Wir schaffen Wissen – heute für morgen

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Wir schaffen Wissen – heute für morgen

CHania, 26 May 2014

53^rd Meeting of the EWGCFM, Chania, 22^nd May 2014

Alternative Low carbon electricity pathways under a

European nuclear phase-out – Achievement of climate goals Rajesh Mathew Pattupara

Paul Scherrer Institute, Switzerland

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• Motivation – European nuclear phase-out and its consequences

• Overview of the CROSSTEM Model

• Scenarios & Key Assumptions

• Preliminary results

• Conclusions

Outline

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• Low carbon pathway for electricity – EU Roadmap 2050

• “Nuclear Renaissance” – Switzerland and France to continue with its nuclear program. Italy to have 25% of net generation from nuclear by 2030. Germany to extend life times of existing plans¹.

• Fukushima Accident – Socio-political consequences

• Nuclear phase-out

• Germany by 2022

• Switzerland by 2034

• Italy to continue with its nuclear moratorium

• France to reduce share from 75% to 50% by 2025 (?)

. 1. http://www.world-nuclear.org

European Nuclear phase-out - Background

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• Alternative supply options – Germany substituting nuclear power with coal based generation → 43% (2010) to 52%(2013)

• Green house gas (GHG) reductions – Complete de-carbonization of power sector by 2050

.

Alternative low carbon sources of electricity

• Technical, Economical and Social challenges and uncertainties

European Nuclear phase-out - Background

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• CROSs border Swiss TIMES Electricity Model

• Austria (AT), France (FR), Germany (DE), Italy (IT) and Switzerland (CH).

• TIMES modelling framework – Bottom up,

Perfect foresight, cost optimization framework

• Time horizon: 2010 – 2070

• An hourly timeslice (288 timeslices)

• Detailed reference electricity system with resource supply, renewable potentials and

demands for 5 countries (defined exogenously)

• Calibrated for electricity demand and supply data between 2000-2010

• Endogenous electricity import / export based on costs and technical characteristics

20 10

201 1- 201 2

201 3- 201 7

203 3- 203 7

2068-2073 Milesone year 2070

Overview of CROSSTEM Model

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• Reference Scenario (REF) – No specific constraints on technology

choice, nor any emission targets. Existing nuclear fleet of CH, DE and FR can be replaced.

• “No Nuclear” Policy Scenario(NoNUC) – Nuclear policies of the 5 countries implemented. Nuclear phase-out in CH by 2034, DE by 2022, and reduction in share of nuclear in FR to 50% by 2025.

• Climate Scenario (CLI) – NoNUC scenario with a cap on the total CO₂ emission from electricity generation is applied across all regions. Level of decarbonisation to reach 60% of 1990 levels by 2030, 95% by 2050.

2. EU Roadmap 2050 - http://ec.europa.eu/energy/energy2020/roadmap/doc/com_2011_8852_en.pdf

Scenarios

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Key Assumptions

• Electricity Demand – AT, DE, FR and IT demands from EU Trends to 2050 (Reference scenario). CH demands from BAU scenarios in the Swiss Energy Strategy 2050.

• Trade with “fringe regions” – Historical limits applied

• CO2 price – European ETS prices implemented (SES 2050, Bfe)

• Fuel Prices – International fuel prices from WEO 2010.

• Copper Plate regions – No transmission and distribution infrastructure within each country. Interconnectors between regions, with no trade loss.

• Endogenous trade limits – Based on historical trends. Net importers cannot become net exporters and vice versa. Not applied to CLI

.

Key assumptions

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Results

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Electricity generation mix – 5 countries aggregated

-1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000

2010 2020 2035 2050 2020 2035 2050 2020 2035 2050

Base REF NoNUC CLI

PJ

Net Import Wood Waste & Biogas Wind

Solar Geothermal Oil Gas-CCS Gas (Flex) Gas (CHP) Gas (Base) Coal-CCS Coal Nuclear Hydro (P) Hydro (D) Hydro (R) Pumps Total Demand

Aggregated Results

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Load Curves

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CLI – Summer Weekday - 2050

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Load Curves – CLI - Summer Weekday 2050

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0 5 10 15 20 25 30

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

0 4 8 12 16 20

Rp/kWh

GW

CH: SUM-WK (2050)

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

0 4 8 12 16 20

Rp/kWh

GW

DE: SUM-WK (2050)

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Load Curves – CLI - Summer Weekday 2050

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0 5 10 15 20 25 30

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

0 4 8 12 16 20

Rp/kWh

GW

FR: SUM-WK (2050)

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

0 4 8 12 16 20

Rp/kWh

GW

IT: SUM-WK (2050)

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Load Curves – CLI - Summer Weekday 2050

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0 5 10 15 20 25 30

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

0 4 8 12 16 20

Rp/kWh

GW

AT: SUM-WK (2050)

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Load Curves – CLI - Summer Weekday 2050

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- 100 200 300 400 500 600

2010 2020 2035 2050 2020 2035 2050 2020 2035 2050

Base REF NoNUC CLI

Mt CO2

Switzerland Austria Italy France Germany

CO₂ emissions – Regional disaggregation

CO2 emissions

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-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

2010 2020 2035 2050 2020 2035 2050 2020 2035 2050

Base REF NoNUC CLI

Rp/kWh

Heat credit Trade Balance Taxes/Levy Decommissioning Fixed O&M Variable O&M Capital

Fuels

Net electricity cost

Electricity generation costs – Cost breakup (Rp/kWh)

10% 12%

11%

22%

29%

34%

Cost Results

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Limitations & Uncertainties

• CROSSTEM is not a pure dispatch model.

• Modelling of representative days – Overall simplifications

• T&D infrastructure not explicitly modelled.

• Trade with fringe regions

• Model assumes perfect information, perfect foresight, well functioning markets and economically rational decisions – Optimal solution for 5 countries together, not for each country

Model Limitations

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• Model of the electricity system of Switzerland and its neighbouring countries over a long term horizon combined with dispatch aspect completed.

• A range of alternative low carbon electricity generation pathways for the five countries has been explored.

• Decarbonisation of the power sector is plausible, but significant investments necessary, along-with higher market liberalisation → market coupling

• Early uptake of renewables & deployment of CCS technology vital to achieve stringent CO2 emissions reduction targets.

• More sensitivities required to analyse impacts of fringe region trade, trade limit, CCS potentials, renewable potentials

Conclusions

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Thank you for your attention !!!

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Energy Economics Group

Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis

General Energy Research department & Nuclear Energy and Safety Research Department Paul Scherrer Institute, Switzerland