Marriage and Fertility in China: A Lexis-Surface Analysis

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NOT FOR QUOTATION

WITHOUT THE PERMISSION OF THE AUTHORS

MARRIAGE A N D

FERTILITY IN

CHINA:

A LF=XISSURFACE ANALYSIS

Zeng Tz

James W. V a u p e l A n a t o l i I. Y a s h i n

October 1 9 8 5 WP-85-70

W o r k i n g P a p e r s are interim r e p o r t s on work of t h e International Institute f o r Applied Systems Analysis and have received only limited review. Views o r opinions e x p r e s s e d h e r e i n d o not necessarily r e p r e s e n t t h o s e of t h e Institute o r of i t s National Member Organizations.

INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS 2361 Laxenburg, Austria

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About the Authors

James W. Vaupel a n d Anatoli I. Yashin a r e r e s e a r c h s c h o l a r s in t h e Population Program, led by Nathan Keyfitz,

at

t h e International Institute f o r Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Laxenburg, Austria. Zeng Yi, formerly a s s o c i a t e d with East China Normal University in Shanghai, China, w a s a p a r t i c i p a n t in t h e Young Scien- t i s t Summer Program

at

IIASA. Zeng is a Ph.D. candidate in t h e Interuniversity Program in Demography, Brussels, Belgium and a visiting r e s e a r c h fellow of t h e Netherlands Interuniversity Demographic Institute. Vaupel is P r o f e s s o r of Public Affairs and Planning

at

t h e University of Minnesota, USA, and Yashin i s a s e n i o r r e s e a r c h e r

at

t h e Institute f o r Control Science, Moscow, USSR.

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Acknowledgments

W e t h a n k Nathan Keyfitz, who guided a n d e n c o u r a g e d o u r work o n s h a d e d con- t o u r maps, Bradley A. Gambill, who with Vaupel developed t h e LEXIS c o m p u t e r program. Wang Jinrong, who t y p e d t h e numerical d a t a o n t o a c o m p u t e r , a n d S u s a n n e S t o c k , who typed t h e final p a p e r .

PLEASE ADDRESS CORRESPONDENCE TO:

J.W.

Vaupel, Population P r o g r a m , I n t e r n a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e f o r Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, A-2361 Austria (until December 20, 1985) a n d Humphrey Insti- t u t e , University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota 55455, USA ( a f t e r December 20, 1985).

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Contents

Introduction

Marriage S i n c e 1950 Fertility Since 1940 Rural-Urban Differences Conclusion

-

vii

-

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MARIUAGE AND

FERTIUTY IN CHINA:

A

LEXIS-SURFACE

ANALYSIS

Zeng Tt, James W. Vaupel and Anatoli I. Yashin

Introduction

P a t t e r n s of marriage and fertility in China have changed rapidly o v e r t h e l a s t t h r e e decades. Fertility h a s dramatically declined, especially b e f o r e a g e 20 and after a g e 30. Marriage remains virtually' universal, but t h e a g e of f i r s t marriage, previously concentrated between a g e s 16 and 20, has shifted upward

to

between a g e s 20 and 25. These t r e n d s were sharply punctuated by marriage and fertility booms and slumps associated with t h e disturbances of t h e Great Leap Forward and t h e Cultural Revolution. Thus, s t r o n g a g e , period. and c o h o r t fluctuations, some t r a n s i e n t and o t h e r s persistent, i n t e r a c t t o produce

a

complex mosaic of turbulent demographic change.

c o a l e l masterfully analyzed t h e s e p a t t e r n s of change. H e r e w e supplement Coale's analysis by presenting and discussing some shaded contour maps of various s u r f a c e s of Chinese marriage and fertility r a t e s . As discussed in detail elsewhere:

,such maps permit visualization of population s u r f a c e s defined o v e r a g e and time and o f f e r a panoramic view of t h e interaction of age, period, and c o h o r t varia- tions. Because t h e use of shaded maps of population s u r f a c e s i s implicit in one of Lexis' original diagrams3 , and because t h e term Lexis s u r f a c e i s increasing being used

to

refer

to

s u r f a c e s of demographic

rates

defined o v e r a g e and time4 , t h e shaded contour maps p r e s e n t e d h e r e might b e called Lexis maps.5

An

e a r l y in- ' ~ n a l e y J. Coale, Rapid Pbpulation Changc i n China, 1962-1882, Waahington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1984.

'5.w. Vaupel, B.A. Cambill, and A.I. Yaahin, "Contour Mapa of Population Surlacea", International In- s t i t u t e for Applled Systems Analyaia, WP-85-47, August 1985; s e e also C. Caselli, J.W. Vaupel, and A.1. Yashin, 'Wortallty in Italy: Contoura of a Century of Evolution", forthcoming in Genus, 1985.

%.

^Lexis,EinLeitung i n die Theorle de+ Beu6lkerungsstatistU. Strasbourg: Truebner, 1875. and

"La representation graphique de la mortalltd au moyen de points mortuairea", AnnaLes de h o g r a p h i e Zntemationde, IV, 1880, pp. 297-324. The relevant diagram and accompanying t e x t are presented in J. and M. Dupaquier, Mstoire de La h o g r a p h i e , Peria: Perrin 1985, pp. 388-9.

%.B. Arthur and J.W. Vaupel. "Some General Relationships in Population Dynamics", PbpuLation Zn- dez, 50(2):214-226, Summer 1984.

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s t a n c e of t h e use of c o n t o u r maps (without shading) may b e found in D e l a p o r t e ' s pioneering comparison of t r e n d s in age-specific mortality rates in v a r i o u s Europe- a n c o u n t r i e s . ⁶

The d a t a u s e d to c o n s t r u c t t h e Lexis maps are f r o m China's one-per-thousand f e r t i l i t y s u r v e y c o n d u c t e d in 1 9 8 2 ; t h e total sample s i z e was a b i t m o r e t h a n o n e million. The p r i n c i p l e information g a t h e r e d in t h e s u r v e y , which c o v e r e d all of China e x c e p t T i b e t , Hongkong, a n d Taiwan, comprised d e t a i l e d m a r r i a g e a n d f e r t i l - i t y h i s t o r i e s of m o r e t h a n 300 t h o u s a n d women a g e d 15 to 67, g a t h e r e d t h r o u g h face-to-face i n t e r v i e w s a 7 This information was t h e n u s e d to r e c o n s t r u c t t h e p a t t e r n of age-specific f e r t i l i t y r a t e s in China f r o m 1940 t h r o u g h 1981 a n d t h e p a t t e r n of age-specific f i r s t - m a r r i a g e

rates

f r o m 1950 t h r o u g h 1981. F o r both f e r t i l i t y a n d f i r s t - m a r r i a g e r a t e s , a n u r b a n vs. r u r a l breakdown was also published f o r 1950 t h r o u g h 1981.'

Coale a n d s e v e r a l o t h e r a n a l y s t s g h a v e s c r u t i n i z e d t h e q u a l i t y of t h e d a t a a n d conclude t h a t t h e d a t a

are

r e a s o n a b l y r e l i a b l e a n d give a g e n e r a l l y a c c u r a t e r e p r e s e n t a t i o n of t h e evolving age-specific p a t t e r n s of Chinese m a r r i a g e a n d f e r - tility. Coale used t h e s u r v e y d a t a to c o n s t r u c t

a set

of e s t i m a t e s of age-specific p r o p o r t i o n s of women e v e r m a r r i e d . W e u s e t h e s e estimates, b u t o t h e r w i s e t h e maps we p r e s e n t are b a s e d d i r e c t l y o n t h e o r i g i n a l d a t a .

he

computer program used t o produce t h e maps was dubbed LEXIS by its designers, Bradley A.

Gambill and James W. Vaupel. For information about t h e program, which runs on an IBM PC, please w r i t e t o t h e Population Program, International I n s t i t u t e f o r Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, o r t o J.W. Vaupel. University of Mlnnesota, USA.

6 ~ . Delaporte, Evolution de l a mwtalitt? e n Europe dcpuis l'origine des statistipues de LsEtat c i v i l , Paris: Imprimerie Nationale, 1941.

7 ~ u Wang and Xiao Zhenyu, "General Introduction t o t h e National One-per-Thousand Population Sam- ple S u r v e y of Birth Rates and an Initial Analysis of t h e Data Concerned", Population a n d Econom- ics, special i s s u e 1983, pp. 3-9. See footnote 8 below.

%he data were published in 1983 in a special issue of t h e Chinese Journal Population and Econom- ics. This issue includes a preface and 27 a r t i c l e s describing various a s p e c t s of t h e s u r v e y and data. An English t r a n s l a t i o n was published a s "Analysis of China's One-per-Thousand F e r t i l i t y Sampling Survey". BeiJing: China Population Information Office, 1984.

'5. Caldwell and K. Srinlvasan, "New Data on Nuptiality and F e r t i l i t y in China". h p u l a t i o n and Dcuelopment Review 10(1):71-79, 1984; J. Banister, "Analysis of Recent Data on t h e Population of China", Population a n d Dcuelopment Review 10(2):241-271, 1984; C. Calot, "Donn6es nouvelles s u r l'evolution d6mographique chinoise: 11. L'evolution de la f6condit.6, de la nuptialitd, de leesperance de v i e a la naissance e t de la r 6 p a r t i t i o n urbaine/rurale de la population", h p u l a t i o n 39(6):1045- 62, 1984; Pi-Chao Chen, "China's Other Revolution: Findings from the One in 1,000 F e r t i l i t y Sur- vey", I n t e r n a t i o n a l Fbmily R a n n i n g Ftrspectives 10(2):48-57, 1984.

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Yamage Since 1950

Figure 1 p r e s e n t s a shaded contour map of female first-marriage r a t e s by single y e a r of a g e from 1 5 through 3 5 and by single y e a r of time f r o m 1950 through 1981. The rates a r e unconditional: t h e numerator is t h e number of women getting married, t h e denominator is t h e total number of women t h a t a g e . A s indicated in t h e key, t e n levels of m a r r i a g e r a t e s a r e distinguished, with a contour line

at

1 p e r c e n t and additional lines f r o m 2.5 p e r c e n t t o 20 p e r c e n t

at

i n t e r v a l s of 2.5 p e r - cent. Note t h a t t h e s c a l e o n t h e key refers t o t h e c o n t o u r s lines t h a t s e p a r a t e dif- f e r e n t levels of g r e y , not to t h e levels of g r e y themselves. Thus t h e lightest area on t h e map r e p r e s e n t s p e r i o d s when m a r r i a g e

rates

were less than o n e p e r c e n t , whereas t h e d a r k e s t area r e p r e s e n t s periods when m a r r i a g e

rates

exceeded twen- ty p e r c e n t . The r e c t a n g u l a r p a t t e r n s on t h e map r e s u l t from t h e n a t u r e of t h e underlying data-single y e a r of a g e and time; whatever diagonals a p p e a r

are es-

timated by t h e algorithm used in t h e computer program. The tick m a r k s on t h e

axes

are placed

at

t h e c e n t e r of t h e a p p r o p r i a t e y e a r of a g e

or

time.

In learning

to

r e a d t h e maps, i t may b e helpful

to

note t h a t more t h a n 20 p e r - cent of all 18-year-old women in 1962 and of all 23-year-old women in 1 9 8 1 got

m a r -

r i e d . A l s o note t h e t r e n d in t h e contour line t h a t

starts at

a g e 2 3 in 1 9 5 1 a n d d r i f t s upward

to

a g e 28 by 1979; a b o v e t h i s line fewer t h a n 2.5 p e r c e n t of women,

at

e a c h y e a r of a g e a n d time, g e t married.

The

most

s t r i k i n g p a t t e r n on t h e map i s t h e s h i f t upward in a g e of first marriage. That s u c h

a

s h i f t h a s o c c u r r e d i s well-known: Zhao

xuaniO ,

f o r instance, calculated a v e r a g e a g e

at

f i r s t m a r r i a g e as 19.0 in t h e 1950's. 19.8 in t h e 1960's.

21.6 in t h e 1 9 7 0 ° s , and 22.8 in 1980-82. The Lexis map in Figure 1 gives

a

r i c h r e p r e s e n t a t i o n of t h e n a t u r e of t h e shift.

I t is a p p a r e n t

f r o m

t h e map t h a t m a r r i a g e in China i s c o n c e n t r a t e d in

a

s h o r t period of age. Consider,

for

example, t h e a g e s when female f i r s t m a r r i a g e

rates

e x c e e d t e n p e r c e n t . The period of high m a r r i a g e

rates

shifted

f r o m

a g e s 1 6 through 19 in t h e e a r l y 1950's

to

a g e s 18 through 2 1 a r o u n d 1970 and

to

a g e s 20 through 2 5 a r o u n d 1980. As

a

r e s u l t of t h i s s h i f t , t h e p r o p o r t i o n of women getting married

at

a g e 17 fell from close

to

20 p e r c e n t in 1950

to

a b o u t 2 p e r c e n t a r o u n d 1980, whereas t h e p r o p o r t i o n getting m a r r i e d

at

a g e 2 3

rose

from 2 p e r c e n t

to

o v e r 20 p e r c e n t .

'O~hao Xuan, "State of Women's F i r s t Marriage in Forty-Two Years from 1940 t o 1981", PbpuLotion a n d Economics, special issue 1983, pp. 98-108.

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r i a g e had shifted upward by f o u r y e a r s o r so: b e f o r e 1970 t h e peak a g e of f i r s t marriage was under a g e 20; a f t e r 1980 t h e peak w a s r e a c h e d at a g e 23.

The m a r r i a g e rates p r e s e n t e d in Figure 1 are unconditional

rates

t h a t give t h e proportion of all women of a c e r t a i n a g e in a specified y e a r who got married.

Such rates are useful in analyzing t h e a g e p a t t e r n of marriage. F o r o t h e r pur- poses, however, i t may b e more informative t o examine conditional m a r r i a g e rates t h a t give t h e proportion of unmarried women who m a r r y . W e calculated estimates of conditional first-marriage

rates

by dividing t h e unconditional

rates

by a n esti-

mate

of t h e p r o p o r t i o n of women who were not married; w e took t h i s denominator t o b e one minus Coale's age-specific, period-specific estimate of t h e p r o p o r t i o n e v e r married. Figure 2 a p r e s e n t s a Lexis map of t h e r e s u l t s .

The map is r a t h e r noisy, presumably because of various errors and random fluctuations in t h e underlying d a t a . The noise is especially s e v e r e a f t e r a g e 30, because s o few women are unmarried and so few m a r r i a g e s o c c u r a f t e r t h i s age.

To r e d u c e t h e noise, w e smoothed t h e map o v e r a t h r e e by t h r e e square." The resulting map is p r e s e n t e d in Figure 2b.

The d a r k e s t

areas

o n t h e t w o maps r e p r e s e n t a g e s and times when more t h a n sixty p e r c e n t of t h e unmarried women got married. The tremendous s p u r t in

m a r -

r i a g e s in 1980 and 1 9 8 1 of women in t h e i r mid-twenties who had delayed m a r r i a g e i s marked by a prominent black splotch. Among t h e c o h o r t of women b o r n in 1955.

more

t h a n s i x t y p e r c e n t of t h o s e who were s t i l l unmarried in 1980 ( a t a g e 25) got m a r r i e d a n d

more

t h a n sixty p e r c e n t of t h e remainder got m a r r i e d in 1981:

more

t h a n ninety p e r c e n t of t h e women who

were

not m a r r i e d

at

t h e

start

of t h e

t w o

y e a r period were married by t h e end of it.

I t is interesting

to

follow t h e c o n t o u r line

at

t h e 1 0 p e r c e n t level. Above t h i s line,

more

t h a n

a

tenth of t h e unmarried women g e t m a r r i e d e a c h y e a r ; indeed, be-

cause

t h e 2 0 p e r c e n t and h i g h e r c o n t o u r lines r u n only

a

f e w y e a r s h i g h e r t h a n t h e 1 0 p e r c e n t line, t h e 1 0 p e r c e n t line c a n b e viewed as r e p r e s e n t i n g t h e

start

of

a

period of intense m a r r i a g e activity during which virtually all Chinese females be- come married. On Figure 2 a , t h e 1 0 p e r c e n t line

starts at

a g e 15 in 1950 a n d g r a - dually r i s e s

to

a g e 21 in 1977 b e f o r e falling off

to

a g e 1 9 in 1981. This r e c e n t de- ''we used binomial mnoothing auch t h a t each value on the L e x i s surface was replaced by a weighted average of i t s e l f and adjacent values. The value i t s e l f wan given a weight of one quarter, t h e four horizontally and v e r t i c a l l y adjacent valuee a weight of one eighth, and the four diagonally adjacent valuea a weight of one s i x t e e n t h . Along edges and in corners, the same r e l a t i v e weights were ap- plied t o the available data values, auch t h a t the sum of the weights totalled one. For further de- t a i l s , e e e Vaupel, Gambill, and Yashin op. c i t .

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cline c a n b e a t t r i b u t e d t o t h e N e w Marriage Law, which was announced in 1980 and officially e n f o r c e d from J a n u a r y 1, 1981. E a r l i e r , local a u t h o r i t i e s placed various r e s t r i c t i o n s on t h e m a r r i a g e of females b e f o r e a g e 23. The new law permits women t o marry after a g e 20.

Comparison of Figures 1 and 2 r e v e a l s some interesting differences between t h e p a t t e r n s of unconditional and conditional m a r r i a g e

rates.

Since t h e conditional r a t e s equal t h e unconditional

rates

divided by t h e p r o p o r t i o n never married, t h e conditional

rates

have

to

b e higher t h a n t h e unconditional rates. Nonetheless, i t i s somewhat s t a r t l i n g how much h i g h e r t h e y are, especially at older ages. The durable p a t t e r n of universal marriage in China implies t h a t women in t h e i r l a t e twenties who are not m a r r i e d as y e t have a high c h a n c e of getting married. Con- s i d e r a g e 25 through 28, f o r instance. A swath of d a r k s h a d e s r u n s a c r o s s Figures 2a and b, indicating conditional marriage rates ranging from 20 p e r c e n t

to

above 60 p e r c e n t , averaging a b o u t 40 p e r c e n t p e r y e a r . For e v e r y c o h o r t shown o n t h e map,

at

l e a s t ninety p e r c e n t of t h e women who were not m a r r i e d

at

a g e 25 got

m a r -

r i e d by t h e end of a g e 28.

Cohort p a t t e r n s along diagonals

are

more a p p a r e n t in Figure 2a than in Fig- u r e 1 ( o r smoothed Figure 2b). T h e r e is, of c o u r s e , a n overwhelming c o h o r t e f f e c t in t h a t virtually e v e r y o n e marries: s i n c e t h e unconditional marriage

rates

thus sum along c o h o r t diagonals

to

a number close

to

100 p e r c e n t , if t h e

rates are

l o w in

some

y e a r s they h a v e

to

b e h i g h e r in o t h e r y e a r s . But t h i s kind of e f f e c t , be- c a u s e i t i s compensatory r a t h e r t h a n p e r s i s t e n t , d o e s not show up on a Lexis map

as

a s t r o n g diagonal p a t t e r n . The conditional m a r r i a g e

rates

depicted in Figure 2, on t h e o t h e r hand, c a n follow persistently high or l o w t r a j e c t o r i e s .

Consider, f o r instance, t h e

t w o

c o h o r t s t h a t were a g e 20 in 1968 and in 1971.

The f i r s t c o h o r t e x p e r i e n c e d conditional m a r r i a g e

rates

above 30 p e r c e n t p e r y e a r until a g e 25 a n d a b o v e 40 p e r c e n t p e r y e a r from a g e 25

to

32. The second c o h o r t , in c o n t r a s t , e x p e r i e n c e d conditional m a r r i a g e

rates

below 20 p e r c e n t a t a g e s 20 and 21 a n d below 30 p e r c e n t

at

e v e r y o t h e r a g e e x c e p t a g e s 25 a n d 26.

This striking d i f f e r e n c e i s probably a t t r i b u t a b l e

to

t h e e f f e c t s of t h e family planning program implemented after 1970, which emphasized late marriage. The women who r e a c h e d

at

a g e 20 in 1968 were old enough in subsequent y e a r s t o

meet

t h e re- quirements for late marriage, defined in

m o s t areas as

m a r r i a g e

at

a g e 23

or

l a t e r ; t h e women who r e a c h e d a g e 20 in 1971, on t h e o t h e r hand, were strongly influenced by t h e emphasis o n delayed marriage.

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Figures 1 and 2 provide somewhat different p e r s p e c t i v e s on t h e e f f e c t s of period e v e n t s and t r e n d s , t h e smoothed map in Figure 2b providing a somewhat c l e a r e r p i c t u r e t h a n t h e noisier map in Figure 2a. The slumps in m a r r i a g e a r o u n d 1959 a s a r e s u l t of t h e G r e a t Leap Forward and concomitant famine and t h e subsequent slumps in t h e mid 1960's and mid 1970's a r e c l e a r l y r e f l e c t e d in t h e smoothed conditional rates, a s a r e t h e marriage booms of t h e 19501s, e a r l y and l a t e 1960's, and e a r l y 1980's. Figure 2b a l s o r e v e a l s t h e catch-up behavior of c o h o r t s t h a t have e x p e r i e n c e d low marriage r a t e s : note in p a r t i c u l a r t h e m a r r i a g e sloughs fol- lowed by marriage p e a k s along t h e diagonals s t a r t i n g at a g e 20 around 1960, 1 9 5 5 , and 1975. Also note on Figure 2b t h e narrowing o v e r time of t h e period of high conditional r a t e s of marriage: From 1952

to

1954, unmarried women in t h e e l e v e n y e a r period from a g e 1 9 through a g e 29 had a 30 p e r c e n t o r g r e a t e r c h a n c e of marriage p e r y e a r . In 1979 t o 1981, on t h e o t h e r hand, this period of intense

mar--

r i a g e activity w a s c o n c e n t r a t e d in t h e six y e a r s from a g e 2 3 through 28.

Figure 3 p r e s e n t s a Lexis map of Coale's estimates of t h e p r o p o r t i o n of women e v e r m a r r i e d from a g e s 15 t o 3 5 from 1950 t o 1982. The s h a r p s h i f t upward in a g e of f i r s t marriage i s vividly r e v e a l e d by t h e map. In 1950, fully half of Chinese women were married by a g e 1 8 and 90 p e r c e n t by a g e 22. In 1982, t h e median a g e of f i r s t m a r r i a g e had i n c r e a s e d t o a g e 22 and t h e 90 p e r c e n t level

was

not r e a c h e d until a g e 26. The map a l s o shows t h e continuing concentration of m a r r i a g e within a few y e a r s of age. In 1950, half of all f i r s t m a r r i a g e s o c c u r r e d

at

a g e s 1 7 , 1 8 , a n d 19; in 1982, half o c c u r e d

at

a g e s 20 through 23.

The n e a r universality of marriage in China i s evident on t h e map. For e v e r y c o h o r t more t h a n 97.5 p e r c e n t of t h e women were m a r r i e d by a g e 35, and f o r most of t h e c o h o r t s t h e t o t a l exceeded 9 9 p e r c e n t . The c o h o r t s f o r which more t h a n one p e r c e n t (but l e s s t h a n 2.5 p e r c e n t ) of t h e women were unmarried by a g e 3 5

were

t h e c o h o r t s 20 y e a r s old in 1955-6, 1958-9, 1962, and 1975; t h e s e c o h o r t s may h a v e been especially s e v e r e l y a f f e c t e d by t h e d i s t u r b a n c e s of t h e 1957 "movement against t h e r i g h t wing", t h e G r e a t Leap Forward in 1959-61, t h e Cultural Revolu- tion in t h e mid 19601s, and t h e mobilization of many school g r a d u a t e s

to

go t o moun- tain and r u r a l a r e a s in t h e l a t e 1960's and e a r l y 1970's. I t is somewhat puzzling, however, t h a t a d j a c e n t c o h o r t s were not similarly a f f e c t e d . Detailed examination of t h e impact of e x t e r n a l events on c o h o r t s may s h e d light on this, b u t t h e explana- tion may l i e in stochastic fluctuations

or

sampling e r r o r s . What is p e r h a p s most r e m a r k a b l e is t h a t despite t h e various c r i s e s from 1957 through t h e e a r l y 1 9 7 0 9 s , which disrupted many young people's m a r r i a g e and c a r e e r plans, n e a r l y all Chinese females continued t o g e t married.

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1950 1 960 1970 1980 Year

F i g u r e 3. P r o p o r t i o n e v e r - m a r r i e d , females a g e 15-35, China, 1950-1982.

Fertility Since 1940

F i g u r e 4 p r e s e n t s a Lexis map of Chinese f e r t i l i t y

rates

b y single y e a r of a g e f r o m 15

to

49 a n d from single y e a r of time from 1 9 4 0

to

1981. The map i s o n t h e same s c a l e as t h e p r e v i o u s maps: i t i s b i g g e r b e c a u s e t h e a g e a n d time axes are l o n g e r . The f e r t i l i t y rates are d e f i n e d as t h e number of women who g a v e b i r t h at a g e z in y e a r

t

divided by t h e t o t a l number of women of t h a t a g e

at

t h a t time.

The most s t r i k i n g f e a t u r e of t h e map i s t h e r a p i d d e c l i n e in f e r t i l i t y a f t e r 1970. This d e c l i n e i s well known a n d o f t e n summarized by t h e d r a m a t i c d r o p in t h e t o t a l f e r t i l i t y

rate:

in 1 9 7 0 t h e t o t a l f e r t i l i t y

rate

was 5.8; by 1 9 8 1 i t h a d f a l l e n 55 p e r c e n t

to

2.6. What t h e map g r a p h i c a l l y r e v e a l s i s t h e a g e p a t t e r n of decline.

Consider t h e a g e s w h e r e t h e f e r t i l i t y

rate

e x c e e d s 20 p e r c e n t . In 1 9 6 8 , t h i s p e r i o d of high f e r t i l i t y s t r e t c h e d f r o m a g e 20 t h r o u g h 37. By 1981, in c o n t r a s t , t h e p e r i o d of high f e r t i l i t y was c o n c e n t r a t e d from a g e 2 3

to

27. In 1 9 6 8 , m o r e t h a n 2 0 p e r c e n t of 20-year-olds a n d

more

t h a n 1 0 p e r c e n t of 40-year-olds g a v e b i r t h . By 1981, t h e f e r t i l i t y rate of 20-year-olds had fallen u n d e r 1 0 p e r c e n t a n d t h e f e r - tility rate of 40-year-olds h a d f a l l e n u n d e r 2 p e r c e n t . The p r e c i p i t o u s d e c l i n e in

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t h e ferti!ity c o n t o u r s a t o l d e r a g e s and t h e marked i n c r e a s e in t h e contours a t you.n.ger ages r e f l e c t t h e s u c c e s s of Chinese b i r t h c o n t r o l policy, inciuding t h e in- c r e a s e in a g e of f i r s t m a r r i a g e and, even more importantly, t h e widespread use of contraception.

The r a d i c a l narrowing of t h e period of high f e r t i l i t y was slightly r e v e r s e d in 1991 and t h e r e is some evidence of an i n c r e a s e in b i r t h s among 25 and 26 year-old women. n i s i s undoubtedly a r e s u l t of t h e N e w Y a r r i a g e Law announced in 1980 and t h e concomitant boom in marriages, especially among women in t h e i r mid- txenties.

The most conspicuous p e r i o d disruption on t h e map i s t h e trough in f e r t i l i t y in 1959-61. This coincides with t h e G r e a t Leap Forward and i s c o r r e s p o n d s t o a simi- l a r trough in m a r r i a g e r a t e s , e x c e p t t h a t m a r r i a g e

rates

tended t o b e lowest in 1959 whereas f e r t i l i t y r a t e s r e a c h e d t h e i r low point in 1961. The r e c o v e r y of fertility r a t e s from t h e i r d e p r e s s e d level in 1961 was dramatic: during t h e prolific a g e s between 2 3 and 29, f e r t i l i t y r a t e s r o s e from u n d e r 20 p e r c e n t p e r y e a r in 1 9 6 1 t o o v e r 3 0 p e r c e n t p e r y e a r i n 1 9 6 2 a n d o v e r 3 5 p e r c e n t p e r y e a r i n 1 9 6 2 .

The f e r t i l i t y d a t a p e r t a i n i n g t o e a r l i e r y e a r s , especially t h e y e a r s b e f o r e 1950, have t o b e i n t e r p r e t e d with caution since t h e y a r e r e c o n s t r u c t i o n s based on interviews t a k e n in 1982. The g e n e r a l p a t t e r n seems r e a s s u r i n g l y plausible: o v e r t h e c o u r s e of t h e 1940's and 1950's f e r t i l i t y

rates

were f a i r l y s t a b l e , with some tendency toward i n c r e a s e . This i s consistent with t r e n d s in improvements in living s t a n d a r d s , and t h e a b s e n c e of widespread c o n t r a c e p t i o n , during t h i s period.

Because m a r r i a g e almost inevitably p r e c e d e s childbearing in China, and be- c a u s e t h e r e have been s t r o n g fluctuations in m a r r i a g e

rates

by period and a marked upward s h i f t in t h e a g e of f i r s t marriage, w e c o n j e c t u r e d t h a t it would b e informative t o examine f e r t i l i t y

rates

f o r m a r r i e d women. W e used Coale's estimates of p r o p o r t i o n s e v e r m a r r i e d t o compute f e r t i l i t y

rates

among e v e r married women, a r e a s o n a b l e approximation in China

to

f e r t i l i t y r a t e s among married women since d i v o r c e and widowhood r a t e s are low and s i n c e t h e r e

are

relatively f e w widowed

o r

divorced women who d o not quickly remarry.'' Figure 5 displays a Lexis map of t h e r e s u l t s .

Note

t h a t t h e map r u n s from 1950 t o 1981, r a t h e r than from 1940 t o 1981, b e c a u s e m a r r i a g e d a t a were not available b e f o r e 1950.

''see Coale, op. c i t . , p. 55, and Y. Zeng, ' Y a r r l a g e and Marriage D i s s o l u t i o n i n China: A Marital S t a t u s L i f e Table Analysis", Voorburg, t h e Netherlands: Netherlands I n t e r u n i v e r s i t y Demographic I n s t i t u t e , Working Paper 57, 1985.

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1950 1960 1970 1980 Year

F i g u r e 5. Fertility rates of e v e r - m a r r i e d women a g e 15-49, China, 1950-1981.

A t o l d e r a g e s , t h e p a t t e r n s in Figure 5 are s i m i l a r t o t h e p a t t e r n s in Figure 4 , as might b e e x p e c t e d given t h e n e a r universality of m a r r i a g e in China by a g e 30 o r s o . The most s t r i k i n g d i f f e r e n c e between t h e maps in F i g u r e s 4 a n d 5 o c c u r s below a g e 20: f e r t i l i t y rates are high among m a r r i e d women u n d e r a g e 20, b u t o v e r a l l f e r t i l i t y rates are low a t t h e s e a g e s b e c a u s e r e l a t i v e l y few women are m a r r i e d .

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Thus t h e decline ir: f e r t i l i t y b e f o r e a g e 20 o v e r :he last t h r e e d e c a d e s c a n b e al- mos: entirely a t t r i b u t e d t o t h e i n c r e a s e in a g e of f i r s t m a r r i a z e .

The swath of b!ack a c r o s s t h e map in Figure 5 , c o n c e n t r a t e d between a g e s 19 and 26 and especialiy prominent a f t e r 1962, r e v e a l s t h e v e r y high levels of childbearing among married women a t t h e s e ages: f e r t i l i t y r a t e s in t h i s band a r e gen- e r a l l y above 35 p e r c e n t p e r y e a r , even a f t e r t h e implementation of t h e family planning program-later, l o n g e r , fewer-in t h e e a r l y 1970's. The g r e a t e r p e r - sistence of t h i s band t h a n t h e corresponding band in Figure 4 indicates t h e impor- t a n c e of fluctuations in m a r r i a g e r a t e s and t h e i n c r e a s e in a v e r a g e a g e of mar- r i a g e in determining f e r t i l i t y rates not only b e f o r e a g e 20, but a l s o during t h e peak y e a r s between a g e s 20 a n d 26 o r so. That is, t h e decline in f e r t i l i t y r a t e s among women in t h e i r e a r l y twenties c a n also b e largely a t t r i b u t e d t o t h e i n c r e a s e in a g e of f i r s t marriage.

Rural-Urban Differences

Roughly four-fifths of t h e Chinese population is classified as r u r a l ; t h e remaining fifth is w b a n . The d i f f e r e n c e s between t h e s e two populations are s o substantial t h a t s t a t i s t i c s were s e p a r a t e l y published on m a r r i a g e a n d f e r t i l i t y r a t e s f o r r u r a l and u r b a n areas.

Figures 6 and 7 p r e s e n t Lexis maps of r u r a l and u r b a n m a r r i a g e r a t e s . The maps are on t h e same s c a l e as previous maps; n o t e t h a t a g e r u n s

f r o m

15

to

35 and time s c a l e from 1950

to

1981. Because t h e rural population is 80 p e r c e n t of t h e

to-

t a l population, t h e r u r a l map is quite similar t o t h e map of t o t a l m a r r i a g e

rates

p r e s e n t e d in Figure 1. The i n t e r e s t of t h e r u r a l a n d u r b a n maps l i e s in t h e s t r i k - ing differences between t h e r u r a l a n d u r b a n p a t t e r n s .

The maps r e v e a l t h a t t h e upward s h i f t in a g e of f i r s t m a r r i a g e began e a f l i e r a n d h a s proceeded f u r t h e r in u r b a n t h a n in r u r a l areas. In 1981 r u r a l m a r r i a g e

rates

r e a c h e d nearly 20 p e r c e n t p e r y e a r a t a g e s 20 through 23; u r b a n m a r r i a g e

r a t e s peaked

at

more t h a n 20 p e r c e n t p e r y e a r a t a g e s 2 3 through 25.

In t h e mid 1960's and mid 19701s, u r b a n m a r r i a g e rates fell much more t h a n r u r a l r a t e s . In 1965, for i n s t a n c e , only a t a single y e a r of a g e , a g e 22, did urban m a r r i a g e

rates

exceed 1 0 p e r c e n t ; whereas in

rural

a r e a s , m a r r i a g e

rates

were above 1 0 p e r c e n t a t a g e 20, a b o v e 12.5 p e r c e n t

at

a g e 1 7 , and above 15 p e r c e n t a t a g e s 18 and 19. This d i f f e r e n c e between r u r a l and u r b a n a r e a s c a n b e a t t r i b u t e d , especially in t h e 19701s,

to

more successful family planning in u r b a n a r e a s . Con-

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. . . . . . . . . . . . .

, , . . . , , . , . , , . . , , , , . . , . . , , , , , , . , . , .

, . . , . .

. , , , , . . . ¹ ^. ^. ¹ ¹¹¹^m¹^,^.^.^.^.^,^,^,^.^,^.^. ¹^, ^,

. . . .

^,^.^,^.^.^.^.^,^,¹¹^,^.. , . , . , . . ^.^.^,^. ^. ^. ^~ ^.¹^\^.^,^. 1 . . , I , . , . . 1 a , . 1 . 1 . . I

. . .

I . , . , . . , . . . . . . , . . 1 1 . . . . . . .

19-50 1960 1970 1980

Year

F i g u r e 6. R u r a l f i r s t m a r r i a g e r a t e s , f e m a l e s a g e 15-35, C h i n a , 1950-1981.

1950 1 960 1970 1980

Year

F i g u r e 7. U r b a n f i r s t m a r r i a g e r a t e s , f e m a l e s a g e 15-35, C h i n a , 1950-1981.

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versely, t h e N e w Y a r r i a g e Law announced in 1980 seems t o have increased u r b a n marriage r a t e s more substantially than r u r a l m a r r i a g e r a t e s , u r b a n r a t e s rising above 20 p e r c e n t p e r y e a r in t h e peak a g e s of marriage and r u r a l r a t e s remaining below 20 p e r c e n t p e r y e a r a t all ages. Restrictions by local a u t h o r i t i e s on m a r - r i a g e were especially pronounced in urban a r e a s ; t h e N e w Marriage Law in e f f e c t relaxed t h e s e r e s t r i c t i o n s by permitting women t o m a r r y after a g e 20.

A s shown by t h e maps in Figures 8 and 9 , p a t t e r n s of f e r t i l i t y in urban and r u r a l areas of China were roughly comparable in t h e 1950's. Indeed, during this decade t o t a l u r b a n f e r t i l i t y f!uctuated between 80 p e r c e n t and 100 p e r c e n t of total r u r a l fertility. A f t e r 1960 t h e p a t t e r n s s h a r p l y d i v e r g e , with u r b a n f e r t i l i t y falling f u r t h e r and more rapidly than r u r a l f e r t i l i t y . In t h e 19'70's and e a r l y 19801s, total u r b a n f e r t i l i t y was just under half of total r u r a l f e r t i l i t y .

The biggest d i f f e r e n c e between u r b a n and r u r a l a g e p a t t e r n s of f e r t i l i t y lies in t h e tendency f o r u r b a n women t o have children in t h e i r l a t e twenties whereas r u r a l women have children throughout t h e i r twenties. S i n c e 19'75, f e r t i l i t y

rates

above ten p e r c e n t p e r y e a r have been c o n c e n t r a t e d in u r b a n areas between a g e s 25 and 28, w h e r e a s similarly high rates of r u r a l f e r t i l i t y have been concentrated between a g e s 2 1 and 29. In both u r b a n and rural areas t h e r e h a s been a r a d i c a l d e c r e a s e in childbearing above a g e 30 and a substantial d e c r e a s e b e f o r e a g e 20, although t h e s e p a t t e r n s of d e c r e a s e are a p p a r e n t e a r l i e r and h a v e proceeded f u r t h e r in u r b a n areas.

Shaded c o n t o u r maps of Lexis s u r f a c e s of Chinese m a r r i a g e and f e r t i l i t y r a t e s provide a useful supplement t o s t a n d a r d modes of g r a p h i c a l presentation and analysis. The Lexis maps c l e a r l y and efficiently display both p e r s i s t e n t global and prominent local p a t t e r n s , simultaneously o v e r a g e and time. The maps facilitate visualization and h e n c e d e e p e r comprehension of p a t t e r n s t h a t may h a v e previously been only hazily understood. William P l a y f a i r , t h e p i o n e e r of graphical methods f o r presenting s t a t i s t i c a l d a t a , argued t h a t with a good visual display "as much information may b e obtained in five minutes as would r e q u i r e whole days t o imprint on t h e memory, in a lasting manner, by a t a b l e of figures."13 The t e n Lexis maps 1 3 ~ i l ~ a n Playfair, The Cbmmercial and h l i t i c a l Atlas, 3rd edition, London: J. Wallis, 1801, p.xi1, quoted in C.A. a n d S.E. Schmid, Handbod: of Graphic R e s e n t a t i o n , 2nd edition, New York: Wiley, 1974.

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1950 1 960 1970 1980 Year

Figure 8. Rural fertility

rates,

females a g e 15-49, China, 1950-1981.

presented in this p a p e r summarize more than 10,000 different numerical values in a memorable, revealinq way.

The maps clearly display t h e long-term t r e n d s in Chinese marriage and fertility: a g e of f i r s t marriage h a s shifted upward by about f o u r

years

and fertility has dramatically declined. especially before age 20 and a f t e r age 30. The maps also r e v e a l t h e substantial impact of disruptions associated with t h e Great Leap For- ward, t h e Cultural Revolution, and t h e mobilization of urban school graduates f o r

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1950 1 960 1970 1980 Year

Figure 9. Urban fertility r a t e s , females age 15-49, China, 1950-1981.

work in rural and mountainous a r e a s , a s w e l l

as

t h e increase in marriage and fertility associated with t h e N e w Marriage

Law

announaed in 1980.

Because t h e maps display a g e and time simultaneously, t h e effect of long-term trends and short-term disturbances on t h e age-composition of marriage and fertility can b e readily seen. Marriage continues

to

occur largely within a five y e a r period of age, although this period has shifted from 15-19

to

20-24. Childbearing has been drastically ooncentrated in t h e ages from 2 1

to

28, childbearing

at

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younger a g e s being reduced as a r e s u l t of l a t e r m a r r i a g e and childbearing

at

older a g e s being reduced by widespread contraception. Urban p a t t e r n s are increas- ingly diverging from

rural

p a t t e r n s , with l a t e r a g e s of f i r s t m a r r i a g e and f e r t i l i t y , and f e r t i l i t y

rates

only about half as high

as rural rates.

Amidst t h e turbulent change, two s t r i k i n g r e g u l a r i t i e s p e r s i s t . Marriage, although delayed, remains virtually universal by a g e 35, and f e r t i l i t y among

mar-

r i e d women younger than 26 remains

as

high as i t h a s been o v e r t h e l a s t t h i r t y or f o r t y y e a r s . Indeed, between ages 19 a n d 26 a b o u t a t h i r d of m a r r i e d women b e a r a child e a c h y e a r .