Bern, Switzerland Bern, Switzerland 29 29
ththSeptember 2005 September 2005
NoNoéé van van HulstHulst Director Director Office of Long
Office of Long--Term CoTerm Co--operation and Policy Analysisoperation and Policy Analysis International Energy Agency, Paris
International Energy Agency, Paris
Security of Supply and Climate Change Security of Supply and Climate Change
Challenges for National and International Energy Policy Challenges for National and International Energy Policy
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
Jul- 04
Aug- 04
Sep- 04
Oct- 04
Nov- 04
Dec- 04
Jan- 05
Feb- 05
Mar- 05
Apr- 05
May- 05
Jun- 05
Jul- 05
Aug- 05
Sep- 05 US$/Bbl
Brent Dated WT I Cushing M 1(Adj) Dubai M 1(Adj)
Spot Benchmark Crude Prices Spot Benchmark Crude Prices
Record Highs Record Highs
Surplus Oil Refining Capacity Surplus Oil Refining Capacity
Nearly Disappeared Nearly Disappeared
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03
Global Refining Capacity
World Petroleum Supply World Petroleum
Demand Mb/d
Date
Global CO
Global CO
22Emissions, 1971 Emissions, 1971 - - 2030 2030
CO2 emissions will increase fastest in developing countries, overtaking OECD in the 2020s
0 4 000 8 000 12 000 16 000 20 000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mt of CO2
OECD Transition economies Developing countries
Global Energy Security Threats Global Energy Security Threats
Across the world
Across the world -- Producers and ConsumersProducers and Consumers
Russia Reform Russia Reform US
Refinery Bottlenecks
/Hurricanes US
Refinery Bottlenecks
/Hurricanes
Norway Strikes Norway
Strikes Europe
Fuel Price protests Europe Fuel Price
protests Japan
Nuclear Accidents
Japan Nuclear Accidents Iraq
Sabotage Iraq Sabotage Saudi
Terrorism Saudi Terrorism
Nigeria Civil Unrest
Nigeria Civil Unrest Venezuela
Political Unrest Venezuela
Political Unrest
Indonesia Political
Unrest Indonesia
Political Unrest China
Demand China Demand
Total IEA Initial Response
by Measure
1,972 kbd 58 kbd 70 kbd
Stockdraw
Demand Restraint
Increased Crude Production
Total IEA Stock Release
by product
Middle Distillates
Motor Gasoline
19%
Crude Oil Other IEA 15%
Crude Oil US
50%
Fuel Oil
2% 14%
IEA Response, September 2005
2, 100 kbd
(Hurricane Katrina)
IEA Ministerial Meeting 2005 IEA Ministerial Meeting 2005
“`The IEA need to Develop strategies for a clean, clever and competitive energy future”
• R&D cleaner combustion technologies and carbon capture and storage
• Improved investment environment
• Further work on economic growth and CO2 reduction
• Energy Market Transparency and analysis
• Engagement with key Non-Members
• Energy efficiency:
•transport
•building sectors
G8 Gleneagles plan of Action 2005 G8 Gleneagles plan of Action 2005
Climate Change, Clean Energy and Sustainable Development Climate Change, Clean Energy and Sustainable Development
Energy Efficiency
• Buildings
• Appliances
•Vehicle standards
• Industry assessment Cleaner Energy
• Cleaner fossil fuels
• Clean coal technologies
• Carbon sequestration
• Renewables
• Hydrogen
30 years of 30 years of
Energy Savings
Energy Savings
Energy Demand and Savings Energy Demand and Savings
IEA IEA - - 11 11
Without energy savings achieved since 1973 energy demand in 1998 would have been 50% higher, but…
Actual energy use
Additional energy use without
savings
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997
exajoules
50%
World Primary Energy Demand in World Primary Energy Demand in Reference & Alternative Scenarios Reference & Alternative Scenarios
Coal demand falls most, partially offset by more use of renewables
2 000 1 000 10 000 11 000 12 000 13 000 14 000 15 000 16 000 17 000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Mtoe
Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Renewables
Alternative Scenario Reference Scenario
0
- -
≈
OECD CO
OECD CO
22Emissions in the Reference Emissions in the Reference and Alternative Scenarios
and Alternative Scenarios
OECD CO2 emissions peak around 2020 – 25% higher than in 1990
Alternative Scenario 11 000
12 000 13 000 14 000 15 000 16 000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mt of CO2
Reference Scenario
Towards and Beyond the Towards and Beyond the Alternative Policy Scenario Alternative Policy Scenario
Bridging the gap between what is happening and what needs to be done
The Technology Challenge
Stabilising Greenhouse Gas Concentrations in the Atmosphere
Vehicles: Efficiency, Bio- fuels, Hydrogen Fuel Cells
Zero Net Emission Bldgs., Industrial Efficiency, CHP
Nuclear Power Generation IV
Renewable Energy Technologies
Advanced Power Grids Bio-Fuels and Power
Carbon (CO2) Sequestration
14
No single technology or policy can do it all
Different
- regions - resources - markets - preferences - scale-up - technology
requirements timing - infrastructures
Summary & Conclusions Summary & Conclusions
¾¾
Projected market trends raise serious Projected market trends raise serious concerns
concerns
zz Negative impacts on economic growthNegative impacts on economic growth
zz Increased vulnerability to supply disruptions Increased vulnerability to supply disruptions
zz Rising CORising CO22 emissions emissions
¾¾
More vigorous policies would curb rate More vigorous policies would curb rate of increase in energy demand and
of increase in energy demand and emission significantly
emission significantly
¾¾
But a truly sustainable energy system But a truly sustainable energy system will call for faster technology
will call for faster technology development & deployment development & deployment
¾¾
Urgent and decisive government action Urgent and decisive government action needed
needed
¾¾ Answers the question: how much oil and gas will Answers the question: how much oil and gas will the Middle East and North Africa export through to the Middle East and North Africa export through to
2030 ? 2030 ?
¾¾ Focuses on Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, the Focuses on Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, Egypt, Libya and Algeria
UAE, Qatar, Egypt, Libya and Algeria
¾¾ Analyses three distinct scenarios: Reference, Analyses three distinct scenarios: Reference, Deferred Investment and Alternative Policy
Deferred Investment and Alternative Policy
¾¾ Draws implications for global energy markets, Draws implications for global energy markets, international oil and gas prices and energy
international oil and gas prices and energy security
security
