Recent applications of systems analysis for achieving sustainable futures for all on a safe planet

(1)

Systems Analysis 2015 Conference, IIASA Laxenburg, Austria ― 11-13 November 2015

Nebojsa Nakicenovic

Deputy Director General

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Professor Emeritus of Energy Economics

Vienna University of Technology

Recent applications of SA for

achieving sustainable futures

(2)

Systems Analysis 2015 Conference, IIASA Laxenburg, Austria ― 11-13 November 2015

Nebojsa Nakicenovic

Deputy Director General

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Professor Emeritus of Energy Economics

Vienna University of Technology

Recent applications of SA for

achieving sustainable futures

for all on a safe planet

(3)

Nakicenovic 2015 #3

Applied Systems Analysis Howard Raiffa

How did it all begin in 1968

 Research or Training?

Research of Common Problems, Cybernetics, Institute or Center?

→ Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

because nobody will know what it means

and then we'll have a clean slate.

(4)

Professor Howard Raiffa

https://youtu.be/jwRzS-jvfkA

(5)

Nakicenovic 2015 #5

Global CO ₂ Emissions

http://www.GlobalCarbonProject.org/

(6)

Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Goal # Description Goal # Description

Goal 1 End poverty in all its forms everywhere Goal 10 Reduce inequality within and among countries Goal 2 End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and

promote sustainable agriculture Goal 11 Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable

Goal 3 Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages Goal 12 Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns Goal 4 Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote

lifelong learning opportunities for all Goal 13 Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts Goal 5 Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls Goal 14 Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine

resources for sustainable development Goal 6 Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and

sanitation for all Goal 15 Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial

ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat

desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss

Goal 7 Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern

energy for all Goal 16 Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable

development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels Goal 8 Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic

growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all Goal 17 Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the global partnership for sustainable development

Goal 9 Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation

(7)

Nakicenovic 2015 #7

Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Goal # Description Goal # Description

Goal 1 End povertyin all its forms everywhere Goal 10 Reduce inequalitywithin and among countries Goal 2 End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and

promote sustainable agriculture Goal 11 Make citiesand human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable

Goal 3 Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages Goal 12 Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns Goal 4 Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote

lifelong learning opportunities for all Goal 13 Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts Goal 5 Achieve gender equalityand empower all women and girls Goal 14 Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine

resources for sustainable development Goal 6 Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and

sanitationfor all Goal 15 Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat

desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversityloss

Goal 7 Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern

energy for all Goal 16 Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable

development, provide access to justicefor all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels Goal 8 Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic

growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all Goal 17 Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the global partnership for sustainable development

Goal 9 Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrializationand foster innovation

(8)

2030 Energy Goal

● Universal Access to Modern Energy

● Double Energy Efficiency Improvement

● Double Renewable Share in Final Energy

Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable

(9)

Nakicenovic 2015 #9

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS

IIASA Research

“Science must be at the heart of this process so as to help achieve synergies and avoid conflicts among the 17 SDGs.”

IIASA Partnerships

Nexus Solutions Partnership

The World In 2050 Initiative

(10)

(11)

Nakicenovic 2015 #12 Legitimacy of

BAU eroding

Vision:

Sustainable Future

→ Growing number of actors of change:

• green businesses

• cities

• civil society

emissions per capita 2010

(21)

Nakicenovic 0 % 20 % Cumulative Population 40 % 60 % 80 % 100 % 2015 #22

Cum ulat ive Shar e

0 % 20 % 40 % 60 % 80 % 100 %

Global Lorenz Distributions

Water per capita 2005

Calories per capita 2011

& Zimm

(22)

0 % 20 % 40 % 60 % 80 % 100 %

Cum ulat ive Shar e

0 % 20 % 40 % 60 % 80 % 100 %

Global Lorenz Distributions

Cumulative urban population

as % of largest city

(23)

Nakicenovic 2015 #24

Everything should be made as simple as possible, but

not simpler.

If you can’t explain it simply, you don’t understand it well enough.

Albert Einstein

(24)

-2 -1 0 1 2

-1 0 1 2 3

Rank

Po pu la tion (Millio n)

1 10 100 1000

1 10 100

.1

.01

Baghdad Peking

Peking

Hangchow London Tokyo Chinese Sea

AD 900

City Hierarchies (Rank Size)

(25)

Nakicenovic

-2 -1 0 1 2

-1 0 1 2 3

Rank

Po pu la tion (Millio n)

1 10 100 1000

1 10 100

.1

.01

Baghdad Peking

Peking

Hangchow London Tokyo Chinese Sea

Hangchow

Source: Gruebler et al, 2012

AD 1250

City Hierarchies (Rank Size)

(26)

-2 -1 0 1 2

-1 0 1 2 3

Rank

Po pu la tion (Millio n)

1 10 100 1000

1 10 100

.1

.01

Baghdad Peking

Peking

Hangchow London Tokyo Chinese Sea

AD 900

Peking

AD 1500

City Hierarchies (Rank Size)

(27)

Nakicenovic

-2 -1 0 1 2

-1 0 1 2 3

Rank

Po pu la tion (Millio n)

1 10 100 1000

1 10 100

.1

.01

Baghdad Peking

Peking

Hangchow London Tokyo Chinese Sea

AD 900

Source: Gruebler et al, 2012

Constantinople AD 1700

City Hierarchies (Rank Size)

(28)

-2 -1 0 1 2

-1 0 1 2 3

Rank

Po pu la tion (Millio n)

1 10 100 1000

1 10 100

.1

.01

Baghdad Peking

Peking

Hangchow London Tokyo Chinese Sea

AD 900

Peking

AD 1800

City Hierarchies (Rank Size)

(29)

Nakicenovic

-2 -1 0 1 2

-1 0 1 2 3

Rank

Po pu la tion (Millio n)

1 10 100 1000

1 10 100

.1

.01

Baghdad Peking

Peking

Hangchow London Tokyo Chinese Sea

AD 900

Source: Gruebler et al, 2012

London AD 1900

City Hierarchies (Rank Size)

(30)

-2 -1 0 1 2

-1 0 1 2 3

Rank

Po pu la tion (Millio n)

1 10 100 1000

1 10 100

.1

.01

Baghdad Peking

Peking

Hangchow London Tokyo Chinese Sea

AD 900 New York AD 1950

City Hierarchies (Rank Size)

(31)

Nakicenovic

-2 -1 0 1 2

-1 0 1 2 3

Rank

Po pu la tion (Millio n)

1 10 100 1000

1 10 100

.1

.01

Baghdad Peking

Peking

Hangchow London Tokyo Chinese Sea

AD 900

Source: Gruebler et al, 2012

Tokyo

AD 2000

City Hierarchies (Rank Size)

(32)

-2 -1 0 1 2

-1 0 1 2 3

Rank

Po pu la tion (Millio n)

1 10 100 1000

1 10 100

.1

.01

Baghdad Peking

Peking

Hangchow London Tokyo Chinese Sea

AD 900

Chinese Sea

Constantinople AD 1700

Bagdad AD 900

Peking AD 1800

Tokyo AD 2000 New York AD 1950

London AD 1900

City Hierarchies (Rank Size)

(33)

Nakicenovic 2015 #34

Historical (UN)

IIASA SRES B1 scenario

IIASA SRES B2 scenario IIASA SRES A2r

scenario

Urbanization

World

Source: Grubler, 2007

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

(34)

(35)

Nakicenovic 2015 #36

Urban Metabolism or Ecology

(36)

Brussels Urban Metabolism

(37)

Nakicenovic 2015 #38

Cumulative population in million

0 100 200 300 400 500

T F C: GJ / c a p it a

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Final Energy per Capita

Red – above country average

(38)

(39)

Nakicenovic 2015 #40

1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

K m/d a y- ca p

10,000

1,000

100

10 All modes

Buses + cars Rail

2-Wheelers

Horses

Air

TGV Railways

Waterways

France - Growth in Motorized Mobility

(pass-km per day per capita)

Source: Grübler, 1998

(40)

Price of Passenger Transport

(per pass-km-hour )

(41)

Nakicenovic 2015 #42 time

cost

performance

Benz Motorwagen (1885)

Ford Model T (1914)

Steam-powered Cugnot (1769)

transformational

disruptive

existing technology

We seek technologies that lead to

fundamentally new learning curves

Source: Steve Chu, 2013

Incremental & Disruptive Technologies

cumulative output - experience

(42)

Potential Synergies between New Energy and Transport Infrastructures

Asian “Supergrid”

Super Cables Super Cables

Power lines Power lines

Source:

MAGLEV

(43)

Nakicenovic 2015 #44

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

SOLIDS

LIQUiDS

GRIDS

GEA, 2012

GRIDS

Transformation of Energy Systems

& Kolp

(44)

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

SOLIDS

LIQUIDS

GRIDS

Transformation of Energy Systems

(45)

Nakicenovic 2015 #46

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

SOLIDS

LIQUIDS GRIDS

Transformation of Energy Systems Water Requirements

& Kolp

(46)

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives

Total Global Policy Costs (2010-2030)

Multiple Benefits of Integrated Policies

(47)

THANK YOU

WWW.IIASA.AC.AT

Recent applications of systems analysis for achieving sustainable futures for all on a safe planet

Systems Analysis 2015 Conference, IIASA Laxenburg, Austria ― 11-13 November 2015

Nebojsa Nakicenovic

Deputy Director General

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Professor Emeritus of Energy Economics

Vienna University of Technology

Recent applications of SA for

achieving sustainable futures

Systems Analysis 2015 Conference, IIASA Laxenburg, Austria ― 11-13 November 2015

Nebojsa Nakicenovic

Deputy Director General

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Professor Emeritus of Energy Economics

Vienna University of Technology

Recent applications of SA for

achieving sustainable futures

for all on a safe planet

Nakicenovic 2015 #3

Applied Systems Analysis Howard Raiffa

How did it all begin in 1968

 Research or Training?

Research of Common Problems, Cybernetics, Institute or Center?

→ Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

because nobody will know what it means

and then we'll have a clean slate.

Professor Howard Raiffa

https://youtu.be/jwRzS-jvfkA

Nakicenovic 2015 #5

Global CO 2 Emissions

http://www.GlobalCarbonProject.org/

Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Goal # Description Goal # Description

Nakicenovic 2015 #7

Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Goal # Description Goal # Description

2030 Energy Goal

● Universal Access to Modern Energy

● Double Energy Efficiency Improvement

● Double Renewable Share in Final Energy

Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable

Nakicenovic 2015 #9

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS

IIASA Research

“Science must be at the heart of this process so as to help achieve synergies and avoid conflicts among the 17 SDGs.”

IIASA Partnerships

Nexus Solutions Partnership

The World In 2050 Initiative

Nakicenovic 2015 #12 Legitimacy of

BAU eroding

Vision:

Sustainable Future

→ Growing number of actors of change:

• green businesses

• cities

• civil society

• science

• UN - governments

Sustainability Transformation

“Doing More with Less” within Planetary Boundaries

Time

T ra ns form a ti on D if fus ion

Source: WBGU, 2011

→ Increasing problem perception

→ Policy regimes

→ Values and norms

Social Contract

moral rules that govern relations among people Vision of Sustainable Future

Nakicenovic 2015 #14

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

RCP 2.6

Cumulative Carbon Emissions

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0%

20%

Global CO ₂ Emissions