acidification, …

Factors that Influence the Airborne Fraction

Springer; Gruber et al. 2004, Island Press

% CO 2Emissions in Atmosphere

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

2006

Decline in the Efficiency of CO

Natural Sinks

Fraction of all anthropogenic emissions that stay in the atmosphere

Emissions 1 tCO₂

400Kg stay

Emissions 1 tCO₂

450Kg stay

Efficiency of Natural Sinks Land Fraction

Ocean Fraction

Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

• Part of the decline is attributed to up to a 30% decrease in the efficiency of the Southern Ocean sink over the last 20 years.

• This sink removes annually 0.7 Pg of anthropogenic carbon.

• The decline is attributed to the strengthening of the winds around Antarctica which enhances

ventilation of natural carbon-rich deep waters.

• The strengthening of the winds is attributed to global warming and the ozone hole.

Causes of the Declined in the Efficiency of the Ocean Sink

Le Quéré et al. 2007, Science

Credit: N.Metzl, August 2000, oceanographic cruise OISO-5

6.

Summary

of the global carbon budget

deforestation tropics extra-tropics

1.5

2000-2007

CO 2flux (Pg C y-1 ) SinkSource

Time (y)

Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget

Global Carbon Project (2008)

deforestation fossil fuel emissions

7.5 1.5

2000-2007

CO 2flux (Pg C y-1 ) SinkSource

Time (y)

Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget

Global Carbon Project (2008)

fossil fuel emissions

deforestation

7.5 1.5

2000-2007

CO 2flux (Pg C y-1 ) SinkSource

Time (y)

Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget

Global Carbon Project (2008)

fossil fuel emissions

deforestation

7.5 1.5 4.2

2000-2007

CO 2flux (Pg C y-1 ) SinkSource

Time (y)

atmospheric CO₂

Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget

Global Carbon Project (2008)

atmospheric CO₂ fossil fuel emissions

deforestation

ocean

7.5 1.5 4.2

2.3

CO 2flux (Pg C y-1 ) SinkSource

Time (y)

2000-2007

Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget

Global Carbon Project (2008)

atmospheric CO₂

ocean land fossil fuel emissions

deforestation

7.5 1.5 4.2

2.3 2.6

2000-2007

CO 2flux (Pg C y-1 ) SinkSource

Time (y)

Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget

Global Carbon Project (2008)

Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS (updated to 2007)

Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget

65%

Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

17%

18%

2000 - 2007: 2.0 ppm y

1970 – 1979: 1.3 ppm y^-1 1980 – 1989: 1.6 ppm y¹ 1990 – 1999: 1.5 ppm y^-1

Drivers of Accelerating Atmospheric CO

To:

• Economic growth

• Carbon intensity

• Efficiency of natural sinks

(calculations based on the period 2000-2006)

• Anthropogenic CO₂ emissions are growing x4 faster since 2000 than during the previous decade, and above the worst case emission scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

• The carbon intensity of the world’s economy is improving slower than previous decades.

• Less Developed Countries are now emitting more carbon than Developed Countries.

Conclusions (i)

• The efficiency of natural sinks has decreased by 5% over the last 50 years (and will continue to do so in the future), implying that the longer it takes to begin reducing

emissions significantly, the larger the cuts needed to stabilize atmospheric CO₂.

• All these changes have led to an acceleration of

atmospheric CO₂ growth 33% faster since 2000 than in the previous two decades, implying a stronger climate forcing and sooner than expected.

Conclusions (ii)

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